Is Crypto Ready for the Big Leagues? | Roundup

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yeah I mean orthogonal to eth it's like you know eth is the uh eth you know kind of Supply overhang Mount goau is the BTC overhang I think like to get to the mainstream all these assets are going to have to deal with these large unlocks and I think you know Black Rock was out today saying um that there won't be another crypto ETF for you know a long time I don't know what that means maybe like a year or two but you know Salon is going to have to deal with this too with the 41 Mill milon tokens that were unlocked from the FTX which probably more like 50 million today just given the staking yield so like every single asset need needs to deal with their supply overhang um it's just not worth a ton of intellectual effort to try to

decode where things are today in terms of where they're going to be in the future hey everyone this episode is brought to you by say after several months of effort say's V2 launch is live whooop let's go and introduce the first high performance parallelized VM to the world stay up to date by following say say that's SEI Network or you can experience the speed firsthand at say. today thank you very much for being a partner to bcrb say hey everyone this episode is brought to you by real a new permissionless L2 built on the arbitrum orbit stack by defin natives for defin natives for tokenized real world assets it's very cool chain highly recommend that you go check it out and they just started their Rewards program so you can type in re. al/ rewards you can use the code in the show notes below all right

thanks everyone I'm with the show all right everyone welcome back to another episode of bell curve before we jump in quick disclaimer the views expressed by my co-host today are their personal views and they do not represent the views of any organization with which the co-hosts are associated with uh nothing in the episode is construed or relied upon as Financial technical tax legal or other advice you know the deal now let's jump into the episode all right everyone welcome back to another uh Roundup episode of B curve you Michael's one and two Vance how you Fell's doing doing good EF is looking strong Grace sces B speed running the uh the Redemption process so it's looking

good yeah um mean it's just a massive Victory to get the uh I still kind of can't believe that we got the ETF the ETFs when we did um and I I was talking to I don't know if you guys know Quinn Quinn Thompson from leer um we just recorded an episode with him earlier today and he was just describing how uh I think basically a bunch of people were hedging their e exposure with um Futures and so they sort of Unwound that trade once the ETF went live and it sort of spedrun a bunch of the outflows so feel like we kind of just moved a bunch of that Supply out of the way and it should be you know pretty clear skies from here I don't know you guys gry scale put out a chart let's see if I can find it quickly um but it was a

the gbtc and eth relative outflows per day uh and I mean it's speedr running what happened um I can't find it but it's it's moving a lot faster than what was expected based off of the gbt gbtc outflows um and I wouldn't be surprised if we see this thing basically done in the next uh Vance and I were talking about this yesterday probably the next 10ish trading days um is where you will probably see this thing stop uh or or you know generally outflows begin to to curtail just like they saw uh after I think it was about 20 trading days so about twice as long uh for gbtc um seems

like it's moving about twice as fast the uh the other thing that's kind of always remarkable to me is just like the uh just like the lack of like research or thoughtfulness in terms of like what happened with the Bitcoin ETF okay what's going to happen with the eth ETF and really of the the difference there is no difference right now um when Bitcoin went live and grayscale was selling their gbtc eth BTC went up when when gbtc went live and was selling all their BTC eth BTC went up now that eth is selling all their eth eth BTC went down and so really what you're playing for is the next you know in two weeks

the next year or two of flows that's kind of when you'll know what the steady state is um and and I think I I just read that uh Mount gaau is like only 39% done Distributing no more more than that now uh bitstamp just uh put out something a tweet saying that they have distributed to all of their creditors and Kraken did this two days ago I think together those were like 2third of the mount dox uh distributions yeah I mean orthogonal to eth it's like you know eth is the uh eth you know kind of Supply overhang Mount goau is the BTC overhang I think like to

get to the mainstream all these assets are going to have to deal with these large unlocks and I think you know Black Rock was out today saying um that there won't be another crypto ETF for you know a long time I don't know what that means maybe like a year or two but you know Salon is going to have to deal with this too with the 41 million tokens that were unlocked from the FTX estate which probably more like 50 million today just given the staking yield so like every single asset need needs to deal with their supply overhang um it's just not worth a ton of intellectual effort to try to decode where things are today in terms of where they're going to be in the future yeah and the salana one um you in that discount in that unlocking

schedule April 2025 was the big unlock where uh out of the four years of the future unlocking that was going to be linear over the next four years years monthly there was a big unlock I think 13% of it was unlocking um April 2025 yeah well I think there was a um the THX podcast on the Empire feed there there's a guy at Chief Ina who came on who I really liked his take here um who kind of laid out a pretty bullish thesis for eth at the current moment which is just I don't know I think that I I've been thinking this recently because there's been a lot of um like you know push back on the rollup Centric road map for eth and stuff like that and I just like don't really think that matters

very much right now I I think like once the major like my sort of framework for this is once there's going to be a small handful of crypto assets to graduate to the majors and get trafi buyers and then the price Discovery and the narrative is going to kind of like gradually shift towards that side of things like that's what's in the driver seat for Price Discovery here so all of this like discourse and semantic arguments that happen on crypto Twitter when it comes to like eth price Discovery is probably irrelevant and the point that chiefing made um that I thought was actually pretty interesting one was like okay even if there is some validity to the idea that like it's a little bit in between narratives right now it's like you know they're about to get access to the Black Rock infidelity sales forces

of the world like they're gonna come up with a great narrative like no one does it better than those guys so you it's almost an opportunity like get in before you know Bitcoin does this all like it you know through the years as well used to be payments now it's store value like just get in before the next narrative gets formed here and it's like an there was a uh I haven't heard from him in a while but uh do you guys remember how from nrd um yeah what happened did he stopped tweeting he used to rip tweet all the time yeah who knows hope I hope he's doing well out there um but one of the things that he was kind of the first to really kind of push the narrative on was that it's not value that drives price is actually flows the drive price

and I think that this is kind of what you're saying Mike which is it's it doesn't matter what the narrative is what the business model is like what's happening it what really matters at at least in the like medium term let's think in the next like quarters to years is what is what are the flows and let's just break down you know ethereum for instance 40% of ethereum is locked up either in bridges or in staking contract or in or in the staking contract um or being used as a collateral asset within D5 um the other thing that was announced yesterday at Bitcoin 2024 was the head of digital assets from Black Rock said likely by the end of this year or likely this year you'll start to see the wirehouses the

um managed Ira money the $18 trillion dollars of of assets that you know these ETFs were supposedly going to unlock those will come online for the Bitcoin ETF sometime this year is basically what he said um and so that's obviously an attractive proposition from a clo perspective um 85 per I think is what Kathy Wood said uh of the activity that's happening in the Bitcoin ETF so far has just been self-directed money it hasn't been third party managed money once again all the money is in the third party manag money and then going back to it is you know with ethereum uh you don't have the same 40% locked or 40% you know Stak 40% used um in some way

shape or form and I think that that will have an amplification effect um because you would assume that after they move from you know digital gold they'll move on to the the App Store of Finance as an as an asset category so I think broadly the flows are are what will drive uh attractive price action and then as we've seen before the flex the reflexivity takes over you see you know price Drive narrative Drive price um so I I would say that that's generally how I'm looking at the market over the next 6 to 12 months it's also worth talking about like the institutional flows are what Ethan Bitcoin playing for and like that's how you take like a trillion dollar asset like Bitcoin make it a three or four trillion dollar asset like

you just need those institutional flows to get there and I think like ditto for eth like how do you take a I think 400 billion asset and make it you know one to two trillion and then you kind of look at like okay they've hit this escape velocity of some sort like who's who's competing over the the retail Flows In crypto today like obviously Salon is is capturing a lot of those but like we haven't even seen like what I think most people believe are going to be the two main l1s this cycle launch and like I would Define the two real l1s this cycle is like Bara and monad and those are just chains with like real differentiated ecosystem differentiated philosophical takes on how you construct a chain and how you drive fees towards

it and like it's going to be I think kind of a dog fight for these flows but at the same time at roughly the same price levels in the last cycle you know we had three or four l1s at like 100 billion FTV you had avac you had Luna you had uh you know salana you had I forget you know the the phone you know the foam acronym which was super cringe but like you know for us um salana flipping eth you know we have salana allocation in our fund uh the ecosystem r large it's like Can it can it go two or 3x to flip youth maybe but like what about the100 billion Target that's on on his back you know like which L1 can

capture a a fraction of those flows it's going to be interesting to see and I think we saw a little bit of that with Celestia probably last year when it made that run to 20 billion FTV like I would expect more of that with the retail flows uh to take place especially if there's guidance for no sole ETF you know in the the next one or two years I've got a question for you guys uh just as so here's something that uh i' I've been thinking about recently because I've I've talked to some of the um like the L Bitcoin l2s and some of the new l1s and I'm there's people have very different approaches to BD for like getting apps to their ecosystem and like something common that I've started to

see is like Hey we're we kind of want to take an opinionated stance and say like these are the type of entrepreneurs or apps that we want to see building in our ecosystem and I would just be curious what you guys advise either like the be chains of the world or l2s that you might have invested in or anything like that because on the one hand I think there's a fine line between look you have to differentiate somehow and say like these are our people and this is how we're going to attract entrepreneurs to build apps but on the other hand like I can see being like overly judgmental and being like no we only want these type of apps and like ignoring a lot of the like not as productive type things but that's where all the activity is so how do you guys think about uh like l2s

or L1 should go about branding themselves should they be opinionated about the apps that are building on their ecosystem should they not what do you think about that whole question mark I I think um probably like you know we're building for the next billion users is like probably overused and over concentrated on versus like can we make like a Crypton native app ecosystem that is philosophically different that is you know built for users that doesn't leak fees like that that's the bare thesis not to harp on it too much but like if you build a defi ecosystem and a chain that's allinone you know you kind of see that with bar you kind of see that with Hyper liquid would like I would assume there's differentiated market for that relative to like we're going to build

Snapchat on chain um and so you know I would I would say that I would focus as an L1 on a different philosophical alignment more in trining more fees going back to the stakeholders of the chain less fragmentation like the the mass adoption chain I just don't think you can aim towards Mass adoption and and like get yourself there on purpose like you need to start with the huge two and a half trillion dollar industry that we have already like you can make a big outcome from that and then l2s I think are different than l1's um they're more riing on the the base chain and and frankly like how much tvl you can bring

over in their denominated native asset I'll tell I'll tell you one thing that's usually a negative signal which is if you're getting as an app develop developer if you're getting an allocation of tokens to move your app over into that ecosystem system that's a red flag and it usually is B chains attracting B minus players who are doing that strategy and it just is a it's a reflexive reflectively negative signal um and so I I would say you know our advice would be to steer clear of those types of situations as much as possible do you get the sense that that still happens pretty frequently 100% I do too and it's like everyone's like well we pay a little bit but these

guys pay way more like oh we got we just got a $4 million Grant of XYZ token to build on that chain that nobody's using do you think that's a good idea absolutely not yeah this is you know what this reminds me of there's a Timeless like joke post by I think it's Joseph dong about like what it's like to run a dow as like a lemonade stand where it's like you have to vote on this and your friend pays you you know 500 bucks to open on the other sidewalk and it's like yeah that's can link it in the show notes but it's pretty pretty Timeless um I I do want to shout out our um uh so jeto um unveiled their uh staking product um I know you guys are investors in jto I have a small bag of jeto myself

so disclosure there but yeah I mean I uh very definitely not framework sized bag but uh yeah I mean they unlaunched their reaking product this week um I've Al like Lucas and Co have been on belr many times I'm actually interviewing him right after this um yeah they unveiled their staking product and I you know it's pretty amazing the story of jeto I think just they started with me which is a really difficult thorny problem as we all know to tackle I think they correctly intuited the link in between me and liquid staking before a lot of other companies sort of figured out that link and now they're building on that Advantage with reaking and I think they have a really fresh take on it um they unlaunched they they unveiled um the

basic framework which is there's kind of like this vault platform which makes it really easy for risk allocators uh to basically allocate funds um to different avss and then an ABS platform which makes it really easy to spin up your own sort of backend abs and my sense is what's cool about this is that they didn't just say hey I want to launch like a reaking platform because it's a sexy thing to do they're deep in the bowels of me and they have a really good understanding of the problem that as you try to scale a network and deal with all this traffic and do and these really thorny issues you have a lot of centralizing infrastructure and they were like hey it would be really cool if we could decentralize some of this centralizing stuff um which just feels

very real um so I don't know um what do you guys think in general of like the GTO play uh I mean so so to put it um as like a really simplistic version of describing what this means it's uh goo started off as the Lio of salana but what Lio of salana actually meant was It was kind of the Lio plus flash PODS of salana because they were covering both the staking of soul in the form of goto soul but they were also block building which gave them the ability to earn the tip Revenue which is the me within salana uh more activity within salana means more me which means you know more Revenue actually flows towards jeto than in some days salana itself what this

change uh enables is this is now the restating platform as well and so you know chose your restating protocol the one with the most tvl is igen so maybe it's Lio uh flash Bots Plus igen for uh for the salana EOS system but I think you know taking a 10,000 foot view perspective here is um to your point Mike this is impeccable execution I think by Lucas and the team um it's understanding the idea maze better and ahead of anybody else in the ecosystem and being able to operate and move in directions by not only understanding where you are and what gives you an advantage today but also understanding where open areas of competition could arise which enable you

to have an unfair advantage in those new vectors of competition and frankly like the only analogy that I can think of here from an entrepreneurial perspective is what Mark Zuckerberg was doing in the 2010s with Facebook where uh he was looking at okay it used to be just like a profile page basically like an online dating form for for social uh didn't even have a mobile application that was mobile native it was a web- based application on mobile went out and bought Instagram went out and bought WhatsApp and completely blew away you know the hole that was Mobile in the entire competitive strategy of Facebook and I think of that is what the team is doing right now you know they they understand you know what has given them the the beach head that they have the

strategy that they have um but they know where to go and where to to shore up you know strategic imperatives that will just enable them to be a behemoth going forward um so yeah hats off to them and making this move yeah I mean it's it's a very different ecosystem in terms of its construction and just how new it is Salona um and so there is room for someone to be all of these things the igen the Lio The Flash Bots um and like we track it like Geo trades like levered Soul as a result just because it is you know it's it's kind of like the bar thing where it's like it's just enshrining all of these fees with within goo but it is very representative of the economics of salana um which you know frankly are growing and favorable and

interesting and I'm not surprised to see you know a team like goo take off that has just been grinding for so long and eating glass and and real Believers in this whole ecosystem I'm interested to see what the product Market fit looks like for soul reaking versus eth um like there was a you we did a couple podcast episodes with Lucas back in the day just talking about some of the different Dynamics in liquid staking on ethereum versus salana and are some pretty big differences both in terms of path dependency and why the penetration of something like Li is much deeper in ethereum than it is in salana but I I kind of wonder what the differences are going to be in between salana and ethereum and one difference that ethereum has versus salana is uh

like ethereum is much more modular and so there's much more room for in infrastructure and you've kind of it's a much more heterogeneous sort of security apparatus you have a bunch of like different sequencers and data availability layers and they're all different and they're all kind of opportuni for restak and so I kind of Wonder with salana being a little bit more integrated what the opportunity set looks like and then there's this kind of like squishy moneyness of Soul versus eth uh the asset um I I also think one thing we've been doing a reaking season the interview portion of this show but I also think that a lot of Protocols are going to want to restake with their own tokens as well um like I think that's going to be huge so these are all like pretty open questions but acrosss

they're open questions too like we're curious how reaking on eth will play out um yeah but it will be interesting no doubt yeah I think so as well so um I guess we'll have to see uh yeah hats off to the GTO team for executing on that and shipping it though um very good stuff hey everyone this episode is brought to you by SE SE believes that the evm is here to stay but they also believe that the evm and its current iteration lacks performance and scalability for developers say's recent V2 upgrade has introduced the first high performance parallelized evm which coupled Lightning Fast block times and finality of just 390 milliseconds that is sub 400 millisecond block time very very cool

this V2 upgrade unlocks a new design space with 100x the throughput even the fastest evm L2 so if you're a developer who spent most of your time building in the evm you can do you can now build on say faster block times much quicker finality you get a lot of the uh benefits of the environment that you're using to so if you're a developer definitely go check them out and thank you very much say for sponsoring this episode hey everyone this episode is brought to you by real re. they're a new permissionless L2 built on arbitrum orbit for tokenized rwas so basically they've got this portfolio of real world assets that actually exist out there that generate yields they import them on chain and find ways to reward their users very creatively uh so one of the cool things about real is that it's the

first L2 where 100% of profits from transaction fees and fees from prot calls deployed onto the chain acrew back to the L2 governance token and currently I mentioned this at the top of the episode but they have a reward PR program going on for early users of the chain where 10% of the rdwa tokens are being distributed which is very cool so you as a user you can go over there and provide concentrated liquidity trade borrow and leverage tokenized rwas including T bills real estate and tokenized basis trades so again head over to re. rewards and you can use the code found in the show notes here tell them that I sent you thanks real for making this possible all right I wanted to I well I guess there's not really much of a point in talking about cuz he hasn't

talked about it yet but uh Trump is speaking at the Bitcoin conference um which is is it tomorrow Saturday I think it's I believe it's tomorrow yeah so by the time this will have aired we will have heard his his talk uh well I will not have heard it because I will be on a plane to Ireland but uh but uh I'll catch the highlights on Twitter I mean just before we get to Trump specifically but did you see the comments from uh from RFK Jr yesterday at between 2024 he was at karate combat number one just shout out Nick Carter by the way shout out Nick Carter way to go holy moly um but uh RK Jr was in in the audience which in and of itself is

so a Girl by the way oh yeah they got a photo but um funny one one of the other announcers uh asked RFK Jr you know like hey what do you think of Bitcoin like why are you here and he was like well I came last year uh I really you know did some diligence and did some learning and I went home and I put most of my wealth into Bitcoin so I'm bought in uh and you know if memory serves Bitcoin was pretty low this time last year so I think RFK might be the most based uh presidential candidate uh even when we've got Trump uh with multiple nfts like two out of three uh are are

definitely crypto favorable crypto favoring um which is which is pretty bullish did you guys see that RFK Jr called he called for that the United States should buy $618 billion do worth of bitcoin which is a very specific number and what that number is is the gold Reserve that the United States States has so he thought it allegedly yeah allegedly uh so yeah pretty pretty base call I would say um I mean that's that's the rumor tomorrow right that there's gon to be some announcement there's this yeah so this is the rumor that Trump is going to

announce something like a strategic Bitcoin Reserve um other countries hold strategic reserves of currency mostly in US Dollars uh the United States holds gold um and there's been an argument uh or like an idea floated about potentially uh having a strategic Bitcoin Reserve so I'd just be curious obviously we're not going to know until he talks about it um I kind of doubt that he would announce it uh like why would you announce it live before you bought anything isn't that just but uh I me what do you guys think about the possibility of this actually being real in general I think it's probably real I I I don't think it's like putting a bid into BTC and like putting it in the treasury I think it's just not selling the rest of the doj

Holdings um so there's a mechanical difference but I I think you know once the first and and most important Global Central Bank has crypto on their balance sheet and has acknowledged it as such it's just going to open the Overton window for everyone else like you saw I think it was like the state of Wisconsin bought Bitcoin and then like M Michigan then New Jersey and then blah blah blah it's like scale that up by like a THX in terms of you know the market impact and I think that's kind of what the knock on flows from this could be but you know Trump wants a weaker dollar I think it makes sense in that framework to prioritize other assets on the central bank balance sheet same with JD

Vance one question and um I don't know I mean all of this news if we would have had one half of it in 2021 I mean where where would you predict prices be today otherwise like minimum okay but I think like you just are digesting all of this news in a very uncertain time where it's like oh is the presidential raise tied again does this matter is this going to happen um I think next week we'll have better polls on the candidacies of both and that's kind of when you'll actually price in and the last thing is like sure you we'd be at

100K and 10K if if this was happening in 2021 but you know we are working through the gbtc flows the E flows the GX flows like we're just chewing through this stuff and I'm I'm surprised we're as high as we are in in light of that like Michael and I were talking like where's where's BTC if GX flows come out like [ __ ] maybe like back down to 50 but the strength of this this asset class is is strong it's impressive the macro is pretty favorable at the moment I don't know if you guys saw Bill Dudley um who's a really influential ex um he he wrote an oped that the FED needs to cut rates uh now he WR a pretty influential one basically saying the opposite a

couple years ago at a very different time in the cycle but people like him because you know there's this old Trope about that that you know chair men and chair women can't speak honestly until they're actually out of the fed and so you know people listen when he writes an oped like that so I don't know I think it's just a sign of like G and how they're probably thinking about things but I mean next week's the the fomc I don't think there's any Cuts going to happen then I don't think so either no but you know I it's I think people get a sense it's like does it really matter if there's one or two or three 25 basis point Cuts I think it's just that rates have been high for a long time and people want to know the direction I mean look I I actually am going through the

process finally after you know First Republic transitioned to chase to like getting a different bank account um so finally sign the docs like in the last 48 hours but uh for a new bank account and and have a money market account attached with it it's like the money market account comes at 4.6% and all you got to do is like use it as your savings account and it like Auto balances if you're over under the 250k limit like there there's a there's an interesting kind of attractive uh model there and it made me think that okay what at what price point would it actually drive me and I'm I'm not a prototypical person to to use for this analysis but uh you know what what is

going to be the rate cut that drives most of the money that is now hitting all-time highs in money markets actually out of the money markets is it a 50 basis point cut is it 75 is it 100 like where do we actually start to see those flows of cash um because ultimately that's what you need for risk assets it's not just the fact that you're gonna have you know RI rate Cuts means terminal value goes up yes it but there also have to be flows you know to bring it back to our original conversation Point flows are what will dictate price in the shorter term and so where does that money come from who's the who's the net new buyer and and that's the big question my guess is it's going to be money money market Capital moving into assets and what's going to be that rate

cut price point where you start to see the 14 trillion dollars of money markets actually flow into a new category I don't know but you know even if it's 25 basis points it's like Okay cool so I go from 4.6 to 4.5 4.4 4.3 like it's not that big of a difference no oh you're right It's just tough to know right it's tough to there there is I mean it clearly matters right like 5% you know you just get 5% for doing nothing but holding your money in a bank account is Meaningful like it's definitely I think they're right that it's you know um stealing some of the money that otherwise could go to into the stock market or crypto or something like that um so I mean stealing is the

wrong word but you know what I mean um relative rebalancing yeah um so actually on on that same actually that maybe hold that thought about like what would it take for you to um you know allocate out of something like a money market fund I want to give a shout out actually to a um so a just uh they've got something in the works which is a there an agenomics update so this was uh published by seller um and this is building on some of the work uh which is a change to their a safety module called umbrella so basically I think it's actually a very cool um update um and here I'm gonna actually share my screen here a shout out to uh Sonia Kim one of the chefs at

steakhous uh for putting together this um this graphic but basically the way that it used to work with a a is just like uh they're they're a borrow lend protocol and so have to be concerned with bad debt right so let's say someone spins up a pool um and bad debt ends up getting created there has to be some sort of back stop um and historically what the back stop has been for a is um staked a um plus the treasury uh so the the challenge with that is one it kind of puts a little bit of a ceiling in it makes you question whether or not you want to own a right because in the event that um a had to actually make up some

bad debt they would have to sell a out into the market um which could cause this like negative reinforcing uh price cycle U the other thing is it's actually really expensive because because they're aware that this Dynamic might one day take place they have to pay a lot for secondary liquidity um and so it's kind of bad from both angles right like a has to pay out a bunch to incentivize the secondary liquidity um and they also you know investors probably handicap a the token because they know that there's this like black want event that might end up happening so what the umbrella proposal is is you know to simplify is they're changing what the reserve asset is to make it on a pool by poool basis uh a tokens so um now like let's say you are

you know contributing to a pool of like usdc uh rapde or something like that what you can do um when you get your interest token your like your a token which generates interest is you can opt into um staking it which gets you additional rewards but you're also acting as a back stop for that pool um and so what ends up happening there is instead of actually needing to sell a to make up the bad debt for like a a wrapped eth pool which might be a totally different token you can actually just because some people opted into being the back stop and earning rewards you can just burn some of the asset side of the balance sheet and level things out so it's actually like a pretty neat

mechanism and actually I guess the analogy would be Loosely in a bank right instead of having like the bank Surplus or like Equity uh Capital barar you bail you out you could be a depositor and say hey I know I'm getting like you know whatever measly percentage that I get in my a high old savings account but um I can I'm gonna opt into this additional level of risk uh and and get you know the bank would pay me out um more more yield and so yeah it's a pretty cool um it's a pretty cool update um and actually the a token responded pretty well um to it in general and I think this is on this General theme of these like defi 1.0 uh protocols that have just been chugging along and actually making

improvements and are generating cash flows like I don't know I think I know people have been calling for this for a while but I think these I think these sorts of Protocols are going to do well um into the future but I don't know what do you guys think so if there's bad debt basically you as an a token holder are taking on that RIS but you're earning like super proa rewards and interest to kind of like stay put right exactly yeah and I think you opt in by staking your a tokens exactly got it so in instead of it being you're staking your a which in this analogy would be something akin to like the bank Equity you're actually staking your like credit

or your like deposit receipt and you're saying hey I've deposited you guys are I'm earning a yield just by holding this thing which is the the a token but I actually want to earn more on the state this as the bat stop collateral to earn an additional yield yeah I mean it's uh I think it's a really good idea in theory where the bad debt is like a not so meaningful part of the total overall tvl and like you know percentage of a token market cap I don't think they'd have any you blowups that would like mean like 50% of the tvl is bad debt but you know if it gets any higher than like 20 or 30% I think that's where you as an a token holder

would be a little bit you know hesitant to probably stake uh it's like when you know SPF was was saying like you know hey deposit your your money in FTX and we're going to give you you know super high interest rates and and a few people actually did that and and not the same thing because there's transp Arcy and there's you know um more just information symmetry but yeah I think it's a good idea um I don't think the death spiral was ever really a concern for me but yeah I mean it's a step forward and these defi 1.0 Protocols are starting to to print cash and and turn it around and buy back their own token

and I think that's the the long-term prognosis for basically every protocol that that is going to be successful is you have to make these these these switches yeah it I I do think that it is it is preventing of more potential of a debt spiral just because it um you know you sell a people have staked a drives the price of a Down it like that's where you get the the reflexivity um and their slippage and like all that it like what I would um so to my T point I think what this does is it free up sort of the a token from being um you know beholden to being the the like line of last defense um which

is which is beneficial because you don't have to have a holders worry about that anymore and I think that they've gotten to the point of maturity now when that's the case and this is a fundamentally positive move in that direction what I think would be really interesting that we're also starting to see with some of these you know D5 1.0 tokens is actually having you know the revenues that are generated in excess of that back stop go towards the tokens themselves and I think that would be sort of the next um iteration of a of a protocol upgrade not to say that they're doing this or planning this or or changing anything um but I I would imagine that that would be sort of like phase two of making this thing um you know look and feel like some of the others that are that are

doing similar token models yeah so it that's exactly right and you know just like the other neat thing about this mechanism as well is it it matches assets and liabilities um like if you think of each of these pools is having its own balance sheet like um it it neatly does that you can also do it very quickly um whereas like the season sell model it's very slow you actually have to manually seize it sell it into the market you can just very automatically in a really automated way just do like a really quick burn um and like balance things back out so it's a more elegant mechanism and there's some like buyback program as well like they're going out into the market and buying some some actual a token so yeah it's just like this long fix of um like tokenomics on some of these older D5

protocols and you you know what would also be nice just now that like politics and you know regulation stuff is all up in the air I actually I I think I I was listening to this old like Microsoft episode um and actually one of the early challenges for Microsoft is that software wasn't protected under IP law like it just wasn't included right and they had to fight this out in courts for a number of years to change like the wording on like intellectual property legislation to include software um and so it's just really I just want to iterate to people it's very difficult to build like things that look like Equity value when the courts are and and and you know legislators aren't you know

being supportive um in creating Frameworks here so I think that's been one of the big things that's been missing in terms of actually creating value in some of these like older quote unquote less sexy you know D5 protocols and I I hope that will change relatively soon so agreed like where where do you guys land in terms of you know obviously we know how the Trump Vance Camp is um where where do you guys land in terms of where you think kind of like the net uh kamla ex vice president person whoever maybe uh will land in terms of crypto it's like there was the rumor that she was going to talk to bitcoin uh 2020 before that didn't go through apparently she uh

declined the offer um you know from from like a strategic standpoint I think it would make a lot of sense for her to Pivot towards the crypto industry because it cuts a lot of energy off from what you currently have with the the Republican campaign but I just don't know like obviously that wouldn't be genuine um it would feel like more of a a move or attack from a campaigning perspective not NE necessarily A regulating perspective um but I'm just curious your guys' thoughts better than Biden um but I mean I'm probably in the minority that I think kamla is a much

weaker candidate than Joe Biden so I don't think uh I'm not like currently thinking through like what does a Camala Harris Administration look like and like the reason I say that is you look at all the most recent polls and you know kamla does a little bit better with with African-Americans you know a little bit better with Hispanics those are each 10% of the electorate in terms of people who vote but the place she does much much worse with is is Caucasian people and you know there's 150 million votes basically you know 2020 2016 about 100 million of those are are Caucasian

people so it's great that um you know she's doing better in the minorities but like what did Obama do differently he won 96% of the African-American vote she's not even close to that and then he got all the Boomers to vote for him too that are white and you know until that changes like I think she's going to lose in an absolute Landslide and I don't know what a CALA Harris Administration looks like the early tea leaves are that it would be more favorable to business but but she's got 100 days to Define her policy platform it's going to be really tough to do that while Trump is just playing these 2019 2020 you know candidate videos for her in the primary

uh about you know all this pretty far-left stuff so you know she's got a lot of work to do but anybody but Biden is kind of my Mantra I I would much prefer her to Biden in a world where we had all those theoretical you know choices yeah I mean look the the ology that I was thinking through is like basically what has happened is um you had you know this is the the NBA finals and in the last you know five minutes you had a massive comeback from down like 15 points to now they they just Sun a three-pointer and and the game is tied going into the end of regulation and it's like now we get to start overtime and overtime means you're resetting the

entire game and you got another set of set of minutes on the clock but it does kind of you know ask the question of like what is the platform going to be what are the what are what are going to be the new policy initiatives I mean I could she has also seen kind of basically the entire Republican Playbook and is now going to be able to counter position against it um like there there's a lot of interesting stuff that I think will start to come out Advance your point on polls but also just like platform in the next week or two um that I think will be sort of the defining characteristics here as to you know where indust start to line up um and yeah it's going to be fascinating I mean maybe a little prediction here but in two weeks time

we're probably going to see Kamala losing by the same or Worse margins than Biden because really Biden's strength was those white voters those old Boomers that hate Trump my parents ain't Trump I think Michael's parents are the same but you know it's just a totally different dynamic but you know it's possible to both love the Boomers and also hate them in some ways but they're a huge piece of the electorate they're basically all that matters um and if she can't win those folks it's it's gonna be an absolute car crash for her is my guess and so the Camala bullishness that we're seeing today I wouldn't put a ton of

stock in that I mean this is also the Cala honeymoon period um where everybody's coming out in support you know you have that that cheesy video of the call from the Obamas and then the other thing that's funny is they're like and now just wait for the DNC bump it's like bro this is the bump this is it there are some early T leaves that um there will in the head-to-head race it is it is a little bit closer it's not you know in in favor of slightly ahead of uh where Biden was in in most of the Swing States um but

the one variable that is still in play is how does RFK Jr affect those polls and at least initially in the non head-to-head it seems like he is actually pulling more from Trump than he is from kamla which will be interesting to see if that continues to play out in in the next couple of weeks granted he's got to get on the ballots for him to actually be a factor in those States uh um but it does kind of beg the question it seems like he going into um prior to Biden dropping out he was pulling more from Biden than he was from Trump that may reverse would be would be my early prediction you know what resonated with me I was just trying to pull this

article up but John Stewart put this thing out was like the are the reporters even reading their own articles like it's whiplashing around so much you know you you see the the coverage like before you know the Trump assess attempt post I mean just how much it's changed and then you know pre I mean within days the the the flip-flop of opinion here has just made it so difficult to get a sense of what's going on and I get it like no one really knows what it's going on all these things are happening in real time and people are changing their opinions but it's just felt like the coverage on this has been really chaotic and whips sawy and I agree with you I just I don't think we know much of anything right now um and I'm not really you know all these uh

statistics about Kamala raising a bunch of money or this kind of like hrah like I'll believe it when it's been more sustained I don't I'm not sophisticated enough in the political scene to like have an opinion about how different her Administration is going to be I just don't know um it's been I don't know if you guys listened to the Ben and Mark Andre podcast on that was actually really helpful we talked about it last time yeah but I don't have this background of like working with you know the government and then I haven't seen one Administration versus another and I just don't know right so hearing from them just how different it's been uh was like very Illuminating for me and yeah I mean I'm kind of sympathetic to both views

like you know you see these takes on Twitter where you know PE we shouldn't be [ __ ] on the Democrats for engaging but at the same time you know I kind of think you gota you know believe it when I see it and there's like real change and it doesn't just feel reactive like I feel like that's the fair take here um so I don't know um I will say I I I also think it's been really interesting to watch I'm generally a skeptic of people saying uh the media sucks and they're evil and they're ruining the US like I always push back on that but I have say I have to say like dude they like they've been doing not such a great job and and honestly poly Market has been doing kind of a better job than the media of calling a lot of the stuff out

they have and there's some you know they they work synergistically right like poly Market responds to Media stories a lot of so you know take that with a grain of salt but I mean come on if you'd only been looking at Poly Market or only looking at the media you'd probably do better only looking at Poly market so 100% the the other one is remember when vitalic posted that like you know against being a single-issue crypto voter like that was kind of like the height of the Trump uh Twitter you know tyraids celus at all and I as soon as he posted that I was like oh [ __ ] he's going to get cancelled here but as per usual the man is is preing you know it's kind of more of an even race now

there's more bipartisan nature to it like don't fade metallic what do you guys do you guys have any fun weekend plans any any you guys doing anything good man I feel like each weekend right now it's crunch time for framework it's like I'm like recharge mode like plug myself into the wall and sit there yeah don't go into a dark room and emerge Monday morning yeah ready ready for more battle are you spending more time in uh New York or San Francisco these days probably both I mean I'm about to do a New York run but it have been in SF for for a while and you know when you got LPS you go to them wherever they may be or wherever they want to go yeah well

you guys have the fivey year coming up that's very exciting man congrat five baby that's awesome yeah I'm sad I'm sad to miss that I'll be uh I've got this Canada Trip that's been on the calendar forever but um enjoy it I'm out like the next three weeks honestly New York is no fun in the summer it's like you don't really want to be here it's It was 95 degrees a couple weeks ago for the entire it's just terrible yeah thank you no thanks yeah yeah we end here yeah yeah we can end it fellas all right see you guys good times all right guys one more shout out here here to this episode's title sponsor say there are a ton of reasons to build on say if you're itching to get started

building or using the ecosystem head over to say. iio that's se. get started be sure to let them know that we sent you thank you sir