Beyond the Hype: Crypto’s Next Phase | Roundup
18 Apr 2025 · 1:05:28
Santiago Roel Santos, co-host of Empire, joins Bell Curve hosts Jason Yanowitz and Michael Ippolito to discuss where crypto's market conditions stand heading into a new phase. The conversation covers stablecoin proliferation, long-term allocators accumulating Bitcoin, how L1 tokens get valued, and crypto's ongoing data and transparency problems.
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And this is something that I think about inversion a lot which is okay like Salana right now every chain is pure speculation so to speak. Um but like over time what you want to see is as a percentage of the pie speculation going down like meme connectivity important growing as a whole but percentage- wise decreasing you want to have other types of activity. Maybe it's tokenized stocks again speculation but a different type of user different type of company because I mean unit economics of the user in crypto suck. you onboard 100 million people or a million people to buy Trump and then how many of those have stuck around? Hey everyone, quick shout out to today's sponsor, Namata.
Namata is currently entering phase three of their mainet roll out. So make sure you check it out by following the link in today's show notes. We'll talk more about Namata later today, but for now, let's get started. Quick shout out to Permissionless 4 coming this summer to New York June 24th through June 26th. We'll have speakers from all across the industry, including Hayden Adams, Kyle Sani, Guy Young, and more. Get your tickets today by following the link in today's show notes, and make sure to use code Bell 10 to save 10% on your purchase. See you there. Hey everyone, quick disclaimer before we get into today's episode. Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is forformational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial
advice. Our guests and I may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. All right, everyone. Welcome back to actually a special edition. We got a uh Bell Empire Empire curve. I don't know what the correct uh mishmash here is, but we got Michael's one and two, Vance and Santi from Empire joining today. Fellas, how we all doing? You know, typically we're uh we're adding uh speed and and velocity to the shows by by cutting people, but uh I guess we're we're adding speed and velocity by adding. Sweet. Too gracious. Too gracious. Michael, um before we started recording, Michael was describing his herculean triathlon.
Which which which my immediate response was bare markets are when you get in shape and you start doing this type of things. And he said, "No, we're not a bare market." Van said, "No, we're on a bare market." Sorry. Sorry to blow the cover, guys, but I don't know. It's a good question. We should probably get into it. But yeah, no. Uh just try to try to keep your keep your time uh filled while uh and not watch the charts these days. Wait wait wait waiting for the chart to go up like refreshing coin gecko. What do you guys think though? This is a a little bit of an odd spot. It doesn't feel odd. Usually in crypto, you know if things are good or bad, right? It's clearly a bull market or clearly a bare market. Maybe there's some confusion around the inflection points, but this feels like a bit of an
odd spot. I'm curious, what are you guys how are you guys situating yourselves at the moment? How do you contextualize this within the history of crypto markets? I I think there's a handful of assets that are basically having their float cornered and these are going to squeeze in like 3 months. Feels like maybe two or three months. And then there's the other 95% of crypto assets which just have no marginal buyers and are and are slowly bleeding out. Um, and then there's all sorts of like shenanigans in the middle with like Jesse from from Coinbase like fighting everyone on the timeline and you know everyone else just kind of eating each other like Rushi getting you know the the heho from movement like there there there's uh there's movement in the pack and it feels like people are
going to emerge and and others are going to kind of get left behind. But at the end of the day, I think, you know, the real trends of this industry right now are the lending market, stable coins, you know, Bitcoin is money, ETH is, you know, figuring itself out, albeit pretty messily. And yeah, I don't know. I don't I don't think there's as much of a clear de demarcation between bull and bare market. Like over 90K, it feels like it's probably back on. Under 90K, it feels like we're we're off. But um Nvidia got sacked for like 10% yesterday and crypto kind of just hung in there. And that's the first time that's like basically ever happened.
Yeah, I I I would I generally agree with everything. I I think the only things I would add are are we're kind of in this range right now. Um it feels like where I would say if we're back above 90, it feels like it's game on, but I think if we're back below 80, it feels like it's game over. Um and we just kind of been like in this range for the last couple weeks, which makes total sense. It's one tweet from Trump or one tweet from someone who hears some information about, you know, the president of China says whatever. And it is one tweet away from breaking through in one way, shape, or form. Um, but I think ultimately this stuff gets figured out probably in the
next like 30 to 60 days. And I don't think we have to wait the full 90. I think they're going to start having um you know in terms of the tariffs and the trade deals that they're working on. They're going to start having we have agreed to a deal in principle type um notifications and announcements and then it'll be okay here's the details. But once we move past this and we will move past this um I I think it's only going to be uh exciting for the rest of the year. Um it's just the uncertainty right now makes people wait on the sidelines. What will also be really interesting coming up in the next couple of weeks is basically all of the MAX 7 are reporting Q1 earnings in the next two weeks which means that and Q1 I'm sure is going to
be fine um generally but what everybody will be looking for is guidance um for the next quarter Q2 but also for the rest of the year and whether it's you know capex numbers that people are tracking um forecast of revenue if they're seeing you know tariffs or trade policies actually hit the revenue uh figures forecasts. Um, so much of these businesses are basically the entirety of what people own. Uh, especially over the last 5 years, you had this huge allocation towards US equities over the last five years, but within that an even deeper allocation into these seven companies thinking that this is the trade of, you know, the decade and they're they're potentially, you know, the ones that are hit hardest if growth
does not keep up with the already insane expectations. Um, so I those are things that I'm looking for in the next couple of weeks. Um, but yeah, excited to move past this probably in the next couple months. Santi, I'm curious to get your perspective here and you know, I want to maybe make some of this crypto specific and you know, you guys all have a lot of portfolio companies and I'm curious how you're advising your uh port co-founders at the moment because well, Santi, you are you can speak from the founder perspective now with inversion, but I'm curious how you're thinking about this, right? because it's not like crypto isn't capex heavy or manufacturing based industry but if asset prices go down 50% it definitely impacts your growth for the year and so much of this is uncertain at the moment so how are you
guys thinking about just business planning for the next 12 to 18 months it's business as usual really I mean again if you move past the 6 12-month timeline this happens in every cycle like there are some pockets of crypto that are getting more attention like hype and you know real world assets lending markets are back in the menu. Fundamentals are back in order. This is like very I'm not like I don't think this cycle is different other than perhaps there's been like a few like outlier assets that have really like shined. But again like for me it's business as usual. You always got to keep at least 24 months of runway.
Always got to control cost. Don't do dumb [ __ ] and invest in thing or you know sponsor crazy stuff like focus on building a product and constantly be conferences you can sponsor though. Yeah, true. But you know I mean like the the there is some always some reckless spending that goes on. There is for sure. Yeah. There's like always in all my conversations with founders they always say look there's one 10x engineer that we we'll just pay that guy more and we can let go of others. Maybe just focus on hiring more 10x people. Um but listen, we've never the backdrop for crypto if you extend your view towards like multiple years has never been better. All all the major roadblocks have gone away. Like we have a very proc crypto administration. We likely will
get stable coin bill in the next I don't know six months. That's huge. Less than that. Uh you go to D, you have the sentiment among like non-crypto natives is probably stronger than within crypto natives like the Black Rocks, Robin Hoods, New Banks of the world. like those guys appreciate the potential. So again for me to survive and always keep you know healthy amount of runway um and and you know I think that the only thing that is probably like now this cycle is just understand your position in the stack like how are you going to actually monetize your user or your product and you know it's sort of simple stuff that I think um it it's kind of punted it's like yeah we'll we'll figure out monetization
later and I get it look like Facebook in the early days did not have a monetization that it just said, "We're going to build a killer product that people love and we'll then figure out how to monetize." And when it did its IPO, people forget, but everyone on Wall Street was discounting that stock like crazy. It went down. It had a crazy swings because it was at a time where most people didn't appreciate social media. And at the end of the day, oh, if you have attention of the user, you can monetize the [ __ ] out of it. Um, and I think crypto's kind of going through that evolution now. Like, we still we have some breakout apps, but we still have 30 60 million active users on chain. like it's it's it's still not where we want it to be, but I do think
that like stuff that I'm excited about like tokenized stocks, front ends, uh protocols that can capture that flow is sort of interesting. And so yeah, um I'm very much like not bothered by crypto prices right now. We we've never been buyers of alts in a larger size than we are today. Yep. um our mouth is uh I do think that could be volatile, but if you're waiting for like the VIX to spike to 50, it already happened. And just just as like uh investor psychology, um you're never going to be able to time the bottom. So
don't uh spend your time waiting around for it because it has probably already passed in a lot of ways. and maybe you'll get another shot at something lower. Um, but the best time to be buying something is frankly when it's like 20 to 40% off of its low and it and it has made a clear turn. Um, and that's the best time to be loading up. Also keeping dry powder ready to go in case you know it's a it's a fake top and you get another shot at something lower. But I mean that that I think is kind of where the market is broadly right now. you got a lot of people who are thinking it could be a fake top and and maybe there's another drop depending on what happens. Um and maybe people will get that shot or maybe we've already passed the drop and this is the slow build
towards you know a new resolution. Um the the one thing that I was going to add just as commentary from this week um we obviously maintain relationships with a lot of uh venture fund allocators um our investors and um some interesting perspectives that we got in multiple cases actually over the last few weeks but it kind of capstone this week was um the things that they are really aligned with and the thing that is really hitting with them in terms of why crypto is being able to showcase a side-by-side comparison of a technology company with number of people, product revenue, cost,
and then net income relative to a protocol where you've got probably similar levels of revenue, maybe even less revenue. effectively one 20th the cost in terms of headcount and the people that are at the protocol or working on the protocol and a massive difference in net attributable value either to the token holders or the equity holders and being able to showcase that is something that is working really well for them and it's just the most efficient way of putting dollars to work. Now, how does this translate? Kind of going back to what Santi was saying, it it we have to be efficient with the money that we're using as an industry. There is generally going to be less money than people expect. Every year over the last five
years, we have less money than the previous year from from just like a venture allocation perspective. Don't expect that that trend doesn't stop. it will be more and more concentrated in fewer funds and the funds will continue to raise new funds, but you're not going to see very many super large growth rounds um frankly for a while. Um, so, so you got to be prepared to do more with less. And you also got to be prepared to put your own startup company protocol, whatever you want to call it, on that comparison of who is your centralized business comparable and how much more efficient are you because you have a blockchain. And if you can do
that and you have a path to showcasing that, like it'll work. Um, and we just have been talking with LPs about that and that's what gets them most excited right now. I on the LP stuff like um one of the things I think about a lot to your point Mike um Michael around um there's now more vehicles and ways to express along crypto view you have ETFs you have uh you know Coinbase new bank um the latest Salana Micro Strategy like you know is that does that compute do you think that will affect like LP allocation into funds because look 10 years ago like 2017 vintage funds there was very much no it was more so like the the the capture of I want to go on crypto. I don't want to deal with custody and look
the grayscale premium was there for a reason, right? Um do you think that really changes the composition of venture and if so like early stage very much not unchanged but like the growth stages and if you're if you're like a company that raised 100 million and haven't chipped product or haven't shown metrics to raise another round like what do you do? You can't go public. You need to totally recap that business. I I I think um look the reason why growth equity exists in the first place is because of this thing called St. Barnes Oxley, which pushed all these companies to have just these insane levels to be able to go public, which require them to be at like I mean CO said this in their last presentation. It's like a $10 billion revenue run rate is like the minimum to go public now. Um or maybe it
was a billion dollars of revenue and a $10 billion market cap is like the minimum to go public, which is like, you know, the number of companies that reach Decadorn status is like one every few years. It's not every single year. and and so that pushed this e this growth this growth equity uh paradigm within traditional venture investing. Now crypto venture has also done similar things. It's like oh well if founders fund can go raise $4 billion then we should go off and go raise $2 billion. Makes absolutely no sense especially when we're talking about the thing that is working best is being able to talk about the capital efficiency that we have as an industry. And and to your point though, I think what you're describing will ultimately affect the
amount of dollars that venture funds raise because in many cases over the last five, six, seven years, you had many venture funds who were fund of ones. And what I mean by that is they've got a liquid strategy, they've got liquid venture, they're doing seed rounds, they're doing series A's, but it's all within one fund. and it's just like the venture or it's the crypto uh allocation that some endowment or some pension fund is looking at and and that's why they want to invest in that fund. Now, I think we're going to get product diversity and you're already starting to see that obviously with an ETF. Um you can get Bitcoin exposure through a brokerage. Great. Endowments will go for that. There's no reason why a fund should be holding Bitcoin unless
it's a trading strategy or a hedge fund in a liquid strategy. Um, but I think you're starting to really get L the LP is LP base is really starting to understand the difference between who is a core venture investor, who is a hedge fund investor and what are the other financial products that I can use to get crypto exposure whether ETF or structured products. This episode is brought to you by Namata. Namata is the shielded asset hub rewarding you for protecting the multi-chain. Shield your data across any asset and any chain and get shielding rewards for helping strengthen data protection for everyone.
To learn more, follow the link in the description below. This episode is brought to you by Marinade. Marinade is a high performance staking delegation platform that brings both liquidity and security to the Salana network by connecting soul holders with the best staking rates on Salana. Follow the link in today's show notes to learn more. One thing that I'm curious about um is how do you think the like a potential bubble in especially privates might impact the adoption of tokenization especially from the allocator perspective. So, you know, one thing that I've like you hear quite a bit is uh allocators running into privates to hide from volatility, right?
Because they don't have to mark tomarket every single day. But I could also imagine in case there was an exodus, right? There needed to be an like it's much more illquid, right? That's like the the shitty part. If you ever wanted to get out, there's really no easy way to do that. And so I was I was listening to a more traditional I listen to a bunch of like capital allocators and more traditional private equity pods. Um, and they're all they're all the thing that all the privates are talking about now is how do I okay these uh if I had to sum up the consensus view of everything on the tariffs and the Trump side of things is that we've probably seen a bottom, right? Like markets tend to look through even pretty horrific uh quarters of data if there's a light at the end of the tunnel on the other side.
But if we're headed towards a more stagflationary whatever environment long term it impacts the private guys now. Um, and I'm curious how allocators might think of I think some of them actually see value in not having to mark tom market on a daily basis, right? But I also could imagine a scenario where they're not able to get out and suddenly they're like, "Guys, this is ridiculous. I need these things to be liquid. There's no reason why they shouldn't be liquid. These should all just be tokens." Fun fun story before advance can share more perspectives on this, but uh we were talking with a large US endowment who said um their first crypto exposure was buying Bitcoin and they worked with Coinbase to do this in like 2018 or 2017 and the the person who was managing it literally told Coinbase, "I will pay you extra to not send us
accounting statements so that nobody knows how much this is worth. Don't tell us." Awesome. For three years. Don't tell us. Uh but that Yeah, it it's kind of a question. Is it a feature or a bug to have private marks that don't change with the vicissitudes of the market? In a lot of cases, it's a it's a feature. Your average like two or three-year-old crypto venture fund is not going to have these questions asked to it. It's just like it's going to be liquid at some point in the future and I think that's it for now. older traditional venture funds are getting this question and it's causing the questioning of of the venture asset class more broadly or at least you know the composition of it and how many firms should exist within traditional venture. Um the area of the
market that's gotten a pass so far is just like AI related stuff where you know we were just on a call with with someone who's raising $250 million for a startup that won't have a product for five years intentionally. Um and I think the question with a lot of these things is like um how much inter interrelated you know party transactions are there you know the revenue from softbank goes to openai which is spent on coreweave which is spent on cursor which is like you know it's like kind of like this roundtpping of revenue and then how much implicit leverage is embedded in that system where if open AI doesn't work or if AGI is not in two years does that blow up everyone downstream of them Um,
and there's all sorts of other platformous questions, but I think that is kind of the allocators are getting a lot smarter, I think, is kind of like how I would wrap it up where there's now enough dispersion, enough different types of funds, enough enough time horizon where people can really start to ask the tough questions. And it's good for the industry, it's good for crypto. And crypto should come out of this looking a lot better than the alternatives. It's more liquid. You have more liquidity events in general. Generally, the valuations are higher. Um, so I think that the capital is going to come, but what we've noticed from our peer set at least in in crypto venture is that they're upping their ownership percentage request. So some firms now want 10% of tokens. Um, and you know, giving 50% to the community, that's also
in question. Now, a lot of the kind of um classically held wisdom of crypto venture is being you know, re relitigated and re-quested. Same same with airdrops. That's awesome. as it should. As it should that's it's ridiculous that Yeah, that's great. Uh Santi uh Santi sent me a couple of chart I actually want to maybe return to this question of bear verse bull market. Santi these are some good charts here. How do I like the charts? All right. Can you guys see? Does it look full screen on my Yep. Okay. We're going to see all your DMs, but whatever. No looking at the charts. Oh god. All right. So, this is long-term holders of BTC are back to accumulation mode. For some reason, it's full screen
on my my screen, but uh along with this chart, I did see a stat of the number of uh 1,000 to 10,000 um BTC wallets is now at the highest. Yeah. and and buying like like if if you look at the distribution of who's actually buying it's the guys that have really large like the duration of the bit I think there's another chart that's not here is like you look at like the duration of wallets that have held Bitcoin after ex like over a year or multiple years are buying right now and that to me has always been the strongest signal like uh it's not so much the guys that are shortterm trading this thing it's like no like the guys that really know and and where the real wealth is and the flows are they're they're right now buying um now question is like I haven't seen I
would love to see that chart of like like within crypto because I do think right now uh based on like that last episode with Quinn and some of the macro guys it's like it's very much like Bitcoin centric and dominated and Bitcoin needs to lead for the rest of the market to feel comfortable like allocating into other stuff but of course you just heard Vance say that they're buying alt. So um look we also just said that it's pretty hard to get LPS to agree to allow you to buy Bitcoin and charge fees. So, not part of our core strategy, but I I think even if it was, I still, you know, like to us the meat of the next move in the market is probably like the midtail Yeah. coins, you know, anything between I mean there's things that are
100 to 200 million, which are kind of like cigarette butts sitting on the ground like it's just like there's not much meat in them for like a huge fund, but anything from 500 to kind of like 1.5 is is the strike zone. And then there's there's even bigger ones that are kind of like the mid majors, you know, 10 to 20 billion. Um, but and just as context, like our view is that Bitcoin has to move first. But you can see this in the charts, too. When Bitcoin moves, things that we're talking about in these strike zone in these different strike zones have higher betas to Bitcoin. So, if Bitcoin's up 1%, they're up two and a half. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. I think we have a positive skew like, hey, listen, uh, maybe it continues to be choppy for the rest of the year. trade war, all these like idiosyncratic things are like no, it's hard to like predict. We are in that kind of administration where one tweet away from like markets nuking or ripping. Uh so if you're not using leverage, if and and you have the possibility allocate, you sort of say, okay, how much more how much more downside do we have on something like Bitcoin? Uh certainly could go to 50 and I wouldn't flinch. Um but there is more I think over a long-term view, you probably say there's higher probability that Bitcoin is at. Maybe that's the question. Uh over in two years time, do you think there's a greater probability of Bitcoin being at 150K or 50K? Well, it's not evenly it's not evenly
distributed. Correct. Um but even still, I would still say 150 like and the breakdown of probabilities is probably like 7525. I have a question for you guys on what what do you think about this idea? Okay, so here's one thing that people ask all the time is, okay, I know that stable coins are going to be big. What if there was a trillion of stable coins in market cap in the next 3 years? How could I play that? Right? Borrow lend actually doesn't seem like a terrible way to play that, right? Like a lot of these borrow lend companies are leaning into stables.
Like that kind of seems like a category of liquid coin that you can buy that directly benefits from that trend. Um, borrow lend has been as a category um, one of the most beaten down categories within crypto over the last four years. mainly because the three out of the five biggest blowups were borrow centralized providers of borrow lend and it just like destroyed you know Genesis, BlockFi, Celsius basically just like ate up that entire market and people have been barely dipping their toes to get back in. Um, one of our portfolio companies, Maple, um, now Syrup, um, is, I mean, Vance was on, um, spaces with
them today, and I think Vance tweeted this, but like they've just been chewing glass for the last four years. Um, and they just hit over, uh, a billion in TVL this week. So, you're starting to see this stuff happen on chain and and doing it in DeFi native ways, which is really interesting. in particular, it was actually Sky that allocated over hund00 million over the last few weeks to Maple to then lend out. So, you're starting to see like all of these things pieced together in a way that is much more powerful than even what you had with Genesis where rehypothecation centralized, do you trust in them to, you know, manage everything in liquidity properly? But I think onchain lending is going to be one of the one of the
massive winners in this cycle. I actually I take that back. No more cycle talk. We're done with the cycle. Yeah, I agree. So, well, Michael, to build on your point here, this was some really great data which was gathered by Galaxy um and Alex's Thorn team there, Alex Thorne's team there. So, you know, this is you're looking at this was really difficult data to get. So, they I think parsed through public filings, bankruptcy docs, uh etc. back in the day. Um, and they actually came up with the amount of CFI uh or the amount of lending market uh exposure that you had going back all the way through 2018. You can see, you know, these or if you're following along on my screen here, these sort of orange blocks are the
centralized lenders. So, Genesis and BlockFi, but you are starting to see a slow rebuilding of credit the market driven primarily by DeFi. Actually, he's got a chart here uh explaining uh reviewing this, which is today you actually have a larger market for DeFi lending than CFI lending, which is pretty cool to see. Great. Great to follow up all of my points with perfect data. I do think this is missing like the market maker borrow that happens on centralized exchanges, which I imagine is quite significant. M but anyway you put it lending is still down 75% from the peak and there's a lot of new category players that are eating most of that pie and most of the profits associated with it. uh on the I think
your initial assessment was like okay we want to go long stable coins because everyone categorically I think it's like from stripe to investors I'm sure LPs are like hey this is a re room temperature semiconductors you know like and everyone is trying to like I've talked to every other day there's like a new company that wants to launch their own stable coin or wants to use stable coins in some way shape or form which look is really bullish for the category like just it's the Trojan horse. How do you express that view? I mean, um, you know, I'd actually be curious because you guys, um, did you mess with have the stable cocoin go to a$150 or go down to 70? Um, but, uh, I think there's like multiple ways you can express that. Like, there's now like
stablecoin specific chains. I mean, like Tron has been that for USDT for such a long time, but now there's like Tether specific chains that have cropped up um, that I think you guys are investors in. I'm too um then you can play the new banks of the world and Robin Hoods of the world that you could take the view that something like new bank you know they're could cut you know they can monetize that user more effectively can acquire users more effectively their activity rate versus a KPI that they disclose which is basically like active mouse was gone up um most of their users are buying USDC not bitcoin salana ethereum or memecoins it's you know having dollars in a bank account it's a killer use
um they're using USDC, but you know, you can envision a world where they might use another stable coin or launch their own. I I don't actually know if they're going to if it makes sense for them to be an issuer. I think an issuer is kind of a tough business model. But if you own the user relationship, I think I that's how I would express the view of long stable coins like think of who's going to who owns the customer relationship and can you cut costs in a meaningful way or monetize that user basically running tether's business model where interest income shoots up because you know you acquire more users and you have like all this depositor base growing. I mean, being an issuer, well, there's effectively, so I I think it's also helpful to maybe separate out what is a payment stable coin versus
what is a a different type of stable coin. And um I don't know if you want to call it like some people say Athena like USD is more of a structured product. Um but I I think that there are different flavors of stable coins within like broadly stable coins. Um so that's one thing. Um but being an issuer of a stablecoin, you know, maybe uh less so the case with Circle as we talked about a few pods ago, but uh much more so the case with Tether in the fact that they make 13 billion in net income every year is a very very successful business model um if you can get there.
But it's also the hardest thing to displace. It's like we we uh we describe it as um you know stere uh social media squared where the network effects are are twice as strong as what you have with social media and I think broadly you know how we look at it is there's basically infrastructure there's issuers and then there's like you said enabled businesses um infrastructure plasma is a great example you know stablecoin specific chain you know affiliated with tether and is going to the you know very low cost high throughput chain um issuers now this is tougher um tether equity circle equity tougher um but things like Athena or Sky or other issuers that are
doing differentiated things could be attractive places to look at you know the issuing category where they're making real revenues and they they have you know real incomes that are flowing back to a token and then the businesses I mean we we just announced an investment in an insurance company and and they are definitely focused on Bitcoin for Now, um they're regulated to be able to do so, but you can imagine a world where they are also regulated for stable coins. Um and being able to provide USD access for insurance products to people who don't have access to USD. Um this was your largest investment to date, isn't it? Largest equity investment to date. Equity investment. That's great. But the Yeah, at some point we'll we'll get Zach on the pod. He's a second time founder.
Really talented. Um but yeah, I think broadly about businesses that are enabled by stable coins is one of the best places to be, you know, investing in stable coins. It's just it's an indirect route, but it it is um to your point, Santi, it's the owning the customer relationship. And we kind of describe it as like there's a ton of business models that it's like business plus AI equals better business. And in a lot of ways, we think of fintech uh as fintech plus stables equals better fintech. Do you think uh on this point I'm actually curious do like do you think that um like the network the points on network effects being really strong for stablecoin issuers like tether they've obviously benefited from being first and having all this distribution
connectivity and you know composability so to speak like it's just everywhere right exchange is very funible asset um if you are a Robin Hood or a I mean I guess PayPal is doing PYUSD but there's I guess reasons why that's not moving much yet. Hundreds of millions of PYUSD. Yeah. But I'm curious like if you have I I've always felt that the name of the game for stable coins like it is in everywhere is like a do you own the customer relationship and do you have distribution? There are a lot of legacy businesses that have a ton of distribution like Black Rockck JP Morgans of the world. What would happen in a world where they issue their own stable coins? Are you saying like you need to have like a Switzerland model
that sits in the middle of everyone or or would they be able to displace Tether? I I think fundamentally that all of the issuers to date of stable coins have completely missed on the product market fit of stable coins which is that PayPal USD circle all of the major issuers within the United States are focused on the US as their core market and tether started outside the US and has focused on everywhere but the US and that's why they have all the growth that they have. Everybody who lives inside the US, all all four of us inclusive, have great access to US dollars and financial services around those dollars.
Why would I need a stable coin in so many cases? You know, maybe I'm funding an investment that's a crimative protocol and they they're accepting USDC and I could do it over the weekend. Congrats. That's great. Like I don't really need a stable coin otherwise. And uh at the same time, if you live in Turkey, you're using Tron and you're sending people USDT and that is the only form of payment that you use. Like I I think that a lot of these people have just like totally missed the mark on what stable coins are actually good for, which is exporting dollars. Namata is the shielded asset hub rewarding you to protect the multi-chain. Built to give you full control over sharing your personal information, Namata brings data protection to existing assets, applications, and networks. Namata ends the era of transparency by default,
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non-custodial yield, integrating staking rewards into Salana financial products, or leveraging Marinade's best and market rewards rate for revenue and treasury management. Whether you're in DeFi, Tradfi, or somewhere in between, Marinade has something for you. To learn more about Marinade, follow the link in today's show notes. Hey guys, I've got a question for all of you, maybe a little bit relevant for Plasma here, but how sticky do you think that stable coins are to their chain that they're issued on? Um, and I'm I'm looking at a headline uh from uh Standard Chartered, which they're estimating uh $2 trillion of stables on chain, and they called out Salana stable coins being quote stickier than expected. And we're looking at here a chart of uh the Salana stable coin
supply. This massive peak here was the Trump token um launch. So, you saw a flood of stables on chain. And here I can find the the DEX activity after that. But you see it's basically remained and actually you're continuing to see an sustained inflows of stable coins, but it's not like it just dropped off versus the DEX activity post um post the token launch obviously fell off a cliff. So I'm kind of curious how you guys think about how sticky stable coins are to their underlying chains in general. I think Tron has this business model of like almost like Uber where it went city by city, retailer by retailer and built out those merkantile
connections that way. Um, so I think that that is fairly sticky. A lot of the USDT that is on Toronto today is exchange reserves. So I mean exchanges are kind of the arbiter of where money goes and market maker capital as well, which again is just like looking for a fast and cheap chain. And that's honestly same thing with Ethereum. A lot of the, you know, whatever 50, 60, 70, 80 billion dollars of stable coins that are on Ethereum are basically just reserves. Um, that being said, there is probably 20 to 40% of those, you know, TVL on ETH that is highly mobile and highly active and is embedded in lending
markets. And like I think Ethereum's strength right now is that it just has deeper capital markets than any other chain. It's kind of similar to the US's strength where it's just like the capital markets are so deep that you can finance different types of things. So like Ethereum I think is fairly sticky as a result of that. Tron has the retail angle but you know the the retail payment vendors like they are not loyal to one chain or the other. Um so that has a pretty low switching costs. And then Salana I feel like is an entirely different ecosystem where it's more cyclical as it relates to memecoins and the stickiness of the stables are related to the stickiness of the memecoins. I do know there have been a lot of outflows of stables from Salana post Trump um Trump coin that is and I
think that has a risk of continuing if the memecoin cycle does not I guess restart. I'm not sure if it's still fully kicking or alive but it seems less alive than it has been in the past. uh the memecoin cycle down quite a bit. Um I'll go find these statistics for you uh and pull it up on the dashboard. If that chart's correct, then I think you know and assuming meme coins are down whatever percent like it it does seem like the the stable coins have stuck around or or new has flowed in. Um they've stuck around. the the statistic here um just in terms of uh revenue being generated by chain here is yeah beamcoin activity and rev generated by that is down 80% but Salana still has
70% of the overall volume uh by chain so even though beammecoin activity is down it's their their market share relative to all chains is still quite high so are you looking are you looking at your uh uh rev chart yeah here let me pull it up if you I was looking at that actually because it is down dramatically like geto tips, priority fees, like I mean basically you saw a spike in of what I'm looking at your literally your network rev chart which is so nice on Salana. I just I can send it to you if you want.
Yeah, here I got it. I'm actually just going to show the tweet of Ryan here. And also I will say you know people were I remember there there's there was a I tried to go back and find it in uh the bell curve. It was actually in the bell curve telegram chat where we were we were debating um uh we were debating whether or not the spike in rev there was an analogy to Ethereum's fees that it was generating in 2021 2022 and to like to me it looked a lot like that right like some sort of local maximum um and the argument against it at the time was that the fee per transaction was much lower than Ethereum at the time but I mean I think well well the the aggregate fee might be lower, but the the composition of that
fee is very unsustainable because it's very so that's that's a point like the Ryan what is it guy um cling Travis Clling says which is the salonic casino is a casino but it serves you meth and drips meth in your drink so like you die which was like a very crude like which which is like the point around toxic and maybe I think is is a correct one which is you you like if you pull up that chart that I sent you on DM yeah I got That to me is something that I think about a lot. Um, which is yeah, like still everything's down. Salana still has in this cycle Salana has just captured the attention. It's a most retail friendly chain. It's not to say that it can't be displaced. I do think that there's a version of this world
where like it's unsustainable to extract that amount of value per user. Um, and so you think about the organic sustainability of the fee stream uh of that rev. Um, and I think you I do wonder like where that goes. Um, and and yeah, there we go. Yeah. Damn, that's a that's a memecoin chart. Yeah, quite literally. One question. I mean, this is like calling into question a lot of strongly held dogma within the industry, but like why are these L1s valued in the way that they are? like in case do you think everyone agrees that of how these L1s
are valued? Well, no. And this is kind of my question. It's like you I the other thing that we hear you know from LPs is like how do you value these things and like you know how do you think about you know fundamentals and like what's going to be the network uh driving value uh value drivers going forward and it's like it's really simple. It's revenue and income like that's what really matters. Um, totally. And that definitely resonates, but it's it's a lot harder to justify that from like a $175 billion base versus like a $ 1.5 billion base. And uh yeah, it's just it's it's been interesting to like compare and contrast things and and call into question some of the valuation
models or if there are any models. But you know, in thinking about it, you know, and people have tried to do this so many different ways. Is it issuance as a cost? Is it issuance as like a you know share multiplier? Like there's an issuance question, there's a revenue question, there's a net income question. Um what happens if something like Ethereum becomes net inflationary for a period of time like it has over the last few months? Like there there are questions around that and and then there's the whole question of like the monetary premium and if you use soul as the trading asset for memecoins, you also use ETH as a trading asset for DeFi, like how do you put that into the valuation? Uh I mean I like if you look at the top 10 I think to me even top 20 it's clear that uh similar to Tron like
you just have had first mover advantage in these assets that have it's an it's an attention game top 20 you can't I would have predicted 2017 then 2020 then 2023 then now that the composition of the top 10 and 20 is going to change dramatically it hasn't really XRP most XRP Cardano Um, a lot of these a lot of these chains have just been really good at generating community. You know, they made a lot of money for certain people. Uh, they have the I mean, Brad is cut in its own cloth. Like, he is just a phenomenal promoter, you know, brand. I, you know, wasn't really expecting XRP to move. I mean, heck, there's a version where XRP becomes the number two
asset. Uh, because they just bought that acquisition, right? That is going to now like they're going to will into existence, which is what every protocol kind of candidly should be doing. Like if you have a war chest of currency, go swap it and buy a real business and like grow into the valuation, which I'll give them credit. Look, I won't laugh out like they are just very smart in that way. And um I mean chain link and the way they went about growing and positioning themselves as leading oracle like you can laugh at Tron all you want, but they've been the singlehandedly deploying in boots on the ground USDT.
There's a reason why Tether's market cap of stable coins has and probably will continue to stay at 75%. Um, and so I think like I do think that uh it's like in 5 10 years time we'll definitely look at cash flow and fees and the more importantly the composition of the fees. Yeah. As you have and this is something that I think about inversion a lot which is okay like Salana right now every chain is pure speculation so to speak. Um, but like over time what you want to see is as a percentage of the pie speculation going down like meme coconity important growing as a whole but percentage- wise decreasing you want to have other types of activity. Maybe it's tokenized stocks again speculation but a different type of user different
type of company because I mean unit economics of the user in crypto suck. You on board 100 million people or a million people to buy Trump and then how many of those have stuck around? Not not many. Um uh the the other thing too that uh we just haven't had that long in crypto yet to debate some of the nuance of yeah like composition of where these fees are coming from Santi um and I don't know you guys have probably listened to like if you listen to kind of like the way a hedge fund a traditional hedge fund or big money manager presents to its LPs they're a very sophisticated way that they like to slice and dice the financials of different sectors and companies etc.
Right? In crypto, we're just way more immature in terms of thinking about this stuff. And I noticed this around the debates around rev uh like Rev on uh crypto Twitter where people immediately jump to if you're maxim if you're trying to maximize rev that means you're value extractive and you shouldn't be extracting on day one. It's like well no um I think there is a miss you're missing a durability component in rev. Like I think it's very fair to look at that income stream and say if this is coming from the memecoin casino and I don't think it's sustainable to have people pay 10% slippage to ape into farcoin then yeah you should assign a discount to that right but it doesn't necessarily mean that you're max extracting from day one it just means you have to optimize for something in the long term right so we just haven't
had that long to chew over all of this stuff um whereas finance has had centuries to I I I agree I also think uh and this may be like a too too simplistic view doesn't solve everything. But look, there's no gap accounting in crypto. And if we had that, if if we had definitions of like, no, that's revenue. This is cost. Here's what token issuance looks like. If we had that and and people could see it in real time, I bet these these would trade off of fundamentals a lot better. Traders, AI enthusiasts, and deans, listen up. The game is changing and Desk is leading the charge. To celebrate their launch, Desk is running a trading campaign with three major highlights.
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mix and match where where those tokens sit in different wallets. So, you can't possibly verify any of that on chain, right? There's all of this stuff that sounds so nice to say it's all onchain and transparent, but it's so difficult, man. It's just you got you got to remove the uh the payw wall on your dashboards there. You actually want to fix this problem. I also as a blocks investor, we we said, "Yeah, I I think like you know like even like things like rev Yeah. like normies don't know what that is. like we need to get to a price to earnings based industry. I mean Vance Vance can share this, but Vance found a bug in a dashboard recently. Yeah, I found a bug
in a dashboard and I was like, um, hey, like this doesn't seem right. Is this right? And they were like, no, that's not right. I was like, so you're understating revenue by about $50 million a year. They're like, yeah, I guess we are. And look, like this is all public information. It's literally on a public ledger. So, we just like bought more. Well, I it it's I've can't tell how many times I've experienced this where I'm like you constantly monitoring certain dashboards. You're like, "Okay, this definitely feels off." And then you ping the team and they're like, "Oh, yeah. I guess you're right. Like, we like capture that for the week and he can't come back and we're gonna get to it."
God damn it. the duality of this like everything is on chain but somehow we can't like have standardized information and like the total versus circulating it's like guys come like let's just someone please build it Edgar SEC now thank you please 10ks 10 Q's can I can I ask you guys what would you like that to look like because companies wouldn't fill that out either unless they were they had to by you know okay so so token terminal has a good version of this where it's like lowest to highest fees, you know, net of inflation expenses. I think that's the key thing.
Um, what do you think they do you think that they categorize like apples to apples for every protocol? And so this is the problem. There needs to be gap generally accepted accounting principles for what defines revenue, what defines these like the definitions of the accounting standards is just as important as just like putting them out. But the other the other thing that's really important is getting into a cadence. And I don't think you need companies to file these Edgar equivalent documents. These are protocols, right? They should be onchain. They're also startups, too, right? Like they're not that's just too much onus for even a two-year-old. Yeah.
But like I mean they're $10 million startups with like teams of 150. Like [ __ ] task two interns to do this [ __ ] Yeah. Like let's keep in mind before before Amazon went public with $300 million market cap. like they they can they can handle you know IPO level disclosures uh if they really wanted to but I I think what the reason why Save Barnes is such an important element in in the process of companies going public now is there's literally criminal liability if you get those things wrong and so that's the reason why it is such a higher standard and such a higher bar and so look it's just you standardize this you have you know a methodology for accounting for things you put them out and maybe you're required to file a
report every year or every quarter of just like, hey, here's what we've got and that's it. I I would also argue that even outside of financials, there might even be a more basic set of disclosures and requirements that that needs to be had here, which is what is the relationship between the labs entity and the foundation, right? Uh what agreements do you have in place with market makers? Like these are just basic things to make it even investable, right? Before you even know the financials, like there's I don't know. We won't say who and uh but but we have literally uh multiple portfolio companies who haven't launched yet who are literally going to be doing this when they launch. Yeah.
And I think there's a start doing what? Like disclosure. They're going to be putting out disclosures. They're going to be putting out quarterly financials. They're going to be putting out basically like all of their best practices on how they evaluate their protocol and the success and the growth metrics. Um they're going to be putting out disclosures around the team accounts and which ones are the team wallets. Um, Maker Maker hasn't done that to to that extent, but I think as a protocol, they were pretty far along the curve of being pretty buttoned up in their disclosures. I mean, certainly, I mean, it's a low bar, but the Ethereum Foundation being like probably the worst in sense of most capitalized and yet like terrible reporting and accounting and just like no accountability as far as where $100 million is being spent
each year. and you're like, "Well, here here's here here's a here's a little like here's a little inside baseball as well." Guess what? The liquid buyers of assets will buy your token the more information you disclose. And so if you are a protocol founder and you're like, "How do I get in front of people who will buy my token?" Share more information. Disclose more. And I bet you will have a lot more people who are interested in buying your token. I think this this is this is true for like the protocols that are just going to launch. There is the Cardano effect which is you never want to share any information because well yeah that's process where if you're not sharing there's something going on and if
there's something going on it's probably not worth it. I agree. Um, let me ask you guys this. One thing that uh I feel like exists in crypto and for lack of a better term, it's kind of like the token industrial supply chain where there are a lot of people which there there's a lot of incentives, right, to not surface some of this stuff. Um, and we've talked about this before. You know, everyone was yelling at VC coins quote unquote for a little bit. And I just think that was so misdirected, right, where it's really honestly not a lot of shade got put towards market makers and also the exchanges. Um, not every exchange, but some have some egregious egregious policymaking uh or like policies for listing tokens. And I don't know how to say it's bad. It's it's really bad. Um,
and they've got everyone locked up under NDAs. No one can talk about it. Everyone's incentivized to not talk about it because investors need to launch tokens. If you're going to launch a token, you gota you got to maintain good relationships until things break through. And once they break through, what are they going to do? Lock everybody up? It's kind of like the you what what's the exchange if everybody who's launching a successful protocol says hey here are all the deals that I got from all the exchanges are those exchanges really not going to list something that's doing really well if they shared what those details were no of course not like it should be transparent it should be open but take a first mover I would love if dexes benefited from this I think they already are there's a sort of a structural trend
of dexes to benefit here on the longtail because the listing process is so much easier And if the big centralized guys keep taking 10% slugs out of the token supply, then that's only going to accelerate. So maybe they should just keep doing it. An informed listener might say, "Wait a minute, like insert Leo DiCaprio. I mean like Misari tried to do this but hasn't been able to and it's a coordination problem." Uh look, obviously exchanges do require this information like Binance listing requirements and the colonoscopy that a team has to go through is very stringent. They don't share that with folks because to Michael's point, you know, the look guys like there's an standard IPO like look at IPOs if you're
a lead left or right underwriter like you're you take like there's fees that you disclose. I think like you normalize that and you know I think it should be fine. Uh but you know the incentives haven't been there. I I do think to Michael's point like if we get all if all the new projects like coordinate and say listen we're just going to share this type of information and we're going to make it transparent and public and you know just be that as it may like I think we're going to be in a better position as an industry to be taken seriously by Trafy and just new flows coming in. We we all know this we all know this but there's this entity called FINRA for the financial uh industry which is it's not a regulator. It's literally something that was created by all of the financial institutions to be
a self-regulatory organization and everybody has to apply like comply with FINRA guidelines and standards and you have to like register with them when you're managing money or you're a financial institution like I'm not saying that we need to do FINRA but there are mechanisms that you can do that are self-regulatory. The other reason why this is in everyone's best interest to do something that looks like SRO is if you if the industry can prove that it's regulating somewhat, right, to an extent and you can pass something somewhat favorable off to a regulator, they're more willing to listen than if you haven't done anything and then they're just going to regulate you how they want to regulate you, right? It's it's a way to at least have a seat at the table, right? Um, and one thing I'd be curious, I think this is something we've thought about as well. It's
interesting you guys are getting to new protocols might have an advantage here. One thing I'd be really sympathetic to is the setup of some of some of the OG protocols. It was just done at a different time, right? Uh maybe for ideological purposes, maybe for regulatory purposes and yeah, like how do you reckon some of the older protocols that are, you know, blue chip and really well-intentioned but maybe have a sort of bizarre structures because they got set up in a different time as soon as as soon as the top 10 comp 20 composition starts changing because new flows going in the protocols are actually buttoned up. Yeah, they're going to change. Don't don't expect them to do it now. They have no incentive to do it. They will as the industry grows up. Uh just like also like let's standardize a repository where if people
are going to issue disclosures. So so let's go back to I think was Liberty Finan what is it? Liberty Financial and Sue or say uh announced like something right but it was like it was su the timeline was like like oh this is crime season. And I'm like, is it like if there was proper disclosures and proper like announcements that are made? I don't think there's anything wrong with having a partnership between two companies. It's just uh you know reg standardize how the communication happens, how the disclosure of conflicts of interest happen and also you know have 10b51 plans for the team. If they're selling, make sure they're not
selling around that disclosure. Like all this stuff is like very normalized in finance. Like you have 1051 plans for executives normalize like selling. Coinbase went through hot water and everyone tried to poke holes and like oh why are the executives selling like dude they agreed on these. Yeah 10b51 just yeah just to describe what those are if people don't know. Yeah 1051 say you're an executive of a company right and you say I want to Jeff Bas has done every every major executive public company has to go through this which says I want to take chips off the table. I want to sell my stock or in this case token. you say I'm going to sell programmatically in this cadence and there's you could either do it every every Monday or uh a certain amount of stock but it's a very and over like six
month period 12 month period you know usually it's like 12 months or whatever and so that kind of insulates you because no matter what happens say there's an M&A acquis like an M&A transaction or a lot of news coming out you're sort of like tied your hands to selling programmatically and so that's the way that this should be done. Um, and I think it's something that um, I would encourage every founder of a protocol that look nothing wrong taking chips off the table. Enter into and it just can be an email to yourself says I'm going to or you deliver tokens to like a smart contract or a market maker and says hey sell these tokens programmatically and that I think is the best way to to address com like you know insider seller selling and whatnot. Um,
in the case of SUI or this announcement, it would have imagine there there's two paths forward. If the team sold any tokens and you didn't have a 10B5 plan or like some sort of schedule, you're in hot water cuz then everyone's going to say you sold these tokens when the market pumped. You could have said, "Listen, I agreed to selling this. You know, it's normal. Here's the, you know, program and whatever." And these are the type of things that are very common in finance that uh should be standardized in crypto like like honestly if you're a protocol and you've raised decent amount of money and you're going to have a TG and you're have going to have a token have an investor relations person on your team not only to talk to liquid tokens but also just you know to make
sure that your comms are in place your investors are in play like connect connectivity with investors. It's just such a standard thing that every fund has, every major company, public company has. And you know, um, for better or for worse, crypto is that environment where companies go public earlier, but that doesn't mean or give you any reason or excuse not to be buttoned up on comms. I completely agree with that. Yeah, it m I mean it matters so much, right, when public companies when you have the CFO or the CEO get up there. There's a lot of training that goes in there like the narratives, how you sell it to market.
Jeff Bezos is one of the the all-time goats, right? I mean, he got everyone very comfortable with Amazon generating no profits for a long time because he was reinvesting. Um, and that was a huge bugaboo that Wall Street had with him forever, but he was just a really good com uh I think Reed Hastings right of Netflix was also quite good at this. Jeff, go list go read I mean obviously go read Jeff Bezos investor letters. They are other than the Bergkshire letters. It's like really good. Absolutely. All right, fellas. I think we can call it here. This was a really fun one. Um, Santi, thank you. Oh, we got we got extraterrestrials. Oh, sorry, Michael.
End us with aliens, dude. Please. Yeah, end us with the aliens. Uh, yeah, this is my uh this is my totally out of left field uh interest, but it was pretty interesting. Uh, yes, we found a planet 124 light years away uh that we've discovered in 2015, have been basically sending signals out to assess what is on this planet or in this planet. Uh there have been previous signals that have come back that signify the presence of water um uh presence of nitrogen uh and carbon dioxide. And what is most interesting is there are two different molecules or compounds that were identified in this uh I believe it was
officially identified last week that can only come from organic material, biological organic material. Um and if both of these uh compounds are truly identified um that uh suggest that there is biological organic material 124 light-years away from us on a planet that is eight times the size of Earth with a uh livable distance as they said uh from the star in that solar system.
K218b. Yeah, exactly. Someone's gonna Someone's going to launch a meme coin with that moon. There we go. World intersect literally. And I'm going to punt that to the moon. Oh my god. But yeah, the they they're going to release the data next week and other scientists are going to uh confirm or deny it. But it is a 3 in 10,000 chance that the findings that they have so far are a fluke, which is apparently a three sigma um um validation. and they need for it to be a scientific community validation, they need five sigma. So, we're going to get it tested. Some of these quotes are pretty cool. I'm sharing an article here from the BBC. It's it's the DMS and the DMDS are the two uh molecules that I was
referencing. Yeah, some of these quotes here um are really interesting from this BBC article. Uh if this association with life is real, then this planet will be teeming with life. There is uh the amount of gas that we estimate in the atmosphere here is thousands of times higher than what we have on Earth. Uh and this this last line here from this professor Mad Hustan uh if we confirm that there's life on K12 18b it should basically confirm that life is very common in the galaxy. So So it's 124 light years away. What is it? 800 trillion miles from here. Still a good ways. Are we going to see my distant cousins anytime soon or what's going on?
Coincidentally. Coincidentally, last week I I started rereading um before I found out about this uh Project Hail Mary because I read that. That's so good. Uh there's a new movie coming out that's uh coming out I think in the fall. Um and it's a Andy Weir who wrote The Martian. Um a really really good book. It's more like they're trying to solve a problem less trying to go explore, but it does talk about being uh a human at the far reaches of light years away from Earth. Uh, that's pretty interesting. If anybody wants to do a boat ride, you think they have tariffs in KB 182B or something? If they don't, they're going to soon. Baby, we'll tariff. We'll issue tariffs to K218.
Tariff these MFs. It's not rare earth minerals anymore. It's now rare extra terrestrial gases that were driven. Incoming tweet from TMO. I have secured 25%. Exactly. More gases than we have here. Do do you guys track like asteroid uh mining and all that? I don't know. No. Should I be? Okay. We should I mean if I have graciously invited to some other pod in this um we should you should look into it. It's like the amount of gold and rare earth minerals and on some of these asteroids that could be potentially be mined is like astronomical. The problem is like how do you bring it back to Earth? But yeah. How much uh how much Bitcoin are they finding on those
asteroids? Um None. None. That is That is very true, sir. Very true. All right, guys. Um I think we can wrap it here. Santi, appreciate you joining, man. Michael, thank you for the aliens. All right, everyone. Take care.