2026 Predictions with Michael Anderson and Vance Spencer

Transcript

I think a lot to be positive about going into 2026. I think 2025 we've done like the really tough work of like you know if you've got like a body that is infected with gang green you need to cut off those limbs and I think we've just eviscerated those limbs and maybe we have like one leg and you know like half an arm but like we're regrowing them in a more productive direction and I think that's about as much as the industry can really hope for it. It's not a nuclear winter. There's fundamentally things being driven. There's inflows from these ETFs, but we really do need to leave behind the [ __ ] the meme coining, the NFT [ __ ] the overfocus on decentralization, and you don't need to disavow these things. But you just need to kind of move past those as the focal

point of this industry because it's just not. >> Hey everyone, quick disclaimer before we get into today's episode. Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is forformational purposes only and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Our guests and I may hold positions in the companies, funds or projects discussed. >> Okay, we are recording. There we go. Uh, all right. Well, um, we have not come up with a name for the new podcast yet. Uh, nor have we made any other logistical plans to put it on the air. And as such, we are returning for a special guest episode of Michael and myself to bell curve. Um, the podcast that we were

formerly a part of. [laughter] Yeah, we we are working on a couple of titles to be honest. I think some of them are uh kind of hilarious how bad they are, but uh we're we're we're going to let them simmer over the next couple of weeks uh while we enjoy some holiday time and reset for 2026. But we did want to get back on the air just to be able to uh put out some thoughts on 2025. Kind of let's do a little bit of a review. Uh kind of a fun time given everything that's going on to review. Um but then also think about what's going forward into 2026 and kind of like where are we with crypto. And I' I'd say, you know, this will definitely be kind of a

continuation of the conversations that we've had over the last few years on bell curve. Um, I think it'll be very crypto dominated, um, in terms of the content and the conversation, but I I'd [clears throat] say looking into next year, um, just as crypto is doing, I think we're we're going to be expanding into other areas that, um, are adjacent. they're connected to crypto and and blockchain technology, but you know, things like energy um uh thing things like, you know, more institutionalized financial services, things like AI, like th those are areas that um are definitely being uh they're growing on their own, but they're also being integrated into the crypto landscape in

unique and interesting ways. Um, so we're looking forward to coming back to the new year with a a new title for this pod. Um, [clears throat] and uh, a slightly different, you know, new set of content. >> So, I I think kind of the the first thing to do is is give maybe not a super in-depth interview or review of 2025, but I think at least acknowledging that 2025 has been choppy to say the least. There's been so many different chapters. Um like the memecoin mania was really kicking off in Q1 this year with the Trump memecoin. Hyperlquid launched probably like a year and a month ago. Um

there has been so many different narratives within crypto uh and probably the death of some as well um for the benefit of the industry. But maybe just to kick it off like Michael, what what's your 2025 rap? I I mean I yeah going back let's say uh probably a little bit more than just a year. Um thinking about November 5th, 2024, Trump is elected, Bitcoin rips, everybody thinks that this is going to become like the Bitcoin presidency. Um [clears throat] you've got um a a very strong market leading into the end of 2024. Um I think if you pulled the audience of participating crypto members they would nine out of 10 eight out of 10 would say 2025 is going to be the

year. Um and [clears throat] I think if you talk to founders in the space too it led everyone in the direction of um this is going to be the year to make it. We finally you know four year cycle not four year cycle well like base cases four year cycle and if it's not it's still going to be bullish because Trump all of this that the other thing I I I think everybody that like there were there were no higher expectations going into a year for crypto than we had basically coming into 2025. And we had a lot of footfalls and uh maybe even way way bigger issues than just footfalls. I I think we uh as an industry did a lot of things to hurt

ourselves and and you know the things like the Trump, Melania, whatever tokens, meme coins, like they they didn't help either. Um and and so I think it started off um with you know some up and down um in terms of price action and interest and and I think people were still kind of searching for a narrative as to what this year was going to be about and because [clears throat] meme coins are basically like 99% speculative 1% likeness or whatever you want to derive as the tangible value if there is any um they they go up and down in rapid succession.

I mean, thinking back to January, February, I mean, that's when you had uh uh Melaniacoin launch and that's when everybody started to to like uh go out and talk about how they were starting these agencies to help people launch their meme coins and uh and then it kind of all came to a crashing halt when you had what's his name? Um with that Palm Angel shirt on going on the interview and I can't even remember his name. also we also nuked the president of Argentina in the process >> like [laughter] there are some really bad mistakes. Uh but I think yeah you know the first part of the year was [clears throat] okay like everybody just kind of get your

ducks in the line and and we're going to see where this thing goes. Um and uh I I also think just to call it out um it was in a lot of ways the ending of that which happened very rapidly. I mean, it wasn't it didn't last much further than like February or March that that kind of speculative fervor really kind of took off, went parabolic, dropped parabolically. Um, and then it really kind of had to settle for a while. Like that's when you also started to see the the tariff tantrum starting in March, April, and then come into a crescendo like I think May 8th or something like that. [clears throat] Um, like there was just a lot of structural change. Uh, and and we talked about this internally. Um but you had a regime

change in terms of the ways that these you know token projects were launching and kind of cultivating community and getting getting their growth. Um, and it it has completely shifted. Um, and so broadly I would say like 2025 and and have like there's t tons more stuff just to talk about, but like my my broad uh case before Vance hearing your perspective on 2025 is frankly um 2021 going all the way back was 90% retail capital, 10% institutional capital. and the institutions were, you know, the few liquid funds that existed and the venture funds that were buying tokens and but it was mostly retail. The vast majority was retail. And what what 2025

kind of encapsulated um which was a shift over time over the last four years was a a complete reversion of that percentage where it's now 90% institutional capital, 10% retail capital. And you know, we kind of say this tongue and cheek, but like after 1010 October 10th, the remaining 10% of retail capital went down another 90%. So now it's like it's closer to 99 to1. But I I think what at least my perspective kind of taking a step back um it's it was the final nail in the coffin of the retail capital um you know, speculative fervor. Um, and that kind of ended with with the tariff tantrum and and memecoins kind of um not being thing that people equated crypto to, which

ultimately I think is a good thing. Like we can put that chapter behind us and that's a positive thing for the industry. >> Yeah, I I agree with all of that. I think um you know the since 2022, we've kind of been in this series of rolling bubbles. I would say I would say the immediate aftermath of like 2023 2024 was kind of like this reflationary bubble where like all like even like I remember Polygon going to like 134 billion and now it's you know I think sub two sub one something like that but like people just thought that oh FTX was the only problem let's reflate this bubble um then we reflated it I think that happened to a lot of vaults uh then in 2024 I think what people realized is

that um some of the alts were not probably as durable or fundamentally driven where the TAM wasn't as large as people thought and so you kind of had this rotation from you know BTC or ETH into Soul um from you know the polygons or lidos into world of the world into more fundamentally driven alts um and then I think you had the meme coins you had the kind of speculative nihilism era and I think we've kind of crossed basically all of those off in terms of process elimination and the industry has kind of come towards this whole idea of fundamentals is the only thing that matters and because DeFi is the only thing with fundamentals you know really kind of the industry is reanchoring to its roots and again we don't think that there's a hundred protocols that are

interesting there's probably five but that's kind of how the stock market works too uh you know there's not 10 data center providers there's four there's not 150 hyperscalers there's seven um and so like those same dynamics playing out here is not surprising and I think kind of what we also saw was the death of the kind of escape velocity strategy where you can farm out tokens at a high enough FTV to get yourself traction treasury runway um to then go off and challenge the incumbents. I think the solution for too many tokens uh and too much supply overhang has has been you know more tokens in some way and now that there's been sufficiently issued tokens I don't think there's going to be a ton of fast follows. So

like if you're a you know or M morpho you're probably not going to be challenged by a new lending uh protocol for at least the next three or four years and I would say the stable coins are in that position and I would say probably hyperlquid uh and maybe even things like unis swap although dlow is kind of coming to their business pretty quickly um the incumbents have never been as safe which is great because that means they're able to innovate on a level playing field um but there's plenty of good stuff that happened. Um, you know, the Black Rockck ETFs, the institutional adoption, a lot of just like window dressing for a future cycle, which I don't think is necessarily three or four years away. I think you continue

to see this stuff grind up. Uh, you know, with the ETF flows, like the Black Rockck ETF had 500 million of inflows yesterday, which was super surprising for Bitcoin. Um, and I think you're going to continue to see this industry be more linear, be less cyclical in terms of like the four-year cycle and be more driven by downstream currents like AI, uh, general risk appetite and just general institutional adoption. So overall, I think 2025 was positive, painful in some degree obviously with things getting kind of carted out, but we do have to kind of disabuse people of this notion that there is an old season.

Um, because that's not true. What is true is that the things that are fundamentally driven will continue to do well and it tees us up for 2026 because uh clarity which is the market structure bill um it seems like it will happen in Q1 and I think people have kind of gotten more bearish on recently but Michael maybe your take would be interesting to get on just like what what this means and and we've talked about just like equity research and stuff like that but maybe like more connotations to the altcoin universe. What what does it mean? >> Yeah. So before we get too far into the regulatory environment, I think one other kind of take on 2025, which also does kind of go into a take on 2026 projections, but

I think 2025 was a recognition that if you want to be, you know, X big and, you know, have the opportunity to have a token that's live and it's valuable and there there used to be a path where you could serve clients or customers that are cryptoindogenous and What I mean by that is you could be serving just like people who are in the crypto ecosystem. Um and and that is enough of a business or enough of a a protocol for you to build, you know, something that's su successful, whatever that definition is. And I think the recognition is that [clears throat] there are certain things that are cryptonative that will do super well. Um you know, hyperlquid is another I would say one of the biggest 2025 things to happen in general. I guess I

know it started in 2024, but it really took off in 2025. Um, and I would say that that is a case in point of something that does serve the cryptonnative audience. Um, but I think the recognition broadly is that the vast majority of things that are going to be successful in crypto are actually bringing things into the crypto universe that don't happen naturally within crypto. Um, and this is why I think from the outset we were saying things like energy, AI, um, financial services, like obviously financial institutions, you know, they can come on chain and like what does that actually mean? Are they moving their assets over? Well, you got Apollo Atre, you got Black Rockck Fiddle, you got tokenization of assets broadly, real world assets. We need a new term for it. We need to get rid of

that. But that is essentially what I mean. And [clears throat] and so like that that transition I think is going to take a really long time. But the biggest strides of that transition happened in 2025, which which kind of like leaves you like a step away from having a breakout, you know, year in 2026. And so going back to the original question on clarity or market structure where whatever we end up calling it um our view is that it's it's going to happen. There there are certain you know people who think it won't there are certain people who think it will. Um just like our read of the situation is is more positive than than negative. Um

now the question is what is in it and what are the definitions? The things that we know it will contain are definitionally what is a security, what is a commodity, um probably not going to contain things like what is it's going to push a lot of the rule making to the regulators. It's going to say CFTC you you regulate, you know, per and derivatives. Uh SEC, you regulate, you know, fundraising and securities offerings, etc., etc. Um and so [clears throat] I think it's just going to like no no pun intended is, you know, provide market clarity. Um, and that is super important because what people are waiting for, especially as we bring assets onchain or bring new businesses onchain, energy, AI, what what have you,

is the people who run those businesses or people who have that perspective on this on those industries need to have understanding of what these assets are. they need to know how they can um work within the confines of crypto and uh doing so I think will also provide coverage for the industry researchers or the equity researchers at these banks to actually start writing reports on them. Um every single security that's over a certain size um that trades in the stock market has uh coverage analysts and equity researchers who write reports on it usually on a quarterly basis. And this is one of the benefits of going, you know, and working with a bank uh for

financing is that the researchers start writing coverage about you and and there is, you know, this whole Chinese wall of if you are on on the banking side, you're not allowed to talk to the research side. They're supposed to be impartial. They all work at Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley, but you know, Chinese wall. Um, but the the the point is that once they start covering you, the industry starts to understand how to value you and they start writing reports with valuation metrics. And each one of these reports says, "We're choosing to do this valuation heristic." And so if you choose this valuation heristic at like a 10x price to earnings ratio, if your earnings go up another 2x, your valuation should go up 2x. Like that is

what we don't have in crypto. And so when we talk about what is the fundamentals basis of these new assets, it's not just fundamentals for fundamentals purposes. It's not so that we can say the buyback is X and like therefore token should be Y. It's it's every single one of these protocols is different. And so the the two things that I am looking forward to are number one and and Blockworks is actually doing a great job of this of standardizing a lot of the data when it comes to financial reporting and financial metrics. That standardization in the real world is called GAAP, generally accepted accounting principles. We don't have that in crypto. We could have that or should have that in crypto. So that's number one. Number two is people at these major banks who cover

crypto equities, Coinbase, Robin Hood, etc. are looking forward to being able to cover the crypto assets themselves. when you can have a research report for let's say Sky which is doing X in revenue and Y in profit and etc etc like they want to write that report because that's a new coverage area for them and it's it's novel it's interesting that would get a ton of readership and and I think as soon as we have market structure whatever that bill is we will be able to start to see these banks covering these assets because they'll know you know how to recommend them because ultimately that's what you're doing it's like are you recommending this as a buy sell or a old and they don't initiate coverage on things that are sales. That's not really the business that they're in. And and you do

have to start somewhere. So like, you know, even for things like Cororeweave that IPOed this year, no one would cover them for the first nine months. It was like, you know, Robert Baird Securities or like uh like my favorite one was remember the bank that was like JP JP. It wasn't JP Morgan. >> JPM Securities >> at JPM Securities. Not JP Morgan. like you're going to have the lesser research houses covering the alts first, but you will eventually get the big banks doing it, you know, if clarity goes through and >> and and Caner just put out hype, >> right? I mean, technically that is a coverage report on the hype the per data. Um, but like we're getting closer

to a point where people will be broadcasted the message through channels that they're used to seeing these things through, which is the most important thing. And I and I think to kind of disagregate the market, you know, what you're going to have is I think for 2026 I you know the and it's totally different than 2020 uh going into 2025 where people thought you know 200 300 400k Bitcoin. Um I I do think Bitcoin ETH and and Soul get to new all-time highs driven primarily by the ETF flows that are coming and the staking products that they will incorporate. Um, I think you'll have that be a surprising feature of 2026 just to see those doing well.

Um, I think you're going to see these kind of DeFi coins that are blue chip and are covered in clarity get their fair share, but then I think retail is actually going to have their their prayers answered where they're going to be less a part of the market um because there's going to be less tokens that are going to be launching. And and I think if I've seen one thing on crypto Twitter this year is just like CT wants less coins. I I think you you you now are going to have that dynamic. Maybe you'll have some kind of 2021 holdovers seek to launch their coins at the end of this year or next year. Um but really kind of like that that pipeline is broken. That supply chain of capital is broken. And I think it is broken for the better of the

industry because now the only things that will exist will be highquality uh projects and and I I think you know maybe putting out a different prediction here but all of these IPOs um maybe you can think of those in the same way and those are fundamentally driven businesses but like all the things that people invested in in 2021 that they tried to get out the door uh you know this year or next um I think what you're going to see is a lot of that similar dynamic plays out for the traditional equity where, you know, sure, like software companies theoretically should trade at high price to sales multiples, but we haven't seen that recently. And I think the reason that we haven't seen that recently is because there's been so many of them. And people can't disagregate which one's good versus bad

versus which one will stick along. Um, but I think if you IPO Anthropic, OpenAI, uh, SpaceX, Stripe, Canva, there's just not enough liquidity for these things. And the prices are going to be far below their private market marks. And that will be a moment that Trad has to go through, trad specifically, that I think cryptovc went through last year. But that that it's kind of all this larger project of like how do you price things accurately and how do you fix capital markets in the US >> and and this is not this is not [clears throat] a new phenomenon. If you recall right before uh Airbnb went public I believe um they had that

structured round that Silvergate did. >> Yep. >> Um that was like >> Yeah. Yeah. the the latest stage uh rounds that a lot of these preIPO companies, as they're called, will do are are highly structured. And and basically what that means is someone who knows that you're going to go public will literally put a covenant in there that says you have to go public in 18 months. And if you don't, I get a payment in kind of additional like 10% of my equity. Um and they will just structure this so that they're guaranteed not to lose basically. and they will have limited upside but but uh the upside will be something like they have a small percentage percent of your company to keep that valuation at a high level but they have like zero downside. It's

basically a call option is how they would structure it. I I do think that there's going to be a lot I I agree with that prediction which wasn't on our list but I agree with it. Um I I think there's going to be a lot of structured uh stuff that that makes IPOs happen. Um but it doesn't mean that the floating price will be above those structured prices. >> And you know you saw this with uh core week which was the hottest stock of the year until it hit unlocks. And it does feel like Tradfi is discovering things at roughly the same pace that crypto is which is like the mechanical supply demand imbalance is a real thing in any market condition in any coin. Doesn't matter the business. You're seeing this

with Hyperlid today. You even saw it with Robin Hood in you know 2022. It bottomed at $7 and it's now at like 130. Like there's just no escaping the financial gravity of you need a lower price point for your sellers to get out so that they can be matched by buyers. And it's a time dependent thing where if a buyer doesn't show up on the same day as a seller, you're now advertising that sell pressure into the future. And so it's just a process. But I think what crypto has going for it right now is Bitcoin, ETH and Soul are going to be recommended by Black Rockck. Sledigit percentage of your net worth goes into those. I think those flows are going to overpower the bare case. I think the DeFi alts are trading at such low pees and and maybe Hyperlid is an exception.

They're trading at probably 20 25x which is where the stock market is, but like you know sky is at like eight. Um, but they built the discipline of like no one will believe your story unless you're literally committing violence in the order books, aka buying your own token every single day with every single dollar that you produce. The tech companies have none of that discipline. And I think that lack of discipline from them combined with the complexity of the AI story getting more pronounced means that crypto probably has a better tailwind to deliver value and earnings in the near term than AI. And like I think this year was basically you throw a dart at the data center theme and it goes up 10x and everyone's super happy.

They need power. Now it's a question of like which one will be solvent? Who's working with open AI? Who's working with anthropic? Which chip is the one that you should do? Which data center designer is the one that you should use? And it's becoming less straightforward. And I think also the value prop of AI is getting pushed out further where you know next year is probably not going to be an explosive year in the same context as this year and the last as you know people get used to chat GPT being just a feature of their daily lives. Um and I think in a weird way the AI trade becoming more complex and stalling out a little bit gives crypto a lot of breathing room to run. And and I think the kind of logic is this. If AI is going to solve all society's problems

immediately, we're going to, you know, disag and and Bitcoin relies on kind of secular stagnation and the collapse of institutions. And I think ETH as well to some degree. Um, but if that is not the case and it looks like the national debt is not going to be solved, AI is not the cure all for all of our problems, I think Bitcoin specifically plays better in that world. So, just thematically, I think the AI trade cooling off. It can't fall apart, right? If it if it falls apart, then we're all kind of in trouble. But um if OpenAI can raise 100 billion, if we can kind of get to new levels of users without significant

churn and just keep it intact enough that there's like a not too hot, not too cold area for crypto that probably is very good in 2026. >> Yep. Um I mean [clears throat] going back to 2025 review a bit, uh as it leads into 2026, I I think you know what what what ultimately and this is maybe I'll I'll answer it but want to get your take as well. What do we call basically everything post uh October 10th? And like is that the end of the four-year cycle? Is it the death of the four-year cycle? Is that just your, you know, run-of-the-mill 30% selloff in a bull market? Um, obviously, we don't know

because it is still down. And so like the longer it it goes like the more uh the more clarity on the definition we get because it defines you know there's no V-shaped recovery. Um my my take generally is that we are at the end of the four-year cycle and I think that you know you kind of said this as well like if we do hit all-time highs of ETH BTC and Soul or just like some you know combination of two or three of them um [clears throat] that that it disproves that we're in a four-year cycle. Um, that's my base case. And the way that I describe this transition of retail capital to institutional capital is um, it's kind of like institutions are are not just like they're coming they're not

coming in in size or like on one day or in one quarter. It's like it's kind of like this global supervap on the major assets and they're thinking about it in terms of well I want to allocate you know half a percent this year 1% next year and then up to 3% the year after that and like so that it's just like this kind of like they're they're buying a little bit all the time and when you have the end of the four-year cycle and we heard from people on our team who were in Abu Dhabi that the the Asian whales sold all their Bitcoin or most of their Bitcoin and and the the logic behind it wasn't anything more so than oh it's the end of the four year cycle we'll just buy back lower and and so when you have a a global T-wap

that is like inherently just this slow kind of like buying buying buying but then you have this mad rush for the exits catalyzed by this like fake end of fourear cycle thing it's why you have a dip for 30% and because the the T-W can't sustain you know that much unified selling in in a shorter period of time. And I think 1010 was, you know, some event, but it it it was just like the it happens to be the one event that tipped, you know, the scales. It could have been it could have been something that happens in November or December or January. Who knows? It just but it happened to be 1010. Um, and maybe someone had a hole in their balance sheet that they needed to shore up. Who who knows? Um, it seems like it's it's

basically done now. And now we've kind of moved into like okay well tax loss selling for the end of the year or you know wash shell like what whatever it may be um locking in gains but like end of the year kind of takes over. Um and and so I think you know the prediction here is that we actually come back pretty strong in January and it happens pretty quickly. Um because you have a lot of people who will recognize that this isn't and if if we are in a four-year cycle and the word from from you know kind of the Asian whales who sold other BTC was well we'll just buy it back at 60K. It's like well we're we're trading at 85 right now. It's like do do you really think it gets down there?

are are you willing how long until you say, "Okay, well, I sold it at 105, but it's not going to get down to 60, so maybe I'm just going to buy it at 86." And and like that's where that time duration kind of like leads you in the direction of buying back in. And so I I I think there's going to be like some pretty, you know, volatile or or just like up down kind of movements as we've seen this week. I think that'll continue basically for the next 12 days, 13 days, rest of the year. But I think after that it's like the selling turns to buying pretty fast. Um, >> and the the one of the learnings I had from 2022 is like on a year where you hit a huge peak and then you come off significantly, you're going to have tax

loss selling at the end of the year. And usually people do it the week before Christmas. Not many people are trading markets actively the week of Christmas, maybe the week after, but you know, the selling does stop at some point and I think it's kind of time to be year end because there is a tax benefit to sell. Um let let's talk through um I mean stable coins just next year I think is is kind of >> where the market has settled as a >> most promising direction for kind of the industry at large and even like when we talk about people or when we talk to people about what framework is doing is mostly like we're working on stable

coins um and it becomes kind of this like language permission structure to work in crypto, but on something that is not kind of like nefarious or unregulated. And >> I think I was just going to interject and say like unpack what it's hard hard to hard to make a venture scale outcome on a uh on a dollar-based asset. [laughter] That's like the oh what is the stable coin going to go to like $2? It's like well yeah of course the stable coin isn't going to go to $2. The promise of this business model is that you have corporate equity or in you know probably our context a governance token that sits on top of a protocol that is issuing stable coins, lending stable coins or creating, you know, yield sources for

those stable coins. >> And I think what you're going to see next year is, you know, Clar USD, you'll probably see Stripe USD, you'll probably see a variety of other st I think SoFi actually just launched their stable coin today. Um, my prediction on those is that they're flops. And I don't think they're going to be flops because those organizations are not skillful. I think they're going to be flops. And I I would say maybe Stripe USD. I don't know if that's coming, but I would say that's kind of the exception. Um, they're going to be flops because they don't understand like what is going on inside of crypto. And I think what's going on inside of crypto is basically capital formation and yield distribution. and in a permissionless way. You know, there's

a there's product market fit for that as we've seen with USDS. But what we're going to see now is people doing energy lending, doing a doing AI lending, doing crypto capital markets lending, doing trade finance, structured credit, and seeking to get the backing of stable coins as the base layer for for their own TVL. And it'll become less about retail. And I think one downstream implication of that is like RWA looping. I can't tell if that's a feature six months from now of this industry or maybe it's just a flash in the pan. I've tweeted about it before, but retail capital I don't think is driving altcoin price discovery, price discovery of majors or frankly like onchain activity anymore. It seems to be a hundred to a thousand institutions with a ton of

money each 100 to a million to a billion that are really interested in this subjection of the economy and that's kind of like this captive customer base and I don't think the existing stable coin fintexs are going to be able to provide that same level of experience or set of trade-offs for the feature set and so I'm kind of bearish on those but I'm super bullish on just like the winners keeping to is staying on winning like circle growing tether growing sky growing going. Um, and I also don't see any new projects like Athena, you know, tried to hit escape velocity, lost 70% of its TVL. I I I think that they're going to be the last person that has tried that because it's just such a capital destructive uh strategy. So, so my prediction is maybe slightly

different but maybe similar in that um yeah so I I think the one of the data points is look at PIUSD and basically the lackluster uh TVL that it has. Pi Pi is PayPal which owns Venmo like this this should be the largest you know user they should be the largest you know payment stable coin because of Venmo just in and of itself. Um but it's not and nobody uses it. They also had the three trillion or 300 trillion bug or however big that was that they minted which I I think there's just like it doesn't seem like the A team is working on PIUSD. Um, but I do think that all of the different launches for PayPal, SoFi, um, Pla, what they are going to eat into

is basically circles lunch and they are going to be going after the institutionalized financial services application, fintech application, probably US- ccentric or European centric um, models that eat into uh, specifically Circle. And and so my my bet is that yes, circle from a total assets in USDC probably grows. I mean it definitely grows in 2026, [clears throat] but I I think that one of the narratives that pops off in 2026 is that Tether, which already has basically twothirds of the stable coin market, if not more, uh increases its market share by a substantial margin in 2026. And I think that that is going to

be driven by rest of world phenomenon. Um, Tether also has at least announced the USAT um, uh, Genius compliant stable coin for US centric stable coins um, stable coin adoption. I I'm guessing that that takes off as well um, just because of the Tether brand and and distribution. Um, and so I I I think yeah, stable coins is payment. stable coins in particular is going to be a really interesting place to watch in 2026 because it's going to be this fight where you've got, you know, competition if you're circle, you've got competition on on above you and you got competition below you. Like it's it's going to be really tough. Also a rate cutting environment where you are going to suck

for for the people who are genius compliant. And I think a a real re-evaluation of whether you want to be genius compliant is probably in the cards for most stable coin issuers. And I think it makes sense um from a business perspective like tether where you can issue a genius uh compliant stable coin and genius compliant basically means you're backed up by T bills uh in cash but your business is based around what is the yield of those T bills. So if your core business if your entire business is going to be based around that which is the case for circle it's going to be very difficult to to have that be kind of your business. Um and Circle remember gives up much of their yield. Um we'll see how

this works but at least there is rumors and discussion around whether or not that's going to be a remaining capability um based on the market structure. That was something that was blessed in Genius, but it it's question as to whether that's persisted after market structure. Um my guess is it probably is but it there is a question. So like if that doesn't happen then what happens to the growth metric the growth vehicles for circle and USDC because a lot of that is Coinbase. Um and so if yeah I I'm I think this is going to be one of the most fascinating places to watch. Um all that being said your your description of like yield coins or you know businesses that you're bringing on chain like that is not payment stable coins just to be clear. What you basically take is the payment stable

coin which is deliverable to a dollar uh redeemable for a dollar and you give that to a business who's doing you know GPUbacked lending. Um and and so that I think is is like kind of the most interesting place to play from a venture perspective but also just like bringing businesses on chain in 2026 >> and and like all the asset man like the fintexs that are trying to launch stable coins are kind of one bucket and and what they want is like savings products. They want to announce some crypto stuff to, you know, drag their multiples higher. But I think the asset managers of of the world have capital to contribute to the onchain economy, the Apollo, the Black Rockcks, the uh different private equity firms that we talked to. Um, but they also, you know,

are looking for uh capital to come from crypto into them and and just the origination side to kind of flow both on and offchain. So like I think when we started investing in crypto long long time ago um there were no fundamentals. I remember we bought like what was the chain link ICO at? Like 60 million bucks 70 million bucks FTV. >> 32 million FTV. >> 32 million FTV. Um and you know it went from that to it was it 10 cents, right? The ICO for Chain Link, >> right? like you know it was it was probably between I remember the first real kind of like summer that we got bullish and we realized we're holding on to something special was like that$2 to3

move when they were announcing like the Google partnership and that Google partnership you know it's like various stages of becoming real at that point but right now I think there's a lot of assets that are still at that$ two to3 dollar price point like that$1 billion dollar FDV that have a ton of revenue and earnings that are just left behind by the market and and it's like It doesn't feel like the last bare market where everyone was convinced that this was going to be a real industry and like we just needed to get Sam out of the way. It feels more like the 2017 bare market where people are just like fundamentally uncertain about sticking around and those are the things that produce the most hyper concentrated violent rallies and the things that are working uh on the small side on the alts and then on the on the large side like

the Bitcoin ETH the soul like I think there's different dynamics there where people just believe like relative to stocks like is this a value bet but I think at the end of this year you know the data center trade got cut by 60% % the space trade got cut by 60%. Quantum got cut by 60%. Um, Bitcoin, ETH and Soul have kind of hung in there. And so I think kind of everything is priced to to double or triple in the crypto complex on the major side. But on the alts, like if you're a sharp person, I I I don't think there's any higher risk return environment for you than than being in DeFi and understanding which coins are are going to be driving the next era of this evolution. Um, one one just to go back to it real fast because

I want to put this on the recording so we could revisit it in a year from now, but uh my my prediction is that we end up with somewhere between 600 and 750 billion of stable coins on chain by the end of 2026. I like that. So it's not not quite the billion dollar mark, but the idea is with a clearing of the path of genius earlier this year, we've seen at least internally we've seen probably tens of proof of concepts at banks, uh, financial institutions. They were a lot of them were waiting basically for this to pass and they had, you know, previous work done, but a lot of them are starting fresh. And I think in 2026, you start to see those proof of concepts go live, which is where you're going to start to see, you know, SoFi

has their dollar that they had announced. Uh, you know, CLA has theirs. And while I don't think that those are going to be this huge value drivers, there are many banks and financial institutions that are working on chains, uh, where they're going to integrate an existing, you know, stable coin. Um, so I I'm I'm guessing that we at least double, if not one and a halfx, uh, in terms of total, uh, stable coins by next year. Um maybe let's talk about just like the cryptovc dynamic right now. I think you know the initial take on 2026 is that I think people will be surprised that some folks have been able to raise significant sums of capital to continue investing in this industry. Um I think

frankly like the existing firms have been burned on any round that's higher than a billion probably any round that's higher than 500 and so like the valuations are going to compress. I think what you're also seeing is probably like this like 50% to community idea has been thrown out the window. So that necessitates kind of like a cap table reconstruction. Are twice as many tokens going to insiders? Like I'm sure retail would not love to hear that. But like I think there is this wholesale rethinking of how you even fund a crypto protocol. >> Um and then I think there's the reality that a lot of these firms are going to have to pivot to doing something more liquid. And again there's not like it's not like a basket of like a hundred different tokens that you can build and

feel confident in. But like the firms that are going to make it are going to be those that are really convicted in one, two or three assets and that goes like a thousandx. So like you know one idea of that is like tempo. you know, maybe that's not liquid, but like it's like a big chunky venture bet that can carry a fund and and like Paradigm has a lot of hype, too. Um, one example of that is Thea with the Metadow token. And like I I personally don't fully see the ownership thesis, but I give them a lot of respect for doing a ton of research and being high conviction and high concentration in one idea. Um, but I think what you're going to need is you're going to need to see these VCs either doing venture building to use their capital or doing liquid because

there's just not enough private market deals to do, you know, 500 million, a billion into uh, as the industry currently stands. And then I think there's this broader idea of like if you're going to um, be a venture fund, like are you really going to rely on people walking through the door and blowing your mind with like a new crypto idea? I just don't think that's realistic in terms of where we are with the technology or just like the GP's understanding of what it's useful for relative to the entrepreneur. So, I mean, that's my take at least. Michael, like what's what's your kind of thought? >> Wholeheartedly agree that the the venture landscape right now, um, it's just the it's the tale of two cities.

It's the halves and the have nots. And if you have, it means that you can raise capital and you can continue on as a firm. And if you have not, um, it frankly means that you're probably coming back with like 15 to 25% of your target for your fund raise. Um, whatever [clears throat] that may be. And then it's a question of is venture the right strategy for what you're trying to do and does the, you know, 30 person team that you have really, you know, map to your business, which means, you know, your 2% management fees on on this on this new fund that's 20% the size of what you expected it to be. I I think that that's going to trickle down into what are these investment rounds looking

like and [clears throat] you're going to have to bas basically founders are going to have to go through austerity um is my take um where you're not going to be able to have you know 40 50 people uh at your your protocol and expect to be able to raise you know another $25 million just to be able to subsidize the cost of having that large of a team. Um and and I think people, you know, in in the same way, um that 2022 provided an opportunity. Um you're going to have a lot of quiet quitters. You're going to have a lot of people who are just like willing to kind of throw the keys back and be like, "It's yours now." Um I I think you're also going to have, you

know, some people, some founders who are just going to stick through it. Um those are going to be the ones to to double down on and it's very clear who is who and who is not. Um, and yeah, I think and one more, the OGs are going to become irrelevant, and that's going to be really tough >> if they're not already. Um, but I I I think the like there there's this kind of joke analogy that we've been using internally where it's like, who who is that uh the Japanese warrior who's been hiding out on the island for 30 years following the the end of World War II? a lot of people that are were obsessed with decentralization or obsessed with you know we need to make this like whole thing onchain and it's just it's just it

doesn't have product market fit. It's not personal but those are no longer going to be the torchbears of this industry >> and and totally agree and um going back to something I said earlier but like you're not going to be able to rely on your customer base coming from crypto. You have to be willing to sell and build product that people want for people who are not or customers who are not like crypto audience members, crypto Twitter members. And and I think that is like the the hardest realization for a lot of people because it sucks. you've got like a two to three year build program and and and you're testing iterating your product and you're you're planning for this fourth year in the four-year cycle where you can launch it and you know at

retail audience and it's an alt season and but that never happened and so what do you do now and how do you put the genie back in the bottle and and I think the other element that so this is a this is one of my predictions for 2026 is um I'll get to it but it's basically an expansion of the multiple Um whereas right now if you are a crypto founder and you haven't launched a token if you want to launch a token right now I think you said this but like hyperlquid trades somewhere between 18 to 24x depending on you know how you calculate you know market cap to to earnings not even just revenue um and 97% 99% of their revenue is earnings so it's the same but the idea is okay that is the aberration

because they have you know literally hype uh around their asset and protocol. But most assets in DeFi right now trade somewhere between like a six to 7 to 10x. Like that's that's what you're you're looking at from a price to earnings perspective. And [clears throat] so if you are a founder and you're planning on launching a token, the question is if you're talking about valuations, it's like if you have a $60 million valuation, like what you have to expect is that investors are underwriting you to be earning a a $10 million earnings in, you know, let's call it three to five years. Like how how are you built like the conversation turns to well, how are you building

that, you know, justification? like how are you actually getting the like who are your customers? what are what's the revenue and like what's your cost structure around that and and so I think it's a very sobering kind of realization for a lot of people um when either you're thinking about raising capital and what's the valuation that you should you know put your protocol or or if you're thinking about launching your asset and how do you comp this to the rest of the universe of other digital assets and tokens that are out there right now it's like it it is uh it is a buyer market um and and so I think it's it's just very very tough in that respect event. Granted, I do think that with market structure bill, with you know a realization of what we have called before dispersion, which is like

assets that have fundamentals and and a path to getting there, um are going to perform better than ones that don't, you're going to start to see the multiple increase. That seven maybe turns to a 15, maybe turns to a 25. Um and you're going to have more excitement around assets that have a a a process towards getting there. And and you know this happened throughout every single tech wave before when you had the SAS business model people would underwrite it because they'd say oh well we've seen what Salesforce can do and actually if you cut cost you're able to get these customer lockins that have an average duration lifetime value of like six to seven years like that's amazing and we can just like print cash as we sell these you know seats per or licenses whatever now you've got AI and people

are looking at it and they're saying well if you know if you assume the cost structure comes down over time like these are highly profitable businesses is and like markets are fantastic at looking forward you know three five 10 years but right now we don't have any examples to prove this is how it could work this is how it could look and I I think that 2020 states broadly is a recognition of how this could look um and I think what trickles down from that is is a recognition of the multiples increasing a recognition by the multiples increasing >> right like in traditional attack it's like the multiples bottomed out for SAS after the dotcom crash and then kind of like broadly after the great financial crisis. Then you saw private equity

firms start to buy these SAS companies, you know, you start because they were low PE. Then you saw public markets start to buy the public software companies because they were, you know, medium PE and all of a sudden everything's trading at 25 to 30x. And so like there is no PE equivalent for crypto in terms of buying tokens. It's kind of like, you know, you buy them for the earnings and you buy them because there's the possible of principal appreciation on the token itself. So, I think what you're going to see is, you know, when when things get cold, people huddle huddle towards the the fire. Uh, and there's only going to be a couple fires burning next year, which I think is totally good. Um, we we need to walk the industry back from this idea of we're going to have a ton of breadth and

you just need to throw uh a dart at random at an altcoin and it will 10x. that is just the worst conditioning that you could have and it and it leads to a lot of bad outcomes. Uh and it leads to a draw down when tokens launch. Uh but I think we're moving past that and while we were talking uh David Saxs actually tweeted. Uh we had a great call with chairman Tim Scott and John Booman who confirmed that a market for clarity is coming in January thanks to their leadership as well as French Hill and Congressman GT in the House. We're closer than ever to passing the landmark crypto market structure legislation that President Trump has called for. We we look forward to finishing the job in January. Look, we we say this at Framework, but you either have business fundamentals or you have a Black Rockck

ETF. It's one of the two B's. And it frankly, like business fundamentals is is going to be how 99% of these things, you know, actually have a sustainable value for their token. And and market structure bill, clarity, whatever it's called, is the path to making that happen. It's um yeah I mean it is it is tough because a lot of the people who got us at least part of the way here are these kind of decentralization people retail who wants to do memecoins or you know speculate on just like financial nihilism and and the industry is not taking that path. So, I think a more professional industry, all-time highs for the majors, and DeFi catching a serious bid is kind of the base case for 2026

with I think this potential for a fast takeoff scenario. If you see the fintexs, if you see the asset managers, everyone integrate, but still, I think, you know, crypto is only possibly able to produce these hyperconentrated rallies and I would expect that to be the case for 2026. Um, and let's see just kind of what else. I mean, maybe prediction markets is one to cover >> 100%. I mean, the >> I think it's going to be a tough year for prediction markets next year. >> I I think look, prediction markets came onto the scene in a wild way um in in 2024. Uh what I will say is that everyone including ourselves expected that basically you know volume goes down

90% the day after the election. I I've I've been surprised to see the amount of interest and excitement around prediction markets in general. Um I do think that we have kind of like crossed into this new realm of these are just going to be like a mechanism and a and a and a construct that exists kind of forever. Um, and we'll see how big they get or or how they're paired against things like options or derivatives or what what have you. Like I I do think that there is some novelty to this um from a consumer perspective. Um remains to be seen on the financial side. And so like for instance, if you wanted to if you're a financial institution, you want to bet on what the interest rate

decision will be by the FOMC on a given date, there are tons of financial instruments and trades that you can put on to do that. Or you could go on poly market and say will will the FOMC get cut 25 basis points next meeting is it 50 or is it 75 or zero like who like that stuff I think makes it approachable from a new way from a new kind of like perspective which brings in consumers in retail and now there there is a a really really big question which I I think is something that is unsolved right now which is market surveillance And what I mean by this is in every single securities market, you have market surveillance, you have securities

laws, the SEC exists in and the CFTC exist for very important reasons, which is to make sure that markets are structuring in a proper way. If you have inside information and you trade with that inside information and you're caught, you go to jail. And that threat keeps markets fair. And if you don't have fair markets, ultimately what happens is I think um what what has happened time and time again, which is that markets kind of degrade to zero over the long duration because people will will recognize that they're just getting competed away by the sharks, by the whales, by the people who have that inside information. And like one of the one of the examples when

we were starting framework that one of our lawyers told us was you kind of had this like um third-party platforms for fundraising for like individual loans and like you would package these things up and it would be like you could lend to this person and and kind of like what SoFi started as in a lot of ways and over time it was like you could lend capital and people would pay you back over time. Um, but ultimately what happened was there were like three hedge funds that took over the entire market just because they were sharper, they were bigger, they were better and and cost capital was lower for them. And and I think that that same dynamic, same phenomenon could happen if they don't sol if these prediction markets don't solve market surveillance. And look, if you're a founder, if if I'm Shane or if

I'm the Koshi founder, like I actually want market surveillance because it allows me to say, hey, like it's fair to trade here. you're you're okay uh if you come and like place a bet. Um and it's um you know whether it was Binance who had the hole in their balance sheet after 1010 or whatnot, but but no matter what they did is they they made sure that their customers were happy because if you blow up your customers time and time again, you're going to lose them each time and over time it degrades to zero. And so I I I am um my prediction I guess for prediction markets is that we have some answer for what market surveillance looks like for these for these predition markets.

>> I could see that. I mean I think the Google insiders and like the other insiders trading on these things has kind of brought this to the force. So there's not too much time now uh in terms of the the government reacting. >> Oh wait, one one thing. So like there's the SEC and the CFTC who govern markets, but on the flip side, you could have a situation where like um in the case of sports, it's the sports leagues that adjudicate whether or not you can place bets on sports and like the default is a lifetime ban like Pete Rose. Um and so like it doesn't have to come from a regulator is my broad point. Like it could be like if you work at Google, Google could implement an employee policy that says you're not allowed to trade, you know, on on poly market for

Google related things. Maybe the last thing to cover is just like the macro, the midterms, the uh the Trump uh effect. I I I think kind of my view is as follows and curious to get yours, but you know, interest rates are going to go down. Kevin Kevin Hasset Kevin Hatchet you will you will be cutting rates uh I think Powell's term is up in May >> so that you know you'll probably get one other cut in January but like I think the really interesting thing to think about is like where is the actual floor for sofur for the fed funds rate um you know they are two meetings away from cutting twice and it being at three but

that is even before Hasset would take his place as one of the governors and have I think three more meetings through the rest of the year to cut rates. So there's like actually a lot of time to get these rates down and uh if they're working at the same clip of like 25 a meeting that's probably like a two and a half% sofer by the end of next year and I think with that comes a steepening yield curve. So like there's more term premium which is basically you get paid to take risk that's further dated and also more credit spread. So credit spreads are historic lows. You probably get paid to take uh more risk outside of the Treasury market. And so I think you're going to see kind of these two opposing forces where we're cutting rates like it's going out of style, but

at the same time the shape of the yield curve and credit spreads are getting wider. Um overall the price of money going down means that assets probably go up. Uh and so bullish on that. I do think we will have one midterm freakout where people don't well people think it's going to be a Democratic sweep. Right now, the best odds on poly market are 5050 uh for, you know, the Senate goes to the Republicans. Uh the Democrats get the House. Um which wouldn't really impact things too much, but it would kind of make Trump a lame duck, which which may actually be a bullish thing. Um usually the most bullish year of presidencies are the third year. So that would set up 2027 to be quite nice. But yeah, that's kind of my take. Maybe we can get yours and then and then wrap it.

>> Yeah, I think [clears throat] so. Fed dot plot suggests two more cuts, two more 25 basis point cuts. Anything more than that is a surprise. I think um dot plots are probably not the best metric to use right now just because it's like we don't know who the new Fed chair is going to be. So like who knows what influence that may have. Um I I would guess that we probably end the year somewhere on the low end of Fed funds rate. So like right right now Fed funds is 35 to 375. I bet we end the year at at below like with it with a number below three. Um where it's 275 to three or 25 to 275, who knows? Like somewhere around there. Um I agree that that's bullish. The reason why we have credit

spreads so low is because people assume that Apple, uh Microsoft, uh Google, they have better credit than the US government. >> [laughter] >> And so I think that you know is definitely an interesting phenomenon where their their spread their yield or their their their uh uh debt is inside of the treasury. So I I think that that will naturally change. I think it could also change if you start to see more capex spend especially on the the hyperscaler side. Um so I I agree with all of that. I think um there will be a freakout. I I think there will be, you know, some 10 15% crash. You just have to go into the year planning for that to

happen. So, like don't overlever yourself uh and get caught in 1010 or or March 9th or May 9th, whenever that was. Um I I think the the um what my other prediction from uh like specific uh industry specific perspective which I think is now kind of macro at least US GDP related is I I think AI comes back in a material way. Um and what I mean by this is um what we are basing so much of the AI industry on over the last uh 12 and and 18 months has been the progression of the different models in particular chat GPT Gemini um in in chat GPT five was

kind of a lackluster launch um and and this is you know kind of perspective from Gavin Baker but also some of the other perspectives broadly is we haven't yet seen um what it what's called the blackwell chips being utilized to to train these models. >> I like this a good t >> and um we we've been using hoppers. Hoppers are air cooled. Uh the black wells are are multiple more uh compute units tokens per energy unit. And they started they basically shipped and installed black wells starting in the second half of this year. And it takes six to 10 months to train these, you know, large language models or any other model in and of itself. And and so I think in 2026 we see the largest

prediction is we see the largest increase in model um improvement broadly whether it's you know efficiencies, capabilities um or or potentially even use cases. Um so 2026 will represent the largest increase in baseline models coming into the year. baseline models ending the year. Um, particularly because we're going to see the GB300 really at scale, which is the the high-scale uh Blackwell uh chip um used to train these models. XAI has been the the um the largest user of Blackwell units to date. Um Google obviously has the TPU. TPU is not up to scale quite with the GPU uh in terms of this

step-wise function. And so I think Gemini, which is kind of in the lead right now, ends the year in 2026 probably lower than first. I think it still improves quite a bit, but it doesn't improve as much as some of the GPU or the the blackwell trained uh models uh in the year. Um and so I think all of this just like these massive improvements in these models leads to a really big resurgence in interest, capital, and kind of market for AI. um which I I don't think kills crypto to your you know kind of previous uh perspective of like there's kind of a a spread trade here but I do think that it does kind of reinvigorate the interest

in the models themselves and the technology themselves and actually I think that this comes into play in crypto via the AI protocols and and platforms in crypto um cryp uh AI over the last 12 months has been capex uh dominated and that's been the narrative. I don't think you have the same level of capex. So you don't have the impact on GDP, but I think the technology of AI like the actual use cases and applications um that is where you see a lot of the excitement in the next 12 months. >> It's it's very true. It's it's like an AIdriven cycle and it's very capex heavy and crypto stands to benefit from things that are capex heavy because it is a capital rich area of the tech universe and so the convergence of those trends I

don't think like hosting models on chain or like hugging face onchain that makes as much sense but it's an extremely bullish tailwind for the industry and for next year and I think you know what we have to look forward to of next year is you know hopefully new all-time highs that's certainly the camp that we're in uh DeFi alts going absolutely parabolic if they're really regulated and communicating clearly uh as well as just the AI capex tailwind continue to pick up. We talked about the data center trend being absolutely eviscerated at the end of this year but we have never seen a model that's been trained with a blackwell and with black wells the important thing to understand is that we've gone from air cooling to liquid cooling. we've gone from a certain level of density to two or three orders of magnitude higher uh in terms of

computing power and so it's just extremely bullish for if you're going to see you know that step change for open AI or anthropic it will be through these new models which will be directly or indirectly financed by stable coins so I think a lot to be positive about going into 2026 I think 2025 we've done like the really tough work of like you know if you've got like a body that is infected with gang and green, you need to cut off those limbs. And I think we've just eviscerated those limbs. And maybe we have like one leg and, you know, like half an arm, but like we're regrowing them in a more productive direction. And I think that's about as much as the industry can really hope for it. It's not a nuclear winter. There's fundamentally things being driven.

There's inflows from these ETFs, but we really do need to leave behind the [ __ ] the memecoining, the NFT [ __ ] the overfocus on decentralization. Um, and you don't need to disavow these things, but you just need to kind of move past those as the focal point of this industry because it's just not. >> And I'm to wholeheartedly agree with all that. I'd say the last things I would say are um [clears throat] when you look back at a year, it it it is predicated on your your happiness over a period of time is predicated on what were your expectations and then did you live up to them. And when you start the year with the highest potential expectations, like basically anything is going to be a let

down unless we hit like 250k BTC, which is never going to be the case in the first place. And and so I think people had to take, you know, doses of medicine. They had to readjust their plans and they had to, you know, readjust their like business models. Um and so I think that that has been a lot of pain this year because of it. Um, and I think when I look forward um, into 2026, like just imagine the feeling when BTC is at 126K and and you're, you know, back above all-time highs and, you know, it's like, oh well, the four year cycle is over. Wait, I I need to recreate my entire mental model for this entire industry. Like that that's going to happen in 12 months. And and so I think

like that's what I look forward to. Um, and I'm I'm excited for 2026 because of all the downstream implications of that effect. Um, which which are vast for the industry and and for industries adjacent to it. Well, um, in 2026, you can also I predict that we will have a pod name and we will be we will be podcasting. I'm g I'm going to say weekly. Uh hopefully it's weekly, but I think you know generally like we've gotten so busy with good things that uh you know there's a duty to the audience that the people who still ride with us that you know we're going to get these updates and interviews and interesting philosophical conversations out. But it'll be under a new banner and and hopefully um reinvigorated focus with uh

with two of us and and more of a San Francisco vibe. So yeah, thanks everyone for a great year >> and and in 2026 soon come there'll be more announcements on the positive things um which gives us more time to uh focus on podcasting. So we're coming back. >> Couple big framework announcements. All good things. Um thank you everyone. Merry Christmas. Happy holidays from both of us. We'll see you in 26.