Zeneca on whether the four-year crypto cycle will end

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show that's as satisfying as squeezing in one last summer barbecue I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we're joined by zenica we'll be answering a few important questions will this cycle be different than past Cycles will the foure year cycle continue forever when will it end if it does end and is this cycle the start of a super cycle now before up in 56% of you do not subscribe to our Channel subscribe by the end of August and you could win a free milroad Pro annual subscription valued at $250 check the details in the show notes

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we have these consistent four-year Cycles in the market which if you step back seems almost ridiculous that markets could be that predictable um and it's kind of LED everybody in crypto to feel a bit like oh that's just the way Cycles work they always follow the happening and these fouryear Cycles will these four-year Cycles last forever what are your thoughts no they won't like that's end of podcast um I think I think everyone if they're being honest and think about it uh can agree that these foure Cycles will not last forever they can't if if it just happened that every four years you'd have like a bull market

that tops you know 12 18 months after the harving and then a three-year bare market and then a bull market again and it just keept happening every four years after four years after four years more and more people would take notice more and more people would like just buy the bottom and sell the top and when that starts to happen it just changes the Dynamics of the market and it just it just can't possibly continue forever um there's no infinite money glitch like that uh that exists forever it's kind of worked for the last couple of Cycles uh but I think even last cycle in 2020 2021 a lot of people were saying uh similar to what I'm kind of saying now which is these fouryear Cycles can't keep going it's going to be different this time you can't just pretend or predict uh what's

going to happen this time based on last couple of cycles and then it did happen and what I've heard people say in uh in response to that is now well you know what I'm just going to believe in the fouryear cycle until proven otherwise I think it's worked in the past I've even thought this and said this myself as well it's worked in the past uh it's lining up like it might work again let's just believe in it and just like buy and sell accordingly um and then at some point we agree it's going to stop and then we'll change our strategy and I think that's kind of fine and kind of reasonable but I think the pendulum might have swung too far back where I think too many people are now just sort of relying on these fouryear cycles and making significant financial decisions based on the

expectation that things will follow along like they have in the past and I think that's where things start to get extremely risky and dangerous is when people expect and rely on um the future to uh play out like it has in the past now obviously there's a reason for these fouryear Cycles can you just sort of touch on a couple of the factors like these aren't totally uh random is not the word but there there is um a lot of EX a lot of factors that are affecting this and causing this fouryear cycle because if we understand the factors then I think we might be able to say hey is this the end now or is this going to continue for another few Cycles yeah yeah so um mean the the most

obvious and Garing one is the Bitcoin harving every four years roughly the the um amount of Supply that's distributed to minor uh is halfed and as Supply goes down if demand stays the same price will go up and let alone if demand goes up um and so that that's been a good reason that people have always pivoted around these fouryear cycles and you combine that with things like um the M2 money supply and and interest rates and just general fiscal policy and you can really start to see oh there's a lot of external factors that also contribute to this this cyclical rate of um the cyclical fouryear cycle and I don't want to dismiss those because those are important factors and they're worth paying attention to and they are very valid reasons for why we see number go

up and down predictably on these foure Cycles but I I still just believe that it it can't continue forever and you the the the I I've been reading and watching a lot of um the author Morgan how lately he wrote the psychology of money and um he has this great quote where he says um try and think about the like the next big market crash or the next like the the things that will cause people to lose money are things that you cannot possibly predict you can't fathom what's going to happen Co 911 uh you know uh Wars all these kind of things and there will be something like that that happens again and it completely throws

everything off kilter and I think that far too people are uh sort of preparing for that and everyone's like oh it's going to be Rosy and we're going to have a blowoff top in 2025 then it's going to crash then we'll have a bare market for a few years and we'll go go up again and as the world changes as uh people's Financial positions change like there's there's there cost of living crisis out there there's entire massive macroeconomic problems geopolitical problems in the world and I think that uh it it's just too risky in my in my view now to just continue to to rely on these foure Cycles I want to uh get into so the

question obviously is how do you plan for it and what next but before we do that I just want to mention quickly uh and I I wonder if you you would know this we did an episode a few weeks ago linked to that if you guys didn't hear this this is an episode with Kyle where he showed us that this has actually happened once before where we were in a period of fouryear Cycles for 20 years following the second world war so following the second world war starting I believe it started in I can't remember it started I think it started in 49 and every four years reliably and this pre- crypto so nothing to do with crypto you can follow the stock market and see the exact same for year cycles and you know it's similar to that time

versus this time is the monetary policy post-war they printed a ton of money to inject into the economy and get the economy going again because everybody came back to the war everybody wasn't working like it took a long time to get the economy going and so interesting to know that this has happened again and it did end that time when it happened so in the same way it's going to end again it's super I hadn't um seen that episode or heard that and that that's fascinating uh especially because you mentioned it lasted about 20 years and if you think we're coming up on 20 years for for Bitcoin um after one more quote unquote fouryear cycle uh and you know

Bitcoin was in part A a reaction to the global uh GFC in 2008 and Money's been printed and and we've had this uh era of uh I don't know if abundance is the right word but just money flowing Every Which Way and again it it has to come to an end whether it's now whether it's in four years whether it's in 8 years whether it's in 3 years or seven years is I I just think that uh not not enough people are thinking about it and it's almost the the risk to me comes from when it's expected when it's a given when you put all your eggs in the basket when um you you adjust your your strategy based on uh the idea that it's it's going to follow these foure cycles

and so you mentioned before like what what can people do about it what should we be thinking about and how should we be approaching it and I think it is ultimately going to change for everyone's financial position this is Financial advice everyone has is in a different place in life but I think think about like what what would H ask yourself the question what would happen if we don't follow the fouryear cycle what would happen if in 2025 the markets crash or what would happen um alternatively if in 2025 markets go up and then in 2026 they go up again and 2027 they go up again like I'm not be posting doom doom posting here uh I'm just saying there are alternative uh outcomes and if you expect the four year Cycles you might sell in 2025 waiting to

buy back in 2026 2027 and that might never happen we have ETF inflows and we might just have this more gradual grind upwards and you might miss out on most of those gains because you're you're expecting this big crash and this this three-year bare Market um similarly if it does crash next year you might hold your bags um just you know thinking oh it's just a temporary blip it's going to go back up and then you hold all the way down and so I think by thinking through the various possible scenarios and anything is possible like every scenario is possible World War III could break out and everything could crash 90% um nothing is off the table nothing is guaranteed in life think about like what does that mean for you what does that mean for your future your family does you know are you are you risking more

than you should be are you not taking enough risk like there are all sorts of things to think about and I just think these are important questions to be asking yourself yeah I think it really proves the need for uh having a very strong plan and your plan has to involve what is your stop loss and at what points are you taking profit and too many investors buy without that plan and it's true nobody knows if this is going to be another four-year cycle let me just quickly say if this is another four-year cycle we still have about a year to go if this is another fouryear cycle so if it is we still got time and

let's be real because everybody loves to talk in fouryear cycles and M2 money supply is picking up right now so we are a lot of the alarm bells are going off saying yes this could be another one of those and the election is coming up which is always good for markets and so like and and and but there also is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy right like if everybody says it's for your cycle you're gonna look for hey these are all the things that say yeah yeah we're in another cycle but I think it does come back to as you said is don't plan based upon the cycle plan based upon your financial objectives and your financial needs and that involves diversification and a simple plan where you are not just leaving everything in one asset or

leaving everything on the table but you're taking profits as you go your DCA in your DCA out like it sounds so obvious and so simple but so many people don't do these things where where do you think we are at in this cycle currently how are you planning right now based upon maybe this thesis that like hey these fouryear Cycles are going to come to an end yeah um so I've said before I think that there's probably an 80% chance that 75 to 80% chance that we get a fouryear cycle the bull market continues for another 6 to 12 months and we see a crazy appreciation from here but that that means there's a 20 25% chance that we don't and that prices uh either crash significantly stagnate slowly go down um some other scenario that's not uh a giga

market and I'm uh approaching that by doing a bit more selling now at this point in the cycle than I've done in previous Cycles previously I just held everything um including not taking enough profits during the 2025 year or the 2021 here the crazy bull market um and so I I understand that I might be losing out on some profits by selling now um in case they they do go up more in the future but I'm also hedging against if if the scenario is that things crash I a will have uh liquidity to buy the dip I think one thing that I talked to so many people in this space and anytime there's uh a correction like we saw with the the Japanese Market correction of a few weeks ago people are

like oh I'd love to buy the dip but I have no I have no liquidity I'm all in on crypto I all my money is in Bitcoin E salana memecoins nfts I don't have any spare stables and I think that that is just a common theme across almost everyone I speak to in the space it is rare when you find someone um who is sitting on you know 25% of their portfolio in stable coins 50% in stable coins even 10% in stable coins not that many people and it's the exception and so I want to be in that position where if there is a another Co or if there is some massive if the whole Market crashes 50% 80% I'm not going to be running and selling and and taking money like I believe in this for the next decade next hundred years the rest of my life I want

to be able to buy those dips I want to be able to seize those opportunities and in order to do that you need to take profits at certain points and so if you're sitting on a balance portfolio now where you have 10 15 20% in stable coins 30 40% in Bitcoin 20% e salana and you're in a fantastic position and you probably just keep doing what you're doing but if you found yourself you're 100% Allin on crypto um maybe consider like some alternative uh scenarios again it depends if you're 19 years old you've got you know a job on the side you're making some money you're comfortable with risk and uh you want to just set yourself up for life then great go all in even play with leverage if if you you've got a crazy highrisk tolerance

and just try and you know 10x 100x your portfolio in the next four years because if the fouryear cycle plays out fantastic if not you're back to square one but you're young you can start again you're not going to it's worth the risk right is what you're saying I think it is you know okay to shoot for a 100x if you're willing to lose it all because very good chance you will if it was easy to 100x everyone would do it right exactly and and like if you're starting with $5,000 it's a lot easier to 100x that than if you're starting with a million dollars uh it's probably easier to to double your money with a million dollars then then anyway um but there's a concept there that that comes to mind it's the concept of an asymmetrical bet where the upside is so much more than

the downside and if you think about it if um you hear this with memec coins all the all the time like it's possible to 100x or goes to zero and you going to Zero sucks but 100x can make up for a lot of going to zeros it's a similar concept when you're young and you take on some risk you're going to zero is just you take Tak one step back if you're in your 40s with a family and a house and kids and uh all these Investments and you go to zero then that's like taking a thousand steps backwards and you don't want to be taking that sort of risk but when you when you're young and and don't have you know um dependence and all that kind of stuff you can generally afford to take risk I'm not saying everybody should and there are many multiple approaches and

just like slowly compounding over years is a great strategy as well but it again it just depends on who you are and where you are and your risk tolerance and all that yeah one thing I think that's important to be clear about is why do people plan around these foure Cycles or why are people so attached to these fouryear Cycles is because the market psychology in these fouryear Cycles is very extreme you go through all the feelings and it's very predictable and there's just huge fomo right huge huge fomo and where I think there's really big fomo is I think there's a lot of fear of the super cycle concept there's a lot of people who are very afraid well if Bitcoin is going to

whatever a million 10 million Michael sailor level by 2043 or whatever his projection was um whatever you think okay so if it's going to that well is this my last chance to buy so how do you respond to that and if the four-year cycle ends does that mean that it's up only forever or will there still be Cycles they just won't predictably four years there will always be Cycles if you look at any investment Market in history uh you look at the stock market stock market has compared to crypto it is just a straight line up it is no variance it's just slowly goes up over time you know your gains are much lower in terms of percentage but it's just steady

growth but it's had years where it's crashed 50% it's had days or months where it's CR Co the crash was like 50% in such a tiny period it very quickly recovered but every Market will have crashes and correction and if you're smart and Savvy and uh save some stable coins in order to buy a rainy day then you'll have opportunities to buy back in um now the the question though is like well what if you know it it we see a super quote unquote super cycle Bitcoin goes to half a million dollars and then it crashes to and then the crash is like $220,000 $150,000 like you've missed out on being able to buy it this price and maybe you have but you got to consider all the alternative scenarios as well and this is why best strategy in my

opinion for 99% of people is dollar cost average in just put you know $100 $1,000 500 whatever you can afford every week or every month buy just set a recurring buy of Bitcoin and or eth soul and and whatever other main tokens you want and just forget about it and just like just you'll be buying the top but you'll also be buying the bottom and you'll average out you're just getting exposure to bitcoin and so that means if it does run all the way up you're you're really happy and if it runs all the way down you're also happy because now you're buying more and you're getting more for the times that it does go up so that's it's just the best strategy for literally almost everyone and and very few people do it which is crazy podcast over everybody just DCA and stop trying to stop trying to think

that you're smart because yeah I hate to say it but like you nobody here's the thing it's not about being smart that's the real issue is markets don't follow logic all the time they very often don't follow logic at all you know we wrote a newsletter they went out today where we talked about pumpamentals versus fundamentals and how much the pumpamentals impact things often more than the fundamentals you can look a lot of so much more right and so it's a but I think the key thing that I really want our listeners to remember and our viewers to remember is there will always be Cycles if you miss this this cycle if you decide maybe not miss if you decide

to take some profits or take some money off the table now because that's the best thing for your risk tolerance and you're losing sleep or you're just not in that position to feel like hey I'm I've got too much risk on takes some off the table and let's say it pumps and you miss it and you miss this next banana Zone with in some way you have some in but you don't you don't get the full slice of the pie that you're hoping for it doesn't mean there won't be another dip and another cycle and another bare Market there will be and so I think that's the thing that I think a lot of people get really caught up in is this belief that like oh there and maybe the dips will be less I'm sure they will be over time the Bitcoin especially with

Bitcoin the dips will be dampened because of the ETF and all these institutions that are probably just long-term hold but it'll still dip and so don't if you are in that feeling of like oh this is my last chance then that's another indicator that you're in the wrong position what are you watching for right now over the maybe September the next you know how about the rest of this year that might indicate to you that like oh yeah we're we're in it we're we're still in the fouryear cycle or like oh we're we're not we're in something different yeah I mean I think uh looking to the FED in America see if they cut rates and how much they cut is an important part of it and the election is is another huge

Factor um between now and the end of the year is is uh who's going to win what's their approach going to be to crypto like it seems like the Trump is Pro crypto more Pro crypto seems to be going to do good things for crypto the Democrats um have historically been pretty terrible for crypto uh but there's been a few comments coming out in recent times that they it seems like they might be willing to you know come to the table with some sensible regulation and and take it more seriously um and hopefully that's true and hopefully both parties are good for crypto one might be better than the other but but we just have to wait and see and so I think that's a huge part of maybe we'll dictate the next uh four eight years just a very long time because like it or not America is still

the the the Nexus of of capital and so much uh uh direction of the world um th those are probably the big two and then just kind of watching uh how the markets are reacting to this news and and also the EMP money supply and seeing if that just continues to Trend the way it is trending uh yeah that's that's that's the gist of it and I think that um again like like I said I'm 75 80% I think we follow the foure cycle this time around as as well I think it's like lining up very nicely there's all these catalysts and I'm I'm very heavily allocated in crypto still and and I think it will happen but there's always a chance that that it won't so it's just like it's keeping an eye on these things and you know maybe the Democrats get elected

maybe um the SEC uh changes like doubles down on his hatred towards crypto starts going after more crypto companies uh there there are things that can happen maybe rates aren't cut as much as we think that they are maybe some other thing pops up and all of a sudden we're like oh there nobody has any money in the world and there's a very antagonistic view towards crypto from the American government um bad things are happening for the next few years like there are different scenarios that can play out like that those are some of the things I'm watching I want to know everybody uh watching and listening to this uh what do you think do you think we're in a fouryear cycle or do you think we're in a super cycle or do you think we're in the a regular business cycle and the foure Cycles are just over and this is

something new that we haven't seen before let us know in the comments as I said at the beginning of the show if you are not subscribed subscribe to the show now because you could win free stuff we're giving away thousands of dollars in prizes right now subscribe by the end of August to get free stuff as always Z pleasure to have you on the show thanks for joining us today thanks for having me as always [Music]