Is the World Collapsing? Inflation, The Fed, & Macro Markets | Jim Bianco

Transcript

hey, bankless, nation, welcome, to, another state, of, the, nation, episode, this, time we're, diving, deep, into, macro, markets there's, been, a, downturn, recently, david, i don't, know, if, you've, noticed, it, getting pretty, ugly, out, here, macro, has, taken center, stage, yet, again, i, think, people are, wondering, how, is, this, going, to affect, crypto, markets, in, 2022, so, we brought, on, jim, bianco, to, talk, about, the macro, landscape, what, are, we, going, to dive, into, in, this, episode, david, and we're, going, to, talk, about, the, changing stance, of, the, federal, reserve, apparently the, fed, is, uh, taking, things, a, little, bit more, seriously, taking, inflation, a, little bit, more, seriously, not, just, rising interest, rates, but, going, from quantitative, easing, to, quantitative tightening, uh, let's, unpack, what, that actually, is, because, again, every, time, i

hear, the, words, quantitative quantitative easing, and, tightening, i'm, like, okay, i, i knew, that, for, about, the, five, seconds that, it, lasted, in, my, brain, but, then, like it, just, flies, right, back, out, uh, so, what is, that, and, why, is, it, different, than just, fighting, inflation, and, what, does that, mean, for, the, different, types, of markets, of, the, world, the, bond, markets the, stock, markets, and, the, crypto, markets how, does, risk, on, assets, how, are, they going, to, behave, differently, versus, risk off, assets, and, a, bunch, of, other questions, there's, also, some, news, that, uh we, talked, to, jim, before, the, show, that, he really, wants, to, talk, about, with, uh microsoft, buying, activision, blizzard, for some, crazy, billion, numbers, of, dollars, uh and, how, they, are, just, like, facebook, are also, trying, to, co-op, the, metaverse, so, a number, of, different, topics, here, but

first, leading, with, the, whole, inflation fed, conversation, yeah, i, really, want, to know, if, like, first, of, all, the, world, is going, to, collapse, due, to, inflation, okay that, like, that's, somewhere, in, my, mind space, and, and, also, like, is, crypto, going to, collapse, due, to, this, quantitative tightening, this, interest, rate, reduction or, the, interest, rate, uh, increase, going into, the, year, so, we'll, have, to, see, what all, of, this, means, we'll, unpack, that, with jim, also, guys, before, we, get, in, just, uh an, announcement, from, our, friends, at, alto ira, i'm, gonna, get, tax, nerdy, with, you guys, you're, the, perfect, one, to, do, it ryan, okay, the, attacks, optimize, or, as you've, told, me, before, david, all, right, so i've, had, this, cool, thing, uh, since, you know, as, soon, as, i, found, out, about, it, in crypto, that, this, was, possible, it's

called, a self-directed, ira, okay, and, this, is, a brilliant, for, retail, investors, in, the, us this, is, a, way, to, actually, have, a, a, tax advantage, you, don't, pay, any, taxes, until you, retire a, count, that, is, denominated, in, crypto okay, and, so, like, any, of, you, guys, who have, tracked, your, taxes, for, crypto, and know, what, to, pay, an, asset, is, you, know how, much, you, pay, when, you, go, from, like bitcoin, to, ether, that's, taxable, a taxable, event, not, so, inside, of, an, ira account, so, i, think, everybody, in, crypto who's, on, the, bankless, journey, should, set one, of, these, up, if, you, live, in, the, u.s uh, and, if, you, want, to, get, super, advanced there's, there's, another, tool, for, you which, is, you, might, have, a, 401k, from, a previous, employer, okay, so, you, work, for, a

while, somewhere, you, you, put, away, some fun, snow, 401k, you, can, actually, take, that 401k, and, you, can, convert, it, you, can, roll that, over, turn, it, into, crypto, all, right and, then, you, can, start, saving, uh, your retirement, dollars, in, crypto, some, of you guys, aren't, thinking, of, retirement, yet but, like, are, you, thinking, of, not, having to, pay, your, taxes, because, that's something, you, can, do, with, one, of, these structures, and, what, what, we, found there's, lots, of, different, solutions, on the, market, but, the, easy, button, if, you're kind, of, lazy, right, and, you, just, want that, easy, button, just, something, that works, okay, david, might, be, that, guy, um also, ira, gives, it, to, you, because, it's completely, integrated, with, coinbase right, so, that, means, they, have, 125 different, crypto, assets, you, get, set, up

just, a, few, minutes, uh, and, they, it's, a ten, dollar, investment, minimum, okay, so you, could, start, at, any, amount and, again, you, can, put, away, as, much, as, 6k per, year, i, think, that's, the, current, uh ira, laws, or, roll, over, your, existing, 401k they, take, about, 1.5, percent, on, that, uh well, worth, it, from, my, perspective, just to, get, you, the, easy, button, to, make, it happen, so, if, you, want, to, figure, out, if you, want, to, learn, more, about, that, and get, your, account, set, up, which, i encourage, you, to, do, everyone, who's listening, to, this, just, take, some, time and, actually, get, it, set, up, you, don't have, to, start, depositing, from, day, one, go to, altoira, dot, com, slash, bankless, as, you can, tell, david, i, get, excited, about crypto, i, was, gonna, make, that, same, joke take, it, from, the, guy, who, gets, really

really, excited, about, this, it's, awesome good, taxes, all, right, it's, great uh, anyway, david, let, me, uh, let, me, ask, you the, question, we, begin, every, state, of, the nation, episode, with, uh, and, that, is, this what, is, the, state, of, the, nation, today sir, the, state, of, the, nation, is, denial ryan, i, am, in, complete, denial, about, the state, of, the, federal, reserve, and, i, want to, pick, jim, bianco's, brain, about, whether if, that's, a, healthy, denial, or, unhealthy denial, am, i, really, a, lot, allowed, to, just ignore, the, antics, of, the, fed, can, i, just assume, that, the, crypto, markets, go, up only, forever, or, is, that, naive, and, should i, actually, be, fearful, uh, so, uh, i'm, in denial, and, i'm, trying, to, ask, myself, if that's, appropriate should, we, have, gotten, a, psychologist, on psychological, states

and, so, what, you're, saying, is, like, you're in, denial, because, you, don't, want, to believe, that, macro, can, affect, crypto significantly, that, crypto, fundamentals should, kind, of, stand, on, their, own, and maybe, this, is, sort, of, a, wake-up, call from, jim, that, we're, getting, out, of, this episode, yeah, yeah, so, like, i, think, that macro, markets, can, throw, crypto, around, a decent, amount, but, can, it, throw, it, into, a bear, market, that's, what, i'm, in, denial about, i, don't, think, it, can, throw, krypto into, a, bear, market, but, maybe, jim, has, a different, opinion, well, we're, about, to find, out, guys, we, will, be, back, right after, the, break, with, jim, bianco, to, talk all, about, this, we, want, to, thank, our sponsors, for, making, this, episode possible polygon, is, ethereum's, largest, and, most vibrant, scaling, solution, to, date, with millions, of, monthly, users, and, all, of, the

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your, idea, is, you, can, apply, it, for, a unique, grant, at, uniswapgrants.org, and help, steer, uniswap, in, the, direction, that you, think, it, should, go thank, you, uniswap, for, sponsoring bankless hey, everyone, we, are, back, with, jim, bianco jim, welcome, back, to, bankless, it's, great to, have, you, sir, hey, pleasure, to, be, here thank, you, uh, guys, jim, bianco, is, a president, macro, strategist, at, bianca research, he's, been, a, veteran, of, the, dot com, era, he's, an, expert, in, global, economy macro, stuff, i, turn, to, his, twitter threads, often, when, i'm, trying, to understand, all, of, this, stuff, he's, also, a defy, crypto, native, which, is, a, rare, breed of, those, have, transitioned, both, the traditional, world, and, this, new, d5, world had, him, on, the, podcast, again, and, i, knew

as, david, and, i, tried, to, unpack, what, is going, on, in, macro, we, had, to, have, jim, on so, jim, can, you, help, us, make, sense, of this, stuff, i, think, a, lot, of, people, in crypto, they, came, to, finance, by, way, of like, crypto, and, so, they, don't, understand when, you're, talking, about, things, like the, bond, market, and, quantitative tightening, quantitative, easing, they don't, understand, what, some, of, these terms, means, we, don't, have, those, things in, crypto, we, don't, yes, we, have, these things, we, just, call, them, different things, right, uh, so, we're, hoping, you could, help, us, out, with, that, does, that sound, good that, sounds, good, in, fact, i, think, the reason, you, created, crypto, was, to, get away, from, these, ideas i, think, so, but, now, they're, now, they're coming, full, circle, as, david, said, we can't, just, keep, burying, our, heads, in, the

sand, so, i, want, to, start, with, maybe, this um, to, make, sure, we, understand, with, with the, bond, market, and, we're, talking, about uh, sovereign, bonds, right, here, which, are very, important, financial, instruments, it seems, to, me uh, and, um, you've, had, a, tweet, thread recently, that, i, want, to, kind, of, unpack and, understand, this, was, from, january, 9th and, you, open, this, tweet, thread, by, saying in, some, respects, what, happened, in, the bond, markets, last, week, was, epic something, we, might, be, talking, about, for many, years, okay, so, something, last, week happened, in, the, i, guess, this, is, two weeks, ago, happened, in, the, bond, market that, was, epic, something, we, might, be talking, about, for, years, what, is, that thing, what, happened

uh, in, simple, terms, the, bond, market, got killed, it, had, one, of, its, worst, weeks, on record, uh prices, sold, off, quite, a, bit, the, losses that, one, incurred, in, the, bond, market were, very, very, large, quick, word, about the, bond, market, and, i'm, hopefully, not going, to, go, too, far, into, the, weeds, with some, of, the, math, when, interest, rates, go down the, prices, of, bonds, get, more, volatile, we refer, to, that, as, positive, convexity and, so, when, you, have, record, low, interest rates the, amount, that, bond, prices, move, right now is, huge, compared, to, 30, years, ago, or, 40 years, ago, when, we, had, 10, or, 12, interest rates, so, you, have, these, gigantic movements, in, bonds, and, in, the, first, week

of, january you, had, one, of, the, biggest, plungers weekly, plunges, that, we've, ever, seen across, the, board, short, rates long, rates, um, you, know, in, real, rate bonds, basically, the, bond, market, got killed, and, that's, what, i, was, talking about, what, happened, was, epic, and, we might, be, talking, about, it, and, that, the bond, market, got, really, took, a, left, turn and, had, some, and, got, spanked, pretty, bad to, begin, the, year and, what, are, the, implications, of, that, uh if, we, have, a, dead, bond, market, it, got killed, uh, how, what, does, that, mean, for every, other, market, why, is, that, so important yeah, so interest, rates, are, the, price, of, money, in the, trad, five, world, and, it, is, probably the, basis, where, everything, starts

whether, you're, investing, in, companies, or running, a, company, or, buying, stocks, or buying, commodities, or, whatever, you, start your, analysis, you, start, your, idea, with what, does, money, cost, me and, if, the, bond, market, is, signaling, to us that, money, is, going, to, cost, a, lot, more remember, lower, bond, prices, mean, higher yields, if, it's, signaling, to, us, that we're, going, to, see, much, more, expensive money that, changes, the, valuation, and, the metric, for, everything, else, in, the tradify, world, and, now by, extension, uh, the, crypto, world, as, well too, so, what, the, bond, market, was signaling, was that, money, is, going, to, become, a, lot, more expensive, to, borrow

and, that, is, something, that, we, haven't seen, or, had, considered, until, we, got right, to, the, beginning, of, the, year, and by, the, way, real, quick, why, did, it, happen at, the, beginning, of, the, year these, markets, are, so, institutionalized i'm, talking, about, the, trad, five, fixed income, market uh, is, so, institutionalized every, institution, gets, paid, you, get, paid a, performance, bonus, usually, on, the calendar, year so, the, most, important, date for, institutions, since, december, 31st that, this, defines, their, bonus, that defines, their, income, for, that, year january, 1st, tends, to, be like, a, new, page, that's, been, turned, and it's, not, unusual, to, see, in, these, heavily institutionalized, markets, that, when, you

turn, the, new, page, to, the, new, year, all, of a, sudden, a, market, takes, a, right, turn, and goes, either, up, big, or, down, big, this, year it, happened, to, be, down, big okay, so, the, bond, market's, going, down, big so, can, you, remind, us, when, we're, talking about, bonds, are, are, we, talking, about like, corporate, bonds, sovereign, bonds like, the, bonds, of, nation, states, all, of that, and, then, who, sets, the, prices, this is, free, market, but, yet, um, what, is, that caused, by, at, the, root, of, things, is, that is, that, caused, by, central, bank, what jerome, powell, and, the, fed, actually, plan to, do, in, the, future, and, the, market's kind, of, anticipating, that, so, they, go, up or, down, based, on, what, they, think, the, fed is, going, to, do, in, the, future, what, are the, dynamics, that, actually, priced, the

bond, market, and, what, bonds, are, we talking, about, here so, usually, when, we, talk, about, interest rates, we're, talking, about, the, sovereign bonds, of, a, nation, now, in, the, u.s, that's the, u.s, treasury, market in, the, uk, that's, the, gilt, market, in, the japanese, market, that's, the, japanese government, bond, market, those, are, the bonds, issued, by, the, government, and typically, not, always, but, typically, they have, among, the, highest, quality, of, credit you, know, with, the, u.s, treasury, the concern, is, the, risk, is, not, that, the, us is, going, to, default, the, risk, is, is, that interest, rates, are, going, to, rise, and your, prices, are, going, to, fall, so, when, we talk, about, interest, rates, rising, we're usually, talking, about, us, treasuries corporate, bonds, high-yield, bonds

municipal, bonds, asset-backed, securities usually, get, priced, off, of, those, so, we usually, refer, to, what, where, corporate bonds, are, as, a, spread, or, a, premium, over that, risk-free, rate, of, treasury, so, if treasury, yields, are, going, up, corporate bond, yields, are, going, to, go, up, usually by, a, like, amount, and, if, there's perceived, more, risk, because, there's, a credit, risk, their, spread, might, widen, and they, might, go, a, little, bit, more, so essentially, if, treasury, bond, yields, are going, up then, they, are, all, going, up, now, to, your second, part, of, your, question why, what's, got, them, going, it's, the, big, i word, inflation and, it's

inflation, has, now become, a, point in, the, markets, and, i'll, talk, about, this a, little, bit, not, everybody, in, the, market believes, this but, it's, not, transitory, anymore, at, least in, the, short, end, of, the, bond, market, what i, mean, by, that, is, people, that, trade short-term, bond, or, short-term, debt securities, two-year, notes, one-year, bills fed, funds, in, that, space those, players, have, decided, that, the biggest, problem, is, inflation it's, not, transitory and, the, federal, reserve, is, going, to, have to, deal, with, that, by, raising, rates, many times and, so, that's, what, they've, got, as, far, as where, we, are, in, the, market, now

is, in, the, longer, end, of, the, market, and in, the, equity, market, there's, a, little bit, of, disagreement, about, whether, or, not the, federal, reserve, is, going, to, raise rates, as, aggressively, as, the, short, end of the, market, thinks right, now, you, can, go, to, things, like, the fed, fund, futures, market, the, euro, dollar futures, market, there's, a, cash, market called, the, overnight, index, swaps, market and, what, they're, telling, you, is four, rate, hikes, for, this, year, are, priced in, we're, not, that, far, away, from, a, fifth so, they're, a, big, aggressiveness, that's priced, in, the, market, you, ask, equity traders, now, that's, not, going, to, move that, much why, why, don't, they, think, the, fed's, going to, move, that, much because, they, don't, believe, that, the federal, reserve, would, ever, do, anything

when, it, comes, to, the, markets, that, would upset the, economy or, the, stock, market, they, don't, believe that, the, fed, would, raise, rates, multiple times and, put, the, stock, market, or, the, economy at, risk and, from, 2008, to, 2020 they, were, right, the, stock, market, the, fed would, never, do, anything, to, put, the, stock market, at, risk, but, something, has, changed now, and, that's, inflation and, it's, showing, up, and, this, is, where, i think, a, lot, of, strategists, and economists um, are, either, unwilling, or, won't, go unwilling, to, go, there, don't, want, to, go there, whatever, word, you, want, to, use if, you, look, at, political, polling and, cbs, news, had, a, poll, out, this, weekend the, president's, approval, rating, is, in

the, tank the, uh the, prospects, of, the, democrats, getting re-elected, are, in, the, tank the, number, one, issue, in, the, country, is inflation, it, is, not, crime, it, is, not climate, change, it, is, not, covet, it, is inflation inflation, hits, everybody, there's, no escaping, it 40, percent, of, the, public has, le, this, was, a, federal, reserve, study done, right, before, the, pandemic, 40, of, the public, has, less, than, a, thousand, dollars of, savings, in, rents every, single, one, of, those, people, go, to the, grocery, store, go, to, the, gas, pump, go to, the, mall, and, they, wind, up, buying, less every, month, than, they, did, the, previous

month, because, of, inflation that's, what's, showing, up, in, the, polls and, so, when, people, say, well, the, fed, will never upset, the, stock, market, yeah, from, 2008, to 2020 you, had, that, 40, in, the, stock, market's interests, aligned, on, the, same, side but, now, they're, on, diverging, interest don't, raise, rates, jay, you, might, tank, the stock, market jay, do, something, about, inflation, because you, got, 40, of, the, people, screaming, that they're, going, to, take, it, out, on, the democrat, party, in, november, so, he's, in, a bad, place, right, now, which, side, does, he go, to, does, he, err, on, the, side, of protecting, the, stock, market, or, does, he err, on, the, side, of, dealing, with, this incipit, inflation, problem and, more, and, more, i, think, the, markets

are, coming, to, the, belief, he's, going, to err, on, the, side, of, this, incipit inflation, problem, and, get, aggressive, and raise, rates and, if, that, puts, the, stock, market, at risk, and, if, that, puts, the, economy, at risk well, then, so, be, it, but, they, cannot not, deal, with, this, problem, that's, the dilemma, that, we're, facing, in, the, market right, now so, you, might, just, want, to, check, my understanding, uh, and, get, back, and, pick up, the, inflation, uh, thread, so, we, we, had this, big, dip, in, the, bond, market, where the, asset, prices, of, the, of, the, bonds dropped, significantly, and, as, a, result, of that, that, means, the, yields, go, up, because these, things, are, inversely, correlated the, prices, of, bonds, go, down, but, the yield, that, they, generate, goes, up, and

that, sets, a, new, level, for, the, cost, of money, that's, what, you're, talking, about with, how, much, money, costs, because, if, you can, get, a, dependable you, know, three, percent, ap yield, on, your, dollars, in, the, bond, market which, is, deemed, very, very, safe, perceived very, very, safe, by, investors, why, would you, go, take, your, usdc, and, take, it, into defy, like, when, where, there's, a, lot, more risk, like, you, could, just, get, a, very stable, return, and, so, like, the, it, pulls people, back, from, the, risk, spectrum, and says, like, hey, you, know, three, percent, on your, bonds, that's, not, too, bad, i'm, just making, these, numbers, up, but, this, is, the example, and, so, this, is, why, perhaps, the stock, market, and, the, crypto, markets, are in, the, state, of, fear, right, now, because they, are, seeing, the, raising, rates raising, yields, out, of, bonds, after, prices

have, gone, down, and, they're, saying, well, i have, to, i, don't, have, to, take, so, much risk, anymore, in, order, to, get, the, yield that, i, need, and, that, has caused, a, drop, in, risk, on, assets, and, so that's, what, we're, fearful, about, with, the stock, market, and, the, crypto, markets, what i'm, said, i'm, in, denial, about, um, and, all this, is, because, for, the, first, time, in such, a, long, time, the, fed, has, been presented, with, a, new, problem, which, is inflation, so, okay, can, you, just, put ourselves, in, the, shoes, of, the, fed, uh, for for, right, now, because, they, have, they, had the, fed, has, a, dual, mandate, for, maximum employment, and, also, stable, prices, uh, and it, seems, that, they, have, thrown, maximum employment, maximal, employment, by, the wayside, in, lieu, of, stable, prices, can, you

just, kind, of, do, the, cost, benefit analysis, that, you, think, that, the, fed, is doing, as, to, why, they've, determined inflation, as, the, big, problem well, one, of, the, things, that, the, fed, is looking, at, and, we, have, to, be, honest, here is, political the, federal, reserve, is, 107, year, old institution, that, has, gotten, its reputation, as, an, inflation, fighter, that they, have, and whether, or, not, it's, been, paul, or, yelling before, him, or, bernanke, before, her they, have, repeatedly, said we, have, tools, to, deal, with, unwanted inflation okay, the, public, has, just, told, you, we have, unwanted, inflation, today, and, we want, you, to, deal, with, it, today, right, now is, and, so, the, fed, has, got, a, a, choice

that, they, have, to, make do, they, continue, to, push, this, idea, that no, no, no, you, may, think, it's, unwanted, but don't, worry, it, will, go, away, on, its, own otherwise, known, as, transitory, so therefore, we, have, to, do, nothing or does, the, fed, decide, that, if, they, do nothing and, they're, wrong there's, going, to, be, a, price, to, pay, from the, federal, reserve or, if, they, do, nothing and, a, desperate, congress, looking, to, get reelected, and, i'm, not, trying, to, be partisan, here, by, saying, it's, the democrats, because, if, the, republicans were, in, the, majority, that's, exactly, the same, thing, about, them but, that, that, desperate, congress, might try, and, take, on, this, issue, themselves through, price, controls, or, some, other

heavy-handed, tactic, to, try, and, bring down, prices, in, order, to, stave, off, a debacle during, the, election, in, november, the federal, reserve, i, think, is, looking, at those, although, they'll, never, say, it, but they, are, and, they're, saying, we've, got, a political, choice, that, we've, got, to, make and, we've, got, to, deal, with, this inflation, problem, um, today, by, raising interest, rates, the, first, part, of, your question, real, quick, how, does interest, rates, going, up how, does, that, impact you, know, the, stock, market, and, then, maybe the, crypto, market well, one, of, the, other, things, the, fed does, is, what's, called, quantitative easing and, then, the, opposite, of, that, is quantitative, tiding, tightening, now, what

is, that, very, simply the, federal, reserve, has, a, bunch, of, banks that, are, required, to, hold, a, reserve account, with, the, fed, so, if, i'm, a, bank, of a, billion, dollars, in, size i, have, a, reserve, account, at, the, fed, and it, roughly, has, around, 110, million dollars, of, reserves, around, 11 the, federal, reserve, has, the, ability, to add, reserves, to, my, account or, drain, reserves, from, my, account, how, do they, do, that, they, just, change, the, number of, my, fed, uh you, know, if, if, a, commercial, bank, did that, everybody, goes, to, jail, but, if, a central, bank, does, that, that's, called sophisticated, monetary, policy, is, what, it is, so, what, is, quantitative, easing, they call, up, my, bank, and, they, say, we, want, to

buy 10, million, dollars, of, five, year, notes, so sell, us, 10, million, dollars, of, five, year notes, okay, i, did, now, how's, the, fed, going to, pay, for, it, they'll, say, to, me, you, know your, reserve, account, well, we'll, just erase, that, number, and, we'll, add, 10 million, more, to, it, and, so, they, created the, money, out, of, thin, air, in, order, to purchase, these, bonds, why, do, they, do, it well, if, the, fed, is, purchasing uh if, the, fed, is, purchasing, 120, billion dollars, of, bonds, a, month, a, trillion, and a, half, a, year that, helps, to, hold, down, interest, rates that, helps to, create, a, buyer, of, bonds what, does, the, private, sector, do, private sector, looks, at, these, yields, and, says i'm, not, going, to, buy, these, these, very

low overly, priced, low, prices, uh, or, very high-priced, low-yield, bonds, that, are overvalued i'm, gonna, go, look, somewhere, else, maybe i'll, buy, corporate, bonds, or, maybe, i'll buy, stocks maybe, i, might, even, move, into, crypto, uh as, well, too, so, they, refer, to, that, as moving, out, the, risk, curve uh, milton, friedman, had, a, fancy, trace, for this, called, the, portfolio, balance channel so, that's, the, fear, is, if, the, fed, is going, to, start, raising, rates, ending quantitative, easing then, the, bond, market, needs, to, find, a trillion, and, a, half, dollar, buyer and, how, does, the, bond, market, find, a trillion, and, a half, dollar, buyer, well, it keeps, raising, interest, rates, by selling, off, its, bonds, to, suck, money, in

from, corporate, bonds, the, stock, market, uh maybe, even, the, crypto, markets, too, suck money, in, to, buy, their, instruments, and, so that's, why, the, markets, are, worried, about the, fed, raising, rates, you, the, fed, are buying, bonds, so, i, don't, have, to, i, could go, play, in, stocks, and, crypto, okay, well you're, gonna, keep, selling, off, bonds, and raising, rates, and, remember, interest rates, are, the, price, of, money, you're gonna, make, money, more, and, more, and, more expensive, until, i, make, the, decision, best place, for, me, to, put, my, money, is, in, some safe, high, yielding treasury, security, so, what, yield, do, they have, to, go, to, well, how, much, do, they, have to, lower, the, price, so, that's, why, the fear, is, as, the, fed, starts, to, fight

inflation by, raising, rates, they're, signaling, no more, qe no, more, that, they're, going, to, be, buying bonds, and, maybe, they're, going, to, do, qt that, they, oh, because, one, of, the, other things, the, fed, does is, they, own, seven, trillion, dollars, worth of, bonds, yes, seven, trillion when, they, mature, so, if, a, hundred million, dollars, worth, of, bonds, mature, a billion, dollars, of, bonds, mature, today they, buy, another, billion, dollars, to, hold their, holdings, stating, maybe, they, just let, them, mature, that, would, be, qt, that further, adds, to, the, supply, that, the market, has, to, take, in and, that, further, puts, pressure, on, other markets, that, we, want, to, drag, money, out of, those, other, markets, to, buy, treasury

securities, so, if, the, fed, is, worried about, inflation, and, interest, rates, are going, to, go, up, it's, a, signal the, bond, market, wants, a, trillion, dollars worth, of, buyers, and, the, bond, market, will find, a, way, to, get, a, trillion, dollars worth, of, money, in, other, places, to transfer, back, to, the, bond, market, it, will sell, it, will, sell, make, its, price, go lower, and, lower, and, make, it, look, more and, more, attractive, with, a, higher, and higher, yield, until, it, does, suck, all, that money, in, that's, why, you, see, stocks, being wobbly, and, at, the, end, of, the, risk, curve even, cryptos, being, wobbly, too, it, might suck, money, back, the, other, way, because what, we, saw, through, 21, was, all, the, money was, going, one, way, from, the, tradify markets, to, cryptos this, is, uh, thank, you, for, talking, about

that, in, such, a, clear, way, jim, like, i think, this, is, going, to, benefit, a, lot, of listeners, who, are, maybe, for, the, first time, actually, understanding, the, dynamics at, play, here, so, you, know, thank, you, for that, and, i, want, to, get, back, on, the inflation, train, in, just, a, minute, but before, we, do something, you, said, there, sort, of, brought brought, some, more, questions, to, you, know in, into, my, mind, so, it, seems, like, the, fed is, is, indicating, signaling, that, they're going, to, raise, uh, interest, rates, right and, the, market, has, said, maybe, that's going, to, happen, three, times, uh, this, year maybe, four, times, not, so, sure, and, they've also, maybe, signaled, that, they're, going to, stop, quantitative, easing, and, do quantitative, tightening, but, like, can, we talk, about, this, whole, signaling, thing right, it's, like, it, seems, very, bizarre, to

me, right, why, doesn't, the, fed, just, say hey, guys, here's, what, we're, gonna, do, boom boom, boom, why, is, there, all, of, this, like talking, in, code, and, this strange, fed, speak, that, happens, the market, has, to, analyze, everything, that powell, says and and, say, okay, here's, what, he, really meant, to, where, like, here's, what's, going to, happen, as, a, result, why, can't, they just, speak plainly, about, what, they, intend, to, do, is is, the, signaling, aspect, an, element, of how, this, whole, system, works they, have, a, fancy, word, for, it, they, call it, forward, guidance, is, what, they, call, it so, yes, the, signaling, is, what, they're afraid, of, in, the, market is, doing, something, that, upsets, the market, quite, a, bit, and, so, they, like, to signal, it, in, fact, that, signaling, even

gets, a, little a, little, bit, more, nuanced, than, that robin, wigglesworth, at, the, ft, or, nick timaros, at, the, wall, street, journal, will occasionally, write stories, like, senior, federal, reserve officials, are, thinking, about, x that's, usually, them, calling, up, the papers, and, saying, hey, tell, everybody we're, thinking, about, doing, quantitative tightening a, little, bit yeah, okay, and, then, if, the, market, likes it, okay that's, the, policy, if, the, market, doesn't like, it, i, don't, know, what, the, hell they're, talking, about, at, the, wall, street journal, we, had, no, plan, on, doing, that whatsoever, so, that, that's, part, of, the forward, guidance, thing, now, of, course, i'm embellishing, about, a, little, bit, about, uh it, for, just, to, be, funny, but, they, do, they

think, they, do, kind, of, drop, these, hints either, through, speeches, or, through conversations, with, with, the, media, um, as well, too, because, they, don't, want, the market, to, be, surprised they, are, definitely, afraid, especially, in the, 08, period that, they, come, up, and, they, just, say, okay today, we've, decided, something, else, and the, markets, completely, freak, out, and crash, they, don't, want, to, be, responsible for, it, so, they, want, to, try, and, lead, us all, you, ready, here, we, go, we're, going, to do, it, i'm, telling, you, we're, going, to, do it, here, it, comes, ready, one, two, three there, we, did, it, so, no, one's, going, to, be surprised, when, it, happens again, they, call, that, forward, guidance, so that, is, by, design, the, way, that, they, like to, do, their, policy, which, is, why, we

obsess, over, every, word, they, say, and, we look, at, the, speeches, and, stuff, because we're, trying, to, define, divine, the forward, guidance, of, what, they're, trying to, do it's, quite, an, elaborate, dance, between the, fed, and, the, markets, but, you, know this, is, the, way, it, works, uh, certainly, so let's, get, back, on, that, inflation, train for, a, minute, because, it, wasn't, but, six months, ago, that, i, remember, um, jay, powell talking, about, tr, using, this, term transitory, inflation, okay, i'm, not, sure that, whether, this, is, part, of, signaling or, part, of, the, dance, or, whether, he actually, believed, that, that, inflation was, transitory, what's, what's, your, belief it, seems, like, now, the, fed, is, is, ready, to take, off, that, label, and, say, no, we actually, have, inflation, what's, your belief, about, inflation, like

is, it, a, persistent, problem, and, how persistent, is, it, are, there, some, elements that, are, still, transitory, and, you, know could, inflation, go, down, without, the, fed intervening, what's, your, overall, take, on the, inflation, story, here well, a, couple, things, just, so, everybody has, a, context one, year, ago the, inflation, rate, was, 1.4, percent and, now, it's, 7 there, were, people, a, year, ago, like, me that, was, worried, i, was, worried, a, year ago, that, inflation, is, going, to, be, one, of the, big, stories, of, the, year and, i, thought, man, we, could, see, three, and a half, percent, inflation, maybe, four, on the, outside and, it, was, seven, so, i i, directly, got, it right, but, i, was, way, way, short, of, where

the, the, inflation, rate, was, going, to, come up the, word, transitory, the, idea, that, the the, a, lot, of, economists, were, pushing, the fed, was the, reason, that, we're, seeing, these higher, prices, was, it, was, an, echo of, the, lockdowns, in, 2020, we, were, all sent, home and, we, didn't, spend, money, in, 2021, things opened, up, so, now, okay, now, i'm, gonna, buy that, new, car, that, i, wanted, to, buy, in 2020., now, i'm, gonna, remodel, my, kitchen which, i, wanted, to, do, a, year, ago, or, or, or now, i'm, gonna, buy, some, new, clothes, or something, like, that, and, so, we're, going to, see, this, echo, of, this, pent, up, demand to, buy, stuff, in, the, marketplace, so, we're going, to, see, inflation, go, we're, going, to see, prices, blip, up, higher, and, then

dissipate well, they, flipped, up, higher, and, then they, kept, going, and, going, then, we, blamed it, on, the, supply, chain, then, we've started, to, blame, it, on, other, things, some people, like, me, said, all, the, stimulus, all the, air, drops, of, all, the, money, we, did the, 1400, stimulus, check, and, the, 600 stimulus, checked, and, the, 1200, stimulus check, all, of, that led, into, a, lot, of, people, having, extra money, to, spend, in, the, economy and, so, what, we, wound, up, with, is, much higher, inflation, than, we, ever, thought, at seven, percent, now, i'm, in, the, camp that, inflation, is, more, persistent, but the, nuance, here, is all, the, data, suggests

that, probably, by, march you'll, see, a, peak, in, the, inflation, rate and, then, for, the, rest, of, the, year, it will, come, down, problem, solved, right because, it's, going, to, come, down, no, it has, to, come, down to, something, like, two, percent um, or, the, fed's, old, target, around, two percent, to, really, say, it's, in, it's, it's transitory, what, it, might, wind, up, doing is, peaking, at, around, seven, and, a, half, or eight, percent, by, march and, by, the, end, of, the, year, we'll, still be, at, four, percent maybe, five, maybe, three, and, a, half that's, still, unacceptably, too, high now, let, me, go, back, remember what's, driving, a, lot, of, this, is, a political, decision, the, 40, that, have, less than, a, thousand, dollars, of, savings, are

not, happy that, they, are, that, everything, costs, more money look, the, the, upper, ten, percent we, have, homes stock, portfolios, maybe, crypto, portfolios so, maybe, my, paycheck, didn't, go, up, seven percent, in, the, last, year, but, my, house did, my, stock, portfolio, went, up, 29 my, crypto, portfolio, went, up, in, 21, so, i got, cushioned from, the, higher, prices, they, didn't so, now, they're, up, un, unhappy, about, it and, so, the, fed, is, going, to, have, to, deal with, that, they, can't, tell, them, oh, it's going, to, peak, and, it'll, be, four, percent by, the, end, of, the, year, that, won't satisfy, that's, still, unacceptable, so that's, why, i, think, that, even, if, it, does

peak, and, it, comes, down, it's, probably, not going, to, come, down, fast, enough, in, order to, bring, inflation, back, to, heal, so, that we, could, go, back, to, a, 20, 2008, 2020 scenario, because, right, now, again, you've got, the, market, on, one, side, with, the economy, and, you've, got, this, 40, on, the other, side both, are, very, unhappy, and, the, fed's, got to, pick, one and, it's, probably, going, to, pick, the, 40 and, deal, with, the, inflation, problem which, is, what's, got, markets, upset because, it's, not, it's, going, to, provide by, bond, prices, going, lower, and, lower providing, that, competition, for everything, else so, touching, on, that, everything, else, side of, things, one, of, the, narratives, that, has really, been, uh, hammered, into, my, brain over, the, last, two, years, is, that

we, can't, let, the, stock, market, go down, too, much, like, too, many, people's retirements, depend, on, the, stock, market so, many, people's, pensions, so, a, lot, of things, rely, on, the, stock, market, at, least staying, flat and, so, you're, telling, me, that, the, fed, is kind, of, leaning, into, the, other, side, of things, the the, average, consumer, the, people, that, are meaningfully, inflected, by, in, inflation that, have, to, pay, rent, and, you, know, don't have, too, much, savings, but, like, what happens, what, happens, on, the, other, side of, things, like, what, happens, if, uh, the fed, prioritizes, that, too, much, and, then all, of, a, sudden, the, stock, market, does indeed, go, into, like, a, pretty, significant prolonged, bear, market, is, it, now, isn't there, just, an, equal, and, opposite reaction, where, a, different, side, of, the

world, is, unhappy, and, like, what's, the, fed gonna, do, about, that, you're, right, and this, is, why, they're, in, a, bad, place they've, got, no, good, choices, there, isn't the, perception, now, and, i, happen, to, agree with, this, is, there, isn't, a, magic, policy that, makes, both, sides, happy, at, the, same time um, so, they, got, to, pick, one, or, the, other and, so that, is, the, risk, there's, a, phrase, that we, like, to, use, in, the, markets, that, the fed has, a, history, of, raising, rates, too, much until, they, break, something, and, they, you know, break, something, is, either, the, stock market, plunges, the, economy, goes, in, the recession, or, some, other, financial, crisis seems, to, occur, and, that, is, a, fear, oh look, a, number, of, surveys, done, of professional, trade, fine, managers

ask, them what, is, the, number, one, fear, you, have, for 2022 and, the, answer, is, a, policy, mistake, the fed's, going, to, raise, rates, too, much, and they're, going, to, break, something, to, your point, they're, going, to, raise, rates, to deal, with, this, inflation, problem, too much, and, they're, going, to, break, the stock, market, or, they're, going, to, break the, economy, or, they're, going, to, break the, plumbing, of, the, traditional financial, system, and, create, some, other kind, of, mess somewhere, along, the, line, so, a, lot, of people, are, very, worried, about, that's, why these, markets, are, very, sloppy, in, the, way because, that's, their, fear, so, yes, they've got, a, very, difficult, point, that, they're going, to, have, to, deal, with, raise, rates some, and, then, the, stock, market, gets sloppy, and, then, you, say, okay, i, can't, do any, more, because

rich, people, might, become, less, rich, well the, 40, will, be, very, very, unhappy, uh, at that, point, and, or, do, you, say, i, have, to address, the, inflation, problem, or, at least, look, like, i'm, addressing, the inflation, problem, and, i, got, to, keep raising, rates, and, if, the, stock, markets keep, stumbling, so, be, it, you, never, want to, be, put, in, that, position, and, that's exactly, the, position that, the, fed, has, been, put, in, and partially, because, they, waited, way, too long to, deal, with, this, problem, of, inflation they, should, have, dealt, with, it maybe, over, the, summer, maybe, last, spring but, by, waiting, too, long, and, letting, it get, to, this, point, it's, left, them, with, no good, options, can, i, just, ask, like, a higher, level, question, because, um, the, fed

has, been, pursuing, a, quantitative, easing type, policy, since, you, know, 2009 basically, that's, like, printing, tons, of money, adding, to, the, balance, sheet, why are, we, just, suddenly, seeing, inflation crop, up, i, remember, people, who, used, to talk, about inflation, you, know, coming, it's, it's coming, right, around, the, corner, in, 2012 2013, and, it, never, came, but, we, saw massive, asset, price, inflation, i'm wondering, if, this, time, things, are different, partially, because, of, uh, fiscal policy, so, a, lot, of, the, money, that, you were, just, talking, about, with, um, kind, of the, stimulus, checks, and, unemployment that, didn't, go, to, the, banks, and, asset prices, and, quant, that, went, directly, to the, consumer, which, also, makes, me you, know, wonder, if, the, fed, can, really

fix, some, of, these, issues, right, or, if this, is, not, a, fiscal, policy type, of, issue, causing, some, of, this inflation, too, so, the, fed's, been, printing money, for, the, last, 10, years, now, suddenly cpi, inflation, is, a, problem, you, have, to ask, yourself, why, and, if, that, is, more, a result, of, fiscal, policy, than, actually monetary, policy, and, if, it, is, fiscal policy, is, something, the, fed, can, really uh, change, is, that, something, that, they have, any, sway, over, do, their, dials, work for, that, sort, of, thing, what, do you, think well, a, couple, of, things, first, of, all there, was, a, fed, governor, who, was, there from, 2009, to, 2017, named, dan, torillo and, he's, over, at, the, brookings, institute and, dan, has, given, a, number, of, speeches since, he's, left, the, fed

i've, always, joked, the, best, fed, governors to, the, ones, to, listen, to, the, ones, that just, left, because, now, they, tell, you their, opinion, and, they, just, don't, spew the, party, line and, he's, been arguing that we, don't, have, we, being, the, economic community, don't, have, a, good, theory, of why, what, causes, inflation, and, if, you actually, look, into, it, and, look, at, well it's, too, much, money, chasing, too, few goods, it's, the, idea, of, inflation expectations, rational, expectations whatever, theory, you, want, and, you back, test, it, if, you, will, it, doesn't really, work, as, well, as, you, think, so inflation's, kind, of, this, monster, that, we don't, really totally, understand which, is, fine but, the, federal, reserve, wants, you, to believe, that, they, know, how, to, they've

got, these, little, tools, and, knobs, and levers, that, they, could, move, it, to, the third, or, fourth, decimal, place, anytime they, want, they, give, you, that, illusion that, they, have, that, kind, of, control, on inflation, so, let's, start, with, it, is really, hard, to, understand, it, second, of all, you're, right, something, changed, in the, last, two, years, that, was, not, present in, the, last, previous, 12, years, that, gave us, inflation and, i, would, postulate, this, is, it, was, the pandemic, itself, the, event, of, the, last generation, was, we, sent, everybody, home for, a, year and, because, we, sent, everybody, home, for, a year a, lot, of, things, have, changed, in, the economy, and, we, don't, understand, how, they change, wall, street, loves, to, use, this

phrase when, things, go, back, to, how, 2019, was, no we're, not, going, back, to, 2019 i, don't, know, where, we're, going, and, it doesn't, have, to, be, a, bad, place, it, could be, very, good, but, we're, not, going, to, go back, there, and, i've, postulated, that, one of, the, things, that's, changed is, that, in, the the, lockdowns, work, from, home, our lifestyle, choices, that, we've, made we, now, want, more, stuff and, less, services, now, that, runs, counter to, what, a lot, of, people, think, but, that's why, we, have, a, supply, chain, problem, that is, not, getting, better, it, seems, to, be intractable, that's, why, we, pay, up, for things, like, used, cars and, the, like, because, we're, at, home, more we've, made, a, lifestyle, change, and, that

we, want, more, stuff, and, that, and, then, you add, into, that, we, stuffed, everybody, full of, money, and, we've, got, a, supply, chain that, can't, handle, it, and, that's, why you've, got, these, higher, and, higher prices, now, to, your, question, about, fiscal policy yeah, uh, who, who where'd, those, checks, come, from, the twelve, hundred, dollar, check, the, 1400 check, the, 600, check, they, came, from, the federal, government, they, didn't, come, from the, federal, reserve they're, the, ones, that, airdrop, the, money to, everybody, uh, as, well, but, the, federal reserve, through, quantitative, easing it's, argued, by, buying, up, bonds, where, did the, federal, government, get, the, money they, borrowed, it, in, the, bond, market, they issued, a, bunch, of, bonds, and, then, they used, the, proceeds, of, that, to, airdrop, all

this, money, to, everybody, who, bought, all those, bonds, the, biggest, single, buyer, was the, federal, reserve, uh, and, that, they allowed, the, government, to, borrow trillions, of, dollars, without, interest rates, meaningfully, going, higher and, so, that's, what, happened, and, now we're, on, the, we're, we're, seeing, the effects, of, all, that, stimulus, so, i, think lifestyle, changes, like, i, said, don't discount, the, idea, something, that, we never, thought, possible, before, the beginning, of, 2020, what, did, you, know, what if, we, decided, that, we're, gonna, send everybody, home, for, a, year, and, no, one's gonna, work, for, a, year, and, then, how, we're gonna, and, then, we're, gonna, turn, it, back on, and, we're, all, gonna, pretend, it's, 2019 and, go, right, back, to, the, way, it, was before it's, pretty, obvious, we're, not, going, to go, back, to, the, way, it, was, before, i'm, not going, to, tell, you, i, know, where, we're

going, to, go, i, just, would, argue, again, i don't, think, it, necessarily, has, to, be, bad where, we're, going, to, go, and, i, would argue, it's, not, going, to, be, don't, look, to how, were, things, in, 2019, and, how, do, we get, back, to, that, again, working, at, home wanting, more, stuff, i, think, is, a, big driver, of, this, inflation, because, it's been, driven, more, by, capital, goods, than it, has, been, by, services so, jim, the average, bankless, listener, bankless viewer, has, some, sort, of, portfolio, that's very, very, heavy, crypto, or, could, also, be very, very, heavy, tech, stocks for for, these, individuals, what, should, they be, paying, attention, to and, should, they, be, concerned, if, they might, be, overexposed, on, the, risk, end, of the, spectrum, what, would, you, say, to

somebody, that, has, like, you, know, 80, to, 90 percent, of, their, overall, portfolio, in crypto, assets, right, now, what, should, they should, what, should, they, be, paying attention, to, david, are, you, asking, for yourself, sir, not, at, all, ryan asking, for, a, friend, you're, asking, for, a friend yeah um um, let, me, start, off, by, saying i, am, a, big, believer, in, this, space, and i'm, a, hodler, and, so, at, the, end, of, the day think, ahead, longer, term uh, and, you're, gonna, see, this, space expand, greatly, and, you're, gonna, see, coin prices, go, up, quite, a, bit, the, whole, space is but, over, the, next, year, or, so, what, was the, big, adoption, of, 2021, it, was traditional, institutions, coming, into

crypto thinking, of, it, as, either, a, hedge, against inflation, or, a, hedge, against, the financial, system, but, using, it, as, part, of the, same, spectrum, right, you've, got, super safe, corp, uh, government, bonds, and corporate, bonds, high, yield, bonds equities and, then, you, know, within, equities, the more, riskier, equities, are, tech, stocks and, then, at, the, very, end, of, the, spectrum is, crypto, it's, part, of, the, same, spectrum is, what, it, is, so, if, the, fed, is, going, to raise, rates, if, the, fed, is, going, to, deal with, this, problem and, the, bond, market, isn't, going, to, you know, the, bond, market's, going, to, sell, off the, stock, market, doesn't, like, it the, end, of, the, risk, spectrum, kryptos, is going, to, feel, it, and, so, it's, going, to continue, i, think, a, struggle now, longer, term

i, would, argue, to, you that, the, crypto, market, is, not, going, to always, be a adjunct, to, the, trad, fly, markets, it, is now, because, that's, the, way, that, a, lot, of the, adoption, came, into, it, is, it, was, just they, viewed, it, as, the, next, and, the, we've extended, out, the, risk, the, risk, parameter it, doesn't, end, with, tech, stocks, there's another, there's, another, world, after, that which, was, crypto uh, eventually, i, think, that, the, the crypto, market, is, going, to, become independent of, the, financial, world, um, as, well, too and, once, it, becomes, independent then, it, won't, be stuck, with, all, of, these, problems, of, what is, the, fed, going, to, do

where, interest, rates, how, are, tech, stocks what, kathy, woods, portfolio, did, this, week or, that, week, all, of, those, things, will then, be, important, for, themselves, but, not necessarily, for, crypto, but, crypto, has, to break, that, link, with, trad, five, but, it's probably, not, going, to, do, that, any, time soon, because, they, just, got, everybody, in on, the, idea, that, it, was, the, the, further out, part, of, the, risk, spectrum so, you're, anticipating, uh, you, know choppy, waters, for, 2022, for, crypto because, it's, classified, as, a, risk, on asset, and, all, risk, on, assets, suffer, kind of, a, a, similar, fate, and, uh, that, could, be kind, of, bearish, crypto, in, 2022.

longer, term can, i, just, jump, in, and, yeah, just, jump, in and, say that's, already, been, happening, yeah, i, was just, looking, at, some, numbers, this morning, um, i, went, back, to, april, 30th um bitcoin's, down, 25, since, april, 30th, uh the, d5, pulse, index, is, down, 50, since april, 30th, the bloomberg, crypto, galaxy, index, which, is an, index, of, all, the, coins, is, down, 15 since, april, 30th, we've, been, in, eight, or nine, months, of, choppy, waters, already, and i, think, we're, going, to, see, more, of, the same as, we, go, forward, from, here, uh, so, what i'm, arguing, is what, you, have, seen, over, the, last, several months, will, probably, continue, as, we, sort

out, you, know, what, the, fed's, going, to, do and, that, the, the, biggest, risk, off, a, risk on, asset, excuse, me, is, is, crypto guys, we, have, so, many, more, questions, for jim, including, talking, a, little, bit, more about, um, you, know bull, bear, market, how, long, this, this lasts, talking, a, little, bit, about, the politics, here, uh, transitory, inflation also, the, metaverse, but, before, we, do, we want, to, thank, the, sponsors, that, made this, episode, possible, if, you're, enjoying this, conversation, make, sure, you, like, and subscribe, during, the, sponsor, break thanks, a, lot, we'll, be, back, in, just, a, few minutes so, you've, got, some, money, and, you, want, to spend you, me, shopping, now, bro, when, you, should be, saving, you'll, never, buy, a, house, at

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is, being, handed, over, to, the, community you, can, be, a, part, of, this, story, of, a cross, by, joining, the, discord, and becoming, a, co-founder, and, helping, to design, the, fair, fair, launch, of, a, cross if, you, want, to, bridge, your, assets quickly, and, securely, go, to, across.to, to bridge, your, assets, between, eth, optimism arbitrarum, or, boba, networks hey, guys, we, are, back, on, bankless, with jim, bianco, jim, is, just, schooling, us, on the, macro, landscape, here, uh, we we, ended that, commercial, break, um, a, little bearish, like, wondering, what, 2022, is going, to, do, for, crypto, as, an, asset, class i, want, to, throw, this, idea, by, you, jim which, is, an, idea, i, think, that, was articulated, fairly, well, by, arthur, hayes he's, got, a, post, about, this, he's, the, the ceo, of, bitmex, also, kind, of, a, trader, and

his, take, was, similar, to, yours, in, some respects, basically, you, know, the, fed's, in this, uncertain, territory, has, to, do something, about, inflation, it, will, do these, things, we'll, probably, get, that, in q1, q2, q3, as, well, and, then, one, of, two things, might, happen, either, something will, break, as, you, were, saying, and, the fed, will, be, like, okay, time, to, dial, it back, or, midterms, will, be, over, and, all, of the, the, political, angst, that, that, you said, is, actually, contributing, pressure on, this, uh, fed, intervention, on, inflation will, be, over, because, you, know, november midterms, have, passed, in, the, us, and, so his, take, is, basically, i'm, going, to, play it, safe for, the, next, three, quarters, and, then, i'm kind, of, expecting, maybe, a, rebound, in, q4

after, some, of, this, misery, and, volatility and, chop, has, passed, with, the, fed, and then, it's, back, happy, music, again, fed continues, printing, money, asset, prices, go up, what's, your, take, on, that, do, you, think that, could, be, a, possibility, or, do, you think, that's, naive, in, some, ways no, i, think, that's, exactly, a, possibility that's, why, i, said, i'm, a, hodler, let's, go backwards, in, time, march, of, 2020. march, 20th, of, 2020, eth, dipped, under, a hundred, dollars, he, i, think, it, traded 93.94, on, its, low, uh, of, the, day, at, that point, uh, march, 23rd, of, 2020, was, the, day below, the, stock, market, and, when, the stock, market, turned what, happened, with, e, it, didn't, just rally, like, the, stock, market, the, stock market, turned, and, it, doubled, and, eth, one

up, 50, x, is, what, it, wound, up, doing so, yeah when, the, fed, keeps, raising, rates something, breaks, when, this, game, ends the, far, end, of, the, risk, spectrum, comes screaming, out, of, this, thing, comes, just flying, out, of, this, thing, orders, and orders, of, magnitude, bigger, than, the tread, fight, markets, do, that's, what, we saw, in, march, of, 2020, uh, that's, what, we saw, last, summer, when, uh, the, stock, market took, off, in, july, and, we, bottomed, out around, 1700, on, eath, and, it, took, off, um as, well, too, so i, would, argue, to, you it's, about, expectations, i'm, a, hodler, i'm holding i, don't, expect, my, coins, to, do, much, for me, in, the, next, several, months

but, i, know, when, the, game, turns, i'll, be wondering, did, it, turn, i'm, not, sure, it turned, it'll, be, up, 5x, before, i've realized, that, it, turned, so, i, don't, want to, miss, that, and, so, therefore, i'll, just sit, there, and, just, ride, this, out for, right, now, uh, as, well, too, so, i, would agree, with, arthur, that's, exactly, i, think the, way, you, need, to, play, it, and don't, check, prices, 38, times, a, day, and, go damn, it's, still, 3100, when's, it, going, to keep, going, it, will, it, will, it, just, not might, be, anytime, soon but that's, great, and, like, i, think, people, in crypto, honestly, need, to, hear, the long-term, perspective, right, and, we're not, even, talking, about, like, years, here or, decades, here, we're, just, talking, about like, months, let's, let's, get, over, this this, uncertainty, and, then, like, see, where

we, are, on, the, other, side, there's, another idea, that, i, want, to, float, by, you, and this, is, um, i, think, put, well, by, raul, paul who's, been, on, the, the, podcast, is, he actually, doesn't, so, if, i, don't, want, to put, words, in, raul's, mouth, but, i'll, just try, to, paraphra, phrase, which, is, he doesn't, think, that, inflation's, going, to cpi, inflation, is, going, to, be, a, big, deal over, the, next, decade, as, many, as, many others, do, and, like, they, think, in, in crypto, that's, a, that's, a, very, popular narrative, that, inflation, like, is, going to, be, precipitous, into, the, decade, the reason, for, this, according, to, rowell, is um, demographics, so like, demographics, the, baby, boom generation, is, over, people, aren't, having kids, populations, not, growing, as, it, used to, and, so, you, know, like

it's, kind, of, the, economy, is, a, snake, and it, ate, the, baby, boomer, generation, it's like, working, its, way, out, of, the, system and, will, that's, a, deflationary, force, if you, know, population, growth, decreases, and the, other, deflationary, force, is, of course, technology, which, tends, to decrease, prices, that's, his, case, for why, we, won't, have, a, crazy, high, inflation 2020s, what, do, you, think, about, that, do you, think, there's, merit, in, that, in, that argument, or, would, you, take, the, counter uh, counter, perspective, on, that well, you, know, first, of, all, let, me, start with, this, whole, deflation, debate that, you, have, out, there is, unusual, even, in, the, traditional markets, it's, like, the, baboon, cage, at, the zoo, somebody, offers, an, opinion, and, the

rest, of, us, throw, at, them, it's basically, what, happens, and, in, fact, most of, wall, street, is, like, that most, of, the, time, as, well, too, so, is crypto exactly, crypto, twitter, especially, uh yeah, but, uh, i, think, really this, inflation, thing i, i, agree, that rolls, right, in, that, the, three, big, things that, have, driven, inflation, down, for, the last, generation, have, been, demographics globalization, and, technology, dgt, they have, come, and, they've, been, pushing, and pushing, and, pushing the, problem, i, see, is, that demographics, are, not, going, to, change that, should, continue, to, be a, downward, push, on, inflation

globalization, is, changing, there, is, all of, a, sudden, you, know, china's, not, our friend, anymore, and, we, just, don't, view china, like, we, did, even, three, or, four years, ago, we, view, them, with, suspicion and, and, um, and, are, very, careful, in, how we, deal, with, them technology, is, is, there, too, but what, we're, not, factoring, into, this is, i, still, come, back, to the, big, event, of, the, last, generation, was we, sent, everybody, home, for, a, year, the way, we, do, things, the, way, we, spend, our money, the, way, we, view, the, world has, changed, and, because, of, that, we're still, not, getting, our, head, around, it look, i, know, a, lot, of, people in, the, financial, markets

that, are, now, permanently, work, at, home and, they, live, in, jacksonville, wyoming, or tempe, arizona, or, they, you, know, they, live in, um, uh, somewhere, in, florida, they, no longer, live, in, manhattan, anymore, or, they no, longer, live, in, san, francisco, or chicago, and, so, that's, a, big, change as, well, too, in, these, markets, and, that's where, i, think, this, inflation, thing, has come, and, let, me, remind, everybody i, think, that, once, we, get, through, this peak, on, inflation we, settle, out three, four, percent, inflation, not, 10, not 15, not, 20, or, something, along, those, lines but, three, or, four, percent, inflation well, the, 10-year, yield, is, at, 185, the, fed

funds, rate, is, at, zero if, we've, got, a, three, or, four, percent inflation, rate those, interest, rates, are, way, too, low, and they're, going, to, have, to, come, up, a, lot maybe even, approach, those, rates, of, three, or four, percent, and, that's, going, to, put, a lot, of, pressure, on, traditional, financial markets, so, i, agree, with, rel, we're, not going, to, see, the, 70s, we're, not, going, to see, 9, 10, 11, 12, inflation but, if, we, see, three three, and, a, half that's, going, to, be, a, problem, and, again, i think, it, comes, down, to a, big, event, just, happened, and, our attitudes, about, a lot, of, things, have changed, and, you, know, whether, you, want, to call, the, great, resignation, or, whatever phrase, you, want, to, put, on, it, but, things have, changed, and, i, think, what, we're

seeing, out, of, that, is, a, change, in, the way, we, spend, our, money, and, that's, why we've, got, inflation so jim, how, are, you, positioning, yourself, for for, this, year, like, these, things, have just, recently, changed, right, so, like inflation, just, came, on, the, radar, some, of these, fed, actions, have, changed, things, is your, take, like, hey whatever, it's, all, noise, i'm, a, long-term holder, anyway, i'm, just, going, to, hold, the same, assets, that, that, i've, always, held or, are, you, a, bit, more, active, in, that like, you, want, to, hedge, against, some, of these, events, and, change, your, portfolio as, a, result, of, of, what's, uh, occurred what's, uh, what's, your, take, on, how, you're positioning, yourself, for, 2021, in, the next, couple, of, years well, in, crypto, land, um, i, only, do, one thing, i, buy, and, that's, all, i, ever, do, so

you, know, if, everybody, wants, to, play, if you, want, to, panic, if, you, want, to, panic eats, down, under, 2, 500, i'll, buy, is, what you'll, you'll, wind, up, seeing, and, i'm, not in, the, in, the, mode, of, selling, now, in tranfi, land, uh, i'm, going, to, probably have, a, different, attitude, i've, been reducing, risk, i've, been, getting, out, of the, markets, a, little, bit, probably, since around, thanksgiving, i've, been, investing more, in, stuff, that, benefits, from, higher inflation whether, it's, cyclical, stocks, or, basic material, stocks, or, something, um, along those, lines, as, well, too and, even, a, little, bit, in, financials although longer, term, i, think, financials, are terrible, investment, uh

but, for, a, rental, if, you, will higher, interest, rates, should, definitely help, the, financials, as, well, too that's, kind, of, how, i'm, playing, this, game right, now, so, i, view crypto, differently, than, i, view, the, tread firework, because, remember, like, i, said before, when, it, turns, i'll, be, sitting there, going, did, it, turn, i'm, not, your turn, you, know, 5x, and, then, did, it, turn it'll, do, 2x, before, that, i, don't, want, to miss, that, so, i'll, just, ride, this, thing all, the, way, through, and, every, panic, i'll try, and, just, buy, a, little, bit, more, and buy, a, little, bit, more, by, a, little, bit more, and, when, this, cycle, turns watch, it, go, just, like, the, last, cycle, uh that, we, saw, in, march, of, 2020., really good, advice, really, good, thought, and, i think, also, i, i, hope, people, heard, what you're, seeing, the, benefit, of, having, some

dry, powder, on, the, sidelines, to, take advantage, of, some, of, these, these, dips that, might, be, ahead, if, that's, if, that's the, way, we, move also, jim, bianco, buy, only, when, it, comes to, crypto, assets, spoken, like, a, true crypto, knight, native, uh, and, something that, i, think, is, also, going, around, in, the world, of, crypto, natives, right, now, is, the conversation, of, the, metaverse, because while, markets, are, dealing, with, this crazy, volatility, due, to, inflation, the metaverse, continues, to, get, built, out, and something, that, is, happening, in, the, wake of, that, that, happened, this, morning, jim that, i, know, you're, paying, attention, to is activision, blizzard, is, getting, uh perhaps, bought, by, uh, microsoft, the world's, largest, company, is, buying, one, of the, world's, largest, gaming, companies, um

what, do, you, think, of, this, uh, big, uh merger, is, that, or, or, buyout, uh, what's going, on, here so, um, just, to, put, some, numbers, on, it activision, blizzard, call, of, duty uh, has, been, is, being, bought, by, microsoft for, 70, billion, dollars stock, is, now, up, i'm, looking, at, my, screen right, now, it's, it's, trading, at, 82., up, 16 bucks, for, today, so, about, a, 30, percent gain um, for, today uh, this, is, this, is, salvo, number, two, in the, metaverse, salvo, number, one was, facebook, changing, their, name, the meta, salvo, number, two, is, microsoft spending, 70, billion, dollars, to, get, a gamer uh, they, know, they, being

the, the, web, 2o, world, if, you, will facebook, and, microsoft know, that, the, metaverse, is, coming they, know, web, 3, is, coming and, what, they're, going, to, try, and, do with, the, metaverse, and, let, me, not, mince words, here, they're, going, to, try, and, turn it, into, metaverse, 2.0, they're, going, to basically, try, and, co-op, the, metaverse with, their, centralized version, of, the, metaverse, as, well, to whether, it's, meta, whether, it's, what microsoft's, going, to, do um, we'll, see, what, what, some, of, the, other players, um, you, know wind, up, doing, whether, it's, twitter or, google, or, anything, else, if, they, make some, kind, of, a, metaverse, type, of, play, as well, too, so, it it, worries, me that, what, we're, going, to, see

is, we're, going, to, jump, from, a decentralized, kind, of, metaverse, that we're, all, envisioning right, to, the, centralized, version, of, the metaverse and, i, am, one, that, does, believe, that everything, has, to, start, with decentralization, and, anytime, you, get centralization, whether, it's, these, alt layer, ones, or, whether, it's, going, to, be what, they, want, to, do, with, the, metaverse that, ultimately, you, haven't, accomplished anything, if, we, wind, up, with, a, a centralized, version, of, the, metaverse says, i, quick, to, you, guys, before, we started, maybe, when, facebook, creates, meta they, can, just, take, everybody, who's, been canceled, on, facebook, and, say, okay, you're automatically, cancelled, now, in, a, new metaverse, as, well, too, uh, is, that, really

where, we, want, to, go, with, this, and unfortunately, a, lot, of, these, big companies, want, that, to, be, the, place, that we're, going to, go, and, they're, making, big bets, on, it, and, i, hope, it's, not, the, case but they're, trying, really, hard, to, to, grab control, of, the, of, whatever, the, metaverse turns, out, to, be, whatever, web, 3, turns, out to, be, they, want, to, try, and, roll, it, call it, web, 3, but, make, it, really, web, 2.2, is really, what, they'd, like, it, to, be as, well, and, hopefully, at, the, end, of, the day, it, does, become, its, vision, of, being, a truly, decentralized, world, do, you, think they'll, be, successful, jim i, hope, they're, not, successful, um, at, it and, the, reason, i, say, i, hope, i, you, know, i say, that is, let, me, throw, into, the

world, and, i, can, almost, throw, the question, to, you, i, get, a, little, dismayed by, a, lot, of, these, alt, layer, ones, that are, basically, so, centralized, and, all they, can, continue, to, do, is, just, push, tps speeds, oh, look, at, how, fast, we, could, do all, of, our, trades, yeah, well, you, got, like seven, validators, oh, who, cares, but, all you, get, is, cheap, fees, and, real, fast turnaround, and, that's, all, you, really want, well, if, that's, really, all, we, really want then, we're, never, going, to, really realize, the world, of, a, bankless, world, we're, just going, to, have, a, digital, banked, world, is what, we're, going, to, wind, up, doing, so, i'd like, to, think, that, they're, not, going, to be, successful, at, it, like, i'd, like, to think, a, lot, of, these, alt, layer, ones, are going, to, be, forced, at, some, point

screaming, kicking, to, decentralize, in, one way, or, another, because, that's, going, to be, the, only, true, path, to, where, we're going, to, go, in, this, world, but at, times, i, i, think, yes, we're, going, to that's, where, we're, going, to, go, and, then at, times, i, go, man, we're, just, going, to wind, up, recreating, a, digital, world, a digital, version, of, the, tradfy, system, and we're, not, really, going, to, accomplish, a whole, lot, so you, tell, me, i, mean, i, kind, of, go, back, and forth, on, it, i, want, to, believe, we're going, to, go, decentralized, and, i, hope, we go, decentralized you, wanted, you, guys, tell, me, why, we, will oh, i, think, it's, uh, it's, definitely, a competitive, edge, when, so, much, of, the crypto, world, was, was, uh, decentralized coming, out, of, the, bear, market, like really, the, only, things, that, made, it, out

of, the bear, market, were, bitcoin, ethereum and, dogecoin, which, is, actually meaningfully, decentralized, and, so, like centralization, actually, was, like, a competitive, edge, um, but, i, uh, but, i, think what, with, what, we're, seeing, uh, exactly what, you're, what, you're, talking, about with, facebook, pivoting, to, meta, and microsoft, buying, activision, blizzard like, they're, cornering, the, centralized version, of, the, metaverse, right, like, they can, do, centralization, way, better, than, we can, uh, and, so, like, while, perhaps centralization, was, a, competitive, edge, in 2021, and, maybe, it, still, will, be, in, 2022 with, regards, to, crypto, the, long, game, is decentralization, um, and, so, maybe, the strategy, for, these, alt, layer, ones, is like, start, start, centralized, because, you got, to, go, to, market, and, on, board, people with, cheap, fees, but, then, learn, and, carve

a, viable, path, towards, decentralization because, well, now, you've, got, to, now you've, got, to, compete, with, the centralization, of, facebook, and, and microsoft, and, like, you're, never, going to compete, with, their, level, of centralization, they, they, lean, into, it right i, hope, you're, right, i, i, would, say, that um, preaching, to, centralization, like, a couple, of, things, i've, learned, it's, like uh, it's, very, difficult, to, preach decentralization, when, numbers, going, up like, on, the, other, side, of, things, because people, don't, really, care, in, like, the, you know, the, bull, market, fervor, but, one, of the, reasons, i, guess, the, investment, case for, decentralization, is, that, um basically, that, is, that, is, the, rock, on which, we, build, all, of, crypto, and, the metaverse, is, about, property, rights, it's

not, about, virtual, reality, that, zuck thinks, it's, about, property, rights, and, if you, believe, that, then, the, entire, thesis of, the, space, everything, in, this, space has, to, be, built, onto, centralization, and the, investment, case, here, is, like decentralization, is, the, only, true, moat right, and, uh, i, think, that'll, prove itself, out, over, time, but, you, have, to, be sort, of, the, prophet, in, the, wilderness kind, of, like talking, about, that, and, and, believing that, sort, of, contrarian, for, a, period, of time, um, but, we've, also, seen, this, play out, in, in, other, you, know, bull, markets with, bear, comes, maybe, maybe, 2022 will, uh, will br, bring, the, market, back, to, the realization, that, hey, decentralization, is the, thing, that, matters, so, yeah, we're

still, uber, bullish, on, it, and, uh, want, to be, on, that, side, of, of, history, but, also, i i, do, think, that, there, are, some centralized, solutions, that, are, on boarding, the, masses, into, crypto, in, a very, healthy, way, that, will, like reinforce, and, and, uh, come, back, to, some of, the, more, decentralized, elements, of crypto, too, so, in, the, end, it's, it's, all increased, the, pie, net, win, for, everyone uh, and, i, think, that's, how, it, plays, out but we'll, see, man, it's, a, journey, it's, really impossible, to, predict, the, future, isn't it, and, thank, you, so, much, for, spending some, time, with, us, jim, today, helping, us understand, the, uh, like, what's, going, on in, the, macro, markets, i, think, this, has been, a, fantastic, education, for, everyone today, uh, last, question, for, you, man, we

really, appreciate, how, into, crypto culture, you've, gotten, recently, i, noticed you're, wearing, a, crypto, shirt, what's, on this, shirt yeah, so, uh there, we, go, this, is, really, kind, of, the way, that, you, got, it, i, tried, it, this, is for, all, my, old, trip, my, no, coiner, friends i, wear, this, shirt do, they, think, you're, crazy, do, they, think you're, great, oh, yeah, oh, yeah, by, the, way i i, think, the, biggest, degens, in, this, space are, the, no, coiners, they, just, are, so obsessed, with, the, damn, price, of, these things, going, up, and, down, and, get, so irate, when, one, number, go, up, they're, the worst, and, stuff, but, hopefully, i, can, get them, to, change, their, opinion keep, representing, and, uh, we, appreciate it, thank, you, for, like, being, a, bridge

once, again, between, traditional, finance and, and, crypto, um, you're, welcome, on anytime, we'd, love, to, have, you, back, soon jim, thank, you, thank, you, i, enjoyed, it guys, written, disclaimers, of, course, we have, no, idea, what, is, going, to, happen over, the, next, six, months, over, the, next six, years, none, of, this, was, financial advice, is, risky, crypto, is, risky, so, is, d5 you, could, definitely, lose, what, you, put in, but, we, are, headed, west, this, is, the frontier, it's, not, for, everyone, but, we're glad, you're, with, us, on, the, bankless journey, thanks, a, lot