Why The Hard Money Thesis Is Set To Explode Very Soon (Full Thesis)

Transcript

I mean, frankly, like the chart of Zcash against in Bitcoin denominated terms looks phenomenal both on the weekly and and monthly time frame. And then, you know, the other piece is like I think monetary assets to me are personally more attractive than revenue generating assets. Just like the streets of Manhattan, I'm going to keep this quick. Over 70% of our viewers are not subscribers. Yes, [music] you. Every week, we interview some of the best entrepreneurs and investors in the financial industry. The easiest way to support our channel [music] is to hit the like and smash the subscribe button.

Now, sit back, relax, and enjoy today's show. All righty, guys. Welcome back to Stabled Up episode number 48, our premiier weekly stable coin show powered by our friends at FRA. Visit fra.com to learn more about their stable coin products as well as Fraet, their new digital dollar product. We've got Will Clemente. I believe it's his second time on the show. Will, good to have you. Um, and what a month for the macro enjoyers. >> What's up, guys? Great to see you again. Thanks for having me on. Uh, yeah, definitely definitely been an interesting couple weeks.

>> Yeah, man. I mean, I was telling you prior to joining that I was just at Jackson Hole uh for the Fed meeting last week, and it was a hell of a meeting for a variety of reasons, namely the kind of uh distinction in roles, you could say, between the Treasury and the Fed uh with uh Scott Bessant buying longdated bonds to try to reduce the steepening of the yield curves. The 30-year is over 5.2%, the 10-year over 4.7%. um people calling this a crisis right now and a very interesting structural demand for stable coin issuance uh kind of starting to to escalate here. So you've been kind of you know when this

news came out from Besson on your X and just through your content you basically you know saw this as the green light for Bitcoin and I saw your posts you were kind of accumulating in the 60s and then great timing there. We saw a really nice move. maybe you could just set the stage for us a bit as to where you know what changed for you in your kind of model of Bitcoin um you know about a month ago and how that kind of pertains to the macro environment. >> Yeah, sure thing. Um I guess we could start with maybe going towards last year uh and then and then get towards today.

Um towards like the back half of of the summer, I became a bit more interested in specifically commodities. Um the gold chart looked insane. Um printed like one of the most beautiful consolidation patterns I've ever seen. And um meanwhile, you know, you had these overhanging supply and demand issues in crypto paired with, I guess, a general lack of innovation outside of things like Hyperlid and a couple other select pockets. And so um I felt that it made more sense to to spend more mental energy focusing there. Um I thought there was a window that Bitcoin could have done well in the back half of the year where small caps had had ripped. Uh

gold had gone on a tear. Uh silver was doing well. uh and and and that's what you know kind of right before we printed this I guess fake breakout to all-time highs um which preluded the you know 1010 and uh and the huge liquidations that that followed and and specifically were detrimental to uh to like non- Bitcoin assets um kind of shifted focus uh fully away after after you know a window where I thought it could have done well uh in the back half of the year um sold down a lot of the the personal position that I had at the beginning of of this year just as you know I went through 2022 and it was not fun at all felt like there was a lot of kind of um you know

nothing's ever plays out the same but um there there were there were echoes of of of kind of the um way that 2022 unfolded especially the price action way things were trading um and so kind of just you know didn't didn't completely uh you know stop paying attention but but kind of mentally put it off to the side for for a bit focusing on on things like energy at the beginning of the year and then obviously um it was hard not to be paying attention and and get caught up in in some of the excitement around uh you know the the AI names. Um about a month ago though I started kind of looking around and saying well at this point basically everybody I know I mean I'm I'm sure you and a lot of people are listening or in you know plenty of group

chats with other people um you know trading investing their own their own personal portfolios and everybody in crypto uh over the last couple months had completely pivoted to to focusing on equities. um barely anybody would even talk about Bitcoin anymore. And so, you know, you kind of see that and then you look around and and you see how Bitcoin's trading and you know, V had completely compressed. Reminded me of of of kind of the back half of 2022 where volatility completely dried up. Um the Bitcoin Bitcoin cycles typically bottom when you run out of sellers, not necessarily when you have some like random catalyst um that you know causes it to like start trending up again. It's it's typically, you know, you kind of run out of sellers, bleeds out, like

there's no interest, and then all of a sudden, you know, you get this reflexive move up after an impulse off the lows, usually just from kind of like supply and demand. Um, and so there's that, you know, kind of looked at like what are, you know, 2022 is even more clear. You'd say what what are the things that drove uh the market down to where we are today? And then, you know, how are those things priced in and like what's the what's the outlook for those things? you know probabilistic outcome say you know going forward for those things. Um and in 2022 it was, you know, interest rates had had gone up uh pretty sharply over the course of the year and then you know we had credit contagion and then FTX the back half of the year and so you know I think that was a lot more

straightforward in terms of saying like interest rates are skewed to to go down over the next five or 10 years like you know we need to debase the currency to to you know service the debt load in the US like you know this this ultra high you know interest rate environment can't go on forever um or this relative high ultra high interest rate enirment retirement. Um, you know, the the FTX stuff had already played out. You know, price didn't really uh puke that much after that had happened, which was kind of a a hint. Um, and then, you know, all the credit contagion stuff. You kind of sat there and said like, how much worse could this get?

>> Yeah, man. >> I think I think this this this time around, you know, it wasn't wasn't as clear, I'd say. definitely like I think a little little more tricky, but you know the main the main two things or you could toss a third one in there I guess would be um you know quantum DATs and then kind of the relative underperformance of Bitcoin to other assets. Um the third one you know after Bitcoin's underperformed everything for a year and it's bleeding out with no Vall like everybody who wanted to pivot quickly out and pivot to the next like shiny thing they they've probably already done so off over the course of a year, right? Hot money is probably already out. Um, so like that's kind of checked off. The quantum stuff I do think is a real fear, especially when you look like 5 10 years out. Um, but

you know, I think 50% off the highs in USD terms, 70% off the highs in in gold terms. Um, um, you know, I I think that's probably a good enough pricing in of of of that risk at least for the time being. And then I guess the other the other piece on that is like you're not if if the quantum stuff gets resolved, you know, um I I think Bitcoin would would pop if it came out of out of nowhere, but like in re in reality like the way it probably plays out is you probably get these, you know, uh headlines or pieces of information showing that, you know, developers are are working towards a solution. And so like you're not it's unlikely that you're able to buy at the same price once that that risk is is gone. Um, and

which is kind of like what the bottom looks like, right? You're more so like looking at like what's the skew of of the these risks that are currently weighing weighing down on the price like going away or getting worse like going on a going forward basis. Um, so that that's the quantum one. And then and then on the dad's side, which I think was the biggest specifically with Sailor, I think once once Sailor had sold, you know, and I had put out a post um you know, called um I don't know, a couple months ago basically saying like, you know, Sailor's got to kind of choose between the BTC, MSTR, and and and the preps here. And um he decided, you know, it was a clear because, you know, Sailor can can be somewhat unpredictable, but um you know, seemingly he made the right the right choice, which was to to start,

you know, selling some of the Bitcoin to rep STRC. And so once he had done that to me it was like okay this this risk is no longer you know one that should be that much of an overhang especially when the market is no longer going down on headlines of saleor selling which to me is showing that the market's actually you know pricing in a d-risking of him needing slower the market went without him actually selling the bitcoin then the greater the risk was because like the the um you know over collateralization of the bitcoin relative to the preps would would close in. Um, but once he once he started buying back STRC with some of the Bitcoin, it's like, okay, I think I think, you know, the the the peak worries about this have probably passed.

And so, you know, for me, I I kind of looked at it that way. Uh, and that's why I ended up buying spot. I mean, I wish I'd bought some calls cuz V was floored and would have been fantastic. But, um, that that was, you know, I I didn't think that we were going to get a crazy move in like a week or something. It was like, you know, the these are these are like long longer term spot buys. Um and then you know shortly after we got this catalyst of of Besson announcing um you know the the buybacks on the long end um which had also come after you know um the Treasury um you know intervening and and and and trying to bolster up uh the yen and you know I think the reasoning behind that was that if they didn't help then u the bank of

Japan would potentially need to sell US treasuries to to defend the currency and they're one of the largest holders of of treasuries. Um so you know I think I think now Bitcoin is starting to to find um you know you had this big impulse which I think was kind of just you know people had kind of written it off. Um you know probably taken down their allocation to go chase other things. Um you had priced in a lot of the risks and you know just think as as kind of always goes just like bled out. People stopped paying attention to it. But, you know, now now I think um not only have have you kind of priced a lot of those risks in over the past year, now we actually kind of have um you know, a narrative to to grasp on to and I would say actually maybe a couple

um and and uh you know, people always try to like ascribe a a narrative to the to the price action, but I I do think there's some justification for this move fundamentally. um you know nothing has really changed with um the debt situation, the government, but the forcing function is the market and specifically you know yields ticking up um and and you know um knocking on the door of of potentially breaking out and every time they seemingly do so Scott Besson comes out and starts talking. I mean, he did this again yesterday, >> you know, you this oil move and uh you this oil move and then Scott Besson came out saying that like even hinting out that he was potentially coordinating with Wor in the morning and uh you know, I don't really think it's coincidence.

So, you know, there's there's like the the the debt piece, you know, the financial repression uh in the US piece, um which I think is unless you think that politicians are going to cut spending is is kind of like a you know, it sounds cringe, but like a mathematical conclusion that they're going to have to run financial repression where basically inflation outpaces um you know, wherever they peg rates to get the the fiat, you know, debt load down. Um there's that. There's also, you know, I think potential socialist pressures in the US. Um, you know, that that will continue to get exacerbated by wealth inequality, centralization, um, you know, the hating of data centers and and, you know, flocks, right? Like

these are all like social >> political thing. >> Yeah. These are these are all like social cultural zeitgeist things I think also that um, you know, make people more susceptible to be looking for something that's decentralized and like outside of the system. Um there there there's those things and then I guess the other one um is you know kind of I think you could you could see Bitcoin as a bit of an AI buildout hedge if you will because if if I mean at this point a lot of these you know a lot of the circular financing stuff whatever I'm not an expert in that and you know any of that. Um there's people that spend their their whole day like you know their whole lifetime like analyzing all the stuff at at big banks and whatever. Um, but you know, I I do think you could you could make an

argument and say, well, you know, if this buildout gets ahead of itself and you've got all of this, you know, debt creation um to to fund the buildout, then, you know, they're going to have to backs stop it. Um, and, you know, Bitcoin is kind of a could be seen as kind of a hedge against like the excess liquidity that would be needed to to um, you know, come about to to backs stop that. So yeah, I think uh the first one probably has the most credence, you know, the debt situation and u you know, best actions, but yeah, I think I think there's a couple things brewing that that make Bitcoin an interesting piece to uh consider for people in their in their personal portfolios.

>> Yeah. And you know, before we get into too deep into the macro into kind of into the nuances here, just wanted to ask about you. I also saw that you posted that you added some Zcash um almost as a hedge to well you know it's marketed as like you know Bitcoin is a hedge to the fiat system that you're kind of explaining Zcash is almost like a hedge to Bitcoin uh in the private kind of AI world this surveillance surveillance world maybe you could just give us a quick TLDDR on your thinking on adding Zcash. Yeah, sure. Um, very small position for me. Um, you know, I I haven't gotten in the weeds about Ccash if I'm being honest. You know, this is like with my own personal portfolio. So, you know, um, I see it as like probably

pretty good beta to Bitcoin given the, you know, percentage of Bitcoin market cap meme. I mean, frankly, like the chart of Zcash against in Bitcoin denominated terms looks phenomenal both on the weekly and monthly time frame. And then you know the other piece is like I think monetary assets to me are personally more attractive than revenue generating assets. Um you know may maybe you're like somebody uh you know who bought hype super early because you really deeply understood it and were willing to take you know various risks to to allocate to it. Um you know where there was a huge valuation mismatch. But, you know, I I think monetary assets offer a lot more reflexivity, especially in a crypto bull

market because there are no fundamentals. Obviously, it makes it more volatile. But, uh, but yeah, that that that was really my, you know, nothing really, uh, deeper than that. Um, but but I do think there's a lot of, you know, kind of again like cultural zeitgeist thing. Um, where people are looking to push back against the system. Everybody's hating flock cameras in and data centers and y um plus, you know, the debt situation in the US, you know, concerns that may come about about, you know, capital flight, people looking for alternatives and like escape valves out of the out of the system as as we potentially enter financial repression.

I think all those things are are probably good for for for Bitcoin, but also potentially um Zcash as well. So, I honestly just kind of bought some uh you know, I'm not going to hold it forever. Like I I see Bitcoin as like a long-term hold to be honest, but I kind of just bought some cuz uh you know, I don't want to be salty if all my friends were making money on. >> Yeah. And I mean, we think about it as like these store value assets >> and then kind of like revenue producing businesses. That's what our, you know, PA has been looking like. And it's been, you know, the the allocations change, but that's been I mean, this has been the only thing that's been working is like these onchain businesses and store value assets. Everything in between L1's, L2s, infra, anything has just just

not been working. >> Um, rough. >> And so there there are some, you know, real onchain businesses that are driving revenue and some of those are recruiting those, you know, that revenue to their token. But I think you're right, you know, the the market is sniffing those out. So kind of putting those aside and focusing more on the other side of the barbell, the hard money scarce assets benefiting from, you know, this accommodative liquidity regime. Um I'm I'm curious where you see outperformance, right? Because gold kind of had the massive runup. It benefited most from the runup in M2 over the last couple of years and then obviously a lot of that went to the AI buildout as well.

But it feels like Bitcoin uh gold is starting to reverse um as well as you know the Zcash adds even more beta onto that. I'm curious if you could talk a little bit more about the financial repression thesis that you have and then you know more specifically like you know I read this Catrini article. I'm not sure if you got into that but like this you know Treasury Fed Accord 2.0 0 it feels like they're going to attempt to run the economy super hot and like does that necessitate this financial repression that you're talking about or do you think that there is a path for them to you know make this accommodative monetary policy but actually make it so that it works for the US and you know kind of equities hard assets everything

kind of goes up as a result of running the economy hot. >> Sure. No, I think you brought up some like really really great points. Um so yeah I I guess to start you know when when you just look at the debt situation for the US you know been accumulating for quite a while there's there's no number where you say this percentage of debt to GDP is the trigger for you know you no longer wanting to invest in the US and the debt no longer you know the US like functionally um you know not being able to to go bond or be bankrupt or something because because we have the reserve currency. But the forcing function I think is the market which is

the bond market specifically the long bond. You look at 10 year 30-year I think the 10 year is more important but um you know we that that really has been I think the forcing function for action being taken by authorities. Um, we've seen the 30-year basically being this whatever you want to call it, you know, giant kind of if this was a a, you know, commodity or crypto, you know, you'd say this is like a big bull flag going back to um, you know, the 2022 high that was kind of put in, call it around like, you know, five and a quarter uh, percent on the 30-year. Um, and then the 10ear also just just hit uh, new yearly highs over the last couple days. Um, so I think that that's the forcing function taking action, right? like the politicians will continue to try to, you know, print

money and and and, you know, misallocate capital because there's no real repercussions from it. They just want to get reelected. And so, you know, no, nobody's going to suddenly change anything unless there's a forcing function to cause the reaction for them to do something. And I think that has been the bond market. So, that's kind of like what what has changed, right? Like the Bitcoin thesis has not changed over the last like six or 12 months at all. Uh but I think now things are coming to a head which are favorable for it pairing with like some of the stuff we talked about the risks getting priced in for it. But um yeah I mean so financial repression is basically when you're running when when you're holding rates artificially so that inflation can outpace it. Um and you know it seems like Scott Besson's trying to basically

run the economy at a at a greater pace than uh what our interest expense is. And when you have when you have the reserve currency and you're able to just print print the currency, you can say, "Okay, I'm I'm going to lend, you know, I don't know, I'll lend lend $10 to to Andy, and I'll I'll lend it to you at, you know, one 1% uh interest rate." So, I'm supposed to pay back $11 10 plus one interest. And then I increase the money the money supply for the the units that I'm um you know, uh paying you in by say 1%. Uh, and now I'm able to pay back, you know, uh, the same amount, but it's it's in in in, you know, real terms, you're you're you're getting less money

back. Um, and so, you know, that that that's kind of the only option for the US to service its debt load in in US dollar, you know, non-goldbacked fiat US dollar terms because, you know, what what what Duck obviously said is is is correct. like the the the long bond is basically, you know, a marker for fiscal responsibility, but you know, no no I it I mean it's just we we had I said this on this other podcast earlier with Red Guy, you know, we we put the smartest arguably one of the smartest operators in the history of the world and capitalism in a position to try to cut spending and they started firebombing his storefronts and calling, you know,

calling him a murderer and stuff. So like I just don't think there's any appetite from that. So, you know, we we've we've seen we've seen there's actually, you know, periods going back in modern financial history where we've run financial repression before both the US and the UK. Um, after the Great Depression, coming out of it, you know, US was was in some trouble, especially, you know, tax receipts had dropped during the Great Depression because, you know, the economy tanked and so the government's getting less money from the taxes generated on the economy um plus, you know, plus stocks. Um, and then especially heading into into World War II, uh, debt to GDP really inflated in the US, uh, and then in in the UK it was even worse. It was like north of like

200% debt to GDP. Um, and so what what did they do? Well, they basically just pegged what, you know, bond yields were. And then they put in capital controls, things like, you know, Bitcoiners, the hardcore Bitcoiners know very well this executive order 6102 in 1933 where FDR basically said, you need to you need to turn in your gold at the current market price. the US hoarded all the gold from all of its private citizens and then marked it up, monetized it, and then that helped service their debt. Um, and then in the UK, you know, they would they would like limit your ability to move assets outside of the country and invest in like other, you know, foreign asset markets. And so, um, you know, we and it worked. They were able to they were able to substantially get their debt load down with steady inflation

above above where borrowing costs were. Um, but you know, who gets hurt? It's it's people that are saving. It's it's you know giant pension funds uh and and foreign you know foreign debt holders you know including some of our allies that are giant holders of our debt. Um and so you know the the similarities are are are definitely there uh in terms of you know a period like that um um and and today and you know it may not look exactly the same but it's just kind of the math of it and you know you're looking and saying well no no one's going to cut spending so this is this is really the only alternative and you know what do you what do you want to own when that happens? I mean, probably pretty much any asset, but you know, I I would

suspect that like equities probably go up in USD terms, but maybe down in like Bitcoin and and gold terms. So, I'm skewed towards more so trying to trying to hold like hard assets from here. And so that's like the crux of this kind of fiat debasement trade which as you said at at the top was almost I mean at least for Bitcoin and you know even gold post January was almost kind of thrown to the wayside in favor of this AI buildout trade right and then now it kind of seems like due to this policy from Bessant the tides are kind of turning back a little bit to to this and perhaps we're still early for like this next this next leg of this you know fiat debasement trade that's really been going on since the inception of Bitcoin and even prior all the way back to, you

know, the 2000s or in the 90s. >> Yeah. No, I agree. I I think, you know, it's kind of a um you you had you had the the trail, you know, trailing end of the bare market kind of behavior. V floor lord potentially pricing in a lot of a lot of these, you know, risks that had already taken place. Um you know, pretty much a complete cleansing and flushing out of of the whole market. And then that leading into, you know, now we seemingly have have kind of a a narrative or maybe even a few narratives to to be excited about. So I I would say on like a six to 12 month basis, I mean, this is the most optimistic I've been about um Bitcoin and and cryptos well broadly in a while. I mean, you know, you mentioned, you know, this segment's

about stable coins. Um you know, stable coins also are like a huge piece of this and something that wasn't around back then, right? Because now what they could do is they could try to move the debt load and this is what they are doing. >> Move the debt load into the shorter end of the curve or move it into bill issuance and then they can you know if Worsh plays ball with with with Bessant which is like kind of the final thing you'd be looking for to say okay we're fully in this financial repression regime would be to look to see like Wors kind of explicitly playing ball with him. you know, they they could cap cap short end rates, move all the debt issuance into into T bills in like very short duration and then just put it all into stable coins. And so, you know, I

think >> stable coins are great because, you know, they bank people in in parts of the world that are underbanked and like that's awesome and like I think that's really important. But like the real reason that stable coins are going to probably continue to proliferate is because they're a strategic tool for the US >> uh to to not only service it debt load but also, you know, have controls over over, you know, the movement of capital throughout the world. Um, so yeah, I mean that kind of ties right in. >> Yeah, exactly. And so all of this, you know, rhetoric from Bessant about, you know, growing our way out of the debt, you know, seems like it's cover uh for high inflation. And, you know, the

outcome or the portfolio choice doesn't change either way. It's hard money whether we grow our way out of it or we inflate it away. Um, either way, you know, it results in hot hard money uh increasing in dollar denominated terms. But I think you're absolutely right and this is something we've been talking a lot about on the show is, you know, as they do this Treasury twist and the Fed twist and they twist duration out from the long end, you know, into the short end, someone needs to buy those bonds or excuse me, those short-term bonds, those bills and and you know, as they issue those, you know, the the Fed doesn't want to buy them. Worsh said he wants a smaller balance sheet, right? But they can they can shift the duration shortterm and shrink it at the same time. And then I mentioned the Catrini

article earlier walks through like what this deregulation process could look like if they, you know, do some regulatory innovation and they unlock some of this liquidity coverage ratio, some of the supplemental leverage ratio. There's a ton of idle liquidity in these banks that's been locked up since COVID, since 2022, and all of that could be unleashed and used to buy short-term bonds. And then the final piece of this being the stable coin basket is that you know all of the stablecoin issuers especially once once they become genius compliant which we were talking earlier I think is set to be January 2027 it is just all more dry powder uh for these companies to buy short-term bills. Um

and then again what is you know why do the stable coins issue and then buy bills? They typically do that when the crypto market goes up. And so we've been memeing around with the idea that it's a national priority to make the crypto market go up because then cryp the stable coins need to issue more and then they need to buy more bills to back those that issuance. Um and so you're absolutely right that it's all interconnected. It's all a piece of this bigger puzzle for the country. >> Yeah. Sure. No, I think those really I I need to maybe read this training article. A lot of the financial banking plumbing stuff is very much far over my head and way above my pay grade. But, you know, just the basic idea that they can lower the the leverage requirements and allow banks to buy more buy more US

debt like that that makes sense at a very high level even if you don't have a deep understanding of it. So, uh you maybe maybe I'll have to to check that out. There's other things that you know I I I'm I'm trying to piece through kind of what high level you know what if there are any kind of 4D chess things they're trying to do. I mean you start wondering like you know as part of this too are they are they going to push capital out into other you know [snorts] emerging markets or or uh ideally you know our allies capital markets and then that further invests into and funds uh foreign businesses which can then invest back and and and uh you know have more demand for for goods coming from the US.

So there's all these kinds of things that I think are intertwined and and and you could spend a lot of there's a lot of circular thinking in there, but we're at I think such an interesting time for the stuff where you could just like go on a walk and and just, you know, go through these like thought loops in your head and and and come to some pretty interesting conclusions. But um yeah, I think all of it kind of all all roads generally will will lead to Bitcoin over the long term. Like I said, I you know, I I picked up a lot of spot. Um I got a pretty good entry on in my personal portfolio. I I didn't think we're going to get this kind of move, but I don't really intend on doing anything with with with these holdings. Um, we could

even come back and retest the lows between now and the end of the year. Um, you know, I'm I'm kind of looking on a 3 6 9 12-month horizon. Um, with with a lot of these like big picture things, we could totally get all events between now and the end of the year. I mean, you know, today like oil's looking super murky. Like oil's oil's coiling up pretty hard, you know, same with the dollar. It looks like it it might be finding some support here. Um so, you know, you're seeing, you know, yen's the yen's uh picking back up. Um USD JPY is back up to to 160.

30 years tapping back on on um uh near the highs again. So, you know, there's like a lot of things that seem like they could be brewing underneath the surface to cause, you know, some kind of short-term VA event and probably don't want to be like levered up during something like that. Um, which is why I'm personally just like holding spot because you can hold you can hold through the ball. Um, but yeah, man. I think the the longer term picture for BTC and and you know, I guess you know, stable coins in the broader asset classes is probably looking probably looking clearer than ever. >> Yep, I agree. Yep. Short shorter term, but I mean it feels like I mean, dude, even a month ago, it was like we're not out of the woods. We're at 62K. It's like now it's like there's a kind of a

sense of relief underpinning our portfolio, just our general view. And then last thing that I wanted to kind of throw your way, which is more in the short term, we got a couple big events coming up. So we've got September 9th, uh, Secretary of Treasury Scott Besson should be uh, doing the next round of bond buying. Then we've got the Clarity Act vote September 15th. And we've got a Fed Wars rate hike or no hike decision, which ironically he started that speech last week with two dialogues on actual hikes that he had been on in Jackson Hole with previous Fed chair members and then went on to say that forward guidance is something that he does not want to practice and that he does not believe in. And so my simple left brain here, you know, left curve is like,

well, if he hikes, then he just did forward guidance because he started this speech talking about hikes. If he hikes after he started this speech talking about hikes, then he's gone against his biggest rule. So my my, you know, left curve is like he's not going to hike. But what what are your thoughts on September 9th with the bond buying, the Clarity Act ruling, and the Fed chair decision as we go into the rest of the month? Uh, I know we're low on time here. >> Um, yeah, I I think I I don't have a strong view and I don't have any positions basically wagering on what what exactly the Fed does. Um, you know, I I I do think that the markets kind of priced in hikes even though he's doing this not not forward guidance forward

guidance thing. I mean, you know, basically from the last meeting like the the the odds of of rate hikes has has gone up. Um, you know, dollars come come up. Um, so I I don't know about, you know, is he really not providing uh uh forward guidance, but what what I do know is like they're in such a precarious position. You know, if they hike rates, that could that could negatively impact the yen, which could cause BOJ to need to sell treasuries to defend. Uh if they cut rates, then it probably juices inflation and the economy, and that pushes up on the long end. Um, so you know, again, I just think like these things are interesting.

They they impact the market in the short term, but like I I think for me personally, the the the longer term picture is is becoming a lot more clear than it than it's been in a while. And so for me, it I'm happy to just kind of hold through any of these V events that come about from any of these things that I'm not able to to pick, you know, pick spots on in in kind of the short term. So, we'll see. >> Just real quick, Will, before we let you go, is there any other hard money assets that you're looking at aside from Bitcoin?

>> Um, I mean, I like Bitcoin. Um, gold is good. Um, you know, I I I took a small uh position in Zcash as well. I think that that's also interesting. I don't know if I, you know, would would remotely say that it is is on the same level of like Bitcoin in my eyes as being like a monetary pure, you know, actual monetary asset that people are going to like want to hold in size. But, uh, you know, I bought a little bit just so I'm not salty if it if it does really well. >> Um, yeah, maybe maybe land as well uh in like certain areas that are that are more friendly than others. Um, you know, obviously we're seeing the rise of socialism in certain areas. um you know, Mandanis of the world, etc. So, you know, maybe maybe it's interesting to to

hold land in in places where um you know, maybe they're they're set up to to benefit from some of these, you know, pressures that we're talking about. >> Yeah, makes sense. Cool. Will, thanks so much, man. Absolute pleasure and uh great takes you at 100K. >> Insightful. >> Well, thank you guys. Hopefully, we get to chat again soon. This was fun. >> Yeah, let's do it. >> All right, Will. >> Thank you. Have a great day. Thanks. Yes.