Are we in a crypto bull run?

Transcript

GM GM welcome back to another episode of web3 Academy your one trusted source to capitalize on the next big phase of the internet don't get caught in the hype cycle I'm Jaybird joined by Mike co-host Kyle reedhead and we're covering a path for doers to confidently build and invest in web 3. well it's today we are going to be talking about is it time to be investing in web 3 are we in a bull run or are we still in this bear Market that we've been in for the last little while you're the bull market believer and I'm the simplifier to ensure that everybody understands what's going on today we want to know if you think we're in a bull run so on Spotify we have a poll if you're listening to us on

Spotify tell us whether or not you think we're in a bull run maybe wait to the end of the episode and then you can tell us based upon our opinions whether you think we're on the bull run or not and before we jump into Today's Show we just need to take a minute to hear from our sponsors who make the show possible the future of social media is here and that future lives in web 3 on top of lens protocol web 2 social platforms are broken and right for disruption you see the epicenter of social media is the creators and yet they are the most neglected web 2 platforms like Facebook Tick Tock and Instagram are all essentially robbing creators of their worth creators are a new type of entrepreneur forming new types of businesses yet with web 2 platforms creators don't own their content to

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table Stakes here what is a bull run let's define that first basically a bull run is just a period of time where prices go up you can be in bull runs in different markets at different times right we are many of us anyway are familiar with the crypto Bull Run or the hype Cycles you alluded to at the uh the beginning of the show I was in 2020 in 2021 we've called it Bull Run prices were going upwards for two years straight basically and then we entered the bear run or a bear Market which is when prices go downwards and that happened over 2022 you and now the question is you know price have started to go back up are we actionable and the thing to understand here why this question is kind of coming about is

prices can still go up during a bear Market it's just is it sustainably going up long or is it what people will call like a brand here we're going downwards but once in a while you have these crazy spikes up especially in crypto these spikes can be very very high like we've seen over the last couple months prices have gone quite high and so the question is is this a a bold trap or are we actually in a bull market and we can expect to see prices continue to rise over the coming months to years great questions of is this a bullet trap because that leads where we're going to end this episode is what do you do with this information right so it's great that we're in a bull market or maybe we're in a bull trap what do you do how do you ensure that your Investments are

going well and that your boat you're investing confidently in the space you listen to our roll up last week we talked about the a16z state of crypto report which the big thing we focused on was the positive feedback the cycles of crypto not necessarily necessarily the Cycles in terms of like bowl and bear markets but in terms of the cycle of innovation and adoption right which part of that is price when price goes up we start to see interest when there's interest we start to see new ideas we have new ideas we see new businesses right and that is the idea the foundation of how crypto and web3 sort of evolves and grows and so again to start that cycle we need prices to go up we typically need a bull market for that to happen and so that's kind of what

we're trying to uncover here which just tells you about where the market overall of web3 goes one about price but also in terms of adoption and Innovation right which really connects to the two types of Investments that we talk about here on whether Academy is investing here personal capital and then also investing in terms of being a participant of building a business in web so so we're answering both those questions okay are we in a bull run let's just start with the direct question my answer would be yes I think we are in the early stages of a bull run I think what when we think of Bull Run we probably think of the craziness that happened in 2021 where you know and a bunch of different tokens were just going through the roof every day it was like 10 up 20 up like just

craziness that's a late stage of a bull run I think we are in the early stages of a bull run and you can look at that in a few ways I mean one you can just look at Price Right we've now been kind of on an upwards price trajectory for the last let's say basically for all of 2023 but actually I would say even longer than that I was talking about the business cycle which we'll get into what that is in the show here but talk about the business cycle last summer when I was in Lisbon actually we did an episode where we talked about this and that was around the time where beef actually bought them so in June of last year is when the prices hit all-time lows or the Cycles lows for ethereum which Ethan around I think it was like 850 something

around that I mean now today we're at 2 000. we're up more than 100 percent it's hard to say that that's a trap at that point but when you look at him are you in a ballroom you need to look at a bunch of different metrics so in this space anyway you could look at macro so what is macro telling us so in terms of interest rates liquidity is that leading us into a bull run so you want to look at that part you can look at technical analysis we don't really do a lot of that here but it can be some important stuff there can be some technical factors that could show you're in a bull run and then you could also look on chain metrics you can't do this in any other Market but you can in web 3 and you can look at you know are we in a

bull market just in terms of on-chain activity those sort of three things and the other thing you look at would be sentiment what do people believe how are we feeling right if you remember if you were in this space back in 2021 you knew you were in a bull market because you were going absolutely crazy you were just throwing money around everywhere like that is sensitive for a bull run but that's later that comes later in a bull cycle and I think we're very early where sentiment is not there but I think macro is there I think on chain is just starting to happen technical analysis I think we've just sort of hit that point to sort of solidify that we're in a bull market the only thing that's not in a bull market is nfts that's for sure but that tends to happen when crypto goes up

a lot of people move their nfts back into eth often or even Bitcoin they move it out of the Bitcoin okay do you want to jump into either of those do you want to talk about macro TA or on chain or do you want to keep moving through up to you advance where you want to ask the question first I mean I think one thing that could be confusing to people is when we say okay we're in a bull run there's other people that go but everybody's losing their job and there's Banks failing and the economy is like basically collapsing how the heck can we be in a bull run I think this is a thing that I know when I first got into investing and I didn't quite comprehend that and I think when you see headlines right now you see that everything is

falling to inflation is high and banks are failing and everyone's cutting jobs like to most people you're probably like how the hell is the bull run that seems like very bearish how are prices even going up during times like this and so I think before we get into diving into any of these you know macro or that kind of stuff I think it's important to understand that markets don't depict what's happening in the real economy right they're actually typically forward thinking they tend to be six to nine months or so ahead of the real economy so we're in very bearish scenario for the real economy meaning for us humans in the terms of like getting jobs and making money and having access income like all of that stuff I think we are almost out of people low in terms of that I just probably going to see a

little bit more pain for the coming months in terms of the real economy so I think there's more layoffs to come I think probably more Banks to fail so like in the real world things are not bullish whatsoever it's a very scary time I would say but markets aren't pricing what's happening right now in the physical world because remember markets are kind of like a game it's right it's investing and the point of it not like a casino because there are real fundamentals around this stuff but the idea of it is you want to predict in the future what companies are going to do well or what tokens are going to do well and so your job as an investor is not to invest in how the world is right now if you do that you're way behind and you're always going to lose remember you want

to be ahead of others right and so while a lot of people right now might be saying I don't have any money to invest you got to go well what about in six months from now will they have money to invest and if they do what will they invest in because again the way that markets work you want to be in that thing before others are in that thing if people are already in that thing that's when you might want to be leaving that thing that's the kind of mindset you need to have with markets and that's how the markets the game of markets work so I would just say the real economy does not mirror what's happening in the markets which is why we're seeing this sort of the real economy going down and down and down and looking very scary yet equities are doing quite well at least

in the tech sector not the banking sector but crypto is unreal gold is doing really well right now so I think in some markets we are in a bull run and then in others like the real economy things are looking pretty gruesome so if the real economy isn't doing well and there's talk of us going to recession and inflation rates are continuing to well likely going to rise again we'll see what happens at the next uh release what's driving this bull run what's pushing crypto up at this rate right now yeah so I talked about this a few months ago to our Pro members um I did a report on sort of like what drives the value of digital assets but it kind of me in all technology and really you could think of it in most

markets really the thing that drives markets and has been for decades to be completely honest right now is what's called liquidity and that's basically just the government's printing money when the government's print money that stimulates the economy they do that to help the real economy this being struggling right now but when they print money what they're doing is debasing the currency and so what's happening is that we're not really seeing roast in any markets to be completely honest other than crypto but like for the most part the S P 500 and most equities there's not a lot of growth in businesses what's happening is we're actually just deep basing the currency by creating more liquidity we're printing new money we're inflating the currencies you can call it debasing is a better term here and so what happens is when you debase the

currency we've got scarce assets or hard assets they rise in price so gold Rises whenever we print money crypto which are hard assets those now rise whenever we print money stocks which are hard assets there's only so many Amazon stock or so much Google stock right so the these are all hard assets that people want to be in you want to ball land because you need a home people want to buy Services of Google or of Apple they want to buy phones and so regardless people are going to buy those things and when we debase currencies the things that you know are the equity of those those are going to go up in relation to the currencies themselves there's actually some some pretty crazy charts I don't have them on hand but if you look at let's say the S P 500 which is the look

at the equities of all the top 500 companies in the US and you minus the amount of money that has been printed it's completely flat there's actually been no growth in S P 500 the only growth you see which if you look at a chart right now there is a lot of growth it's almost all because of printing money and so the reason markets are going up right now is either because people are predicting that the FED is going to print money or because money has already printed and in this case for crypto anyway money has already been printed now in both in the us some money has been printed this is to backstop the situation that happened with the banks now it's debated on we'll continue will that not continue but more so crypto is global and more and more we're seeing

that the participants in the crypto space are actually outside of the US and if you look at countries out of the US like China for example they have already started to print a lot of money they are already in what's called your liquidity cycle or your business cycle in the phase of printing money and so Global liquidity is on the rise it wasn't on the rise in the U.S earlier this year though it is actually now very much on the rise because of what's happened with these Banks but also I think a lot of people are under the assumption that we have hit the sort of like peak of this liquidity tightening so basically but not printing money and raising interest rates we have hit the peak of that and so what investors are assuming is that now moving forward interest rates will

likely go down we will start to print more money and again you want to be ahead of everyone else and so people are starting to pile into those card assets as well why you're seeing gold at all-time highs you're seeing Bitcoin back up to 30k ethereum now at 2K and so we're starting to see a change in most of these hard asset markets even technology stocks are starting to to do quite well and so you talk about Banks printing money the global economy printing money the tightening loosening everyone every government's uh got the engine going and just money printer on make the connection to crypto for us so like that obviously puts a lot of money into the entire economy right but why is crypto in particular seem to be in this bull run right now like you said the S P

500 if you take out money printing is actually flat but crypto eth is up 75 in the last three months like there is Big runs happening in crypto why so first let's understand why the government's print printing is something that's really came along and we did it back when the wars were a thing because we just needed to simulate the economy and we just didn't have any other way to do it and then it really became a useful tool with the financial crisis in the world that we live in right now we don't have the ability to stimulate the economy from humans which is what used to stimulate the economy in the 60s and the 70s in the 80s the population was growing and the rate of growth was actually expanding and so if you have more people that are working that are innovating that are buying things that

is a driver of growth for countries now the problem is especially in countries like the US and China and Canada et cetera the rate of growth in the population is actually decreasing so there's less and less people actually coming into the markets to buy things and to create jobs Etc and so as a result we actually are fighting against the opposite of growth right like you can't really have growth being on more new people coming in to buy right and so what has happened here is the government now needs to or countries now need to actually print money to stimulate the economy to get people to buy more things right to increase like let's say GDP and so this is why printing money has become so important and now this always goes in phases printable to money it stimulates

the economy which gets people to buy things you know companies to take out loans I mean hire people et cetera and the economy gets all excited and things go well but then what happens is it goes too well and that basically the supply demand affects too many people are buying things there's enough Supply so prices go too high and then what happens is inflation occurs and so what we need to do is go whoa slow down we need less people buying and so the government increases interest rates they stop bridging money and then that brings inflation down ideally this is the ideal scenario but then typically that goes too far right now all of a sudden the economy is like dying it we're like we need to print more money to stimulate again we go through these Fates this is the business the cycle this is what I've

talked about many many times if you're a pro subscriber then you know all about this the idea of this and actually let me just share screen here so you guys can have a better idea of what we're looking at the economy expanding and then Contracting this is what I just explained to you this chart that we're seeing if you're listing of the podcast that shows three of these cycles of it Contracting expanding Contracting expanding and the key Point here is that over time it's continuing to go upwards so we are continuing to have growth right now the reason for this though especially right now is because we are continuing to print more and more and more and more money right and what that means is we are continuously debasing our currencies now some countries they've done this and like they had went

through hyperinflation their currencies went became completely useless places like Venezuela's Zimbabwe et cetera we don't have that in the US and Canada but compared to hard assets it is just consistently being debased and so real estate gold and now crypto are basically a hedge against monetary policy if we're going to print our currencies to Nothing Gold used to be the answer to that land or real estate was also and still is the answer to that now on the crypto side of things it is another answer to that it is a different solution to it except for the fact that it is a solution to monetary printing it is also a technology that can do so much more it

also innovates on money and makes our existing money like Fiat money much better I.E stable coins right it makes money move faster it makes money move cheaper it has new means understanding money and having Financial assets things like nfts Etc it is a hedge against monetary policy and it is a technology so it's like a combination of gold and like apple right or Google it's basically both together and so when you have monetary policy that's in our favor when you're printing money of low interest rates you have have the idea of we need to hedge our currencies so we need to buy gold but then at the same time when you're printing money you're also like hey this is a bunch of Innovations happening we need to buy

technology stocks well crypto is the combination of both of those which is why it's the fastest horse in the race so it grows at a much much faster rate than gold itself more than technology stocks it's kind of a combination of the two was that a relatively decent answer yeah it's great and is that also why crypto Falls much harder because the contraction is deeper as a result of the fact that the rise is so much bigger as well yes and no I think the reason that crypto Falls much deeper is because generally there's a lot of retail people that hold on to it so there's a lot more fomo in crypto than there is like you don't fomo into real estate and some people definitely do but a lot less because it's more expensive and harder to do that it takes a long process to

buy a home right you don't really follow into gold as well because again like one it's not a lot of retail people buying it and it's tougher to buy the like what are you gonna do with your goals I mean you can buy it obviously on Stock Exchange as well but to buy real gold and so crypto is because it's newer number one just like Amazon and the internet and all that kind of stuff all the internet sucks back in 2000 they also went down 98 so this is nothing new there's the fact that it's new and then there's just the fact that it's a different type of investor that's in here and a lot of people just fumble in because it's so easy it's so liquid and so liquid things that are really really on the growth cycle they go crazy when we expand and they come down a lot when

we contract but I mean it came down a lot here's the thing if you were in crypto before the expansion in 2019 you bought Ethan 80 bucks right and so even though it came down a long way it went down to 850 so you still 10x even at its low so like it's still going up way more than most people think the problem is most people just happen to come in at the top in 2021 so it just feels a lot worse worse because that's one sentiment is highest exactly which is why we want to be talking about this stuff now and actually we've been talking about it for months because we don't want our listeners all of you up to your cabinet I don't want you fumbling in at the top I don't want you making the same mistake that most people do we want to be well

prepared and positioning ourselves ahead of time you want to be starting your businesses early you want to be investing your Capital early before the others do and you want to be putting into things that everyone else is going to come into when everyone realizes okay the markets are good okay so now that we understand liquidity is on the rise Global liquidity is increasing there's an impact on the markets and on crypto in particular I think there's a lot of fear around inflation and high interest rates it doesn't seem like that problem has really been solved the government's been doing what they can to do that but now all of a sudden as they turn the money printer back on doesn't this just mean that we're going to be forcing sustained High interest rates yeah so let me try

to explain this best possible so after printing so much money and over the last couple years and giving away a bunch of money like in the US they actually just gave checks to you to people the same thing many countries did this and so what they did is they stimulated the economy they increased demand because it literally just gave people money and they put interest rates at zero so Banks could loan out as much money as they wanted very easily companies could take out massive loans and literally not have to pay anything for them and so that means lots of spending happens when lots of spending happens if we're not producing more then what you have is a supply and demand issue right there's more demand Supply which means prices have to go up this is just how all assets in the world work not just crypto

we talk about Supply demand a lot in crypto but also in terms of like bread and like anything that you're gonna buy your energy and all that kind of stuff it's all supply and demand related and so we've had this pretty high inflation and it went up very very fast and that's what's kind of scared everyone I think we went up to was it like eight percent or nine percent or something in the US that came from really giving out all this money printing a lot of money and giving it to people it also came as a result of covid right just locking down the economy so we couldn't make any more Goods but people could still buy things online and then also from the war right with Russia invading Ukraine it kind of disrupted Supply chains and so we just had a lot of issues there in terms of

being able to get Goods to places that needed them and so again we had that Supply demand crimes in my opinion I think inflation is already falling falling very very fast I think there's a lot of lagging indicators here when it comes to inflation which I'll get into in just a second and so from everything I've looked at and from what I've seen in inflation I think that inflation is falling off the cliff and it's not even a concern anymore and I think that we can lower interest rates and start printing money it's not going to impact inflation the reason I say that is one the supply chain issues that have been a big problem in 2020 2021 in 2022 those are basically all solved at this point so why do we still have inflation well you have inflation because things like red for example remain very very high

for a long period of time real estate went up a ton in 2020 all the way to 2022. it's now down but people still pay the same rent as they did before it takes you know a lot of people go on a year-long lease right so the next time they go to renew their lease their rent will go down and this is happening but that takes time for that occur this is true for a lot of things businesses that are selling products they're not going to lower their prices on their services or their stuff right away they had to increase their prices because food was really expensive and gas is really expensive et cetera but over time that goes down and so if you look at inflation right now or it's going down a lot it really started to go down even last month we're down to five percent I

believe was the last reading in the U.S anyway and that happened because we're starting to see things like rent beginning to come down those are the lagging indicators of inflation and so I think we're going to start to see that go down significantly over the coming months now a lot of people like well but won't inflation go back up and a lot of people are looking at the 70s to compare to because in the 7 70s we had inflation Spike from money Printing and then it went down and then it went back up like crazy it went down and would back up even more and so it's like everyone's afraid of like what happened in the 70s I think the big thing to understand again if we go back to what caused inflation it's supply and demand the reason that we had such high inflation

for sustained periods in the 70s was because the Baby Boomers which is the largest group of population I think in history ever we're all entering the workforce in the 70s and that is extremely extremely inflationary why because there's so much demand when a bunch of people the largest group of people all turn whatever 25 or whatever age they were they all start making money getting jobs and they all start buying homes what do they have to do they need to buy fridges and couches and you know to meet all these appliances and things they're having kids so it's like the demand to buy things was so high and they had the means to because they all had jobs and so that created this like demographic style of inflation which of course

occurs for a long time because baby boomers kept coming in year after year after year right now we don't have that anymore there is not a large group of people coming in to buy anything in fact we have the opposite right we have a large group of AIS and robots that are now working for us and when you have AI That's writing code and building apps or writing newsletters or writing copy or creating images instead of people you actually have a very very deflationary phenomenon happening you gotta understand that technology in itself technology is deflationary that's the entire purpose of Technology you create Tech to make things more efficient more efficient means that it's less

inflationary you think of like when TDS first came out big screen TVs they were like big screens like ten thousand dollars yeah right when I was a kid and then like now I can buy a TV for like 300 bucks it's the same TV but better and bigger that is extremely deflationary that's happening with everything right now with energy we have some issues with energy because of oil whatever but ultimately with solar and all this stuff like energy is is becoming much cheaper the ability to build a business is much much cheaper communicating with people is much cheaper like all things are actually getting cheaper over time and AI is only going to speed that up so we actually have a lot of deflationary things happening right now and if you want to think of AI as like a demographic that is a massive

deflationary thing then one final note on inflation a banking crisis is extremely deflationary why what causes inflation spending right and so when businesses and people can take loans well that might be an inflationary thing when the banks are all collapsing no one's giving out loans right now no one is taking up mortgages no one is taking out a business loan in fact they're all firing people because they're like we have no money so again that is extremely deflationary and that's why I think inflation is going to continue to fall very very fast and actually I have up on a chart here this is the true inflation which is an on-chain metric of inflation so if you look at what the FED comes out with they come out every month with a an inflation number and this is looking you know in April they'll come

out with one from last month right so it's actually a month delayed and they look at certain metrics whatever this is looking at all these metrics plus many many more and it's all live so it's looking at apis and oracles from around the internet to understand pricing of everything and it's got a formula to understand where true inflation is at right now and according to this we're already at 4.28 so we're actually even lower than what the FED has put out at the five percent so I don't believe that inflation is here to say which means I think that interest rates are quickly going to come down and just to be clear to give some more Credence to this uh chart you've got called up this chart also showed that we were at 12 a year ago when the Fed was saying we were at

six or seven percent of that time so this chart is is saying we're lower now than what the FED is saying but it was saying we were higher than what the Fed was saying previously correct the FED also there's like does the FED manipulate the numbers it also always delayed as they said so you never really know let's not go down that conversation okay assuming our listeners are on board with this and I think they all are if you're still listening I'm sure you are let's talk about what this bull run will be like will it be like the last boat run what should we expect this time around well so first I just want to say if you're listening to others a lot of people are not saying that inflation is going to come down the consensus right

now is that inflation is going to remain high that is if you're on Twitter or you're listening to I don't know the media and you're listening to most analysts out there most are actually saying that inflation is going to remain high I am under the belief and some of the people that you know in my network that I communicate with are under the belief that the opposite is true so far what we're saying tends to be playing out but again you never really know this is not a certainty what I'm saying I want to make sure that that's clear it is about odds and probabilities right if a war was another War happened or something else happened inflation could go back up sure but ultimately just from what I'm seeing and just kind of understanding the broader markets it seems as though it's coming down this

also doesn't mean that interest rates go to zero tomorrow right it means that we can think that in the future it's more likely that interest rates go down if we believe the inflation is already down or going down right so you've got to understand like we're again looking in the future it's not a straight line in either direction it's just a probability that if inflation is actually down it's more like the interest rates begin to go down which means it's more likely especially if we're in a recession and things are tough it's more like that we print more money what happens to the term or money asset prices go back so the probabilities are in our favor if you believe this stuff what's the question I guess it's how do we see the cycle playing out yeah will this bull run be like the last what should we

expect yeah I mean this is very interesting just to give a picture to those who are here watching crypto is very cyclical and it's done almost the exact same thing four times now which is just crazy on this chart here we can see the Borah that happened in 2013 2014 and then the long bear run or bear Market that happened in 2015 and then we saw the point at which that could have changed we wanted another long bull market from 2016 2017 2018 and then again 2018 is when it started to crash and we went into bear Market all the way until 2020 then what we just talked about went up and up and up until 2021 and then we went all the way down in these charts here which is very very simple and

almost to the date it's very crazy how like cyclical this is inaccurate we see that we've crossed the same sort of trend lines as the last bear markets enter again a bull market so we can just see that over the next couple years according to these Cycles we can expect things to go up in very large amounts once again will we have Mayhem and the craziest we out of the last bull cycle it's a very hard one to predict I don't know I would say we are going to see some pretty incredible numbers again I think that prices will do their 10 20x you will have things that thousand X just like we had a couple years ago there will be fomo there will be craziness there will be scams there will be all the stuff there will be Mania will it be the crazy media

that we had in 2021 I'm not sure because that one is a bit different because we were all trapped in our homes and we were all being fed free money from the government and so like the wildest that ensued in that bull market was pretty crazy though in 2018 2017 it was also crazy and we were trapped in our homes so like Cycles play out they tend to be very similar because again it's just human nature right when you look at technical analysis the chart I have people are like yeah ta is weird I don't really get it's a bunch of lines on a chart all this is is showing human psychology right right now we're in a part of this cycle where everyone's super bearish everyone thinks that we're all screwed the economy's messed and crypto's dead and blah blah blah blah and interest rates are high and they're

never going to go down so bearish and that's why we see prices go down so far but then what happens prices start to go up people start to question people start to follow back in and we go through this crazy maybe again where everyone's making money and everyone's on top of the world and we're gonna go in the soup per cycle and blah blah blah it happens every time and this is the hype cycle that Jay and I referred to at the beginning of every single episode and look these hype Cycles are awesome there's so much opportunity inside of these hype Cycles but you need to separate yourself from the hype cycle you need to watch it watch what other people are doing watch everyone lose their minds and go crazy and wait for the moment where your mom comes to you and says hey should I buy this Solana

thing you know what I mean like those are the things that happen every single time and just watch guys in the coming six months or even it's already starting people if they know you're in crypto or you're in web 3 they'll come and they'll start asking what should I buy should I be here should I be investing they weren't doing this the last year and a half which was the best time to be buying the whole time so the same things do play out what I would say will be different this time is in terms of liquidity that's what drives like Bitcoin and these big assets that are sort of these monetary Hedges and these big Tech platforms that's what drives their price up for the most part but when you get in the hype cycle and things get crazy it was defy stummer in

2020 that really started to get ethereum to pick up and then it was nfts that made things go like just Bonkers in 2021 and so they had their own little like mini hype Cycles within it those will happen again but not it won't be defy and it won't be you know monkey pictures of nfts it'll be something different now what that will be so what's it gonna be that's the thing I don't know you know people say gaming we say gaming a lot and it's amazing gaming it hasn't happened yet I don't know and you know people say well layer twos you know it's like look the world doesn't care about layer twos we got a lot of people to come into crypto in 2021 because nfts were cool it was culture right you had

big Brands like they're not coming in because arbitrary token has launched most people don't give a about that no right but they fight by an Adidas nft or whatever right like that makes more sense to mainstream and so what's the thing that really drives the adoption this time around or like brings a lot of people it's hard to say I actually think that this is the first cycle where we actually have tokens that are sustainable and profitable and we've never had this before even eth was not technically that in the last cycle this is the first time where we do have eth specifically which now is a profitable business in terms of it makes a lot of revenues from its fees and it doesn't

have a lot of expenses because it uses proof of state and it is deflationary which is amazing in an inflationary or in a environment where we're printing lots of money right you didn't have that before Bitcoin had that narrative so we have those things we also have a yield right so if you hold Ethan you stake it or you hold one of the liquid staking tokens you can earn four to five percent in a fairly limited risk environment if you like eat then there's no additional really in hold and staking it which remember we're about to see interest rates go down I believe because inflation is going down so you're not going to get high yield in your bank anymore which you can get right now because interest rates are high so like you have this asset that is deflationary

it is likely the future of the internet and you can get yield on it like four or five percent which is more than you'll ever get anywhere else in the financial system that's pretty cool and I think that a lot of people in the finance world are going to recognize and it's going to be a very very safe spot to put your money now which before it was all specular that it will be that in the future it is now that to me I think that is going to be a massive driver of capital into this space but then we have things like you to swap and even arbitrum and optimism and Rocket pool which are all tokens that feed off of this thing of ethereum that are also profitable and doing certain features for it so like

again I don't know that mainstream comes in because of that but I think a lot of capital comes in as a result of that and I think that could be the thing that leads this bull market something speculative will come from it always does fundamentals only get you so far right and Bitcoin was the thing that did it in 2020 right everyone was like okay we're gonna print all this money we're gonna inflate these currencies like you should get in Bitcoin Bitcoin went nuts in 2020. I think ethereum might be that thing this time but then what's the thing that we all speculate and go crazy with I don't actually know I think that this cycle is driven outside of the U.S I think that it is Asia and other countries maybe India maybe Europe probably in the UK those markets are

really going to drive this cycle because of the regulatory issues happening in the U.S that's another reason people are so bearish is they think well they're gonna everything's like security and blah blah blah it's like who cares if the US makes ether whatever security it doesn't affect I don't know 7.4 billion people around the world just effects of 100 million people in the U.S I think that we see a market driven a lot by side Capital outside the U.S which is quite interesting do you have any thoughts Jay on what might be the thing that we all speculate on and go crazy with I was just gonna say that's why you got to keep continuing listening to web3 Academy because neither of us know what those things are going to be but we will keep you up to date when those things do hit and we'll make sure that we're not

telling you about the hype but we're telling you about the real stuff that we really believe in you know what actually it could be AI I don't know if you saw over the weekend but there was a song that came out that AI created a Drake and weekend remix okay and it's a pretty sex song it's very comparable to the song that Drake in the weekend would make or could make they were not involved in the creation of this song yet if you just listen to it on the radio or something you would have no idea that an AI made it it was just a tick tock Creator made this song and it's pretty dope it's last as the kids call it and the thing is is that so there's that there's also a lot of videos that are coming out they're being made by AI

there's content that's being made by AI whether that's text content image content whatever this is a big problem to the internet right this is a very very big problem and the easy solution to this is that when you put out contents anywhere you first sign a transaction that verifies it came from Colorado or Drake's you know what I mean it doesn't have to be dot East I just I say it's the easiest and the most well known it could be dot so whatever I don't care but you just verify that it was yours on blockchain and it's very simple for something like Twitter which they already do for profile pictures verify that this the person that published this is who they say they are and they own it right so I think

AI is going to is going exponential we've talked about this on many episodes and we need a solution we need a solution very very fast on verifying what content is actually real and the only solution right now and actually the only solution to this probably ever is blockchain and I don't know exactly what tool does this yet I don't know if this is like you know maybe Facebook and Twitter and they'll have to just like integrate into ethereum or whatever to make this happen but like we're gonna need to do this pretty quickly and so I actually think that AI is very bullish for web 3B because I think it speeds up the adoption of like verifying content right we've been talking about this for a while podcast nfts and mirror with news nfts but more of just like a

fun New means of Engagement oh you can collect now instead of just liking and sharing well it's actually probably going to become a like you have to do this otherwise like who's stopping someone from going and creating Drake songs and probably coming do you know what I mean like how is Spotify gonna know what to put on their platform what not to put on their platform and the thing is is that AI is as bad as it is possibly going to be right now in this moment and then a couple seconds from now it's also as bad as it's going to be and it's going to continue to be as bad as it's going to be because it's always getting better and so the fact that we can already create a Drake and weekend song that you would not know wasn't them in one month from now in three months

from now in six months from now uh it's gonna happen much faster and even much better that gets kind of scary so maybe maybe it's those kind of things and this actually plays off my theory of ethereum because the killer apps right now on in blockchain or not Financial assets a stable coin is probably the best application that we have and you don't make money in stable coins you make zero dollars instead that's the whole point of it right but when you mint a stable point and when you trade stable points when you use stable coins there are fees associated with that that go back to arbitrome or ethereum or whatever layer you're using and that makes blockchains profitable same with this if you sign a transaction

to like I don't know mid-year nft it's not there's like a financial asset around that that could be but it doesn't have to be it's more just to verify you created that content right and so there's not really speculation around that it's just a utility and again that is going to cost someone something on the blockchain to interact with it so like again we have more use cases that are just that are just needed in our world make ethereum and other blockchains more profitable so I don't know that's where my mind is at right now those are I mean gosh I really hope that happens and we don't need to go down that rabbit hole of what needs to happen in order for that to happen there's many players that need to be involved many stakeholders but I think your point is we believe in the future

of East there's been so many exciting things that have happened in the past year from the merge to Shanghai that really didn't get celebrated outside of a small community of crypto lovers that realized what was going on not to mention real utility use cases so there is a a bull run happening and a future happening for these big block chains like eth that we really believe in what will be the big speculative assets there's just no way for us to know that who knows maybe music goes crazy maybe everyone starts buying podcasts because they believe because we've never had a monetization angle for podcasts I don't think so but it's just not possible to know on the speculative side

actually music RT is a good one because the tech is there we've already tested it out during the bear market and again with Miss Drake and weekend thing it's pretty easy to see why music NFC makes sense whereas previous to this it was hard to wrap your head around it kind of makes sense to us like that's actually you could be out of something I want to say one more thing about how a cycle like this works how a bull run like this works just because we say we're in a bull run does not mean we go from 2000 up to 10K the next one right this stuff takes time when we like got out of the bull market or the bear Market I guess of the last cycle it was actually way before everyone was talking about it we always call it the bull

market of 2020 2021 we actually entered that bull market in 2019 right and we went up and up and up we liked 3x in prices but then it like chilled for a bit you know then covet happens she drops significantly and then we started to go back up but that bull market happened way before covet happened and people often forget that and so that's the stage we're in right now where there's the first stage of this bull market where if you're in it that's amazing if you were buying Ethan the thousands that's incredible in my opinion I mean especially the beginning of last year you're already up way more than the stock market's gonna go up in the next you know we go up what 10 on average you already have 100 the next decade of the stock market you're already up that in three months this

Market is insane this doesn't mean we go up straight in a straight line this takes time to play up it is the next two to three years we are in a bull market right right now we are in the first stage which liquidity at least in the U.S other than because the bank price is not really there we still have high interest rates but as those the interest rates go down as we start to print more money which will probably take time we won't be at zero interest rates next month we will be there by the end of the year or early next year okay we won't be printing tons of money next month but we might be by Q3 or who knows maybe by the end of this quarter depending on how bad this recession that we're in or going into comes right it's

like this stuff takes time we will go up and down we might crab for a while which means basically just going up and down and not actually like in any direction for a little bit that's very common but this is definitely the time to be launching products to be investing your capital will go like I would say the last year was the type of investing your capital and it but don't wait for everyone to get all excited everyone will be rushing back in that's the worst time if you're seeing things go Bonkers that's not when you want to throw in money now when there's pain when people are scared and you're worried about all this stuff that's awesome this is the time you put your money because this is the time where you can make life-changing games not early or mid 2021 when it's already at 4 000 you got

a little bit you can run with Supply but then it's like you better sell otherwise you're going back down a thousand right we're gonna do the same thing we're gonna go up to whatever 10K or whatever it happens it's going to come back down it's gonna come back down to 105k or whatever it is understand it Cycles just because we go up doesn't mean we're gonna stay up but we will be up a lot more than we were anyway that's you gotta understand the way that this works ups and downs just try to separate yourself from the hype cycle which you can do by listening to our podcast will continuously remind you and heads down build your businesses launch your products create value invest your Capital things that are producing value and you're going to do really really well in this cycle coming up here and

once your aunt comes to you at a Christmas party and asks how to invest in crypto that's your sell signal right down sell don't tell anyone hi yeah and don't tell me about it I think I learned last night right at the next time we want them in adoption adoption let's go then you've got to go to Easter the next year and explain why they're down you know 78 of their Investments for those listening to this podcast if you're in our Discord please go to the general trailer Discord and give us some of those stories we'll talk about them on the next roll-up because I think those would be hilarious I think everyone has that story that was here in the last cycle so please please like share that wherever you can in our Discord this is

a really great episode thanks for sharing all your knowledge and for helping us all navigate this bull run which we are in right now we are in a bull run that feels good to say it does feel good to say and we've just created a markets channel in our Discord word and so if you want to continue to be updated in chat as questions join the Discord check out that markets Channel if you really want the alpha GoPro if you go pro we just I did a master class on macro a couple weeks ago two different weeks we talked about it we did one on on chain markets just last week months ago we talked about this business cycle and kind of where things were at and said you should be investing Capital this is back in January which you've done that you're up 100 if you

want to stay ahead of that and continuously stay out of that then GoPro I'm telling you it's super cheap it's 18 bucks a month and it's well well worth it if you pay for the whole year I think 15 bucks a month or less 14 bucks a month so like it's already worth it if you've been in it and you've invested and you've listened so make sure to get them Pro because that's where you're going to get the most up-to-date advice on this hype cycle awesome thanks so much for listening in everybody and we will see you later this week on the roll up have a great week thank you for listening to web3 Academy we hope this helps you along your web 3 journey and if it does please share this episode And subscribe so you don't miss the next one nothing in this podcast was Financial

advice crypto and web 3 can be risky you can literally lose it all in fact if you invest on account of what we say you probably will lose it all so don't do that in all honesty the point of this podcast is to remove the noise of markets and price and focus on utility and implementation anyway so you should not take any of this as Financial advice thank you friends and see you in the next one