Are We Actually in a New Cycle? | Roundup

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this episode is brought to you by anoma the universal intent machine introducing a new era of applications where you define the outcomes you want to stay up to date with anoma you can follow them at x.com anoma or sign up for the newsletter at ana. net special thanks to anoma for sponsoring today's episode real is a permissionless L2 designed for tokenized real world assets they've just launched their Rewards program so get started at re. rewards and be sure to use the code in the show notes below special thanks to real for sponsoring today's episode this episode is brought to you by Avalanche Avalanche is a leading network of blockchains giving some of the

world's largest financial institutions new use cases and business models while leveraging completely customizable infrastructure check them out it's core. apppp discover you can explore avalanche's subnet ecosystem at core. appd Discover playing around earlier today really cool hey everyone Jason here have you ever wanted to play casino games with your friends right from your couch I'm excited to tell you about my prize the first multiplayer online casino where you can play chat and win together when you make your first deposit of $10 or more you'll get $20 for free head on over to my prize.com invite ire to get started I'm having a day over here

what's up everyone welcome to Empire We Got The Round Up Santi why hurting what's up I had a colossal fall in the bike I got did you really yeah what happened it been it been like over like a long time since I fell I don't know I was cycling with a buddies training for his Iron Man and Copenhagen next week and hits me off I'm like all right let's go for a ride and venture over to Italy and man just Italian roads are just third world country and on The Descent I just had a feeling like literally two minutes before I fell I was like I think I'm gonna fall and you look fine though you didn't scrape it up too much oh yeah you did right this and then there's other parts of my body that are not suited for theast people are listening on a Friday

or Saturday we can we can show it off I don't know man I don't know what's worth bare Market or my b or my bodily injuries oh no what bare Market we're um I'm sure if you just said what's worse my bodily injuries or my butt but we'll we'll take it dude this um you know why you fell right Karma I don't know so when when I was um I was in college I did this like I'll share it for another day actually I basically did this like multi-level marketing thing that like was ridiculous um and ended up being like you know Pro probably I don't know should or should not have done that but I was really good at it and had like

thousands of people in like my what is called a downline and um I and I got really into personal development stuff like uh Bob Proctor Tony Robbins um uh Napoleon whatever his name uh and and one of the things was like thoughts become things so the reason you fell is you were thinking you were gonna fall visualized it wait I'm thinking that my portfolio is gonna do 100x why haven't I done 100x you're not thinking hard enough you're not doing enough thinking okay there were these guys in this company I was doing it with and they were like you're just you just got to visualize you just got to manifest it and I was like [ __ ] I'm I'm manifesting I was like

18 well uh what are we manifesting this uh in this Roundup I mean I guess I guess like uh I had a really good discussion yesterday with Kane they were launching their own pod with infinex and um we were just talking about the markets and it was like it was it just a him and I just share um we go way back and so there's just so many stories that we could share we could probably go on for hours but um there I I'd like to start this pod there is this great tweet by cedus I think he goes by cedis basically shows a year-to DAT performance of all the different coins bucketed by L1 uh Ai and a bunch of deep in and other categories and basically

the only categories you've made money this year is salana and meme coins and a select handful of meme coins um and so we were just talking that was like the opening right and it's it got me thinking because I relistened to the the Pod with David Cal and uh what's his name um Jeff Jeff har Jeff sorry Jeff from um bitwise a lot of people really liked it and reached out and said he it was uh funny we recorded that before the flash crash I guess um but anyways it's um Kane and I both sort of came to the conclusion that it's like it's a very you would think that it gets easier to like navigate crypto Cycles

but this cycle has just been whether you want to call it a cycle or not Kobe thinks that we haven't even started the cycle but for Allens and purposes this year it has been very exactly this chart right here ladies and gentlemen so colorcoded sounds like this guy went to you worked at an investment Bank um so the only categories that have made money are Bitcoin up you know 32% salana outperforming Bitcoin at 43% and then Pepe whiff Bon flocky um and sheep everything else is you know and a few kind of like Pendle and here or

there like but like you look at this and it was like other Cycles kind of didn't look like this so it's it it almost mimics the equity markets right where you've had like a very concentrated return of like you know the Magnificent Seven and yeah so I think this is really good context for the Pod I don't know if we should go there but um there's a whole host of things that we can unpack here that wait I mean let's do it go go in so keep keep talking see I'm doing all the heavy lifting and manting dude I'm eating lunch right now I'm I'm hungry okay all right let's do it wait wait wait what happened what happened to the Chart I want to show you EA I want to show you

my meatballs but wait no we' talked B anyways moving on so so when we think of this so like most fonts can't touch mean coins fine right go listen to theod with uh Joe mccan in uh November of last year probably one of the few fonts that actually you know was um comfortable openly talking about owning meme coins most can't or won't uh at risk of being ridiculed by their LPS um but like this is a very much a Have and Have knots market and I don't think I mean maybe my memor is betraying me here but prior Cycles didn't look like this you you obviously had like def5

summer like concentrated returns and outliers but like this is just like extremes right you have severe underperformance and severe outperformance and there's like no man's land maybe def5 is kind of there but it's still lagging it's still down um I guess like um certain going coming into the cyle you would have said um I'm going to I'm going to do like I'm going to do the L1 L2 convergence you know if if something like ethereum does well the L2 should do well right well not really you have uh you know ARB op ARB and op down relatively the same 66%

67% um uh well the modular thesis well no you got crushed right Tia down 50 % maybe you would have made some money on air drops uh Dimension down 75% uh so that narrative kind of quickly went away um some of the other l2s mutable which is now fully vested mostly is down 45 46% Manta is down 68% blast is not on this list but it's also down there's whole host of criticisms around you know like there not much going on and the points and the meta and all this stuff um but so so the L1 L2 as a whole the ethereum ecosystem is just vastly underperformed

I think eth I mean eth here is uh 10% I mean [ __ ] man you better off like doing uh senior secured uh you know credit and clipping 15% um so that's underperformed quite quite dramatically like just the ethereum ecosystem as a whole the cosmos ecosystem as a whole um ethereum defi there there are some kind of bright spots brighter spots so like you know ethereum eth D5 for context has been underperform and this is something Kan and I talked about extensively like you know e defi has been you know in a bare Market since even November since before raate hikes um so um you know but some like

maker you know we've talked about here is up 15% A's rallied recently um I think there's this meta evolving around what happens if rates um with raate cuts now really in the Horizon you know does that make eth defi or just defi as a whole more attractive possibly likely um this is a great comparison so like Soul def5 relative to eth defi has uh outperformed vastly and interestingly a lot of these like trade at much higher ftvs right like jto trades at uh I forget like seven billion fdv maybe more now they

announced um but you know relative to like I know I know they're not perfect I think I don't think J's seven billion sorry no not not Jupiter is yeah jeto is 2.7 billion fdv and um J jup is probably over seven at this point eight or nine correct yeah so jeto is uh 2.7 billion market cap is only three 340 so you know a lot of it is still locked but compare that to Lio which took a heavy beating by the way on Monday Lio is at 1.7 sorry 1.1 billion most of it is already in circulation so like market cap and fully

diluted are very very similar so like that's just um you look at this and of course I mean no surprise right the there's a very clear strong narrative the cycle which is Solana and the salana ecosystem vastly reating uh relative to ethereum and other ecosystems but primarily ethereum which is returns off the bottom and so what you want to look at also is like what actually rebounds fastest like what catches a stronger bid and again Soul like look at the top top left 31% it's actually higher now like soul is now 155 1

7 um and you know some of the meme coins like whiff here is 142 now it's like 171 I mean it's just Incredible strength right and that that is a very clear signal of what the market is bidding um and and and you know anyways there's the other observation I want to make and then I'll pause and then you know I'll stop rambling is a lot of the projects that there there's just no bit and we talked about this in the episode with David um it's like projects that are unlocking have vastly underperformed like there's zero bids there zero interest in in those I want to say zero right but they're vastly underperforming

right there's just no liquidity in the system it's it's like hot balls of money moving around mostly between the salana ecosystem mostly within memes um any new money that's coming in mostly has been retail um and that's going directly clean a memes and The Meta around buying um low float High FTV coins is just really there and strong and top of mind so yeah so we uh D David Canalis at blockworks ran this anal this analysis in the actually shout out the Empire newsletter so you can see for anyone watching on YouTube so basically what he did is he took the S&P so the green line here is the S&P then he said an A A BTC Maxi portfolio he wanted to basically

look at a big BTC Maxi portfolio a buy the dip portfolio which says you put in uh you you you invest more anytime there's a 10% drop then an 8020 portfolio uh BTC 80 eth at 20 and then a 60220 so BTC 60 then soul2 so uh and and eth2 and what you can see here is like okay so during this time period this is from January 1 2023 okay so 802 portfolio up at 200% BTC Maxi up like 220 230 by the dip is up 400% and then this 60 2020 portfolio outperformed I mean it's up

450 is percent so like that's I think why you see the what it feels like is the salana ecosystem dancing on the timeline and everyone else to to be fair the date the starting date heavily influences the out it does does and he you're basically saying like and I'm telling you the the first of January 2023 was the absolute bottom for salana it was when it hit nine bucks eight bucks 840 uh if you go back if you like started in I don't know mid Jan Soul's already at 26

right that's that would likely change the gray the the brown line for everyone watching online to below the dip yeah I mean thing yeah yeah but I don't think it like I don't want to like look great analysis um the conclusion I I think is still pretty much the same is if you didn't have Salon your portfolio yeah you get paid to be to get a couple things right I understand if you don't want to pump meme coins but like salana really so the question becomes then Santi so and but by the way actually before moving on from that so cedus is thing I guess he he did this first one is about

returns off the bottom but it's important to call out like there were things people made a lot of money in 2013 right so if you look at like Celestia is a good example you were saying like this modular narrative like Celestia ripped from two to 20 that's a nice 10x and like someone made money three months there but now it's basically returned back to the to to its initial price so or maybe it's up 100% CED is listening or one of your analyst wants to run this analysis give me or show me an a little dot of when the unlocks start that'd be a good thing to add to actually blockworks researchers platform that's cool yeah like literally just start and and Telegraph and then

obviously going forward right yeah um I was having this discussion with probably the analyst I'm going to hire um around looking at just like how market cap instead of we we tend to look at charts mostly on on Price look at it on um market cap basis for instance it was relevant for ARB like ARB there's a lot of noise in this analysis but like ARB as an example like it was trading at two bucks before the big unlock go go to the AR chart let's look at that okay let's run this so so you go back to where not not April around where Das was April oh April 2 right around two bucks remember

this I'm an investor in two bucks you start then unlocks happen there the big unlock happens there I think it was like uh a bigger amount than the linear so I it was 10 or 20% goes down to a$1 160ish level right see that green line after that big dip down that's support 160 sorry 1.6 around April go to April there that green line right there you see that two box and it dips to 160 then and there all right that's the first unlock right there and then and then this huge red you're saying this huge red candle uh go

even before that uh March yeah Das was March right yeah March okay so this big one from 2.2 down to like six exactly and then you have some some bid some support there like one six and then boom again uh and then there's there's some Market stuff like there's a there's a big de I think like everything kind of of course everything you want to look at this so like the market trends still obviously down um for other stuff so like what's signal what like what's specific arbitrum what's like just Market um but but yeah you know I think it's and I and I tend to single out R because it's like high qual in my like none of this financial advice but like

incredible like I think it's the best L2 the tech the team the ecosystem like it's it's a very buttoned up organiz like it's it's like Blue Chip it's called that um so and again we talk my theory is and I'd love someone to validate or invalidate this hypothesis is if you're an early investor you're you're in the money and so you didn't get into Soul or maybe you had a very small you didn't size it correctly the rest of your portfolio is flat or up 10% you did make some money

2023 but not enough to get above the high water mark right this idea of high Watermark is at the peak of 2021 you collect carry if you're not a venture F you're hedge fund you collect carry you take a snapshot of the portfolio of an investor and say boom like say it's uh you're up 5x you collect carry on that there's a snapshot of the value so the value is now 500 say of the particular capital account then the market was goes down 80% so that is now you know um worth 100 again right so it goes down to 100 for that for for that set of investors that were in in the prior

cycle for you to start making collecting carry off of that base you have to get above the watermark The Watermark is five right so yeah you you you did well in 2023 the market rebounded 2023 you know but if you didn't get spec very specific things right like not just sitting on eth maybe Bitcoin but not salana you're likely not close or very close to that five number the high water mark meaning you invested in arbit room last cycle uh or other projects and when you have an unlock like that what are you going to do you're obviously trigger happy

because you're almost indiscriminately going to sell to get above to get above that water mark right because you because because eth is is isn't carrying the way you may have or may not size salana well or Bitcoin and you're sitting on a lot of these things are like if you're clocking you don't care if you're clocking a 10x at two bucks or a 8X or a 6X or a 5x or a 3X down at 50 cents what you care is to get above the five to get paid this year because you haven't been eating the last two years and that dynamic I think is carrying that's as a whole I think what

is uh challenging and I and I was talking about this last year I was talking about this the year before it's like a lot of these unlocks if you don't have new liquidity coming in you know a the the early investors especially coming off of the last cycle that need to really get above the watermark you know are going to be are going to be like for sellers in many ways and that is challenging in the context where you haven't really had new flows coming in like stablecoin we talked about in the prior pot like the the one of the most important metrics to track um is stable coin flows and that's not coming up like if you look at the aggregate inflation of

like tokens coming live with the unlocks I think there's a great website like unlocks or something like that that track all the unlocks token unlocks yeah I think they track the aggregate number of unlocks happening like call it per month per week and I think the yeah let's go to that so these are presumably the major ones or captures most of them right so in the next seven days you have 200 million of unlocks linear unlocks per day 50 million so now I think what you overlay again one of your analysts should run this is that and new flows coming in so look at new

stablecoin um Supply growth like the the the rate of change in supplies I see you're get at stable coin inflows is it greater than the open if it's greater bid all this stuff if it's not don't like algo do this you know what I mean you'll know when to bid a lot of this stuff when the stable coin rate of change vastly exceeds the unlock that needs to be absorbed by the market yeah that's it I mean that there's no and that's where I think I think that's what Kobe is getting at I think that's what Kane's getting out I think that's my view as well it's like the cycle kind of really hasn't started we call it a cycle

because obviously like salana had a vast like in Bitcoin there's been discret catalysts that are like suggested it's a cycle right right but as a whole it's not so maybe let me show you this so if we pull up the let's pull up the Bitcoin chart so I think the interesting thing to look at on bitcoin is actually to go to go back to 2019 right so there's there's two arguments for this cycle um one is hey look we're we're actually probably like late 2019 early 2020 Maybe This Moment the other day over the weekend was like a March 2020 type of moment um and like we're the the Cycle's just starting the other argument is um we're maybe like halfway through the cycle this was like I don't know consolidation before the you know

the second second stage of the cycle begins so if you look at 2019 here right we it it you know Bitcoin fell down to like 3,000 came up to 12,000 and then went right back down to 4,000 over the next couple months obviously with the 4,000 being March what was that 12th I think it was of 2020 um and if you pull up Co I'm did you read Kobe's tweet this one yeah just leave it there for folks to read yeah so I I can read it for anyone who's not watching on YouTube but uh someone tweets out he said uh this honestly this cycle is just starting Kobe goes unironically cycle has not even started yet someone goes people think you are serious LOL he goes I am

serious increasingly I like the argument that this is not even a cycle really but it's more like 2019 with leverage and ETFs was 2019 a new cycle or was it part of the bare Market floated this idea to a few people in March but everyone told me I was an idiot which I am but still it was quite rude to say that to my face of course if we're in 2019 looking 2024 it doesn't mean that 2020 plays out the same way because structurally so much is different now with the ETFs and high ftvs probably too difficult to pattern match too much stuff about the future so I mean I have thoughts on this but I'm curious to maybe maybe you wantan to what do you think about it um yeah I don't know I like I want to

believe it I think um this is the question what what Kobe is saying right now is the we people get so fixated on the cycle I think the reason why it's like almost tough to answer this question is because what constitutes a cycle and like was 2023 a bull or not well Bitcoin went from like 16,000 to 45,000 right it was up 3x exctly um Bitcoin two in in 2019 was up 4X before it tanked again so like is that a mini bull was that a 4X inside of a bear and that's I think why that question can be

hard these things are easier to package up into nice narratives after the fact but let's just imagine if you're there in 2019 and you see Bitcoin do a 4X and then it goes down to four 4,000 um and then it rips again to what pull up that chart again so like from TW from that 2019 moment that people keep referencing you know that's 2019 you go you go from from three to 12 right give or take so that's 4X MH and then you go down to to what you're saying sure let me ask you a question do you use log are you seeing a log

scale I don't know what I'm looking at here I think I just moved to the crypto charts by the way should always be looked at on a logarithmic scale to not scare the [ __ ] out of I was like What day what week am I on yeah there we go so it goes from three to 12 yeah there it is and then down to four yeah and then in a matter of kind of 2020 in a matter of a year yeah and change you go boom to 60,000 I remember that that was just bananas I mean that especially that second half like November was it yeah Q3 Q4 I mean my God it just went from five to it did a 10x

more we published a podcast on Empire with Dan held saying the super cycle is here Bitcoin could go to four 400,000 to give you a sense of where people's minds were at okay I I let's throw away the years and thinking let's just think about flows right this is the a lot of the discussion that I had with Kane and I've had it with da David and Prav which by the way we should have on we should have David and Prav is defi summer or even in this moment right um the market gives you plenty of time to scale into a trade with

momentum and you had it in D5 summer you didn't have to be early as we were in Pari like you didn't have to invest in defi before defi was a thing and Buy Lend and maker and synthetics at the absolute bottom to have made substantial outperformance in a just absolute return you could have waited for compound to launch liquidity mining you could have waited even months after compound launch liquidity mining a month or two you had Ur you had a bunch of things you had all these Farms Unis swap like so many things right to and it was like a window of three months or a month depends right but it's it's it's like it's multiple

weeks where the market is telling you like there's a there's a shift in in the narrative there's a shift in the Paradigm and it's very reflexive like you're seeing Bitcoin here from five to 60 um ethereum did something similar um Solana has done that to certain extent right I mean it did it went from 8 to like 185 now right um so I think we should probably stop thinking about I don't want to go as far as saying I guess like we should stop thinking about crypto as a whole like just one bucket the more it grows the more it warrants just bifurcation but I don't want to be I think that's a bit

naive I think ultimately a lot of it does depend on what Bitcoin does uh and then what the rest of the you know space does um but increasingly so each cycle more and more you have these pockets of just outperformance like it has been with salana and um you know memes this cycle um but I guess the more important thing is so like over the weekend where you know Burkshire announced like it was Saturday where birkar announced like that they had sold a lot of their apple I woke up and I was like oh I know how this is going to look immediately obviously the crypto markets respond I get on the phone with a bunch of folks

including Dave including Prav and a bunch of others and I was like like you know let what you guys think and stuff like that and my conclusion was I'd rather hold a little bit more cash um because I want to be in a position of mental Clarity strength and liquidity to be able to bid that post right to be able to to bid that Q3 Q4 of 2021 right and I may psychologically let's let's run what's going through your head so you were 2019 you're in crypto you're looking at Bitcoin and all

of a sudden it goes from 4 to 12 in your face you may have bought it a 12 because you're like [ __ ] it's going to 400 like I got to get on the a bus you buy a 12 it goes to four you may have sold at some point or you're scared [ __ ] and you're like ah and then you're too scarred mentally you may have not may or may not have just allocated all of your bag and you're just fully allocated at that point and that's okay maybe you sold maybe you didn't likely you sold at some point right and and then it does that in your face then it rips from four to 60 and you miss that because you're too clouded you're too exposed right my argument

around that is that most people didn't have enough cash as a percentage of their portfolio in that period And I think there's a couple ways to go about it right if you're fully just I'm talking about like funds right um but even like retail investors maybe more so I've come to the conclusion that it the way you want to play these Cycles is like I feel comfort able and I'll say it again and again I feel comfortable not timing the bottom I feel comfortable capturing at best 50 60% of the ab the return of the cycle and that that underperformance so to speak that not capturing the absolute the absolute return that's you know 4 to 50 kind of thing is predicated

on a couple things one I'm never going to time the market two trying to time the market is a Fool's erand it's going to distract me from other things three it's going to put me in an uncomfortable position because if I'm all fully invested and not having any cash I can't buy the dips so you go back to the analysis that your analyst did it pays to buy the dips if you don't have any cash good luck great analysis no cash most people never have cash to buy the dips um and and so I think like I've just come to that conclusion where it's very difficult to hold cash especially when every when stuff is ripping but I think you take comfort in the fact that you're going to have plenty of time couple of weeks to really scale of the trade the question is we had a huge

ShakeOut on Monday but I'm still yeah okay you you're supposed to like you know bid at that point um but I I don't know like I don't feel I'm not seeing it with absolute Clarity I I basically think to Kobe's point we're like in that choppy period of 2019 you know yeah and it's fine you could just like cost average your way in no problem that's what you're supposed to 2019 you mean yeah around that Peri it was and by the way those are big movements right it's like 4 to 10 4 to7 4 to8 like those are big big movements I remember the 2019 movement up this was the binance io

Bull Run remember that all those binance ieos yeah um I remember thinking this can't actually be happening this isn't real because 2018 and 2019 felt so long like that was my mentality then okay so I have a I have a question for you why you're saying that you're timing the market by trading in and out of this stuff but then you're also telling me you're not trying to time the market no no no no no I'm not I'm not necessarily I'm not necessarily moving in and out of this stuff I am just increasing my cash allocation but where do you get the where do you get the new cash from oh from

outside oh well sir we don't well no no no no no like I'm I'm selling no no what I'm telling you is I sold some over the weekend and Monday some but isn't that timing the market I don't know like I mean I'm not trying to You could argue it's timing the market uh I'm doing it more so to have and I and I credit pra to helping me come to this realization I'm doing it to psychologically be in a better spot and feel good and strong about bidding

um in that low moment now I don't know like I don't know if we go down more from here it's always certainly possible so if you factor that in I just um said differently I think if when the cash balance goes the percentage of cash in the portfolio goes low and it goes to a threshold where it's uncomfortably low I am more likely to do dumb [ __ ] I'm more likely to be shaking out I'm more likely to think about it annoyingly and it's distracting and as soon as it's above a

certain threshold I feel good and I'm not talking about just X outside of cryp the portfolio it's outside of crypto I'm just within crypto I just think that within crypto like imagine yourself as a fund manager that you're kind of paid that's what I'm trying to convey here it's like because a retail investor is different right or my position is different because I don't have like a fund it's just my Capital but if you're a fund and you kind of are investing in these markets like I think very few funds like have some cash they're all kind of always fully allocated but I don't know go listen to the episode in David and I think it just I don't know I feel like you

should to some extent have some cash you're saying yeah hold some cash and like I think some of the best investors like always have like pretty high cash balance hey everyone Jason here I wanted to talk about something that's been on my mind a lot recently and that is where are all of crypto's killer apps we often ask this question on the show so I'm excited to tell you about Empire's latest partner anoma the universal intent machine intents are a new way to build daps enabling users to say what they want without needing to specify how it's done let's say you have an nft on one chain but you want to swap it for a token on another chain to make things

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thanks to Avalanche for sponsoring this episode of Empire go explore Avalanche subnet ecosystem at core. appd Discover that's core C.A slcover thanks again avalanch if you had $100 that you were wanting to put into crypto at some point in the next couple years how much of those $100 are sitting in cash and how much are in crypto well like within the crypto portfolio because I invest in other stuff right like like like the holding company if you like you know like it's wait yo up hey well perov I'm talking about you I'm trying to

replicate I'm trying to recreate the conversation we had over the weekend and and I'm and I'm basically going through the exercise of if holding a little bit more like no one holds cash and I'm I'm positioning myself in a in a mindset of a of a fund manager not me or retail investor it's like it pays to have cash not necessar because you're trying to time the market because psychologically you know we're going back to like the the market gives you plenty of time to to scale and in trade once the once the momentum shifts even if you're not timing the bottom if you get comfortable not timing the bottom and C capturing maybe 50% of the of the move up it feels good to have cash because you're going to be just psychologically for me at least have

more clarity and and this is kind of the conversation that we had over the weekend right yeah well I think it right now it's kind of a a little bit of a tricky situation in the market where the question is like yes you do want to have cash at some point so you can play offense when nobody else can play offense that's the obvious reason right but do you when do you raise the cash is the question do raise it sort of if you think you're 70% way through a draw down do try to raise it then for to the remaining 30% so you can capture lows or do you wait to see how things play out because I think time and time and again what we've seen I think we kind of saw a little bit of this this week as well is the market seems to

panic very quickly and the central Bankers respond very quickly as well to deal with that panic because because right now if you kind of again I don't want to make this a macro conversation where I think the central Bankers are is we kind of probably solved this inflation problem now we want to land the plane and we don't want to have a hard Landing so they're kind of in this mode of like potentially panicking too quickly and easing too early because they want to avoid that so anyways My Views it seems like we're range Bound for a while and if you think that then you probably want to raise cash at the higher end of the range than sort of 70% way through the range perov how do you think about though like

at some point you break out of a range right so you top down top down you're ranging ranging ranging at some point it hits the top and then it just kind of breaks through right so for people who are trying to you know it's bouncing between 50 and 60 let's call it and you're selling at 60 and you're buying more at 50 and you're selling at 60 you're buying more at 50 and then sometime at some point it breaks past 60 so how do you think about then you're caught on the other side of that yeah so so I sort of in my brain separate the market into two environments environment one is own good assets and focus in the medium to long term don't try to be tactical and environment 2 is try to be tactical and I think in the first half of this year our view was let's be

Tactical for all last year we were like own good assets and just play it out right because we started our strategy mid June 2022 where the entire world was kind of falling apart in crypto and all you had to do is own the winners and survivors and you probably did okay on the other side coming into this year everything had done extremely well and you could see the obvious kind of frothiness in the market um and and that's when we were like you know what we should probably be tactical because everyone is you're seeing just stupid things happening where like you have a new token launching every week and there's a new points program for something and there's just too much Supply vaults and all these things happening and you're like all right I want to be tactical here because everyone is feeling very um trigger

happy and and everyone's risk habitat is very high I think around May things started to change which was you had obviously candidate Trump coming at supporting this asset class and and then you sort of saw this like L at the end of the tunnel for the entire space which is you know if you can get the regulatory landscape to fix itself then more people will use crypto products for Simplicity say stable coins and at the same time more people have the ability or air cover to allocate to tokens allocate the token market so if you solve those two things that's a big enough Catalyst where you're like you know what I don't want to be too tactical and too cute here I can just focus on medium to long term and that's kind of when we shifted our mindset so we're not being tactical at this moment

we're just kind of focusing on the medium to long term okay Yano something you said around and then it moves up all of a sudden we're under this impression that you have to constantly be in the market and playing every hand the dealer is dealing because it's gonna up from one day to the other Bitcoin is going to be at kathywood prognosis which is you know we're going to wake up one day and bitco going to be 250,000 no the reality is you felt it right like y you're sitting there and like salana is ripping in your face Y and you had by the way you didn't get it at eight you could have gotten 16 you didn't get 16 you could have gotten 50 you could have gotten 60 70 100 yep you felt late at all of those points because

most people psychologically feel late so the argument I guess to cter my position of like holding cash is that if you're not invested you're perh perhaps more likely to be paralyzed because you hate not everyone loves time and is obsessed with timing the bottom yeah and again the most important realization shift for me this cycle is and maybe the capital base is different and that's why I kind of operate like this is I'm not looking to capture more than 50 maybe 60% of the absolute return that this cycle is going to deliver and that encompasses many things having a little bit more cash not going off too much the wrist Spectrum you know dcing in and out like these are

kind of things that but of course it's it's difficult even though like you're write it down you have it like seared in your brain it's when people are making more money than you it's like I'm not capturing maybe maybe Bitcoin actually goes to 400,000 this cycle as Dan held H said in 2019 maybe who knows anything's possible I don't I just feel like I'm so far on the left left side of the curve from you guys because like my strategy is honestly just I sit here and Bitcoin goes down and I just don't really do anything and if I have some extra cash from like my blockwork salary I'll buy some more Bitcoin and if Bitcoin goes up I'm not trying to sell it I'm not thinking we're range bound I'm not trying to sell to then go buy lower like I'm just sitting not this is like the

the meme that sh had which is buy said forget just come back yeah I I and I just listen to you guys because you guys are such like Brilliant Minds at this I'm just like I don't know my yeah I think I think in most times that's probably the best approach but you do need to avoid the 2022 90% draw down events as much as possible right and you never know it's hard to call those things so every now and then then when things look like they're poor there's poor asymmetry from a risk award standpoint it always helps to raise cash like we'd felt like that April of this year which is like a March April this year where you know um you could just see the frothiness like funding rates were through the roof you know there were

days where Bitcoin funding was like 40 something percent um you know alts were having a very high funding environment and open interest had gone up a lot and people were making money too quickly and everything felt so amazing like you're like well this is this part is not going to last for a long time and like there's not real Clarity on a lot of the regulatory things so it just feels like a better moment to have some cash versus now I think there's regulatory Clarity look I mean I was looking at this yesterday um the amount of open interest we've wiped out in Bitcoin e as well as alts we're back to kind of like November of last year levels so you've taken out all the excess in this market let me ask you

guys about um this presidential election and like how you think how you trade around it so I've heard the like there's a lot of conversation on Twitter this week which is uh polym Market polls showed kamla I think overtaking Trump at one point this week it looks like I'm I pulled it up now Trump is at 50% Paris is at 49% um but I don't know does that factor into I guess there's two questions like how do you think about doing that on a very short-term basis the longer term question is like do you I guess Santi and I have talked with this Prav how how much do you think this really makes an impact on like longing crypto versus not longing crypto like if it looks like Harris is winning are you going cash and

if it looks like Trump is winning like you're lever longing Soul right now like how do you think about this um we're not Trading the election that way at all because like these yeah things are so hard to predict um and it's also like investors aren't giving us Capital to trade election outcomes necessarily um but I will say this which is kind of interesting um we subscribe to this investor survey where like all these institutional managers like ourselves like you know basically answer a whole bunch of questions and then they send out the survey results every month to us and so so I'm not going to this this company's in stealth so I'm not going to call their name out there but there was a question that was asked is how much do you expect the market to move and how upon the election and all

these managers with an aggregate amount of three billion of capitals 44 managers I believe said that they expect the market to go up between 10 to 30% in crypto if Trump wins and the market to go down 10 to 30% if commo loses right so that's kind of Market psychology right now so as Trump's kind of moved up or moved down in the polls markets have drifted down so I think if you can chart like Trump odds on poly Market along with like let's say the price of Bitcoin or alt whatever alt there's probably high correlation there in the last 30 days so I generally think to the extent KLA Harris pivots on her views on crypto then you're removing this left tail that people perceive there is people perceive the market as right now so if you can

remove that tail from the market then you could have a pretty nice environment between now and election now post election then the question is like who can execute on regulatory Clarity faster right so Trump's kind of P promised you first 100 days crypto counts pass some legislation so that seems to be a faster path versus the commo path right now seems to be you know litigation with coinbase binance get outcomes maybe that goes to the Supreme Court one day and we'll get an outcome from there that's the path if you can maybe change that path to some legislation maybe it'll still take more time with comma that's still good but there's one that's better for the market than yeah I'm not I'm not Trading either

I I think I tweeted about this yesterday there's too much focus on predicted or poly Market odds which by the way they've peaked they've Peak for Trump they they it will not go as higher than what the day after the assess no surprise right I still think he wins but you know uh again I would agree with pup very difficult to predict like um Nate silver hasn't gotten it right after he got it right he's a one Trick Pony um and so I think the more important question is like we weren't even like talking about Trump and a presidential candidate being super pro crypto and the market was rallying substantially like in no

November no one was talking about this it wasn't an issue and I think sometimes in crypto we tend to Anchor too much and place over too much weight on certain things um and my thesis is it doesn't really change much if you zoom out and go farther than 12 months uh on the margin but not it doesn't invalidate the entire cycle I think um you have the chevron case is probably something that people have completely forgotten about this idea that administrative overreach is peeled back um and so that's huge and you're seeing courts rule in crypto favor you know most bitwise uh grayscale uh uh not

bitwise it was GR scale um coinbase Ripple yesterday so like that's very positive um how much emphasis do you place on that um pav you said earlier I think the regul we talked too much about government is what I'm trying to say and that is gonna it only goes down from here if Trump odds only go down from after the assassination the the regulatory fierceness the intensity that we felt in this industry is only going down that is positive for the space and just this idea that it's like in the conversation in the US I think also

helps so many other countries so many other Regulators that are observing this and saying okay yeah like clearly it's a thing it's an asset class right you have the in h Brazil you have a soulle ETF right Y no well it makes you a question you guys see this a lot I'll tell you my bias and I I'm curious what you think I believe the best builders in crypto are yet to come like I think the ratio of let's say mediocre Founders to highquality Founders in crypto is like very different than what it is in web 2 and I think some of those like I I you know I talked there a bunch of investors in my strategy that also invest in sort of trafi or web2 stuff like AI funds and all these things right and one of the

things I telling me is like some of the best AI Builders don't want to touch the space because of like all the regulatory headaches but if things were cleaned up then they might do they might leverage stable coins for example so I feel like the best Builders are yet to come and I think cleaning up the regulatory means those people will just leverage the tools crypto has to offer I I would agree with that I would also push back a little so Santi I agree with your take on we we peaked in terms of how much people think that politics matters for crypto I would say but all or and like Trump's odds and all that kind of stuff but I do think I mean there's some big decisions what I think peaked is how much the president how much the president will impact crypto

but what does matter that I don't really hear anyone talking about is like right now there's a big decision between like Gina Rondo and uh what's that other guy's name Wally Wally Ado for a treasury secretary like that that does matter and also like the the SEC chair like it's probably either gonna be like Gensler is 100% out in my opinion like Gensler no matter Dem or republican like and that's like the most important gensler's out but it's either gonna be Caroline khaw or Hester or like someone like Hester Pierce like Hester Pierce amazing actually Hester Pierce probably yeah maybe cus gets it but like like CR like khaw arguably would be even worse than Gensler even worse which I know seems crazy but what again again

we're winning in the courts is the call their Bluff you call you're so like that's the most important thing I look I'm agreeing with you I'm agree with you I think that like I hate talking about government my dad reminded me we talked to much about government big big government guy no like well like my my grandfather was Secretary of State just doesn't aside no flex in in what country in Mexico um no [ __ ] no but like I just think my my dad actually reminded me this the other day he's like back in the day like wouldn't we wouldn't talk about government the way that we talk about it now it's all the time constantly it's like good

government is invisible yeah and like we should just like I don't know like it gets tiring but I I hear you like on the margin yes I don't think it invalidates we've had all of these cycles that we're talking about 2019 2020 2023 2017 in uh you know pretty adversa regulatory environment so it it it only gets better from here irrespective of who in the US yeah what um why was jump selling for enough trillion dollar question I wish I knew um I've obviously read all the Twitter threads people have been posting

um one of them is like one of your block Works guys Jonah who seems to like have the answer to everything um the Thousand X Guy what's that the THX podcast yeah um honestly I don't know um I have like we can speculate um you know one is like maybe they saw the unwinds from Japan coming like the amount of carry trade on wines and they wanted to get ahead of it on Sunday because it was like so ridiculous that someone's selling on a Sunday right like when everyone knows if you're like somewhat marginally sophisticated you don't try to move size on like a low liquidity day so they were doing that on chain and or at least people thought they were moving ethon chain that meant they were going to sell

um yeah I don't know what do you guys think I've have no I'm asking you guys because you're smart smarter than me so that's why I as ask the questions yeah I don't know it's uh the unknowns that uh marginally worry me a bit I'm like I don't want to read too much into it I this is when like the Adams come out with like the mega threads of like this is an FTX type of event I messaged Santi Vinnie lingham's tweet and said I've got a sneaky suspicion that something AK a three arrows or an FTX broke over the weekend I know you want me to invite him to this like I the whole time I literally was talking this morning I I messaged him well here's what he said I think it's fine to share I said what's uh what's what's good with this he said uh yeah

it's really not about jump It's someone that forced jump to do what they did I said big hedge fund got on the wrong side of a trade question mark he said yeah ETF linked possibly so like something like that so that that's what I'm like is is there something here or is this like just fun for a good good tweet you know but also I mean we generally know who big market makers are in the space I haven't come across jump in a long time like you know from a market maker perspective I didn't realize they were like you know what I mean like I thought they were kind of out of business by the way jump there is okay are there systemic actors right now in crypto other than coinbase binance and B and binance it's not them I think yeah like

like I I I don't know how it would be them unless like but no like so like okay maybe uh hedge fund blew up okay but uh I don't know it's it's nonetheless it's the point still stands it's it's quite odd that they decided to do this in August on a on a Sunday like pick the worst moment in time to yeah so I mean look they have a big Market making business in the trafi side and a lot of people in trafi were worried about what happened on Monday on Friday right because of the move that You' seen in the Yen and all the unwinds you'd start to see

so they might have had the right call because their tribe five isn't see something that you know crypto People Like Us aren't seeing yet yeah that that's probably the more I I have heard other threads like outside of crypto it's like um like cautioning around the rebound and saying hey there might be another leg down like you know yeah people have Unwound some of the positions but uh we don't really know maybe there's just some carcasses there that are going to surface at some point I think um what was it JP Morgan put out something saying they thought that 75% of downwind was done yes yes yeah there's I mean like the question

for me is like okay everyone knows about this Yen carry trade at this point if you remember even in crypto when um that SD Peg broke a couple years ago the question was like what's what are the next pegs to break actually it was Luna that broke and then that had people go after the SD Peg so it's the question yeah yeah that's right so the question is like what's what are the other carry trades in this market that are very big that are at risk and the one people always talk about is the cash Futures basis trade on us treasuries oh yeah oh you're talking about crypto yeah I'm talking about just trafi markets people markets yeah there's uh I don't I'm have no Insight here uh it was selini who tweeted about the low liquidity in the

in the treasuries market especially the in the I don't know if you have paid attention to that or what you're reading of that like he's just like basically I was a bond Trader yeah and I felt like way back like I think it was he referenced 2021 like pre-co like it was like low liquidity now he said I can't imagine like it's it's much much worse I don't know what to read into that he basically was I think it was something along the lines of no one is really bidding like longer paper and so that's signal in of itself around like a hard Landing so I know that people are concerned about these off theun treasuries basically like not the latest issue once right which is why the

treasury is doing a buyback of all these things here I'll put in our chat because liquidity on these off to run treasuries are pretty thin I don't know if that's what and for listen is like what's a distinction so on the run is kind of like the latest issue one that everyone trades like so like here um and off the run is like something that was issued two years ago like for example the 30 year that was issued this year is the 2054 maturity right like the 2049 maturity is like this 25 year right so this is this is like people say this is kind of like backdoor QE which is if like the treasury is buying buying bonds oh the this Treasury buyback programs like back

door Qi yeah yeah um any it is concer yeah Sor by the way I think this is an argument for pro stable coin policy in the US is if like liquidity um my wife my wife's like Uncle is um is a like deep in the treasury market at um I think it was CME or cftc or something like or I think CME and um uh the only argument crypto argument that's ever made sense to him is uh stable coins being the buyer of Last Resort for these treasuries saying the liquidity is drying up like yeah the only thing there yeah the only thing there is like stable coins can't buy 2040 2050 treasury they had to buy t-

bills right like short duration yeah because you can't have a Silicon Valley Bank happen to a stable coin yeah yeah well unless you're tether right and you're using excess oh yeah you can do whatever you want the EXs yeah you know buy Bitcoin with your yeah yeah um but listen on on your Point around What's um what could break and some of the carry trades defi for all int I mean for what it's worth yet again performed exceptionally well on Monday and I know a lot of people paying attention to Athena in particular as you know a project that might be a little more fragile and you know it absorbed like I think it was 190 million of redemptions or something like that to to to some and so anyways

pretty time and time again you know at the time was it classic like left right kind of meme picture uh traditional Finance like there's uh people lost access to I think it was like eight brokerage accounts like interactive brokers Fidelity it was like it's like exactly this is this is why defi right um so what do you think the Leverage is in this market like the hidden leverage because we can all see the onchain stuff like I don't think we have like another but who's who's lending you know no one no one's lending the lenders have an idea like you don't have Genesis anymore like I want to build a Genesis and actually some it was a great business but you you don't I don't know maybe you open like yeah where would that come

from I don't think I that's what I'm saying I don't think there is um back to San this is a conversation we're having on over the weekend right we're saying let's put probabilities on let's just say crypto going 30% lower crypto going in this range and then crypto going to you know 50% higher those three things when I think about those probabilities in the low end I keep asking like what is the thing that drives it to that 25% lower outcome and the best I can come up with is like a correlation one everything just goes down a macro yeah kind of thing yeah right yeah that's what I mean macro yeah yeah yeah yeah no that's yeah I agree I again I think the conclusion

here is that we came over the weekend is if you look farther out than six months nine months 12 months it is I've yet to found compelling arguments to be bearish yeah uh for a variety of reasons now the the perhaps more Nuance before you jumped on perov we were looking at Yano if you want to pull it up to cedis uh tweet that you probably looked at it was kind of going around circles of the vast just like return dispersion and crypto as it has been in traditional markets like basically if you didn't hold Soul BTC or memes you kind of have are flat or down for the year yeah

um how do you think that looks like a year from now so let's pull it up so I think you saw it but uh here we go yeah yeah so you saw this right basically it's if you're not in whiff and soul and BTC like good luck you know what I mean or like um how if I don't know if you want to read I mean we we discussed this kind of at length at the beginning of the Pod but the more interesting question perhaps is if you know we're all saying the same thing okay in 12 months from now how does this start look how does this table look so I don't exactly know how this table looks but I'll tell you how we think about this um and and we've talked about Santi so it might be repetitive to you but um two years ago

when I yeah well two years ago when I talked to people outside of our universe and I said you have crypto exposure they say we own some Bitcoin we own some eat and now you ask the same question people often say we own some Bitcoin some eat some soul and some coinbase like that's kind of like your mag seven equivalent in crypto right so all I'm trying to do is pick number five six and S on that list that will be the 56 s two years from now and I think in order for asset number in order for things to become five six and seven on that list it has to be things that hundreds of millions of people will be using and they're very aware that they're using those things right like the reason you have soen coinbase on the list is like 100 million

people kind of realize they're using this product and there's all these other things to it so for us we're we're always kind of trying to pick that asset number five six and seven and that has to be again something hundreds of millions of people are going be touching so when you look at like coin market cap top 100 like you can have like a very elaborate thesis on some token but then you I ultimately go back to asking will hundreds of millions of people be touching this product that this company or project or token is building as and as a result become a top mind share grab for people into two years and that's what to that's going to drive all the returns could have said it better that's why I'm so Bull on deep in like I just announced an investment this week and Dr

I don't know if you guys participated in that we know the team really well they're great I basically like like he's been building like this like broadband internet and like you know basically came to the conclusion that crypto is the next stage for them to like really scale it out and um yeah it's it's it's those type of things I agree with you um yeah that also just I agree like like l1's should like be invisible to some extent but it's like hard to overlook the fact that most of the activity is happening in salana most of the teams are like even just today Athena at support us us usde is now available on salana uh one of the founders pacoon uh that is you know prominent in the blast EOS should not say prominent but just in

the blast ecosystem decided to go and leave uh to build on Sal and a did you see a a see Mark Zeller look at this um I don't think anything's been confirmed yet but someone tweeted at uh uh here I'll share this tab so Z yeah zomer Oracle said a of salana is sitting at 30 million market cap heading towards 10 billion tvl launched in Peak nuke City two months ago second biggest tvl of Sal after jeto Mark Zeller who's obviously big in uh the a game said would be a shame if and then I saw this tweet from Chris berisi said uh communo to communo finance basically the road to road to communo finance and Mark Zeller said let's see how long they survive when we launch

there so I think that Mark is just being Mark uh look I'm going inv I'm yeah I mean Mark is being Mark but he's also saying I I mean I think that you don't unless why wouldn't all the it makes all the sense in the world right I don't even do you remember when Lio like left salana like things I don't understand opened it foro I mean that was the yeah so look I I would not be surprised if they launch in salana um here's the thing it would actually be really interesting to see how they perform and how much TBL they're able to like gather relative to Camino and margin fi right um as like a proof point for teams outside of the salon ecosystem because probably their mind is like oh maybe these guys are

like very native like the communo the margin f teams are like very salana native or but I've heard it from someone like Kane like that the salana community has been very welcoming and I think it's sometimes a concern it's like oh you know I'm going to theor Maxi now like exploring like going into but salana commun is like very welcoming so since we're talking about salana and these daps I have a question for you guess followed what um sanctum is doing like with all these different lsts no it's essentially enabling the longtail of lsts and then they essentially have a curve like product where you can swap between these lsts with that with minimal slipage right so it's like jup soulle and there Bon soul and all these things and on the surface you're like why do you need all these

like longtail of vsts is kind of like the first reaction you'll have to this but then I've been thinking about this one a lot which is if you look at just the regular World um you have obviously 5,000 public companies I think and you have hundreds of thousands of small businesses the small businesses don't have their own stock that trades because the market doesn't have such an appetite for like so many assets to then includeed indices and own them and trade them the market will never price you the right way if you're just a small business that's trying to have a listed stock right similarly I'm sort of thinking about this idea that like do all daps need a token if you're a small dap aren't you better off just having your own LSD and then monetizing your product a certain way and giving it back

to the LSD and then actually just capturing value a different way and that's good for like because here's the thing if a new dap Launches on salana right and I look at that as an investment opportunity myself then I'm probably GNA have to sell some soul to invest in that dab so you're giving me this trade-off that I maybe don't want to make which is own soul or own this other random governance token that I think might outperform soul and most people are just like you know what we just would rather own one asset so this way letting the DAP Creator founder team capture economic value but at the same time you're not having the investor make the choice between selling their soul for governance token absolutely I think like something like drip for instance is moving in this direction right um right they have their own you know

lstd um helas as well yeah they're not like the number one validator I think they're using sanum as well yeah excellent observation right because I think if you're capturing attention in some way shape or form capture Capital too and natively allow that Capital like remove the the the the um opportunity cost is what you're saying of of having a swap something you like but also on the idle component this is the realization that the that the uh the blur team had that's where they build blast right which is like if if you're providing liquidity to for these nft marketplaces you're also missing out on like Lio type of yield so like build the L2 with Native yield integrated so that like you capture you retain it's all retention and game right

yeah and that is is relative to traditional like Tech uh or fintech money moves here much faster like the barriers to exit are super low and so um you know it's uh it's it's it's difficult yeah you know I think there are certain per platforms on salana that might do really well but I want to maybe get exposure to that by owning the thing that gives me the trading fees in addition to the LSD taking you but I don't want to own that governance token right so I think generally I think most daps should think about having their so you could you could launch your LST and then have some of the fees just bundle all of the fees of the platform into that correct that's smart I goo's kind of doing well jto has

a government it is a token it's capturing like a lot of things right um do you think that it's feasible for someone like jeto to like if you were to like do it again to like not have the GTO token and just like yeah I don't know I I know about Cheo I do think I don't think the current market structure of like every little project that builds one little product that has 10,000 users having its own governance token is like the right Market structure yeah because all the like most of those things will just go down 90% over a period of time by the way it's a good thing because a lot of times having a token is distracting for users like than demoralizing right it's like pumped on fun the projects that actually get off

the bonding curve are the ones that actually get attention but you give them that breathing room as you get a startup before iping whereas right the current construct in crypto is you IPO day one it's like uh no guys like you have to kind of wait a little bit so you're saying smaller ones monetize this way fund the business this way fund the you know the development this way once you get the critical size maybe it makes sense to La a token and then there yeah that's a good in between hybrid thing and that goes back to that earlier question you had which is like that chart of token performance and all these things I think a lot of managers in the space including you know we think about this similarly sometimes as well it's like you're always trying to find the next hot thing and the answer just might

be own the thing that is really working and don't try to like you know Chase for the next hot thing because the next hot thing actually might not make it do you think that that strategy only becomes more important as we have more consumer applications whereas historically in crypto it's like selling the dream and so maybe it is it paay to chase uh uh that new hot thing that new high performance High TPS uh thing um but that strategy is not going to work anymore because increasingly so you're going to have a very clear understanding of The Have and Have Nots from a technical from an

adoption from a retention standpoint right yeah yeah like like it depends on the layers of the stack and also in the cycle but going forward it is going to be incredibly difficult to justify for instance ethereum being 6 7x the value of salana when ethereum fees are down 57% in the quarter yep because of was it 48 what is it 48 yeah yeah and oh it it's an off salana fees plus me and then applications getting a lot of traction yeah like like you couldn't stand on you you couldn't put a finger on some of these benchmarks and some of these

analyses of like ideologies in Prior Cycles this cycle and subsequent Cycles I think it's going to be just increasingly clear from a you know kind of Undisputed manner yeah uh The Have and Have Nots yeah that goes for bottom parts of the infra middleware but all primarily like ecosystems and then like the applications within those ecosystems Jen I hate to do this I'm five minutes late for a call I think I'm the admin on this thanks for joining us on short notice I was talking about you before you joined let's have you on again yeah of course anytime yeah is it's good all right good luck guys thanks for joining and uh good luck thanks for now cheers bye bye

thanks for watching today's episode just wanted to quickly mention that the wait for crypto's killer app wve is nearly over thanks to today's sponsor anoma the universal intent machine to stay up to date with anoma you can follow them at x.com anoma or sign up for the newss letter at ana. net thanks again to anoma for sponsoring today's episode [Music]