Trump wins: what the election means for crypto, with Lark Davis

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show where we make sense of crypto faster than skiing a books table of contents I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by Lark Davis macro expert legendary crypto investor and so much more in today's episode we are talking about Bitcoin all-time high we passed 75,000 for the first time ever is this the start of the banana zone are we going to the Moon right away or will there be more volatility we're going to talk about that today Trump won the presidency what does it mean what are the implications what are going to happen next in the coming months once Trump takes office is this the Catalyst we've all been waiting

for we've been talking about this for a while and this one went in the direction that was the best for crypto what does that mean and how do you position your portfolio now to take advantage of these major catalysts before we jump into today's episode we need to take a minute to hear from our sponsors who make the shows possible do you own your data nope every post click and search you make is controlled and monetized by unseen Giants I've had enough it's time for navigate where their mission is to give back data ownership to you and share profits with you that's right money in your pocket how you ask first the navigate browser extension makes it easy to turn your everyday browsing into

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Taps and you're ready to go click the link in the description and join uphold today Lark Bitcoin alltime High how you feeling my man let's go baby it's on it is on it's exciting to see Congratulations by the way to everybody out there who believed that this could happen because ever since 74k it's been nothing but it's never gonna go it's it's over the Cycle's over it's finished it's never going to go higher than that bitcoin's going to zero and of course that's the exact same thing that I've been hearing non-stop since Bitcoin hit 69k back in 2021 so if you've had conviction if you've believed in something if you

believed in Bitcoin beli in the future cryptocurrencies you've been holding you've been stacking you've been paying attention to this Market you deserve this and we're going higher that's what I'd like to hear we're going higher okay let's jump into what happened last night into this morning Trump has won the US Presidency everybody knows that that's not news at this point uh what is the conversation that we want to have is what what are the implications what does this mean what can we expect in the coming months as a result of this win it's really been incredible how much of a proxy Bitcoin has been for a trump presidency if you

look back in track kind of how Trump had been performing in the polls over the last few months you can see a strong correlation between that and the price of Bitcoin and I was watching as up at 5 am this morning watching the charts watching the election results roll in and that 75k moment came right around the time that it looked like Trump's going to take Pennsylvania which was basically it's over for Harris at that point there wasn't really much of a pathway for her beyond that unless she won every other single state which was not going to happen so you can really see how the market was gunning for okay Trump's coming in it's going to be good for markets bitcoin's a quick available open

proxy right stock markets are up today of course S&P 500 new all-time high of course but stock market wasn't open at 2: a.m. or whatever or 1:00 a.m. when we started seeing those election results rolling in for some of the states so bitcoin's a 247365 proxy bet for people to hedge or bet on macroeconomic events like this so look Trump getting in very exciting for crypto and look it's a very complicated issue when it comes to politics people have very strong opinions in either ways and most people aren't single-issue voters and okay they're voting for against the wars or they're voting for against some kind of Rights or energy or whatever and I think there's a few big

things when comes to the Trump presidency one we're probably going to see inflation coming down with uh more energy coming into the markets and stuff like that which could have a good potential to put more money back into the money uh pockets of retail investors which could help of course pump markets overall rates are going to keep coming down that's not a trump thing that's just a Fed thing but Trump specifically is gonna I really think open up crypto markets in the USA in a way which they have desperately needed to for quite a while you see Trump 2.0 is a very different guy from Trump 1.0 he's got RFK Jr behind him bitcoiner he's got JD Vance bitcoiner right he's

got all these people around him who have orange pilled him essentially and things he's promised to do and I know the things politician will say on the campaign Trail okay we keep that in mind Bitcoin is a strategic National Reserve asset I mean this is massive if if he pulls that off right but the US has 100,000 Bitcoin or something like that left all they need to do is just not sell it that's it that's it Gary gendler he's gone and this is going to be one of the best things possible for crypto I mean my goodness gracious this guy has been an absolute disgrace of an SEC head using basically law fair against the squeaky

cleanest players in the industry like coinbase and Kraken and um consensus and metamask and Open Sea it's been it's been an absolute absurdity a travesty a total miscarriage of Justice while players like FTX just turn the Blind Eye don't look at those guys it's been absolutely insane so he's gone that's a day one thing genzo will probably resign before Trump actually takes over and he gets fired he'll just he'll leave before he gets fired because he knows he get fired so he'll just exit and then we'll see who Trump puts in after that so that's very exciting now what this opens up the door for when Gary's not there and we know the crypto money has come in strong

behind Trump and they're going to want returns for that investment right so we're going to get a very proc crypto SEC head we're going to get xrp ETFs we're going to get salana ETFs we're going to get Litecoin ETFs applications in for all three of those right now at this moment those will probably all be approved very soon after the new SEC head takes over I imagine that most of those cases against Co Bas and stuff are going to be dropped and we're going to see actual positive moves from the US regulatory scene towards crypto and this opens up really America to be what it always should have been which is the crypto capital of the world one of the reasons why the United States has all the big tech companies because back in the 90s they made a decision hey let's

not crush this internet thing let's actually open up the doors for it it could be could be something big and we should probably be the leaders of whatever that's going to be and you've seen them do that with AI now but they got it really wrong on crypto and that's partially because of the banks and stuff like this which are all now flipping on crypto anyway but the USA has a real strong potential to be an even bigger player than it has been because the USA has been a very very big crypto player in a whole variety of ways but it's been constantly stifled by these terrible regulations we've seen coming out especially over the last four years during the Biden admin ation when they literally rolled out operation choke point 2.0 that's not like a conspiracy

theory or something literally they were trying to strangle crypto to death by completely cutting off banking access putting pressure on banks to not work with crypto companies this all happened okay so that's going to be reversed we're going to see hopefully more positive legislation around Banking and stuff like that come through so that crypto companies can have more confidence working in the United States so that crypto developers cannot be Afra afraid to develop and write software In America which they basically have had to have been maybe Americans might even be allowed to get airdrops huh how about that literally the sec's been protecting investors from getting free money for testing software it's so dumb it's I don't even know where to start with it

and now they're arguing oh well nfts are actually uh Securities contracts like they're digital Collectibles dog what are you talking about this is crazy so this is all really good stuff this is a very positive thing I think we're going to see a lot of great regulations come out there's been some other stuff that's been floated I don't know how serious those proposals were he said stuff like well we'll make it so that when you spend your Bitcoin to buy something that won't be a taxable event we'll see if that comes about or not maybe I've seen proposals in the past it'll be something like for $500 or less for example so if you're out buying lunch but if you're going to buy I don't know a super yacht or something and have cash out millions of dollars profits maybe you know the government will tax that we shall see

right and also hey shout out um hopefully fulfills his promise to free Ross alri who's been who was one of the earliest Bitcoin Pioneers back in the day and uh has been in prison for a very long time for the crime of running a website so hopefully we'll see him get released as well the website named so road which milk Road was named after so uh shout out to uh our namesake uh for that one hopefully we'll be celebrating Ross coming home someday in the new year uh let's look at who who else won or lost yesterday because it's not just Trump who has won the presidency there is also uh the Senate versus the house

and there is a lot of Representatives politicians that were up for re-election that were either very Pro crypto or very anti- crypto let's take a look if we look at uh the live tractor from uh coinbase built this uh from Stand with crypto.com which is a great website you guys should check that out um there's a live update that shows that in the House of Representatives we have 257 Pro crypto candidates that have been elected and 115 anti- crypto candidates elected so we're doing pretty well in the house and then in the Senate 16 pro- crypto candidates elected and 12 anti- crypto candidates elected so closer in the

Senate but that makes sense the Senate is a much smaller uh piece of the puzzle here um what do you see when you look we can look down here and see there are a few very anti- crypto people that are now out one of them in Ohio where sherid Brown Lost uh to Bernie Moreno who is much more of a pro crypto uh person which is great to see so we have we have some real movement now obviously Elizabeth Warren who is maybe possibly the most anti- crypto person that there politician that there could be she did win she is back so we do we do have some some negative crypto people that are

going to still be around um but when you look at this what do you think of who how else the night shook out last night look I think overall it's a very very positive result for the crypto industry and you have to remember there's been an incredible effort from a a wide variety of people um really pushing for getting Pro crypto candidates elected there's been a huge amount of crypto pack money that came into this election it was one of the biggest donors actually the crypto industry in America because it's been so strangled and so screwed for so long that the crypto industry finally came together led by coinbase and other major exchanges and big players and big whales in the market saying enough's enough we're gonna play the game we're gonna buy the politicians we're gonna we

know how the game works give the campaign contributions right you get the money involved in the politics and we're going to get the right people elected people who are going to represent Common Sense views and not just represent the banking industry what it one in five Americans owns crypto or is it even bigger number these days I can't remember the exact number but it's a it's a shockingly large percentage of the electorate owns crypto and you have so many politicians like Elizabeth Warren working against that I mean who was she trying to appeal to I'm shocked she won her seat again I guess there's just enough I don't know old ladies in Massachusetts are like I just like Elizabeth waren she's just like me but I just don't get it you

know where were the young people get in there and get that lady out man she's literally coming after your bags come on guys come on come on put put the fortnite down go vote this lady out of office but that didn't happen so that's fine but it's good to see some of these really anti- crypto people getting knocked out uh shered Brown he was basically you know the the head Stormtrooper let's say for operation chokepoint 2.0 going out and trying to kill crypto friend Banks so good riddens yeah it's it's one thing is clear we have a more crypto-friendly Congress than we've ever had and crypto voters spoke decisively and I've got a tweet up

on the screen from Brian Armstrong saying exactly this that it was amazing to see how many Americans care about crypto and really want to see America be a strong player here and they voted accordingly and that is a very exciting time we've never had this type of Congress this type of political environment which I think that people don't really the average investor and the average retail investor doesn't realize how much regulation makes an impact on big businesses and the amount of innovation that it chokes out in the US it's it's in a weird way it's the perfect storm for the crypto industry right now because this new

Administration can be a major Catalyst for really cementing the future of America as what it should have always been a major crypto superpower and it has been a crypto superpower but it's had its hands tied behind its back the entire time where you see other countries smaller more agile countries like the UAE and Singapore completely outpacing USA on regulation but it shouldn't be like that USA should be the global leader in this industry and I think that they could definitely spent themselves once again in that area with this new stuff coming through can we just take a second too just to recognize the vast difference in what's just happened in terms of who was

elected right so the outgoing president President Biden has no idea what crypto is right no idea never used it doesn't understand it any of that kind of stuff whereas Trump who is also 78 look at the way he's talking look at the people he's putting around him right he went and bought what Burger and sodas for everybody using Bitcoin right yeah okay he had his Grandpa moment doing that fine but he did it he did it he sold nfts he owns ethereum and I know that's his team doing that but he said yes to it they came said hey there's this crypto thing and you can sell nfts and you can get ethereum and he did and they held the ethereum and they declared the ethereum on the tax returns and

stuff like that do you understand this significance of this the man who just became the President elect of the United States is into crypto he's used Bitcoin to buy stuff he's sold nfts he's launching his defi protocol and stuff like that like that's insane his vice president holds half million bucks worth of bitcoin right RFK Jr holds b a whole bunch of Bitcoin as well like we've got a bunch of bitcoiners who just took over the country essentially and this is really bullish for the future of the entire industry MH yeah it's true you can't underplay the vast difference in crypto experience and crypto knowledge

between Joe Biden and the next president Donald Trump and especially did you ever think we would say that a defi founder if you would call Trump that or an nft project founder would be a president it's insane hey can we just take a moment to recognize too Bitcoin started um 15 years ago 16 16 years ago white paper 15 years ago I think the Bitcoin the first Genesis block was m is January 2009 I think and um imagine how far we've come in that time just really think about it we've gone from literally just Satoshi in a small mailing list few people you know halum running Bitcoin fantastic to now it became a

major political issue in America with hundreds of millions of dollars of pack money of getting Pro crypto people elected black Rocky ETFs the president his administration it's become a major political issue at the highest levels the US government not like okay when little governments do it you can say okay they're innovators sou Salvador is an innovator and they have to innovate with new technology to try to stay competitive this is America man the freaking president of America okay the Vice President of America a lot of people who are going to be in his cabinet the this is insane how fast this industry has matured to become a major global technological player it's wild to see how did you react with your

portfolio to this news I'm curious have you made any changes to your portfolio were you buying last night and this morning what do you and what do you expect to happen in the short term not so much the long term because or the medium term because nobody knows but in this next weeks few weeks end of this year yep so I haven't made any major changes to my portfolio overall add a little more Bitcoin um a few days ago nothing crazy but some more Bitcoin uh we got nailed a pretty nice trade on a dog with hat so I'm pretty happy about that uh but nothing too crazy nothing out of the ordinary right I'm already pretty balls to the wall in my crypto portfolio so there's not really a lot of

room to like okay we're going to make a big change here um but I think over the next let's say to the end of the year um we've got a lot of bullish conditions setting up for the market here here so we've got of course rates continuing to come down um I know we've had some struggles with you know the Manufacturing Index we've had some struggles with you know job reports and stuff like that but markets are looking pretty solid markets are anticipating that there's going to be some pretty positive Tailwinds coming in from a trump presidency when he gets inaugurated in January so between now and then in particular we could see some really good narratives form up some really good price action form up in the

markets and basically to look back historically the price of Bitcoin about a week before the election for every Bitcoin cycle we've had in election so far the price of Bitcoin about the week before the election is never Revisited again which is pretty crazy to think about now will that happen again I have no idea who knows right but it's an interesting little fact factoid to keep in mind there so we're probably going to see markets continue to Rally into the end of the year because why wouldn't they rates are getting cut you have a a pro business pro crypto candidate coming in who's probably going to lower the price of energy and stuff like that and and get people excited about markets of course markets already raging people are say oh

Market the stock markets are so overvalued you know new super armor getting any second now 1929 you know there's probably going to be a reckoning at some point but not quite yet not quite yet and maybe we get a market top in March or April of 150k 200k BTC and if that happens I am you know if I see those kind of numbers on BTC I am selling things down pretty aggressively you know I'll keep my Bitcoin I'll keep my stable coins but everything else on the Cho and block man because you just don't know how much longer the cycle will last and historically speaking when you break out beyond the previous highs with some definitive move

really we can look at March as a bit of fugazi we yeah we got 74k which is $5,000 over the previous all-time highs and we were there for a couple days but you know it wasn't really this strong convincing breakout move which tends to come post Bitcoin having and we've had Bitcoin ETFs buying the equivalent of an entire month of minor production in a single day that's happened multiple times in the last month that's the post Bitcoin having reality where you see demand vastly outstripping the ability of new Supply to enter the market that happens about 16 months post Bitcoin about six months post Bitcoin having prices start to take off and last cycle we saw basically that happened and we

saw prices go from basically around november-ish to April uh and price went up almost 200% during that time and that was essentially the peak of the market or you could have sold in April when the P Cycle top indicator topped out walked away and not thought about it you didn't need to ride the second wave up to 69k okay unless you really you know had some desire to do that you could have walked away and been pretty happy so we're talking a lot about Bitcoin and obviously the setup as you mentioned is is incredible right now it's we've been talking about how good the setup is for for months liquidity interest rates now we have a president

that is a pro crypto candidate Pro crypto president everything is looking so good uh What about everything else though so bitcoin's looking good everybody feels good about Bitcoin do you think that we get more flowing towards altcoins and I mean I hate to use the term altcoins but basically everything that's not Bitcoin of course at some point it always happens money will seek bigger returns elsewhere especially from the old Bitcoin whales now look black rock and and Co it'll be interesting to see how exactly they play the cycle are they just staking a land grab and they're just going to hold for decades and stuff like this it's very possible although I imagine when we start seeing 150 or 200k

Bitcoin we're going to see billion doll outflow days as institutions and other funds start to take massive profits from their Bitcoin ETF Investments but I think a lot of that will hold probably long term through the volatility we'll see how it plays out of course but altcoins will get their bid because when you start seeing those crazy valuations on bitcoin altcoins catch up right B Bitcoin whales they take profit profits right they see 150k Bitcoin they're going to take profits they're going to roll that down to the next thing try to double their money again so on so forth and you'll see the Cascade of money flow down through the cycle and of course late participants showing up you know retail coming in they're going to come in and go well Bitcoin so expensive I'm gonna go buy this dogcoin or I'm hey

someone said chain Link's really cool or whatever and they're going to go buy those things so we will see a lot of these altcoins getting bids but obviously as we always like to point out a lot of these coins are not going to reach new all-time highs previous cycle coins are not going to reach new alltime highs focus on those shiny new coins meme coins will continue to be very popular because they're just simple there's no nothing to understand I like a frog picture I like the dog picture price will go up that's simple for people right and bitcoin's got a simple narrative digital gold right other things not always so clear what their narratives might be and they're doing too much and the Tech's really good but you got to be a bit nerdy to understand that nerdy doesn't always sell well to the retail crowd who might just like

putting a hat on the dog right it's uh it's amazing how much Simplicity always wins uh any any other things that you're watching any final thoughts to share with us uh I know uh oh actually you know what I got to ask aote quickly Lark is I've got to ask you about this story that you tweeted about uh because it's just so funny not to share it h is one of the biggest winners from last night's election uh was somebody who made 21 million in profit on poly Market what happened here it's just crazy we saw billions on on the line here I poly Market has been such a wildly successful application built on polygon Which polygon is not

getting any Love by the way but built on polygon it's been incredible to see the money flowing into poly market and yeah there were some big Winners there were some huge like multi-million even you decam million doll bets that came in pretty last minute for Trump so pretty fantastic to see him these guys some of the I mean man it's again it's the Super Bowl man it's the Super Bowl politics essentially and people love sports betting and this is just political betting and um it's yeah it's been incredible to see though and it's been very interesting to see throughout the cycle really how responsive poly Market has been to the election cycle to the polling and to

gaffs made by one candidate or the other or bad interviews and stuff like this it's been very responsive in a in a much more honest way than the media of course media is terrible beyond belief we all hate the mainstream media in fact if you if you don't hate it enough you probably should just hate it more because it's absolutely garbage and terrible however one thing is very interesting is that when you look at Poly Market why poly Market to some kind of extent there's a bit of gaming of the system right but there's billions on the line here you can only game the system so much you're putting real skin in the game right and that's I think important thing to keep mind here real money real skin in the game whereas yeah you can just get on CNN or MSNBC or whatever and just say

words just words about whatever you want and there's no implication for that whereas if you're actually putting $10 million on the line you got some real insight and narrative and thesis behind what you're doing and all the markets were right which is very interesting yeah it's it's amazing to see the use case of prediction markets really establish themselves during this election what will be interesting to watch will be how poly Market performs post election when so much of their volume of bets was really tied to the election so is there going to be a fit beyond the election we'll see uh Lark final thoughts to share with our audience before we let

you go today just I just reminded me that there used to be and we don't condone of course any sort of animal exploitation obviously but there used to be like um hamster races and like scorpion fights and stuff that were basically earlier iterations of these uh prediction Market um applications it's pretty dark though pretty dark guys we we got better thing we don't we don't need to have like animals fighting to the death for uh for online betting I'm sure we can find other things to do politics is better okay don't find yourself saying that very often but politics is better guys really anyway no fin final thought okay it's very exciting day and um I think it's an exciting time for America and I really hope that we see

some really positive catalysts coming out of this and that it's not just talk and that we see real positive action actually happening in America because America should be the global leader in the cryptocurrency market and I hope that this new Administration will make them exactly that fantastic all sounds good Lark thank you so much for joining us today everybody listening in I hope you are feeling as bullish as we are comment with a bullish on YouTube wherever you're listening if you know if you're feeling the bullish Vibes Vibes Vibes Vibes all the way here at milk Road have a wicked awesome day everybody to the Moon as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us so you don't miss out

on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free 5 minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one resource to help you invest successfully in crypto one final note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day