Staking chat, Free USDC transfers on Polygon & more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #594 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone welcome to another episode of The Daily gray review where he kept the latest news in ethereum ecosystem I'm your host and this is honor and has the 31st of May 2023 alright everyone let's get into it so apologies for missing yesterday's episode everyone uh unfortunately it seems like I'll only be doing four episodes a week uh that's what the universe has in store for me but anyway I'm gonna try to do a full week again next week but there is a bunch of stuff to go through so let's jump right into it so Tom Wan here uh mentioned that the ethereum's limit on daily activation slash execute has increased from eight to nine uh validators per Epoch so a maximum amount of 2025 validators can be entered uh every day up from 1800 uh thanks to the increasing number of

active validators now I've talked about this before basically as we hit certain points uh in the number of active validators it means that we increase the amount of validators that can be activated per day which is which is obviously very very awesome because it means uh longer sorry a lot longer shorter cues for everyone here now we currently have around 75 000 pending validators in the queue still so it's still going to take a little while for that queue to be or the entry queue to be cleared and hanabo uh here actually put haniabu I don't know how to say that sorry has actually put together a new website called validatorq.com which gives you a detailed breakdown of the queue of both the entry and execute and the wait time so currently there is 75 782 validators in the entry queue and

you'll have a wait time of 37 days and 10 hours to become an active validator if you were to spin up a validator today and then there's also historical validator cue charts and historical wait times which is very cool to see and historical validate account as well so you can see here that uh because the I guess like uh some of the um validators got got cleared and also the uh maximum amount that could be entered per day went up you can see it uh it kind of fell here in the historical wait time and the validated queue I mean has just been crazy this this only goes back to May 21st so 10 days now but it's kind of funny how it's really just being up only uh I guess like since withdrawals went live or just like since a a little little bit after withdrawals went live

there and you can also see the execute is just that zero like no one wants to exit ethereum staking and overall I consider this to be just so incredibly bullish and I've talked about this before but basically you have all of these people staking eth that are essentially staking it because they don't want to sell it right like you're not going to stake eat if you want to to sell it you're staking it because you want to earn a return on your Investments and you obviously believe in eth over the longer term now of course not everyone is like that obviously there are different ways to enter an exit staking you could be holding an LSD which you know St R8 whatever it is and you can sell that into the market and that may not necessarily show up as an as an exiting validator on um on the

beacon chain because you're just selling into a liquidity pool on the secondary market now of course there are Arbitrage opportunities depending on how out of sync the price gets with the fair value but still a lot of the time it's just going to be you know people selling into this secondary liquidity and validate is not exiting there but I think generally that's okay I think just if you look at really the amount of eight that's being staked it's being it's been up only and that's a lot of eth you know over 20 million eighth now that is stake that is earning that eighth denominator reward and that is kind of in it for the for the long term here and why it's it's bullish is because right now as I mentioned I guess uh not yesterday the day before yesterday's episode where I talk about the market sentiment a little

bit really what what kind of is happening is that time-based capitulation that I've spoken about before where essentially you've got the long-term investors in the ecosystem right now the short-term speculators are gone most of the tourists are gone pretty much actually I would say 99 of them are gone the one percent that are left so the tourists I mean they're by definition not really tourists but maybe they're just like speculative gamblers they're throwing money into things like meme coins right whereas the longer term investors they're just stacking if and there is a limit to how much eat they can stack per week because obviously they have a limited amount of money and I guess like a clear example of this or or a clear way of saying saying this is say that you're someone who gets paid once a week right you have a salary

coming in once a week and then you have a percentage of that that you allocate towards each maybe you use 10 of your salary every week to buy some eth well that's that's basically an effective cap because if there's no new investors coming in and the existing investors are just stacking eighth then there is an effective cap on how much eth could be bought uh realistically each week and Borton held as a long-term investment obviously there is volatility still in the markets because of the short-term speculators the scalpers the day Traders they're all there still and that's totally fine but there's obviously a lot less of them than there was back when the bull market was happening and this is what it basically happens and this is why it's time-based capitulation because we're at an equilibria now between supply and demand where essentially you have the demand there but it's only from

these longer term investors who are basically capped with how much they can buy given that they don't have unlimited money you know they can't just print more money to buy to buy buy eth I mean everyone which is they could of course but they have to wait to get paid or make money in some other kind of fashion right and then you you also have the the supply side of things which really is I mean the supply side that I I should say the sell side is pretty low as well right now because as I said like the tourists are gone a lot of the short-term Traders are gone so the volatility that you see is usually just people trying to trade uh I guess like derivatives and the derivatives market right now has more activity in it than the spot market so what that means is

that when you have spot uh following derivatives it's not exactly going to lead to any great price Discovery because derivatives is not not really where price Discovery happens for the longer term longer term price Discovery happens on the spot Market um and you have all that kind of playing out so there is an equilibria now eventually that equilibria hits a point where and especially during a time-based capitulation bear Market where essentially there we start going up you know the price starts going up slowly and slowly and then obviously as the price keeps going up more and more people could become interested they fomo in they buy maybe they were sitting on the sidelines with some cash and they're like you know what I'm not going to put this cash into eth right now I'm going to wait because I think it's going to go down and then it doesn't go down and

then it goes up to 2500 and then it goes up to 3 000 and then you know you start the fomo cycle again and then obviously the big bull market starts again so that's kind of how it usually plays out within a crypto I think just generally over the longer term across all markets you know I've been looking into a lot of other markets lately just out of curiosity doing a deeper dive into pretty much every Market that I can uh kind of uh that I can think of and it always is the same thing I mean there are obviously uh different types of markets where there is maybe a government government holds up a market more than one other market like the real estate market obviously is subsidized a lot by different government programs especially here in Australia there are a lot of government incentives and things

like that and it is obviously very very heavily affected by things like uh immigration and things like supply and demand obviously if there's not enough houses and lots of immigration you have the same Dynamic there but really over the longer term the markets really look the same right you buy or you want to be buying as I said on the episode the other day a when it's when it's quiet when people when it's like a hated thing right when it's like a hated asset class and people are like you know this is going to Nuke zero blah blah and then you want to be selling when there's just so much kind of craziness going on in the markets that it doesn't seem like it's going to sustain itself because you need more and more money as as time goes on to sustain that and I think bringing

it back to crypto this is especially true and this is this is what originally got me really interested in in how press as an individual and his thesis on things where he essentially talked about these flows where essentially the higher the price of eth and BTC go right because I mean this is pre-merge let's talk about pre-merge when it was on proof of work the higher the price of Ethan BTC went um obviously the miners are selling are still earning the same rewards if it's you know obviously every four years the Bitcoin Supply halves but during that four year period whether the USD price is a hundred dollars or or ten thousand dollars for BTC the miners would still be earning the same block award and what happens is that hundred dollars

obviously the the south side is a lot less than what it is at ten thousand dollars because if the miners are selling the same BTC I'll say amount of BTC there's more and more cell pressure and now you might be thinking well you know the price of BTC is going out that means the miners don't have to sell as much BTC for the same USD costs and like yes but the problem is or I guess like the not maybe not the problem but the reality is is that the price of uh uh sorry the costs go up because more and more miners join because hash rate follows price and this was true for ethereum as well now in a world where uh essentially uh you have that happening and the the and the USD price keeps going up it just leads to more and more

USD cell pressure and that means that there needs to be more buy pressure to offset that and eventually hits a point where that that's not happening anymore and we have those big crashes that we sought I think a lot of people forget that the blow-off top that we saw in May 2021 was incredibly brutal I mean I don't remember the what it was for BTC but for eth went from forty four hundred dollars to Seventeen hundred dollars in a week guys a week and that's because you know that's a big asset right that's not that I'm not talking about all the other assets if you look at the other assets they got crushed even more but eth went from 4400 to 1700 in a week it was so quick and so decisive because there was so much leverage built up there was so much um uh uh money needed

to maintain those price points and it just went crazy right we had a lot of liquidations happen a lot of people lost money a lot of people made money of course if they were well maybe not a lot of people made money some people made money uh but that's usually kind of what we see there now in a post-merge world why this is really bullish for eth is because yes okay obviously stakers are getting paid uh and a reward from the consensus layer and obviously execution layer stuff as well but when you look at just the consensus layout as the price goes up in US Dollars the costs for stakers don't go up it's not like mining where essentially you need to buy more and more miners to keep your share of of the network to make sure that you can um to keep up with everyone else obviously

if you want to add more validators you can but your costs as a stake are are very very low your electricity costs are negligible your maintenance cost your Hardware costs are negligible compared to underproof of work and obviously ethereum's issuance is a lot less than it was on the proof of work it's 90 less and then we have the burn offsetting that as well so what do you think happens when the USD price of eth keeps going up and we don't have that kind of same cell pressure that we did under proof of work the the flows are going to be in Eve's favor and this is why I'm so bullish on eth against other assets in particular not just US dollars but against assets like BTC and why I still believe that flipping is inevitable because it is just not going to have that cell pressure that other things

have and you may be thinking okay well there are other proof of State coins out there and there are other other coins out there that uh that don't have uh that are on on proof of work at all they're app layer coins it's like okay yes but they have other sources of massive cell pressure so for example a lot of the the um the I guess like non-networks like the apps and and other such things they have massive uh amounts of tokens that belong to insiders that belong to the uh the you know the um the investors and the team um and those uh unlocking over time and they add extra cell pressure and stuff like that so I guess during this cycle for everything that's vested out here I'm not saying the prices aren't going to go up but that's that's the source of

cell pressure for that whereas with either it just has a lot less source of cell pressure than these other things do and that's just one reason why I believe eth is going to outperform pretty much everything over the long term and I mean it kind of has um there's there's a few notable exceptions to that but picking those exceptions is really hard as well so yeah a little bit of a bullish rant there but I think something that's going to play out definitely uh in a big way when demand comes back and as I've said before I will tell you guys when I think that the the bull market has returned in Earnest and I'm probably going to be late to that but really what I'm kind of looking for to to declare a new bull market is when it's it's kind of obvious uh and and it may not be obvious to

people that haven't been around for that long but for me it becomes obvious and I can give like a rough kind of view of what I mean here if we get to like a three thousand dollar eighth and we hold that price level for a little while then it becomes obvious to me because we can go to three thousand dollars and easily go back to like 1500 a that can easily happen and you may not believe it can but it can now if we go to three thousand dollars and maybe we stay there for like three thousand or more and we stay there for like a week or a month I mean a week probably not long enough but like a month or a couple months or three months then you kind of think yourself okay well there isn't enough people wanting to sell to get us back below

three thousand this must be a new bull market and then you actually you won't just feel it in the East price but you'll feel it as an ecosystem you'll see a lot of other things start to go up you'll feel that new people coming into the ecosystem crypto Twitter will come alive again like there'll be all these signals that follow the price here that will convince you that it is a new bull market and that's when I would I would kind of give give you my guys my view is when that all happened but we're nowhere near that right now right now we're in that time-based capitulation it's just long-term investors stacking AIDS stacking other things that they believe in as time goes on and I think that's going to be what this year is and honestly I haven't even mentioned the macro environment or like stocks or

outside of crypto environment even once because as I've maintained for a long time I don't think that has a big impact on crypto at all I really do think crypto definitely still follows its own kind of cycle I know people will say well last year was really bad for stocks and and crypto and it was kind of the same thing it's like okay yeah fair enough but at the same time crypto had a really brutal time in 2018 and 2019 and Stocks by comparison didn't really if you if you look back and same with um other times that kryptos have had their own bear market so I think that obviously uh you can draw kind of correlation CR but generally I I don't think there's that much overlap yet uh between the two kind of markets there will be more as time goes on because as

the asset class becomes more institutionalized and all that sorts of stuff there will be more and more overlap but I think for now crypto is doing its own thing still I think that next year is probably going to be a a positive year this year feels a lot like 2019 to me in terms of what the market is just doing maybe a more muted version of 2019 uh because in 2019 if you recall eighth went from like 880 to 360 uh which is like a wife over a 4X or 4.5 x or something like that whereas this time around 8th has gone from 880 to 2200 so it's like a two two and a half X at most and then it's kind of hung around here so the volatility obviously is less but I think that's due to its market cap being a lot bigger but also uh eth

didn't have that Ponzi fueling at the plus token ponzer you can Google what that is that was filling both Ethan BTC so we're yeah I think generally this year is just going to be a lot of sideways in that well-defined range maybe it goes back to the low 1000s I don't know there are a few people thinking that's going to happen because they want they think the market needs to test that area I I don't know but my kind of defined range for each for this year is between a thousand and 2500 that is like the defined rate I know it's a big range but that is the range that I think that he's going around in for the the majority if not all of this year and then next year I think we're going to see more more kind of movement and more positivity because really a lot of the

the Duma the Duma stuff that has been said about everything has not really materialized and the longer that it doesn't materialize the more the overall sentiment changes and the more the Bears capitulate because there are still a lot of bears thinking that it's going to go to like 400 or 500 and that BTC is going to go like sub 10K you need to wait for those kinds of people to capitulate and and them to be like okay well it's not going there you know I've changed my view here are and they start buying and then the price naturally starts going up and more people get get excited and the firmware starts and then we get the bull market again so anyway I spent a good 15 minutes on that but that was kind of the interesting topic that I wanted to talk about today that I mentioned in the

Discord Channel and there's one other one that I'll talk about at the end as well but yeah hopefully that gives you some context around how I think about these things why I've always maintained that I'm a long-term guy and why being a long-term person is so much better than being a short-term person it's just it's so much more fun uh and it also leads to much better outcomes both socially and financially uh but it is a learned skill it's not something it's not something that can be taught I don't think like as much as I I'm saying these things to you guys I think you have your own experiences that you learn from and at the end of the day I can tell you as much you know these things as much as uh as much as I can but it's up to you whether you want to heed my my they're

not advice but like what I say or not and I think the the funny thing you just last thing here on this note is that I was thinking about this the other day or maybe a few weeks ago now where I said to myself imagine if you had someone who could actually see into the future and and everyone knew that someone could see into the future because they had 100 hit rate they told you each each day or what the price of uh of eth or any asset was going to be at this state this day whatever and let's say they could see out into the future and they and it's been tried and tested and they've been able to predict the price with 100 accuracy um so they could literally see the future there would still be people a lot of people who would not believe that

they would still doubt that they would still say well no that's wrong uh what if they're wrong this time even if they had 100 hit rate they would still doubt it and that just speaks to the fact that uh that investing is a learned skilled is not something that can be taught because there is always going to be people who doubt what you say doubt your opinion on things even if you could tell the future even if you had 100 hit rate that would still doubt you because then they would think to themselves what if he's wrong this time right and that's fair enough because you can have 100 hit rate and you can literally see the future and then what happens if you get something wrong because you can no longer see the future or what happens if you just lie right so that's actually

healthy but again that speaks to why it's a learned skill you have to trust yourself you can't really trust anyone else to tell you where the Market's going to go or what's going to happen here and all these people who do threads on Twitter are telling you what the Market's going to do I can I can bring up some threads that are absolute garbage there was one from I believe the beginning of last year that went through all these assets that they thought were gonna go nuts and they all nuked during during last year obviously so I think that listening to yourself uh from experience is probably the best way of of going about it there but anyway going to end that one there a bunch of other stuff to get through so uh Beacon chain has a new service or a new kind of page

on their website which shows you which staking Services I currently have a super majority or are currently running a super majority client so you can see here that uh different Services I mean there's plenty of different Services here are being labeled and what their you using so the eighth pool and ether mine staking are not using a super majority client which is pretty cool to see but the vast majority still are rockapaw isn't which is which is great as well but an intestine isn't either but the vast majority are now so what is a super majority client well basically it means that you're running an execution layer or consensus layout client that has more than 66 of the network now of course on the consensus layer side no um no uh uh client has a super majority right now but on the

execution layer side of things according to some data sources out there Geth has more than 66 of the network share so they have a super majority client and that's what the these uh services will be running they'd be running Geth yeah so this is a great way to monitor I would hope to see most of these in the green eventually but it's a great way to Monitor and see which ones are in the green and which ones are not uh so you can check this out I'll link this in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right last thing on staking Jasper from the rockapole community has highlighted that the first 10 000 plus arith mint was just processed without a hitch when rockapool launched the Mac Max deposit uh possible was only 2K eighth all Wales treasuries and protocols and dowels now need to heed

this call uh rocketball is ready don't settle for permission staking so yeah if you are a whale you can now basically deposit through rockapool uh with 10 000 plus ethia and you can actually see the deposit pool at rocketscan.io deposit pool to see how full it is uh and and and uh what what the kind of uh pull is like what the state of the pool is like I should say and I'll wait for this website to to load here but but yeah as Jasper says there is no excuse really there's no need to go with these bigger staking providers unless you're like a mega whale but then at that point like a mega whale to me is like someone who has hundreds of thousands of eth or I guess a group of people that have hundreds of thousands of eighth like there's there's no reason for you to go uh if you have

less than ten thousand eight or something like that for you to go with the permissions platform you can go with rocketball you can go with other decentralized taking providers if you have hundreds of thousands of each honestly at that point you should just be setting up your own thing you shouldn't be going with any of these Services uh because if you if for yourself for your own kind of Peace of Mind here you should be setting up your own staking service staking operation or if you don't trust yourself to do that then you should be you could be Outsourcing it but Outsourcing it to a player that is not dominant player so you wouldn't be Outsourcing it to someone like like Lido um you wouldn't be Outsourcing it to a centralized exchange like coinbase or buy nets already has a big market share you'll be maybe going towards the the

smaller market shares and rocketball could still be a solution for you as well maybe you want to stake a little bit with them and a little bit with someone else a little bit there here and there but yeah if you have hundreds of thousands of each definitely definitely uh be a lot more careful with who you stake with and rocketball is obviously a great choice for you as well um that you could do some with rocketpool some with another service here but yeah just great to see this this growth yeah you can monitor this for yourself at the Rockets game website rocketscan.io depositpool I'll link that in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right so another eip4844 implementer's core that is summarized by Terence here as usual uh the three big topics that were covered are two of them have to do with more technical details

that may not be of interest to most of you but the third thing was the devnet 6 scope and testing update so that's the thing that we're all looking for devnet6 planning uh so the update on that is that they reviewed the remaining PRS or pull requests unblocking devnet devnet6 with adding new uh the uh the new PR's the new change will apply to all of the specs and the general consensus is to include data gas used for devnet6 and have another 4844 devnet before moving on to test net so uh and then lastly Mario Mario went over the executions uh PEX test and Hive test work so yeah we're getting very close to devnet6 it seems like and we may only get one more devnet after that devnet seven potentially devonet eight before we move

on to test Nets now these will be more private test Nets or short-lived test Nets and then obviously moving on to the Long Live testing Nets and then going to mainnet so I'm still pretty confident we're getting 4844 by the end of the year which is going to be a huge Boon I was actually talking in the Discord Channel today about uh something that I'm actually going to cover in a sec uh I'm actually going to cover this so I'm not going to mention what I was talking about in regards to this just yet uh but you can read the 4844 thread for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below but actually I think this is a perfect segue into uh what coinbase wallet announced today was that they introduced gas free usdc sends on on the coinbase wallets uh on the polygon POS chain so why this is big and

why this is a big deal now this is related to 4844 is that coinbase is going to be launching base probably post 4844 I think that's what they're going to wait for I think they're potentially going to wait for 4844 to go live on the network because Jesse who is heavily involved or basically leads the base project at coinbase is heavily involved in erp4844 work and development and and kind of stewarding that along there so I think that base will launch after 4844 goes live and will probably have native support for 4844 which means fees will be extremely cheap on their Network generally but then I think that what they're going to do is that they're going to enable free usdc sends on base because if they're doing it on the

polygon POS chain which is actually more expensive and will be definitely more expensive than than bass and any of the l2s post 4844 then they can afford to do it on base because as I said before when they first launched base they're going to be the only ones running a sequencer so they're the only ones paying for both the L1 fees and the infrastructure or the sequencer fees and it's going to be negligible so they're going to be able to capture an absolutely massive amount of network share uh by doing free usdc transfers on their base network not to mention all the other BD that I'm sure they're going to do around it so that is going to be huge guys I actually think people are underestimating how big that's going to be and how big of a deal that's going to be for getting not just

people that already use on chain products into using L2 choose that people that have never touched on chain products before the coinbase user base and the coinbase wallet user base they're going to be getting their first experience with unchain stuff using bass and it's going to be an L2 on ethereum and they're going to be able to interact with the entire ethereum ecosystem which in my mind is incredibly incredibly bullish and I just can't wait to see how that all plays out but I am very very confident that they're going to be doing gas free usdc sends on their base Network because if they're doing it on the polygon POS chain which is costing them more to do it they're going to be doing it on the uh their base Network and I reckon that's going to be a permanent thing I I don't think they're

gonna uh they're gonna change that because at the end of the day for them adoption of both usdc and bass is way more important than the little bit of money that they would say by not making them free here now of course there has to be some kind of way to do it in a in a way that's that it's not game then it doesn't end up costing them a lot because people are just spamming the network and I'm sure they've thought of that and and will Implement controls around that but yeah this is actually pretty cool pretty amazing and I I absolutely love that they've done this and I I love that this basically sends a signal that there is uh I mean it wouldn't be 100 chance but I'm very confident that it's like 99 chance that they're going to do the same thing on

the base Network once it goes live all right so uh Chris here from scroll has a great thread and article around those finality events or I guess lots of finality events that happened on the ethereum beacon chain on May 11th and May 12th so you can go check out the blog post and throw for yourself but as I said it is is great it actually breaks down exactly what happened uh the implications of it lessons learned all those sorts of stuff and it is quite a an easy read it's not a Long blog post not a long thread either as I said highly recommend checking out this out and giving it a read because it Recaps things better than I can it Recaps things better than I think that most people did honestly um besides maybe the the actual post-mortem from from the prylabs team themselves

this is just a great breakdown a great overall uh kind of summary of what happened and the implications and the lessons learned so I'll link this in the YouTube description below for you to check out all right hop protocol has announced that arith bridging or rocketpool east bridging is Now supported on ethereum optimism and arbitrim this is the first cross-chain Bridge supported for any liquid staking token this is really really awesome because obviously there is a big issue with people wanting to buy arith and they've only been able to really do it on um on layer one and they haven't been able to to really easily bridge between the layer twos and and layer one here so uh thanks to the combined effort of rocketpool and hop communities the re pool has been

incentivized with rpr rewards and an R8 bonder has been set up for this bridge here so you can get on board and stake your re on optimism and arbitrim today to start accruing RPL on top of the amm trading fees and the TBL uh right now obviously is is going to be a little bit low I I believe I haven't looked at it what it is but in this screenshot it was it was a little bit low but given that that it's incentivized given that this is something that the communities have worked on collectively I think that liquidity and that TBR is going to get a lot better and it's going to make bridging between these different chains a lot easier and a lot smoother which is going to lead to more adoption or more overall adoption for rocker pool 8th and obviously rocker pull as a network so

you can go check this out for yourself if you have R8 that's just sitting there doing nothing this may be something that you're interested in uh in providing liquidity too so I'll link this in the YouTube description below for you to check out all right finally here is is something funny that I wanted to talk about maybe something a little bit controversial so we've all seen that this ben.eath person on Twitter has issued these mean coins and has been able to raise uh or at least get like make a lot of money I think that they've raised more than uh 18 million dollars or or more than 20 million dollars over the last few weeks which is just crazy but this tweet here basically says that the ethereum Ico only raised 18.3 million dollars back in

2014. so it is kind of wild to see that one random grifter on in crypto can raise more than what the ethereum Ico raised now obviously this speaks to the fact that the ecosystem is just like a thousand times bigger than it was back when the ethereum Ico happened and ethereum uh and we've seen a lot of other projects raise uh random amounts of money like this or much more money than this obviously we saw big Ico raises in 2017 and since then we've seen a lot of big VC or Insider razors as well but what I wanted to talk about is that I think that the the sad thing is is that the more I guess like scams and grips that we see in crypto I I guess like it's a it's a sign of like how much growth there is and how much money there

is in the ecosystem and I think it can be a sign or I guess like a top signal sign for in a bull market because in a bull market and especially towards the end we see we see a lot of random stuff a lot of scams a lot of griffs just pumping for no reason we see a lot of stupid stuff raising money a lot of uh things especially last bull market it was nfts a lot of just stupid nfts going nuts and like people were just paying enormous amounts of money for these things I'm not talking about the nfts that people consider to be blue chips like the board apes and the punks and stuff like that I'm talking about those random 10 000 profile picture nfts that no one wanted no one asked for that were just absolute trash that look like trash

that people were throwing money at because there was just so much money going around that they thought they could make a buck on it right they thought they could would turn a profit on it and those kind of things for me at least are like the topiest of top signals when that kind of stuff's happening I'm like you know what because people are just indiscriminately throwing their money at Absolute crap it means that there's a lot of money being taken out of the ecosystem because the smart players right now are taking profit and eventually their profit taking is going to exceed the amount of new money coming into the ecosystem in the amount of dumb money that's left to just throw out these random kind of coins or mean coins or NF or or nfts I guess that it's going to lead to a nuke and that's exactly what we saw uh

we saw it in May 2021 and then we saw it at the end of 2021 and then obviously since then we've seen a lot of Fallout a lot of things blowing up a lot of daisy chain leverage and stuff like that so I think that this tweet just just had me thinking about uh and wanting to talk about the fact that when you start seeing that kind of crazy stuff happening it might be good to start thinking about taking some profits and I know it becomes very hard because you start seeing people say oh it's a new paradigm this is going to continue forever you know such and such is going to this price or this is going to this Price look at this look at this chart look at this ta at the end of the day it all ends the same every single time it

ends the same way just like it begins the same way just as I spoke about at the beginning of the episode that bull markets begin the same way uh as they uh uh the same way every time bear Mark or bull markets end the same way every time bear markets start the same way same way every time things get overheated things get over inflated people get stupid with things uh the new money stops coming in or too many people get wrapped that they they pull out their money and then we see those big crashes that happen and then all the daisy chain stuff from there because everything is connected at the end of the day like if you wanted to pinpoint the basically the start of the contagion that led to both the ball and bear Market I think you can actually or at least led to a lot of the bull market

and a lot of the bear Market uh blowing up the certain players you can actually point to gbtc and ethi Grails grayscale's products because there were closed-ended products because they led to a lot of um a lot of buying from bigger players that couldn't exit and they leveraged that and they leverage that on leverage and then obviously we had the FTX stuff that happened and we had 3ac we had Terra like you can actually go back and point to that as the source of both potentially the beginning of the bull market and the ending of the bull market and the contagion that that kind of happened from from there so there is always going to be that stuff happening it's just the the Learned skill is spotting it and they're not just spotting it and realizing that it's happening but beginning to act on it and acting on it

and investing is obviously taking profits and making sure that you don't get swept up in in the in the crazy Mania because at the end of the day you can take profits and then still uh get fomo because maybe the price keeps going up like for example I know a lot of people that took profits at two thousand dollar each when it first went to go went to 2K and then obviously it went a lot higher than that and they're like oh you know uh I I shouldn't have sold that I shouldn't have sold that but a lot of them especially the the people that have been in it for for a long time didn't regret it they're like I know the price is going to potentially go higher but I don't care I'm taking profits now I can't time stops tops and bottoms I'm

dcaing out just like I decide in and that's the way I'm going to do it and that's that's what I'm sticking to and sticking to your plan is pretty much the hardest thing to do because everyone has a plan right and then they get punched in the face and that's what happens in the bull market you have a plan you have a plan you formulated in a bear market and the bull market punches you in the face and causes you to get confused you're like is it really a new paradigm should I sell here is it going to go higher and then you don't end up selling and then you end up holding it through a bear market and you end up coping and there's a lot of people who I can clearly tell when they're coping because uh or coping because of them not you

know taking profits or them being underwater on their bags because they get really aggressive really really quickly when you start telling them that what they've invested in is actually trash because they don't want to hear that they want to hear that what they invested in is going to go back to the price that they invested in at and they're going to be able to exit at break even and maybe even a profit so so yeah anyway I've spoken about the markets and investing a lot today but I just figured it was something worth talking about because it is very relevant especially during the time-based capitulation phase of the bear market and something that I think a lot of you guys are pretty interested in generally but anyway on that though that's going to be it for two days thank everyone for listening and watching be

sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give it a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the Disco Channel and I'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone [Music]