The setup for a Q4 Bitcoin rally, with David Duong

Transcript

Do you think Bitcoin is going to be over or under 100K by the end of this year? Or after months of near zero volatility, Bitcoin has finally broken out above 72K. Ethereum is up over 20%. I can't believe it. You can't believe it. Is this the start of a new bull market or are we going to see this rally fade into the fall? Hello and welcome to the Milkro Show, the podcast that knows that nothing says crypto is back like a $3 billion short squeeze on Bitcoin. I'm your host, John Gillan. Today is Thursday, August 20th, and today we are joined by David Dwong. David is the former head of institutional research for Coinbase, one of the best analysts in all of crypto, and a longtime friend of this show, Milk Road. So, if you are excited for this conversation today, make sure you like and subscribe. We're

going to talk Bitcoin, we're going to talk macro, we're going to talk about everything. A reminder, our podcast today is free, and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at saber.money, the stable coin payments platform built for Asia. So, keep an ear out for more information about them later in the episode. But for now, David, welcome back to the Milkro Show. How are you? >> I'm good, thanks, John. >> I'm really excited to have you on the show today. You have a wealth of knowledge about crypto and you're a great guy to talk to on a day like today. Uh the whole market cap of crypto is up about 10% in a single day. Like I said, Bitcoin's over 72K. Ethereum is pushing 2400. Salana is in like the mid 80s. It just the whole market is is has blown up today. Is this a sign that we

are back in a full crypto bull market or do you think that there's reason to doubt that this rally is going to hold here? >> So, I am optimistic like for the last eight or nine months or so, I've been pretty bearish on what's happening in crypto and the altcoin market didn't have any life to it. Bitcoin kind of either tracked lower or sideways and it just wasn't really going where. There wasn't a lot of for a lot of traders to kind of capitalize on. I think things are changing. Uh this is probably the first kind of sign that, you know, after a lot of sideways action, we're finally ready to actually move higher in Bitcoin. I said this on a different podcast, but I was bullish. I think like, you know, we we were having this spirited debate uh with someone with

another panelist where, you know, they thought that this is just going to keep moving weaker uh for the next, you know, three months, 6 months, adanum, whatever. And I don't think that's going to be the case. Certainly it feels like markets already like all the sellers that wanted to sell Bitcoin had already kind of you know been in there. Um so there's a lot of seller exhaustion I think in the market but that's not what led to this breakout right I think the breakout that we saw more recently has to do with the short squeeze that you kind of referred to. The fact is like we had a few narratives kind of going on.

You had like Bessant you know doing this like double the size of the buyback which hasn't started yet by the It's not going to start until like early September. But you also have like the meeting at the White House where I think there was some rumors going around which I don't think have been substantiated yet. Uh but some that suggested that you know the government was going to step in and buy Bitcoin. I I feel like it was stuff like that that kind of contributed this move. So it's hard to say that people have fully re-engaged in this rather than the fact that you know this is just kind of a a squeeze. I don't think it's I do think it's meaningful rather um but you know I think we need to be cautious about how sustainable this is going to be but I do think that

the optimism should like I rather I think Bitcoin should start to rally or really kind of sustain a rally probably towards the end of this quarter or the beginning of Q4 like I I really think that's the good timeline especially after we see what happens in Jackson Hole. >> Okay. So there's a lot of time that could pass between now and that, you know, that start of Q4 target that you set there. In between now and then, are you expecting sort of like the bottom to fall out and get like a another huge correction or do you think we sort of like chop between now and then? Like I I know this is a little bit like a a hard question to answer, but I think a lot of people are wondering if we're going to get that final, you know, bare market ending like capitulation candle on

Bitcoin or if it really is a sign that we've put in a bottom and we're going to keep chopping but chopping higher overall. What are your thoughts on that? >> Yeah, I think we've already seen the bottom. Uh, you know, I think the bottom was somewhere between that 55 to 60 kind of level. And you know, I I hear the same thing you do, like a lot of analysts calling for this one more wash out. And you know, frankly, when you start to see what we're seeing right now, which is like structural buyers come in, like ETF inflows coming back, uh, you know, like some of that capitulation already happened, I think that was what we saw from X strategy, for example. Frankly, for me, it was more of a sign of resilience. the fact that, you know, you saw Bitcoin selling coming from Michael Sailor and it was

still either holding flat or doing even a little bit better. Um, so I'm less concerned about this kind of like mystical final dump and I'm more focused on whether the buyers that showed up with the last two days are actually going to stay in the market. So I think capitulation is just a story that we tell ourselves after the fact. But the signal is telling me that those four sellers have definitely run out and I think the flows are going to start turning positive consistently over the next 6 to 8 weeks. If you are not already a Milk Road Pro member, now is the time. On August 26th, the price of Milk Road Pro is going up. Monthly goes from 25 bucks a month to 39 bucks a month and annual goes from 250 to 299.

And here's why. Milk Road Pro used to just be one paid newsletter and one portfolio. Now, it is a complete platform. There's proprietary analysis and a full panel of five analysts, each with their own portfolio, their own research, their own trades, and you get full access to it in real time. This is going to have all the information and notifications you need to stay up to date up to the minute with their research and with their moves in the market. And the results have been insane. Melvin's portfolio alone launched in February. It's up over 45% since. If you'd put 10 grand in behind his moves, you'd be sitting on over four grand of gains today. Five months of Milk Road Pro costs just $125 over that same period of time. The ROI on that investment speaks for itself. If you join before midnight on August 25th, you

keep today's prices locked in for as long as you are a member and we hope you will stay a member because we love our community. Uh but that's it. After that, it's gone. So get in on this today. Lock in this price on Milk Road Pro. Link is in the description. I'll see you there. Is there a price catalyst for Bitcoin or for crypto overall that you're kind of like keeping your eye on as we get into some of these fall months here? Like the the Clarity Act vote has been rescheduled for September 15th. Um and some people are saying, you know, if that surprises everybody and passes that can be a big catalyst. Is there anything else that you're watching for between now and like in Q4 that you think might really kind of move markets in a positive direction here?

>> The Clarity Act could be one because the market's probably seeing like 20% odds that's actually gonna happen. So, it's very one-sided. Uh, I mean, the good news is if it doesn't pass, then it probably won't have very big imp it will not have a very big impact on the market. But, I would say if it can clear and hold, if Bitcoin can clear and hold above the recent range highs, uh, which is just kind of like 65 to 70. I I mean we've crossed through like to the 70 kind of level, but if it actually follows through with more volume, then that for me would be technical confirmation that we're actually in a new trading regime. So for me, I mean, the timing is a lot more flow and macro driven. It's, you know, it's not going

to be it's not going to follow calendar for sure. Like I I think that the macro environment definitely supports it. Um, so I think that sustained move higher into Q4 is certainly plausible. If we continue seeing this persistent ETF inflow, if the raise liquidities like I mean if these things don't tighten aggressively, which it does not appear to be, uh, then I think that we can definitely keep moving up. >> Okay. So you think that the bottom should be in and you think we're going to directionally go higher here. You've talked about the macro backdrop a few times, so I want to unpack that a little bit more. the US Treasury announced that they're going to be doubling their buybacks on some of their longer duration debt, the 10-year, the 30-year, um, and then issuing shorter duration debt. And the market has reacted to this

very positively to say the least. Um, but I wonder if you could just tell us a little bit about what's actually happening here, why this matters, and just what, you know, crypto investors should know about what's going on here. Well, it's interesting because it did have a very large impact on the markets in the day that it was announced. But as we're recording this, which is on Thursday, you can even see that a lot of things are moving back to prior levels in part because I think some people are calling Besson's bluff to some extent. Uh, you know, like and that's not wrong. I mean like there is definitely an activist treasury move here to kind of manage the long end of the curve and Bessant basically he's had it right. He hates kind of like seeing people try to

try to push this. He hates hearing these headlines of like this is the highest yield on 10 year 30-year bond since blah blah blah date and like those headlines definitely I'm sure are grading on his nerves. So he's stepping in here and he's trying to put a bid in in the long end of the curve. But you can see that a lot of those yield declines are starting to kind of get eroded again. Like people are once again kind of talking about, oh, are we going to see the 10-year back at like 475? Could you cross five again? Like, you know, like honestly, I did think that we kind of saw the peak in like longend bond yields already, which would be great for risk, uh, great for equities, great for crypto. Um, but now you're getting these critics who are saying like, oh, this could be some like

just debt reshuffling. They're just buying some of the old bonds. is they're, you know, still going to issue new ones. So, the large deficits are going to continue, which honestly I think should work in the favor of Bitcoin in particular. Um, but we've seen that, you know, in the past, you know, 12 months or so, it's been kind of mixed in response to that kind of fiscal deficit question. That narrative could kind of come back uh I think in the September October period where the uh Treasury is actually responding to the market here. And again, it's just more of like a timeline thing, right? We've already seen like Bitcoin sell off by like 50%. So for a lot of people, it's much cheaper now and a lot of people are still kind of out of this market,

liquidity hasn't fully kind of come back. But once people step back into markets again after the summer holidays, they're going to raise these questions about, well, how does this sit with what's what is doing with the Fed, for example, and like is this a stronger signal or a weaker signal? So, I still think that, you know, right now like people are trying to say like, well, maybe Bessant is just talking this book and he's just kind of like trying to do verbal intervention inside this market. Maybe like what he wants to buy back in 30-year 10-year bonds isn't like like large enough to actually make a dent.

But, I wouldn't discount that the Treasury actually has more firepower if they want to do this. And they have a direct line to war if they need the Fed to do something as well. So I would take the other side of it. >> Gotcha. Okay. So what I'm hearing you say is that Scott Bessant is trying to get a hold of the the shape of the yield curve and the market is still kind of calling his bluff and I I think it's speculation at this point who wins that tugof-war and what his next move is going to be. Um but the end result seems to be that the market's pretty convinced that the debasement trade as it's been called is back and gold and Bitcoin are rallying pretty hard here. Do you think that that is sort of like a sustainable trend? In other words, is the debasement

trade back? And do you think that the the rally we've seen um and like the fundamental structural support on these assets is likely to to m be sustained kind of no matter who wins this arm wrestling match? >> Yeah, I should be really clear. I do not think the debasement trade is back and I do not think that's what we're seeing in these markets right now. I think we are seeing that gold has rallied like over 10% uh over the last few days. Bitcoin's kind of coming back and so it's easy to assign the narrative of just like well look at what the Treasury is doing like like obviously like we're now $40 trillion dollars in terms of uh of the burden that we actually have in this country like this is clearly what's contributing to this. I think this is more people kind of looking at this and

kind of saying hey gold's back at 4,000 that looks pretty cheap uh to take a punt. you know, crypto hasn't done anything for months. It's, you know, 60% off if it's like last price. Let's, you know, take a chance and and actually like buy. So, I think that's kind of where we're with markets. I think this is very much a traders market. Uh, you know, I used to have this debate with people like I I used to be head of Latin America research over at HSBC and I would argue with the other department heads because they always search for these narratives and you know it's more economically focused. It's more economically oriented. That's how we're trained, right? We're like we're taught to kind of be like, well, what's the story of like of going this kind of

stuff? And honestly, I would always I would be very pragmatic about these things. And I think that's kind of where we are now. I'm just like, guys, it's a it's a discount on 50%. like why would you do or like or like gold is you know back to uh like the levels that people were trying to get in the last time like gold started rallying now as a result do I think that these things are going to like at least in the case of gold do I think gold's going to rally back to the same levels we saw previously probably not I think people are going to take a punt on it they're going to try to kind of push it higher um and it will move like directionally I have no doubt that that's probably where it's going to Oh, but we won't see the same kind of levels

of appreciation that we saw previously. I mean, similarly for Bitcoin, I don't know what the level is. Like honestly, like I'm not trying to pick the level. I think it's more for me like what I do know is, you know, the direction which is higher and the timeline which I do think is going to come post Jackson Hole probably when people come come back from after Labor Day in early September. it's going to coincide uh with the Treasury movement which is going to start from like I think summer 9th all the way through like the uh US elections. So, I think that that period is going to look really attractive for risk in general and Bitcoin's going to sit in the smack dab in the middle of that and people are going to be like, "Oh, yeah, it's going

to be attractive." Now, at that point, are you going to sign a narratives around it? Maybe, you know, like people are going to be like, "Oh, it's a four-year cycle. The four-year cycle's over." Or like it's basically the start of a new four-ear cycle and that's why like Bitcoin's rallying. Or are they going to say like, "Oh, it's a debasement trade." All this kind of stuff. But honestly, I think it's really a matter of like trend and momentum more than anything else. Okay. So, you think it's not related to what's going on with the Treasury? It's just Bitcoin and gold got to bargain basement prices and the market decided to finally step in and take advantage of that. Um, I I think that's a a really healthy perspective and you know, we'll we'll see, right?

There's a lot still playing out with all of this and things can change fast. You've talked about Jackson Hole a couple times. I want to get your thoughts on this. The Federal Reserve decided to hold rates constant at their last meeting. Uh Kevin Worsh, who is the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to speak in Jackson Hole on August 28th. For those who don't know what David's been referring to, there is an annual economic policy symposium that happens in Jackson Hole and it's customary for the Fed chairman to make some remarks and sort of like um give some thoughts on on the economy on the economy on monetary policy and just what's going on there. Uh what are you expecting Kevin Worsh to say at the symposium and why do you think this is such an important speech for him?

>> Yeah, the title of his speech tells us nothing by the way. I think the title of the speech is like financial innovation blah blah blah blah implications for payments policy. Honestly, I'm not expecting him to reveal too much in part because he's largely said he really hates forward guidance. He doesn't like providing heavy forward guidance. I'm sure he's going to come back in and keep making that 2% inflation commitment. I think I said the same thing last time I was on your show like a month ago. you know, like he's very much wedded to this idea that he wants to to to, you know, get across that he uh cares a lot about inflation, but does that mean he's going to react to it if, you know, inflation breaks out of the the target range? I mean, these are all the questions that

people have, but I think that he's more than likely going to, you know, frame like rates, balance sheet issues within the context of his commitment to inflation. um he's gonna admit that maybe bond yields have been under some pressure, so he's kind of watching out for it. But honestly, I don't think that, you know, his debut at Jackson Hole is going to be a huge rate signal. I don't think he's going to, you know, frame the inflation fight in a way that people are going to be satisfied with. He's just going to talk about, you know, what the Fed toolkit's going to be like.

He's probably, you know, going to disappoint anyone who's expecting easy money, but at the same time, you know, he's probably not going to sound terribly hawkish. That would be kind of my take on this. >> Gotcha. Okay. So, you're expecting some comments, but not really a whole lot of forward guidance out of this. I think that's pretty consistent with what he's been doing. And you're right, he really has been pounding the table on the committee will deliver price stability over and over again. So, I'm sure we'll get more of that, too. Do you think that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to keep a lid on inflation here without hiking interest rates? There's there's been a lot of speculation that there would be some kind of a rate hike at some point this year. That hasn't happened yet. It seems like they're trying to avoid doing that, but you

know, how do you read this? Do you think we're going to get a rate hike before the end of the year or do you think they'll be able to control inflation without doing that? >> No, I don't think we're going to get a rate hike before the end of the year. And if we did, it would be more of a one-off insurance hike like what the EC bid, uh, excuse me, the, uh, European Central Bank did earlier this year. Like, I wouldn't think that this is a, you know, series of hikes, for example. In part because this economy doesn't necessarily need it right now. I think that a lot of people worried about energy and other things. Well, first of all, that's not part of core PCE. That's not what the Fed actively pays attention to, you know. I think that for me already we are in a disinflationary

trend and I know I'm on the minority side of that when I say this. Um, but this has been a long-standing view that I've had when I look at what's happening with wage growth, what's happening with productivity. Like wage growth is slightly down, so don't get me wrong. Like I think we used to be around 4%, we're down to like three and a half, closer to maybe even 3%. But productivity has been back on the rise. is like I think we're back at levels of like 2 2 and a half% which means that really inflation like longterm stands somewhere between 1 and a half 2%. I mean, this is back of the envelope math, but when you really consider like that productivity, supply side factors, plus the job data revisions that we've been

getting over the last few months, really, I don't think that we are in an intolerant kind of phase for the Fed where they're targeting, you know, inflation and like the 2%. Now, don't get me wrong, like I've made the point before that what we see in the numbers is very very different from what we feel. Like what we feel is completely ball different ball game. Like it's it's like things are super expensive or it feels very very expensive right now. You can just go out and you're like I'm paying what for that price. But of course, we see that, you know, one side of the equation, which is like, oh man, like what I what I'm paying at the store

is definitely a different experience from, well, what is my actual wage growth and like am I keeping up with that? You know, that's what we really care about when we're thinking about price stability. Now, those two things are different. Like what we measure from like CPI/core PCE is very different from what we're feeling. But I think Wars' view is closer to we can still have strong growth, price stability if we do the job right than trying to do this classic, you know, very cruel tradeoff uh on framing that the Fed has done in the past. So, you know, I don't think that it's necessary for the Fed to do that, but you know, of course, ultimately whether rates need to go higher is going to be data dependent. Uh

but I think there's going to be flexibility around that 2% commitment because what of what is implied over the long term. >> You know, one thing we've talked about a lot on this show is that crypto is quickly becoming a huge part of the global payments infrastructure. And nowhere is that more obvious than in Asia. But if you're actually running a remittance company or a payment business, you know that the hard part isn't moving the stable coins. It's dealing with local banking partners, compliance, liquidity, and all of the operational headaches that come with sending money into places like India and Southeast Asia. That's why today's partner is Saber. They give payment companies stable coinpowered infrastructure to collect and make payouts across Asia without having to build all of that complexity themselves.

They've already processed more than $3 billion in transactions across 40 different countries. So, this isn't just a concept. These guys are actually doing this for real. If you're building payment infrastructure or expanding into Asia, make sure you check out saber.money. I want to get your thoughts on how this comes back to the setup for Bitcoin and crypto. But I want to ask one more question about the Fed and about Worsh and just kind of what you're expecting here because he's initiated, I think, a half dozen different task forces, he's called them to re-evaluate almost everything that the Federal Reserve does. And like you said, he hasn't been, you know, very verbose about a lot of these things, but he's been very active and uh just, you know, doing a whole lot at the Fed and and considering a lot of changes to the Fed, even though he's not

communicating a ton about it. What is your read of this? What are you expecting these task forces to like result in in terms of changes to the Federal Reserve and changes to what we can expect from monetary policy? >> Yeah, so over the last 20 plus years, I've worked at a at a few different large firms and inevitably you will run into this if you ever worked at a corporate job which is like, oh, we're going to form this blue ribbon committee and it's going to be this highle group of corporate experts. They're leaders inside the firm. Maybe we'll get some outside specialists and we're going to study this this super complex problem and our big issue and we're going to make these changes. And honestly, it feels like Wars, excuse me, giving us the answers. We know what he likes. We know what he doesn't like. He thinks

inflation is no, not quite a choice. But at the same time, you know, he's committed to it. I don't I don't think that he's wrong when his pedigree is like he's been hawkish on that in the past, but he feels the balance sheet is too damn big. He hates floor guidance. He thinks it's a mistake. He thinks the Fed shouldn't be hostage to market prices. Like I think that he basically stood up these five task forces and called in these quote unquote like outside experts. I shouldn't put that in quotes. They are outside experts. But like that is like classic blue ribbon move. You know, you like you don't convene a panel to discover like something new. You basically do it to confirm what you already believe in. And I think that's kind of what we have here. Like he's definitely convening it because he wants these experts to agree

with his view. So, I don't think it's going to be like these like discovery kind of committees. I think if anything, it's going to be like committees to reinforce the views that he already has. I've laughed through that whole answer because anybody who's ever worked at like a major corporation or organization of any kind knows exactly what you're talking about. So, I'm just going to leave that alone and move on. David, what is the the the tieback to to Bitcoin and altcoins for for all of this? What's the setup for crypto that you're forecasting here? because it seems like we've finally seen some signs of life from the market and whatever the cause like you said maybe it's just a good price maybe it's some other things but there is some now some life back in crypto and the macro setup here I think is is a big part of of maintaining that

bullishness how does this come back to Bitcoin and crypto what is the setup you're anticipating for the rest of the year from all this >> yeah that's part of the reason why I'm bullish on Bitcoin uh into the end of Q3 basically September I guess like I think it's probably going to be around like you know late later or midepptember to where it really kind of begins and into that October period given the fact that it's been like a year since that like October selloff of 2025. And I think that that really kind of suggests that like Bitcoin's macro beta is real. I think maybe the structural buyers have changed over time. Like once upon a time used to be heavily retail. Um, I think some of that retail flow still exists,

but it's kind of converted to the ETF side of things in part because cheaper. You don't have to kind of worry about uh custody, which you know, we just had that incident uh more recently about self- custody. Um, and I think that a lot of flows can actually override the pure rates narrative for stretches of at a time. I think it's kind of where we're going as we get into end of Q3, early Q4. And I think that you know we have some of the benefits uh that you already mentioned like we have a cleaner regulatory path you know like even if we don't get the clarity act for example CFTC is doing a lot uh the SEC is doing a lot um I think the the Fed's reaction function is a lot more predictable so I think it's going to become a lot easier

for the capital to stay allocated into long duration assets and that's going to be Bitcoin it's going to be some tech stocks it's going to include like AI other things. You know, maybe altcoins are going to have still a pretty rough time trying to get back, but certainly less so now that Bitcoin is going to be well supported. And like you said, like we it can be it's can be happen really quickly. Like Bitcoin, ETH, all of this can start to come back. And that's kind of what you need. You need like that chart for people to kind of look at this and say like, I've been missing this.

Like finally, it's coming back. Let's kind of play. And I think that's what we're going to see uh over the next few weeks, few months. >> Ethereum and some of the altcoins have been leading on this recent market rally. Um and I think that's gotten some attention and maybe surprise some people. Do you expect that to continue through the end of the year? In other words, do you expect some strength or maybe even outperformance from Ethereum or do you think that Bitcoin is going to take that crown back and and sort of lead into the end of the year? >> Bitcoin remains the precondition for any of those altcoins to actually do well. I think that's part of the reason why the altcoin season was has been elusive for so long. In part too because of what happens after the events of 1010, you know, like so much of that really

impacted altcoins more so than anything else. Um, and that kind of feeds into my thesis. It's the stuff that's gotten beaten down the most that is starting to look attractive to people again. So, if you're going to take a play on crypto, well, you can take a leverage proxy play on Bitcoin by getting to some of those altcoins, but capital will remain selective. You know, you see that with Hyperlid, for example, and Hyperlid also benefited from the fact that it was mentioned by name uh at that those White House meetings of the last two days. So I think that the areas with clearer institutional or revenue hooks um and that's going to be you know things that

are adjacent to real world assets or maybe some particular L1 L2 infrastructure with real usage i.e. Ethereum or those kinds of things. Um it might be AI Jason stuff. I think that some of those names I think will be seen by uh investors as higher quality. Um maybe there's they will have uh things that are going to be more sustainable for people because I think a theme that we've seen kind of play out over the last two years is that people want to see that these things are tied to revenues, fees, um and they're going to draw more interest from investors rather than just kind of pure narrative plays.

Like I don't think that environment is here anymore. Uh but that said, I think Bitcoin dominance, even if it's not going to overtake uh some of these other assets, I think it's going to stay very elevated. So, I think any recovery will still need a favor quality uh first. >> Okay. So, keep looking at the king to see the rest of the performance, but some things that are beaten down should show some strength. Appreciate that perspective. I want to talk a little bit more about this um you know, meeting at the White House. Uh, as you said, Trump verbally said the word hyperlquid. I actually think what he said was hyper liquid. Um, but in any event, the market really loved it. Um, and the SEC and the CFTC also made some announce

announcements as well. They they rolled out this this framework. Um, part of which covers things like initial coin offerings, fundraising for digital asset tokens, but then also uh an innovation safe harbor um and an exemption for for projects that are just starting to bootstrap their networks and develop. Talk to me about the importance of that. Do you think that's going to be enough to bring in more capital, more attention, more talent and sort of like revitalize the the digital asset ecosystem overall in the United States or how significant is this in your mind? >> I think it's a sign that this administration hasn't forgotten about crypto and you know that's important because there's a lot of things going on. Obviously, we're ahead of the midterms. Um but you know at the very least for the next 2 years like we still

have a clear path to actually you know build out the the crypto ecosystem, build out these projects. Um and I think the roll back risk is definitely a lot lower than where it had been previously. Now, of course, that said, like people want to get a real clarity bill passed sometime in the next two 2 and 1/2 years in order to affirm that this isn't going anywhere. And I think that, you know, that part is why the flows could still kind of come in because there are still institutional players out there who are concerned about investing too much money on it and then seeing that and another administration kind of turns back all

these things that the SEC and CFTC are doing. Um, but for now I think that the SEC releasing these new this new guidance, these new rules, you know, making it easier for projects to raise capital or tokens under certain exemptions, I think these things are definitely important and certainly I think, you know, even the fact that they're just under executive agency, I think it every incremental change that happens makes it a little bit harder for another administration to come in and kind of undo things. Uh but you know ultimately it will come down to can we get this done? Can we get the clarity act done uh sometime before the next elections? Could you talk to me a little

bit about Trump's comments specifically on hyperlquid and how he wants to try to bring that into the US and he said a fully compliant manner which I have no idea how that happens or what that even means but it does sound to me like a major change to US capital markets right like making perpetual futures contracts like Hyperlid or other competitors you know regulatory compliant um it changes a lot of the dynamics for not just digital assets but for legacy markets. what does that world look like? How do you think that changes things and just how does that play out if they do start bringing hyperlquid and perpetual futures into America?

>> Yeah, I mean anecdotally, uh I've talked to a lot of per uh you know, DEX products or projects in the past and you know like all of this like tend to be like things that you can only do offshore. So I would ask them like, "Oh, who's like your biggest kind of clients? Like where do they come up?" And inevitably they'll say, "Oh, it's it's all in the US. That's where the volume is." And I'm like, "But the U US citizens can't do this." Like what what are you talking about? And they're like, "No, it's like either they'll find a way through VPN or some workaround, but clearly this is something that people want to do in the US." But the problem has been like it's really really hard to govern because from a CFTC perspective

you know we don't have any formal structure to kind of to guide us on the rules and this and you know you might say like oh but functionally we've been able to do it like abroad like for all this time like why can't the US do it and a lot of it comes down to that separation between the SEC and the CFTC in terms of uh security and like a derivative and what sits inside the SEC and the CFTC. Um, so much of that power theoretically, this is a derivative contract, so it should sit with CFTC. But, you know, honestly, I just be practical about it. The CFTC doesn't have as much funding as as the SEC to kind of govern uh, you know, people and

make sure that people protected when it comes to these things. So, figuring out settlement, what should be like uh, a standard way of doing this? For example, should it be every 4 hours? should be every 8 hours where like you actually uh are settled the funding rate you know like I think those things will need to be standardized to some extent um or at least have rules that the CFTC can actually look at and say like okay this is what you can do you know this is the formula that you need to use uh and even now like different exchanges use different formulas for settling uh those funding rates so I think that these are the things that you know they're going to try to get to uh but ultimately like they want to do it. Um it's not just

coming from Trump. Um I mean there's a lot of people like both of you know from the the Dubai side like uh investors who want this to happen. Um so really they're trying to deliver this and if it happens I could see this extending to so many products. I mean Hyperlid's already done it right. They've already done it for commodities done for equities. Um, and I could see that this could be a new instrument uh for like all traders like inside the US. >> Yep. And we're going to have to see how this all plays out. But I I appreciate those thoughts on that. There's a lot to to figure out in all of this. Um, so we'll keep monitoring that closely.

David, you are no longer at Coinbase, so I think that means I can try to get you to make price predictions. Um, do you think Bitcoin is going to be over or under 100K by the end of this year? >> Over. you know, like at one point I thought that uh you know, we could get towards that 85 90 level, which is kind of where volume has sat uh for a little while, but the more I'm kind of looking at the macro environment, the more more I'm looking at markets, um yeah, I think it crossed into six figures. >> That is one of the most bullish things I You are such a like circumspect and like level-headed person and to hear you calling for Bitcoin over 100K by year end is really really bullish to hear.

Um, David, look, I always enjoy our conversations so much. Our audience at Milk Road does as well. We all love you very much here. Uh, so thank you so much for coming back on the Milk Road Show, sharing your insights and thoughts on the markets with us today. I know our audience is going to really appreciate this. Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online? >> Yeah. Uh, so I don't really publish a ton of things anymore because I'm at Coinbase. Um, and I'm working my own stealth startup at the moment. Uh, but if you go to Twitter, you can find me at like David Dwang. And uh yeah, feel free to message me. Maybe I'll respond. I don't check it that often, but uh yeah, I occasionally post there.

>> Well, I'm looking forward to hearing more about the Stealth startup. I hope the next time we have you on, Bitcoin is over 100K. But thank you so much for being here, David. >> Thanks so much. >> And thank you all for joining us. I hope you all learned something today. So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish. We'll see you at Bitcoin 100K. And uh thanks for being here on the Milk Road Show, everyone. See you next time. Bye. >> Thanks for listening to Milk Road. If you enjoyed the show, make sure you like and subscribe. And if you're struggling to find winners in the market, that's exactly what Milkro Pro is built for. Our analysts have called some of the biggest winners early, and Pro lets you see what they're buying next, every trade they make, and the research behind every position. Check out Milkroad Pro

at the link below. Everything you hear on Milkroad is forformational purposes only. These are our personal opinions, not financial advice, and we may own some of the investments we talk about. Always do your own research and make the decisions that are right for you. See you next time.