Scott Melker on why Bitcoin is stuck despite good news

Transcript

I bought this thing to opt out of this entirely and also I used to be able to just trade it looking at a chart and now I, have, to, all, of a, sudden, become, a macroeconomist to be able to understand what Bitcoin might do. What's up everybody? It's LG Doo said here and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show where nothing makes sense everyone's confident anyway and somehow the charts keep gaslighting us. Today is December 15th, 2025 and Scott Melker the wolf of all streets is back on with us. He's been saying for years that governments will always find a way to keep markets afloat. that timebased capitulation is more dangerous than price crashes and that this cycle feels really freaking weird, man. He's been on a couple times the last few months.

Still, in this time, Bitcoin is going nowhere. Stocks seem to be going somewhere. Gold is screaming like I guess recession, right? Cuz it keeps going up to alltime highs and altcoins are pretty much dead. Scott covers all this stuff literally every single day and he has been for years. So now at the end of 2025, which was supposed to be this golden year of crypto, especially Q4, it has not panned out. We wanted him on one more time to tell us what, if anything, is going to change this current chop trend and what are going to be the indicators for that. So we're going to get into it in just a second but first, today's episode is brought to you by Chain Link, which links Web 3 to Wall Street. Bridge send stablecoin payments instantly simple global friction free and reserved ETFs, the onchain equivalent of ETFs. Scott

welcome back to Milk Road, man. >> Thanks,, man., Good, to, see, you, again. >> Yeah,, likewise., Just, for, people, that don't know, I had Scott on my show three and a half years ago, the first mint, and it was it was mind-blowing. A lot of people in our NFT community, it made them realize they needed to look outside of NFTs, Scott, because there was a big [laughter] >> No,, they, needed, it., They, needed, it., Uh, and it's a good thing that they did. And we're I was very happy to have you then. And and it's great to reconnect with you. Um, so let's get right into it man. Last time you were on with Jay, um you told us that the market was was felt confusing yet stable. Was that how you would describe it today, right here, uh December 15th with just two weeks left

in the year? >> Definitely, still, confusing,, potentially less stable. I don't remember what the price is when we discuss that, but obviously there's a lot of uh I would say fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the market at the moment. And you know, as we're speaking today, Bitcoin obviously has broken down a bit. we've sort of uh migrated down to a lower range where we're more trading kind of, you know low 80s to mid 90s than, you know, mid 90s to 100. So, I think a lot of people waiting for the elusive Santa Claus rally wondering what the catalyst could possibly be for 2026. Confused about the macro and the data. It's just confusing is an understatement honestly as we

think about this, right? I mean you had the FOMC meeting last week and you do have to look at those things now I think when you're a Bitcoin trader and investor but you had the meeting that was the first time you really saw disscent even within the Fed right I mean they couldn't agree on anything they some people thought it should be 50 point cut some people thought no cut at all and if you extended beyond the voting members it was about 50/50 on whether they should be even cutting pal seemed confounded we're going to get a new Fed chair we haven't gotten any data because of the government shutdown we're going to get that data delayed and obviously, they're, going to, cook, that data to make it look however they want after not doing it for three months.

Just massive confusion at the moment and I think that Bitcoin is largely you know, reacting to that and uh hard to make a definitive move to the upside until some of that is resolved. >> You, know,, Scott,, I've, been, on, this, show now taking over for J for a few months and it's been really interesting to talk to experts like you who give us, you know, we we kind of get their takes every day. One question I've been really curious to ask and I haven't really asked anybody and I wanted to ask you specifically when we had you on next time is does crypto feel like an afterthought because I feel like the main story that we when we're trying to figure out crypto the only thing that I look at is macro and liquidity and everything that was like the institutional bit that's that's almost

kind of like okay that happened we know it's there but nothing can move until these macro factors do this this and this and there's so many other things that seem to benefit from that and not crypto. So, it feels like is it is it just further down the food chain now or what's going on? >> I, think, to, some, degree,, yes., The, major catalyst and I think when we should effectively benchmark prices too, was when Trump won the election a year ago in November, right? You can say 2025 has been a down year or you can look back 365 days as sort of an arbitrary point for where price is trading. But I think we effectively had a repricing of Bitcoin and maybe you could say the crypto market the day that he was elected, right? you saw this kind of massive uptick. Bitcoin went, you know

up to where it started trading around the 100,000 area, you know, a month after that. That was it though, right? So, you kind of had everything that he had promised priced in because of his election and the fact that we knew that it was coming and it's really been stagnant ever since then. And I think predictably uh crypto's been a bit marginalized in the narrative because the government actually has other things to do besides worry about like if all coin number 74 and coin market cap is going to pump this week or not, right? So I think maybe our eyes were a little too wide in our expectations of what price would do when we got that big price bump effectively after the election. So is it an afterthought? No. Like not really. I

think it's weird that we have to talk about macro. I hate having to do it. I I miss the days of when we could just talk about Catalyst for Bitcoin and pretend that we lived in a little bubble, but it's just clearly not the case anymore right? That I think that that's part of the maturing process, part of the institutionalization is that it's going to do certain things during New York market hours and it's going to do certain things based on which institutions are doing things and inflows and outflows and all this stuff. And I think honestly that's why a lot of the early Bitcoiners with huge stacks have left, right? We've seen very clearly that a lot of the early whales are selling. They probably looked at it and were like, "F this, man. Like this isn't what I signed up for. Like I don't

care what Black Rockck's inflows are or what Donald Trump has to say. I I bought this thing to opt out of this entirely. And also, I used to be able to just trade it looking at a chart and now I have, to, all, of a, sudden, become, a macroeconomist to be able to understand what Bitcoin might do. I think it's just a very different market than it used to be. So narrative-wise, like I think price makes us feel like it's an afterthought because it hasn't moved. And I think we're extremely spoiled because we get news stories on a daily basis now that would have moved the market 10% on a given day two years ago.

And so I think people are just kind of over it. You mentioned my thoughts on time g based capitulation. And I feel like that's what's happening really is that people are just they can't take it. Like why hasn't it moved? Every single day there's a new story. It is mind-blowing. I mean the DTCC last week is going to tokenize markets entirely. I mean this is the biggest institution for settlement of stock and everything trading and they said they're going to be doing it by 2026. Paul Atkins said that the entire global the entire United States financial system will be on blockchain rails by the end of 2026 or within two years. I mean, these are absurd statements and price doesn't move.

>> As, you, guys, are, listening, to, the, show, you know that there's something hanging over the entire economy and that's AI. And the problem with AI content is that almost no one explains what the news actually means for investors. Our new AI newsletter fixes that. Twice a week, we break down the moves, the winners, the risks, and where the puck might be going. If you invest in tech at all, the link is in the description below. Check it out. Scott, when I talked to you three and a half years ago, I was blown away that you were doing a show about crypto every single day, and you still do.

>> Did, you, expect, this, at, this, point, so soon? Did you did you think that this would ever happen? >> Ever, happen?, Yes., But, uh, on, a, much longer timeline and it all, like I said all it took was that single catalyst. The government just changed, right? And all of a sudden, we had the pendulum swing all the way back from completely unreasonable to reasonable. and you had people put in positions of power who could affect that change. But that said we got a bunch of it. Now, you know because it's priced in, all eyes are on the Clarity Act and the next, you know strategic Bitcoin reserve and all the other things that can happen. And of course, now we get to a certain point and we're going to be talking about midterms and all these other things politics, macro. Like I said, it's very

confusing, I think, for your average uh crypto enthusiast at the moment. But that said, people who do understand that stuff are now participating in Bitcoin who wouldn't have before. So I think it's a net positive and you're actually getting a lot more people participating. It's just not for the libertarian values and such that were originally espoused by the Bitcoin community. But no, I did not think that we would be having conversations about Black Rockck and JP Morgan and the United States government and all the things happening around the world by the end of 2025. But would you feel would you feel like because there's definitely this I I don't know how maybe you would summarize the the current feeling in crypto differently of just this like exhaustion. We thought we'd be

higher. We're not. We're waiting for all these it's just we're just kind of beat down at this point. Do you think that would be significantly different? It's a stupid question to ask now that I say it, but would would these feelings be different if we were at twice the amount of, prices?, You, know what, I, mean?, Would we be happy to track the macro if it meant that we were at 200K and 6K? You know, >> my, my my, favorite, thing, to, say, is, that nothing uh nothing is a better marketing tool for Bitcoin than higher prices. And that's the the same I think for any asset. But there's excitement when prices are going up and the news all of a sudden seems bullish and everything moves price. And then you can have the exact same news that's equally as bullish, but if price is down or

sideways, nobody pays attention to it and they're all depressed. So with any asset,, like, if, we, break, above, a hundred out of nowhere, if we get one of those god candles to the upside in a month you know, in two weeks we're up 20,000 more dollars, which by the way, we all know is totally possible for Bitcoin at any given time >> the, exact, same, narratives, will, have flipped, you know, and the way that people talk about them and the way that we discuss things. So yeah, I mean I think that if we were sitting at 150 right now alongside gold's massive run every narrative would be completely different around the same exact fundamental story.

[clears throat and cough] >> Yeah,, I, agree., Yeah,, it's, funny., It's just and we're still so high compared to years ago and yet it just doesn't feel that way. That's what that's what I think is so so strange about this. >> It, doesn't, feel, that, way, for, so, many reasons though because a like everybody thought that all of these news stories as we said would push price. though you should be much higher rationally, right? Even yes, you can go back 3 years and say, "Wow, would I be pretty happy if Bitcoin was, you know, at 90ish,000 at the end of 2025?" Probably, right? Because prices were much lower. That said, if you were a believer in the four-year cycle 126 was a pretty uninspiring top if you believe that that's the case. We didn't even double from, you know, last year uh last cycle's high. I'm not a big

believer in the four-year cycle at this point, but I can understand why people would feel that way. it just failed to do all the things that I think people were anticipating to the upside. So I think that it causes a lot of uh question marks. >> Yeah., The, that, you, know, there, was, a, big narrative naturally that Q4 would be this blowoff top, right? And and that it's it couldn't have been different. It couldn't have been the more more opposite than that for for a variety of factors. I think we both covered on our shows. What is the biggest misconception right now, Scott, that could be totally wrong? because I think I think we all learn repeatedly that whatever you're seeing as the most common narrative on the timeline is likely at one point going to be incorrect. So is there anything now at the end of the year

going into 2026 that you're seeing everywhere and you're like man I I don't like that everybody thinks this. >> Well,, I, don't, think, the, top, is, in., So, it seems to have become consensus that because of the four-year cycle, we just had a muted cycle and it's all over. you know, because there was a Reddit post that said like October 6 will be the top and it happened to align with that. So I saw that >> somebody's, crystal, ball, worked., I, think the real lesson is that nobody knows anything and that you can look at every chart and every analysis and prediction and model and they're right until they're wrong. Right? And I think that as we said before, there was a consensus expectation that we had to be much

higher October and if October was bad November certainly had to be good because it's been good in the past. And so when those things break, it causes really a lot of depression. A and I think it's important to then remind ourselves that if you're actually a statistician or you actually look at you know data sets people are making all these assumptions based on like two or three data points which if you know someone who understands statistics would tell you that you're an ignoramus for doing that right you need hundreds or thousands of data points to draw any sort of conclusion. So maybe just assuming that price was going to go up because of the date was a uh poor assumption.

>> I, like, that., Speaking, of, dates,, uh, we, we were on the dawn of a new year. I've [snorts] seeing a lot from the people who have been calling bare that based even based on that Reddit post Scott which was like a 4chan calculation from years ago that this bare market from the top to the bottom will be almost a year exactly which would then put the bottom of this next thing of our next of of the next part in I guess October 2026. Is that where do you think we'll have a bottom in 2026? And how do how do we identify that? Even if you don't know how do how do we know it's a bottom if if it comes if we go below 80, if we go to 70, 60, 50. How do how do we identify that?

>> I, mean,, I, guess, if, you're, a, technical anal analyst, you just look at lines right? So, I can tell you what I see on the charts for the bearish case. I think 7475 is a glaring level. uh if we break below 80 because that's where we had a all-time high before a major retrace and then finally breaking up and going over 100. And on the bigger dip that we had this year, that was kind of the level where it stopped. It's just a gratuitous line on the chart. We've broken down the 50 MA on the weekly chart, which is a line that many people look to to define a bullish or bearish trend. That's never happened in a bull market. To me, that's the most bearish case if you're a chart technician. And every time it's happened, we visited the 200 MA below.

That's at 56,000 right now and rising. So that's another that would be a wow holy crap, I'm selling my house to buy Bitcoin kind of level. I know a lot of people would say that's a depressing level. I say like mortgage your kids right? Um so you know, I guess you'd view it differently if you have a different view on the long-term trajectory. That said, like it would not surprise me at all if 80 was the bottom. I could be wrong about that by the end of this show, by the way. But it would not surprise me at all if 80 was the bottom. We got a 30% plus retrace. That's very common even in a bull market. But also, I think the more compelling argument to that is if you're looking at this as a cycle and you're looking at it to repeat the past, if we

got exceptionally muted upside, that being we got to 126 when the previous high was effectively 70, right? 69 plus 69,420 for for the fun people listening right? But uh we didn't even 2x from there. Like we went up 1.6 whatever the number is, right? Uh from the previous all-time high, why would you expect a 75 to 90% downside if we didn't even get the upside and all coins never moved right? So even if you're a deep believer in the idea of the four-year cycle and the top, like 30% would be a massive retrace already based on the upside that we got, which was extremely muted. So I don't know. I've got a lot of bids.

Listen, my big bids were in the 80s. And when we broke up in March, April, I was talking very publicly that I was bidding kind of the 88 area and people thought I was an and an idiot and a and they filled and it even went lower right? Um, and I waited 6 months. Now I have bids lower just in case right? So, 74. If that hits, we'll start talking about the 50s, right? But all of those things, even if like I personally would love that, uh I want to own Bitcoin for a very very long time and I want to own a lot more of it and it seems really rational if that's your approach. You'd rather be buying it at 80 than 126 and certainly at 50 rather than 126.

So I'm keeping dry powder on the side. That would be the sort of yeah, I'm going to be more exposed to this than I want to if it actually hits, but I'm going to buy. But none of that worries me in the long term. I don't think it's a signal that Bitcoin's broken. It's never going to go up again, but I'm just not really worried about like the arbitrary dates of the cycle hitting anymore. There's so many things about this cycle that look nothing like previous four-year cycles that just cuz we had a top in October is one one of the many things I would put on my checklist to confirm a cycle. Stable coins are the biggest use case in crypto right now. But let's be real, using them on chain is still way too complex.

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that you're you're planning to hold Bitcoin for a long time, which obviously we would expect and I'm sure you've spoken about many times. Scott, three and a half years ago, I asked you about portfolio building and because we were all like NFT freaks who had like, you know, 80% of our net worth and in a couple JPEGs, which was terrible. >> I, don't, remember, what, I, said,, but, it couldn't have been. >> I, can, tell, you, what, you, said., I, can, tell you what you said [laughter] because people were very curious about it. And I think people are going to want to know if I don't know. I don't know. It's the same audience, but maybe you can tell us about that and how much that's changed. This is very simple, Scott. You said 70% in your majors. And this is your crypto portfolio, not everything else. 70%

majors, >> 15%, stables,, and, 15%, just, fun, dumb, weird that, you, gamble, on, like, NFTs, or whatever. What is that still relevant? Now, >> I, think, that's, generally, uh, my, view, on how to construct a portfolio. Um I can't say that's exactly where I'm at right now, but that's mostly because the dumb has gone down so far that [laughter] it's not a big enough percentage. And I'm probably not going to add to that right now just to to rebalance. Like right now, I'd rather be in Bitcoin than most things, even if there's downside, right? Because the downside, if Bitcoin goes down, is going to be disproportionately brutal for everything else.

And right now, if Bitcoin rips to the upside, it's going to outperform everything else. So, I don't really see the altcoins outperform Bitcoin scenario in the short term because let's think about how it used to work, right? You know, Bitcoin would go up, there'd be confidence in the market, it would consolidate, people would get bored they'd buy altcoins, those would outperform Bitcoin for a while, and then you'd rush back into Bitcoin when that ended, and you had to be perfect, and it was only for a couple weeks here and there. >> Altcoins, have, never, had, that, moment, even when Bitcoin's gone up to a new all-time high and consolidated. And even if you view us as sideways now, that should be a time when altcoins will perform well. And they haven't. So what are our two scenarios? Bitcoin drops and we know altcoins would not

outperform Bitcoin if Bitcoin goes down into the 70s right now, right? They'll just turn into dust, or Bitcoin rages to the upside, and in that case, you're going to want to be in Bitcoin because it's going to outperform all coins anyways. So I just don't really see the argument. I at at the very basic level yes, I think that you should be an investor first, which means the majority of your portfolio should be in things that you're not even checking more than every 6 months or deeply caring about because you have long-term conviction. So, call it Bitcoin. Now, I could see the argument for people putting like ETH and Salana in there. If you love another token, sure, that's your long-term holdings. And for me, a lot of that the few that are now dust anyways, it was

the wrong approach, but it was kind of the last 10% of some great trade or some great investment I made before that I made a ton of profit with and I said "YOL,, I'll, keep, a, little bit, of, this just in case uh it's the, you know, the next big thing." The 15% cash is so incredibly important. And I'm not just talking about having 15 I'm not talking about having like cash in your life in the bank account or whatever. I'm talking about as a part of your portfolio that you view as a part of your portfolio that tracks because cash acts like all coins used to act in your portfolio. So, A you can't buy a dip if you don't have cash. And B, if you're denominating that portfolio in Bitcoin or in those

long-term holds or in whatever you however you choose to denominate it whatever you view as the most investable asset, when that asset drops, the value of your cash in that asset rises, much like altcoins used to play against Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin drops in price your portfolio actually has a hedge by having cash in it and then you can buy that dip. So it's really really important that you have a part of your portfolio that's in cash that you view separate from the cash that you're living your life on. The other 15% in speculation. Like I said, I still generally believe that. It's just I don't feel like in the short term I need to like rebalance that. Maybe uh down the road as I start to get a little more

confidence in the rest of the market. But, most, of the, things, that, I've, held,, I I hold hundreds of coins still from past cycles are literally down 99.9%. I don't even know where they are. Don't care. It's worth the dead. >> That's, the, one, part,, you, know,, we, didn't cover a couple years ago, Scott, was as those uh as those percentages change especially when that 15% and the gamble stuff uh goes down significantly or goes up too, uh how often you should rebalance. But uh that's I think I think we're all >> every, six, months, or, so., But, yeah,, you know, yeah. Yeah. The stuff we were holding moved a lot faster than that at the time though, Scott, that was uh that would have been too long for for those NFTs. The time to sell them was at that moment >> six, hours.

>> Yes., Yeah., [laughter] Is there um are there any alts at all that you still think have like that have that have like if that have a brighter future than others? Um, I'm sure there's a few, but is there anything that's maybe a bit more of a dark horse outside of the the the typical kind of >> So,, I've, always, believed, in, Bitcoin,, ETH to a lesser degree, Salana, which I think has had a huge moment. I was definitely a big fan of buying the massive dip on ETH and I took a beating for a long time, but it ended up playing out pretty well. Um, beyond. So those three because of their status I think with the new institutional class as sad and painful as it is for me to admit once again that we have to care about that stuff I think that they have like

they have exit velocity from being just crypton native assets right there's uh we've seen proof you can make an argument for XRP I guess not my thing they hate me for it but uh for for various reasons but clearly now it as an ETF. There's an institutional appetite for it. Ripple continues to build. My issue with it is I don't understand how the token gets value just by Ripple doing well. In fact, I think Ripple does better when they sell the token to you. So, for me, the mechanics don't really work out, but I think that if you're talking about narrative and adoption, XRP will probably go up a lot.

Chain Link seems to have a new partnership or to be doing something with another government or institution every 5 minutes. So, I think that there's a huge narrative there, but once again, price hasn't really moved on any of those news narratives. And once again, nobody's explained to me how that value occurs to the token holder. So, I think uh it's hard really to find most of the, things, I've, believed, in, have, gone down 80 or 90%. Right? So, like I think there we are entering a world where people are going to care about utility and that something actually makes money and start to value them like companies.

The question is, are they already overpriced for that moment? Like even if some of these tokens gain mainstream adoption and we actually value them based on how much they're used for gas or things like that, like they might still be overvalued even based on that metric because their value came from speculation and belief and community right? So like there's a lot of things I own. There's none that I'm like deeply convinced beyond that that they have a great reason to go up right now. I'm sure the almost the the better answer which is one I've given every cycle when people are like so what's going to be the coin of the next cycle Scott what's the secret like uh something that's not

invented yet >> right, because, old, tokens, have, so, much supply overhead they're still unlocking they have bag holders like there there's so many people just dying for any excuse to sell and lose less right so maybe it's going to be something new uh some new use case we haven't even thought about that'll be like the darling of the next thing you Maybe a Trump will launch another token. I don't know. >> Well,, even, this, cycle, you, had, something like Hyperlquid, too, right? That kind of came out and that's what that's that that was the 40X, right? That >> I, should, say, I, should, say, I, can definitely see a convincing argument for having a position in BNB as well.

>> Oh,, there, you, go., Okay., Okay., Good, one. Yeah. Um, have you have you been tempted, Scott, or have you allocated to anything outside of crypto? >> Oh,, yeah., I, mean,, I'm, not, I'm, not, just, a crypto guy necessarily. Now, I did have a really bad habit of buying things that were adjacent to crypto and pretending I wasn't buying crypto. you know, like Coinbase stock or Micro Strategy and things like that. So, is that really outside of crypto? But yeah, I've always like I have a very like pretty passive dollar cost average into the stock market uh mentality from the very beginning that I've never changed. I've been doing that since 2007 or something, you know, uh and I don't really mess with that. I also do, you know, some kind of angel investing and stuff uh on the side, not all crypto. uh

a lot of real estate stuff. Uh I had bought a bunch of property. I did a lot of real estate, but I've mostly actually exited that at a profit kind of recently. So, but just not not because I don't believe in real estate, just because it got to a point where I was like, "Okay, I can justify it and if things go bad, I'll be really happy that I kind of got out of this." I wish I could say that I was like buying, you know, rare Ferraris or something, but but it's not the case. Yeah, I have a pretty diverse portfolio. [laughter] >> No,, I, assume, so., Oh, yeah,, I, just, bet like in recent times I I mean any of the gold silver stuff or is there anything else like is there anything >> I, own, a, little, I, own, a, little, bit, but

not nearly enough and I should have you know I was really of the belief that Bitcoin would continue to outperform gold so I kind of didn't uh in any way shape or form rotate. I'm sort of not going to do it now. >> Yeah., I, mean, I've, always, had, a, little bit of precious metals. You know I even own some TLT like some bonds just in case. So you know I'm kind of broadly exposed. Has has the has the AI trade tempted you at all? >> I, missed, it., I, mean,, you, know,, I, think well, listen, I own I I own I don't own Nvidia, but I've always part of that dollar cost averaging was always Amazon Google, Meta, all those things. I bought the really big dips in those kind of in April and then on the retracements, but those are not things that I'm like

degenerate trading, right? So, I have done, well, on, the, AI, trade, or, at least the AI adjacent trade, but it hasn't been on the like specifically AI companies that have done exceptionally well. Sure, tokenized financial products are the future, but there is a big sticking point. They all need to speak to each other. This is a tough problem to solve, but chain link does exactly that. It's the universal language for financial markets, [music] linking Wall Street to web 3, banks to blockchain and so much more. See how Chainlink is linking the world by going to milkroad.com/chainlink. Right. Yeah, that makes sense. Is there I'm going to bring this back to crypto because we are we are a crypto show. Um so thanks for sharing all that. What's >> the >> crypto, show, is, a, macro, show, now,, LG.

>> It, is., Well,, that's, it., That's, what's happened. Yeah >> that's, what, happens., We, have, to, talk about Nvidia, right? Yeah. >> Well,, while, we're, chopping,, too., It's like we only have so many things. I think honestly people only want to hear so much about other projects or DeFi or alts or any of that kind of stuff. They're like, just tell me just >> Maybe, that's, our, signal, though. Honestly, maybe like this depression over all coins means we should just be plowing heavily into all of it. But I don't need to bottom. I'd rather see them bounce 20 30% across the board. Really get some confidence before I do that. [laughter] >> I'd, rather, buy, higher., That's, that's, the truth.

>> Like, what's, what's, the, what's, the, right question to be asking right now? You know, like we're going at this point in time like it's it's tired. We're exhausted. It's it's it's boring honestly while we're just waiting for these things to play out. What's what is the thing to be asking about crypto right now? What what should we be asking? Well, I think it's just really important that people do a very deep dive on why they bought it in the first place and see if those coni convictions remain or if they've been shaken. Ask yourself the honest question whether you were actually here because you believe in the asset class or were you just saying that but you actually just wanted price to go up. That was kind of my criticism of the NFT world when we probably talked three and a half years ago or in general. A lot of people said

that they were really passionate about the community and my point was that if the price goes down, you're going to find a new community where you think price is going to go up. I think I've largely been uh vindicated in that in that position. I don't see many people like talking about their lazy line community anymore or whatever it was right? And so like why are you here? And if you're here only for the up only like do you really believe that like that's going to happen with whatever is in your portfolio? And if not, is it time to maybe, you know, rebalance into other things? Or, you know, are you a Bitcoin believer, but you're still holding a lot of altcoins and you have serious doubts? Maybe lighten up the altcoin positions and get a little more Bitcoin wallet here on a dip, you know.

But I think it's a really good time to challenge your own conviction and go back to the beginning of why you're here because that will save you from capitulating because you're bored or frustrated, right? Uh you I keep saying it but like I I think it's you get a bottom when like people capitulate in mass at the bottom, right? Like that forms a bottom is when everybody finally says enough is enough and they puke and you see that big candle with the long wick and the buyers finally step in and then it's disbelief as it slowly climbs the wall of worry back into a bull market. That's a very typical bottom.

That's a way a lot of people end up selling the bottom and losing their money. But I would argue that more people just passively quietly exit in these sideway phases and you never really hear about it because they just expected something different and it hasn't happened yet. And equally, it then starts to climb slowly and starts to exit and starts to go up. And those are the very people who end up chasing and pushing price up to new all-time highs because they can't believe they sold. They can't believe they missed it. and they finally jump back in, you know 50% higher than where they sold. So, I would say the the real question I have zero questions about the adoption of crypto or blockchain anymore. It's going to be whether it's investable or not

because of this, it's going to be the underlying technology that powers the financial system. It will, right? Just cuz like who wants to send a wire if you can send a stable coin? It's just really basic like science that it's faster and cheaper. That will happen. Will that be captured entirely by JP Morgan on their blockchain that they will inevitably create to make sure that we don't get a piece of it? Probably. So like as an investment, I don't know. But I do think that our thesis that blockchain would be widely adopted is true. Bitcoin I think once again has reached exit velocity and it's going to end up being bought by countries. It's going to be mined by countries. Just don't panic because of short-term price. But yeah, I think the

question uh is not really about adoption anymore. It's what to do with your altcoins and how long are you willing to wait. >> So, sell, sell, them, all., Put, a, bin, in, at 74 with Scott and that's that's the play. >> Dude,, I, would, love, if, we, got, to, 74., It would be like the thing is like and also like does your portfolio value today actually matter? Like because if it does, it means you're kind of gambling with money that you needed. And if you're emotional about it, then it's a loss you can't take. You need to account for that. But if it's literally just like, I'm holding this stuff for 10 years, but I'm really depressed today. That makes no sense.

Just don't even look at it. >> Scott,, to, wrap, this, up,, uh,, I've, got, a question from our community. We we wanted to ask them this time if they had anything they wanted to ask from you. So,, it's, it's it's, a, macro, question,, so I hope you're ready to answer. It was very specific and this is from Zoshi if I may ask what he thinks about the impact of PBOC which I'm assuming is people bank people's bank of China uh the PBOC's liquidity on the crypto market which is currently very upwards and also whether the interest rate hike in Japan is already priced in >> those, are, big, questions, so, uh, yeah, um, I would say that Japan is a huge problem Japan carry trade was effectively powering the world global financial speculative engine because people were borrowing yen for free and basically

putting it into assets that were appreciating. And we've seen the yen carry trade start to unwind. I think the interest rate on their uh debt or bonds is now double where it was in the beginning of the year, which is something that nobody ever expected out of Japan. They never expected them to loosen the policy and it's kind of caused mayhem around the world. So, and I believe there's a big Bank of Japan meeting end of this week, maybe on Friday, that a lot of people are looking to to see what their policy will be. And that really is meaningful. As for China I think China is like steps ahead of everybody else in the deflationary panic. We need to print money because our economy is slowing. And I would say liquidity in China is probably a good thing for crypto markets and for markets

in general if the United States ends up following and such. But we do have this major push and pull between liquidity coming in because everybody's cutting and wow they're all cutting because things are so bad that stocks can't go up or assets can't go up right? So it's I think it's going to be a really interesting time. I think 2026 uh I could literally see it going both ways like equally I can equally understand the arguments for a massive bull market because of liquidity coming in and cuts and all those things or just going into a massive recession or even worse as markets collapse because they don't have any more buttons or levers to pull or push to actually be able to prop things up. So, I think it's right to be

looking at Japan and China, but you still have to look to the United States first. >> What, if, it's, in, the, middle,, Scott?, What if it's not a big recession and it's not a big bull market and we're just we're literally at 90K in a year. >> Then, I'm, hoping, it, dips, a, lot, in, between there so [snorts] that I can keep buying at lower prices than than where it is now. But I also I I don't think that Yeah, I mean I think that's a very good question because I just said 50% chance up 50% down. Let's just do it at 33 33.33 on all three because it should be equally unsurprising if kind of nothing happens.

>> Excellent., Well,, Scott, Meler,, been, great to talk to you again, man. Thank you so much for coming on the show. Uh have a great holiday season and I'm sure we'll see you in the new year. >> Thanks,, man., I, always, appreciate, you guys having me on. It's great to see you again. Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how [music] we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milk Road daily and pro newsletters and [music] start investing like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.