Ran Neuner: The Four-Year Cycle Was Always Dead

Transcript

distillation. We did a full report on this. It's public. It's free. Anybody can go read it. If you read the Deep Seek R1 paper, they did unique years ago. Like they trained on second rate hardware. They did mixture of experts. Like they're doing cool stuff. So open anthropic want a regulatory mode because Chinese open source models are getting really good. And they're not only really good, they're really cheap. They get 90% of the intelligence for a tenth the cost. And it's not even that you're getting 90% intelligence anymore because you could build your whole business and enterprise architecture around these models. Like at Deli Ventures, I have a insane news research Hermes agent that's dense. That's all my memory deals, evals, founders, notes, everything. So I get even better responses than I would

using normal open source. Like that's really scary to open anthropic that want to offer, you know, enterprise sales and sign seats and stuff like that. you have the the things that we don't like, right? Uh like the SEC when they're making bad rules and now we're like, well, at least the SEC is allowed to make any arbitrary nonsense that they want. So, we're kind of saved by that. And it's like, man, like be careful what you wish for. Like, I'll I'm here for it. I'm here for the SEC making crazy pro crypto rules. We we need to balance the ledger a little bit clearly, but like that's not the most sustainable strategy for us realistically. um you know relying on on the SEC rulemakers to to come in and and you know do stuff. I mean it is it's like it's harder I guess

for you know another regime to come in and like completely tear that down but like this regime came in and like stopped the SEC completely from doing anything let alone making rules right so you know again I I just I do worry that like we had a chance there was a chance to actually get some laws written and we somehow squandered that chance. you're using a travel agent, you're not paying for the hotel directly. Like, you're not paying the hotel directly. >> Well, I mean, I guess you could, but yeah, in this case, you're not. Uh, you're you're doing a sort of a private concierge, so to speak, because obviously for something to be like a store of value, you need to hold value in it, but then you need to also be able to do things with it to an extent, like things backed by it. I'm upset that like

not everybody uses it, but I think a good enough amount of people use it such that it does make a difference is sort of like if you use the Zcash wallet. They all have the pay feature which integrates near intense which then lets you pay on any chain, right? So you can also I also do Salani USC with this for example or you can do Ethereum or you can brush to Robin Hood whatever and it's just super convenient and like it's not like a regular bridge where you can just go back and be like oh it came from this other address. Okay, now my private concierge knows how much money I make and therefore now they're going to upsell me on all these sort of different >> importantly I think biggest unlock has been both Zcash and Mir bringing at last privacy on chain to me it's always been

kind of a biggest bottleneck to use day-to-day blockchain for anything because like I have literally a spreadsheet of 100 addresses on Ethereum and kind of near before we had privacy so I can track where who did I send money which address did I use how much that I left on that address. like it's like a it's a nightmare of like accounting system to just keep track of you know to make sure I don't link anything you know go through sex you know make sure I don't have timing attacks on like amounts etc and all that it gets solved now that we have Zcashioner really delivering on kind of like how do you have a private experience using blockchain so I think like all these things really coming together now uh as more and more people actually starting to use blockchain financial system is moving to blockchain

kind of never before and so at least that's my explanation why things are really uh really starting to appreciate. >> Well, you're breaking the news to me. Uh so I'm pumped to hear that this is out. Uh it's unsurprising. We've known this innovation exemption has been worked on by the SEC for months now and they were ready to go and there's been some fits and starts. Um but I think the the most compelling thing here is that it is illustrative that these agencies are now going to move like gang busters. That as soon as this bill failed, they had pages. We have met with the SEC. We've met with the CFTC. They have binders of proposed rules and guidance ready to go to implement as much of the ethos, objectives, goals of clarity as possible. And this isn't going to be a short-term effort between now and the

end of the year. I think this is going to between now and the end of the administration. But the next 2 and 1/2 years are going to be a onslaught of proposed rules and guidance from these two agencies. And I think the innovation exemption was just the start. I think they're going to try to see it and push the bounds of their authorizing statutes. implement as much of clarity as possible through these two agencies. I think eventually over time as this rulem really takes hold and to your point crypto has this foothold in the US then it becomes easier for Congress to say you know what let's just codify some of the things the SEC and CFTC have done and we're not trying to come up with new concepts new ideas you know in this bill it was it's all new concepts it's the ancillary asset test it's the network

token test it's the decentralization and name only test I think what will happen over time as this industry matures and if they you know if truly people get behind the SEC and CFTC rulemaking that over the next few years you will just see legislation that codifies what those agencies have already done. It's why so it's so critical that these agencies get it right. I have all the faith in the world. Uh no two better people than Paul Atkins and Mike Sealing to lead us here who know the industry so well. Um and then Congress, you know, it becomes less partisan. It becomes uh less political. It probably becomes less newsworthy.

Hey, we're just going to codify the innovation exemption so we so it stands the test of time. I think that's the most likely scenario at this point. >> Why do we need to use a mouse anymore? Why do we need to use a keyboard anymore? We just will and summon what we want and the AI starts doing it. We're moving at the speed of willpower more and more every day. So I think this AI agents is a is a extraordinary development. It's why I think semiconductors are a great opportunity. Uh and Meta is first out there. But yeah, Google is coming. Google Spark isn't testing right now. It's going to be compelling. Apple sees this. Everyone was going after the personal assistant AI. It was the obvious thing, but there are other AIs coming. The personal concierge, the personal doctor, the personal wealth manager, what we're

building at Lumida, all of these niches are going to get filled out. So, I think it's super exciting if you're long the AI trade and we're going to be mainlining AI now to consumers. Right now, it's been mostly infrastructure and compute story. This data center pol very abstract concepts. Now consumers are sourcing tangible value like when they first got their AOL CD and went on the internet, right? That's what's happening now with these personal assistant agents. Historically, governments have always picked inflation if they can, right? We've done that in the United States repeatedly. If you look at the history of the 40s and 50s postwar, financial repression. If you were to go and then look at the 70s, financial repression, right? Like every time we get into that position, we end up in

that way. And I think with debt to GDP where it is, there's a sort of counterintuitive thing that starts happening, which is if you have $30 trillion of debt outstanding, right? I will remind everybody 1% of the debt is $300 billion. If you raise rates 25 basis points, that's a lot more free cash flow in the hands of Americans given that our debt is relatively short-term and rolling quickly, right? Like there is some bizarro like inversion of thinking that happens when the debt gets big enough where rate cuts are no longer restrictive but in fact just spray more cash out as well.

>> One more thing, we've got a listener survey open. It takes just a few minutes. It's anonymous and it changes what we make next. Use the QR code on screen or go to unchained crypto.com/servey. The link is in the show notes. $540 million. That's how much concentrated liquidity sat idle in a given week in the first half of this year. About 30% of the DeFi TVL if you're wondering. That's according to Dune Research Commissioned by 1 in. But there's a solution. 1-in Aqua is the new shared liquidity platform. It lets LPS back multiple positions with the same token balance and keep their tokens in their wallet till a swap comes. Why does

that help? Because the LPS don't have to split their tokens across positions. They can cover more market conditions and pairs with their full balance. That means more activity across deeper liquidity. See how it works at 1in.com/aqua. Remember that providing liquidity carries risk and fees aren't guaranteed. Before we dive back in, a quick word about something we make ourselves. If you like the way we cover crypto on this show, cleareyed, no shilling, just what actually matters, you'll like the Unchanged Daily. It's our free newsletter that lands in your inbox every weekday with the most important stories in crypto written by journalists, not marketers. No jargon, no hype, no number go up cheerleading, just the news you need to stay ahead in

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If you hold crypto on your phone, your biggest vulnerability isn't your wallet, it's your carrier. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have been breached again and again, and SIM swaps are still one of the easiest ways for attackers to drain accounts. That's where Cape comes in. America's privacy first mobile carrier. Same premium service, but Cape rotates the identifier on your SIM every 24 hours. Hi everyone, welcome to Unchained, your no hype resource for all things crypto.

I'm your host Laura Shin. Thanks for joining this live stream and we will first take a quick word from the sponsors who make the show possible. This episode is brought to you by 1-in Aqua, the shared liquidity layer from 1 in. Back multiple liquidity positions with one wallet balance and keep your tokens in your wallet until a swap fills. See how it works at 1in.com/ aqua. Before we get started, I want to ask you for something. We're making a bunch of decisions right now about Unchained. What we make next, when we go live, what we should be doing more of, and I'd rather hear from you before we make them than after. So, we put together a survey. It takes just a few minutes.

It's anonymous, and there's a box where you can tell me what we could be doing better. I read all the responses. The link is in the show notes, or you can snap the QR code on screen, or go to unchainedcrypto.com/servey. Thanks. Today's guest is Ron Nuner, founder of Cryptobanter. Welcome, Ron. >> Laura, so good to see you. I was just saying, we were just talking in the back here and saying that uh you're one of the few people that started in crypto media around the same time that I started around 2016 2017. In fact, I think you started before me.

>> Yes. 2015 in the blockchain not Bitcoin era. >> Yeah. For those of you who don't know, Laura was actually right. You're writing for Forbes, right? In 2015. >> Yes. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Um, so we, you and I have seen it all and this morning we're in an interesting place. Um, the 10ear is at its highest since 2007 and you tweeted that you think this will bring fresh liquidity into the system. So explain what it is that you think is about to happen and um where you think this nassent crypto bull market is headed.

>> So I mean I think you said it correctly that we're in a crypto bull market. Um, I mean, if you I just want to show you one or two charts on the screen. Maybe it'll make it a little bit easier to to to digest. But we're in a crypto bull market. We have the peaks and then we have the one-year bare markets. This bare market was about 11 months. And if you kind of like dig into what caused this this um increase in the bull market, it was when Scott Bessant took on the bond market and basically said he's going to double the Treasury buybacks, right? And up until now, he's basically bought fists into a into a big fight because in order to make a dent in in the long-term treasury yields, he needs to do much more than the $4 billion or the $6 billion dollars worth

of buybacks. And so yesterday, we got two data points which basically um scared the bond market a little bit. The first data point that we got yesterday was the the is the PMI numbers which were kind of heated and so the market's worried about inflation again. And the second data point that we got was that the US was struggling to sell its 5-year Treasury yields, right? And so there's no demand for US treasuries. Now, what does a country do when there's no demand for for for its own treasuries? Well, ultimately what they do is they'll land up buying their treasuries or they land up buying their debt back themselves.

And Scott Bessant has basically come out to the market and basically said, "Look, we're going to buy our own debt. You know, we're going to we we're going to double it. We're going to triple it." And ultimately, he's got an account called the Treasury General account. There's a trillion dollars in that account which he could call on to buy back their own debt. And there many other means that they can they can deploy. The one thing you got to remember though is that Scott Bessent is a market genius and specifically a currency in and bond markets genius. He's done this for many years. He did this under George Soros uh back in the day. So, he knows exactly what he's doing. And I think he's probably engineering the ultimate short squeeze.

I think he's waiting for the bond vigilantes to pile into the longdated bonds or or to to short the longdated bonds. And then I think what he's going to do is I think he's going to create or the ultimate short squeeze by putting money into the economy. Um, and either way, I mean, I know the markets are starting to get a little bit jittery, but the reason why markets are going up is because the markets are counting on on Scott Bessant actually coming to to save the long the long data treasury yields. And the only tool that he has at his disposal is actually bringing more money to the party. So, for me, that's that's really what started this Bitcoin bull market, right? That's, you know, when Scott Besson came out and said, I'm taking on the long end of the curve, that started this Bitcoin bull market.

So, that's the the Bitcoin bull market thesis. I also think, as I said to you earlier, that we're going into crypto's first bull market. So, I mean, everyone's going to go like, not really. How can you say it's crypto's first bull market? I really think that we're going into crypto's first bull market, not Bitcoin's first bull market. We can probably break that down a bit later. >> Yeah. Well, go ahead. I mean that u so I don't know what you mean by that. So go ahead and and say >> so so let me so let me break it down for you. And I think again let's maybe just look at one or two charts just because I just I just think it paints a real picture here. So you and I have been around for for a long time. We've seen multiple Bitcoin bull markets and I

think if we go back to the bull markets I think the last bull market for Bitcoin was the first bull market where Bitcoin was actually accepted. Right? Like you could say that, you know, the the first bull markets were very small on the Bitcoin radar. This was 2017. This was 2021. This was the last bull market. And I think for those of us who've been around for a long time, Bitcoin only found real product market fit as a store of value and a a hedge against a debasement trade probably in the last in the last bull market. So that's Bitcoin. I want to show you another chart. This is the chart of ETH versus Bitcoin. And I'm just using this chart because ETH is probably the biggest altcoin and it represents all altcoins against Bitcoin.

And I think for those of us who've been here for the last 9 10 years, this is the chart. It's been a downward sloping chart. And if I were to break that down in a story, then I'd say ETH launched and had the promise of big things to come and it really outperformed Bitcoin for a very short period of time. And then we kind of realized that smart contracts don't really work. They're too slow. They're too expensive. um there's no real use case because the use case of ICOs basically died and then we tried it again in 2021 DeFi summer we tried to create this market called DeFi and we did this thing called yield farming and we used to emit tokens to get people to invest their money and that also collapsed because ETH was too slow and too expensive and practically unusable and so we were rejected again and

ultimately ETH has been been a bit of a dog against Bitcoin for quite a long time. However, if you draw a trend line here, what you'll realize is that for the first time in 9 years, we've actually broken out here. Now, let's just that's a chart, but let's break down what that story actually means. It means that for 9 years, the well, initially, the only use case for this crypto technology that we had was Bitcoin. And for 9 years, no other use case managed to create an upward trend against the use case that we created for Bitcoin until tokenization. So I think for the first time cryptos found product market fit. What is the product market fit? Well I think there's a couple of product market fits. The first one is tokenization and I think

this cycle tokenization is happening. It's happening on ETH on ETH side chains on Salana. We are using ETH as a proxy for all altcoins over here. And so I think for the first time we've got a real use case in crypto. What is the real use case in crypto? Well, I actually think there's two use cases in crypto. Before I take you there though, I want to show you one other chart. This is the chart of others. Others is the smaller altcoins against Bitcoin. Pretty much paints the same story, right? So 2017 the altcoin market runs against Bitcoin. It then gets rejected because all the altcoins are shitcoins.

2021 the same thing happens. We go up here in the excitement and then it all gets rejected. But ultimately what you can see is that is it is an upward sloping trend which means that the technology against Bitcoin is actually starting to improve. I think that in this cycle this chart does something like this. I'll show it to you. So I think that this cycle looks something like this for altcoins. Okay? I mean I I'm not going to draw it exactly but that's what it looks like. Right now, the question is, what could take the altcoin market cap to give you a 7x against Bitcoin? So, what could make altcoins outperform Bitcoin by seven times, which is, by the way, what I think is going to happen this cycle.

Now, you may say that's crazy, but if you look at the last cycle, so that's 2017, the old coins outperformed Bitcoin by 19 times. If you look at uh at 2021, and I'll draw the line for us here, the old coins outperformed Bitcoin by six times. So, it's not impossible that if we draw this line over here that we outperform Bitcoin by five or six times or seven times. So, what could cause the market to do that? And I think that there's two things that that Bitcoin found its product market fit and I think that crypto found a uh uh it its own product market fit. Bitcoin's product market fit, pretty simple. Currency

debasement trade. You want to hold scarce assets, hold Bitcoin. That's been the thesis for the last couple of cycles for crypto. There are two use cases. The first use case is what I call social trading. So what is social trading? It is imagine the world's biggest social network and the world's biggest casino having a baby. So just like imagine the world's biggest social network and the world's biggest casino having a baby. That's FOMO. That's pump fun. And yes, right now they are memecoins and stuff like that, but ultimately what these platforms have created is the ultimate investment dopamine machine. Yeah. Now,

what do I mean by that? Well, if we think about how these platforms actually work, why is Instagram and why is Twitter so successful? Because they manage to release dopamine in your brain. How do they do that? Well, dopamine is the reward, self- validation, motivation drug. So, if you do work and you get validated, it releases this drug in your in your brain called dopamine, which says you're a genius. So, if you write a nice tweet, you post a tweet, you get a lot of likes, you feel like, "Yeah, man. I'm I'm a genius." Why? Because you're getting self- validation. And that's the drug of dopamine. That's how these social networks work. They're dopamine machines, right? They've been criticized

for being dopamine machines. you do work, you post your your your you post your picture on Instagram or you post a tweet on Twitter and the dopamine just keeps running in your brain because you get the self validation of the likes. Now, how much more so when the validation is not only likes but actual money and that's what crypto's created. It's created transparent trading machines where everyone can see P&Ls and people are starting to share it. So if you look at like apps like FOMO, pump Fun, we've created a master use case in crypto which is dopamine-driven social trading. And what I think is actually going to happen if you take that and you combine that with a tokenization of everything. All of a sudden, you've got

this industry which is a combination of a casino and a social network, but instead of casino, let's call it an an investment house, an investment house with a social network. Okay, now that's a monster business. That's more powerful than any social network. And in fact, I kind of think that Elon Musk and Twitter have seen this because they're starting to incorporate trading into your Twitter and people that are testing the the Twitter buttons. And so the ultimate social network doesn't only reward you with likes, but actually rewards you with increasing net worth. And to me, that's the first use case in crypto. And it's the first time that we've had And the reason why we've had is because

we're tokenizing everything everything legally and now all P&Ls basically get bought onto chain and everything becomes a bit more transparent and so people are going to trade more because it becomes more social etc etc with people trading more I mean I think you you understand how that's more transactions more transactions means more work on blockchains etc etc so why did I say it's crypto's first real bull market because it's the first bull market where crypto applications are actually making money. Who's making money? Well, social trading apps. Who are the social trading apps? Hyperlid's making three, four, $5 million a day. Sometimes Pump Fund is making one, two, three, four, $5 million a day. That's real numbers. Even in in real world finance, businesses that are

making 100, 200, 300, 400 million, 500 million a year. That's big business, right? Um, FOMO making very similar numbers, a million dollars a day, etc. So for the first time we have a bull market in crypto because there are applications that are actually being used and actually making money. Unis swap, hyperlquid, aerodrome, uh near intense um all actually making money. And so we're seeing crypto's first real uh bull market. Another one, Venice. I mean Venice is making a ton of cash and burning a ton of tokens. So we're really seeing a bull market in crypto. So when I say a bull market, not just prices going up, but actually a bull market for usage of crypto products. So that's the first reason why I think crypto is going

to have its its aha moment. But to be honest, >> let's uh Ron, can you hold that thought? Um, hold that thought. We're going to we're going to come back to here uh with the second reason, but first we're going to take a quick word from the sponsors who make the show possible. >> All good. >> $540 million. That's how much concentrated liquidity sat idle in a given week in the first half of this year. About 30% of the DeFi TVL if you're wondering. That's according to Dune Research commissioned by 1 in. But there's a solution. 1-in Aqua is the new shared liquidity platform. It lets LPS back multiple positions with the same token balance and keep their tokens in

their wallet till a swap comes. Why does that help? Because the LPS don't have to split their tokens across positions. They can cover more market conditions and pairs with their full balance. That means more activity across deeper liquidity. See how it works at 1in.com/aqua. Remember that providing liquidity carries risk and fees aren't guaranteed. One more thing, we've got a listener survey open. It takes just a few minutes. It's anonymous and it changes what we make next. Use the QR code on screen or go to unchainedcrypto.com/servey.

The link is in the show notes. back to my conversation with Ron. So Ron, you were gonna give us your second reason for why we're in a uh in crypto's first real bull bull market. >> Yes. The first reason is I think social trading and to be honest again I'm going to take you back to the chart just because to me the charts paint nice pictures that we can talk around but I guess that that doesn't take you from there all the way to there you know like and just I want to give you an idea of how big this number is right if you assume if you go to back to Bitcoin and you say well in the first bull market Bitcoin did 20 22x in the second market it did an 18x in the third market did a 7x let's just assume that in this bull

market bitcoin does a 3x X or a 4x just just for fun, right? Let's say a 4x. Okay, a 4x from the bottom $250,000 Bitcoin. So, if Bitcoin does a 4x from where we are today, and altcoins do a a se a 5x what Bitcoin does, you're talking about a a a 20x in market cap. So, we're talking about a $30 trillion market cap. Okay? So, the the social trading thesis doesn't give you a $30 trillion market cap. Impossible.

So then the question is what does? And Laura, I don't know about you, but making content during the last couple of months has been like one of the hardest things I've ever done in my entire life. I don't know if you felt the same way, but the market wasn't moving. We had to make content. I made content every single day. It broke me because from February to August, Bitcoin was in a range of $60 to $70,000. And I had to try and make it exciting every single day, but ultimately it was really, really, really boring. And I got to a point about here, about July, where I was done. When I say I was done, I was

never going to give up because I've been here for so long. But I just hated this place. And at that point, I tweeted something. And I hope that I've got the tweet. I said, the tweet says, "Here's what you're not seeing. All asset markets will be 24/7 365. All markets will be settled on chain immediately. Humans won't be trading them. Instead, it will be 100 billion agents trading at a frequency that we can't even imagine. And all those fees will be captured by crypto protocols. And that was in the pitch the pits of the bare market. And I think that writing that tweet kind of got me so excited about crypto again because what I realized was that we're living in an AI revolution. And up until now, what if you look at this chart,

this is a chart of the AI NASDAQ, in other words, stocks in the NASDAQ that are AI against crypto, which went down from 1010. So AI just continued to go up and crypto went down. Up until now, the market has been funding infrastructure to power AI. What is that infrastructure? Well, it is data centers, it is energy, it is it is chips, it is buildouts, it is frontier labs to write models, right? That's what the market has been funding, right? And that drove the NASDAQ as high as the NASDAQ is. And I'm using the NASDAQ as a proxy for I'm using the NASDAQ as a proxy for AI development, but it's the

NASDAQ, it's the Cosby, it's it's it's any market that is AI ready. So all that while crypto was bleeding was the infrastructure so that we could have AI. Okay. Now question when we have AI what's AI going to do? AI is going to be a bunch of agents and those agents are going to be transacting. Simple as that. So all this infrastructure that has been built is so that we could all have agents and that the agents could be transacting. So you ask yourself well okay how many agents is it? So, I've read a couple of studies. This is one. This one says they're going to be there's going to be 1 billion agents by 2029. Okay, this is one study. There's many others. I would

say there's probably going to be much more than that, but a billion agents by 2029. The entire human workforce today is 3.3 billion people. They're talking about adding a billion agents by 2029. The only difference between the agents and the humans is that the average human doesn't even do one internet transaction a day. And these agents are going to be executing 217 billion transactions a day. Okay? And that's in 2029. Now, yesterday Black Rockck came out of the report. And in the Black Rockck report, this is not a a dummy report. It was written by Black Rockck. And in that report, they say two things. They say the rise of agentic AI and

machine-to-achine payments will likely increase demand for blockchains and other programmable payment infrastructure, stable coins, native crypto assets, etc. existing rails such as a card networks blah blah blah um make them less suited to to always on very low value transactions requiring pro programmic execution. So what did black rockck basically say? They said there's going to be a billion agents in 2027. They said the billion agents are going to be doing 217 billion transactions a day and those transactions are going to be settled on blockchain rails because traditional existing rails like a just aren't relevant for those kind of transactions.

And then you say, okay, what's going to capture that value? Layer ones, hedging mechanisms, dexes, because they're going to be trading in and out of different tokens. And then you start thinking to yourself, hold on a second, maybe this chart is actually conservative. Maybe maybe the altcoins actually outperform Bitcoin by 50x. Why? Because whenever you use a protocol, ask yourself a question. Could an AI and wool an AI actually use this protocol? Salana. Yeah, Salana could AI could use Salana Hyperlquid. Yeah, AI could use Hyperlquid. Near intense, yeah, AI could use near intense. And then you start thinking to yourself, hold on a second.

If these numbers are true, and I mean they should be true because I actually think that we'll have much more than a billion agents in 2029 and you say that maybe this number is wrong. Maybe it won't be 217 billion transactions a day. Maybe it's only 20 billion transactions a day. Let's just say and let's just say that there really isn't another viable payment mechanism other than blockchain. are, but it comes with bank accounts and prepaid cards and giving each agent a prepaid debit card so that they can do microtransactions with one another doesn't really feel like the way the future's going to work. And then you kind of say to yourself, hold on, it, you know, as a crypto guy, my thesis was always that this is going to happen. And

that's why I tweeted that tweet at the end of July. But since then, I've been trying to find someone to disprove my thesis. I went to conferences uh I asked bankers like what's going to happen how is this all going to happen and everyone's gave me a like everyone gave me different versions of how AI agents will transact and none of them are are better than blockchain and then yesterday I see the report from from Black Rockck and I'm like holy moly maybe maybe the thesis is actually right and if the thesis is actually right then what we're talking about is we're actually talking about the difference between you know not having electricity and social media, you know, like that's how big the revolution is here.

Like like that's that's how crazy the revolution is. And that's when I saw that I was like like I don't think we can comprehend how big this bull market is actually going to be. And it's a real bull market. And the reason why I know it's a real bull market because I already have like 10 AI agents working for me. I've got a Grockbot and I've got multiple Grock bots doing multiple things for me. And sometimes I just wish that they could transact on my behalf. I mean, right now to be honest, my AI agents are not really transacting on my behalf, even though one or two of them do have trading MCPs, but um but they're not really trading, they're not really transacting, but suffice to say by 2029, which is two and a half years away or two years away, uh I think that agents

will be transacting. And then ask yourself, what are they going to be using? And then ask yourself if you're actually invested in those protocols. And if you're not, then you know the the as R Paul says, he says the the total addressable market becomes almost infinite because it's just more and more agents just just springing up. >> Yeah. Yeah. This um this I love this thesis. It makes a lot of sense to me. Um in a way it it well I personally think it's super obvious. Um, so but the one thing that I did want to ask you about was at the beginning of your thesis I thought you were going to go in a totally different direction. Uh, because you were talking about RWAS and you had that like chart about ETH. So,

um, I'm curious to hear. So basically like where I thought you were going is I thought you were going to say that this is the first time that blockchains are being used for the back end of finance and the you know financial markets are so much bigger than the crypto markets and so you know like you I'm sure you've heard that thesis before um and then you you ended up with like this whole other area which is that you know crypto is creating a new beast um that is it's creating its own market you know crypto and social. Um, and so, so that took a turn that I wasn't expecting. So, I'm just curious to hear like, um, you know, do you also think that RWA's um, and the

dopamine machine are going to be part of this first real bull market or do you feel like the social aspect is going to dwarf this kind of thing that we're seeing with RWAs? >> So, RWAs are the equivalent of in the old days taking magazines and putting magazines on the internet. So if you think about like all they did was they took >> this was my job my first job in journalism. >> Yes. So I mean if you think about what RWAs are what we're saying is let's take the existing financial system and let's just migrate it onto the the better system and it and you know and then we created things like being able to share something and then we we created things like being able to make things interactive and then we that eventually transformed into social media. Right? So

I think the first step is taking the magazines and putting them onto the internet. Um and that's what I think RWAS are. We call them real world assets. It's just the migration of traditional assets onto blockchain rails. And that's step one. And then you know once we do that um and the the the old financial system is working on new rails just like in the old days when Forbes went from paper to be becoming online and slowly slowly the Forbes you know the the readership of the paper just died down um and then you know everything evolved. I think the same thing is going to happen with real world assets. So if you think about Robin Hood Robin Hood has been trying to do social trading for a long time. It Toro has been trying to do social trading for a long time, but they've been limited.

Like, they've been limited by NASDAQ hours for one. They've been limited by NASDAQ KYC rules for two. You know, it's just not a great experience for so for social trading. You know, now you can tokenize any stock that you want. It trades 24/7, 365. It just makes much more for social trading. So, and when I say social trading, social trading is merely the act of being able to share your trades and others being able to see all trades and decide whether they want to follow it or not. So, I think that that's pretty obvious. I think in the new age, social trading is going to be the only way that we trade. I think most trades are going to be transparent.

People are going to see what's going on. Uh you're going to be allowed to follow or not follow, etc., etc. Um, and ultimately, I think that's what's going to happen. I actually believe >> Okay. Okay, finish. And then I have a question. >> I believe that crypto exchanges are going to be replaced by social trading apps. So I think like a Binance will eventually be be replaced by social trading app like a like a FOMO. And I'm not saying it's going to be FOMO replacing Binance. I'm saying there's going to be a version of FOMO that's going to be so powerful that is so much fun because it combines a social network with a trading experience. And when that happens, it's going to be just much more fun than trading on an exchange. already FOMO is more fun than trading on an exchange,

>> you know. >> Well, okay. But I have a question because obviously I'm sure you're seeing this whole privacy meta that's taking off and just all these privacy coins are pumping. So, how does the social trading square with the privacy trend? >> So, um I think they're two different use cases. I think you have a right to privacy specifically when it comes to your own money, etc., etc. I think when we actually in the old days when we signed up for Bitcoin, we thought that we were getting privacy. What we didn't realize is that that we thought because it was an address and we didn't KYC back in the day, we thought that was privacy.

And we very fast realized that ultimately those addresses are all going to be tracked. Um, and so I think that the right to privacy is going to be cool, but um, I have the right to privacy in my personal affairs too, but yet I choose to post most of it on social media anyway, right? I have the right to privacy, but and so do you. But we both have Instagram accounts, so I'm assuming you have an Instagram account. I have an Instagram account. I share probably a lot too much on my Instagram account. And you know why we do that? >> I don't share anything. >> Oh, you know why most people do that? Because they need the social validation, right? Because it's actually a massive part of how the brain functions. The brain works on dopamine. It's one of the four uh uh u key components that your

bone your body needs for happiness. like you need dop dopamine, oxytocin, serotin and endorphins, right? So, you need to get your daily fix. Now, dopamine is the most powerful of all of them because it's the most addictive of all of them. Um, and that's why people do what they do. So, I think there's a massive market for real world assets are going to be amazing. Real world assets trading socially are going to be even more amazing. Real world assets and not and digital assets all trading uh uh virtually are going to be crazy. Now, let me give you two more use cases which I don't think we're we're so AI agents creating their own businesses, starting their own businesses, creating their own businesses using their own compute power as collateral. I mean, I don't know if

you ever thought about that, but like what is the only asset that an AI agent has? It's compute power. And so, the AI agent may say, look, if I default on my loan, then you could have my compute. Okay, I'm just giving you an example of things that could happen without any human intervention. I'll give you another example of things that we haven't yet factored very well. Uh what's the time where you are right now? >> 11:00 a.m. >> Okay. Where I am, it's 5:00 p.m. What date are you are you also 24th of September? You are right. >> But very soon I'm going to be on the 25th and you're going to be on the 24th, right?

>> Yep. >> Okay. That's that's how humans account for time. AI agents are going to need a different way to account for time. And they don't need it to repeat. They don't need a morning 8:00 every morning. They don't need to be reminded to wake up every morning when the sun rises. Right? I actually believe that AI agents are going to use blockchain blocks as settlement as time. So, I think we're not going I think when we talk about AI agents, we're not going to talk about what date and what time. We're just going to say it's block 16742. That's the block. Um, and when when is the loan repayable? The loan is repayable in block 9,9 billion, 9 trillion, whatever the block is. And >> yeah, I mean this is how this is how crypto devs figure out like you know Ethereum devs that's how they figure out

when they'll do upgrades. >> Yeah. I also think to be honest I also think to be honest um there's going to be I don't know who it is but there's going to be a blockchain that actually becomes the time blockchain. And why why I say that is because if you think about finance and you think about a transaction that involves Bitcoin collateral trading on the Salana network but settling on Suei somehow or Ethereum or whatever, every one of those has got a different block time. And so I think I think I don't know how how it's going to work. It's it's too far ahead for me. But I think what's going to happen is we're going to find a a blockchain that basically says I'm the time blockchain and all I do is I sell time to all the other blockchains. I and again it's an

idea. I don't think anyone I haven't seen anyone actually really exploring it, but I think, you know, instinctively I just think that AI agents aren't going to use secular clocks. I think they're going to use blockchain. So, I kind >> it needs to be a chain that has like a like the smallest block time. >> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. So, yeah. I mean, again, like these are all ideas, but I think the one thing I know for sure is that we found product market fit. Our applications are actually making money. they're being used and they're actually making money and they fun. It's for the It's the first time this cycle. It's the first time that I've had fun on crypto rails. When I use Venice and I get the answers from my from my LLM model and I'm and I know I'm not giving my data to to to the big boys

um and I've got my privacy for me. That's fun. When I trade on Hyperlquid and I'm in that dopamine casino of trading perpetuals on real world assets over the weekend, it's fun and it works. And it's the first time that I felt this way about crypto. Yes, in the previous cycles, we could trade things on unis swap, but that wasn't fun. Tra swapping ETH for another for compound or or something like that on the on or or for a on the unis swap network was not fun. It was just a >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'm sure my audience knows like I I'm not a trader. Um, and obviously I've just been covering this as a journalist, but like whenever I

tried to use crypto in the past, like it just it was really challenging for me, you know. Um, and yeah, like nowadays it's it's just night and day. >> Um, so actually I wanted I wanted to go back to something earlier earlier on that uh you were talking so I just kind of want to tie it back to the beginning. um like essentially one of the main um theories that's been powering interest in crypto for so so long has been this debasement hedge thesis. But it almost feels like you're saying that you feel like um you you feel like real world adoption is going to like just outperform the debasement hedge thesis.

Is that what you're saying? >> The debasement hedge thesis validates our technology. The technology is that you can transfer that you can create a scarce asset and you can transfer it at the speed of data across networks. That was Bitcoin. That was the debasement. We've we've got that asset and that asset is Bitcoin. Okay. But we there's also an entirely new world of assets that can happen when you make that programmable or when you make versions of that programmable, right? So like smart when you when you combine the smart contracts and to be honest they haven't been interesting for a long time because the smart contracts didn't work and we couldn't find a product market fit. Now we found two product market fits in the same cycle for those smart

contracts. The first one is like I say tokenize everything and make it social. And the second one is let the AI agents with with without this kind of technology the AI agents are pretty screwed because they can't transact. They can transact each other, but it's just slow and monotonous and they the contracts. How are you going to define the contracts between two agents that don't know each other? You need a smart contract. If you if you pay me 0, 01 ETH or 0, 00001 ETH and I make an API call and you return the API call, then the then the funds will settle immediately. Now I mean I suppose you could give every agent a prepaid PayPal debit card or something like that except when a Chinese agent meets a I don't

know Indian agent or or US agent. I think it becomes a little bit messy. Um because they start going uh sorry I don't accept your money and you don't accept my money or they could just accept blockchain money go to unis swap and swap whatever money they just received for whatever money they their owner wants them to bank and that takes less than a split second. And so it like becomes so exciting because I don't think the rest of the world sees this or at least I didn't until Black Rockck actually published a report yesterday and kind of said well you know the old rails are dead and the new rails are are crypto rails and agents are going to use crypto rails and then you realize I don't know for me it was such a moment because I've been here for so many years

and I always sold myself the dream of Bitcoin and how it's a scarce asset and there were periods where gold outperformed and bitcoin didn't perform and the NASDAQ outperformed and bitcoin didn't perform and it was so tempting to lose faith in the thesis and then you eventually after being here for I don't know 12 years 13 years and fighting for a acceptance but b also like just fighting rugps and ideas and VC scams and sometimes not VC scams but sometimes VC projects that had best intentions but couldn't find product market fit and then just finally finally finding the product market fit and realizing that the product market fit that we found is

the biggest product market fit so far of all time in the world. Like you'd say that AI is the culmination of everything that the world's gone through for it's intelligence. It's creating intelligence out of nothing, out of electricity. It's the biggest prize in the world. And to think that the rails for all the transactions are probably going to be on the on this blockchain technology that we've been fighting for ever since we were like we were like rats crawling around conferences in dark places because we we weren't really supposed to be talking about it. You know what I mean? It was like it's just so cool to to finally get vindicated like that.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Um well, okay. So, I do have one last question. um because you're you keep talking about AI and obviously I do agree with you that AI is what supercharges the crypto thesis um but you know just in the short term obviously we have these big AI IPOs that are coming up so just like from a markets perspective how do you think those AI IPOs will affect interest in crypto and the crypto markets generally >> so I think that there's two theories about it one of them is they're going to suck out all the liquidity from the markets and that the rest of the markets are going to crash. I don't really think that's going to happen. I think the AI IPOs are going to be pretty successful.

Let's just say that one of the frontier labs isn't that successful. I don't know whether it's open AI or anthropic even though I mean seems they are going to be pretty good, but let's just say they're not. There's so much demand for AI. Now, I want to say that I was around for the com bubble and I would say that the com bubble wasn't really an internet bull run because there was no real demand for internet. Hardly even worked. It was a bull run like the 2017 crypto bull market where it was on the promise of what this technology may one day achieve. The difference between that and AI is that AI is actually achieving today. Right? So in 2001 I think I could live without most these applic I could live without pest.com in

2001. Like I could live without it because it wasn't working. It never delivered one pet or one pet food to my house ever. It didn't work. I don't know if I could go back to a time of living without AI. Like everything I do, all my research is done on AI. Uh all my accounts are done on AI, tax returns are done on AI, like like I don't really know how to go back. And so so the difference is that there's so much demand for the actual service that even if the frontier labs don't do well, the open source models will just consume all the power, all the electricity, all the credits, everything else. Right? There's just we don't have enough energy. It's simple. We just don't have enough energy to power the supply of this AI. Like, we just don't. And that's before AI agents

start their own businesses without us. I mean, you know, there's going to be a world very soon where an AI agent has an idea. It's going to start a business. It's going to go and raise funding. It's going to use that funding itself, and it's going to build a business. Um, I I don't think we've factored in for that yet because I think we're too busy asking chat GPT uh what time the football match is later tonight and uh whether when your tax returns are due and you know like I don't think we've factored in for a world where these AI agents go hold on I'm busy. I'm starting a business and I'll let you know when I'm revenue positive. Um >> yeah.

>> Yeah. >> Um Ron, this has been amazing. I'm so glad that you reached out and you were so prepared with your with all your charts and everything. Um, yeah, I just loved hearing your thesis and I agree on so many levels. I guess I just never thought to put it into something uh yeah, that was presentable like that. But um yeah, I guess like I said, the only thing that I'm wondering about is just the privacy thing. So, but maybe privacy will exist at the same time we have social trading. Like social trading will exist for certain assets. And then >> yeah, I think also I think also like sometimes you're going to show some some of your trades, not all of your trades.

I think you're also going to have some money that you show and some money that you don't show, you know, like I think I think that there's two different streams and both of them have a use case. Like trading RWAs transparently on on online has has one one use case and storing private transactions has another use case. I've invested in both. Um, you know, I've invested in both. I've got Zcash bags and I've got Canton bags and I've got ETH bags. So, I've kind of in invested in in in all. I do say one thing. I'm watching Zcash and it reminds me so much of Bitcoin back in 2016 and 17. It's the same people. It's the same kind of movement. It's the same price moves. Like, I remember when Bitcoin went above $1,000, how quickly it went

to $1,500. And that's exactly what happened with Zcash. Like it's it was at 600 and it's like 700 and then like 800 and then it went through a thousand and then like within two weeks it was at 1,500. And I it's deja vu because I remember the old Bitcoin days and I'm just waiting for it to go back down to 700 and everyone to get scared and then it'll just go back up to 2,000 because that's what Bitcoin did to us in the old days. And it was the same faces. Like I saw the Vinklevos brothers are speaking at token 2049 and they're speaking about Zcash. I was like, "Wow, I I swear I've got a a similar leaflet from 2016 or 2015 or whenever it was of them speaking about Bitcoin at some conference." And so like

for me, Zcash and the whole privacy around Zcash is super super super interesting. I think it's more useful than Bitcoin. I know you're not supposed to say that because Bitcoin is the king of coins, but there's a better use case for Zcash than there is for Bitcoin. You know, private money is much more valuable than public than transparent money that everyone can see transaction history, right? So, I know you're not supposed to say that Zcash is maybe a little bit more interesting than Bitcoin, but can't help thinking it. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, that makes sense. Um, yeah. But Bitcoin being the OG, it will always have a very special place in my heart. like >> mine too, which is why I can never sell Bitcoin to buy Zcash. But >> but it's such an emotional thing because

on a on a logical level, if someone said to you, "Hold on, you got the two technologies are pretty similar." I mean, obviously the one has much bigger network effect because it's much older, but the one has privacy and the one doesn't. Even if you want it, you're like, "Yeah, you know, if the one gives you the option and the other one doesn't, and you know, it's the same 21 million coins." Wow, it's quite hard to to not to not want to take some of your Bitcoin and put them into Zcash. >> Yeah, I mean, there's been so much chatter about Bitcoin getting privacy. I wonder what will happen with that. I know the community doesn't um move quickly when it comes to change. And so, we'll see how they handle both the quantum issue, but also now uh the fact that Zcash

um is essentially Bitcoin with added features. um >> it's quantum resistant or it will be with the next upgrade and it uh and it's private. And I think that those are are Bitcoin's two of Bitcoin's biggest challenges, right? Like the quantum threat around Bitcoin is I mean it's if quantum is real, then the quantum threat is pretty real. Um and I think quantum is real, but the question is it's real, but is it real in 2030 or 2040? You know, that's I think what the question is. uh and whether the but I've seen firsthand how difficult it is to mobilize the devs. There was that recent Bitcoin debacle um with Luke Dash Jr. uh trying to split the blocks, BIP 110, I think it was

called, or something like that. >> 110 >> BIP 110. And that kind of showed you how slow and difficult it is to move Bitcoin. Now, don't get me wrong, that is one of the one of its biggest features. uh the fact that the earth rotates around the sun um exactly the same every single year or or with with minimal movement is is one of the biggest features except when an asteroid is heading for the earth. And then you want the earth to be able to move slightly. And the problem with Bitcoin is that I don't see panic. Okay, maybe we shouldn't be panicking, but we should be on high alert about the fact that quantum is a real thing because it actually is a real threat. It's a the question not it's not if it's when is it

going to be 2030 2040 2035. >> So >> yeah, but I yeah I wouldn't even say that. I would say um like it I would say it's definitely going to happen. So it doesn't matter when. Just work on it now. Um but one other thing is I don't agree about the BIP 110. um because to my mind he just wanted to introduce censorship to the network and that's there's something so like antithetical to the Bitcoin ethos about that. So I actually feel like the fact that the community didn't move is just a reflection that what he was trying to do was sort of out of alignment with the Bitcoin ethos.

>> So but I but I view the quantum thing as totally different. I view it as this is real. It's going to happen. It doesn't matter when. we should work on it now because um you know there's a lot of decisions that have to be made before we can actually implement a change that will protect Bitcoin. And so you know you need to like bake in the time for all those decisions and like looking at all the options and you the community deciding and blah blah blah. And so um yeah I I view it like super different from 110 because I I just don't think that agree >> was ever going to be in alignment with the with the community. I agree. But or you can just invest in Zcash, which is quantum resistant and private, and not have to worry about it. And I mean, I

say that I say that like my biggest bag is Bitcoin, just for the record. So, my biggest bag is Bitcoin. Zcash is my second biggest bag. >> And and every time I look at my >> every time I look at the the two, I'm like, >> I know I should hold more Zcash than Bitcoin, but I just can't because Bitcoin is the king and it's got a special place in my heart. And I fought so hard. I was part of the movement to get it here and it's got amazing network effects. And then I'm like, but Zcash is so much better. It's it's just it's so much better. It's cheaper. It's it's quantum resistant. It's private. Um >> I mean Okay. Yeah. But what about the issue the security issue like you know what happened with the orchard pool?

Like do you you feel sufficient? I mean the likelihood is that yeah nothing it wasn't exploited. >> It doesn't matter. >> It doesn't matter now and I'll tell you why. Because number one, they fixed it. They for number one, we got to assume that they caught it. We we can assume that they caught it before anything happened. >> I mean, yeah, it seems likely, but it's like impossible to be 100% sure. >> Let's say that people have had the time to remove their their their shielded Zcash from the orchard pools, the new pool, and they they moved it out in an orderly way, and it doesn't feel like there's a scramble for the doors where there's a whole lot of extra minted Zcash and, you know, in the new pool and with the new upgrade that can never happen again. So, we now know exactly

how many are in the shielded pool, right, at all times because of the because they're using ZK, they're using zero knowledge proofs to actually show us how many are in the pool. So, that was a a patch that fixed that bug forever. So, even if the orchard pool had extra minted Zcash, they can never come out of the orchard pool because only the amount that went in can actually come out. Um, so it can never happen. And the new pool actually tells you, the new technology actually tells you exactly how many there are. So that can't happen again. Now, can something else happen again? Maybe. And and and that's the only thing stopping me from putting all my Bitcoin into Zcash.

>> Okay. Interesting. All right. Well, Ron, it's been so great catching up with you. I loved hearing your thesis. Um I agree with a lot of it. Um, so yeah, thank you so much for sharing it with Unchained. >> Great. Let's do it again soon. >> Yes. All right, everyone. Thanks for joining this live stream. We will catch you next week. Bye now. Nothing you hear on Unchained is investment advice. This show is forformational and entertainment purposes only, and my guest and I may hold assets discussed on the show. For more disclosures, visit unchainedcrypto.com.