Rajat Soni on MicroStrategy as a Bitcoin proxy

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily crypto show that's like the sports center for nerds we bring you the highlights from crypto each and every day I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by rat Sony who has worked in finance for over 10 years and has gone full on crypto he is the Bitcoin guy on crypto in today's episode we're going to talk about rat's predictions for bitcoin price in this cycle we're going to look at supply and demand we're going to look at some ta we're going to see where we now where we think we're going then we're also going to talk about why reat believes that micro strategy is one of the best proxies or beta plays to investing in Bitcoin we're going to explain micro

strategy their 42 billion plan to buy even more Bitcoin and so much more before we jump in guys I am so excited to tell you about our new free crypto investing guide that we have made if you have not seen this you've got to check it out if you're listening on YouTube click the uh hit the Q R code you can see on screen right now if you're on the podcast go down to the show notes this is a free crypto investing guide about how to build and manage your portfolio whether you've been investing in crypto for decades or whether you're brand new this is going to help you succeed in this cycle and make sure that you take profits make money and don't get wrecked because it is so easy to do well in crypto but it is also so easy to not do

so well so we want to make sure you guys do well that's why we wrote this guy shout out to the team team who created it also got to take a minute to hear from our sponsors who make the show possible whether you're bullish or bearish on micro strategy T-Rex ETFs are your gateway to Dynamic Marketplace get exclusive access to leverag exposures with the first two times short or two times long ETFs designed specifically for micro strategy stock position yourself with Precision with T-Rex you gain access to powerful tools for sophisticated [Music] investors meet uphold a trading platform

that's changing the way you think about money imagine this earning up to 4.9% apy on your us no catches no lockup periods and no fees and yes it's FDIC insured up to $2.5 million they offer access to over 300 digital assets which you can trade store and exchange with confidence knowing uphold operates with a 100% reserve and a transparent model create your account fund it with a few Taps and you're ready to go click the link in the description and join uphold today rette welcome to the mil Road show thank you so much for having me I

appreciate it yeah very excited to have you okay let's start off with Bitcoin is so close to all-time highs although we've we've had a little bit of dip this morning as we record um where do you think we're at right now with Bitcoin price what are you seeing when we look at the charts I actually think that we're going to start going up pretty pretty quickly now um we got through so at the top there I see the line that you have there the resistance and then you have a support at the bottom so the resistance is basically where people are selling hard and then the support is where people are are buying hard so what they're doing is they're I guess a lot of people have the same in mind I had the exact you showed me this and I had

the exact same graphic on my end so so I me I'm sure it's widely known but the fact that Bitcoin has gotten through the the res the resistance at the top the it's a it's an eight-month resistance so what what that means is people whenever the price goes to that point people are start sell starting to sell whenever the price goes to the bottom people are starting to buy that's the support So in this case we finally broke through that resistance meaning that there's no more Bitcoin available under that line at the top M so what happens is bitcoin's prices breaks through and it starts going up because at this point we're in price Discovery so price Discovery is essentially where people are just trying to decide what the equilibrium price of Bitcoin should be and they're using just the markets the free market mechanisms

that we have to to discover what that should be where it should be going and it seems like the price is starting to head up yeah you can really see that we have broken out of this wedge pattern that we've been in for as you said eight months and it's funny when you look back uh to the Past cycle the same thing happened where we were in a wedge pattern uh we were in a wedge pattern for a while and then we finally broke out and that's when we broke out from like the 20,000 and we got all the way up to the 60 69,000 in that one parabolic move that we made let's look at um the Bitcoin Supply it's very

interesting to look at it and you we were looking at a spreadsheet that you made uh I'm going to bring this spreadsheet up on the screen in just a second here um and for those listening on the podcast we'll make sure we explain it but when you look at the one of the most interesting aspects of Bitcoin is obviously the way that the supply is managed you know we have governments that are inflating our currencies constantly by printing more Supply and Bitcoin has a CT Supply when you look at the Bitcoin Supply schedule what what do you see what's stands out to you here so the I'll explain what the what this the schedule is first of all so the first uh column A is the epoch so that's the I guess the you can almost

call it bitcoin's age so Bitcoin ages in fouryear Cycles it has uh each each of these Epoch is 210,000 blocks so we can see here EPO one was 210,000 Epoch Epoch 2 was 210,000 three four five six so right now we're at around I believe 860,000 870,000 or so I actually don't know which block we're on but somewhere along those lines but each of these each of these epochs represents 210,000 blocks during each block a certain amount of Bitcoin is produced and over time the amount of Bitcoin being produced is decreasing so we can see here in the first Epoch there were 7200 Bitcoin produced per day in the second

Epoch there were 3600 third Epoch 1,800 today there's only 450 Bitcoin being produced per day in total I I'm sure your audience know this knows this but the the total maximum supply for Bitcoin is just under 21 million Bitcoin so uh if we if we scroll all the way down we're going to see that number being reached in around 2140 I mean there's no guarantees sometimes blocks are faster if more and more hashing Powers contributed to the network maybe this will be 2136 maybe maybe this will just be moved ahead by four years but the point here is that eventually there's going to be just under uh just under 21 million Bitcoin so if we go back up here we can see here

that the inflation rate for Bitcoin is decreasing so every cycle there's a certain amount of Bitcoin added in the first cycle there were 10.5 million 5.25 uh 5.25 million 2.625 million in this cycle in the current cycle we're going to see 66250 Bitcoin being produced and at this point uh on April 19th 2024 there were 94% of the supply so 94% of the supply of Bitcoin was already produced and added to the circulating economy so every single year we see here that the inflation rate keeps decreasing so in the first cycle 100% of the supply was created so 10.5 million that was the total Supply that was available in the second cycle 33% in the third cycle 14%

of the cycle of the supply was created in the fifth cycle 6% of the total so what I'm what I'm saying here is 100 so in this case 100% of the total circulating Supply was created in this cycle in the current cycle we are only going to have 3.22 five% of the total circulating Supply created within this this four fouryear period so at the end of this fouryear period 3.22% of the total Supply will have been created and over time we're seeing this decrease and decrease and what this means is because there's there's less and less Bitcoin being created but demand keeps Rising what this means is that people have

to get they have to convince other people to sell their Bitcoin in order for them to get exposure to it so let's say black rock wants to acquire uh 100,000 Bitcoin they can't just produce it out of thin air right they can't just create Bitcoin out of thin air and add it to their wallets right that's not possible but I mean in The Current financial system that is possible if there's demand for Fiat then that Fiat will will be created out of thin air and it'll be added to the economy so what we're seeing here is because more and more people want Bitcoin but the supply isn't changing the the amount of Bitcoin being produced every 10 minutes isn't changing unless it's based on what the protocol wants to create it doesn't

matter what the demand is it doesn't matter how many people want Bitcoin it doesn't matter how much Bitcoin Black Rock Fidelity all these institutions want all that matters is that the protocol rules are being satisfied and and that's the only that's the only thing that's relevant here so over time what we're seeing is that less and less Bitcoin are being produced every single day demand is increasing so I mean there's the only explanation that I can that I can give here is that the price is going to go up right that's the only thing that can change right yeah if you have uh a decreasing Supply and as you said I should say a decreasing Supply you have a supply cap but the amount of Supply becoming available within each Epoch within each fouryear period period is

much lower as you said within this foure period that we're in right now we have a 3.2% inflation rate of Bitcoin but if the demand is greater than that 3.2% inflation rate which with the addition of the Bitcoin ETF with the addition of more and more Bitcoin just catching onto h a trend of more institutions and nation states and Retail investors uh wanting to buy it then the demand's higher well simple Supply demand mechanics at play the price will go higher the other thing I think that you mentioned that was interesting here is that yeah 90 almost 94% of Bitcoin has already been mined so we're actually very close to that 100%

Supply however because of the having because of the way that the supply is mined it's still going to take another approximately hundred years before we get to 100% of the supply can you explain how now how come one thing that I'm I'm having trouble wrapping my head around I don't know if you know the answer to this is the the Bitcoin ETF is doing so well right now especially these past I mean the other day there was almost a billion dollars in inflows in the ETF it's up up around 23 or even maybe it's hit 24 billion uh in net inflows already why has the Bitcoin price not going up more when so many of the ETFs are buying do you

know uh the way that I see it the way that I the way that I think of it is people have this notion in their mind that bitcoin's price probably won't go past 69,000 70,000 they think that uh the last all-time high is going to be this alltime high as well so what they're doing is they're just getting rid of as much Bitcoin as they can I think there's uh I I was reading something where they were saying where the person was saying how during the beginning of a bull market a lot of whales will sell they'll get rid of their Bitcoin because I mean I it makes sense to me I think a lot of people do get lucky with Bitcoin they just buy Bitcoin they have no idea what it is so the reason why I want to show this is if we go to the uh the the top in

2021 bitcoin's price was barely there for like an hour two hours maybe I don't know exactly how long it was there for but if you look at the wick at the top there in in uh 2021 bitcoin's price was barely at that level above 60,000 for a very long time I I think it barely even closed above $60,000 if we go to like the daily or weekly chart it barely closed right above that level but now we're just moving sideways now bitcoin's prices has settled people have this people are starting to believe that yes this is the price of Bitcoin back then people didn't believe that they just it got to that point because of hype it got to that point because people were just It Was Fear and it was greed right that

that's pretty much it people had a fear of missing out and they had the greed of wanting to make more money and then they took on tons of Leverage they put all of that money into Bitcoin and of course we saw that massive Wick where bitcoin's prices went crazy right and and like I said now if we if we move over back over to 2024 we see the price is actually just moving sideways in that range where in 2021 people thought it was a gamble today people are buying Bitcoin for their long-term savings at that price so the way that I see it just circling back the reason why uh the ETFs are buying so much Bitcoin but the price doesn't seem to be moving is because there are people who bought back then people who are trading they're willing to get rid of

their Bitcoin people who bought way before that people who have thousands of Bitcoin and they don't need all of it they want to maybe they want to sell some maybe they don't quite understand what they have they're selling it and these ETFs are able to buy it that's that's pretty much it right because eventually like like I said we're going to go into price Discovery and at that point because there's so much Bitcoin available between those bands between the two the support and resistance because there's so much Bitcoin available there now that Bitcoin is gone now we can't find Bitcoin between those bands now Bitcoin for for Bitcoin to go back to those the price for the price to go back between those levels there's going to have to be a ton of Supply that comes into the economy and who knows what happens maybe for all

we know uh Satoshi starts selling and we go back down and and what happens and what happens there is maybe we go below the support yeah right I mean ifct yeah I see yeah I mean that's a comment that zenica made on yesterday's show was um the there's two Black Swan events that could happen for Bitcoin however unlikely they might seem which is one is Satoshi has tremendous amounts of Supply so if all of a sudden that Supply was unlocked and came onto the market uh or micro strategy would be the other one if micro strategy ever sold started selling Bitcoin which it's never done so uh hopefully that will continue but those

could be two Black Swan events but outside of that the there is no more Supply not enough to satisfy the demand and as you said we're in a point right now where there is still sellers because there is still those who believe there's a lot of people who invested very early and who are taking profits right now and who are thinking hey we've been ranging for a while I don't know if they're we're going to get to that 100K Mark um so I'm sad satisfied to sell right now but at the same time there's also a lot of demand as we can see as a result of the ETF and just demand across the board to buy Bitcoin uh and that is that is what is keeping us within this range and I think we're close to we're close to

being out of Supply at this price is what I feel and I think you feel the same way um okay I want to talk about micro strategy uh because micro strategy is as you said uh yourself you know you you invest in your investment within crypto is focused on bitcoin and micro strategy and micro strategy is a very interesting beta play or proxy to bitcoin for those people who don't really I think everybody knows micro strategy they've heard the name they know Michael sailor um but they might not understand really what micro strategy is as a business and how micro strategy has used Bitcoin to grow their business tremendously over the past few years can you break that down for us

yeah absolutely so uh there's a graphic that uh that that I told you about the reflexive flywheel yeah yeah perfect so what that shows you is what micro strategy is doing right now so what micro strategy is doing the way that I see it is they're combining the Legacy financial markets with the with crypto I mean with with I guess with Bitcoin but what they're doing is they're kind of I think Michael sailor has been he said this before but they're creating a bridge where they're using the Legacy financial markets to buy Bitcoin they're using the fact that you can just create money out of thin air in the Legacy Market to buy

Bitcoin and that that's that's basically what they're doing they have their own so I I heard somebody say this as well they have their own Bitcoin printer which I think is a great idea because if they keep buying more and more Bitcoin and they keep borrowing more and more Bitcoin if they keep selling shares and because of that the price of their stock or the price of Bitcoin keeps going up because they can give exposure to their shareholders to their investors to bitcoin it it's it's it's a fly so what what that means is that it's a fly whe effect so what that means is in the beginning it's difficult to start up but eventually it just does it on its own it just moves on its own so what this graphic shows you is micro strategy

started issuing debt to buy Bitcoin so micro strategy plus debt equals Bitcoin then we see uh number two BTC increases so the price of Bitcoin increases because micro strategy is buying Bitcoin from the market and it's putting it away it's not putting it's not giving it back to the market it's just basic supply and demand so if micro strategy buys Bitcoin less Supply is available for other people to buy less Supply available to be sold at that current price and the prices goes up so what this means is when micro strategy buys Bitcoin they're adding it to their balance sheet they're putting that appreciating asset in their balance sheet and the value of their company is based on bitcoin so if bitcoin's price goes up so does Micro

strategy price micro strategy market cap so the uh the number of shares times the share price increases because the price of each share keeps Rising so then number three we see here micro strategy market cap increases weight in indices increases I'm not sure if micro strategy is in any major indexes I think they may be in the Russell 2000 which is a small cap one not completely sure on that though I might be wrong uh but I think the target here is to be in the S&P 500 and what that means is if micro strategy accumulates enough Bitcoin and their market cap increases enough and they keep making this happen over and over again for the next decade however long they do it for eventually there's no way

to not include them in the S&P 500 and that's where the flywheel effect starts so when a company like micro strategy gets added to the S&P 500 and those Shares are being passively purchased by anybody who's buying the S&P 500 it means that micro strategy can now buy more Bitcoin because the the market cap of their company increases because now we move to number four micro strategy issues Equity so what micro strategy does if can we switch over to that tweet that I that I sent you I just want to explain that one there um so what we see here is right now micro strategy stock is being sold for 2.7 times the Bitcoin that they have so this is called a net

asset value premium I think this may be a little off I I think the the number may have been updated here but essentially people are willing to pay micro strategy people are willing to pay 2.7 times the value that each share is backed by in Bitcoin term so if one share let's say let's say somebody buys one share of Bitcoin they would buy it for 2.7 Bitcoin worth of cash sorry if somebody were to buy one Bitcoin worth of shares so shares backed by one Bitcoin essentially they would pay 2.7 times in cash so so just to read this out the premium for micr straty shares is 2.7 times right now I want to explain this uh every time micro strategy Issues new shares investors buy those shares

and give micro strategy 2.7 times the value of what they're getting in return so micro strategy receives 2.7 Bitcoin worth of cash so they're getting US Dollars and they give out shares that they can print they can create these shares out of thin air and they can use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin so they give out one Bitcoin worth of shares shares that are backed by one Bitcoin micro strategy then turns around and goes and buys 2.7 Bitcoin so what this is doing is it's increasing the amount of Bitcoin that each share is backed by so now we see here micro strategy share uh shareholders receive a Bitcoin yield because over time their shares will be backed by more Bitcoin uh each share represents more micr more Bitcoin as long as micro strategy can keep doing this shares can be printed at will like

I said so micro strategy can as long as there demand for shares micro strategy can keep printing more and more and more and they can keep selling them in the market and right now I think because because of the way that micro strategy is doing this because of the way that micro strategy is just aggregating all of this Supply and it's the potential for what they can do with the supply in the future that's being valued it's not it's not the actual Bitcoin that's being valued it's the potential for what they can do with that Bitcoin so essentially micro strategy wants to be a Bitcoin Bank eventually and that's that's what's going to change everything so if micro strategy does become a Bitcoin bank they could take over the entire uh I think right now the industry is worth something like 20

trillion doar the the bank actually no not 20 trillion might might be smaller than that but I don't know I don't know what the exact numbers are but Micro strategy could take over a massive portion of that and right now micro strategy is only valued at what 40 billion 50 billion doar if they go to a trillion if they go to 10 trillion eventually that could happen because they have so much Bitcoin and they have a monopoly they have a moat so what Warren Buffett's well known as saying is you you invest in companies that have Moes and I see that micro strategy has a moe they can keep selling more and more shares they can keep issuing more and more Equity they can keep buying more and more Bitcoin and they can keep adding it to their uh their their balance sheet and each share becomes

backed by more and more Bitcoin over time and that that's the I think that's the the magic here so micro strategies is buying more and more Bitcoin but they're able to buy more Bitcoin than the amount of shares that they're issuing and that that's the that that's what just completely blows the entire Market apart and that's why when we look at micro strategies price versus the Bitcoin price which I'll pull up here on the screen you can see that micro strategy has outperformed Bitcoin over the I mean for for quite a while to be honest yeah and the reason for that is that they can keep accumulating more and Bitcoin per share and the investors that are buying micro strategy they're

expecting that micro straty will continue to accumulate more and more Bitcoin and eventually at some point who knows when this will be 10 years 20 years 30 years down the line the investors are basically pricing in uh the value of the company if it does become a Bitcoin bank and most of most people haven't figured this out yet most people have no idea that this is even close to happening or because it's so hard first of all to understand what Bitcoin is then it's so hard to understand what the Legacy markets are doing then on top of that it's so difficult to I mean most keep like I said most people are risk ofs so people don't aren't even looking this direction and

and in this case the people who are looking in this direction are are figuring it out early and eventually like like I said the entire Market is going to be on top of this so what are the risks to investing in micro strategy like obviously that all sounds great and sounds amazing assuming that that happens but there's possible that it doesn't play out that way what are the risks absolutely so uh I mean the first one the first most obvious one the just it's it's glaringly obvious it's the fact that micro strategies of Bitcoin can be confiscated and people will tell you oh no that's never going to happen I've made videos about this I've gotten so many comments Oh no you're stupid man you're just you're just making stuff up you're just you're in your own fantasy but I mean that could happen if the

world goes to a Bitcoin standard if the US doesn't have enough Bitcoin of course they can confiscate it I'm not saying it's going to happen but the possibility of that is a lot higher than if you were to hold Bitcoin in In Cold Storage if you were to keep it in your own wallet and you have it set up in a way that nobody can access it maybe you have multisig it's in different locations around the world nobody can access your Bitcoin they can come to your house they can try to take your Bitcoin they can even hurt you but they won't be able to access your Bitcoin right but with micro strategy it's uh it's a Honeypot it's like what happened in 1933 where people had their gold deposits at Banks and it just made it so much easier for the US government to work with the Federal

Reserve to confiscate all of that gold so that's the main risk I think another risk is of course that uh if micro strategies move side oh sorry if Bitcoin just move sideways for the next uh five years I don't think that's going to happen I I'm not I don't think that's GNA I don't think the likelihood of that is very high but if it does happen or if mic if Bitcoin drops let's say 90% then micro strategy shares could drop significantly and a lot of people will probably sell maybe because Bitcoin is a VIN good maybe a lot fewer people are interested in Bitcoin maybe a lot fewer people are interested in buying micro strategy shares but I don't think that's likely I think the first one is more likely than the second one right so basically the the main risk to there's

the confiscation risk there's the um sort of uh a real Black Swan event is what that would be if that happened um but the main risk that I think an investor needs to think about is you have to it's a leveraged play on bitcoin so you have to really believe that bitcoin price is going to go up because if bitcoin price doesn't go up the pain is much greater on the way down that's it okay why do you invest in micro strategy versus other proxies or other beta plays to bitcoin such as the Bitcoin ETF or others so the ETFs are uh the issue with the ETFs is that they have a fee so the best case scenario is

that I underperform against Bitcoin so there's no reason for me unless I have money that I that's locked in somewhere I wouldn't buy the ETFs that's first of all and then uh let's say miners for example miners are competing with one another to create more Bitcoin there's always going to be competition miners will be replaced miners will be uh disrupted in the case of Bitcoin there is no dis there there's no competition bit sorry in the case of micro strategy there's no competition because micro strategy has 1.2 1.3% of the total Supply um nobody I don't think anybody else will be able to get to this point I I don't I don't think that's even possible at this point but maybe who knows maybe I'm wrong here but I don't think most most companies most

publicly traded companies will be able to get to this point so the way that I see it micro strategy is like I said creating a moat where they have this competitive advantage over pretty much every single other player in the financial industry every single other publicly traded company uh and because of this they're able to outperform bitcoin right so if I were to take the risk of buying a Bitcoin proxy first of all I want to earn more than what Bitcoin will pay me so the ETFs are out I don't personally see a benefit of holding the ETFs I'd rather just hold Bitcoin in Cold Storage right um so if I'm going to put my money in something if I'm going to take the risk then I want to be rewarded for it I want a higher return than what Bitcoin will

give you so the only money that I have in micro strategy just as a disclaimer here is money that's locked in that I can't touch until I'm 55 it's a pension account if it was this cash that I could take self custody of I would just buy Cold Storage Bitcoin okay okay great uh I want to finish with uh your thoughts on bitcoin for this cycle what do you think is the uh the high that Bitcoin could hit in this cycle and what do you think is the low I think the I think I have a I have a question on that uh I mean how do we even know there's going to be Cycles anymore with with micro strategy saying they're going to be buying $ 42 billion do of Bitcoin we have that constant flow of money coming in uh I don't think that

that we're going to see a 80 90% drop okay I mean I think I think we could easily see a staircase up right with based on just the chart that we saw with the price we saw the resistance and the support uh maybe we just keep seeing that maybe see resistance support price Discovery and then six months of sideways movement price Discovery six months of P sideways movement price Discovery and it keeps going up like that I mean for all we know that could happen unless let's say uh let's say a massive institution just blows up um but I mean let's based on my my assumption here that a cycle before years let's say uh by the end of this cycle I think that maybe Bitcoin can

be uh I mean it could go up to a million dollars for all we know you think it could a million in this cycle that would be that would be insane it would be I mean but I I I don't see that as being a crazy assumption right because because of the fact that Bitcoin has a finite Supply I know there's a lot of other people who are saying that Samson ma for example says this um there are other people who say this but it could go to a million but it could also drop all the way down to 10,000 I think just because if Satoshi Nakamoto comes out and sells all all their Bitcoin then the price is probably going to drop to a th and then it'll come back up if if Satoshi goes and sells all million all 1 million 1.2 million coins it could drop in triple

digits for all we know right so I mean the way that I see it countries are able to buy um the ETFs have opened up a whole new Floodgate Of of cash that can come in so for all we know bitcoin's price never comes down 50 60% again yeah wow okay so um and what would be your Target price in this cycle like what would you be happy with I know uh you know 100K feels like a very strong possibility by the end of the year if we can have this breakout basically I think if we get past the election then I think we could and the election is a smooth election and not contested and doesn't go and drag on for weeks or months and

in the courts but assuming it's smooth I think we could see a real and everybody's been saying this and I assume you agree but beyond this year would would be a reasonable like in your estimates at what price would you be like oh yeah I feel like this is this could be the top right now I don't really see it that way I I see Bitcoin as a savings account I like if I need extra the way that I see it if I need extra Fiat I'll sell some Bitcoin if I if I have extra feed I'll buy Bitcoin I'm not going to sell Bitcoin just to take profits that's not my goal here um I know a lot of people do that I know that's the way to go for a lot of people but the thing is that if you take Bitcoin if you take profits let's say

you sell half your stack and bitcoin's price never comes back down to that level again you've basically turned half your stack half of your um ultimate protection ultimate Freedom asset into pieces of paper so I mean I I I could I mean I I would be surprised if it doesn't go up to 3 400,000 but I don't know again these are just estimates right nobody nobody really knows um nobody has any idea how the demand is going to work out for all we know let's say uh China comes out says we're going to sell all our treasuries and we're going to buy Bitcoin with all of it where what's bitcoin's price going to be at that point right and it's this game theory at this point it's just people trying to

figure out what other people are going to want to do in the future and countries trying to figure out what other governments are going to want to do in the future and and they just go based on that so for all we know we could be on a full Bitcoin standard globally in the next 10 years and where where would bitcoin's price be at that point right yeah rette thank you so much for for joining the show today and sharing uh all your thoughts with us uh been very interesting to see uh and hear the thoughts of somebody who sees Bitcoin in a different way than most many of the people that we have on the show uh and great to have such a bull in the space uh let's go I hope we get Bitcoin a million as well everybody thank you so much for listening in have

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than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day