Puffer UniFi, Zooming out and more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #792 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone welcome to another episode of De R where cup latest news in etherum ecosystem I'm your host Anon Z and today the 9th of July 2024 right everyone let's get into it so apologies for missing yesterday's episode everyone but I am back today obviously I said that I'm going to be doing episodes on Monday Wednesdays and Fridays but if there is a rug fuel on one of those days then I'll just make up for it on the next day which is what I'm doing today the episode for tomorrow tomorrow being Wednesday will uh still go ahead I don't plan to to miss that episode so there's still going to be three episodes this week so yeah anytime that happens going forward it's just going to be chopping and changing the days there but I'm going to try to stick to the Monday Wednesday Friday Cadence but sometimes

it's just not possible but anyway enough about that let's jump into the news so we got some movement on the E ETFs uh you know it feels like we're in the final days now before these things are going to launch I feel like at this point they're probably going to launch next week uh obviously my prediction of early July or July 8th was um was wrong of course I didn't expect them to move this slowly because if they launch next week which is I believe the July 15th is the Monday next week let me just check here quickly yeah if they launch next week it' be almost two months since they were approved so it's yeah I don't know why I don't know why it's so slow just it's it is it is what it is it's slow but hey we're almost there we're in the

home stretch here uh but the reason I bring it up today is because there's been some movement on grayscale's eth E product here so now as you guys know the eth E product that grayscale has has has been live for quite a while now has around $10 billion worth of eth a right now I think maybe a little bit less than that since the eth price went down or I think maybe just on that cuz it was at a discount for a while but he now pretty much like at par at fair value if not at a premium some some days but the announcement we got today or I guess the news we got today was that grayscale said that they um have set a a record date of July 18th for the initial creation and distribution of shares of the grayscale etherum mini trust to

shareholders of ethe and ethe will contribute 10% of its eth to the mini trust in other words what this means is that essentially 10% of eth is basically going to be converted into this mini trust which is going to have uh the lower fee as you guys know I've explained before about how gray scal is going to have two products they're going to have e and then the um the mini e ATF just like they have for BTC they have jbtc and their mini BTC uh ATF uh because the the jbtc fee is 1.5% I expect the E fee to probably be 1.5% as well lowered from 2.5% I believe it is right now and then their mini trust fee is going to be 2% which is more in line with the other issuers here so that means that automatically 10% of E is not

going to be outflow we can guarantee that that 10% whatever whatever number it is I think it's I don't know what the current um AUM of of e is on the top of my head but if it's 10 billion then a billion of that is going to be automatically converted it is not going to be outflow so we can say that uh based on on this announcement here the the other 90% we don't know still right that's just the open question that everyone's uh still kind of um speculating on right now we don't know what that's going to look like but there are good arguments to be made that the as I've made before that the outflows aren't going to be as big as people think they're going to be and I think that once the market sees that that's probably going to be a very positive

development for eth and also the other big open question is what's the flows going to look like you know what are the inflows going to look like for the E ETFs given that the market has been weak over the last few weeks especially generally a summer week a summer lull period in the markets are we going to see those big inflows like we had for BTC it's probably not going to be as big as BTC uh because BTC uh obviously was the first what was the first crypto um ETF and it was also launched at a very different time so we're going to have to see what it looks like but hey I do think the inflows are going to surprise people and I do think the relatively low outflows from E cuz there will be some outflows but I do think the relatively low outflows from E are going to

surprise people as well but yeah that's really all the news there were some more s1s that got pushed back to the SEC from the issuers no new fees from what I can see but we're expecting all the fees to be around 2% uh which is in line with what they have for their BTC ETF products anyway no surprises uh there but anyway uh if you want to read this for yourself I'll link Nate's tweet in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right something that I came across uh because I believe someone posted it in the daily grade Discord channel was this relatively new initiative called the stakers union so they're calling themselves a collective of home stakers for the ethereum network so there is a website you can go to called stakers union.com which is essentially a way to get acquainted with

what they're trying to build here so from what I can see I'm not I haven't joined the sters union yet but from what I can see they're essentially trying to make a community of solo stakers uh whether they be I guess like true Solo stakers or maybe solo staking with with rockol or something like that create a community here work together to improve the incentives and understanding of solar staking and basically make it so that um solo staking can remain competitive obviously with the wider staking ecosystem but also uh basically bring new solo stakers on so pretty cool initiative here now if you want to join and become a member you can there is a way to do that here as I said I haven't become a member myself I haven't vetted it myself I'm just putting this on your radar because I I believe it is a legit

project I'm not saying it's a it's a scam or anything like that they have a doc section that you can go look at for in terms in terms of like how to become a member and how to prove that you're actually a solo Staker and you can you can go check this out I'll link it in the YouTube description below but just something that I wanted to put on your radar because obviously you guys know that solo staking is I don't know if i' caught like the most important thing in ethereum at least to me I do think it is one of the most important things within ethereum because it all the other really nice features that we want right the the features of censorship resistance decentralization allowing people to essentially uh verify blocks and and propose blocks from their home hardware from consumer Hardware like that was

always the the dream of ethereum I think we achieved that dream with proof of stake but obviously we want to make it so that more and more people can become solo stakers and also feel valued I think that's one thing that maybe solo stakers don't feel is that you know that that there was that kind of narrative for a little while that projects would aird drop tokens to solo stakers there were a couple that did that but it hasn't really materialized which is sad and I feel like air drops generally have kind of falling out of favor anyway or fallen out of favor so it's not exactly something that we can rely on there and also obviously being a solo Staker probably Nets you I mean it it depends on like what you're looking at but like you don't get an LST right you get you

don't get an LRT so you can't go use it in defi so if you're not interested in that like I'm not interested in doing that then it's fine but there is an opportunity cost there so I understand why maybe stakers feel a little bit less valued than they otherwise would uh but I guess like at the end of the day from the re recent e Staker surve that I saw it seems like a lot of seller sters simply don't care about that stuff right what they care about and what they care deeply about is essentially having complete and total control over their eth uh and getting rewarded for that by being part of the network and being uh basically a block proposer and also running full nodes to verify the network and obviously attesting to blocks as well I should should mention so yeah definitely seems like the solo Staker

cohort or at least most of them uh are definitely not in it so much for like profit maximalism because I don't think you would become a solar Staker if you were a profit Maxi but definitely in it for the ideological reasons uh that that ethereum exists for which is really awesome I mean that's what I'm in it for obviously if I was a profit Maxi I wouldn't be solo staking I'd be going in go staking with an LST taking that LST depositing it in defi going leverage long right to try and maximize my gains but I mean one that's obviously much more riskier than just stay cuz you're now taking on Smart contract risk you're now taking on Leverage risk right um and then you're also getting really emotionally involved with it too because you're trying to manage different positions uh but yeah I mean if I as I

said if I was a profit Maxi that's what what I would do and that's what a lot of people do do uh but I think that a solo stakers are generally quite conservative they probably had their eth bag for quite a while as well because obviously to be a true solar STI you need at least 32 eth per validator theyve probably had that for a while and you don't want to you don't want to [ __ ] around with it right you don't want to do anything that would basically jeopardize your eth bag but you still want to be part of the network you still want to be part of the movement and that's the best way to do it as a solo Staker even running a full note is fine as you guys know it doesn't cost anything to run a full node doesn't

require an eth I mean okay it does cost something it costs like making sure you got the right Hardware the internet connection the electricity but you don't need 32 e you don't need any e to run a full node anyone can run a full node on any consumer Hardware that you want uh and even lower than that you can run it on a Raspberry Pi as you guys know but obviously to be a Staker on the network or to be a solo Staker on the network you need that 328 uh and then obviously you run all the the software as well there but anyway you can go check out the stakers union for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right so just want to give a big shout out to Emperor here on Twitter so they've created something on GitHub

called a map of ethereum where they describe it as a place to uh I guess uh create sorry they describe it here by saying trying to place discourse papers eth research posts blogs and talks around current day ethereum research and future directions essentially this is a treasure Trove of e ethereum research uh basically a lot of this stuff is still relevant from what I can see or at least pretty much all of it is still relevant so if you are someone who likes reading research papers likes uh reading research blog posts likes keeping up to dat with I guess the bleeding edge of ethereum research this is a resource for you I mean it when I say you could literally spend days if not weeks reading through all of this digesting it all getting up to speed with everything

that's happening on the ethereum research front so I'm very glad that Emperor has put this together so a huge curos to them to have basically a One-Stop shop for it now of course because this is on GitHub you can essentially submit your own pool request if you think something is missing and they will probably add it if it is relevant uh here so you can go check this out for yourself I just wanted to give it a shout out here for you guys because I thought it was very cool I'll link that in the YouTube description below for you guys to check out all right puffer has announced a big I guess development in their road map which has been coming for a little while I believe and been on their road map for a little while here but they've introduced something called puffer UniFi

which is puffer's based rollup so they say here imagine a world where all l2s are working as one the future is too bright we need sunglasses obviously in reference to uh being based or based wups that's the kind of meme that Justin Drake is trying to put out there but if you're interested in learning more about this you can of course read their light paper here but the reason why I thought this was cool and thought this was really interesting not because it's a new layer to that's being spun up or a new rollup that's being spun up I should say technically but the reason I think it's cool is because the fact that it's a base rollup leveraging pre-confirmation basically means that you get the nice UI and ux of uh Layer Two of a rollup in terms of fast and cheap transactions and then you

also get uh interoperability with L1 now the reason why I think this makes sense for something like puffer is because staking is done on L1 right and if you want to create interoperability between uh staking on L1 and the l2s what essentially you've had to do is Bridge across your lsts or lrts to these l2s and that kind of obviously fragments liquidity this is where fragmenting liquidity actually is an issue whereas when you're doing it as part of a based rollup or with based rollup architecture at least from my understanding that doesn't happen you can access that liquidity you can access those assets and that staking ecosystem on layer one through the base rollup without having to incur layer one uh transaction times and layer one transaction fees so that's why I think that this is very very cool

now of course Papa details this in their Twitter thread here you guys can go check this out for yourself for full details on this but I do expect to see more of this I I think happening within the ethereum ecosystem now there's obviously a lot of chatter about app rollups right like the app chain thesis where where everything is going to be its own rollup every app is going to have its own rollup and then there's discussions about the super chains within the ecosystem like you have the op stack super chain you have the arbitrum orbit one polygon cdk so on and so forth so what is the world of l2s going to look like you know 5 10 years from now as I've said before I do think there's going to be a bunch of super chains that will all interact with each other but then on the other side we're

going to have a bunch of chains like what puffer launching where they're going to be base rollups that are set to a very specific use case and the reason why these are so cool is because they're not isolating themselves in their own little island on their own L2 outside of the L1 they're on the L1 they're they're they're using the L1 to uh to essentially process their transactions here and become inoperable with everything and then they also uh if designed in a specific way and if the other l2s join in would be able to interoperate with those other l2s as well so I can I can see something of a privacy uh based roll up being spun up for example I know there's been a few attempts at this asz Tech is still working on it but I can see a privacy based rollup existing in its own world

uh uh being spun up uh I can see more staking rollups being spun up not just puffers uh but but more out there I could see uh reaking base rollups being spun up because at the end of the day base rollups are essentially what what seems to be the end game for enshrined rollups you guys will know that I originally talked about in shrin rollups maybe a year or two ago now and it's something that Justin Drake was talking about where essentially what you would do is have the rollup be part of the core protocol itself now obviously the drawback of this is the fact that if it's part of the core protocol it basically can't change or nothing can happen to it unless it goes through the proper ethereum governance L1 governance process which is extremely slow so obviously that doesn't really work but

base rollups get us essentially The Best of Both Worlds where essentially you can still change things you can still upgrade things you don't have to go through the whole ethereum L1 governance process you can have your own governance process if you want um but you also still get the benefits of using the L1 validators to process your transactions get that interoperability as well um and be tightly coupled uh with the L1 here so very very cool I I love bass rollups I think that the there's a bit of debate now not so much about Bas RS but about pre-confirmation and their viability because pre-confirmation definitely add a centralizing force to anything that that they're on not just Bas rers but anything generally now um there is discussions about lowering the ethereum block time to 2 seconds so you wouldn't need pre-confirmation because the whole

point of pre-confirmation is essentially to give the al2 fast transaction experience to base rollups to uh I guess um uh to basically anything that that's happening on the L1 essentially what you get from a pre-confirmation is a promise that your transaction is going to be included in a block whereas when it comes to a e L1 block times of 12 seconds or I should say slot times of 12 seconds of blocks included in that so you have to wait up to 12 seconds but with pre- confirmations it could happen basically instantly and then you get a promise that'll be included in a block that promise is kept uh is kept via cryptoeconomic guarantees but there are centralizing forces with that and obviously it's not as secure as just using the L1 normally so there is a lot of discussion around potentially reducing the block time of ethereum or

the slot time I should say to 2 seconds now these very early conversations happening here I don't know if the trade-offs are working worth it because as you guys know maybe you don't know but just just for those of for you who don't essentially if you were to lower the slot time to 12 seconds uh sorry to 2 seconds from 12 seconds I I feel like you'd sacrifice a lot of the I guess consumer grade full nodes and especially stakers because to keep up with the tip of the chain some people already struggle with 12C slot times and this is a bandwidth issue definitely um but it's also the issue of processing the transactions as they come in processing the blocks making sure you keep up keep up with the head of the chain of course

we're making a lot of improvements to L1 to make it a lighter chain overall one of those is Max EB so essentially cutting down the amount of validators on the network while still keeping the same number of note operators but essentially taking that bandwidth um bandwidth load up the network going to veral trees things like that right so if it does happen if we do reduce slot times to 2 seconds probably not going to happen for a couple of years at least but that has been tabled recently and there's a lot of research going into it I'm happy that if if it gets done because it obviously is a huge ux upgrade to have 2C block times instead of 12C uh but the thing is is that they are trade-offs here there's always trade-offs but I'm still not sure if the trade-offs are worth it unless we

can preserve what we have within ethereum um while obviously making the trade-off to get uh to you know to maybe kick off some really or at least make it unfeasible for really low powered devices to be on the network and order to give us a huge ux upgrade on L1 and you essentially wouldn't need pre-confirmation you can still do them because pre- confirmations can can do things in like 100 milliseconds um but you wouldn't need it for the good user experience I mean if you have to wait 2 seconds for a transaction to confirm like who who cares right like 2 seconds is nothing it that it really doesn't matter at that point um but yeah I mean 12 seconds obviously like it's the same thing as going to a website if you have to wait what more than two seconds for a website to load you're clicking off of

that website like I I don't think I would wait 12 seconds for a website to load as stupid as that sounds that's what happens so and and when it comes to transactions especially when it comes to things like me as well uh there are other considerations uh uh uh to to talk about here so yeah definitely go kind of check that out there um check out puffer's uh thread here about their new bass rollup but there's a lot of research going on and that other stuff I talked about you can probably Google a few of those things but I I've highlighted a bunch on the refill before go check that out uh for yourself all right last up here I got a couple of things I want to talk about two different things but I guess kind of related so the first thing is about

keeping your funds on centralized exchanges and services second one is going to be about price and something different about price not something you're used to something that I came up with on one of my bike rides that I'm really excited to share with you guys but first off I just wanted to highlight this tweet here so this Twitter account called medx put out a tweet over the weekend basically saying that a lot of the uh people that had funds in Celsius before Celsius went down uh uh to obviously went bankrupt uh have been sued essentially because they withdrew within 90 days of Celsius going bankrupt and they're being sued to get those funds back so Celsius wants those funds back the bankruptcy lawyers want those funds back and apparently this is completely legal apparently I don't know if it was in the terms of service or

it's part of bankruptcy law the Celsius uh bankruptcy I guess um lawyers whoever they are they're allowed to claw back uh I think it's I think it's for people who withdrew over $100,000 from from Celsius within 90 days of it going into bankruptcy they they are allowed to claw back all of that money I believe to redistribute to all creditors here and they have sued to do this and apparently from what I've heard from from different lawyers out there what I've read um this is completely legal and you can't fight it essentially so that's that's what's happening here and the reason I bring this up today is because I wanted to remind you guys that if you have the ability to self- custody in a safe and secure way you always should do that and there are more than just like self-

custody options of you retaining complete and total control control over your assets and if you get compromised or if you lose your key to it there's no way to recover it there are multiple different ways to custody or to self custody without having to uh essentially give up recovery options so for example queenb base offers one with their custody Solutions or essentially it's a multisig they hold one of the keys someone else holds a key and you hold a key so if uh um someone else you trust holds a key and then essentially if one of the keys gets lost you could still recover from it because it's a two of three and then you can obviously extend this out so it's basically just a multi right but it's done with like a trusted custodian such as coinbase or you know fire blocks does it as well and there's

other companies out there that that do this as well but the thing is is that if you do have the ability to safely and securely self custody yourself you should be doing that and I practice always withdrawing assets that I have on centralized exchanges to self- custody because of the fact that you can see here even within 90 days if you withdrawing from somewhere you those funds could still be clawed back so you should be doing it all the time so that you can get pass that 90-day barrier as soon as possible I believe thiso uh this 90-day period approves to all you sorry applies to all us bankruptcies from my understanding when it comes to this stuff so you should definitely be doing this with any us-based companies out there but I do understand that self- custody is a daunting task I do understand that self- custody is maybe

too involved for a lot of people out there and I completely understand why the majority of people leave their funds on centralized exchanges and trust them to be their custodian but if you're in crypto if you like deep in crypto you're listening to the Daily gay I feel like you should definitely have enough knowledge and enough I guess confidence to safely and securely uh uh um custody your own funds and there are very many custody Solutions you can go with obviously a highw wallet is one of the best ways to do that but you can do things like multi- you can do some secret sharing you can get pretty complex with it but really you don't want to get too complex with it because then if you over complicate it too much and then you forget how to access it obviously that's bad but there are

various different self- custody Solutions and and paths you can go down here now of course on that note as well um there's nothing wrong with leaving your funds on a centralized Exchange in terms of you know you shouldn't be made fun of for doing this or you shouldn't be made to feel guilty about this but there are risks there's always risk there's like this risk with self- custody as I said the risk if you've just got a normal ethereum account and you lose your uh your seed phrase to that right that's that's a risk but there's the risk on a centralized exchange or a centralized crypto service that they'll go into bankruptcy or that they'll uh you know you'll get hacked or they'll your funds there's always risk here so it's about the risk that you want to take and the risk that you're comfortable taking but I will say on the

Note with Celsius here people may look back in hindsight and say a yeah Celsius was an obvious fraud and I remember I called out Celsius a few times as something that was dodgy I didn't know the extent of what they were doing within the um within Celsius I didn't know that Alex mashinsky the founder was committing complete fraud just like SPF was but the thing is is that at the time Celsius was considered one of the gold standard crypto apps or centralized crypto apps out there like everyone was Shilling them there was the whole celsian Army because they had a token like it wasn't considered something that was well known to be Shady or something that was committing fraud or something that was going to rug their users and we all know how that turned out so it doesn't matter how trusted you think one

of these uh brands are one of these services are uh I I don't think that they deserve so much trust that you store everything with them and then uh you you essentially trust that they're not going to go bankrupt or trust that they're not going to steal your funds or trust that your funds aren't going to get Frozen arbitrarily for whatever reason right and again um as I said like uh self- custody is daunting I get that but you can do a hybrid approach maybe you keep half on the exchange maybe you keep half in self custody maybe you keep a quarter on one exchange a quarter on another exchange you know a quar self cast qu somewhere else who knows right there are different ways to do this but I would never have all of my funds on one centralized service centralized crypto service like never I would never

even have one of my funds in one uh guess like self- custody solution like I try to practice security and hygiene here and try to keep myself um you know nice and secure with my self- custody Solutions um but yeah generally I don't like keeping anything on centralized exchanges and services and neither should you but yeah sucks for all the Celsius people that got out 90 days before or within that 90day window and now have to basically pay that money back somehow you maybe they don't even have that money anymore just not a great situation to be in so I just wanted to give a heads up on that one there all right finally here I have what I wanted to talk about now in in front of your screen uh if you're watching the video you will see that I have a spreadsheet open now this spreadsheet is

called zoom out now as I said this idea came to me while I was riding my bike because I was thinking about obviously the market went down recently and I was thinking to myself it's like what if you looked at the opening price of eth every month like the opening price at the start of the the every month for the last eight years I think this goes back to 2016 the price action that I have here what is the percentage that you would be happy AKA would the price be higher than the previous month or or sad would the price be lower than the previous month so for example in July the price was uh at the start of the month the price was 3,437 but at the start of June it was 3,762 so essentially if you checked uh it in July uh sorry if you checked the

price at the 1 of June then didn't check the price at all and came back and checked it on the 1st of July you would realiz you would see that uh it went down and you're not happy right so I was trying to come up with a happiness meting here and I as I said I did this all the way to to uh 2016 and essentially spat out a percentage so 58% of the time so 58% of the months uh that that is part of this data set the price was higher than the previous month where 42% it was lower than the previous month so on net you were more than half the time happy if all you did was log on once a month on the 1st of July or the 1 of June whatever it is right the first of the month each month and checked what

the price is uh from there now obviously this is completely oversimplifying things because this is the the price at the start of the month this is not the price that you bought the asset at if you bought the asset at $4,900 in 2021 at the all-time high of eth back then and you're checking the price every month since then uh you are not happy right but that's not the point of what I'm trying to illustrate here the point I'm trying to illustrate is that if you zoom out to the monthly time frame and longer than that and I've got those those sheets that I'll show you in a second you can basically see that you are a happy camper because eth is essentially up only for the majority of its life so far on the monthly time frame really there are only a few months

where I guess like if you had bought eth you would be in loss because there those few months where eth was higher than $33,000 right but this doesn't show that this just shows the opening price at the start of each month yard now if we go to the quarterly opening price so if you check the price at the start of every quarter and every quarter only you didn't check the price besides this you were happy 67% of the time so 67% of the time the opening price of a quarter was higher than the opening price of the previous quarter at 32% of the time it was lower here if you zoom out even further and checked half yearly you're at 70% so if you only check the price of e since 2016 at the start of uh of the year and at the midpoint of the year and

that's all you checked you would be happy with the price 70% of the time and you would have had an amazing streak from 2020 to the current month as you can see here if you check the price and uh July of 2020 and then every uh every 6 months from there excluding one period the price of eth was higher than the previous month as you can see in my spreadsheet here so you would have been completely happy you wouldn't have had to deal with all of the [ __ ] all of the bearish stuff all of the the the narratives all of the complaining everything you wouldn't deal with any of that because you're only checking it every every half year and if you go to the yearly chart it's basically uh it's quite funny the yearly is actually a bit different here because there are some

some outlier stats here but the yearly is basically a similar picture now where this gets really interesting is because what I've done here is I've zoomed out right I've zoomed out on the monthly quarterly half yearly and if you only check the price at the start of each month the start of each quarter and the start of the half yearly you would be happy most of the time especially on the half yearly chart here but let's say you check the price every week would you be happy checking it every week not really about half the time you would be sad because half the time it's uh almost half the time it's no 46.6% of the time if you check the price once a week it is lower than the previous week 53.3% of the time it is higher now where things get especially interesting is on the

daily if we go to the Daily and I was actually shocked by this data this was hilarious to me when I saw this because I was like surely not I had to recheck this data a bunch of times cuz I didn't believe what I was seeing if you go to the Daily the percentage chance that the price of eth would be higher one day than it was the previous day is 50% or almost exactly 50.5% compared to 49.5% on the no side here so essentially when people say that checking the price every day is a random walk it is true you have a 50% chance a coin flip chance of guessing if the price of eth is going to be higher one day than it was the next okay so what's what's my point here

what's the what's the moral of the story here zoom out stop looking at the daily charts because you have a 50% chance of being happy and a 50% chance of being sad on every any given day right and then also you have strings of bad days and strings of good days but on net it's 50/50 right it may not feel like it but this data goes all the way back to 2016 this is not a Year's worth of data this is not a bare Market year a bull market year this is 2016 this is 8 years worth of eth price action I could have gone back further with BTC it would have painted the same picture here 8 years worth of price action you had a 50% chance over those eight years of guessing if e is going to be higher one day or lower the next and this is

exactly why most people don't make money trading because it is a random walk there is no way to know there is no way to tell the future you can guess you can be a better Trader than others but essentially if you're trying to do it on the daily time frame it is near impossible to guess it correctly in terms of uh in terms of guessing it correctly consecutively right you can guess it correctly for potentially 10 times in a row but you've got a 50% chance each time it doesn't it doesn't accumulate you know percentages aren't sorry um statistics is dictat is not accumulative here and if you look on the weekly it's essentially the same thing it's almost 50% but then you zoom out to the monthly gets a bit better 58% versus 42% quarterly 6732 half f is my favorite you have a

70% chance so that's why zoom out focus on longterm and realize that checking the price every day is going to be a coin toss of whether you're going to be happy or not with the price now as I said this is very this is an oversimplification because it's only checking the opening price of each time period that I've looked at here it is not checking the price that you bought the asset at now you can obviously massage this data and say okay well I bought most of my eth for an average price of $11,000 and then you check each day uh that the price was over $1,000 maybe you bought it at in in 2020 you bought eth for $1,000 you will have been happy I think 90% of the time because eth has not been under $1,000 for more than a few days I think it was even just

like a couple of days that it was under $1,000 for $1,500 same thing you'd be happy for most of the time from I'm I'm going off memory right now so you can chop and change this data but the the point I'm trying to make here is is is literally zoom out guys is the fact that like trying to look at the price each day and get happiness from that or essentially try and guess what it's going to do is near impossible even on the weekly it's near impossible because of the fact that it's a coin toss it's a random walk it is not something that is predictable and I really was just utterly Amazed by this daily data here like I really was and it fits perfectly because as I said most Traders don't make money most people have no idea what's going on from a day-to-day perspective because

the day-to-day perspective is not based on fundamentals it is a random walk based on Traders really then you zoom out more that's where the fundamentals Shine the half yearly is where the E fundamentals really shine right in terms of in terms of seeing how it's basically uh up only here and even even if you look in recent times if you ignore all the data before 2020 so back back when eth was a lot smaller it was a lot less uncertain now with the certainty that we have on the half year there was only one period where price was lower than it was the previous month and that was the depth of the bare Market that was July 2022 basically June 2022 was the bottom July 2022 and then from then on it was

higher and higher from there so essentially if you get rid of that you have had since July 2020 to July 202 before you had had four years if you just checked the price every half year and you had bought in July 2020 you would be happy every single time that that's amazing to me I don't know that really is amazing to me and it's amazing because of the fact that that it really perfectly encapsulates what a lot of long-term crypto investors say is zoom out stop focusing on the day-to-day stuff and you'll be a lot happier but anyway I hope you guys enjoyed that little I guess like statistical analysis there I certainly did when I made it and it really was just came to me on my bike ride and it was hilarious when I put all the data together because I had a uh I

guess like um a guesstimate of what this would look like because I am pretty in tune with what the price of eth is for better or worse over the last uh seven years since I've been in since 2017 I I basically know each month almost each month what the price was it's it's kind of stupid that I know that but I do or at least like the range that it was in there um and and the thing is is that I was calculating all this in my head on my bike ride before I got home to do it on on paper here and I was like yeah this this is hilarious like this is going to this is going to be great I can't wait to tell the the the the the daily Way community about this and the daily thing just yeah it just really

shocked me that it was so accurate uh and I just love seeing that but anyway I'm going to leave that at that one uh for today so thank you everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone