Prediction markets as a crypto investment theme, with Kix

Transcript

GM, GM, Milk Road Nation. This is your friendly neighborhood DGEN gambler, LGD set, gracing the airwaves on a little loner from the DGEN channel to bring you a very important episode. If you haven't noticed the news, Poly Market, the biggest prediction market, maybe KI's catching up, just raised $2 billion from the New York Stock Exchange, valuating them at $9 billion. Absolutely insane. At this point, there is no doubt in my mind that prediction markets will be the huge meta to to finish the year and maybe beyond that, similar to how AI was last year. And I think the time to get in on it is right now. So, for today's very special crossover over episode, we welcome Kicks uh who's who has written a

fantastic thesis about this and also given us some tickers that we can maybe trade right now to get in on this meta before it really takes off. So, hope you enjoy this episode. It's also the final one for Milkroad Legion. I'll be doing more stuff on the main Milk Road channel. So, I hope you're excited to hear from me over there. Otherwise, enjoy this great episode about prediction markets. If prediction markets keep going up and to the right in Q4, and it's looking like they're going to, that means Poly Market is going to their valuation's going to repric up. Koshi's valuation is going to repric up, and that's going to be the anchor pricing for everything underneath it. And those things are going to go bananas.

What's up everybody? It's LG Ducet here. Welcome to the Milk Road DJN podcast. The show that helps you feel slightly less insane for being here in crypto, not for being on the show. Either way, both things are crazy. Uh, today we have a fantastic guest who's agreed to come on last second. Kicks is here in the studio and he is answering one of the questions that I've had for a long time and a lot I know a lot of people have had in our community for a really long time, which is how do I actually bet on prediction markets? Right? Because prediction markets, everybody knows, is a huge thing. Everyone's trying to predict what uh Jerome Pal is going to say at his next speech or uh you know what Taylor Swift is is gonna who she's going to diss in her next album or

whatever you want. But none of those tokens, none of those platforms, Poly Market, Cali, all that stuff. They don't have they don't have tokens yet. They're racing to dropping a token, but they don't have their own token. And Kicks has identified the actual tickers, whether they're tooling or some other kind of format that work as little betas to those um to those platforms. And today, he's going to share that alpha for us right here on the show. Before we start, uh, I want to send you over to Milkroad Swap. If you're trading anything on Ethereum, Base, ARB, uh, Salana, right, which, you know, we do a lot of trading there, head on over to Milk Road Swap. We have some really fantastic fees there set up by the team to make it just a lot easier to kind of trade your crypto, especially if you're

a little browser wallet, right? When you're leaving Coinbase, you want to feel safe, Milk Road Spot is a good spot. And today's episode is actually brought to you by two different people. Nexo, the platform that grows your crypto without locking it away. And Figure Markets, Grow Your Cash Like a Bank. No lockups, just real returns, brother kicks. Okay, first before you even say anything else for anybody watching on YouTube, you have one of the most unique angles of of any streamer I've ever seen. Only >> I'm going to try to do the show like this. Zoomed in. Here we go. >> Exactly.

>> I have to have the microphone. Here we try to hold it like this. Okay, now we're Now we're >> And it's a real tight angle. You can't move too much or then you're out of frame. I got I got like half my face. Okay, I got to just try like this. Okay, now we're matching. Now we're matching. But tell me about prediction markets. I'm just going to pull up the tweet. Um, tell me first of all the thesis because you teased this for like days. You're like, "All right, bros. I'm going to share my big thesis for the year for the Q4 and you guys are going to [ __ ] your pants when I share it." Um, and then you you finally wrote a post with like six different tickers, eight tickers if you include the speculative ones. Uh, tell me about that. tell me the thesis for

for prediction markets and then and then we'll dive into these >> 100%. So the I've been in crypto since 2020. Um and I've primarily made my money and focused on the alt side. Like I I hold Bitcoin, I hold ETH, I hold Salana, but I've always made my money on the more speculative stuff. So for 2021 it was NFTTS. Um, and you know, NFTs after 2022 just wasn't really my game anymore. I still trade the occasional NFT. I own Moonbirds. I had Punchy Penguins, but you know, in terms of >> having a lot of things called punk strategy pretty early, man. Give yourself some that you were on your show. You called it pretty early.

>> That was that was nice. Um, and so yeah, I like I like trading those types of things. And what I've noticed over the years is without fail, other than 2022, uh, every year in Q4, there's an alt season, right? But then there's specifically like an alt meta. And if you get into the meta >> early, there's insane returns. All alts will pump, but if you get in the right ones, you're going to get really, really good returns.

It's like a like an AI last year. >> Exactly. Exactly. So AI last year, NFTTS in 2021. Um so like if you were in virtuals, um anywhere before I want to say middle of October of 2021. Um let's see when it pumped. Yeah. So like October, even by October 11th, you could have gotten in virtuals like sub60 million and it went over $4 billion circulating, right? So we're talking in insane like 50x's >> um you know, if you got an AI 16Z early, we all we know all the tickers from life cycle, right? Um

>> if you if you get in November and like sometimes even December, there's plenty of new things that are launching. there's thing, you know, you can make money. I made money in AI even though I wasn't in any of these tickers early on. But so long story short, identifying this, I'm like, okay, this year, this is a big year, four-year cycle, blah blah blah. Um, old season should be big. If I can figure out the meta, then I I can I can uh make some good money. And so some of the things that I was looking for was one like okay is this something that can really break out in terms of the narrative around it right so AI last year if you think about

chat GBT right um claude cursor every AI exploded last year obviously it was around before but on a consumer level it exploded last year so that was kind of the platform for the AI narrative to take off in crypto right um and so I I last two months I've been looking around. I'm like, is it going to be creator coins, internet capital markets, streamer coins? Is it going to be NFTTS on Telegram? >> Exactly. Pokemon cards. We saw the card ticker, right? I even considered that. But um none of them had like the the right setup I was looking for. And this whole time the timeline's just talking non-stop about prediction markets, right? We're seeing VCs throwing money

at new prediction market startups and at a consumer level like it's out there now. Like prediction markets are not like this niche crypto thing. It's well known in the space. So it has a very similar setup to what I felt like we had with AI last year. And exactly to your point how you introed in, I'm over here trading Poly Market and I'm not even thinking of are there liquid coins out there, you know, is this going to be the meta? Is this going to be the thing that takes off and breaks off in Q4? And it's lining up pretty well that way when you just see the continued exploding attention that prediction markets are getting. So I'm like, cool. If this is going to be the meta, then there's

tokens out right now that are probably going to capture a lot of attention, get bit up very high, and then there's also going to be protocols out there that don't have tokens yet. And you can get in early and airdrop farm them. We all know how I'm not a big airdrop farmer personally, but we know how well Blur was. Season 1 was like insane for NFT people if you got in early and did it. Um, same with uh hype, right? Um, so like two things I was looking for is basically cool, I'm going to invest in the tokens that exist now that I like or I think that have promise and then I'm going to have a stack that I'm going to use to uh experiment with protocols that probably will drop a token. And then

also knowing that there's going to be new token drops in Q4 for prediction markets and having some liquid. So I basically allocated like X to this prediction market meta thesis. I put half in now and then the rest I'm going to throw in at new things that are coming. >> See I like I like there's a lot of things I like about this thesis too because I think that that your idea of like the Q4 always has some like thing is also like that that thing is always tied to like maybe this will >> it sounds cheesy but it's like maybe this will be the main use case of crypto. It's always something like even right now it's like okay punk strategy it's like well that's not a use case of crypto that's just like a super ponzi to reboot NFTs we've already been through

NFTs Q4 2021 we were like holy [ __ ] man everyone is going to have an NFT you know they were running apes are running their campaign on like Jimmy Kimmel and Bieber you know it was like holy [ __ ] like NFTs might actually define how we use the internet now like that's the [ __ ] we would say >> and% >> and then they didn't but then we had two years of bare market then last year Q4 it's like everybody was like oh my god Of course AI and crypto that's >> exactly >> naturally. Of course. >> So it has to be something that you can do that too. >> That's it. And all these startups, right? Like AI is so funny, right? It was like all these ideas like we're going to go build this. It's just another bot that tweets. But people like

even the even the silly ones like the bully one, >> right? Was it his name? Was it Billy? Was it what was it like? That one ran to like 300 mil. It was >> AIXBT ran account. That's mean >> 700 million. like, "Yeah, they're [ __ ] crazy." >> All it did was tweet and it went to $700 million, >> but but there was a brief time where we were like, "This is actually going to be it. This AI16Z, you know what I mean? All this [ __ ] is going to be it." So, totally like out of all the metas right now, I totally, you know, [ __ ] it. people are trying to push robotics like like sure >> literally I looked at crypto robotics and I tried to sell myself on it and then I'm like dude imagine like what you just said where you're like AI crypto

right or NFTTS crypto right like being like robotics crypto I'm like dude this is something like who's going to be able to explain this narrative to people or like have it make like clear breakout sense also robotics is really hard like someone can't just launch a robotics startup and be like, "Cool, we have a functioning robot now with >> at least AI." At least AI is like, "Well, you use chat GPT, >> you know what I mean? One of the hottest startup of the last two years AI company." You know what I mean? It's like robotics. I'm like, I have no robotics in my life. Like there's like even Vader I saw today, it's like he's making his own AI glasses and it's like, okay, it's kind of robotics, but it's like not really. It's kind of wearables like your computer.

>> Maybe 20 2030 Q4 >> maybe. Yeah, we'll come back. We'll come back around that. >> Yeah, I can see robotics maybe 2030. >> What I like about prediction markets is that you have a massive primitive that has been one of the most bullish industries that's grown the most the last 15 years since they legalized sports betting, right? Since they turned around sports betting and Adam Silver was pining for it when he took over as NBA commissioner. had this huge change >> um of of acceptance of betting and now you watch any sports broadcast it's like betting betting betting betting betting betting you know >> and that's where there's a it's a great place to invest >> and you have massive startups have come out of that DraftKings everything and that's specifically sports but now

naturally you know sports is only you still do prediction markets for sports like sports is so pigeon holed it's like you don't like sports this [ __ ] you're [ __ ] all for you but now you can bet on literally anything else politics pop culture all this other [ __ ] >> and The idea that the two largest prediction markets are cryptonative right there. I could just stop right there and immediately you have that same like well >> that's a that's a product market fit for crypto. >> Exactly. >> Just like AI was. >> Exactly.

>> Except except these products have been around for a long time. Poly market has been around for a couple years and came to define things like the the Now I'm ranting because I'm supposed to be interviewing you, but it's like even the election last year. It was like you know you know which market was right was Poly Market. Yeah, exactly. >> That was right. Everybody else falls 5050. We don't know what's going to happen. All the market was like, "Yo, 75% Trump's winning." >> Yeah, exactly. With hundreds of millions of dollars, you know, bet on it. >> God, I remember seeing those clips come in around this time a year ago. People be like, "Who just put $20 million?" >> Yeah, it was this French trader. >> How do you know that, right? But boom, they nailed it. So, I I really love this thesis because and I think it's also

something where I was just speaking from like as a stupid trader where it's something where it's like the the my natural inclination kicks and I'm a very bad trader is to be like, well, everybody knows about prediction markets. I'm way too late. >> Yeah, >> I'm way too late to get in on this because it's nothing new. >> Yeah. >> But I think that that's when you have to really dig in. So, um yeah, thanks for explaining all that. That's really smart. If long meetings and judgmental bankers are your thing, Nexo is probably not. Nexo is a premier wealth platform built for people who value their time and money. It's built for people who have idle cash lying around and want it to grow fast. Whether it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even Forex pegged assets like USDT or USDC, Nexo offers up to 14%

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Ready to lend like a bank and get more than the 5% A is offering you. Download the Figure Markets app today and get 9% on your idol funds. Go to milkroad.com/figure markets. >> I feel like you have a lot to say more on what I just said so far. >> Yeah, you're you're 100% spot on. And I mean it's very easy for a trader to think cuz I remember like even with virtuals I was like, man, I'm late to this when it was at 100 million or 200 million. It went to, you know, 4.5 million. And like I I do think that with prediction markets, we're still super early because we're like in we're in this scurve of user new users coming on volume like what's what Khi's doing with the sports prediction markets and now

the parlays that they just launched. >> It's just it's going to the volume's just going to come insane. It be insane then it's going to bleed over into these other markets. And like to your point with like uh sports betting um you know you have your DraftKings, you have your FanDuel that's like KHI and Poly Market, right? But then you have all of these other startups around it, right? And then you have things like the Sleeper app for fantasy football, right? There's so many niches within the the big thing. And I think that's what we're going to see play out here. So I look at it, there's platforms, right? Then there's tooling, software, an analytics, right?

Um, and then there's, and this is going to sound crazy, but then there's going to be AI AI agents or like protocols that actively trade these. Maybe not AI agents, but like uh, think of like a hyperlquid like vault where someone's going to be here. I'm a >> There's one that I've been hot on for a while and that we we follow a lot in Milk Road. So, it's a perfect example of one. >> Yeah. So, so that's how I'm that's how I'm looking at it because if you think Poly Market if they airdrop their token in let's say Q1 2026 with how prediction markets are trending this thing could come out FDV 20 billion like it could come out very very very

big. might that [ __ ] >> And then that what what that means is that's the pricing anchor for all of these other liquid tokens in the prediction market space. As long as they're successful since since it's like, okay, we're early, relatively early to Q4, there's going to be other launches, there's no guarantee like the ones that I'm picking, all of them are going to do well. Some of them may stink. Some of them may do great. That's why I also have that liquid other half. And as we're going through this, when I'm like, okay, this is a lagard. this is a winner. You know, I can I can kind of shift and rotate, but I'm looking at there's there's platforms out there. So, you got Kashi Poly Market under there.

You got like myriad markets. No liquid token, but you could farm that. There's going to probably be an airdrop there, right? So, if you have prediction markets there that you like, you can you can um trade that. But then um one of the tickers I like, it's called PQE. They just they just uh rebranded to go. This is the start. This is the start of the the the tickers. Here we go. We're starting. Okay. This is the start. You could start at this point if you just wanted the alpha. >> Exactly. So, PQuel is one that um >> is is doing uh uh pretty well. It ju they just rebranded to PMX and they launched a whole thing. Their their their whole pitch basically is anyone can launch a market on here. It's

resolved by us. So anyone can propose a market and then they do a different style to the how liquidity is formed. Basically everybody like puts in liquidity for the market before it starts and people that put liquidity in the market can't lose. So it's it's like risk-free APR. So they're going to be able to get a lot of liquidity in on all of these markets. Um and then they're going to Yeah. Yeah. So they're they're uh they're all their uh social links still link to the >> the old >> Exactly. Yeah. So it's PMX.

>> So now they're they're a liquidity provider for markets. >> Now right um right here. So I'm I'm sending it to you in private chat. >> Oh, >> they just rebranded to this. Um >> got it. >> Yeah. So they're an actual platform. So you'll be able to come in, you could come in and you could create a market um >> liquidity providers can provide liquidity before the market starts and all liquidity providers have no risk on market making or providing liquidity. Um just because of how the pools are set at launch. Um, so these are the kinds of things that I'm looking for for um platform plays is things things that are

trying to like fit into different slots um or trying different approaches, right? Just derivatives of >> what does their token do? What does this token do? Like what does >> Great question. Um I don't even know. I want to say that uh >> you don't have to you don't have to. It probably it probably they probably will do some sort of like fee buyback right into the token >> would be my guess. >> I you know you know what's funny too I just want to comment on that is that lately >> when I'm like researching tickers and stuff like that I'm like what's the use case of this token? I'm like well we used to ask that but now now it's like you have like a year or two of precedent of other tokens laying the way that's like your token doesn't have to do

anything. You just has to I just have to tie to your protocol's revenue in some way right so you can do buybacks burnings whatever the [ __ ] you're doing. You know what I Like that's all just if if they haven't announced that know that they can >> and you don't it's kind of like road map >> with they can do staking for reduced fees on the platform. >> That's it. There's a bunch of different utilities that have been laid out that you can like assume that it's like most well thoughtout platforms and apps there's like a 90% chance they'll start to do those when they're ready to really like pump the chart. Right. So >> exactly let the levers get in now and then and then pump the chart later with that kind of stuff.

>> Exactly. And my eyes are really on um base and Salana just how we saw with AI, right? That's where the setups were in terms of play. So this is on Salana. Um so I I like the setup over here. Um and then there's and I think they're going to have some pretty good volume. But yeah, they they lay out and you know, they're partnered with Meteor, but they lay out exactly how um >> so they pre-sales of a market. >> Exactly. And the reason why this is interesting is because by them >> frontloading all the liquidity then when you mint the liquidity it's like uh >> it's like if everybody provided

liquidity and you got 50/50%. So there's like no there's no way no matter how the the outcome happens >> um that that you that you like lose money. That's how they >> lose money. Yeah. >> Yeah. And so then cuz with a lot of small markets and prediction markets, people don't want to place liquidity on clubs because you have to like take one side risk on one side of the market, right? So poly market and cash, you get a ton of volume on these big markets. But then some markets, it's hard for them to get volume because like who's on the other side just naked market making, you know, against retail with no way to hedge out. Oh, dude. It's one of the biggest problems on like poly market especially. You know, I'm in Canada and

I'm like, "Okay, let's go look at like the NHL markets." And I'm like, "Oh, this is a good one." It's like the volume is like $500 and I'm like, "It's not >> exactly." And the order books are so on this like the chart will just almost resolve, you know? >> Exactly. Seriously, though. So, that's a big problem. So, like seeing these guys try to like solve for this, >> I'm like, "Cool. I'll I'll take a a bet on these guys." And then there's a couple other liquid tokens in the platform space. I'm just looking at uh Coin Gecko's prediction. >> Does Sorry. So, PMX, do they do they host the market as well? >> Yeah. So, they're the platform.

>> They are the platform. >> Yeah. So, they're the front end. So, they're >> Exactly. They're a Poly Market call sheet competitor. >> Got it. Okay. Okay. Okay. Great. Okay. Great. That's a That's a fantastic pick. That's a great first one. Okay. >> Yeah. And then I think just them like partnering with Meteora and just being able to get some of uh that stuff in is is going to be some additional juice for them. But then if you look at uh the prediction markets uh category on coin gecko um SX network is a big one 45 million. So um that's actually up a a good amount already from when I >> uh shared but once again it can still like a lot of these things you're looking at them in their sub50 million market cap. And if Poly Market's going

to come out with a >> 15 20 billion FTV, you got to think kind of successful third tier. >> Mhm. >> Would be worth like 500 million, right? So like a lot of these you could say like and once again it's like you're you're taking the risk that some of these people may not be successful or get a lot of volume, but I think if this narrative takes off, they'll just be lagards and you can cut them for a 50% or a 2x, you know what I mean? and rotate into the things that are getting traction. >> You don't you don't even need that either. Like the thing is is like I think what we forget about AI is that it was just like anything goes at one point.

>> You know what I mean? It was just like [ __ ] any any new thing. >> Like there was this AI agent platform. It was kind of like a virtuals called uh Wu on Salana and it went to like 350 million. Top hat went to like over 100 million. >> NFTs. I had the Wu like NF no that was virtual waifuss anyways. Yeah. Like I had that like it's Yeah. Once you you know I think I think the bet on these is that like you're trying to bet on these things hitting like a 10 or 20 or like 100x from here >> when you get to like a peak hysteria of markets are like the thing that we absolutely need >> to get everything else when they hit a euphoria which they haven't. They've

kind of dabbled, but it's only been like, oh, because of like parley market news, they did a raise. Exactly. You know, >> and so there's always crazy Ponzi [ __ ] that happens like poly markets. >> Exactly. You know, all this everyone's going to it's going to be a pricing anchor and everything else is going to get priced off of it. And so it's like, cool, if you're semisuccessful as a platform, you're going to be in the hundreds of millions. So SX and uh overtime, so ticker SX and ticker over, they're both the same. their sports books right now like crypto onchain sports books that have had traction for a period of time.

>> SX already looks like they're pivoting into prediction markets and I think overtime could potentially as well. But what I like is that for both of these it's like okay they already have volume they've already had traction like running this kind of operation for them then to you know add into prediction markets. Isn't that crazy? So, um, th I think those are just other platform plays. And then the last platform play is true over on base. So, it's just another prediction market. It's only at 13 million cuz they're not getting a ton of volume and traction yet. But, as we saw with virtuals, as we saw with AI6Z on Salana and Bass, you're always like each of those communities is going to

pick a winner. So, I could see True doing um pretty well over there. And once again, these things are really low market caps. Like you talked about Vader. Vader went uh to the hundreds of millions, right? So thinking like something like True um as they as they know this one. Yeah. I was tracking the ticket for this for a long time. >> Yeah. >> Okay. >> Yeah. So they they're they're on base. I think it could be Yeah. I don't know what's going on there. >> Um but yeah, so I think once again it's like Yeah. Okay. Maybe they don't have a lot of volume on their platform right now, but it's a 13 million market cap ticker prediction market. Infra is all set up. It's on base.

>> If this thesis plays out, I think that can do. >> How do you allocate how do you allocate this? Because you said in your post you're doing 15% of your portfolio. >> Yeah. >> Um to these markets. How do you how do you choose what you're doing between like uh PMX and these other ones? >> Yeah. So let's just say like I how I usually like to have is like three tiers of things. Uh like so let's just assume numbers. My high risk stabs would be 1K. My medium conviction would be 2 and a halfK. And if I really love the project it would be like 5K. So for like flipper and pecool I put in 5K just in this example. Rain true SX over I put in 2 and 1/2K. And then the PM and

Poly Bro, which were both super low tickers, I put in like 1K, that kind of equivalent, right? So my my biggest plays are are like, you know, double the medium, which are double the small ones. Um, >> okay. >> So those what's your target? What's your like what's your >> Are you And obviously it probably has to base like you're just going to wait for that peak euphoria moment. >> Yeah, exactly. >> Yeah, >> it it's more it's more like timing. Uh yeah, timing and like feeling target on these things. H having said that >> as these things gain traction, lose traction, new entrance come in, I'm totally fine with like rotating bags. So I could totally be wrong on PMX or I could totally be wrong on Flipper. And I

think those will still go up with everything. But if I'm like, hey, this one over here is really getting the traction, you know, I I'll cut and just keep the same amount of exposure to the thesis, but rotate. Yeah, that's like the approach that I'm taking. >> Okay. >> Flipper is an interesting one. So like I I think PMX just based on the price action and what it's doing is a little bit lower risk but higher market cap and flipper is a little bit higher risk like out of those two picks. So Flipper is trying to be and this is the thing that I'm really interested in with prediction markets. Flipper is trying to be like an aggregation layer, right? So basically you could go into flipper and like connect your poly market and connect your call sheet and collect connect eventually connect your myriad, right?

>> And and then trade all through one dashboard, >> right? There's a lot of those. Yeah. Billy do that for sports and everything. Yeah. >> 100%. And so they'll have some fees and stuff like, you know, for for doing that, but then they're also on top trying to do um things like leverage or or loaning. So they're trying to be uh the hub on top. If if polyark and koshi are like you know the NASDAQ the exchanges right this is like an Erade. This is trying to be like an Erade right as we know like if you've done memecoins bolt all you know there's trading bots you know or trading things. So, this is kind of in the aggregation layer slash trading bot um area, which I think this is a little bit more of a volatile

market, but there will be a winner in this whether it's Flipper or something else that'll really take off because they'll just build the they'll build the Bloomberg terminal Erade for for these markets and every you know, lots of people will just use it because it's way easier. >> Um and and they'll they'll get a lot of traction that way. Um, >> do any of these have big backers or anything like that? >> The the Rain. So, like the Rain one got a >> angel investment from uh F-Wiz. He was at Polygon, then he moved to um >> Optimism. Um, so like I thought that was pretty interesting with the the rain ticker. And so like the rain ticker one is trying to be like a AI we're going to

and we're going to see a lot of this like AIX prediction markets, right? So whether whether it's an AI agent that they're like training up to trade these things better or whether it's like a AI analyst that's like trying to give you hey here's your odds on like here's what we think the odds or this market according to our analysis is underpriced. Uh but yeah, Flipper is just straight like aggregation layer trading on top of all these things. Um >> which I think could be interesting. But once again, I think it uh the platforms have a level of risk, but like platforms kind of as long as they can get some traction like sucks everyone. Like platforms was virtuals and AI6Z, right?

Those were the biggest moves ever. So like the platforms are where you can make a ton of money if you can catch like a Vader AI16Z or sorry a Vader um Zerebro um you know th those other kind of ones uh you can do very well it's just higher risk because there's going to be a lot of competition in that. Um, so like the AI agent prediction market things, those are really easy just for other people to get up the door. Like >> building a aggregation layer that's a little bit more sticky. Building a a platform is a little bit more sticky. So I think like Polybro, if you look at the Polybro one, um, I want to say that's

>> this like low cap one is what you're talking. >> Yeah. So I think that's Yeah. And so like that's once again why I only put in the lowest amount like and I think I gotten that one maybe relatively late. Like I think I gotten that one at 1 million. >> Um but uh this is another one where it's trying to be an AI agent >> layer quant giving you analysis stuff like that. >> Okay. Um, the ones I'd be more bullish on in this versus like an AI agent that gives you tries to give you edge trading, those plays I don't love as much because um the more people that use the surface that use the service, any arbitrage gets

taken out, right? Like if an AI agent really does have an edge and it has a thousand people using it, then they're just going to eliminate the edge versus like a more closed source thing where they're like, "We're building this AI agent >> and like it buys back the token with it the profits it makes or something like that, right? But it's like it's it's running its own quant brain. That kind of stuff I think could be more interesting." Um, >> but yeah, it's still really early. There's not a crap ton of tickers out right now. Mhm. >> Um, so that's why I put most of my money on PQ, true, RAIN, SX, Over.

>> What was Rain again? Sorry, what was what was Rain? >> Yes, that's the one. F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F Wiz Few Wiz F. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, if you pull it up, just really nice website. >> Um big website guy. >> Mhm. >> But yeah, they're they're trying to be um future of autonomous. Yeah. Yeah. AI agents and sports. >> AI agents exports. So now they're kind of >> It's funny that a lot of the stuff is still sports. It's, you know, and I guess that's also like just the biggest actual like betting market that there is. But it's funny to me that it's a lot of it like like I feel like what defined Poly Market wasn't sports.

>> Yes, very much place where you could bet on not sports >> yet. Yet a lot of these are still like sports f I guess because sports are something that happens like all the time and it's a good way to kind of like bring in some betters. where it's like it'll take years for us to get used to betting on other things. >> Exactly. >> That's why Ki is doing so well is because they're focusing a lot on sports right now and it's just like an easy >> easy one to get other uh like get existing customers that already do sports. Uh but yeah, I'm more bullish on prediction markets outside of sports because I think that's just like a nent market like Poly Market launched uh these

markets where you could uh predict earnings beats and in the stock market previously, right? If you thought a company was going to beat earnings, >> it's not like you can just long them because they can beat earnings but they don't beat them by enough and it dumps, right? Or it's flat. Um, and it's really cool just to be able to be like, cool, I think Caso is gonna beat earnings, right? So, that's a really interesting financial market to me or this political markets are super interesting. Um, >> sorry, did you say this that rain maker is part is like has the poly market badge.

>> Yeah. So, but those are easy to get. So, they have the they have like the not easy to get, but like >> if you're >> Yeah. If you're a builder >> market builders. >> Yeah. >> Oh, >> yeah. So this is a cool place where you can see all of the >> Oh wow. Holy [ __ ] [ __ ] man. >> Exactly. So this this is a also like a perfect example of you could just sift through these. >> Mhm. >> And and look for the ones that have tickers >> and don't have tickers and just like the ones that you think are going to do the best cuz in each of these >> I didn't know this existed. Holy [ __ ] man. Yeah, >> partners >> cuz like uh you know so in like the trading the trading section the AI agent

section those are both going to be very interesting derivative plays to poly market dude the I mean honestly just looking at this the play is clearly just the poly market token >> seriously >> it doesn't exist yet but it's like you're saying like buy the virtuals or the i16z it's like well that's poly market you know what I mean like have a token yet >> but like% say like, you know, and I love the pics you've given us, >> and I would also look for just like how can I just automate as much volume on Poly Market as possible >> just to rack up my score or whatever I'm going to need >> to get >> 100%. And that's totally what I'm doing is is trading a lot on Poly Market. It's going to be the best token

>> um out there. But if you think about if Poly Market comes out at 10 20 billion FTV, then whatever the successful things underneath it >> Mhm. that have liquid tokens are there's going to be multiple in the hundreds of millions. Maybe one that can get to a billion. >> Oh, totally. And there's going to be a few of these that's like Poly Market puts out a thing and they're going to and you know and people will be like well you know who got the highest allocation was people that were using Poly Trader or using Rain or something. You know what I mean? Like and then that's going to that token will blow up and the other ones will die >> and >> Exactly. Like you see in AI agents you have Polyro. So that's the ticker we just looked at. Then you have Billy Bets

that launched on virtuals. >> Yeah. >> They migrated. Yeah. >> Yeah. And >> K is doing Kos is doing the same thing too. They also have a bit of an arms race more like influencer based, but they also have like they partnered with Sire and and a few other platforms also. So, so it's this kind of like hungry hungry hippos between the two of them of like getting all these uh you know tech partners to to integrate their >> and and that's why I like stuff like Flipper where they're trying to be the trading aggregation layer on top of all of the markets because it's >> they're they don't have to attach their, >> you know, cart to a single horse. They can >> they can work with them all and do well with them all.

>> Um >> yeah, so anyways, like that's that's that's the thesis. It's still very early. Once again, virtuals, well, relatively early. Virtuals started taking off in a big way. >> Two weeks from now, so I I'm not expecting some of these things to be fireworks right away, but I do think they're going to start getting bids. And then it'll be very telling the ones that the ones that blow up. But then things like uh Vader and things like AI6Z, those didn't even come out until November, right? So part of it is also just keeping enough of the allocation that you want to put into this liquid and just keeping tabs on this market and seeing where the traction is going,

seeing how the how the meta is shaping up. But yeah, just really it really checked off a lot of boxes for me because it has the same setup to AI last year and if you look if you look this year just across the timeline it's everything prediction markets VCs are backing me markets and uh limitless on Salana just did a big raise like the money is flowing here why wouldn't the altcoins >> in this sector start catching mega bids? Yeah. And I think you always have to remember that it's like yeah as the majors moon and then people take profits and it's and people just like are so flush with cash especially rates going down that it's like the further down the risk curve you go appetite for like the really big narrative and we haven't really I feel

like we haven't had like an actual like quarterly big narrative in a while. You know what I mean? I feel like there wasn't sure pump had its thing and these different you know different you know the plasmas and the assort per decks. You know what I mean? Like things like that. It's like those are good, but it's like pers existed before. Suddenly everybody just wanted to be >> in like a true meta. There was like a bunch of things to trade and then usually they have the ability that like new tickers or new things were coming out all the time. That's why AI uh pumped so hard because it was like people could just spin up new ideas, >> build a new agent on virtual >> ideas, new VCs could come in, new like oh this person who's known for this is

launching of this, you know, like that's always been like even virtuals the game was to like literally just look at the dev wallets and find the people on Twitter which are like worth half the time and you% you forget who's launching something before they even announce it, right? So >> So like I'll I'll I'll feel toppy. I'll feel toppy when the poly market token comes out or if like on pump fund we have like a new AI prediction market agent you know going to 10 million every day then I'll start being like okay this is starting to get a little silly but right now when I look at the market caps a lot of these things so the platforms that I shared only two are at 50 million that's PMX and SX the the rest are between 10 and 25 million right so a lot of these still have 10

X's is if they get traction and then and then the AI agent and and stuff like flipper, all of those are like under $10 million market cap. So, you're doing higher risk, you know, bets on these things with a thought process that this if this meta takes charge, then going into the end of October and then all the way through November, it's going to be charts are just going to go up and to the right. >> Yeah. Yeah. And so something at a million if it gets some traction it going to 50 is not crazy at all. >> That's also something where it's like you know that type of I remember AI too.

It was like something where people were like that's [ __ ] stupid, you know, for the first couple months until it was undeniable. And it was something where it's like >> it almost seems kind of lame. I don't know how else to put it. It's just it's not as like sexy as some of the new stuff, right? Since it's already out there and a lot of these tickers, it's like, man, these are just these are platforms. Like it's boring. You know what I mean? Like it's not as like fun. Um, but I feel like that's when you easily miss the boat. Even the ones you're talking about, even PMX and stuff like that, man, it's like we did this podcast a month ago, you'd be up 20x, right? So, um, you know, that's that's that's that's really great. Um, >> yeah. And I and I also know with like

the virtuals chart, >> just watching that thing just continue go up in the right and I'm like I early on in like October, I was like, this is done. You know what I mean? And then in November, I'm buying all the things. Like that's how quick it can change >> in a month. >> Um, and I do website. Yeah, exactly. And I do think it's bullish. You want people that don't think it's going to be it. If if it's consensus for everybody, then the price probably is already fair value for everything. So, it's like good if like AI in early October, people are like an AI agent with a token, this is dumb. Month later, everybody's trading it. So, you would if if this works out, it'd be the same kind of thing where half the people that you say they're like prediction markets, ah, that's

really just polyark and calcium and they won. Why would I do anything else? Right? and then a month later they're like, "Oh my god, there's millions being thrown around through these trading bots every week." >> You know, >> how do we um how do we trench this stuff? Because these are all great picks and like you're saying, it's like there there's there will be some traction and there'll be some new ideas. Maybe the Vader isn't out yet. How do we find these? >> How do you actually like what's about because even something like virtuals is like, "Well, just look at virtuals every day, right? Or just go on the AI6Z discord and talk to people and that was it. That's all you needed. you need to do anything else for this. It seems like it's a little bit more scattered. So, how do we find them?

>> Yeah, that's I think that's a great question. Um, definitely I don't I don't really trench so hard, but uh in in different discords, like you know, if you in a discord and there are people trenching, you will see people just start to share tickers of of new stuff coming out and you just have to keep tabs on it. Uh there's no like ICO beast of prediction market, you know, meta on Twitter right now. There will not predicted recently that there would be. >> Yeah. But there may be soon, right? 100%.

>> Well, they probably exist. We just don't know. They're just not. They're still 3,000 followers like he was. >> Exactly. And so I think just just like looking around and if you find a ticker, go see the other people that have been talking about the ticker for a couple of weeks. Look at their profile. Be like, what else are they interested in? Right? Like when I posted this thing PMX, I had some person like retweeted and was like, "Look, the threaders are have f like the first Threader has found PMX, right? Higher." Right. I'm like, "Okay, this guy's probably been on this thing [ __ ] since $2 million." Right.

>> For a long time. >> Exactly. So, what is this person what are they also looking at in the in the space? Um, and then also just as as simple as it sounds, I like just following like, you know, Coin Gecko the categories, right? Because you'll >> yeah, >> you you'll get a couple interesting things and then usually from there it's easier to find the, you know, find the other things. So, at least you get a category understanding. But here's the interesting thing. So, like AI agents, right, virtuals has like Billy Bets. They have this other ticker called uh preddy which is a couple mill. So I would on just to your point keep an eye on virtuals. I

think for AI X prediction market stuff I would keep an eye on virtuals because I think that's a great launchpad and a lot of these things will launch through that or even uh I want to say flipper or I want to say uh there's this other one PM is the ticker. It's it's a super low cap um sort of trying to be a flipper. Like one or two of those launch through the believe app >> u funny enough. >> So a lot of these things launch through these launchpads. Um so keeping keeping tabs on the launchpads for new stuff and just like saying okay what's coming or what's been out in the past week and just seeing if anything from prediction markets happen. I think that's good um a good way to like trench them and find

them. And also, if you're just >> Yeah. >> If you're active or you know someone that's active in prediction markets, these people are going to naturally find these things, right? They're going to be like "Oh hey like >> I've started using this website every single day um to to do my prediction market stuff." Then you're you'll be like, "Huh, okay. Let me like let me see what what this guy's doing." Uh and then also knowing in this in this space I do think like AI agents it was really easy just like launch a token with the thing and go how prediction markets are structured there will be really big cooks that have to be farmed. So like myriad has to be farmed right there's going to be things out there that you have to like use the protocol and then

you can get an airdrop. Once again I'm not great at those things but um I'll I'll definitely keep tabs on it. Do you remember uh Cookie Dow um from the AI space? >> Yeah, I still go I still go to that website sometimes cuz they have like I love their like Kaido style like when I need a Twitter and I want to see who's like been tweeting about it. I still use that. >> Yes, exactly. So, think think about like a prediction market analytic site for that that people go to every day. And then look at the cookie ticker, dude. In on October 24th, it was 1.7 million, right? By November 20th, it's 2.7 million. By December 15th, it's 13 million. And by January 15th, it's 180 million. So you're talking about this

thing did 180x on its token >> in a period of a month and a half and it didn't even start until November. So like when you when you're looking at these these prediction market plays you're like this thing's at a [ __ ] $1.2 million market cap. Like what are what are we talking about here? And it's like okay go go pull up Cookie Dow and you'll see for the entire month of October they were at a $ 1.5 million market cap and then kaboom goes to the moon. So these valuations can sound like no one's interested in them until everyone's interested in them. And then me, I bought the cookie coin. I bought it at 33 million and sold it for like 90. Right. But that's I was I was buying

someone's 33x. >> Mhm. That's the level of of so like when you're trading things for 3x's you can make some money but if you can get even a thousand bucks into something that's going to go to 100 million >> then you're then you know then you're making 50k even if you're trimming all the way up that's massive right so those are the things that I'm looking for so if there's an analytic site that's like like cookie >> for prediction markets and I hear about people using it bang like cool I'll throw in a grand into that or I'll throw two grand into that depending on how much money I have and I really do think if prediction markets keep going up and to the right in Q4 and it's looking like they're going to that means poly market

is going to their valuation's going to repric up Koshi's valuation is going to repric up and that's going to be the anchor pricing for everything underneath it and those things are going to go bananas and then you know come December come January you're going to be like cool now I'm going to get out of this what was the what was the peak Eco top for for AI. What was like the moment that >> Trump coin? >> Yeah. No, no, no. But I'm saying AI itself like that's Trump. It killed everything. But I'm saying like >> yeah, >> what was like the top signal of AI where in retrospect that was an obvious time to sell? Because I think that that's the other thing too. It's like, hey man, you know, I totally want to follow you into this and and start trenching this stuff, but also it's like I'm not making these

bags. How do I know, you know, how am I going to be able to identify that is, right? >> Yeah. I mean, I think it I think it's when you see stuff that's really not that interesting going to absurd valuations really quick. So, if you remember like Zerbro launched in like the beginning of November. >> Yeah. >> And it just went it went to dude it went to 500 million. Just think really think about that. 500 million from a launch on pumpf fun in a month. And it's like what was that like AI XBT? You could at least tell from the the way that AIXBT had contextual awareness of current events and stuff. You can tell that whoever built AI XBT, it wasn't just a a chat

GBT bot. Like they had custom data feeds coming into this thing, right? And it was doing interesting analysis. And then you looked at like Zerbro and it sounded like an emo LA musician just like tweeting like it literally looked like a chatbt rapper with not that much effort put into it and it went to a half a billion dollars. That's when but the crazy thing is that was November 21st. So the market didn't even top there. It topped Zerebra then went to 650 million January 2nd. Um, >> you know, so that that's the thing is especially if you get in early on this stuff, it's going to seem really silly when the when there's still a little bit more um to go. But in my opinion, the

really interesting thing about this trade is that yes, for a lot of these things, they may have charged like the AI coins where they just went up and they crash all the way down. >> But these things are like prediction markets are going to have lasting power as a crypto adjacent market, right? We're literally talking about sports like sports betting and how that revolution like this could be a revolution some of these things and see look at me. I'm already sell I'm selling the the crazy right and this is how we got >> this is how we got in AI you know it was the same thing today oh chat GBT this chat GB rapper AIXBT is integrating custom millisecond data feeds and it's going to it's going to people are going

to airdrop it milliondoll NFTTS and everything uh but seriously though at least look at this all the stuff you can fall back and be like >> dude 20 2028 political election how much money is ki and and poly market going to do billions. Is there going to be billions, tens of billions bet on the the market? Um cuz especially with the US penetration like companies can hedge out risk based on what candidate wins, right? If you have government contracts, you know, if you're in an industry that this person says they're going to transform. Um, so the a lot of this stuff I think can have real lasting power. But I do think crypto Q4 mania a lot of things go crazy then they'll then

they'll sell and then you may look at the prediction market space and say hey it's massive and there's a couple other ages tokens that are doing really well but most of the stuff we were buying now went to zero you know um so I definitely am going to have the parachute ready to go in December you know January um on a lot of these things depending on the price action. Well, I think that's a great spot to call it, man. This is this has been fantastic insight. Awesome. I'm I'm going to pair this with a little newsletter on Wednesday, too. So, it'll come out at the same time, and I think people will be really into that. You know, I also I also, while we're talking, I figured out the Pico Top for AI, and I don't remember what that it was one of those Dow platforms, those AI

platforms. There's that one. I don't know what it was called, but like literally the top influencers. I remember like Thread Guy and Sammy, their allocation was worth like $2 million when it came. as like and they were like >> you know thread guy was like adviser and but there was like a list of 20 people that had allocations of like two three million and then there was like a list of like a 100 addresses that made like 2 to 300k and some of them >> were linked to like Twitter accounts that like were ghost Twitter accounts.

It was so clearly and and no offense to the guys who were involved, you know, that's you're a K, you make money like that. That's [ __ ] make that bag, baby. But there was it was such a clear five scam >> and >> like when things come out like that and it's like hundreds of millions of dollars and people that got a a $500 pre-sale is worth 300k. >> Some of the best AI traders that I knew at that point were like when that token goes live I'm putting [ __ ] a thousand soul in. And I was just like >> what the [ __ ] are you talking about?

Like that's clearly like a [ __ ] thing. Yeah. And that's when I knew like there's a part where you realize, you know, you're in these groups of people and you're all like aping and everyone's making money and you're like on to the next and there's a point where you kind of just somebody says something and you're like, >> "Oh, it's over. It's [ __ ] over. It's and somebody somebody who's made too much money is going back to the table for more and you know that they're just over they've gone >> and there's always a singular event like if you think about too greedy other side mint is example [ __ ] like Kevin Rose needs to raise like a $200 million pictures >> there were signs [ __ ] special you know what I mean other side burning $100 million of gas and we're still bidding

it at 10 e for other side even though it was 200,000 of is like there's a point where you just you look around and you're like, "Oh, we're in trouble." Like >> people are buying rares in a 100k collection for a quart million plus. >> You there's a point somebody says something at one point at the peak of those medias and you're like, "I think the canary is [ __ ] dead." >> And you're like, "Oh, >> I It's like super dead. It's actually been rotting for two days just knowing." >> You can't believe it. You're like, "But no, but no." Like, "But my bags, they're they're down 30%. They're going to come back." And then you need to just >> get out. get out.

>> You got that anchor, you know, to the top price it was at. So, um, but we're early. This is way before we're going to we're going to have you back. I'll have you back at that when I think that moment hits for prediction markets and you can tell us if you're out or not. >> Yes. I love it. >> Kicks, it's been an honor, man. Thank you so much for coming on the show. You guys can find this guy. What is it? What's your handle? Just kicks on. No, it's speculator art. You have >> I had speculator art back from my old NFT days cuz people would make fun of me for just flooring NFTts. And I'm like, "Hey guys, I'm just an art speculator here."

>> Dude, you're one of the only You're one of the one of the most prominent voices that I follow who still rocks the Moonbird. Uh, >> dude, I that thing was in the graveyard for a while. Brought it back. >> Hey, well, man, you get that token soon. That's great. You know, I had one of those at one point, but I I got out. I got out a long time ago. But anyways, uh, Kicks, my man, thank you, dude, for coming on the show. Uh, and we'll have you back soon. >> Thanks. Pleasure. We're sending Kyle Reedhead, our head of research to the UK's largest web 3 summit. I'm talking about Zebu Live happening October 21st and 22nd in London. Want to join? Use our code milk to get 20% off your tickets? Hit the link in the show notes and say hi to Kyle for us. Want insights

on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event. Subscribe to our channel and join the Milkro Daily and Pro Newsletters and start investing like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky.