The Next Bull Market | Roundup

Transcript

I think for the cycle to work in a big way, it has to be retail driven and or agent driven. Like Michael was saying before, like retail almost needs to interact with agents or agents need to interact with themselves and get this thing going and I I think that will happen. So, like that's what I'm bullish on in this next cycle. Hey everyone, quick disclaimer before we get into today's episode. Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Our guests and I may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

All right, everyone, welcome back to another episode of Bell Curve. You got me, Miles, Zev, how are we all doing? Great. It's finally >> Good afternoon, guys. Nice out in Boston, so everybody's in good mood. Um back outside for the first time in 6 months. It's lovely. I'm actually feeling a little bit guilty this morning. Chunk is getting neutered. Uh I dropped him off [laughter] at 7:30. And I I didn't expect to feel quite as bad as I did. It's just one of these crazy things that we've just normalized for dogs. It's like, "Hey, you are a little bit too energetic and you're turning people off, so we're just going to take your nuts off." Like it is.

I had the same problem with our pug, so I totally understand, Mike. Ah, [sighs] straight How did you Did you struggle mentally with Cuz I was that kid when I was young, all the teachers were like, "He can't sit still." It's like, "Yeah, I can't sit still. I'm a human male child. I can't sit still for 8 hours a day." And I just felt like that I was dropping this dog off and same thing. So, I felt a little guilty about it, honestly. After the 100th time it humps your leg, it's time to get it done, I think. Yeah. [laughter] Oh, god. It's also, you know, the aesthetics are consideration here as well.

>> [laughter] >> [ __ ] You can can tell the dogs that aren't neutered. You're like, "Oh, wonder what that guy's doing." Maybe they're a breeder. It's like, "Yeah." Nope. Just didn't want to lop his nuts off, but yeah, it's the Anyway, you know how when a prison inmate is like on death row and they get like a nice steak dinner, he's at least getting a couple slice of bacon tonight, so hopefully that's some consolation. >> [laughter] >> For uh Oh, buddy.

>> but Oh, buddy. All right, guys, we are going to be talking about um the next bull market and what the shape of it looks like. So, you know, I I think that one of the just to give some commentary around why we thought this episode was interesting to do right now is one, there've always been these kind of these um one, actually, I guess just the 4-year cycle is actually playing out for all the doubt, including from yours truly, it looks like it's playing out exactly to the T, right? So, there've been these There's kind of a if you've been around crypto for a number of years, there's kind of a reliable shape that these markets take, which is kind of the initial sell-off.

Actually, prices recover before sentiment. Bitcoin leads in spot and then you kind of get this series of rotation that looks like the use euthanasia coaster and the crap pumps the hardest until it all just goes kaput sideways 4 years later and rinse and repeat. And the question is, is it going to look different this time? And we're going to assess this across a whole bunch of different categories. So, whether or not this, you know, potential bull market, like what is the timing look like? Um You know, going to stay away from any specific price predictions, but last bull market in terms of pure peak to trough or I guess trough to peak price appreciation was not super good. You know, should we expect more of that? Is it going to be dispersion or beta going to return to the market? Like are we

going to get this crazy alt season casino that we'd seen in the past or is that just purely dead? So, we want to give thoughts and kind of assess on opine a little bit on what that might look like, but um just I suppose before we get into some of the specific categories, just curious to get your guys' perspectives and broad take. Like, how do you see this next year and a half or two playing out? First of all, has the bull market started again? Um or are we still a little ways out and there's still some sideways chop and pain before we get there? And what are your general you know, what are the kind of drivers that are going to inform your opinions as we go through this pod?

I mean, I don't feel like the bull market has started again. I'm to be fair, I'm not paying attention to prices like every day, but um I don't think any of us like in our gut feeling would would agree with that. Um I think in general like the game has gotten kind of harder every cycle. Um you can't just like even in the last one, the last one was pretty narrow, right? Like it wasn't just throw a dart at the board and like all of the coins basically go up. Um And I think that will persist, right?

It's it's going to be much more narrow, um thesis driven. And then even probably like the weird stuff will will also be quite narrow and like just, you know, come out of like PVP communities that love doing this stuff. Um But that side will be smaller and the stuff that wins, I think will be a little bit more like fundamental driven. Not that that's a hugely like controversial statement, but yeah. Zev, any initial thoughts? Yeah, I think the way I describe it right now is we're about 6 months into a pretty deep bear market. Traditionally, bear markets have lasted around 12 months before activity started recovering.

That kind of makes me think that by the end of this year, uh we'll be looking a little bit better. We won't be out of the woods yet, but I do think 2027 will be quite a good year and yeah, the rest of this year we've got a bit more to go. In terms of like what that actually looks like when it comes back, I do think that I'm of the opinion it'll be both fundamentally driven and narrative driven. I think that you know, let's see if these bills are passed in US and you know, it makes it easier for people to launch businesses and you know, generate revenues, etc. and classify things as securities or not, but I also think whether or not that happens, there's something to be said about I guess new technologies and narratives in in

crypto. I think right now like the space doesn't really have any narratives in terms of like there's not many new ideas or things coming that are really exciting. Like the only thing I would argue that is actually quite exciting is AI agents, but there's been a lot of noise and I also think >> You see that Allbirds pivoted to being an AI company? I'm curious. Allbirds. The VC shoe company pivoted to being an AI company and ripped 200% before the opening on the day.

I did not see that, but that goes to show you that, you know, where we're at right now in terms of the narrative is like it is AI and agents is what it used to be in crypto. If you mentioned blockchain, it'd go up 200% like the next day on the stock exchange. So, that's happening in AI right now. I think that would maybe even simmer a bit by the time the crypto bull market comes back. I think AI would just be a back-end technology in crypto in this next cycle, but I do think there'll be newer narratives that come out in this next cycle, which I'm like pretty excited about, which I don't think we've seen much of in the past. I can name a few right now, but uh yeah, like I think four to five come to mind like top of head. One, I think

network states is like a trend that I think will continue like even in this next bull market. Ideas on chain, how we sort of move around the world uh in new ways, I think there'll be some blockchain intersection there. I think quantum will impact this next cycle and there's going to be some massive quantum winners and I think that will definitely be a narrative that could potentially get us out of the bear market next year. I think privacy has been like really clear at the end of last cycle that people care about privacy now and it's becoming much more important in the age of AI. Money itself, you're seeing Zcash, etc. like kind of pumping even in the bear cycle, which I think is good signs for what how people value money. Um and obviously that is not really fundamentally driven. And I also think

things like DeFi that hasn't worked in the past uh that we've kind of like underrating right now. DeFi social as well. Like I think these things will matter in the next cycle. So, I think right now it's an interesting time to be looking at what people aren't talking about that could potentially drive us into this next cycle. So, I'm showing, by the way, for people who are following along on video, the most We did an analysis of DAS of the most discussed We did actually people, companies, topics, protocols, but these were the topics and it's basically backing up Zev what you're describing here. I mean, if you look if you combine agents and AI, you know, that even surpassed stablecoins, which should show you just how hot this topic is.

Um just personally on this We have a whole discussion point on sectors here, but I have a little bit of a different I I have a different viewpoint here on what I think is um going to be hot or like drive us into the next cycle, which is I'd be uh I mean, look, not to overly uh point towards these sentiment indicators, but I mean, I'm sure you guys remember back in 2017, there was a Long Island Iced Tea that rebranded to Long Island Blockchain and the stock pumped a bunch and like I I I just I feel and you know, simultaneously you see Basically, I think that the AI stuff is still too ahead of its skis. I don't think it's going to pull us and drive us into the next bull market. I think the RWA stuff and I think my my personal

perception here is I mean, there are two trends. There's Crypto is splitting into the worlds of world of just like stocks, like blue-chip stocks that are traded on exchanges and penny stocks. Crypto's been entirely penny stocks. It's kind of like stuff that trades on narrative, kind of pump and dumpy cabal type games and that's like kind of the world of penny stocks. It's like a little bit less regulated, a little gross. This is where like Jordan Belfort, you know, of the Wolf of Wall Street made all of his money. Crypto's been entirely a penny stock game. That game is going to continue to exist, but it is going to get dwarfed by the blue chip, you know, exchange-traded stock game which competes on compounding and all of the stuff that you would, you know, be relatively familiar with. So, I think there's that dynamic.

But and then when I think who who are going to be the winners there, I actually I kind of think this cycle is going to be DeFi 2.0 um because, you know, you know, in the same way that everyone kind of comes at crypto the same way. First you look at Bitcoin, then you then you think first you think that Bitcoin's a scam, then you're like, "Oh, no, this is actually really interesting." You start reading all these you know, Andreas Antonopoulos posts and stuff like that. Then you're like, "Wait, could you do more than Bitcoin?" Then you go to ETH and DeFi. And I think that the the price who is driving price discovery, it's the boomers here. There's a bunch of boomer money via now ETFs, but soon RIAs and stuff like that that's going to move into crypto. They're going to go through

the same process that we did and they're going to look at the world and say like, "What makes sense here?" And DeFi. So, honestly, the big winners like the fundamental compounders that I see this cycle are kind of like, you know, the Alchemy Morpho Sky Maple's Kaminos of the world, right? I think I think a lot of these Apollo type folks are going to look at this world and be like, "What? My goodness, this makes a ton of sense to me." Um so, anyway, that's like my I think that that this next cycle is just all about that um to be honest and I think that's going to completely dominate almost everything.

I mean, I think I largely agree with you, but in maybe my only like slight pushback is that um the stuff that that has like the, you know, the biggest like most speculative pumps and just like um uh has gains just on a relative basis that are the biggest is when it's like uh you're the market's like using its imagination of what the space could be, but it's not there yet, right? Um that's why I think Alteryx gets a random pump for like switching to AI, right? Um and so, what what you're talking about with like the compounders, right?

We're talking about um markets that have matured like verticals that have matured enough that you kind of know what this is going to be and you have more data to, you know, actually reason about what is like the biggest version of this and that's often like maybe not as uh doesn't get you to a valuation that is like very hand-wavy. It's like actually quite well-informed, right? And so, in some ways it's a higher hurdle, right? To get um those large institutional bids to like a Morpho um because they have more data to to work with and they're looking at, you know, comps that are public like, you know, fintech companies or something like that, right?

So, I agree with you, but I think that that is like the the challenge with those guys um for the for the blue chip established stuff. The challenge I would say with the blue chip DeFi guys is actually you it's very difficult to paint a compelling revenue picture to like tens of billions, which is what you want. But I don't think that matters yet. Um you know, I I love this framework of the market moves in between discounting the future too much to not discounting the future at all. It's like, you know, the idea being if you, you know, sometimes the market is kind of not it doesn't matter today. It's entirely forward-looking and don't worry about any of this current data. Um just entirely look at what the what, you

know, could be in the future. Um and then other times when that becomes too disappointing kind of like the I don't know, like the infra bubble that popped in crypto, then it you entirely ignore the future and you only focus on the present. And so, I think that we are currently entirely focused on the present um and we're going to move out like this soon um but yeah, I think that that's generally where we're at. Yeah, yes and no, right? Like agentic and AI were like two of the top five topics at DAS and I would think that like DAS is probably the of all the conferences the most focused on the present, the most focused on what's working, right? Tokenization, RWAs, vaults, all that good stuff. So, I agree with you, but like the mindshare piece

is very real. It's just more fun to like imagine what's possible than to look at what's going on. I think that's a good point, Miles, that, you know, even at DAS, I think crypto and AI is a very real vertical that is ex- actually kind of exploding, but just in ways that we don't fully comprehend and understand yet. Like I've seen a few pitches recently which I find kind of cool about like, you know, even agents becoming their own venture firms on chain and like can we invest in these agents that source their own deals and then invest in these teams? Like I can see that as a potential narrative next cycle and that's super cool and that's like obviously something that doesn't exist right now. So, I think especially this crypto and AI intersection, there's a lot that needs to be built that is

being built right now, especially on the infra kind of side and I feel like we don't even really understand the applications yet, but in terms of like the craziness when it comes back in the next bull cycle, I'm pretty confident we're going to have agents on these crypto rails like doing crazy things when it comes to like investing and people are going to be putting money into agents and like it's probably going to be like the ICO boom, but like agent-driven almost. Like I think every cycle's had its own new capital formation mechanism and you know, you've had NFTs, you know, DeFi, ICOs, like, you know, even layer ones to some extent. I kind of wonder if like it's almost obvious that agents are this next economic actor that people can speculate on and get money in and and if there will be some winners there, you know,

and actually maybe 12-18 months time. Like it's hard for me to see right now when the bottleneck will get solved in terms of like the trust really in these agents. Like how the hell do we trust these agents with our money? It seems like highly highly risky. Even teams I speak to right now that are really genuine startups, it's just like so much can go wrong. I think on the security side right now even like not even in crypto, but also in crypto like you're seeing all the hacks getting done. Like we we barely trust a smart contract anymore. So, like how do we trust an agent that's going to do what we think it's going to do? I think that will get solved actually technologically in the next 6-12 months and I wonder if like when this really really hard problem is solved that will unleash like a new era

for crypto. So, I feel like we're not there yet, but I could see it happening even with all the hype right now. All right, let's get into a couple of the sections here for this podcast. So, is the next market going to be bull market going to be broad or narrow? So, basically this idea is like there's been a lot of beta in crypto. And generally when there's a bull market going on in the past, um everything's kind of gone up at once, right? Some things went up more than others. That changed a little bit this last cycle. You really had to be in the right stuff if you weren't in Bitcoin to do well um like the hyper liquids of the world.

And so, in one camp, um you know, again in like if we were to pattern match to previous previous market cycle, even as a business operator, it kind of felt like everything just goes up at the same time. But now you're starting to see certain companies pull ahead of others, you're starting to see certain sectors perform extremely well while others are kind of dying. And so, do you think that the trend is going to be dispersion or everything goes up at the same time? I mean, yeah, I kind of referenced this at the beginning. I I I mean, I do think it's going to be like um more dispersed. I'm sorry. It's going to be dispersiony.

Yeah, it's going to be narrow. Like I I just don't see this like um everything catching a bid at the same time, but I do see like the drivers in are like the the distribution flows coming from like three categories. It's like the ETFs. So, like if advisors, financial advisors are all of a sudden getting like more demand to be like, "Okay, we should get that crypto allocation back up." Like that's going to go through ETFs and that's going to go to Bitcoin and like Solana will catch a bigger bid from that than they have in previous cycles. Um and then yeah, I think there's like the institutional buyers buying like, you know, the blue chips over like for the stuff that's actually working. Like I I really do think that that bid will happen and we're starting to see it already. Um

And then yeah, there's going to be a couple of narrow narrative-driven speculative things that, you know, are imagination-driven as Zeb was saying. Like and I think that's could be something to do with with agents and just giving them like a playground to go crazy on chain. Um It could be things that haven't worked in the past that all also have this new like agent angle to it. Like social plays that also incorporate agents in some to say DeSci yet cuz I know nothing about DeSci, but like yeah, stuff comes out of the woodwork um and it only needs like one thing to work and then you get a bunch of fast followers, right? Uh that

and then it becomes like a category. Yeah, I'm going to give a quick opinion here cuz I think Mike takes the other side. Uh my opinion is that it does all come back uh all at once. It does come roaring back. Not every single token like cuz now there's millions of tokens, so that would be almost impossible these days, but I think the top few hundred on CoinGecko, there's definitely some beta there and then some of them have alpha and they outperform the rest of the market as it all comes back. At the same time, I don't think What do you think though in terms of percentages like when you say it all comes back, like are you predicting five X's on like Stellar Lumens of the world or like is it like they go up 30%? Yeah, that's a that's a good question. I could see like when I

say it all comes back, I mean a lot of this stuff recovers. I don't know if they'll be reaching all-time highs again. In fact, that's probably what I'm a bit more bearish on. Like I think they won't reach all-time highs, but if they're down like 80 or 90%, I could see like many of these tokens having like a you know, like a small kind of run like a two or three X and like the bull market kind of starts like that and then you see bigger winners come out of that. Like that's traditionally what you've seen in bull cycles of like it all starts coming back a little bit and then some really jump out more than others. And so, I think that's where the dispersion comes in a little bit in terms of like what jumps out. And I think we've talked a lot in this podcast

about fundamentals and I'm definitely very bullish on fundamentals and I think some fundamentally driven assets will catch a massive bid. Like, you know, I don't want to name any names, but like I do think that this will happen. Um at the same time, I think the reverse is also true, where the things that aren't fundamental whatsoever will catch these ridiculous bids. And I think we have seen an example this week, which we talked about in the in the pre-call, which is like Rave DAO is up like 50 or 60X or something like that. And it's like you you guys tell me in this podcast right now how that's up 60X. Yeah, that cool like a bid. And so, I think for us to just sit here and say like, you know, these assets are never going to catch a bid anymore. Like Rave DAO, I I don't know what the valuation

was, but that sort of launched and I was like, I've been in I'm in the Rave DAO Telegram group. Like I see people I like know the people who started it. It's kind of cool. I didn't expect it to be like a $17 billion asset as of like yesterday. Like that's just absolutely insane. So, like how do we describe that in crypto? I don't think we can. Whereas like Morpheus, the trouble with his fundamental But but can we describe that though? Is isn't that just kebab pumping like semi-legal super shady? That's what I meant by like the penny stock world. Like I it's just crypto just did it on a bigger global scale, but like I would argue it's nothing new. It's like Why is that cool? Just like why is that cool?

Why why is that good in any in any way? I don't think it's cool. Like don't get me wrong, but it's more like it's bound to happen. Like it's the game that we don't play. I think it's a game that traders play in crypto. And I think it and and honestly like a lot of trading games in crypto keeps the whole industry alive. So, my point here before I hand you the mic Mike is going to be Uh yeah, I think both are going to happen. I think fundamentally driven assets will come back. I think all will come back together some bigger than others. And I think also narrative driven kind of like speculative things will come in a big way.

I think um I have a maybe a spicy prediction here as well in terms of what leads. Um but I'm gathering a little bit of a head of steam on this prediction. Um So, I I actually agree with that Dave. I just think I think that like on a like pick your random I'm thinking of like the Dino coins like an Algo or something like that. You know, it's like I think that those probably I think they do come back. Like everything kind of comes back at once and then the winners then you get dispersion probably like a couple months in. I like focused on selling their token. You know what I mean? Like there there is something to be said for like projects that are just good at it or just focused on selling the token instead of the product.

There's I mean get me up on my soapbox here, but you do you have to do both. Um we we've swung way too far, right? Like and now there's the perception that that's scammy and it's like talk to any public company CEO. They have to build a product and sell the stock at the same time. You have to do this like honestly the the biggest impediment to that is a bunch of founders saying I don't want to, which I totally understand. I wouldn't want to do it either, but I don't have a publicly traded listed instrument. So, unless you do it, your thing is going to go down. Anyway, so but but I so I agree. I think there's going to everything's going to kind of go up at the same time. But then I I think the thing that is a little bit different this time is that you actually

have especially if and when clarity or some sort of bill or or even if it's just rule making from the SEC and the CFTC, you never actually had good assets to buy really. You were only choosing in between meme coins. And when you actually have good assets to buy where there's clear value or cool, I don't know. This is again the way that the investment world divides too. You get like these games and then you get like but I just think the pool of capital which actually wants good assets is is bigger. Um I will say um in terms of like the next uh you know, the next category here is what leads this cycle. And this is a very uh kind of traditional typical pattern here of um Bitcoin leads. Like

what you really want to see in a healthy rally is like spot Bitcoin leading. Um and then there's kind of a series of rotations like into ETH and in and maybe so like so is in this bucket too into like the next bucket of risk and then it kind of goes into smaller and smaller buckets where things pump more and more and more and that's the that's the cycle uh for crypto and then everyone tries to get out at the same time. Um I do wonder how much that is I would actually bet that this next bull market is like that, but that you're that's going to be muted um because one that the existing mechanism used to be everyone had these in their Coinbase or Binance brokerages, but that's not what's happening anymore. The main driver of inflows is in ETFs, which you

could move from like an ETF in your Morgan Stanley into like Morpheus, but it's there's more friction and I think it's less easy and easy to imagine um that kind of rotation mechanism happening. But the other thing that's happening too is that there's actual just organic growth, which is kind of independent of each other. Like the the drivers of DeFi are at this point extremely unre- like pretty unrelated entirely to like prediction markets or um you know, I don't know. Pick your sector in in crypto. But and as that becomes more and more like larger and larger parts of the market, um I I think that these

correlations will start to break a little bit. The the other thing the final thing that I'll say is like Bitcoin here like it would not shock me if Bitcoin doesn't break its all-time high for like 3 years. And this is also one of those things like careful what you wish for because Bitcoin is a commodity, right? This is all what we said. It's not a security, it's a commodity. Well, it is. It's a commodity. So, look at how much mature commodities trade, right? Like look at how they trade. They trade in these massive long consolidation periods, big, you know, decade-long cup and handle. I I don't know if we're there yet, but that's certainly the world that we're going to here for Bitcoin. Then it might be a sexier commodity than gold at the moment. So, maybe, you know, the cycles are a little bit shorter, the pumps are

more, but like that's the direction of travel for this asset. So, yeah, I mean I think that the days of Bitcoin creating the wealth effect that feeds the rest of crypto, that cycle is getting less and less that's breaking in real time. So, I have less confidence that it's this cycle, but it's soon. I think it's soon. What do you guys think? I miss the rainbow chart. Uh I think it's undefeated. Yeah, what what I like just pulled up Willy Woo to see where we're at.

But yeah, it's been been been quite a while since I've taken a look at this. I think Mike, your point on like um you know, the fact that you need to sell and you know, build at the same time makes a lot of sense and I'm really excited for this next cycle for like finally the teams that are good at selling to be selling based off of the fundamentals and like yeah, well like show Blockworks' product here. Like that is a great tool, right? That's finally like a mature investor relations, you know, platform that like you could that gives you a lot of leverage to do that. Um And then if those tokens end up getting a bid, it will tokens will like come back in vogue again, right? There's so many projects that just have no interest in launching a token at the

moment because net net it's just harmful for the project. Like it's not worth it and there's no real incentive. If the you know, some really good projects that have not launched a token fast follow like the lead of this bull market, that's when I think things will get really interesting cuz that is like net new capital being injected into the um ecosystem and probably a lot of wealth actually like, you know, from from airdrops or like uh things like that. All the fun stuff will come back. Yeah, I think that this cycle will be very different to the last cycle.

So, I think last cycle we were all thinking that, you know, the Bitcoin rotation would happen uh from the institutions. They'd get money into Bitcoin, make a bit more money, maybe it goes down to ETH, goes to their ETFs, and then maybe some L1s like Solana, and then maybe after that alts and junk. Last cycle we didn't really see alts come back in a in a big way. So, it kind of stopped uh ETH and SOL. And so, you know, maybe like what Mike's saying is like this cycle it kind of stops at Bitcoin itself. And like even if it is Bitcoin in the first place, there's a question of like you know, like what Mike was saying. Is is Bitcoin actually going to come back in a big way? Like I personally think it will come back. I do think that quantum risk is very real

with Bitcoin. Like if you tell anyone on the street like, you know, Bitcoin super cool. I work in crypto. And by the way, quantum might be able to break it soon. They're like, well, why would I invest in that? And I think that risk alone might damage the Bitcoin price this next cycle. And I actually think that's kind of a bullish catalyst for Zcash. And so, my thinking is that this cycle the assets that drive the initial run-up will be very different to previous cycles because I just think technology has changed a lot and and market structure has changed a lot. And so, like I wouldn't be surprised if you see like a Zcash run, then you see that go on to like some new L1 that no one's even heard of like in terms of like amazing technology, some other way of

using blockchain we never thought of. People make money on that. And then it goes into some other like product like what Miles was talking about before like some social apps and like prediction markets in these social apps. And it's kind of a mixture of tokens as well as products that people make money on. And so, it's not just like speculating on tokens. But um yeah, I think all the ETF business like that was kind of a last cycle thing. And now we know that we'll get some inflows from institutions and that's great. But I wonder if the real money will be made in this next cycle from things that come like from places where we just have no idea. Like I don't think it'll be as obvious in the next cycle where the money will come from in the first place.

You know, I think on the um on the Bitcoin point here because everyone's so sensitive to this. Uh although people have gotten way less sensitive over the years. Remember, there was a time when you just couldn't have said this on a podcast and not gotten eviscerated by crypto Twitter. Um And uh yeah, I'm glad that that doesn't exist anymore. I mean, Bitcoin has made it in the sense that it's still really the only institutional asset class like fully institutional asset class. So, it's going to start behaving like institutional assets behave. And it's just it's so big. Like, the original value prop of Bitcoin was you should buy this cuz this thing might 20x in your face. And no one believes that anymore.

And that's good if you are a kind of like a gold you don't really want to buy There's a whole the big pockets of money in the world don't want to buy things that 20x cuz if it 20x's, it could go down 90%. So, you've unlocked that, but you It's just It's just a different thing now. I I just think it's a different thing now. So, if you are Anyway, if you're expecting the same thing, I just think I just don't think that's actually I don't think that's actually yet. Okay, so the Xavier, starting to get into this but um I got two related questions, which is what's actually driving this market this time. So, when we talked about what's going to drive the So, nice people talk about it differently in their own They talk about it differently from their own

quarter. So, like uh some of these new pockets, um you know, there's like a difference in between performing the the best versus creating the most absolute P&L return, right? Or something like that. Or where is there business interest versus the opportunity to buy assets that are going to go up the most. But, you know, when we talk about the market, um you know, I guess that one way to think about this would be who who are the incremental buyers of which types of asset? And uh what's going to impact price the most? Like Xavier, point, this was the cycle of ETFs. Um I will say for Bitcoin, too, this was the cycle of Saylor. Um and it is it's very interesting to think about how Saylor and MicroStrategy is going to continue to impact Bitcoin over time. Um

you know, but we have to think about who are who are the marginal buyers of these things. Um and in a related question, I am a proponent of the idea that retail never came back to crypto. I know people talk about meme coin traders and I'm willing to concede in a sense, you know, there were a lot of people that were trading on pump fun. But look like we operate podcasts, we operate events. Um we've operated them during past bull markets. These things soared during those times. Like, it's been pretty flat. Um and honestly, I just I don't intuit like anecdotally get the sense that retail has come back to the space.

Like, you talk to your buddies, they're not buying crypto. Um and they haven't the last couple cycles. Um Actually, I remember talking about this on a podcast in like 2023 or 24 when the cycle was just starting. I went to a wedding and instead of being like, "Hey, it seems like crypto's coming back. Should I buy?" They were like, "Hey, is this a good time to sell? I'm like way underwater at my my last my last bags." Uh so, I'm Anyway, long-winded way of introducing the subject, but what is driving this market? Is this another ETF institutional RIA, you know, kind of flows-driven market? Is like retail going to come back? What do you guys think?

I have thoughts on this. I can uh I can I mean, I actually think that this is basically going to be the same, but I do think retail's going to come back. I just think that they're going to come back for the things that I I actually just don't think that retail wants to play the the meme coin game anymore. Now, I come at this from an ideological perspective. I hate that game. I think it's a net negative shitty game. Um but, I also just I think the effort like I just think you can look at it um and the the past shiny thing um in previous cycles, like NFTs just never came back. They just fully died. And I kind of think that's what's going to happen to meme coins. I just don't see it. Um But, yeah, I think retail's going to come back, but they're going to

be like individual stock pickers on things that they know and have a brand like Polymarket. Like, if Polymarket prosumer, you know, like like actually like somewhat somewhat smart. I think that makes Like, things your dad would buy. Things your dad would look at and be like, "Yes, I'm going to buy this." That's why it's a good litmus test. >> [laughter] >> Exactly. I would say Well, the best litmus test would be like, "Okay, we've got um probably a trillion over trillion dollars of wealth coming into like liquidity from Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX like XAI.

You know, go sell to those guys. Like, they're going to be, you know, if we can get like actually smart buyers to, you know, want to buy like more exposure to these assets instead of like stocks than SaaS stocks, which frankly like are looking a lot less defendable these days. Like, that's where we'll get like that's the sort of retail, you know, prosumer retail that bid that we actually like would would make this sort of like a massive massive uh like cycle. Um I don't have a great, you know, uh finger on the pulse of where like Asian retail is, but they've played a massive role in previous cycles and feels like, you know, if they don't if they don't come back or then that would be challenging.

Um But, yeah, Xavier, I don't I don't really have like super strong thoughts on this, but Yeah, I kind of think that this cycle will look a bit similar to the 2021 bull market, which might be a bit of a big call, but That'd be fun. I I can see this happening. I I think uh like 2018 was so bearish. Everyone left. And it's the same right now. It's so bearish that you can't even dream. And I think it pays to dream in these kinds of circumstances. I think one thing Mike said, which I agree with, is like you know, meme coins and NFTs, etc., I'm not sure these things will come back, but there will be a new thing that people use, uh especially retail, that

we don't even know about right now, and that just absolutely blows up. I can see the agent thing being that, too. >> think it's the agent thing as well. I was just about to say that. Like, I think a big social macro thing we're not considering enough right now is how we use technology in the next few years. Like, in the next 12 to 18 months, if we get more and more familiar with like using our own agents to do things for us and then kind of using crypto somewhat in some capacity, which I can definitely see happening, like I could see this as some kind of cultural normalization in terms of how we use agents and how people come on board crypto. And there could be some very, very interesting externalities as a result of that, which I think none of us really know about

right now. I just think the setup is very similar in terms of like, you know, social, maybe economically as well. You know, if rates are even cut at all in 2027, for example, at any stage, like all the stuff we're talking about right now in DeFi, etc. I think right now we're in such a bear market, like you can't even dream that DeFi would even come back. Like, Mike, I think you make good points that institutions will use DeFi, which I totally agree with in the next cycle. But, I think retail will come back in big ways looking for high yield. Again, like, you know, like that's just happened in 2021 when rates were cut. I think it will happen again. So, I think like everything we've seen in the past to some extent, I think can and probably will also happen again. And I think I I kind of saw the this cycle,

as in 2025 cycle, as being very, very different to 2021. Because when we started that cycle 2022, like it was clear that crypto was coming back. There wasn't much risk. There was way too much capital in the space. It was clear institutions were coming in. Like, it was kind of obvious. Hence, the returns weren't there. Now, it's like way less obvious. And I think the returns will be there because in 2018, it was so not obvious that a lot of people left. And I think now it'll be the same. So, I I personally think that it will start with retail again. I could be wrong here, but I can't see a world where like institutions pile on into Bitcoin all of a sudden and then everyone gets excited about crypto.

I think for this cycle to work in a big way, it has to be retail-driven and/or agent-driven, like Mike was saying before. Like, retail almost needs to interact with agents or agents need to interact with themselves and get this thing going. And I I think that will happen. So, like, that's what I'm bullish on in this next cycle. I I I agree with that, too. I I I just I honestly, Xavier, I basically agree with everything you think about AI. I just think it's going to take two or three times longer than you do. Um so, I mean, for me, I also just haven't gotten burned to me, man. I'm like Yeah, I've done my taxes the last couple years and been like, "This sucks. I've like lost money on a bunch of crypto." I mean, I'm just kind of sick of doing this. Maybe I'm just getting older here,

too. Got like life expenses coming up, but I just, dude, I'm I'm done with this. I'm done with this. That's why you delegate the responsibility to the agent in the future. Exactly. It's a young man's game or it's an agent's game. Sure, you delegate. I mean, look, I just I just I I think that stuff is Okay, I just think it's far away. Um I I don't By far away, I mean, like two to three years. I I just I think my hypothesis, and you can go back and read like the Jack Bogle stuff on, you know, Vanguard. I just I think what most people want, my hypothesis is I think most people want a very sure 10 to 15% return. That's what I think That's what I think like most people are chasing.

Um that's where I think the biggest amount of money in the world is. It's either that or like 5% guaranteed. So, I I think that the money is going to consolidate around that for the most part. I'll take the other side of that, Mike. I think if you go back to Australia and speak to my mates and say, "Do you want to use crypto and earn 5 10%?" I think they'll say get stuffed. No, no, no. It's not yield. No, no, no, not on yield. No, no, what I mean is uh equity appreciation. Like, Yeah, yeah. It's like if you can buy This is why the, you know, the metas of the world are so popular cuz they just consistently punch like 20% equity returns year over year. And everyone sees that and they're like, "I like that. That That sounds good to me."

That's not retail, man. I think that's like, you know, financial advisors delivering like a great return to their clients. Have you guys Retail leapfrogging, right? Have you guys spent a lot of time on like the Reddit forums of like financial freedom? I actually disagree agree with you. I don't think We are clouded by crypto that retail wants 1000x's. Most retail, like not like your disaffected kind of in cellaring a basement is like what they will say is they do not trust something that does that much. Like Yeah. Most of them even the ones that are taking these punts, if you ask them how much it is, like a couple hundred bucks. I mean, it's not like most of their money would

be in much more conservative places than you might think. And I I I think even retail wants Okay, that makes Okay, fine. Yeah, that makes sense. I see what you're saying now. I think they have I think these blue chip projects have a lot of work to do to get those folks to think about their assets in a very different way than those people you're talking about have thought about crypto historically right? Anything that's a token, I think most people think this is, you know, I'm I'm putting a little bit away and it might turn into something huge or it might go to zero.

Versus like this is, you know, I'm going to choose to buy like a Morpheus over like you know, a mid to large cap like SAS stock, right? Because I think that it's more defendable in the age of AI that it has like a liquidity mode, a regulatory mode, right? Um but for the most part people are coming to crypto for leapfrogging like beyond any financial outcome that they could, you know, possibly get in like what they, you know, the real world, right? This is though the crux This is the crux of the whole conversation. Like literally to me, look, tokens Let's just operate off the assumption tokens are not an asset class. They are a way of They are a They are a wrapper for

different types of asset classes. Period. Like a token's not a new thing. It's not a new thing. It's just a different way of representing existing assets. So And the SEC came out and said this. So we need This is the thing that I mean Okay, you can hear the emotion my I'm getting back up on my soapbox here, but like this is the thing we need to change. Because if crypto is just this oh, I come here to take a thousand X punt First of all, the space isn't interesting. That's not That's a penny stock shitty gambling casino and that sucks. That is like not then we're going to continue to bleed hearts and minds.

We don't want that. The What we have to get people around on is like Morpheus Look at this merch. Told the Morpheus guys I would show this off. Got hooked up at a con. But That is exactly the battle that they need to fight, right? They need to be like hey, we're a more appealing bet than MoneyGram or whatever. You know, like whatever your shitty middling fintech business is or or SAS business which is going to get eaten by AI This should beat that. And that's the story that people have to tell and that I I just I don't actually see a way forward for this industry if we can't rewrite how people think about it.

Anyway, that's my Obviously Obviously strong opinion, but No, no. I mean that's why go take your Blockworks portal data to those like, you know, Reddit forums and get them actually like educated, right? This is just an It's sure it's a token, but it's just an ownership instrument and now you there's actually data that you can look at just like you would look at a stock. And you should be comparing those apples to apples because it's the same rights, etc. etc. Okay. >> All right. Sorry. I've I've soapboxed too hard here. I mean I can tell. I I soapboxed too hard. Okay, so let's talk about which sectors do we think will win here?

Um so by sectors like let's let's let's block Let's like bucket this into the majors. Let's call like Bitcoin, ETH, SOL. Um let's call it like perps, stablecoins prediction markets other like new emerging unknown unknowns, Zev's AI agent, um you know VC funds, that type of stuff. Um Eigen layers Eigen clouds rather is like very into this idea, too. Um but what do you think, you know, if you had to bet on a sector or something like that here who do you think does well? And then who do you think maybe underperforms current expectations? And they have to be tokens?

They have to be tokens. Oh, okay. So I mean that but that's hard, right? It takes out like a good chunk of those those sectors. You know, I I've just fully come around on like hyperliquid. I think actually there's a good chance hyperliquid's going to lead the cycle. And so I I in general think that they rightly deserve a higher multiple than like lending protocols in general like trading, um know, protocols make much more money um even though it is like sure it's cyclical, but so are lending protocols.

Um so I'd be I'd be bullish there. I think the really interesting question is whether pre-PMF infra ever gets a bid again. Um and whether those projects you know, actually for the most part they're not launching tokens as early as they used to anymore, but um you know, I think there's a world here where they actually they they do get a bid when things come back and it looks like activity is actually, you know, there's net new activity coming to like these on-chain systems and they're coming into these, you know, via new infra like that's going to get a speculative bid that, you know, in a best case looks like Celestia $20 in first launch, right? Like that was

that was crazy. But yeah, Zev, I know you have some thoughts on this. Yeah, I think uh it'll be a mixture of things. Um I like, you know, the majors Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, hyperliquid. I think if you just held that basket, it makes sense. You'll return decently well. I also think, you know, Miles might be happy to to hear this that there is actually room for some infra in this next cycle. Us guys were talking that I think cuz infra was so overdone, it's a bit like you know, after the dot-com bubble there was a bunch of apps that popped up and I think people are working on really good apps right now in crypto.

And then there was a kind of final leg of like, you know, some of the infrastructure like serverless functions and stuff like that that that did pretty well. Ultimately as infra projects that weren't around in the initial dot-com kind of bubble. So I think there'll be new kinds of infrastructure that pops up this cycle. I think last cycle was way overdone and we didn't really know what infrastructure we needed. Now we know what infrastructure we need and some applications are growing quite fast. So kind of contrarian now, but I do think that there'll be some massive infra winners actually this cycle. I'm speaking to teams now like on the private side and like some of these teams are very very cracked. And the infrastructure like never before seen.

There's obviously a question of distribution and like but I think as investors now we know what what a network needs and so it's kind of easier to underwrite and you're not going to speculate on like a white paper like we used to which again makes me bullish on infrastructure. The second thing is which I think is actually underrated is like money. I guess like Bitcoin, Zcash like also AI agents Do they like money that's not USD and like what does that look like? I think money can be an actual sort of thing in the next cycle that does quite well like new forms of money you know, like Athena etc. has done in the past which I think like we have under explored recently, but like, you know, sort of unsensible money I think is very cool.

In general like on the non kind of crypto token side, but using crypto tokens, I think just like businesses using stablecoins etc. like stablecoin for payroll, stablecoin for treasury. Like just businesses using stablecoins in general I think you can create great startups like this right now like you've seen with Y Combinator. They're trying to fund startups using stablecoins and the next question after that is like when all these businesses that have stablecoins like how do they use it and like what do they use it for and like how can they use it in more effective ways than just using MetaMask for example? So I think that is a category I'm like pretty bullish on.

In terms of like where you're bullish Mike like DeFi 2.0, real world assets like I I'm actually quite I'm surprisingly bullish on real world assets. I think that that will definitely be a thing this cycle. I spent less time there. I'm actually a bit concerned about the risks of real world assets. I wrote a master's thesis on DeFi risks back in like 2019 and I think real world assets for me right now are like highly highly risky and at like massive chance of blowing up when the cycle comes back. So like I'm bullish on the sector growing, but I'm also potentially sort of concerned about maybe people not adhering to proper risk policies and and mitigations, but outside of that like DeFi I think will come back in some way. Like that's kind of clear that like agents will use these

pools of liquidity etc. to come on chain. So like I think yeah, again like Mike's sponsored by Morpheus today. Like I think these kinds of projects >> [laughter] >> these kinds of projects I think will do pretty well as well. But then I also think like just to finish that things that we don't even know will work well. So like prediction markets actually is another sector which I'm massively bullish on. I I think I underestimated this TAM in the last 6 to 12 months and now it's pretty clear that this next cycle is going to power on like They've done so well in this bear market like probably the best out of any sort of crypto project you can think of right now. And I think that will just continue in this next bull market. So maybe another question could be like if if this

trend continues for prediction markets like and they really go to a trillion TAM and like the next year or two whatever it is like and it really explodes like then what? I think it can start getting interesting then in terms of like what kinds of projects would have like leveraged that growth which we don't know about right now. So and then lastly I'm also quite bullish on social. I think in terms of like cycles and like historically also with dot-com etc. you've seen infra bubble bang pop and then you've seen like social things pop up like what we had with like Facebook and stuff back in the day. So I think social is going to come unclear like what that looks like right now, but I think in the next 12 months we're going to know. Yeah.

I I I like the idea of social as a sleeper. I actually one thing that I have an enormous amount of conviction on is just difficult to get the form factor. It's like man, I really get a lot of the like creator coins have always made a ton of sense to me. And actually maybe AI creator coins like AI X B T's even better cuz the chief objection is what if the what if the creator quits? Like an agent would never quit. So if you enjoy the content, you can have pretty good guarantees it'll just keep going. Um but yeah, I also I mean I I still just my my bet here is um like DeFi is like the big winning category of this cycle. And that's inclusive of you know I don't know. Do you put hyperliquid in there? It's a perp decks. I mean, it's a

non-custodial exchange. It's kind of you know, DeFi-ish. Um Yeah, I I think that the winners are basically my thesis my the overall thesis that I have, which informs a lot of my predictions, are I think that this is just the winners are going to stay winning. Um and I think, you know, when all those when like when Polymarket and Kalshi became clear that prediction market's going to be huge and they were going to take off, everyone funded a bunch of copycats and like, good luck. Um you know, those are kind of the two category winners now, like I just there has to be enough time where you can get like a way longer down the line advantage, like ByteDance / TikTok had

with Facebook. Or I don't know, but I'm not really bearish on anyone that's competing in same with like Borrowland if it's really tough if you're on ETH at least and not in Ethereum and not in Morpheus or Aave. It's like I don't know. I don't know, man. That's a Same with the L1s, for what it's worth, too. So. Yeah, I think like for the infra and like in general, just on that last point, like they're going to it's going to be much more like narrow in terms of like the wedge that they go after and they might even just have a first-party product and then if that's successful, then reveal like, oh yeah, by the way, we wrote this like general-purpose infra layer. And I think that could be like a winning winning formula.

I'd say like maybe Pay, P-A-Y-Y, is the best example of that today. Um they're like a a payments app with privacy built in. So, it's layering it's not just like a privacy project. It's not just a payments app, but they're also like an L2 where I could see that being like a a pretty pretty successful outcome if we're going to shout out one more project apart from Morpheus on this project this pod podcast. Um They're getting a lot getting a lot of love here. Um Yeah. Okay. I've got like I know we're running low on time here, so I want to do just like a couple final questions here. I'm curious what if any effect do you think regulation will have on this cycle?

Um and by that uh you know, there's clarity and genius. Genius has been passed, clarity is up in the air at the current moment. I should should check the prediction market odds for this. But um yeah, I'm I'm just I'm curious what you guys think. Generally, this has been a fade in the past, but I do wonder if this is also the first real legislation that we've got that dictates this and I'm curious if you think it changes anything. Well, I mean, I think it could lead to there being like now much more opportunity to create regulatory moats, right, for these projects that are on the right side of that regulation and the right side of like post-regulation clarity, meaning like tokens are not going to be created equal, right,

between the ones that like are, you know, check all the boxes from a regulatory standpoint and give investors ownership rights and that's actually like codified in some more formal way. I think you know, how the stablecoin yield passing like back or not to users and what's possible and not possible there could play an impact on DeFi, right, because if it's like you want to offer some yield on these stablecoins, but it's very difficult to do that with the reserve collateral alone, then that maybe leads to the like it's okay from a regulatory standpoint to just deposit into a couple lending protocols, right, like Aave or Morpheus.

And that that those are the things that like I remember USDC for a very long time just had such a strong regulatory moat, you know, and grew so fast, right? Um So, that can that can happen. I think that's and this is like the first cycle that will actually be post-regulation clarity. So, should have some impact. I mean, I think it's just bullish for big buys. I think it's going to be it's going to fuel DeFi even further when they can buy assets that actually make sense and there's there's recourse and, you know, standards for what they're buying. And I think, Mike, this plays into your DeFi thesis very well. Like I definitely think this will happen in the next cycle that the assets that are generating revenue and actually good

businesses, they're going to become like even more attractive when regulations become clearer. So, I actually think right now part of the reason we're in a bear market, I mean, there's many different reasons, but I think one of the reasons is that it's still kind of hard for these big allocators and institutions to come in and deploy in size. Like it's just happening now a little bit, but I think in two years' time it's going to be very different and they'll be deploying in size into like assets that actually matter and are great businesses as mentioned. So, yeah, I think uh this cycle, I could again see it like kind of everything. Like I can see the retail coming back in in size and like we don't really expect that right now. And then but there's something to be said like obviously I think it makes sense for institutions to

come in and bid in size and post-regulation, but like what I will say like on the regulation side it's been slower for like enterprise kind of adoption if that makes sense, like corporate adoption of crypto. Like we thought regulations would come, then the world would use crypto. Like that didn't really happen. Maybe we think here as well like regulations will come and then all institutions will bid their coins and like they're going to buy the best assets and we're getting into Morpheus right now. We're going to get in earlier than the institutions. But maybe that doesn't happen. Like I don't know, like I don't think any of us know. These are all just things that we think could happen, but I think it makes sense for institutions to come in in size and I hope that does happen cuz I think that'll be healthy for the space and

like you were saying earlier, Mike, like hopefully this gives retail better assets to to purchase when they see like reports being generated like sell-side from these institutions. That's like why to buy this and not just buying like, you know, pumped-up sell-side reports on like what the next meme coin is like it did last cycle. So, We should also say not financial advice from Morpheus. Love love the team, but not financial advice. Do your own research. I agree with you there. Actually, the more I hear it's that I agree with that take. I think it'll probably just be everything that kind of works at the same time this next cycle. Um I don't know, but I think the the clarity and genius stuff is like you should fade it. I mean, the regulation is always a fade in terms of what's driving price movement 100% of

the time, but I think that people I think it's the type of thing that people fail to price appropriately the long-term effect of. Like genius got signed into effect and then there are a bunch of things that are in motion right now, which are going to drive yeah. Like a whole bunch of changes that there will be big winners from. Like we genius hasn't even been fully implemented until like November of this year. So, there's no way to even issue a genius-compliant stablecoin currently. Same thing with clarity. If this gets passed, I think it would actually have a pretty seismic impact on tokens, but it wouldn't get priced in on day one.

And I do think over time that it would lead to this more you know, um regu- like 20% equity appreciation option. So, I don't know. I think it might not even be this cycle, but I I do think that this will tilt. Genius has been passed, so I think that will the influx of stablecoins again, sorry to just harp on DeFi here, but you know, if there are trillion dollars of new stablecoins, who benefits from that?

Pretty clearly DeFi in my opinion. There's just a massive influx there. So, I think it's probably too early for clarity to impact things really, but um I think by the end of this cycle it'll move maybe one way of saying this is like 20 to 25% more fundamental-driven, makes sense kind of stuff. That would be my high-level. I think that makes sense. How do you guys think maybe in closing here if we could talk about one that's a little bit fluffier culturally. Crypto's been this cypherpunk counterculture. It's been almost this mishmash of a political movement and industry a political movement and an industry both in the same time.

It feels more and more like an industry um to me a little bit. Um and as the industry broadens out and becomes more mainstream, you can definitely still feel the cultural undercurrents of crypto, but for instance, to be completely honest, you could never have gotten on a podcast in 2021 and said I don't think Bitcoin's going to go up. I mean, you would have been eviscerated like not getting in all of this stuff. I mean, I would have been wrong, too, but you know, I I'm just curious um but even like the cultural tastemakers being big YouTubers and uh stuff like that. Do you think that the culture of crypto is going to change from here? Or do you think it will feel like it has for most of its life?

Or maybe just end up like two kind of distinct pockets of of culture, right, where like I think the crypto of the past uh the speculative side just goes into its own kind of like, you know, arena. Um and that will, you know, still be on like Twitter and things like that. And then like the other side like culturally will be like more like the conversations that we had at DAS and looking around the room and just like the vibe of the place. Um I think that is the what the culture looks like in the best-case scenario that you're describing, Mike, with just like you know, people not coming in here only for like 5 10x's and coming in here to buy like high-quality assets. Um there's no way that that doesn't change, but um

the cypherpunk pocket, you know, I think it's gotten smaller and smaller and more like, you know, disillusioned, I think, over the years, which is like totally fair if that was like what originally got you excited about crypto because if everything is running on stablecoins, that's not like the cypherpunk vision whatsoever, right? Um But yeah, so I just I I see those getting smaller and smaller. Yeah, I think uh it'll be both. Um yeah, both communities will matter. Like right now, I think one community is growing more than the other and that's the the dust community and that's fantastic to see especially for our friends at Blockworks in terms

of institutions and people coming to the space and being very interested. But like now it's clear that institutions are very interested in crypto and like they're coming like now and that that that's really happening. That that's where the growth is. I think it'd be nice to see again at some point in time like the interest from outside crypto like from developers for example like what used to happen back in the day like hopefully when the AI craze has died down a bit some of these developers will look at crypto again and see some interesting opportunities. So it'll be both like that they'll be like echo chambers in both crypto Twitter as well as institutional, you know, sort of crowd. So I think in the past we haven't really seen that's why I'm so bullish in this next cycle cuz we haven't seen institutions like build up yet. And

that's going to be very cool to see in this cycle cuz we're going to see, you know, everyday people really curious about what's happening and, you know, crypto doing really cool things we didn't think were possible and then we're also going to see institutions like looking at what's happening and like potentially participating in things where there's there's trust built with them which is like I think probably going to happen. So that's why I think the it's looking good I think for the next few years. Like it's feeling bad now but I think yeah, everyone doing different things and collaborating and also sharing I guess their own alpha and in ways that actually make make sense and push the space forward. I think I'm really looking forward to seeing in the future. Yeah, just one note like I thought it was really funny in past cycles especially like 21 where um

when the institution institutional people like tried to basically like adopt crypto culture you know, they didn't have like like, you know, consulting firms being like GM GM like would love to chat to you about XYZ or just like random people at these big companies having like, you know, board ape PFPs and things like that and it was very much so like we're in our own little world over here, right? You have to get to know the lingo, understand like where we talk, understand what all these like, you know, phrases mean and we have all these quirks, right? And like there was a bridge where like, you know, I was like probably this person at Fidelity back in 2021 that was like got that, you know, culture and could kind

of bridge it back to like these institutions. Whereas this time it might be a little bit different where it's just like, you know, everybody's kind of talking on the same level, right? Like the crypto people they are not like GMing anymore. Um even though that I I do miss that a bit a bunch um and it's just more like peers talking, right? Um that's that's probably the sign of maturity and it's a little bit sad because the culture was really fun and weird and we love that. I I think so. I So I agree I would maybe gently push back on that a little bit and actually say I think crypto is very good at predicting the future. It's just not obvious how it always does it. And crypto's actually had a pretty big cultural impact. I mean Yeah. like the

word huddle that's such a funny silly thing to say. Um but like I will casually just be listening to really mainstream financial commentary every now and again be like that comes from crypto I mean that was a thing that people on CT used to say I remember and now it's like found its way into the mouths of, you know, Jim Cramer and Don't mid curve this. Don't mid curve I mean that type of stuff has had a massive cultural impact and I I kind of think the way that I would think about this is it's going to moderate a little bit but I actually think it will continue to be this dynamic of crypto has its own cultural feel and norms just like every other industry has for a pretty long time if not indefinitely into the future. Um and But but you know what the thing I'm

looking forward to the most is I think there were always many motivations for getting into crypto. Um you know, there were the true ideological believers like frankly there's like the anarchist Bitcoin camp. There's like the cypherpunk utopian camp. Um but there were other reasons that I just thought were under discussed. Like a huge part Some of that was you know, like I'm an ideological believer in crypto. Um but I also like this industry because it was intellectually interesting and fast-paced and the risk reward of being at a ground floor at a new industry is very high. And people just weren't allowed to talk about it was seen as dirty or less than and I think that we're getting to a place where we can just say yeah, I like working here

because it's intellectually interesting and fast-paced and I think it's going to work and, you know, the risk reward is great and in, you know, I want these cultural values to succeed. But kind of felt like people were larping a lot in the beginning, you know, it it's like do you really believe that? Like do you or are you kind of doing the equivalent of IRL wearing your board ape PFP? Um so I feel like it's getting to a place which is more kind of settled and honest. I think it's going to keep a lot of its quirks. But I think it'll change for the better. I I actually like it way better um now than I did in 2018 to be honest.

I agree. All right guys, I think this is any final thoughts about this market or we've already gone for over an hour here so we can we can close up. >> I I like I like Zeb's version of what happens. I hope that happens. >> [laughter] >> I hope that happens including the weirdness piece. Yeah, exactly. Just manifest it. You know, if we just say it enough that's how it happens, right? Just keep building as CZ would say. I think that's the I think that's the winner too. I agree. Um all right guys, we got to run. This was a fun one. We'll see you both next week.

See you lads. See you guys.