The Milk Road investment framework for this crypto cycle

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily crypto show that explains everything as clearly as your super smart nerdy friend who somehow makes quantum physics sound simple I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by Kyle reidhead co-owner and head of research for milroe pro today is a super exciting day guys I've been telling you over the past few episodes about a guide an investment framework that Kyle and the milk Road team put together these guys have been cooking absolutely cooking in the kitchen for months and they put together a framework that is dead simple and gives you everything you need to make money in this cycle in the next 12 months

straight up this thing is absolutely fire I can't believe how good it is there's so many amazing takeaways and it's done in such a simple way also there's some really really great stuff about how to allocate in your portfolio but you're gonna have to stick around to the episode to the end of the episode to hear that now in order for us to tell you guys about this framework that they've come up with that we're going to share with you today I'm going to show a bunch of visuals in today's episode more than we usually do so if you guys want to switch over you might want to switch to YouTube or if you're on podcast you might want to make sure you can see the video if you're driving please don't drive and watch the video at the same time super dangerous be careful out

there folks but before we jump in we just need to take a minute to hear from our sponsors who make the show possible do you own your data nope every post click and search you make is controlled and monetized by unseen Giants I've had enough it's time for navigate where their mission is to give back data ownership to you and share profits with you that's right money in your pocket how you ask first the navigate browser extension makes it easy to turn your everyday browsing into passive income second the data quest game where you can boost your earnings and help train their AI visit navigate. today to earn and own your data meet uphold a trading platform that's changing the way you think about

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friend that can explain quantum physics but I can explain other things like crypto and investing but not quantum physics unfortunately but also just to add to your intro this isn't about just making money for the next 12 months this framework that we're about to share in this episode is about making money in every Market that we're in throughout the entire cycle UPS Downs everything we're going to show you how to allocate and how to understand what's going on in market so it's a big thing we're pumped I'm super pumped okay let's start off with the simple question that is sort of the foundation to this investment guide which is what moves crypto markets what is the lever that leads all crypto markets to move yeah I mean I think we've explained this one time and time

again which is Global liquidity at least right now it's Global liquidity right like it might not always be but Global liquidity is what moves crypto it's what moves Tech it's what moves gold it's what moves most things at the moment more on a long-term time frame but oddly enough with crypto when you look at bitcoin price chart versus global Equity as you have up on the screen here it's pretty accurate like in the moment so like AS Global Equity goes up crypto goes up right it's it's it's pretty wild how close it is but generally over the long term you're going to see it match up uh very very well as well so Global Equity is what moves kind of all markets and it has for a long time I would say in this moment that we're in which we did an episode on this months ago but

since kind of the great financial crisis back in 2008 we've been in this like monetary policy dominated world where Global Equity really really matters previous to that it wasn't as much moving markets because there wasn't as much being printed we weren't so much in debt and now we are and so Global Equity is really what moves everything but what you really want to understand is not just Global liquidity but it's actually there's something that moves global liqu liquidity and that is the business cycle we've talked quite a bit about the business cycle or at least I mention a lot when I'm on the episodes and I'm sure other guests do but we've never really like dove into what the heck the business cycle really is and I think this is probably one of the most important things to understand if you want to invest in not just crypto but

anything because the business cycle has been around for like hundreds of years and it is really the the framework that we base our investments on and when you understand the business cycle you kind of can understand I don't want to say it's not like the most perfect thing in the world but when you understand it it makes investing just so much Clear I'd say okay so it's not the Bitcoin having that moves crypto markets as so many people think so if you think that scratch that from your mind interesting though Bitcoin was created because of the great financial crisis that I just talked about and so it was created like basically the year after that and so the having of course is every four years since when Bitcoin was created so that's actually what happened here right it

kind of lined up the same with this because when the financial crisis happened we had to go into all this monetary policy not too long later and so they happen to line up at the same time but that's that's not what caused it though like I'm sure it helps it's just not the main thing driving it okay so Global liquidity moves crypto markets what moves Global liquidity is the business cycle obviously we're going to explain the business cycle to everybody but before we do that there's just one more key uh foundational point I think that everyone needs to understand here and that is if we are going to invest in these business Cycles if business Cycles are going to be a key to our framework you need to invest in secular Trends those are what fit the business cycle what what are secular Trends can you

explain that concept to us yeah for sure so let me just explain real quick so the business cycle itself is the growth of the the economy okay you can think of the global economy growing and growing right and sometimes it grows really fast and then sometimes it slows down a lot you have a chart up rate now that shows kind of the expansion of the economies and then you have like the the contraction of economies and they go up and they go down they go up and they go down but long term if you look at the black line in the middle of it although there's these crazy ups and downs long term we're always going up and to the right no matter what that is the business cycle working around a secular Trend the secular trend is that just growth in our world is growing our

economies are growing because we have more people we're becoming more efficient with technology etc etc and so for the last I don't know basically since the beginning of time our GDP or the growth in our in our economies has just grown and grown and grown okay and that is a second of a trend that's something that's probably never going to stop Although our population decrease as I talked about an episode months ago that could slow down our our growth but we think we have technology that's going to fix that so anyway a secular Trend in just that our economies get bigger and bigger and bigger right we become we consume more and more and more over time we produce more and more over time and we sell more Goods more and more over time so that is a secular Trend that you can always bet on that we're just even

if there's these ups and downs in terms of how fast we do those things or how much we grow you know that our economies are always going to get better and if they don't well we're going to collapse so we need them to always get bigger and better so a secular trend is basically just a long-term Trend and so first you can understand that the business cycle is always up and to the right though we'll have these crazy ups and downs we'll talk more about that in a second but if we think of other secular Trends let's think about the United States United States has been the most dominant country for the last 100 years and so a secular trend is the growth of the United States economy well how can you invest in that secular Trend the S&P 500 right the S&P 500 is basically just the

top companies in the United States and you could have invested in them anytime for the last I don't know since the S&P 500 has been around which is like close to 100 years and again it will go up and to the right now again it will go up and down in the short term but a secular trend is that the US econom is just getting better and or bigger and bigger and bigger and so the companies that make up that economy will grow in size and they've done this for years right so that's an easy secular Trend to understand the next secular Trend you can understand is the NASDAQ this is technology the internet is the easiest way to understand this right since the 90s we've done nothing but bring more and more people online more and more companies online and more and more of

what we do every day online and so there's a secular Trend in just the internet adoption the best way to represent that in an asset class is the NASDAQ these are the top 100 technology stocks basically all of them are internet stocks right or rely on the internet in some way and so again if you want wanted to invest in the secular trend of the internet you just bought the NASDAQ you could also buy specific companies of course but you just buy the NASDAQ and you can see here up in the chart you have it's just up and up and up over time for the last you know whatever it's been 30 years or so again it has its kind of expansions and contractions along with the business cycle But ultimately it's a secular Trend you could buy any time in the last 30 years and you especially right now

we're at alltime highs and you would be up okay there's one more secular Trend that we'll talk about and that's what's going to matter for listeners today which is crypto this is the onchain revolution which started back in 2009 with Bitcoin and now we have a secular trend of people moving onchain okay and so again same idea it will move with the business cycle it will have its ups and downs but ultimately because this technology is so good more and more people are going to come onchain over time and that is a secular Trend that you can invest in and be a part of so just like you could invest in the S&P 500 if you wanted to take the secular trend of the US economy you could invest in the NASDAQ if you wanted to take the uh secular trend of the internet and then you can invest in

either Bitcoin or just like in crypto in general and look at the crypto total market caps what we have up here and that'll show you the secular trend of crypto Okay so we've got these secular trends that are uh consistent that basically follow this NeverEnding growth they are going to continue to grow and these secular Trends you could see them in those graphs there they follow something and what they follow is the business cycle so let's break down the business cycle so everybody can understand what is a business cycle and the key to understand here is that so assets themselves are not predictable they're very tough right to predict if Bitcoin is going to go up or down or if

the NASDAQ is going to go up or down or if the S&P 500 or specific companies within that are going to go up and down but what is predictable is the business cycle because we've had the business cycle for so so long and there are many many indicators which tell you what's happening with the business cycle and so if you can start to predict the business cycle you can start to predict the ups and the Downs of the NASDAQ the S&P 500 and for crypto for any of these secular Trends so if you understand the business cycle and you get the leading indicators the way that you can start to see where the cycle is heading where we are now and where it's going to go then you can start to make Bitcoin and other assets predictable that's the key thing here that we're going to talk about so let's

dive into what is the business cycle we're going to break it down into Four Seasons or four sections which is going to make it super easy for you guys to understand but like before we get into that let's just let's just understand what this is ultimately and so again the business cycle is the growth in our Global economies okay if you want to think about like the US economy that's fine but ultimately it's the growth in an economy okay here's how the business cycle works there is a combination of business cycle generally understood by looking at inflation and looking at GDP gross domestic product okay so this is like how much is the economy making in revenue and based on that how much are prices going up or down for all the things that are bought and sold in an economy okay and then there's one thing

that sort of helps to control that which is the central banks the FED we talk about the FED in every single episode basically what are interest rates doing Etc the FED moves rates up and down to sort of control inflation or GDP and they also can print money to control inflation or GDP okay so those are the tools we have to impact the business cycle in the world we live in now the business cycle is basically controlled by central banks and that's why it's key to understand both of these things but let's just walk through what a full business cycle would look like and we'll do it in terms of like the real economy in terms of like where are you and what does this how does this impact your life so let's start here in an economy we'll start when there's too much growth okay

so we had too much growth in 2021 right things got too crazy and so when you have too much growth too fast what happens we have an increase in inflation right now why is that well it's because there's too much demand to buy things and so companies either can't keep up with that demand that they start increasing their prices or they realize hey we can start to increase prices because there's so many people in right and so all of a sudden when there's too much demand there's too much money out there everyone's consuming consuming you think 2021 the governments were just giving away free money everybody had a job the stock market was booming that's because everyone had all this money and so everyone was consuming and spending companies were doing great Etc what happens then inflation goes too high now in this space or in this time in 2021

inflation went High because of structural demands because we just shut down economies and we had a war Etc so like it's a little bit different but ultimately inflation got too high okay and so what happens when inflation gets too high well all of a sudden we need to lower the price of goods right or not allow price of goods to go up any higher and so to battle inflation central banks will increase interest rates so what happened in the end of 2021 all of a sudden central banks around the world started to increase interest rates the reason they did this was inflation was getting too high and so if they increase interest rates what happens the average person who has a mortgage a car they have loans they have credit cards Etc if they have any debt all of a sudden all that becomes more expensive right your

mortgage payments every month go up and up and up every time they increase by like .25% right or 0.5% you hear this all the time these raising or lowering of interest rates what they're doing is making it more expensive for everyone in the world your expenses are now going up even though nothing's changed okay just some guy at a central bank decided we're going to increase this because inflation is getting too high and so what happens is once that gets high enough people's expenses get too high and all of a sudden they can't afford things anymore and Company expenses get too high they can't take out loans and they can't you know their their cost of their offices Etc go up and so all of a sudden everyone is like a little bit broke and so what happens in this world well companies got to start laying people off

right they've got to they can't hire any more people and they got to actually like reduce expenses right reduce their payments and so then all of a sudden people lose their jobs people don't have as much extra money because their expenses are too high because their mortgage payments went up and then what happen s well all of a sudden people stop consuming and so when you stop consuming inflation starts to go back down right the prices of things are still going up generally because again we're in a secular Trend right the the growth of the economies are still going up just not as fast and so maybe instead of 9% it's like 3% right so as inflation comes back down because people are losing their jobs and they don't have as much expendable money then what happens well the central bank will start to lower rates again right that's kind of

the world we're in right now we just started having the US lower rates La last month and now we're seeing rates go back down and if you have a home right now or you have a car that you are financing you'll notice you're getting a little bit of extra cash every single month right because your mortgage payments are going down and so as they lower those rates all of a sudden people start spending again and all of a sudden the mortgage markets goes up or sorry the housing market goes up and people start buying going to restaurants again and buying whatever luxury goods etc etc etc and people start to spend once again at the same time what happens is that generally there's a delay or a lag to this and so the government will start or the central banks sorry I think they're kind of one and the same but whatever

they start to print money they need to stimulate the economy because companies have had to lay people off people don't have any money anymore and so they start to give out money to companies and they start to say hey here it's now cheaper to take out loans and so take out a bunch of loans it's going to cost you you know next to nothing or we're going to subsidize certain areas to help them grow and that's going to stimulate the economy once again that's kind of where we're at right now and then the same cycle happens right they do too much rates go too low people start spending a ton again and all a sudden inflation starts to go up and then the same cyclical nature happens once again that is the business cycle and that is how it looks like and feels like as the average

like consumer so there's like a real part to it that you would know and feel on a daily basis if you own a home or a car Etc and then there's how does that actually impact markets and again if you think about it if a bunch of people are spending it means companies are doing well right if rates are low and I can take it loans and my mortgage payments low I can go buy a new iPhone and so all of a sudden Apple's stock goes up because their revenues are better right their earnings are better right and so what's happening in the real world eventually comes too and happens and and correlates to what's happening in in the markets as well okay so the business cycle is cyclical because it is tied to a few key dynamics of growth and inflation and both those growth and

inflation are impacted by the central banks and how central banks react by altering interest rates or by increasing liquidity by printing money even if you took out the central banks this would still happen it just wouldn't happen so like specific but like like if people start spending a t and prices start to go up just the fact that prices went up means people will have to start spending less as is right so like it would technically balance itself out it's just our economy is so much debt that we can't really let it balance itself out because that would just take too long and things would blow up and the government and central banks don't want things to blow up and so they have to like they basically have to keep that pacemaker that I talked about in that other episode where they'll have to control it and make sure that it goes up

and down kind of in a good gradual predictable way where nothing gets too crazy but ultimately it would kind of work itself out but the Central Bank just sort of allows it to be hopefully smoother and more cyclical but the outcome of the central banks being so involved is that this actually becomes quite predictable and a pattern that you can see happening every four years consistently for quite a while now we've been through many of these Cycles well I was just going to say you can simplify it so if you want to bring up the four seasons of the business cycle why don't we just simplify it this way because I know it was a lot what I just explained but it's as simple as this there are four seasons let's call it to the business cycle okay if you're looking at

this chart right now that doted line is your secular Trend okay and it is kind of the average growth let's say of the economy when we're below it it means we're below the average when we're Above It it means we're kind of expansion mode right we're we're we're much higher than we need to be for growth and so if you look at these four seasons here we have winter spring summer fall don't get confused this is not the same as like your your weather Seasons this is just to do with the business cycle it's kind of a madeup thing but I think it really helps for people to understand so spring which I would say is we're just ending right now is a disinflationary boom so this is a time where you have falling inflation and yet Rising growth and so what this means essentially here is that

inflation has has started to become lower and that's happened because central banks usually have interest rates much higher you think of over the last year we've had very high rates and so inflation has come down from I don't know in the US it was like what 9% or something down to like below three but at the same time at the tail end of spring here we've started to see growth pick up so the economy is starting to get better why well we're printing some money rates are getting lower Etc then you get into summer and summer is this in aary boom where growth is really picking up because interest rates are basically at alltime lows right think 2020 or 2020 I guess more 2021 where rates are low the government's printing money because they're trying to really stimulate they want to make sure there's no cracks or anything blowing up in the

economy and so like things are on full force we call this full risk on this is the best time to be investing this is when kind of everything goes up the 2021 days and this is rising growth but also inflation is beginning to rise at this point as well still early days on inflation but it's beginning to really pick up here then we have fall fall is where growth is slowing down but inflation is still Rising okay so we can't really grow anymore we've got to start pulling back uh with the central bank because we're we're printing too much money we got to slow down how much we're printing Etc but inflation is still rising at this point then we go to the point where hey okay we're raising rates a ton right so in Fall we start to raise rates in Winter the final stage

this is where rates are high right and growth is slow inflation is beginning to slow down this is the point where like no one's buying anything people are losing jobs and the economy is is struggling people are scared you hear the recession talk all the time that's winter this is riskof okay this is what we call the deflationary bust but then what happens is the central banks change their tune and they start printing some money they start talking about that they're going to raise rates again right they pause uh increasing rates and they either pause it and keep it there or they say hey we're going to start lowering and that's what gets us back into Spring right and so we're still below average in terms of growth but we're starting to rise that's the best time to be investing that was your

January 2022 or sorry January 2023 if you knew that the business cycle was turning and we were entering spring at this point that was the time where you wanted to allocate we had T mentioned a ton to Pro people like this was the time to be allocating and boom we had an amazing 2023 and then now we're just kind of ending our spring and I think we're moving into summer which is again Rising growth inflation I don't think inflation is going to rise too much but generally you'll see some inflation rise and again this will be more at the tail end of summer so it could be end of next year type thing okay couple quick clarifying questions and then I want to ask how do you use this in order to make better Investments but before I ask that how long is a typical business cycle and

then how long is a typical season and how how easy is it to know where we are within this business cycle so okay Lang so generally it's very random but because we're in a monetary policy dominated world it's actually not random at all they're basically every four years the same with Bitcoin having which is weird but just sort of how it works coincidental totally coincidental coinci completely and it won't always be that way it's just sort of how it is now I think it will continue that way for now but um mainly the reason we won't get into it but it's because the um the debt from from governments they have to refinance every four years three and a half to four years and so they have to lower interest rates to refinance which is where they're going right now and that

happens every four years and so I think that's probably what's controlling the business cycle anyway so generally that in terms of the seasons it can vary as well I would say it's around a year but it could be more I mean we're we've kind of been in spring for a year and a half right and so it can be anywhere from a year to upwards of two years but sometimes season can actually be even shorter right like if you have a long spring maybe we're gonna have a short summer or maybe Summer's the normal and we'll have a short fall like I don't know but it kind of varies so generally around a year I would say I also asked is it is it hard or difficult to know which season we're in I wouldn't say it's an easy thing for sure there's a lot of metrics and I think the finance

world and the economics World probably like over complicates it which can make it very difficult for people but ultimately what you're looking at I mean from our chart that we just showed it's all about inflation and growth so if you look at GDP you look at inflation that's going to help but what you need to understand is the leading indicators of that where I said that the business cycle is predictable it is if you understand the leading indicators of inflation and of growth and that's where things get difficult there's many leading indicators they're hard to track uh and so I wouldn't say it's an easy thing because also the other thing is you want to predict ahead you want to know where is the business cycle going to be six to nine months from now so that you can invest ahead of time you don't want to be like okay where are we

right now and then invest based off where we are now that's the last thing you want to do right the best time to be investing was at the tail end of winter right but at that time it still felt really really bad but if you knew that spring was coming that's when you want to be investing so it's definitely not easy we update uh there chart now in Pro every I think it's on Tuesday maybe it's Thursdays now actually and so every single Thursday we show in the newsletter for pro members where we are in this cycle and we comment on it and we update so if you don't want to try to figure all this out and be an economist you don't have to be uh myself Martin and the rest of the pro team we do that for you and uh and so you can learn that

just by being a pro member every Thursday which is going to make your life so so so much easier because there is a lot of data and things that you kind of got to parse through to figure out where we are here okay so now what now I have this information I know that there's these fouryear business cycles that we have these Seasons Within These Cycles what do I do with that information how does that we're obviously not in Winter as you had said had we known that we were in Winter and we were going into spring we would be saying hey everybody now is a great time to buy but we're not how do I use this information for my Investment Portfolio yeah so I'll give a bit of a general take but I think the best way is there is a a guide that we shared where

we we kind of walk through this in a little bit more detail than what I've explained in the podcast and in that we actually break down the portfolio allocations there a lot to explain in a podcast so I'm not going to do it but it's free anyone can get this guide it's in the show notes below so go download that and we'll show you the actual allocations but basically the gist of it is this there is and you can see from the image here we say risk off in Winter risk on in Spring risk on in summer and then neutral in in fall and really what you want to understand here is that in Spring especially early time in Spring it's risk on but it's not full risk on it's not like mcoin degeneracy Risk on like it was back in 2021 it's risk on of

like Hey we're going to start allocating again to riskier your assets and so this is why Tech will start to do really well in Spring and crypto will start to do really well but mainly it'll be Bitcoin it's usually led by Bitcoin it's not going to be all the alts now salana also did really well but it because it was so undervalued that was just an obvious trade back in Spring and again that was 2023 early early days and so risk on but not crazy risk on we'll call it not dgen risk on in spring in summer that's your chance to go full risk on that's where you can buy whatever you want in crypto and it's probably going to do well this is your altcoin season is what most people call this but also Tech will do really well right so in Spring is when

your apples your Google your Nvidia the biggest companies in the world will do well and they'll come back and tell the market hey you know we're going back to risk on in summer is when the small caps will do well your Russell 3000 the like the tiny startup s that are overvalued or just crazy they make no sense the things that are like these crazy robotic whatever companies that like no one would invest in during winter it takes summer for people to start investing in those things and capital to move its way there part of that because companies have already made money in spring from the kind of least less risky assets and now they move their capital from the less risky to the more risky right and so that's summer that's where we're heading into right now I think we've talked a ton about how we think altcoin

season and crypto summer is coming the banana Zone that's your summer is the Michigan is the Michigan State Pension Fund buying the eth ETF today is that an indication that we're summer that we're entering summer or what well I don't know that the Michigan State Pension Fund is trying to invest around the business cycle I think they just invest for long term but at least that's what I hope but yes I think they're getting ready for the banana Zone AKA uh the summer for the business cycle Fall's where things get a bit tricky so fall is a time where assets can actually do really well and probably it's the most riskiest in terms of like Risk on environment so like there is money to be made the tail end of the most riskiest will do really really

really well this is when altcoin season really outperforms Bitcoin if you remember in 2021 eth and a bunch of these other alts just dominated Bitcoin later in in 2021 Bitcoin barely moved it still did well sure but it was so outperformed but then you need to be preparing for winter because at some point in fall things start to change and that's where you have your top is generally in fall and we start to go down now the problem is is that in summer and fall things are so crazy that things go up and down and up and down and up and down but ultimately up and to the right but it's hard to tell when the top comes the top is coming in fall and so my suggestion is always you start taking profits end of summer early fall and you start preparing and by the end

of fall you are already fully allocated to winter again for the exact percentages and how to do this check out the guide that we have again it's in the link in the show notes below and then in Winter you want to basically be out of asset you might want to hold like some Bitcoin or some like lowrisk crypto or lowrisk Tech but generally you're going to do that knowing you're going to probably go down X percent and in crypto it's quite a bit for many though it's difficult to just move fully out of crypto or fully out of tech for a lot of people that doesn't really make sense um because if you're not fully in this and knowing what's happening dayto day like you're going to miss the remember the these things move so fast right to the upside so once the markets sniff out spring

like they're going to just move and so sometimes it's better like to just hold it long term all the way through these Cycles if that's easier for you but again if you want to be play these Cycles more then you want to be out you want to be in probably stable coins you want to be maybe getting some yield in your stable coins if there's anything there but you want to be Winter's a time where things blow up that's your FTX implosion your 3ac like three hours Capital blowing up like you want to be out of markets because anything can happen at this point and so you want to be just building up your stack holding stable coin Co trying to find some yield and at this point it's generally very easy to get yield because in Winter interest rates are really high right so

it's very easy to get 5% or whatever at least this winter it was easy to get 5% just from holding dollars in US treasuries right and so it's a time to just get yield and just don't get wrecked you can make money in in from your yield and that's about it so you actually expect to lose money probably during winter unless you fully get out the problem is it's it's not easy to predict exactly when we switch or transition from one season to the next so as much as this makes it super easy when you look at it it's it's not a perfect science that's for sure but it is a a guide through which to make informed decisions and what I love that you're saying about the portfolio allocation is and I think this is a mistake uh that a lot of investors

make and everybody listening you know I'm here to make sure you guys don't make this mistake this time around if you've made this mistake in the past is to understand that your portfolio needs to have a plan for each different cycle each different season sorry and so that might mean that during in some Seasons your very heavy majority of your portfolio might move to stable coins and then in other Seasons you might move more into Bitcoin and then in other Seasons you're moving more into altcoins and as you said there is a in the guide you you guys got to download the guide It's just so it's so killer it's incredible it has an exact allocation of what you should do for each season and it's so helpful to see and again

remember these are more these seasons are a year plus right so this isn't how you trade on a weekly basis or a monthly basis when you hear inflation is going to go higher on Twitter you don't sell you look at what season are we in right and you're like okay well when is that inflation going to go higher is it really the thing is that I've been yelling and screaming that inflation is going to go down for the last year and a half I only knew that because of the business cycle it had to go down it made no other sense for it to go up yet everyone has been telling you that inflation is going to go up and so what this does is it really separates all the noise that's out there on Twitter and on the news Etc and it allows you to go

okay does it make sense that inflation would go up right now it's like no of course not that makes no sense because we are in winter or we are in spring right and so the whole point is to use this to just like get rid of all that noise but then you need to hold throughout That season right and sometimes like we were early in putting the milk Road Pro portfolio Into Summer and it's taking a little bit longer than we expected okay and but again we think we're fine we're not making any changes cuz we feel like we know summer's coming and we're going to hold throughout that entire summer right uh and so again it's it's really it is it is a long-term strategy but it allows you to optimize throughout that sort of four or five year long cycle yeah and it's it really allows you

to as you said to to try to predict what's coming next and get get ahead maybe even if you're ahead too early as maybe the milro pro portfolio has been for the past few months we still expect that summer is coming Kyle for everybody listening any final thoughts on how they should be knowing that we are in this we're in Spring end of spring heading into summer final thoughts on how somebody should be thinking about their portfolio right now in that season yeah I mean I'd be buying looks like there's been a dip the last few days here pre-election I'll be buying the hell out of that obviously we'll see what happens I think this is going to be live on Tuesday when the

election actually happens so we'll see what goes on there but I think you want to be risk on I think after this election generally what we've seen every other cycle uh and basically what we're seeing in terms of the the macro metrics in terms of inflation which is lower uh and growth which is continuing to rise or looking pretty good and again it's not month-to month things change and fluctuate month to month it might be down this month versus last month both inflation or growth it's where's the trend and right now we are trending where growth is probably going to go up inflation will continue to stay down or lower for a little bit and then eventually we'll start to see it back up and that'll signal where we're at right now though it's full risk on I think we're entering banana Zone and it's

going to happen anytime this month uh and so I'd be fully allocated at this point pretty much no stable coins I mean love to hear it always have some cash but in terms of your Investment Portfolio okay of course you need to have your rainy day fund that that is a must no matter what season we're in yeah yeah great advice Kai thanks so much for joining us thanks to you and the team for putting this guide together uh as we said this guide is free you can download it by clicking the link in the show notes or we've had a QR code up on screen throughout this YouTube scan that QR code and you can download the guide and make sure you are prepared to allocate for all seasons and also build your own thesis and your own investment framework which is going to help you

sleep more comfortably and make better decisions throughout the cycle that we're in right now Kai thanks so much again for joining us today have a wicked awesome day everybody as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us so you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free 5 minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one resource to help you invest successfully

in crypto one final note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day