Matt Luongo on borrowing against Bitcoin without selling it

Transcript

GM. Good morning. Welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show for people who read charts like other people read horoscopes. I'm your host, Jay Hamilton. It's Wednesday, August the 27th. Now, most Bitcoin investors are sitting on their stack waiting for number to go up. And that's not a bad thing, but there's a big opportunity that a lot of the market is missing, which is using Bitcoin as pristine collateral to generate yield and fund real life purchases without selling your Satoshi's. That's what everybody wants to do. And today's guest is fully committed to helping you do that. We're joined by Matt Lango, founder of Thesis

and the CEO of Mezo. He has also founded multiple I can't even the number of Bitcoin products that this guy has founded. We we'll talk about them all. Fold, TBTC, Keep, the list goes on. He's been building in Bitcoin since 2014. And now his goal is to unlock the $1 trillion of idle Bitcoin wealth that you and many others are holding and sitting and you want to get yield on it. Well we're going to talk all about how you can do that today. Before we jump in, I I'm so so excited about this and you guys haven't been listening. If you've been listening every day, you I'm sorry you've heard me say this before, but the team has been cooking and we just launched the new Milkroad website milkroad.com.

It has a fresh look, new fresh milk. Check it out if you haven't seen it already. I'm so so fired up for it because he's going to make sure that you have everything you need to succeed in the coming bull run. And to celebrate you can get 25% off the Pro All Access and Crypto Pro 25% off until midnight tonight. So don't wait. Go right now. Hit the link in the show notes. Sign up and join Pro to make sure that you succeed and get it's incredible product. Everything you need. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure Markets. Grow your cash like a bank. No lockups, just returns. It's also brought to you by KGEN, the verified distribution protocol, changing the growth game. with that. Matt, milk, welcome to the Milk Road Show.

Thanks for having me, Jay. Pleasure to have you, my man. I love that we're starting off with some laughs. Okay. Um you've been in Bitcoin since 2014. You were around quite early. Uh, what's the biggest change you've seen in the way people want to use their Bitcoin? Yeah, you know, the reason I got into Bitcoin was uh because I got deplatformed uh by PayPal at the time and I'd started a little a new little uh side hustle that did unexpectedly well.

Uh and then PayPal decided that it was great finance and and and shut it down. And so, you know, when I found Bitcoin uh which was like end of 2013 when I first started playing, things were happening with Gauss everything. It was an interesting time. But when I found it, I wasn't really looking for uh crypto anything. We didn't really say that in 2014. I was just looking for a PayPal alternative. And uh and so I ended up relaunching this product with Bitcoin. And you know no one was able to deplatform me. I did $50,000 in the first two days. This is you know, out of my tiny little condo.

And uh and so I kind of had this like lesson of like, oh shoot, that's that's what Bitcoin is. So, a lot of people wanted it to be about payments. Some people wanted to use it to save and and and there's plenty of speculation, but that was kind of the story. And and actually that that product that I launched ended up turning into eventually turning into fold. And the fold people know today, it's about earning because that's what people want to do. They want to earn Bitcoin. But back then, it was actually about spending. It was about spend your Bitcoin at Starbucks and Target and buy Dominoes. That was kind of the whole you know, make your currency useful.

Sounds crazy now to think about finding pizza with Bitcoin right? And it's like now we all like "Oh, I heard somebody did that once and it didn't go well, you know?" So, like I think now we all know no one wants to be the next Bitcoin pizza guy. And so I actually looked back uh the day I was curious about how much Bitcoin had effectively helped people sell it today in today's dollars is about half a billion dollars. So I feel I'm sorry. Yeah.

So you you helped people sell half a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in what 2015? Yeah. This is like 2014 2015. Yeah. And so Yeah. Yeah. So but that's today. It wasn't half a billion then. What was it then? No, no, no. It was much smaller then. It was a teeny startup then. Yeah. But it's just like you know those Right. And so what feels like a small what feels like like something inconsequential yesterday today becomes something big. And I mean that's kind of like Bitcoin's whole thing. And I think what's what's interesting, you know, you look at the market today and people say the crypto market and at the time it wasn't the crypto market. It was Bitcoin and then there were a few, you know, Dogecoin existed barely. But a difference today is like I think

people think that Bitcoin is like the old person's coin. It's like it's like the old reliable and then it's like okay now I want to I want to pump something on Salana and that's where I'm going to and and I think you know what we've really gone from is we've gone from Bitcoin is payments to Bitcoin is speculative investment and now we're starting to get close to I mean do whatever you want on Salana Bitcoin is your retirement account. Bitcoin is your savings. So after you make your money you take it back to BTC. Um but yeah it's a pretty huge shift since 2014.

Yeah. Yeah. No, it's and and what a ride it's been. It's funny. People forget that when Coinbase first launched, it was a Bitcoin exchange. Like people forget that, you know? It's it's we we did an episode with Dan Romero, uh founder of Farcaster and like number 10 at at Coinbase and we were chatting about like the early days of Coinbase and how it was all just Bitcoin price basically and like they just sat there and watched the Bitcoin price and that was that was how the early days went. Obviously, a lot has changed since then. give us your quick uh you know our our listeners are are investors trying to understand what's going on in the markets. Uh I we're going to talk about a lot of different things today, but I I always got to ask our guests, give us your what's your quick market take. You

know, what are you seeing right now from from your seat on the ground? Okay, so we've got this setup where we've had like what are we like triple top or something with BTC now? We've had uh ETH return. We've had all sorts of like things that are rhyming with past cycles. It's it's very tiring to me as a participant all this like digital asset treasury company stuff. We're seeing MNAV start to get really tight, but we also see maybe a liquidity valve opening later this year. So, I guess how I feel is uh pretty bullish. Um that said, past version of myself thought like 124 was my BTC like market top. And so, uh, you

know, if you want to believe pre-bull market, Matt, uh, this is a great time to sell. I I still feel good, though. I I think, uh, I think over the next six months, we've got a lot of growth. Yeah. Yeah. That that very much that aligns with the the general take which scares me. If I'm consensus, maybe I'm wrong. Yeah. Here we go. Yeah. Yeah. I think the the big reason why it's consensus is more it's less on the crypto side, it's on the macro side. That's why it's consensus, right? You cannot deny the inevitable printing that the US is going to do along with every other economy. And rates are coming down. Switzerland just lowered their rates to 0%. Switzerland is 0% rates

right now. 0%. That's crazy. So that's Yeah. Know. Isn't that wild? I wish I was lived in Switzerland and could buy a house there right now cuz that is this is the whole difference. this is like the uh the like crypto swing trader versus the well this is what Bitcoin was designed for you know? So, it's all that that's kind of for me it's like well of course governments are printing money. Obviously, if if you're a trader, the timing matters a lot. But that's that's that's why I got into this space after first it was first it was I'm getting deplatformed, but very quickly it became wait a second when governments print more the money's going to go where.

Yeah. You know, yeah. So, it's it's it's self-fulfilling, but here's where we are and and everyone is waking up to that. One take I heard recently that I really liked on because I I I I hear what you're saying. There is this it's as an investor, it's very natural to start to have, doubt, and, it's, easy., I, think, I, I I I think we're in the 150 to 250 range. Somewhere in there is where we're going to land in the I'd love to see us break 200. That'd be amazing. Yeah, that'd be that'd be epic, right? it would just be such a big milestone.

Um, but but I think that what you're seeing is you are seeing a lot of the world is catching up and learning that fiat is Yeah. And and what what do they do? And it's not just Bitcoin like I'm not saying like not like the whole world is just going by. No, other and other assets obviously are gonna Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. So play. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. You can see that. Okay. Um let's uh let's talk about um we talked a little you talked a little bit of the in the beginning Bitcoin was all about payments and spending right um and then now we're in this period of it's about saving and hodling and

holding right where you think we're going and and I agree with you is we're going to this phase of borrowing that's the next step that we're going into talk to us about this, this this, where, we, are, in, the, life of Bitcoin and where you think we're going. Yeah. So there's I mean there's some there's some of this is Bitcoin specific and some of this is you know if you reframe I I don't usually talk about crypto as a whole because I I think most the most interesting thing uh as an engineer it's hard to hear but the most interesting thing to me remains Bitcoin but when I look at crypto as a whole if you frame DeFi as open finance you're like okay well we're taking things that used to be

esoteric financially and Now we're making them easy for everyone. So you think of things that used to be esoteric. Well, Elon Musk's lifestyle is funded by a loan against his Tesla. And that seems like uh for some people that's like a well why would you do that? And that's a that's a whole big strange discussion. And the answer is well a couple things. One he thinks it's going to go up. Another he doesn't want to take the cap gains head of of selling. uh you know there's a there's a whole slew of reasons um why he would do that but this idea of never selling but borrowing against your assets it's kind of been reserved for the rich and you know I think something that that um that

we're doing in Bitcoin and and that DeFi has kind of prototyped is this opportunity to take this thing that used to just be for the rich borrow against your assets and now it's like well no anyone should be able to borrow against their assets and they should get a good rate and uh and they should be to live their lives. And so I think I think we've hit this point where, you know selling your Bitcoin is I mean, maybe it's a good idea, maybe it's a bad idea for you personally, depending on all sorts of different factors, but for the most part, it's probably something you want to hold on to a long time. That doesn't mean you shouldn't be able to get a house, pay for food, you know, you should still be able to live your life.

And uh and so that's why I think this next um this next move is really toward using Bitcoin as the the world's hardest money and using as collateral. And to give you a bit of a um dog food kind of like story about how I started doing this. Um I I tried actually to finance I I have two children and you know I so so I mean a h a house matters to me, right? And having having a good place to live matters to me. And so I tried way back in 2018 uh to finance our first home with Bitcoin and I said, "Hey, uh can I you know, can I is Bitcoin can Bitcoin be part of my creditworthiness?"

How how' the bank feel about that? Yeah. They didn't love it. But actually it went it went a little differently than I thought. I thought they would just like tell me like no. But actually they're like, "Oh, we have this other lender who you should talk to." And I was like, "Oh." So, I went to talk to the other lender and it was like a little like weird and fertive and uh and I actually went physically into this office and they were like, "Hey, we love Bitcoin, sell it. Come back in 31 days. We will not ask you where the money came from." And I'm like, "Yo, I'm not telling you I'm a criminal. I'm I'm I just want to, you know, it's mine. I've been holding it for years." So, so then I tried it again. I tried it again in 2020. This actually led to the launch of

TBTC is I wanted a a DeFi way to borrow against my Bitcoin. I didn't want to go into someone's dark office or be weird. I didn't quite pull it off because we didn't have liquidity. So, finally last year, I actually took a decentralized loan against my Bitcoin and I used that and I put half the house down against a Bitcoin loan. Uh, and so now it's like okay, well, what's the what's the next step? And the next step is, well interest rates need to be really good. It needs to be really easy. should be something anyone can do and uh and that's what we're working on with Plaza. Why do people invest in real estate?

Because it spits off cash flow. But I'm not here to manage rental properties. That's why I'm looking at Figure Markets. Their new democratized prime product backs your money with real cash flowing assets and returns up to 9% APY. It's the first real world asset for lend pool built for everyone, not just institutions. Ready to lend like a bank and get more than the 5% A is offering you? Download the Figure Markets app today and get 9% on your idol funds. Go to milkroad.com/figure markets. The best audience to distribute your product to your super fans. Duh.

But what if you haven't found them yet? That's where Ken comes in. They help businesses scale digital distribution at a price that makes sense. Ked's verified distribution protocol identifies the best users for your product and connects you directly to them. Ready to find real meaningful users for your next big product? Join the KGEN network today at milkroad.com/kgen spelled KGN. Yeah. Okay. Let's let's use that as a as a jump into Mezzo because uh for those who haven't heard of Mezo, this is I mean it's super cool product and definitely the future of for a lot for a lot of people. It's funny you bring up the house story. I've had that conversation with so many people. It it

when you're in crypto, there's so many people that okay, what's the biggest asset you want to buy? It's a house. You have so much of your wealth in crypto. And the bank's like I'm not I don't matter. They're like, I I don't recognize that. And like, you know, executive orders don't fix it. None of this stuff is just gonna fix it. Um, but it's starting to get interesting, right? Because like now I had with this Fanny May uh Fanny May news recently. I had uh lenders and real estate agents that I know call me be like, "Hey, can you help us unpack that?" And I'm like "Well, can't you ask Fanny May?" And they're like "No no, they have no idea what's going on.

Can you explain?" And I'm like, "Sure." And they're like "How did you finance your house? What does this mean for us?" And I'm having to explain things to them like, you know, well, yeah, what is good collateral? Well, is Bitcoin the only good collateral? Are there other things? And I'm like, you should probably be careful with the other things. It's they're a lot more volatile. So, yeah it's it's been interesting. But, you know, on the one hand, we have Tradfi that's more interested in embracing all our bags, but but also like actually doing things the way that a lot of us in the space have for years. On the other hand, it's like, well, you still shouldn't have to call someone.

You know, you still shouldn't have to fill out paperwork. You still really, if you have uh Bitcoin, you really shouldn't have a credit check. You should just be able to say, "Well, cool. I got a loan against my Bitcoin and and here's how I'm going to pay." And so yeah, that's kind of how I see. I mean eventually, I think the world works that way with every asset we own. I think everything you should be able to very quickly open up a credit line against it. Um, because of blockchain, right? Like blockchain Exactly. is going on chain and you have the assets. So, it's like uh you you should honestly you should be treated like royalty by these lenders because uh in a lot of ways you have something that no one else is going to be able to give them.

Yeah, it's true. Uh give us some stats on Mezo. Uh what's what have the results been so far? It's early. Oh, we just so we just really started um originating loans. Um so we've got what like $4.5 million in loans originated so far. Um people are excited about the rates. So like my big learning from doing this myself is I need fixed rates and DeFi doesn't really do that, right? So DeFi typically everything's going up and down and it takes you a while to realize you're competing with traders.

You're trying to buy a home. Everyone else is trying to get leverage and so they're their rates are swinging and they don't care as long as they get the position they want. But uh if if you're putting money down for like 30 years, you you care a lot. So yeah, so what we've started with is is 1% fixed rates and um and yeah, it's early. I'm actually getting ready my house now. It's 1%. How is it introductory? Yeah. So here's here's the beauty of this. We take Bitcoin and uh and the way that it we we can go into the details of the way that moves if anyone's really interested in that side, but basically you deposit Bitcoin on Mezo and when you take out a loan, it's creating new money. So it's printing MUSD which is a Bitcoin backed stable coin and so that

means we can give fixed rates. We can give this introductory offer which we will be ending soon because that is low. Um that is insane. That's what's it's insane. Yeah. Yeah. So so this is only available in the US just for our listeners. No, no no, this, is, international., No, you you are good to go. Yeah. So you know the system's still early and we're still we're still um still getting things smoothed out but we've got enough liquidity now. I'm getting ready to refinance my home. Um, and it's like a nice upper middle class spot. Like it's a it's a proper house. And uh, and so yeah, we we should be about ready for people to start doing that in mass. And then the next step for us is really to start working with, and this is the weird thing, banks. It's for us to start

working with these lenders and these originators who used to laugh at us and who are now like, uh, okay, I got to catch up. So, we're trying to work with these partners and help them actually um yeah, originate for people who otherwise would maybe be paying an interest rate that's a little crazy on on a traditional mortgage. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Let's um I I want to step back for a second to uh to Bitcoin yield as a category. Can you give us a overview of the current options for Bitcoin yield and how how to think about it? because I know that everybody listening to this is is holding Bitcoin and wants to get yield on it and wants it in a safe way and all the you know all of that. I

don't know that everybody's trying to buy a house at this current moment but if you are check out Mezo so put a link in the show notes if you want yeah if you want to finance your life I think Mezzo's got what you want right now. So what we're working on uh but yeah let me maybe first tell you about the whole market. The first thing you have to understand about Bitcoin yield is that uh in some sense it doesn't exist. So if you're coming from like Ethereum or Salana, you're used to well there's some risk-free rate that this asset gets in yield. Well, that's not the case in Bitcoin. The whole point of Bitcoin is that that's not the case right? So there is yield in Bitcoin, but it it works a little bit differently.

And the yield that's been around way longer than I've been in the space has been lending. So you have people who want to borrow um and either short or they have some other reason that they they they want to borrow Bitcoin and then you have people who are lending who are looking for a return. So that's kind of that's where true yield in Bitcoin comes from. Now we've had projects um more recently that have launched that have tried to offer yield in other ways. So they've said like, okay, well this Bitcoin is going to power a proof ofstake network that's going to and then there's just sort of some like dot dot dot and then at the end it's like profit, right? So if someone can't convince you of where the yield is coming from, I just want to be clear there's a good chance you're the yield

and you need to be really careful because again it is not like Ethereum. It is not like Salana with Bitcoin. Um your yield is going to have some sort of risk., It's, not, going to, be, free., So that's the first thing I want to make sure people understand. After that, um ways to get yield on Bitcoin. Most of them are financial, right? So, you can lend it, you can charge interest, you can put Bitcoin in, uh, in like an AMM pool or in some sort of like actively or passively managed position where it can yield fees. Um, you can do uh there are like saddle strategies and option strategies you can follow that start to get a little bit more esoteric. Um but yeah, so that's the core the core idea and how you let look before you keep going. I don't mean to cut you off. Sure. H how much of

Bitcoin is doing that right now? Not very much. Um so let's see. We have I believe 330,000 BTC that is currently in use across DeFi. So most of it is you know I'd say maybe frankly almost all of it is chasing yield. Like earlier you heard me talking about accessing your equity and buying a home, but you can also use those dollars to leverage. You can use those dollars to do all sorts of other things. So almost every um wrapped Bitcoin that's deployed in DeFi is chasing yield right now.

And what's that? I'm just trying to do the math. What's that in dollars? That's 330,000 times. Let's be charitable and say 120 36 36 billion roughly. Um yeah. Yeah. Around around 30 billion 35 billion. Okay. And what is what is the let's go back to to the original question about Bitcoin yield? Sure. If you're if you're somebody listening to this episode what is what's your recommendation to them? How would you approach Bitcoin? Yeah. So, I think that you are we are very much still in a do your own research phase. So, we're

getting ready ourselves to uh we we've launched an initial yield project called Acre uh that's getting ready to sort of like crank it up. Um Mezzo has its own built-in yield that'll be dropping soon. But I just think the most important thing, guys, if you're if you're interested in yield is just to understand where the yield can come from. And if someone will not get up like this on a screen and tell you where it comes from, you pro it's probably too good to be true. Um other things though I mean there are people who let's see uh Maple's doing some pretty cool things. Um Lein uh is doing some cool things uh with with Bitcoin lending. Lava Lava is interesting. But what's important about all those is you can see on chain how the yield's being made. Uh it's not just sort of a vague promise. So I would say

all of those are interesting. Um and then actually we have a a pretty rich yield opportunity right now. Now I think we have maybe $17 million in TVL on Mezo of people who are helping bootstrap the system and putting in BTC. But it's important to understand that first trunch of yield is happening. Uh it's being subsidized. It's not it's not magic, you know. So um so yeah, I would say we're still in the do your own research stage. It's not uh it's not like you need to read solidity or confirm contract address is bad. It's not that hard, but it's still you should do some research.

Is is that why Bitcoin DeFi has not taken off because part of it? Yeah. What why hasn't Bitcoin DeFi taken off? Everybody loves to talk about BTCI and you know the narrative kind of it's been this wishy-washy narrative that has never really established itself. Yeah. So I think we've got a few pieces here, right? So we've got on the one hand it's just a little hard to use. So um, like I'm used to, uh, having Bitcoin self-custody and like I pull out a hardware wallet here. I have different setups and I can go out and use it, but most of the software that does this stuff in a in a decentralized way has

been built for Ethereum or Salana. It doesn't work with Bitcoin wallets. Um and then I found that actually a lot of holders don't know with Bitcoin what to do especially this this latest crop a lot of them are coming through um micro strategy they're coming through the ETFs right so they really don't have an easy path to get onchain um and then of course it's cultural a whole bunch of Bitcoin if you still have Bitcoin now and you got in a while back it's incredible that you still have it right there have been so many hacks there have been so many issues over the years um and so I think that the people who still hold BTC are are rightfully conservative. Uh they look at Bitcoin as a as a as a as a savings asset and they want to do things that are safe with it.

So I think you've got a few different reasons here and that makes our job um frankly way harder, right? It's much easier to get somebody to splash money from um from one of these other chains or from some other crypto project. It's much more difficult to take someone who's on Coinbase or or Kraken who's never withdrawn their BTC. And you kind of have to hold their hand and explain to them like here's how you do it safely and and here's how you set up your wallet. Um so yeah, I think there's a lot of reasons, but on the flip side the, market, is, much, much much, bigger, right? Um just like I mean like I don't know, we we don't need need to look at the Bitcoin dominance charts all day or anything. It just you can get so many more holders engaged and interested in these

products. It just requires a lot more upfront uh education. So what what's the future going to look like? How Finny used to talk about Bitcoinbacked banks? Is that is that going to play out? I mean let's let's look at the explain that for for those who don't don't know the background and talk to us. Yeah. So look, how funny was um an early Bitcoin developer, quite iconic. Uh there's a running Bitcoin tweet uh that that that uh is a fan favorite. And uh so he was an early Satoshi correspondent, an early developer. Um and he had this idea in 2010 and it's only now coming to fruition. And and the

idea is this idea of of a Bitcoin back to bank. Um but before I talk more about how look at this cycle what's happening right now is Bitcoin stable coins. Now a lot of the reason a lot of people got excited about Bitcoin in the first place was to step away from the state was to step away from fiat is to step away from inflation. But the the thing people want uh to use is a stable coin. So they want to hold Bitcoin but they want to use a stable coin. And so uh obviously um you know you have USDC, you have USDT, you have all these folks who are holding treasuries but it's just a fiat

instrument at the end of the day. Um so Hal Finn's idea of a Bitcoin uh bank is well what if a bank is holding Bitcoin and they're issuing their own currency on top of that. So, uh, hopefully you guys hear this rhymes with what we're doing within the USD. I think that the way to win, the way to create the Bitcoin circular economy that that we wanted, uh, back in 2014, back in 2015, is not by asking people to spend their Bitcoin because that is crazy. You shouldn't spend your Bitcoin, guys. Um, you know, if you trade, you can trade, but like if it's your hodddle stack, you should hold it.

Um, but I think a really great way to move adoption forward is to make it easy for people to borrow stables against their Bitcoin. That's our circular economy, but it's backed by something stronger. It's not just backed by treasuries. It's actually backed by Bitcoin. It's backed by something neutral. So, we're trying to realize this um through MEO, and I expect other people are going to too when they realize that, hey, you can actually have a stable coin that is pegged to the US dollar that's safe, but that can't be seized, but that uh you know, that isn't isn't part of like kind of like the US rails. So, that's what I'm excited about. Um on the one hand, for Bitcoin holders, it looks like cheap loans. Uh but then on the other hand, globally, it

looks like a way for Bitcoin to actually power all these stable coins. With you with you building so many different products focused on Bitcoin you're obviously thinking a lot about adoption of Bitcoin and where we are and where we're going. Talk to us a bit about where we are in the adoption cycle and where where where we're going next. What catalysts you see? What you think is going to be some of the large on-ramps for more people to come in.

Yeah. Let's see where we are. Um I guess it's worth saying that a lot of crypto hurts Bitcoin with adoption. So um it takes right it takes a lot uh for someone to understand what Bitcoin is. It takes a lot more for someone to understand all the details of crypto. And if you show your buddy like Coin Market Cap or Coin Gecko and they're new to it or heck your mom or or you know someone in your family, it's really easy to explain the first one then it starts getting really difficult. Like do this exercise. Just try to tell someone read down the list and it's like oh no that's a scam but yeah but it's top 10 but it's very it's it's hard. complicated, right?

It's like, you know, and so I think this is the first cycle that I've seen where people that I don't know are starting to distinguish between Bitcoin and the rest of the space because like the NFT cycle got us a lot of hate right? And a bunch of people just had USD and then they bought NFT and then they learned about Ethereum, right? And then memecoins just slaughtered retail. And I think that's part of why this cycle is so strange is that um retail showed up and they were like, "Yeah, I'm excited. I'm going to buy." And then just they just got completely wrecked by by Trump and Melania and Argentina and everything else. So, I think that we're finally starting to see people distinguish between the two, which I think is, cool., Um, we're, seeing, a, lot, of the complaints go away. You notice you

don't hear about Bitcoin burning the world down anymore now that everyone's using chat bots. Right. Right. So, we're we're at this really good spot, but I don't think where we've crossed the chasm is making things simple. So, like maybe people have bought it, but they still think of Bitcoin just as an asset that they they have like a a number on in their portfolio somewhere. And I think we want to move to well, yeah, that but also something you can store offline. It's something that you can treat and really like, you know, use as kind of your asset of last resort. Uh, and then it's even harder to get them to actually use it. So, I think I think we're getting closer. I think we're starting to see um the the chaff and the wheat and and the scams and and kind of stuff people can

trust start to get separated in the public's mind. And I'm thrilled by that. Um, but yeah, we still got a long way to go. What do you think are the big, you know we talked earlier in the episode about price and where, you know, I was saying that I think Bitcoin could go to, you know, 150 to two to 250. you you your prediction was 124 which we we've already got there in the cycle so might as well conservative but you don't you don't think we peaked yet. Uh what what are the I think we have another run. Yeah, I'll be happy either way but yeah what are the coming catalysts? What's the what can push I see a few things there's a lot of stuff that I I feel like um okay so anytime someone says the market should do something it's like well it didn't.

So but there there are things I feel like should have pushed us higher already. when I look at um just like kind of how completely the US government and the regulatory regime is embracing Bitcoin right now. And so I feel like there's a lot of slower institutional and tradi timed things that are happening. Um we're going to see retirement accounts that can start holding Bitcoin without you doing some self-directed hack that actually like properly. So it's going to take time. It's going to take time for people's 401ks and IRA providers and everything else to flip on. Hey, here's the buy Bitcoin button. But I think we're going to see more and more. And I think I think honestly the bigger we

get, the less and less this is going to be driven by news. And the more and more it's going to be driven by macro conditions. So um we're going to be super sensitive to rate changes obviously, but we're also going to be sensitive to other asset classes because it's like we're not just challenging gold. Eventually you're challenging real estate. you're challenging things that people really think are their are their kind of like forever holdings. So, um, so yeah, so it'll be way less fun on the Bitcoin side over time because it'll be less and less about this cool new thing happened and you can no longer point to why the price, moved,, but, I, think, it's, going to be more more of a steady grind and a little bit more macro.

Yeah, the the the retirement plan column that you brought up like that is people don't it's it's so much money. There's always a separation between news and flows, right? And so we got the announcement that you can now put Bitcoin crypto in your 401k and which is retirement plans in the US and uh but that doesn't mean that like the, next, day, all, of a, sudden, people, are putting Bitcoin or crypto front run that now guys that's alpha right it's like like that's coming in 2026 is my guess on when that comes uh and 401ks have $9 trillion in them so just just think about that if we get just a we a few percent of that to flow

into crypto. That is a massive catalyst that is coming next year. And I think that's the that's where we get into this like and I don't know if you have thoughts this extended cycle conversation of you know is I'm not a super cycle believer. I believe that we have we will continue to have cycles. We've had cycles in markets well before we had crypto. We were going to continue to have cycles. So, I'm not saying super cycle, but there is a really good case to be made that we that this cycle is the first time we have a a five-year cycle, and it goes into 20 26. And a lot of that is because a lot of the catalysts so far are changes that have not been felt in in the markets and in flows and have not

impacted demand yet. I mean, look, I'm I'm a permable and so like, well, I don't want to say super cycle. It's like, well, you know, we're still going up and to the right like every for everyone listening to the podcast Matt just did an excellent uh chart drawing on the screen. Yeah. Up into the right bar. I mean, next time, you know, we test 100K. Oh no, Bitcoin might be below 100K. And I'm like, man, I I remember when I was worried about a thousand. And that was the thing we're all talking about. Did it touch it and did it go below, you know, and and so I think um if you're patient and if you're actually an investor, not a trader, but you're an investor,

um there is like no better time to buy than today and the next day and the next day and the next day. And and that's really how I feel about Bitcoin. As far as breaking out of the cycle, you know, it makes sense to me that the supply shock quote unquote, right, of havingss in Bitcoin, it should matter less and less over time. Yeah. Right. So, that part makes sense to me. Um, and so I could totally see the fouryear that I've been living by for like over a decade now. I could see that becoming damper. But then it's like okay, well, where where could there be really big supply changes? Well, if some Bitcoin treasury company doesn't have diamond hands you know, so there there are big risks

and there are things that I think could could could break out. But I mean, long term, I feel great. Yeah. So yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 100%. We're going to have some digital asset treasury companies blow. Oh, yeah. We're going to see some Yeah. And we're going to see that is it is inevitable that that is going to happen. And I don't think that's soon. I think that's like we got some time for that. Yeah. I think we got time. But I I don't think, you know, I've heard people compare it to Luna. Um, and and for those of you who aren't familiar, Ter Luna was a one of the one of the the three horsemen of the apocalypse last cycle. Um, and and it was a it was effectively a complex not that complex but it was like a levered Ponzi scheme

right? And then we saw when it went down, what was important about it is when it went down, it went faster and faster and faster, right? And then when you look at Bitcoin treasury companies I've heard people try to compare them and I don't see it. Um I mean, so this idea if you're into these treasury companies of like getting a multiplier on your holdings, I completely see why that would go to zero. Um and I could also see some of these if the if the market tanks and we have like a 20 or 30% day some being like actually we're not a Bitcoin company anymore and they sell. I can imagine that. But uh I don't see like the systemic risk that that Luna brought. Like I don't I don't quite understand that. So I either I'm super left curve or you know what I've

actually found is a lot of crypto influencers don't hold that much Bitcoin. You know um I get it. Uh it's nice to chase shiny things. You should rotate back into into uh pop Bitcoin once you've made your winnings. So yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I keep it simple. Like just Yeah. Like unless you want to be in this every day and you want to make this your job and you want the stress of of the insane volatility that comes with trading just you know, I I don't somewhere between like up to 80% of your portfolio should be Bitcoin, right? Like I would say you're in the range of 50 to 80%. Now don't get me wrong. I'm the first to say that I do think in this cycle from here

I think Ethereum outperforms and I think Salana outperforms. Like I do think we are going to see altcoins. Listen, ETH was a cursed asset. It needs its day. It needs its day, right? Like that's going to happen. But I can't deny that like the biggest if if you're if you're going to hold ETH, you better have an exit strategy because I I can tell you ETH's going to dip a lot lower in the next bare market than Bitcoin is. That's for sure. I can guarantee that. So you know, the way the way I like to explain it to people is like, you know because usually they're like, "Hey, I'm really interested in this stuff." And you tell them to buy Bitcoin and then they wind up and they like get like XRP build or they get like, you know, they go some path they're like, "Ah, how did

you get there?" Right? And so, what I try to tell people is like, look, um any of these things could make you money. Um, there's only one of them where if you go into a coma for 10 years and you wake up, you're not you're you're sure that it will not just be there, but it'll be worth a lot more. And I think that that's just a very different kind of asset. So, you know if you just want to like get the quickest win possible with like a 90% chance of failure, you you sort of play the game. Um, be okay. Don't cry in the casino etc., you know, but if you're looking for like I want to pass on something to my children it's Bitcoin.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Completely agree. Matt, absolute pleasure to get you on the show today. Thanks so much for so much for having me, Jay. Thanks for listening in everybody. I got to remind you as always, none of today's episodes financial advice. I'm not your financial advisor. Matt is not your financial adviser. If you are going to invest any of your money, you should do so carefully and with your own research because investing is risky and it is difficult as we talked about today's show. And right now before midnight, if you're still listening to this, go to milkroad.com and hook yourself up with 25% off Milkro Pro all access. Crypto Pro, Macro Pro, DJ Pro. They're all on sale today till midnight. Go check it out. Thanks for tuning in everybody.

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