Market selloff continues, Ethereum's Q1 and more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #363 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone and welcome to another episode of the delegate refuel where we cap the latest news in the ethereum ecosystem i'm your host standard is asana and today's the 12th of may 2022 all right everyone let's get into it so i think today what i wanted to do instead of just kind of talking about the craziness again of all the terrorist stuff what i wanted to do was show you guys a few charts out there since we've had a meltdown over the last i guess 24 hours across the crypto markets i mean eath went back to 1700 which was funny enough like almost a year ago to the day it's bottom back in in may 2021 so it's kind of like funny how that worked out there but i wanted to start with the lunar chart this is the craziest chart i've ever seen in crypto it's it's insane look at

it look i mean for those of you listening to the podcast you won't be able to to see it maybe you want to go watch the video for for this section but i mean you can imagine what this chart is like if i bring out the measurement tool here and i go from like where it was i guess on the 6th of may it was 87 to today it is down effectively 100 i mean like 99.97 right and from all-time high it's down 99.99 absolutely crazy and the craziest thing is that obviously luna wasn't a small market cap token at one stage it's fully diluted value was something like 100 billion dollars right um which is just really really insane um and the ust and not even to mention

like the ust kind of like stable coin as well so as i mentioned yesterday and the day before there's been a massive destruction of wealth due to this there are a lot of people that blew themselves up funds that blew themselves up and it's just been absolutely crazy but it's not just being luna right there's been a bunch of other tokens that have gotten absolutely destroyed because really as i've been saying for a long time now they're not backed by fundamentals they were going up due to just kind of like the the um the fever of the bull market so to speak right and i've been going on for a while about how i believe most things will underperform eighth and not just by a little bit that will severely underperform eighth now of course ethan's gone down as well um at 1700 i think it was down like 60 something

percent from its all-time high so ethan's not gotten away unscathed at all but it's fairing much much better than everything pretty much everything else and i also think that it's going to have obviously a much better recovery because of the fact that there are tons of fundamentals behind ethereum and and eth as an asset as well so what i wanted to do just quickly was to run through a few charts with you guys to kind of illustrate my point here so this is the lunar usd chart but if i type in luna eth right and you can see kind of like the craziness here like on binance um you know it's hilarious like i can't even like um you can't even see it kind of like the gains that luna eat made but it it actually made like a fair bit of gains against eth during its kind of like

mania like if we take it from here right which is i guess february 2 to its peak in march it kind of like doubled and this is you know this isn't going back that far if we if we can go back further maybe on kucoin yeah aku coin sorry we can go back a bit further um it did kind of like you know outperform either by about 4 4x i guess since kind of like august of last year or something like that right um and obviously like this is the most extreme example but uh it's it's basically dead against 8th now right let's look at some of the other ones and i'm going to be focusing on like a lot of the popular l1 because that was a very popular trade especially late last year look let's look at solana here right solana against eth and this is just kind

of like the daily chart it performed quite well like it performed really well actually if you were able to kind of like uh buy it from the bottom here or kind of like if you were like the perfect kind of like trader you had a crystal ball and you bought celina back in january of 2021 and you kind of like sold it uh in september of 2021 you outperformed eighth by about 24x right but most people didn't do this like at all and most people don't hold until kind of like um sorry most people don't hold until kind of like goes up this much and stuff like that so i'm not going to take it from there what i what i like doing is just kind of looking at it from all-time high to what it is now and that's because most people actually enter like the

retail noobs and kind of like the people who aren't really paying attention mostly enter around kind of like the mania phase and the manual phase you can kind of see in august of 2021 is kind of like where it really really took off right and kind of like ended in in kind of like september of 2021 against eighth but if we take it from the all-time high here and we kind of like go to where it is today solana which is considered one of the more i guess like quote unquote robust l1 ecosystems because it has more money behind it is down sixty percent against eighth right uh from here so this is september two to uh may this year right so it took a while but like it's basically been down only since then with a few kind of like uh bumps here and there next up we have one of

the other popular l1 which is avax oh avalanche right also down since kind of like november against eighth i think it's down 55 or something like that also had obviously a big run there and it's still up from its kind of like all-time low um but you know this is just kind of like the recent price action uh a few others i mean i mean that you got ftm phantom which is actually which was quite popular as well that is is pretty much completely wrecked against eighth like from all time high it's down like 86 percent against eighth so these are just the recent ones now i want to show you guys the old cycle ones against eight like the 2017 2018 era hype coins let's look at eos eos against 8th on bitfinex is probably going gonna be the best chart

here and i'm gonna have to go switch to the weekly for this it is pretty much completely down only and like just like completely wrecked like even against it's kind of like all-time low i mean it's setting new all-time lows all the time against eighth from all-time high against eighth to today it is down 98 percent now for those of you who were around in 2017 18 eos was the most hyped thing in the industry at the time it was you know called the ethereum killer and there were major backers behind it you know everyone was kind of like getting on board with it and it's down 98 against 8th now right neo neo uh neo was another kind of like very popular um other l1 during kind of like that period as well from its

all-time high to today it is down about 96 percent even more than that if i go here 90 yeah 96 percent right neo.eth um iota another very popular one back then as well if we go here and kind of like look at as far back as i can go it is down 95 percent against eighth right now i'm not going to keep going through this but you get my point like it is extremely hard to outperform eighth over the long term you can do it over the short term but you have to consider the fact that even doing it over the short term is very hard because you have to pick kind of like the right time to buy it and the right time to sell it to kind of like exercise those profits or realize those profits there so i just kind of like

wanted to run through a few of those things to illustrate to you guys like what i've been going on about for a while now obviously not investment advice i'm not telling you that you should only buy eighth and and that's it right you can go and buy other things like but as but what i've been saying for a while is that you need to have kind of like your djing stack and kind of like your accumulation stack so you shouldn't just be putting all of your money into the djinn stack right and it's kind of like throwing it all into something embedding the house on something i mean you can do that if you want but in my experience most of most people the vast majority of people blow themselves up doing that so it's kind of like not a really you know strong strategy right so you can have

your djing stack you have your your kind of like long term east accumulation stack and then you can have like a day trading stack if you want right you can kind of like tear that out and maybe you have like 10 20 percent in a degen stack depending on how dj and you want to be um and depending on your wealth level as well like i feel like people that have uh you know a lot more money than kind of say say you've got like seven figures already right you're i mean unless you're like a peak dj most people that already have seven figures are not going to be yellowing that into the most degen out there right they're probably going to take a small part of that stack and do it if they want to or they're probably just going to throw it into or even btc and just be

like you know this is kind of like what i'm going to do this is my easy investing stack and i'm just going to leave it at that right so to speak so i feel like taking all that into account um this is just like me illustrating to you guys why it's so hard to outperform ethan and like i didn't just focus on things that were small like iota eos and neo were the biggest l ones at the time back then they had huge shill armies behind them they were really really hyped up but you know those in the no no they were kind of like built on shaky foundations and they didn't survive the bear market of 2018 2019 they were completely flushed out and then obviously we got this new crop over the last couple years that have come but they're beginning their flushes right

now as i just showed you those charts guys like this like i'll go back to the salina one this is the weekly here this isn't over i don't think that's over at all right i don't think it's over for the other ones that i showed avax i think phantom is pretty much dead like i don't think it's coming back at all i mean it's it's completely wrecked like it's it's it's really bad right um there's a few others out there like nia for example as well um you know that's kind of like not really done anything right against against ethio and this is kind of like 2020 and you can even go back into further things like i actually think the cosmos cosmos ecosystem is isn't um you know bad or it's quite interesting and things like that um obviously terra was part of that but not

anymore i guess uh but you can see here like i mean this is really this is really crazy i mean can i go i think i can go back further than this this is um i think that was uh if i go to kraken maybe i can go back even further but you can kind of like see uh i guess like all the way back here from from its all-time high in december of 2019 even adam against 8th is down like 87 percent and they're still around they're still building they've still got you know some usage there but still right um so kind of like and i mean even if you kind of like look at at btc against eth like i mean ethan's been going up against btc uh for kind of like uh for most of its life basically except like the brutal

bear market where it kind of like went down you can see here it's actually still on the uptrend which is pretty cool as well so yeah anyway i'm going to stop with the charts for now just something that i wanted to illustrate for you guys i thought it was a fun little exercise to do i'm sure some of you guys have lost money on these things or lost eat on these things look take it as a learning experience i lost ethon things too in my early days guys like a lot like if i had to count the amount of ether i've lost it'd probably hurt right at this point in time but i learned from those mistakes i made ethan other things and i've just kind of like been adding to my long-term eat stack as time goes on and some of you will know i said and i said it on twitter

before i bought uh that ether that i was saving the fiat to buy since january of this year so i kind of like i i like before then i was doing my daily eighth buys uh before january then i kind of like stopped my daily buys i was still buying here and there whenever i could but i was stacking a bunch of fear because i'm like you know what if there is a chance eth goes under 2k and we retest that 1700 bottom again i want to be able to buy that with a healthy chunk of fear and i did that today which is pretty cool like i don't know if 1700 is going to be the bottom i don't know if we're going to go lower than that but i felt pretty comfortable you know putting a putting that kind of like fiat in

there and buying it was uh it was kind of hard to kind of i guess like hold that position and hold that fiat while i um watched eighth go back to 3600 during that time but uh just given everything that was going on it was very hard for me to turn like short to medium term bullish because of the fact that uh we had all this macro uncertainty and then obviously all the stuff that happened over the last few days has kind of like kicked in and just made it even worse but anyway i'm gonna leave that at that with the prices for now there's a bunch of other things kind of like to get through uh today uh i did want to kind of like just say that the craziness of the last 24 24 72 72 hours i guess three or four days um

has made me feel like i've aged 10 years and three days i've been non-stop at my screen basically just following all of this um i i i slept properly i think that's the only other thing i did rather than kind of like watch this i think i and i went grocery shopping as well but i was on my phone the whole time but um yeah it's just been a crazy last three days guys the the craziest experience i've had in crypto to be honest i know i said that march 2020 was crazier i think it was um still but the thing is is that it didn't it didn't feel like it lasted this long it felt like it lasted like that that one big crash and it had come after like a really long period of time of kind of like the price is not doing

anything so i don't think i felt like what i do now but it would i mean nothing went to zero right like a big like uh luna's i was about to say big connect luna's going to zero like all like i mean it's pretty much at zero now like whether it go like it's at two cents right now whether it goes to to zero or not is is kind of like pointless at this this point because everyone who's ever invested in luna is down right now like and most people are down massively so it doesn't even matter at this point but yeah it feels like i've aged 10 years in in three days to be honest um and i guess like finally on on the terrace stuff here it actually came out today that doe kwon was one of the pseudonymous co-founders behind the the

uh one of the other failed algo stable coins called basis cash so he he'd done this in the past like oh god i said these two guys like i don't know yesterday or the day before in the refuel this guy belongs in prison and honestly i truly believe that he's either going to end up in prison or he's going to end up in lawsuit hell he's in my eyes his life is over there is no way he recovers from this because he not only burnt you know a few people he burnt like a lot of people he lost people the you know tens of billions of dollars entities funds people from everywhere like normies regulators are going to be gunning for him like guys like he's i i honestly believe his life is over i mean the fact that he put out a tweet trade

yesterday saying that they're gonna kind of like just let luna go to zero and then start again like that's not happening like i i mean it's not happening with do quan at the helm right or terraform live maybe at the helm i think if the terror community was to get together and try to spin something new up again maybe they could do that but i i truly believe dough is finished like this is it i don't think i don't know how you come back from this at all right um so like maybe i'm wrong there but like that's at least what i believe especially because he's done this in the past as well so just crazy i mean the craziness just keeps going at this point it's just insane to me but uh this is what keeps crypto entertaining like seriously the last three days in crypto

have probably been my most fun that i've ever had in this industry just i'm still in disbelief guys like i'm actually in disbelief that everything played out like uh the bears said it would about kind of like um luna collapsing but i think it played out much faster than they thought it would and i think that not like no one can even just kind of like come to terms with the fact that something that was worth 100 billion dollars just a month ago is now worth basically zero like come on guys it's crazy right and honestly it wasn't like an outright ponzi uh kind of like scam like people actually believed in this thing thought it was a legitimate kind of like product i'm sure even though kwan thought it was a legitimate thing and that you know it was working this is all well and good

and i don't think he even saw this coming right i mean he definitely didn't see this coming uh obviously his ego didn't allow him to to see this but uh yeah just uh that's the maybe i don't think this is the end of the terror saga here but i think that uh you know over the next few days things are probably gonna quieten down a bit i mean the the kind of like most i guess dj and stuff or i shouldn't say dj and stuff but the most kind of like i guess some crazy parts are probably behind us but uh yeah just more crazy news that came out today which which i thought was pretty funny all right so there were some people asking in the discord channel for me to cover this uh today so due to the ust uh depending event a bunch of people took

advantage of this to spread fear about other stable coins and we saw usdt which is obviously tether which is obviously the most popular stable coin d peg to the downside quite a bit i think on some exchanges it got to 90 cents now i want to explain something to you guys i know that there's a lot of drama around usdt and tether and that people can't uh can't kind of like uh uh you know sorry that that tethers not backed one to one by dollars and people aren't able to withdraw blah blah but people are able to withdraw people are able to redeem usdt for real dollars and it and because of that and and it's not an algorithmic stable coin it's not going to do what ust does but that didn't stop people from taking advantage of this and

spreading fear and people lost a lot of money on this d-pad because it's already back to a dollar i think or close to it right and there are some other stable coins that kind of like got out of whack to the upside as well such as usdc which is even stupider because usdc is a hundred percent like there's no kind of like um there's no doubt to be had here that's 100 backed by uh kind of like real money in in a in a bank account um and die i mean you can see dice backing on chain just the reason it you know kind of like pegged up was also silly just a bunch of silliness going on guys like and this isn't the first time usdt has de-pegged either it's done this in the past but as i said it is fundamentally different to

something like ust it is not an algorithmic stable coin it is a centralized stable coin backed by dollars and people are able to redeem it now i'm not going to go into the theories about it not actually being backed and how shady it is and stuff like that um just you know the same is true for the same holds true for stuff like ustc where you can actually back it right they're not algorithmic stable coins they're not going to suffer the same fate as ust at worst case scenario if something like tether was to kind of like implode or explode or kind of like dpeg really harshly there are enough centralized exchanges with skin in the game with with tether to just backstop it right and they and they would right and the thing is as i said like i believe ustt or at least tether has most of the money

maybe not all of it it like available immediately to redeem these sorts of things but that's still much better than basically what happened to ust which is essentially pretty much zero i mean like the whole ecosystem is pretty much zero at this point right so yeah i just wanted to kind of like cover that and and there's no reason to kind of like panic there but you know as with everything holding anything in crypto comes with risk like even stable coins so you just kind of like you need to be aware of that i need to be aware of what you're getting yourself into as you know as i always say all right so final thing about the mark it's i put out this tweet today where i said uh ponzi's collapsing funds blowing up a retail getting wrecked quality assets getting giga oversold people

reaching the acceptance stage of grief grief and og's welcoming the pain this is how bottoms are formed surviving this should now be your only objective don't blow yourself up i personally feel like it's like the end of 2018 right now in terms of sentiment news price action all that sort of stuff and that's what prompted this tweet the the thing is is that crypto has a way of humbling everyone and blowing up a lot of people before it can actually form a bottom and that's exactly what's been happening over the last few days is this actually going to be the bottom are we going to trend lower i can't say for sure but it certainly feels like it to an extent right i mean btc went to 25k like that was crazy i thought i didn't think it

would go that low but like on that kind of like um dump there but it did um and and kind of like when you're looking at this as well i think it's dangerous to assume that just because a bottom gets formed everything's just going to trend up again no guys like i mean eth formed that 80 bottom in december of 2018 and it didn't really start being in a proper bull market again until like mid 2020 when it crossed over i think 360 dollars which was 2019 high um so you know we could bottom now and then we we probably you know can just range here for a while right like it could go on for a year i could go go on for two years i've got no idea to be honest guys like i've got absolutely no idea

how long it's going to take um but i do want to kind of like warn you against thinking that just because the market looks like it's formed a bottom that everything's going to go up only again and we're going to go straight back into an uh you know an amazing crypto bull cycle within six months that's that's just not going to happen in my eyes um maybe eth kind of like does have a run and does have positive price appreciation due to like murder type and stuff like that um as i've mentioned like plenty of times uh in in kind of like the short term but uh we'll have to see we'll have to see how that kind of like plays out but yeah as i said kind of like in my tweet here i think that i'm seeing all the the signs that i

usually see i feel like it's the end of 2018 but it could you know go it could go further down from where it is today i don't know the macro environment is very different actually that's what's one thing i should touch on the context around where we are today versus 2018 i think there's there's kind of like positive and negatives negatives is that the macro environment is vastly different 2018 it is very very bad um it is hopefully improving over the next few months but it's it's been very bad over the last few months right and also as i mentioned before in 2018 people were questioning ethereum's very existence whether it would actually ever come back that's why 8th went down 94 you know what's the use case for ether now that icos are done what's use case

of ethereum blah blah blah no one's saying that anymore right no one's questioning that everyone's actually flocking back to ethereum now because they're like what's the use case of these other alt-l ones like they're all like shitty or blowing up or useless and we have l2s here now and and we have like um the l2s improving all the time so i yeah there's no one questioning ethereum's existence now there's no one questioning its value accrual besides bitcoin maximalist but no one cares what they think anymore so i think taking the context and kind of like realizing that things today are vastly different to what they were in 2018 is is good but at the same time that's on the fundamental side of things i think when you look at it from like a market's perspective i definitely get a similar feeling to what i had at the end of 2018 there so just

something to keep in mind uh on that one all right so there was a bit of talk about the st eth token losing its peg to eth on curve today uh where it's at 0.988 instead of instead of kind of like one to one here and hasn't put together a great thread explaining why this is um you can go read this thread but the tldr is that this is just basically speculators kind of like uh you know kind of speculating on these things and the thing is is that if you were to buy 0.98 uh sorry if you were to buy st today you'd be getting a two percent discount to eat when withdrawals come to fruition uh early next year because you can always claim one eighth for one s teeth right like once withdrawals are enabled

because stf just represents staked eath so essentially if you were willing to wait a year and say st went to 0.9 right instead of 0.98 you would make a near risk-free 10 percent return um on this kind of like trade if you were to buy st instead of eighth um and the thing is is that like it could go back to peg on market as well so you could buy it at 0.9 and then it could go back to one on the market and you could just you can kind of like do that but even if it didn't at time of withdrawal you would be able to uh claim that eighth from the beacon chain directly so um good to keep in mind when looking at this sort of things like this i think th this is this kind of like d-pegging is not a danger for the

stakers it is a danger for people that are leveraged up and and kind of like using these leveraged staking products because it means that they can can get liquidated because their ltv kind of like goat goes down so if you are using one of these leveraged eth products that uses uses as teeth in the background make sure that you know what you're getting yourself into um as i said like these i've i've talked about these products before like 8th maxi and ica from index cop um but i've said to you guys like you need to understand that these products are leveraged products they they can get liquidated and and kind of like you need to understand all the risks around that but anyway i'll link carson's tweet thread in the youtube description you can go check it out for yourself all right so bartek from l2 beat has

another great thread today this time about bridge censorship resistance so he go he starts to tweet by saying is your bridge censorship resistant most crosstrain bridges operate in a lock mint mode you lock an asset on a source change and mint a wrapped or synthetic asset on the destination chain then he goes on to say good bridges should never mint a synthetic without you locking your asset first and should never allow you to lock an asset without minting the synthetic and then he goes on kind of like explaining all this and how this all works here highly recommend giving this thread a read um obviously obviously um bridges have been a big topic of discussion for a while now and i've spoken about it a bunch on the refuel and the risks associated with it but i think that kind of like you need to to be aware of the fact that there

can be censorship on these sorts on these chains and they can be kind of like um i guess uh only sorry on these bridges and there can be a bit of uh a bit of a for lack of a better word on these kind of like bridges that i can put your funds at risk so you always need to know what you're getting yourself into and i think biotech does a great job of explaining that in this uh in this thread here all right so a new uh dune analytics dashboard that i came across uh recently from the analytics account itself called the state of ethereum quarterly so this dashboard basically recaps uh kind of like each quarter in ethereum uh and you can kind of like see the recap of q1 so it shows things like revenues for ethereum uh the eth burns kind of like

the eighth price daily active addresses for the quarter all those sorts of stuff there's a lot to go through here guys i'm not going to go through it now but i'm going to link this in the youtube description for you guys to check out but this is the stuff that um i focus on this is the fundamentals at the end of the day like this is ethereum's actual fundamentals or at least some of them i mean it's funny because whenever people talk about fundamentals they kind of like always go or bias the on-chain fundamentals but there are so much more than that i mean there's the on-chain stuff which you can see here on the student analytics dashboard but there's also a lot of the off-chain stuff right like developers coming into ethereum ethereum's kind of like a kind of like adoption and it's kind of like

um narratives outside of crypto and it's it status within kind of like uh the wider i guess like wider society so there's a lot of different metrics to kind of track here but this dune dashboard gives you a really really great way to track all the on-chain metrics so definitely go check this out i'll link it in the youtube description so summer esat has published a bunch uh sorry his first guide in the series of his migration guides of migrating from prism to nimbus so you can kind of like give this a read if you are running prism right now and you're looking to migrate across that for to kind of like i guess like improve client diversity this guide is for you it is a quite a long and kind of like detailed guide and it'll show you how to go from prism to nimbus step by step all

the commands that you need to know uh and everything like that and summer esad has been doing these guys for quite a while now and they're actually really really good so you definitely should check this out and give this a read if uh this is kind of like you and uh he'll be doing other guys as well going from like prism to lighthouse prism to tekku and prism to like pretty much everything else but this one focuses on nimbus which i thought was pretty cool because i think nimbus is the um the smallest client right now maybe uh on on kind of like the consensus layer front so it's good to see uh kind of like summer doing this to encourage more people to kind of pick up the nimbus client all right finally here i just wanted to give a quick shout out to this live

stream that bankless is doing on friday at 12 30 p.m uh pacific time and 3 30 p.m eastern time in the us uh that it's going to be called a dive into a dank sharding uh with tim biker as the moderator vitalik buterin dankrad feist and proto lambda as the panelists guys like i am looking forward to this more than i've looked forward to a lot of things simply because of the fact that look at this panel this is a stacked panel like for those of you who don't know i mean you probably know who these people are but i'm just going to say it anyway tim bico like a legend within ethereum at this point like coordinates all the core dev stuff like just just you know without him ethereum would be in a much worse place vitalik i don't even need to say

anything right dan crad uh feist is the kind of like a father of dank sharding which everyone's been talking about lately and is an ethereum researcher at the ethereum foundation he's been doing a lot of great work for a while now um and proto-lambda is also very close to the dank sharding effort now works at actually optimism but he's a kind of like a previous ethereum core dev and working on scaling and research and stuff like that but he's still doing a lot of that stuff as well so i couldn't think of a better set of people to actually talk about this stuff i'm super pumped for it because proto dang sharding is coming in in shanghai hopefully which is after the merge in that network upgrade there so if you want to kind of like learn about uh that and dive deeper into it with you know

the best people to learn from definitely i go i guess like check this out once it's live or set a reminder to watch it live since this is going to be a live stream uh but yeah i think that's going to be it for today so uh yeah thank you everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give the video a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the discord channel and i'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone