Market downturn check: Kyle Reidhead on cycles and altcoins

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily crypto show that still believes even if your last ounce of Hope expired this week I'm your host Jay Hamilton it's Wednesday February 26 we are live and the crypto markets are dead no I'm kidding we're still alive everybody don't freak out we brought on Kyle reidhead today co-owner of milro because nobody brings us the com in a storm like this guy we're going to talk about what the f is going on in markets right now I'll bet you're thinking about selling I bet you're thinking about selling a lot I bet you're thinking is the bull market over

are we cooked you absolutely must tune in to today's episode to understand what is actually happening what the charts are saying what the data is saying because there's a lot of noise out there people and do not get caught up in the noise also Kyle's got a take on altcoin season that's very interesting that we're going to dive in today I bet you a lot of you if I were to tell you that allcoin season might be coming you're probably gonna be like yeah right Jay no chance but Kyle is actually seeing some signs of an allcoin season coming and it's in some analysis in some charts we're gon to look at that today now before we jump in guys this a live show so throw in your comments ask your questions we will take questions at the

end of the show if you're drinking a glass of milk give me a cheers give me a what's up in the chat also Wherever You Are Please Subscribe follow like and even better if you want to throw a little cherry on top of your milk or maybe a little whipped cream I don't know what you put on top of milk chocolate milk I don't know uh give us a fstar review please assuming you actually think we're deserving of a festar review but if you're here I'm pretty sure you do it really helps us grow it helps the show out a lot today's episode is brought to you by crypto.com check out their deit cards if you want to spend your onchain do dollars without further Ado Kyle welcome to the milk roach show what is up Jay we are cooked I'm not calm I'm selling everything I'm totally kidding

of course I'm not doing that good stuff yeah I just saw a comment that they can't see you on YouTube oh no looks like it's fixed maybe it's fixed now I think we're all good let us know in the comments can you see us does everything seem fine on the YouTube stream please let us know in the comments I think it's fine though okay okay let's let's let's start at the top uh what what's going on right now Kai what's what's your take what is happening look we're cooked we're absolutely cooked just kidding uh look I mean it's it feels bad I I don't know I was just talking about this in our in our Pro um we did like an AMA for our Pro uh Discord our Pro members and I don't know why but this feels really bad for a lot of people but then you look at Bitcoin

and like we're only down 21% which is so so par for the course for the space like let me just I'm going to share screen here Jay if you want to pop it up so this one no which one do we do here uh yeah that one there and like so look this looks ugly the fact that it's out of this range but honestly it's not that big deal this is a only like a month and a half two long two month long range it's really not that big of a deal um also maybe we go up above it but like to be down 21% and everyone be so scared just makes no sense Kate maybe it's 22% like we did that 12 times in 2017 we did that nine times in um in 20 2021 so this is so nor we've already gone down 20% I

think five times so far this cycle so like this really is not bad at all now of course eth and soul look a little bit worse here right we're down 49 or so% in eth but guys we were down way worse in earlier in February just three weeks ago we were at 2150 and now we're at what are we at now 2400 so like we've actually put in so far and we a higher low we'll see what happens but like we were worse just a few weeks ago and so it just doesn't really make sense salana obviously though the the big one at the moment it's down quite a bit it's down like 60% um and so or maybe a little bit more than 60% so like that feels bad um but as I was saying just in the just before

this this pump up to $300 didn't really make a lot of sense anyway that was because of the Trump mcoin launch and so that was like an anomaly so you should just forget about that right and then in that world we're not down terribly yes we're down 50 55% from there but like also very very normal every bull market alts go down 50 60 70 80% last cycle soul went down 70% eth went down 60% Bitcoin went down 50 something percent last cycle right um and so like twice last cycle like let me just go Um let's go back to bitcoin and check this out this is what doesn't really make a lot of sense to me um it's almost like

people don't remember but look at this move here in Bitcoin we went from uh 67,000 down to 28,000 50% down in three weeks not even right we haven't done anything close to that right now in Bitcoin bitcoin's on 21% what is everyone panicking about okay if I go to eth eth was nuts during uh during last cycle where is that right here eth went down from I don't know whatever that is 4,000 something down to you know 1,600 it went down 62% in again like 3 weeks and then it went back up a few months later so like I it's just this is normal

and and then also in 2020 the same thing happened with the co dump twice we went down more than 50% in 2020 once in 2021 so like to me guys this is all normal and we have written so many reports saying expect a 30% dip in Bitcoin we haven't even got that yet and so like to me it's like I actually think there could be more pain because this isn't actual pain yet just everyone I think is probably too exposed to alts maybe that's why this feels so much worse I'm not sure um or just I don't know people just want are expecting more but like ultimately you know we could easily go down to the 70s for Bitcoin and that would just put us at a 30% pullback which again happened like five times last last cycle and at least five times

a cycle before that so I just um unless you were holding me coins that are down 99% there's really not a lot of reason to panic right now I understand it sucks but we have been mning people for this entire cycle that this is going to happen we're like yo you guys are going to make amazing gains in crypto over the next few years we said this starting in 2023 but expect crazy pullbacks and we're just in one of those and just people get in their heads in these moments so it makes it why why why does it feel different though this time it does feel different you you said that sort of at the beginning you know I'm I was thinking that uh Lark and I were talking about this um the other day not on camera off camera it this there hasn't been any

sustained optimism in this bull run we we have only had like short moments of pump whereas like when you think back to 2021 remember we had like a six-month period where it was just like everything was good and we just haven't had that is that is that why is it expectations are everyone's expectations are Miss aligned yeah it's 100% expectations I also think it's like a lot of people are bit exhausted they went through the cycle last time they didn't sell it the top and so they were excited for this cycle to be able to make their money and it's just not what it used to be but it's because we're growing up this bitcoin's been around for 15 years we can't expect

the same sort of returns we got in 2017 or even from last cycle it just doesn't make any sense uh and also I think 2022 was tough right A lot of people the BS didn't just go down but like people were scared like FTX collapsed uh the sec's been all over this industry like we've gone through a lot so like I kind of get it but at the same time like we're [ __ ] up a lot in the last three years like we are up a freaking ton Bitcoin was down it bottomed at $116,000 uh at the beginning of 2023 or the end of 2022 let's call it and we're sitting here at 90k almost in three years not even what are we so upset about eth was at $800 you know I think it even Wicked below that at the same time and now it's

at whatever 2400 Soul was at $8 and I understand like we're now we went up to 300 what the [ __ ] are we so mad at coinbase went up 700% in 2023 and another like 200% in 2024 we are on track we are doing fantastic there is nothing to be worried about it's just all expectations um and I mean it's because crypto's a lot of retail newer investors dude anyone getting these kind of results would be so ecstatic in the trafi world right now these results are nuts and so you got to be patient that's all yeah I think as well it depends upon your portfolio and if you came in in November December you bought the top you went down the wrisk

curve you were feeling the excitement Trump got elected you were like it's on the everything Bull Run that everybody's talking about and you made some bad bets at that point and that that I think is a lot of people's POS came in late in the cycle although it's not late in the cycle yet but you came in late in the pump let's call it you bought Bad Assets you're a new investor probably a lot of people listening here at least new in crypto maybe what did you expect this is a game a global game with some of the smartest people and smartest bots in the world that you're going up against did you expect to come in and win in your first month you literally stepped into the NBA and it was your first time ever shooting a basketball and you thought you were G to beat Kobe Bryan and like

LeBron James that makes no freak sense yeah I listen to some YouTube guy who told me it's really easy Kyle come on I just mean like it takes time right you got to just the the key thing this is what I was just saying to the pro members earlier is like you have to spend time in this industry and learn and like you got to go through the ups and the Downs you're in crypto because of volatility right because the volatility upside is massive that's why you're here and so you have to you have to be able to take the volatility on the downside and then also because of volatility you also got to manage your freaking portfolios properly if you go 100% into fart coin that's your fault you lost of course you're feeling pain that was stupid but look you're going to make more money in your life just learn

from it come back keep investing and get smarter get better and this think of this as a 10-year Journey or a 15-year Journey right through your 20s your 30s your 40s you should be building and investing that's how life works and then you can retire early because you've done that right but if you just come in at age 27 you put in $5,000 it goes to zero and then you leave and you never come back well tough you're working till you're 65 now and you're probably not going to buy a house is it's so so hard to have the long-term view of I'm going to be able to retire early in this current moment for most people uh but it's true it's true if you just slow down and take a step back and don't try to chase the big gains and think you're

gonna as you said dunk on Kobe Bryant or whoever in your first time playing basketball Kobe miss you brother but it it it's it's not possible okay let's um let's chat about um a couple things I want to chat about you can decide which direction we go here you want to talk about um a lot of people talk about sex Market manipulation that's happening right now you got any takes on that like Is that real like like I don't know maybe but this happens in all markets again like yes big whales are going to do things that are going to help their bags basically what what Jay is talking about is like when uh whales or people with a lot of of crypto or a lot of whatever asset see weakness in a market and they see where all the liquidation

numbers are they'll sell a bunch of their Capital uh and that'll push the prices down liquidate a bunch of people drive price down even lower and then they can buy back in right uh very common in all markets this happens all the time so like yes is this happening for sure it's happening is it just a centralized exchanges doing this probably not even them doing it it's probably like other whales market makers Citadel Securities is joining which is the most aggressive Trader in all of markets so good luck like this is only going to get harder first of all but like yeah this stuff happens but who cares right um again as long as you don't sell when markets are red then like you're all good because we know that more and more people are going to onchain and so that means Bitcoin eth salana the good assets not the [ __ ] ones

the good assets are going to grow and grow over time just like the internet assets did right Amazon Apple Google you name it all these companies have just gone up and up and up for 25 years 30 years in a lot of their cases right now did they have massive swings and massive pullbacks 100% did people manipulate their stocks 100% did they have frauds or like get rid of their fire their CEOs did they have crisis moments 100% in the Journey of this 30 years of Apple Amazon Google and all that we've had the dot uh bust where the whole entire internet stocks went down 99% we've had the great financial crisis we've had covid and yet you're still up you know Amazon amaz is up a gajillion percent and so is Apple

and so is Google etc etc and so the same is going to happen with crypto with the good assets with the things that are here that are continuing to build that are getting Network effects um and um and they are becoming platforms and important parts of the space like Bitcoin and eth and salana and coinbase like who cares this is all just noise just buy it and keep buying it and then keep holding it and you're G to do great okay I I I was going to ask you is this the bottom but uh I think that's a pointless question right now because just going to tell me that nobody knows uh and that you should keep accumulating the good assets what I'm guessing unless you got another take please share so I I don't know if it's the bottom uh it's hard to call it when like we're still

going down like it's not like we've bottomed out yet and it seems to be chopping we're still kind of it's unsure at this point um I would say there are signs pointing to that it might be the bottom uh if you want to share my screen one of those signs is um Benjamin Cohen has some nice charts and he put out the the bull market support band for Bitcoin which we hit we actually went below we'll see what happens but like um we obviously can go below it as you see down here but generally you hit above it so we'll see what happens that's that's one of them uh and then on the macro side like I think what's happening here really is people are getting Afraid on the macro side because Trump there's tariff talk there's war talk there's all this stuff going on and then you got to

remember that in November there was all these promises about Trump taking crypto to the move Moon and taking the stock market to the moon and now everyone's sitting there going okay here's the things he's doing is it actually going to work there's a lot remember like you run a country the most powerful country in the world you got to negotiate you got to go through tough times just like any business right like you're not going to know what's going to happen right away and the results aren't going to happen right away but this is the market right they think Trump takes over in January and everything's going to change in January and like we're going to go to the moon and it's like oh it takes time to come up with regulation it takes time to figure out negotiate the the the tariffs and put the US in a good

position takes time to get rates lower and all these things and so the market is so mixed and confused right now that they don't know what's going on but I would say is like ultimately what I'm seeing in the market when you just look at the data and forget about all the like headline news and stuff things don't look that bad I mean I talked about the ism I'll pull that up if you want to pull up the chart um this is the business cycle uh chart which you know I showed this one last week and um you know we're above 50 so that is a really good signal to me if we look at the Dixie we're down a lot more than we were when Trump took office when we were up at 110 we're down now to 106 back in this range will we can continue to go

down I don't know but it seems very likely that that's going to happen here it's like ultimately things don't look that bad in my opinion and then what happened today China started their first little bit of stimulus we talked about this on the flash update as well China to the rescue save us China I had the post up here is so China announces this morning that they're ejecting it's only 55 billion it's not a lot but this is the first batch right and so there's more to come here and remember what I said at The Flash update the business cycle is just starting you know uh I didn't say this in the Flash update but in my Pro report that I put on Saturday I think everyone's eyes are focused on the fed and them needing to print money lower rates and I think what really

matters is just we just need the dollar lower and then China will print and both of those things seem to be happening and then crossb capital or Michael how who you've had on the podcast a bunch tweeted this out today he's like look um you know was expected that we get a pullback we had been saying this since December so we're in it still and we've bottomed in liquidity and liquidity is starting to rise now both from China from parts of of the US which um Andreas talked about in the podcast and so it's like maybe we got a little bit lower to go for going to match this thing maybe not I'm not sure right like we don't really know so I don't know for the bottom but I know where we're going once we do bottom and it's not into a bare Market it is into more of a bull market

that I can almost guarantee uh I mean I can't guarantee anything but that makes the most sense when you just understand the data now when that happens I don't know is that today is that tomorrow is that next month I am not sure there I would imagine though in the next no longer than two months we are on our way back up really you think you think so you think so yes because I think China is going to print money way sooner than than they have to they have no choice they're [ __ ] everyone's eyes are on the fed and yes the fed's not going to print money until maybe the second half of the year if they even do and we might not get much lower rates until the second half of the year I get that but it doesn't matter we don't like here

look at this um here's an interesting little factoid for you guys here's the 2017 factoid 2016 2017 bull market I know many of you guys watching right now weren't there for that but during that time we had one of the craziest bull markets ever in crypto right this is when Bitcoin went from I don't even know hundreds of dollars up to $20,000 in like a year it was crazy eth went insane amounts we had this Ico boom everything went crazy here was the fed's balance sheet during 2016 2017 zero they did not participate at all and in fact you know the other thing everyone says well the FED has to lower rates in order for us to get a bull market here was 2016 2017

they were raising rates raising right and so guys we don't need the FED to participate in fact they were actually doing more harm than good in 2017 and we had one of the craziest bull markets in crypto and in equities this wasn't just a crypto thing so we don't need the FED to participate all we need is the dollar to go lower because that did happen during this time right we need the ism to go up because that did happen during this time we need China to print because that definitely happened during this time and so I just think people are too focused on Trump in the FED right now and I think um that will all get figured out and probably takes the end of the year to get figured out which means probably bullish news for the the end of the year but I think until then we just

don't need that stuff figured out we can the rest of the world can can drive our assets forward um so that's more what I look at right now oh gosh so so so such a calming effect coming over me right now uh altcoin season let's talk about altcoins what's what's your take on altcoins are they are they completely cooked and maybe maybe give us a uh all coins is probably the worst word to use use because it basically is trying to classify every non-bitcoin token so feel free to to give us a definition of allcoins as well yeah so I mean altcoins is basically everything over Bitcoin uh starting to to outperform bitcoin so

Bitcoin dominance goes goes down essentially um if you want to actually pull up my screen again I'll just look at Bitcoin dominance here um we so we hit what everyone thought was a top back in November you know we went down like crazy we went from Bitcoin DS at 60 like 2% down to 54% that was a pretty big move uh and then we just skyrocketed back up and back when eth had that puke in the beginning of February went all the way up to like 65% almost we're down from there that's a big wick will we recover from that will this Bitcoin continue to go up I don't know right like right now the one thing holding up Bitcoin is is Sailor guy's still buying two billion dollars every like week uh and no other Al has that so like Bitcoin has held up very very well as a result

of that uh and that's probably the only reason why Bitcoin has held up as strong as it has to be completely honest but even more so what matters for altcoin season is the business cycle in liquidity the ism so the ism whenever it goes above 50 that's when altcoin season starts that's what's happened every single cycle so far okay again people are really stuck on these fouryear cycles and the timing and it's like well altcoin season started in January of I don't know 20 whatever 2021 and so that's when it has to start this time and it hasn't because it's now February so we're cooked and it's like listen the timing is never the same [ __ ] the timing what matters is the data and the ism just so you know what that means when I

say the business cycle is going up the ism by 50 that means we are growing the economy is growing the economy is flourishing people are making money businesses are doing well earnings are good and that means people go more risk on and so in the stock market previous to the ism hitting 50 you have the the majors that do well same with what we have here in crypto Apple Microsoft they've done amazing over the last two years and then the small cap stocks have done [ __ ] because people don't want to take that much risk but when the ism goes up and we're printing money and the business cycle is moving forward then people take risk and you'll start to see small cap stocks do well it's the same thing in crypto right Bitcoin eth the majors do well in this instance mainly just Bitcoin and then the alts which are

eth and everything below it they do better when the ism picks up and that's the world we're going into that's what I'm trying to say when the dollar goes down and China's printing the ism is moving up that's the world where these things start to to um to to beat Bitcoin and I think that is coming still and so I don't think altcoin season is canceled now do I think altcoin season is the same as others no I I I do think it might be a bit different this time around um and the reason for that is there's just different Capital coming into this space look ultimately in the altcoin season when we do go risk on everything is going to is going to go up your mem coins your shitcoins your dog coins your whatever they are also going to go back up we're going to have that moment again

like we've had a few times already the cycle where a bunch of dumb things happen and xrp goes to $3 and you're like why and you know do like whatever dog with hat goes to five bucks or whatever the thing was at five billion because it's got a hat on and you're like what or fcoin goes to two billion because hot air rises it's like these dumb things that happen that'll happen again for sure but what I think is the best way to play altcoin season is and what I think The Narrative is really going to happen here this time around is token BuyBacks um we haven't really had token BuyBacks for two reasons in the past and that's because one it's kind of been illegal or just like uncertain if we could turn that on um and so a lot of

companies in the space or protocols in space don't do it because they don't want to be called a security uh and then the second thing um is we just haven't had a lot of apps that make any money in this space because the space likes to build a lot of dog [ __ ] instead of of real [ __ ] and so for the last 10 years we haven't had anyone making any money so no one could buy back their tokens right if anything the only they could do was sell their tokens or aird drop their tokens and so there's just more and more Supply being put in the market and this is the first cycle where we actually have protocols that generate real revenue and not just a little bit of Revenue but like hundreds of millions of dollars a year in revenue and remember

these protocols don't have thousands of employees like coinbase does or every other company does they have a few or in some cases they have zero right one of maker guys goals by the end of just this year is to have zero expenses and because they're Outsourcing all the expenses to the subd Dows right that's not normal that's a weird situation right zero expenses it doesn't need to make billions of dollars like apple does to be profitable it could make a100 million and it would be a $100 million in profit that's a bit insane and so what do they do with that profit well they can buy back their token why would they buy back their token well it benefits the investors sure but you got to remember Sky holds in their treasury Sky tokens and the team members and the founder they hold Sky tokens and so

everyone wants these protocols to use their profits to buy back the tokens and what's the best Marketing in crypto number go up and so what do you think these protocols want to do they want the number of the tokens to go up and so the the the protocols that have Revenue I think are going to start buying back tokens we've just seen it with maker start this week uh for those of you who haven't seen the best performing asset this month is maker it's the only green asset in this entire space uh and it's happening because it's buying its tokens back uh and Jupiter is starting to do the same we just saw the Unis swap case get dropped from the SEC along with Robin Hood and coinbase and um whoever the other one was so most of those are going away which is starting to free up

these protocols these companies to start to do this and I think um I think that's going to be a massive massive um narrative in in the rest of the year here now where which tokens are going to do that we don't know but you got to look for the ones generating Revenue right um which mainly is like the defi world now uh I'm sorry but your AI tokens and all this other stuff it's all just narrative there is no Revenue there is nothing uh going on there uh in fundamental wise and so I don't think they'll be buying back tokens anytime soon virtuals can't buy back with their $2,000 of Revenue per day right now I mean they were kind of trying to start doing something like that they were making a lot of money now they're cooked but that's fine uh I just want to come

back to the to the ism quickly uh because this is we know we haven't talked a ton about the ism on this show but it is uh a really important data point to look at particularly because this is the first time it's been above 50 in what three years so that's that's a significant milestone for it to be above 50 and just so everybody understands like basically what the ism is is it's a a piece of data where a this organization calls a bunch of um manufacturers and businesses Across America and they say hey what is your current inventory like are you ordering more inventory are you planning for growth in the economy and growth in your

business or are you shrinking and planning for a decrease and right now what they are seeing is everybody is planning for growth everybody is setting up with this belief that we're going to spend more Capital we're going to buy more we're going to load up on our inventory that's what the ism says and so and usually when all the businesses are doing that they're doing that because they believe that the economy is stable because they believe it's a good time for growth and so it's a very it's a key indicator and and so this is it here this this sort of Blue Line you can track it on on trading view uh it only comes out once a month so like it's not updating on a daily basis or anything like like stocks or crypto um but look at this is why we've had this bit of a

weird cycle it's because this took a long time to get back above 50 look at how so this is every cycle we've had previously right if you want to look at in crypto we had a big bull market in 2013 2014 look at what the ism did did boom right we had a big bull market in 2016 2017 look at what the the is7 did boom we had a big bull market in 2020 2021 look at the ism did okay like it's pretty obvious and then we had a big bare Market in 2015 boom we had a big bare Market in 2018 boom we had a big be recet 2022 boom okay but usually it's pretty quick and sharp to kind of come down below 50 and then jump back up this was the first time in a long time since like the great financial crisis that

it's taken multiple multip multiple years right we also had a weird one here with Co because it started to go up and then Co happened so obviously we shut down all the economies it went to like basically zero uh and then and then shot it from there and so um this is this is I think the most important thing to watch but there's a few things you need for this and I think people are a little bit scared about growth in the US because of trump right they're not sure what these tariffs are going to do is that going to slow down the economy can Elon cut the budget deficit enough uh if they're not you know if they're still the FED is not printing and the rates are still high is are we going to be able to get the ism high enough right um

and I think uh like according to the all the managers and if you look at the leading indicators of this there's a bunch of leading indicators that I showed in our Pro reports so definitely go check those out it's like skyrocketed up here it's predicting this just to go way up here right which generally it does do that when it goes above um so that's kind of my interpretation of where markets are going to go and I think we could to do for follow that uh okay what do you do as an investor right now what's what's your strategy how do you play this unknown of these next weeks months yeah look people got to get rid of the short-termism and the get-rich quick stuff you're never going to win in the

space if you do that you just you're never going to win and I know everyone wants to get rich fast but I promise you you will not get rich fast in crypto it's just it's not if there was I would if I could bet on that I would bet on that before betting on bitcoin you know what I mean like I'm more confident that every person here listening right now won't get rich quick in crypto than Bitcoin going to 200,000 I'm sorry but it's just true and even myself but I say that because like I'm confident that even myself I won't get rich quick you know what I mean like I have been in this space long time and I've still made a ton of mistakes the only thing that I've done that's actually allowed me to do really well in the space is I just

kept buying and I never sold you know what I mean like I just took all these punches of all these big pullbacks and just kept going through it and that's crazy to do but like that's how you do it we're in this huge pullback right now but my portfolio crypto is up massively and it exists mainly in Majors but it's up massive because I've been buying for freaking seven years you know what I mean and and look when I first got in I also thought I was going to get rich in three months and then I quickly learned that that's not going to freaking happen me too and then I lost a lot of money yeah right we all do and that's fine but the thing is is getting rich in 10 years or let's not say the word rich but like making multiples on your dollars in

multiple years five years 10 years is pretty damn good right like let's say you can save up $100,000 over a few years and you can just consistently put that in markets every year that goes up 100 150% on average if you just stay in this market and you keep buying Majors if you happen to luck out on some alts maybe you can get that up to a little bit more you do that for 10 years and you're freaking you got 10 million dollars right so because it compounds right and so like over 10 years if it goes up 100% each year that's not a th% that's I don't even know what that number is 10,000% right so it's a lot more and so if you just stick around and keep getting these pretty crazy gains that you get in crypto it's not that difficult and so what I would say is in

these moments the hardest thing that I think for people as investors is we suck at controlling our emotions it is the thing that makes us mess up the most right we're terrible at managing our emotions and that is why most people sell the charts turn red and they buy when the charts turn green I put out a call uh earlier this month on a token I said I think this thing's going to rip and it did okay it did it almost doubled it's the only asset that's done well in the last month and at whatever price I said to buy it at people were like okay cool and then all of a sudden it doubles and now everyone's like hey Kyle should I still buy this thing and I'm like guys the thing just went up 100% I don't know like sure long term I think it's going

to do well but like probably it's going to pull back it just went up 2X but this is just we we we we struggle to manage our emotions we get greedy we get fomo uh and it makes it really really hard to be an investor and so like zoom out hold Majors like just chill and don't get so overworked and honestly the most important thing you do is build conviction learn read Pro reports read books about investing read books about markets go use crypto right like listen listen to podcast like consume consume consume and build conviction because once you have conviction when an asset goes down 50% instead of you thinking

it's over I'm going to zero I should sell you're like well this doesn't make any sense because this is a really cool product I'm just going to buy more of that you know what I mean it's like the amount of times that Apple went down 30 40 50% over the last 25 years if you just used an a Macbook or an iPhone you were like well I'm not selling my iPhone or throwing that out so why is the price down 50% do you know what I mean like apple didn't get worse if anything they just launched airpods and iTunes and all the like I'm using Apple more more in my life I should probably buy more if it's down 50% and so the same thing here is like are you going to use more and more things onchain or less in the coming years my guess is probably more and so

when on when the onchain world goes down by 50% that seems like it's a bargain right not a time to sell but it's hard to reframe your mind to do that it's very very difficult and so the most important thing is stay in Majors because that will that'll limit the volatility and then just work on your mind work on your conviction and that'll change everything for you and moments like today or this last week where things have been read you're actually just trying to buy you're trying to figure out what should I be buying um and then also the most important thing is that when we go into bare markets like we did in 2022 don't leave that's the problem is 90% of the industry left and I know this because we run a marketing agency and a media company and

we work with a lot of crypto and we saw the user base of all the media companies in crypto go down by like 70 80 90% the user base of the protocols went down 70 80 90% and now a lot of you people have come back that prices are up you missed all the best times to buy you miss all the best times to learn to network to get a job if you want to connect if you like you missed all the best moments to do well as an investor as an entrepreneur as whatever it is because you left when things got bad and that's the worst thing you could possibly do uh and so we're going to have a be Market probably in the next 12 to 18 months starting the best thing you can do again thinking long term stick around in that moment keep buying keep

learning build conviction and prepare for the next four or five years because that's where the big money is made if you're coming in late to a cycle like you are now you can still make money but not a lot of money but if you were here in 2023 and you were buying as I said Bitcoin at 16,000 or eth at 800 bucks or salana at eight bucks these pullbacks don't matter you've [ __ ] made it over the last three years but you're never going to do that if you leave every time things get difficult so that's no investor has ever done really well unless they've stuck around and done it for like Warren Buffett the best investor in the world has been doing it for 70 [ __ ] years or 80 years right uh and so there's your answer just stick around and keep learning keep keep

getting better it's a game yeah yeah and and it's a game that is becoming more and more controlled by institutions and smart money who as you said at the beginning of this episode are going to outplay a lot of us and so don't get caught up in it don't get caught up in the day-to-day of it we're not unless you want to go become a professional Trader all the power to you but uh be prepared you better have zero emotions because it's an absolute roller coaster and on your point about emotions too I think this is a time when it is so it is okay to sell if you feel like you can't sleep like you're your stress beyond belief you can't tell your partner

what's going on you don't want to talk to anybody because you're so embarrassed like if you are at that point it's okay to sell to cash or to chill out or to take a break or reallocate your portfolio to Reb feel rebalance I know you don't like selling a cash sell rebound that would be a terrible idea rebound better move yeah because you're not not sleeping at night you're fine 20% pullback is nothing that happens in the talk you're only not sleeping and embarrassed Etc because you because you bought fcoin at2 billion doll market cap so hell yeah you should be embarrassed and yeah you should definitely sell that now and go buy something else even if fcoin might come back doesn't matter why would you do that to yourself makes no sense right if you want to put 1% in your portfolio in farco fine but like

makes zero sense okay uh last last thing I want to talk about before we we let you go today Kai well is there questions are we answering any questions thought we were doing a bit of a Q&A here we we did we we had a few questions come in a lot of people talking about soul I mean if we want to talk let's let's take some soul questions so uh some PE a lot people asking is a good time to load up on Soul um a lot of people talking about uh the decline in new wallets happening over on Soul our friend Michael natu from the def5 report we've had on the show few a bunch of times I think we're actually getting them back on next week uh he did a report recently and uh said that there's a 53% decline in new wallets in the past month on soul is

that a concern does that mean that that shows that Soul really is is driven by all these meme coins and meme coins have gone down a lot so is that is that a concern let's talk with soul for a sec yeah look I think the whole Market is going down in new users at the moment coinbase was down in new users even in Q4 right in its earnings it was down from the the quarter before that and that was the most bullish quarter we've had in a long time and so yeah retail has left over the last month and a half because we've been in a bit of a bare Market since the beginning of December that always happens every time price goes down people leave I just went on a rant telling people not to do that because that's what happens all the time

and so all blockchains are down in numbers at the moment so um now Salon is down a little bit more but that's again because it had that anomaly where it went up so crazily right it went up too much um and um and so again it's not as bad as it seems and then also like if you look at the new mints uh in terms of pump. fun like they're still pumping out 40,000 tokens a day over there on on pump. fund so like it's not over and it's not at zero you know what I mean like things are still happening over there and then um I know mcoin activity was a lot was the main activity over on salana and so uh that sort of is is what expectations are is like well if mcoins go away then salana is gonna go away one

that's probably not going to happen there's other things happening on Sal it's got stable coins it's integrated into strip Etc like there's still a lot of things happening on Sal it's got dpin It's got AI agents it's got all the things it just mcoins had a bit of a moment right just like ethereum at one point had the Ico boom well icos went away and eth is still thriving you know nfts was the big thing last cycle that basically has gone away and everything's still all good right so like I just don't think that these things even salana was starting to get a a momentum on nfts last cycle and no one touches nft trading anymore uh and look the next thing salana found the next thing in mcoins and it'll find the next thing in probably AI agents or whatever and so like I just again are more people going

to come on chain or not over time and the answer is more uh and so like not really concerned um salana has massive Network effects the fastest growing developer Community um and so I'm really not worried do I think Soul's a good buy here yeah absolutely if it gets down to 12 125 then it's a hell of a buy but I mean we're at 135 still a hell of a buy um I I'm not really concerned about salana whatsoever I get it sucks going down to 65% sucks but like again this has happened many times before uh in various assets so not really um not really too much of a concern uh this this just happened uh shout out to Lion Wolfie who just posted this in the chat so Trump just announced 25% tariffs on the EU oops wrong screen here uh uh oh

more tariffs um this doesn't mean tariffs are actually happening on the EU this is Trump being Trump and putting out a lot of fear and negotiation tactics you concerned about this in the ongoing tariff talk no I'm not I'm actually I've been saying all along I'm not concerned about tariffs at all I it's completely a negotiating to we saw it here in Canada where he threatened it and then immed like literally 24 hours later uh trau folded and did what he needed to do now I know that you know he's still there's still talks there and it still might come um but again this is all just negotiating tools this just how it works which is this is why the market is so spooked because they don't know what's

happening um some people don't like his tactics of doing this of course it sucks but like this is how it works doing business right especially when your business is running a country of hundreds of millions of people uh and there's trillions of dollars of trade that's at um at stake here like this [ __ ] matters and so he's got to do what he's got to do now could this cause problems of course it could um but like generally Trump doesn't want to see the stock market tank or the US economy tank and so like is he really going to do these things like probably not you know I think it's just all negotiating tool tactics so uh again just we got to have some patience we got to let this Market turmoil just kind of get figured out uh

which is GNA take time and this is why I say I don't know when the bottom is because you just never know what's going to happen in the geopolitical sense right uh and um and so we just go to wait to wait be patient um and probably it's going to bring I don't know what's going on your markets right now I haven't looked but like probably it's just going to bring 86k Bitcoin we we're we're nuking again here uh I mean which is isn't a surprise this news as you said completely Spooks Market um couple people asking about uh dex's on salana uh radium Jupiter uh drift Cloud Camino Etc you like you like those trades I mean I know you like defi a lot

yeah I mean so radium did extremely well because of meme coins uh and so I don't haven't looked recently but the revenues were super high the token was doing quite well I'm G to imagine if I was to look right now that radium is down bad uh and probably its revenues are down bad too uh I don't know I haven't looked I just it makes sense with the market uh and so does that mean radium's done because vcoin trading is potentially slowing down and again I say potentially because it all could come back right like we don't know uh memecoins died at one point and then came back and now they've died again and will they come back like let's see maybe it's not mcoins anymore it's AI agents right like there's still going to be people trading there's still gonna be people coming on

chain so Dex is I think are great business models now here's the thing if the revenue has gone down a ton radium but the token hasn't probably not a good buy right but if the token has or even it's gone down even more than Revenue because people are spooked it's often what happens maybe it's a good buy uh I think Dex are are great businesses um they generate tons of Revenue they're the most integral thing that we do on chain everyone needs to use a DEX and so um if you can find the one that's going to win out then uh then yeah it's great Jupiter for example is buying back its own tokens and burning them right now right it's generating good Revenue it's it's a great product has all the users so yeah I love dex's um you just gotta find the ones that that make the most

sense one more question from the chat here uh Marcus great question going to bring this one up so Marcus asked what do you think about May 2025 so with all being down so bad right now will will we have this recovery as we typically would around are we going to have a tax season are we GNA have like an April May pump and then a summer lull as we did last year and then a Q3 Q4 blowoff top maybe going into 2026 what's your thought um I mean I don't know we'll have to just see how the markets play out right like typically that's what happens it's what's happened the last two three years here in crypto where

We've ran up in the in the first quarter or the early part of the second quarter of the year and then we've kind of chopped for months during the summer we did it in 2023 we did it in 2024 uh and then we ripped in Q4 it's happened the last two years straight uh which is quite interesting will that happen this year I don't know I mean if we if we just chop around for a few months here then maybe we have a good summer you know and change things up a little bit it could happen um but my guess is in the next month or two we have some big upside for you know a month or two I don't know however long uh and then probably we we chop in the in the summer as well and then I think we do well at

the end of the year um it kind of always happens so I don't see why it would be any different this time around um just because you know we've had a rough February februaries generally aren't the best anyway for for crypto markets um we'll see what happens here in March I can't imagine we're goingon to go much slower than we are so generally it's probably good news let's go March March let's go March feeling good about March everybody put out the Good Vibes for March Kai thanks so much for joining us today everybody thanks for showing up live 750 people live we look at the crypto Market's down and we are hitting alltime highs live we only we go live this is our third live I think and uh it's great to see everybody showing up we greatly appreciate you if you guys are here make sure you subscribe to the

channel so you get our daily updates every day we got some great guests coming up over the next week we'll be live again next Wednesday at the same time same place thanks so much for joining in everybody have a wicked awesome day