Is macro breaking crypto or forcing it to grow up? Bart Smith

Transcript

Having been through these cycles before, you know, I I I've gotten a flavor for them. I think that a lot of the things that people had enthusiasm about in, you know, in the first and second and and into the third quarter this year is all still true. I just think we need a little bit more runway to to take those, you know, that positive sentiment and have it turn into like practical implementation. And I think that's what 2026 is going to be all about. It's going to be like the prove it year. You know, it's prove it to the doubters and and to to a certain degree, it's prove it to ourselves. Bitcoin is on its way to closing a red candle for the year.

This has surprised many investors because the US has had the most pro- crypto administration in history. Is Bitcoin rolling over into a bare market? Or is there reason to expect that 2026 will be bullish for digital assets? Hello and welcome to Milk Road Macro, the podcast that knows that no matter what happens, you're going to guess wrong. I'm your host, John Gill, and today is Monday, December 15th, and we are joined today by Bart Smith. Bart is an investment professional specializing in digital assets. He served as the global head of digital asset strategy at Saskuana International Group, where he was known as Wall Street's Bitcoin King for his early advocacy of cryptocurrencies. In 2025, he became the CEO of Avalanche Treasury Company, overseeing strategies for blockchain and crypto investments. Bart is going to

give us a ton of alpha on macro, crypto, Bitcoin, and a whole lot more. So, if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. Today's episode is brought to you by Reserve ETFs. get exposure to the entire crypto market in a single token. And without further ado, welcome to Milk Road Macro. Bart Smith. How are you, sir? >> I'm great. How are you, John? >> I'm really fantastic. I'm glad to have you on the show today because I think you're going to bring a really unique perspective to a lot of things. Uh, I wanted to begin with your general thoughts on the market. Uh, looking back on 2025, stocks and gold are near all-time highs. The Feds cut rates to 3.75%.

QT's over. They're buying, uh, T bills again. What stands out to you the most about this market environment we're in or what has surprised you the most I guess from 2025 so far? >> Crypto broadly is still uh mostly driven by macro kind of headlines. And so while the stock market in a very concentrated number of companies technology AI oriented has done well the the marketplace geopolitical and and macro has have been difficult headwinds for for crypto. I I think so I bifurcate Bitcoin and then crypto broadly. Uh you know I think I think Bitcoin is digital gold and I think there's some unique facets there. I think within the crypto community um I think that we have the

attention of institutional investors. I I think that that they're asking tougher questions than maybe some investors in the past have had and said, you know, like what am I paying for and then and when when am I going to see revenue uh that's going to support some of these prices? And I think that, you know, when I talk to people in the industry, I think overarching, you know, we're going to have to work a little bit harder. Uh I think that there there's a more discerning investor ahead, but I think that there's, you know, a lot of people with their heads down working right now. And I think 2026 provides a better macro backdrop and the ability for a lot of the pro progress that's being made in blockchain to be able to be demonstrated to this next group of investors.

>> Really appreciate the thoughts on that. Um, I do want to ask another question about that. You said Bitcoin is digital gold. There's been a long-standing debate over whether Bitcoin is more like a commodity like gold or if it's more like a risk asset, a tech stock like a NASDAQ um, asset. Um, how do you think about Bitcoin in that framework? Where on that spectrum do you put it and and sort of like what do you think the view on Wall Street is of Bitcoin? >> I definitely still believe it to be digital gold. Uh, it is a relatively new asset, right? And so all all new good ideas are volatile. Um and so I I think in in many respects, you know, people are still trying to understand from an institutional perspective like how do I think about this asset? I think that debate that you just talked about is

still going on uh within the institutional community. So I think ultimately it's going to end up at digital gold right now. how it is you know is a very reflexive asset uh and it is you know still primarily driven by market sentiment and then obviously liquidity in the markets. I think an under reportported factor uh in some of the weakness is that you know is that the the Fed with their their time off uh you know the government shutdown like that was a lot of liquidity that was taken out of the market and so you know the crypto broadly is a liquidity driven asset class and so if liquidity is taken out of the market it's it's going to it's going to create some some headwinds I think that you're seeing that you know

uh you know right now and obviously with the we had a little bit of optim optimism last week with that rate cut you saw you know Bitcoin go up to 94K and now you know the questions become like when when's the next rate cut and so I think I think as you set up for kind of midterms um and it being an important election year generally the government um tends to be very accommodating during this time period so I think I think it's widely believed that the the next you know Fed chair I is going to be accommodating and so I think all of that sets up for a very good outlook for 2026 And right now I think people are just trying to find direction.

>> I appreciate your thoughts on that. And yeah, I think you know the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting days are always really interesting in the digital asset space because we all set aside these cipher punk freedom money values and ask our fiat overlords to pump our bags. Um, so that's always kind of like a ironic moment. Um, but I do want to kind of drill down on this idea of liquidity because I I appreciate your positive and constructive outlook for 2026, which we'll talk more about, but a lot of people are saying that the the things driving Bitcoin is this four-year cycle that we've already topped, that we're rolling over into what could be a year-long bare market for Bitcoin. Where are you in this camp? Are you in the lengthening cycles camp? Are you in the four-year cycle camp? How do you think about this debate that's going on in

Bitcoin right now? >> I think to some extent both sides are right. I I I think ultimately the people who say like the having is, you know, is so much smaller than it used to be and therefore it's irrelevant. That can be true and you can still have a four-year cycle, right? you can still have a and and maybe it's not exactly four years, but like you have periods of enthusiasm where prices might get a little bit ahead of themselves and then at some point people kind of step in and say like maybe this is overvalued and they sell or the buyer says like all right well like this is a pretty healthy valuation like prove it. Um and so you have periods of consolidation. You know, you have periods of doubt. You know, I was at um the Abu Dhabi Finance Week uh

last week. It has a a very uh large crypto following now and and I had the opportunity to meet with a lot of people there and and sentiment was was was, you know, reasonably sour, right? like when when when asset prices are down in you can still work towards meeting your goals but like it does overhang the market a little bit and you know the question I asked a lot of the the cryptonative people who were experiencing you know these headwinds you know do you think this is totally worthless technology and they said no and I said okay well then maybe we haven't bottomed yet because generally in the last couple of bottoms it comes with like an existential crisis where people like they start questioning

whether they've been wasting, you know, all of their time and energy. And so I I think that that having been through these cycles before, you know, I I've gotten a flavor for them. I think that a lot of the a lot of the things that people had enthusiasm about in, you know, in the first and second and and into the third quarter this year is all still true. Uh I just think we need a little bit more runway to to take those, you know, that positive sentiment and have it turn into like practical implementation. And I think that's what 2026 is going to be all about. It's going to be like the prove it year. You know, it's prove it to the doubters and and to to a certain degree, it's prove it to ourselves.

>> If you are listening to this right now and thinking, "Okay, but what's really driving the economy right now?" Well, that's what Milkroad Macro Pro is for. Every month, our big brain researcher Thomas drops a monster report about the state of the economy, including metrics and charts you can't find anywhere else. It's all in-house analysis created by our research team. Plus, you can even chat with me directly in Discord and during our Milk Road Macro Pro AMAs, which we do every month. If you want to invest with context instead of just chasing headlines, Milk Road Macro Pro is where you need to go to level up. So, hit the link below in the show notes to join our community and get on the alpha. Jordi Vist wrote a uh a piece on Substack that went viral about Bitcoin's silent IPO. And Jordy is a previous

guest of this podcast, so if anybody missed our episode with Jordy, definitely recommend you check that out. Um, but he basically commented on what we've seen, which is a lot of selling from some of these OG investors, like very longstanding Bitcoin investors. How are you thinking about this? Is this reflective that their faith has been shaken? Is this just like a natural growing up of the the asset class? Like, what are you thinking about this? And like how much does this selling pressure concern you? I mean, I I think to to listen, anytime you have longstanding whales selling to the degree they are, in many cases, you know, I think that they're like they're selling all of their bags and not like taking money off the table. I also think some of the statistics there are a little bit maybe misinterpreted because I think there,

you know, there was a lot of of transfer into digital asset treasuries that I think accounted for some of that wallet movement. Yeah. I I think I think the sentiment that that there's a lot of people who are very early who had you know 90 plus% of their net worth in this incredibly volatile asset class like and them wanting to to take a break is something that anyone who's been in crypto for a long time has empathy for. uh you know I had a period in in in in my you know in my trajectory where I got exhausted by the volatility and I was you know not in crypto for a period of time and it was it was nice right not having to have all of your net worth tied up into a 75 asset but I I think I think that there is a natural path here.

I think the IPO analogy is is a good one where like you know you you you had such a high concentration of this asset in such a small number of people that there is you know a natural moment where that needs to diversify and transfer. I think that that is a a reasonable way to look at this. I I you know all I can say is from the from the institutional side you know the the the the benefit of the ETF um and now derivatives in the traditional markets you know and not on non-registered non US exchanges but being able to express your point of view through options or through futures and and not simply just owning spot has opened up the universe of of

institutional investors who might not even be buy and hold investors, right? The Bitcoin and crypto are very volatile assets and and that has a lot of benefit to an entire universe of investors who invest in commodities and they invest in currencies. And so the ability for them to think about this asset class and apply it to traditional investment metrics where you're getting return not as a buy and hold investor but by making bets on volatility and forwards and and macro. I think all of that is is a plus. Um, I do think that that, you know, the idea that people who have been holding Bitcoin for seven, eight, 10 years, you know, want to take, you know, some money off the table, particularly as the asset

class matures, it it, you know, it's is is Bitcoin a 100x opportunity now? I mean, I know Michael Sailor would say yes, but I think there's other people out there that feel as it's a mature asset class. They might want to take that money and put it into something that's much earlier stage like AI or some of these other uh new technologies out there. So, there's been a lot of different theories around this. I think I think they're all, you know, they all have merits. You know, if I knew for 100% the answer, this this game would be a lot easier. Um, but I do think the concept that people want to take money off the table. They're long-term investors. they maybe want to deploy things into to to new opportunities and new investments. Makes sense to me.

>> Gotcha. So, there's a lot of theories to explain this, but all of them have a little bit of validity and it just kind of makes logical sense that a person would want to diversify a little bit. I I I can definitely understand that. That makes sense to me. Okay. So, you you you had kind of raised this question about your experience in Abu Dhabi about whether or not Bitcoin has bottomed. And I'd like to hear your thoughts on that because I've heard calls that are frankly wild about Bitcoin going back to 30K and like all kinds of things like this. Do you think that we are forming a bottom here? Bitcoin right now as we record this is is it lost 90K. It's in the high 80s. Um do you think we're forming a base to move higher? Do you think we're going to chop? What what are

you expecting from Bitcoin in the short term here? Well, so one of the things that has been encouraging in in in talking to institutional investors over the course of the last couple of months is that, you know, there is the concept of I don't want to buy Bitcoin at 100. I want to buy it at 80 or 75. And I think there's a lot of institutional people who are positioned to accumulate Bitcoin lower. That is the benefit of of these more traditional finance vehicles to get access to to Bitcoin. So, you know, anything is possible. And I think that there's a lot of macro things out there could certainly drive prices lower in the short run if you, you know, if you had, you know, some sort of bad, you know, inflation print where, you know, you felt like that was getting out of control, you know, we've kind of

positioned into like a bad jobs number is good. Uh, right. So like bad numbers are good again. And so, you know, if you had like a a a softening in the employment market, that would probably be good for prices. But if you had like a real surprise weakening, you know, the elephant in the room is all of this AI infrastructure, that's been like a a large part of GDP growth, you know, in in over the last couple of of quarters. So, I think there there's things out there that if any one of those three things had a really bad print, Oracle came out, you know, with some kind of weak numbers and and it kind of shook a little bit of the thoughts around AI.

Any one of those things could drive the price of Bitcoin meaningfully lower. I I I I would be very surprised if in the absence of something like that, if Bitcoin didn't catch a bid in the 7580 standpoint. I just think there's a lot of people out there who want to own a little bit of Bitcoin in in large pools of assets who look at it as, you know, a diversifying uh you know, nonsvereign expression of of of medium of exchange. You know, I I think some of some of the the the comments recently have been like, "Oh, well, Bitcoin is dead because the stock market is up and it's down."

Where like its greatest criticism has been its correlation to tech stocks over the last couple of years. So, it's like, which one is it, right? Like, is it being correlated to tech a bad thing where it's not a diversifier or it has a period of time where it underperforms where tech in a very concentrated number of companies outperforms and therefore that's the indicator that it's dead. So I I don't know how to resolve those two things. Um I I do know that the the uh the interest in owning Bitcoin by institutions is orders of magnitude higher than it was. And I think in my conversations with them over the past couple of months, they're they're interested buyers here. You know, there's also just a there is a tradey uh kind of cycle to the calendars where

like the last couple of years December have been pretty bad for a bunch of reasons. banks tighten their balance sheets so like leverage kind of gets withdrawn from the system. You know, wealth management shops have done a lot of like uh tax loss selling to you know harvest gains and losses for their customers. There's a lot of things at bay that make December a tough month and in January new fresh capital comes into the market. So I think all of those things you could make an argument are good setups for you know people stepping in at a price in the you know 75 80 range. I I I don't I don't subscribe to, you know, the the technical research around this stuff. Um, and so I I can't really opine too much there, but I I do think that from a fundamental basis,

people are interested in acquiring Bitcoin, and there's just some point in time where institutions who have been successful over time, they hold their nose and they buy, right? Like, you know, if if if if you're buying when headlines are good and selling when headlines are bad over time, that probably makes you a pretty bad investor. And I think that the successful investors, you know, do the opposite. >> ETFs provide investors with a structured, disciplined, and diversified approach to crypto, which is cool, but the world is moving on chain. We need a crypto native equivalent. That's exactly what Reserve's decentralized token folios, DTFs, [music] bring to the table. Reserve ETFs are rule-based baskets of crypto assets packaged into a single token, like Coin Market CMC 20, Crypto's version of the S&P 500. Go to

milkroad.com/reserve to find out what's on offer. That makes a lot of sense and I appreciate that context. Yeah. So, what I'm hearing you saying is that there might be some more downside but not all that much more and at some point there is going to be a bid that's found here um and we should form a base and move higher. So, I think we're all watching to see what happens there. But yeah, I appreciate the thoughts there. Um I want to ask your thoughts on the broader digital asset ecosystem and broader digital asset space. All coins have been in a secular bare market basically since 2021 following the Luna and FTX crash. Um, I know you're the CEO of a digital asset treasury company focused on Avalanch's AVAC token. Um, but just, you know, speaking broadly about the space, how concerned are you about this lack of

like sustainable investor attention on the altcoin space and what is it going to take to make altcoins investable again? >> I think I think you know my comments earlier is kind of the o overarching theme that I'm getting which is like what am I paying for, right? And I I think the industry has there's so much promise in in the in the benefit of blockchain technology and being implemented into businesses and governments to make them run more efficient and cheaper. And you see use cases in the tokenization of loyalty points and you see stable coins and obviously gaming has been a vertical and and and there's all of these different opportunities that are out there and I think sometime you know I think

sometimes the industry has not done a great job of communicating what the actual value proposition is in a tangible way that people understand right and so and I think AI does this right like I think I think a lot of the concern concerns around AI is you hear all these headlines about how AI is going to take people's jobs and how much energy consumption it has and that you know the machines are going to take over the world and and get rid of us and and we've not done a great job in maybe communicating what the actual value is to you know the consumer on the street. I feel like the same thing happens in crypto. It's, you know, it's it's, you know, used for moneyaundering and and for, you know, funding, you know, countries that that that do bad things and all these bad actors and and we

haven't really gotten into kind of this is how companies will implement it. This is how people can use it uh in a way that makes their lives better. And I think in the best uh implementations of that, a lot of times you don't even know that you're using that technology, right? So like you know Avalanche has done a a I would say you know a better job than than all these other blockchains at having enterprise relationships with you know FIFA and Toyota and KKR and Apollo and you know those types of you know business you know uh utilization doesn't really excite the core DGEN crypto community but it does point towards like adoption in the future and like an actual usefulness of the asset. I think that

that I think that's you know the question that people have to answer in in 2026 is if I'm coming in I'm an institutional investor and I'm looking at the suite of you know beyond stable coins and and beyond kind of bitcoin and I'm looking at this universe of investable assets whether they're infrastructure or applications built on top of infrastructure what am I paying for right and so and and the opportunity to buy it later will always be there and so there if there isn't a catalyst now right? Then then show me show me what I'm investing in and we're going to have to get to some sort of traditional metrics. Right? And so I know that there's a lot of people who think that

the point of crypto is to get away from, you know, the, you know, financial services intermediation and that, you know, decentralization is going to save humanity. But like at the end of the day, if the next investor is going to be institutions, they do not buy on vibes, right? They are not like they're not addicted to crypto Twitter and and they're looking for tie-ups with FIFA and Toyota to show the mech law, right? Like that's that's what people usually, you know, in some form or fashion reference. And like what is the benefit of blockchains? It's like, well, it's like all of these different nodes, you know, in combination will create scalability which will, you know, will will take utilization up and and their scarcity and and I want to invest in

that and like that does not motivate the next buyer. And so how do we actually take blockchain technology? How do we how do we demonstrate the infrastructure? How do we demonstrate the applications on top of that infrastructure as being a benefit to companies, to governments, and to individuals? And so that's going to be, you know, that's going to be the task, you know, in 2026 is listen, great macro environment. You add liquidity, prices will go up, right? And so like that that trumps all right now, but there will be differentiation in in the next investor about what I'm actually investing in.

And so I think that that's, you know, that's a little bit of the homework that we got uh as an industry in the fourth quarter, like we got to go out and prove it. >> I think that that's really true. And I think it's not just about demonstrating that value, but communicating it. And I think, you know, Bitcoin did a great job with that simple digital gold narrative. Ethereum is trying to tackle this problem, but I think a lot of other assets in the altcoin space are also trying to figure that out. I'd like to hear you expand more on on a narrative or a way of communicating this that I heard you I don't know if you coined the term, but I've heard you use this. You said that Avalanche and Avac are enterprise software solutions. Could you elaborate a little bit on that? Like how

do you see this particular ecosystem situating itself as an enterprise software solution and like what does that exactly mean to you? Tell us a little bit more about that narrative there. >> Yeah, I know that there's been like the like the digital oil and I I thought for a minute should like Avalanche like should we pick a commodity before like everybody else picks them all away like or like digital copper? Yeah, I don't know if Digital Copper will will get there. I mean, I think listen, it's it's it's the blockchain for business, right? Like that's that's what Avalanche is, the blockchain for business. And then what when they when it truly achieves, you know, the the the the benefits I think it will have most of the time that you are using Avalanche, you won't know it, right? And so, you know, what you'll

see is more and more in a lot of these enterprise relationships, you have powered by avalanche, right? So you have this infrastructure that underlies it the same way that Oracle database infrastructure in the 80s and 90s was what everyone built on and they built like this like really sticky business, right? Where like you continue to build on top of that. I think that companies and governments are going to be able to build on top of avalanche to make solutions that are better for, you know, their their citizens or their customers. Uh, but those entities still need to do things like KYC and AML and they they they they don't want to put all of their, you know, their citizens or their their customers, you know, private information on public blockchain. They don't want to share block space with

anonymous, you know, people. And I think for all of those reasons, you know, Avalanche is going to win that vertical. And then there's all these other verticals that that Avalanche might not win, right? Like stable coins or other things. But I think, you know, we're this is not going to be a onechain wins all world. There's going to be just like there is in business, right? There's it's not the mag one, it's the mag seven, right? There's going to be different verticals where different blockchains and different strategies have appeal and benefit to certain people. And I think you just have to focus on your areas of strength and and and and try to, you know, get the most out of that. And so I think that that is how I think about positioning, you know, Avalanche and and how I think other blockchains should think about

positioning themselves. You know, I think that there are blockchains out there who want to be completely anonymous and they want, you know, the a scalable world where you can build applications on top of it. Ethereum has effectively become like, you know, the security layer for all of these apps on top of uh on top of Ethereum. And I think that makes a ton of sense. But they I think that you know I think that each blockchain is going to have to demonstrate what they what the vertical is and what the appeal is for them. Um you know from a from a a 30,000 foot level I think that a lot of these organizations are trying to be all things to all people.

And I think that you're gonna, you know, I think what you're going to see, uh, one of the, one of the benefits of having, you know, institutions come in is that, you know, they will require you to be held accountable and like and and prove results, right? And so I think we've gotten to the place we are and, you know, the market cap that we have and it's a three or four trillion dollar, you know, market cap industry. In order to grow that to 10 or 20 trillion, which I think what most people in this industry feel like is going to happen, I think we're going to have to demonstrate, you know, a more practical value in the future.

>> So, from what I'm hearing you saying, it sounds like the way you think about Avalanch's competitors. Um, you you see it as being sort of like the legacy technology stacks and legacy systems that these companies have been using to build their their products and services on as opposed to Avalanche competing so much with other, you know, blockchains or digital assets. It's more about like trying to improve on the existing ways of doing business or maybe the old ways of doing business. How do you think about that comp competitive landscape? Who who who is Avalanche really up against here and and how are you uh like winning that narrative or winning that competition? I guess >> I I think I think you know that DeFi is an interesting uh acronym that like from a regulatory standpoint is actually kind of problematic. Um and so I think that I

think that you know the way that I think about Avalanche is its infrastructure, right? it it's it's enterprise software it's infrastructure and I think that there is you know inside of you know what you would consider to be decentralized finance or you know uh you know smart contract layer ones there's just varying you know shades of of what people are working on so it's like a big difference between like what is infrastructure and what is an intermediary right because intermediaries likely have to be regulated infrastructure should not be wallet should not be you know data providers should not be infrastructure providers should not And so I think as as we get through this next phase and and one of the one of the things that comes with regulatory clarity which you know on the margin is good but it's like

you you know you you is that this there's this you know debate going right now and and Citadel is kind of at the forefront of it is like trying to lob everything into traditional uh regulatory frameworks because that's the easiest path for them. And I think what you're going to see is like this bifurcation of like what is infrastructure and like what and what is this what is the actual application of this from a practical sense and then therefore like we apply whatever reasonable legal and regulatory framework for that and then if you want to have intermediaries well that's a whole different kind of you know ball of wax and so I think like a great example of that is like in prediction markets right like are you like are you the CME or you poly market right because like poly market is very much not an intermed

intermediary, right? Like the people who are providing that, you know, who are providing that liquidity are are doing so kind of their own accord and then, you know, I I think poly market is just like infrastructure. But if you are the CME or you're a centralized exchange and you're you know, you you create like a club, you know, and like people go to that, then those two things should be regulated differently. And so one of the real benefits of blockchain technologies like going back in and ripping out all of the equity infrastructure that has been built up over the last you know 25 plus years is hard but if you're going to build like but if you're going to build prediction markets from scratch like you would do it on blockchain technology. So I think like going back in and changing, you know, tokenizing

stocks and having them trade 24/7, like to me that's an inevitability, but like there's all of this latent infrastructure and and and obviously all of this inertia to keep it in place. Whereas like new industries that are being built from scratch like AI or like prediction markets, which is kind of becoming its own asset class, like that should be built on infrastructure. And so that's kind of how I think about comparing the two. It's like are you an intermediary or are you just infrastructure and those two things should be regulated very differently. >> It was really helpful Bart to hear your thoughts around that and you know you brought up regulation. Um the Clarity Act is rumored and hopefully uh potentially going to become law. Yeah, exactly. Uh it's coming soon by

Christmas. They've said >> I talked to my contractor. It's uh next week [laughter] it be done next week. >> It does it really does feel like that at this point but you know look the rumors are that it's it's under debate. It could be passed into law soon. Let's hope. Um, but I I really do want to hear your thoughts on the impact of this because a lot of people have said that this will unlock a a huge wave of institutional capital to come into crypto and and the broader digital asset space. A lot of people have also been concerned that this is just going to bring in a lot more competition and new projects from from legacy um companies. Uh, how are you thinking about this? Is this going to be a boon for the industry? Is it going to create more competition? What are you thinking about

in terms of the Clarity Act? Yeah, I think in in general like there there is even if Clarity Act were not to go through, there's like enough work that the CFDC and the Treasury Department and the SEC could do on their own without congressional approval. I I think that's like a major point. But let's assume that we get, you know, this legislation, you know, passed and and it obviously like the devil's in the details. There's going to be competition from like the incumbent tech stack, right? like you know Google and you know and and uh you know Facebook and all of these like massive behemoth you know technology companies if if they sense an opportunity they are you know they are so wellunded right that they that they

can throw so much more money at this so like there's going to be competition from Google um and so I think that that's just a natural evolution right that that that in order to be successful in a crypto asset class that is being measured on results, like competition is going to get steeper and and the rewards will get steeper. And so I think that I think that's that's generally how I think about it. It's like, you know, that that that in the early stages of this, you know, you could you could create a new idea. You could get, you know, some a big following on Twitter.

You would create tokens. Those tokens would have value. you could turn that value into kind of marketing and hire people and like that like that didn't require results. I I I think broadly those days are over and so I think this is going to be a hyperco competitive asset class. I think that as you as the institution, you know, institutionalization around this happens, which is what we were all waiting for, right? Like that's that's the the natural progression there is that there's going to be steeper competition and there going to be non-cryptonative uh you know established technology wellunded organizations that decide that they too want to build their own blockchain and try to explore you know how they could you know make money off

of this you know this implementation of this technology. So I think that that's just a natural evolution. I think that the the cryptonative incumbents have a lot of advantages. they've been working on this for a long time. I think there's a lot of institutional knowledge in there. And I think that like standing up a blockchain um that that that can that can withstand, you know, the the the requirements of having 24-hour, you know, open-source technology like that's not something that's built overnight. So I think that there's a lot of there's a moat around Avalanche and Salana and Ethereum um that they've been focusing this for a long time but they go up against you know firms that have armies of developers and a lot more uh you know

economic capacity and so it'll be an interesting thing to watch over the coming you know months and years. As you listen to this show, there is something that is hanging over the entire economy right now, and that thing is AI. And the problem with AI content is that almost no one explains what it actually means for investors. Our new AI newsletter fixes that. Twice a week, we break down the moves, the winners, the losers, the risks, as well as where the puck is going to be going next, which in AI changes dayto-day almost. So, if you invest in tech at all, you need to get in on this one to know what's going on. Keep up with the alpha, keep up with the trends. It's free. It comes out twice a week. You're going to love it. It's going to help you a lot. Hit the link in

the description to get subscribed there. Absolutely. Yeah, there's a lot of market share that's up for grabs and a lot of big players with a lot of capital going to be competing for it. So, I'm definitely going to be paying close attention to that, too. I want to ask uh a final question here just around sentiment. As you've kind of described, institutional interests, investments, adoption, utilization of of blockchain, of digital assets has never been this high. We've never had this supportive of a regulatory environment. At the same time, retail investor sentiment has never been this bearish. Well, not never, but this is about as bad as it's been. Like interest in terms of like paying attention from retail at an all-time low. Sentiment has been terrible. Um, can you give me your thoughts on this this divergence that we're seeing and what needs to happen?

What are some white swan catalysts that might sort of reignite some investor attention in this market and sort of bring back some of these retail investors who've gotten really either bored or just disillusioned with crypto? So the institutional sentiment is like is two sides of the same coin and that is on one side the optimist side is like there's a tremendous amount of interest like there's basically no financial services company whether it's payments asset management asset management you know like proprietary trading who aren't who don't have a blockchain strategy like they have a you know a group of people that they're focused on this. The downside of that is like when you go in and sit down with them, their questions are like very remedial, right? And so like it and so they they realize there's something there, but they don't know what it is. Uh and so I think that that

th those two things like I I keep pointing to like 2026, like those are things that are going to resolve themselves, you know, in in in 2026, retail sentiment, you know, is is is generally, you know, a an inverse indicator, right? Like so like if you know like the the the buying you know the buying when people are fearful and and selling when people are greedy is like you know one of the basic tenants of of of investing something that as human beings were like generally programmed not to be great at. So like I understand when prices are down like this sentiment gets bad Google searches go down and and people focus their energy on you know other things. I I think that I think that's all positive.

I think that the fact that the institutions are so focused on this and and yeah, maybe it's early stages than we want and I think the fact that that, you know, retail is, you know, feeling not great about prices because stocks are, you know, at all-time highs and, you know, a lot of these cryptos are 20, 30, 40% off their all-time highs. Like that is what you would expect if, you know, if if if retail sentiment was was was super high right now, I wouldn't say that we were, you know, near a bottom. So, and I'm not calling a bottom now. I'm just saying like you can't you can't build, you know, a a bedrock floor from a price reduction like this until, like I going back to my point of like until you think it's worthless technology.

Like I think people have to be very despondent. Um, and that's when and that's when you have kind of that final flush and then you build from there. So, I I do think the institutional Bitcoin buyer is out there, right? I think I think barring you know one of those three like major events being super negative or something more likely that I hadn't thought about like I I think that there is a a buyer there for that and then when it comes to like the broader crypto space I think institutions are they're just trying to understand right and so there's a tremendous amount of education I think that a lot of these projects in crypto are going to have to frame themselves uh better um and you know avalanche included where I think we

need to communicate a value proposition that it's like that's more tangible. Um, and I think that I I think it's there like all of the work that's being done like it it is just better like you know when when you know we when we founded the company we took in you know a bunch of money some of it was in cash you know traditional fiat some was in stable coin and and some was in AEX in kind and I will tell you taking in that money really demonstrated like how antiquated fiat rails are and it was just like maddening of like how difficult it is to just move money around in the world unnecessarily. necessarily in a 24/7, you know, 7 day a week, you know, technology world that we live in. So, like if if if nothing else, this, you know, the the the the setting up of this

company like reaffirmed just at like the basic digital money phase, like how much better stable coins and and and broadly crypto is at moving value than than traditional fiat is. And so I think that that is an area to build on. And then all of these other like you know verticals that that I mentioned like people are working tirelessly to to implement that. I think you know we have to we have to do a little bit better at communicating that message and I think that in 2026 in a better regulatory environment a better macro environment.

you know, I think you'll have the ability to see differentiation between some of these different, you know, uh, assets and I think like, you know, the people that execute well, particularly in the face of broadening competition, I think, you know, will do really well and then, you know, the people that don't, you know, they will, you know, the capital markets is, you know, can can be pretty brutal sometimes. And if you don't execute, like there is there is a natural end. >> I I I was going to ask you for price predictions and and predictions for 2026, but I think you kind of just covered it right there. So, if there's anything you do want to add as far as predictions for 2026, go right ahead.

But other than that, Bart, this was a really great conversation. I really appreciate you coming on Milk Road Macro to share your thoughts on this with all of us. Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online? >> Go on Twitter. Uh, we're the Avalanche Treasury Company. Um, mo most of our updates are on there. I'm gartith and so you can follow me there as well. >> Bart, thanks so much for being here. I really enjoyed the conversation. I hope we can have you back again soon. >> Awesome. Thanks, John. >> Thank you, Bart. And thank you all for joining us. Uh, we hope you all learned something today. Um, I know I did. So, until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all on the next episode of Milk Road Macro. Thanks for being here, everyone.

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