Infura to decentralize soon, SSLE devnet and more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #654 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone and welcome to another episode of the delway refuel where C the latest news in the ethereum ecosystem I'm your host Anthony s and today's the 11th of September 2023 all right everyone let's get into it so first off today we have a bit of I guess regulatory related stuff to talk through so Bill Hughes here who is a lawyer at consensus uh and formerly actually worked at the Department of Justice and a bunch of other uh kind of places um like the White House and such uh put together a tweet today I mean today over the weekend that's quite long talking about how consensus submitted a letter in response to the July 11 letter from the Senate finance committee leaders requesting input to address the uncertain tax treatment of digital assets now of course this has been a big topic of discussion for people in the US

because we obviously want um crypto related tax things to be treated fairly and and basically on on par with how I guess like uh generally Investments are treated for tax purposes but also being mindful of the fact that crypto has various different intricacies to it when it it comes to tax like for example going from eth to wrapped eth shouldn't be considered a taxable event uh because of the fact that eth and wrapped eth are basically the same asset right that they for all intents and purposes they are the same asset the only reason why you go from eth to rap eth is so that you can use uh your eth within defi because rap eth is an erc20 token and it's just much easier to integrate with that than it is to integrate with naked eth uh and and same for things like you know staked

eth token stuff like that there's definitely nuances to crypto when it comes um to related things that need to be ironed out here but you can go give Bill's whole tweet a read I'll link it in the YouTube description below but the tldr is that he said here Congress needs to be careful not to impose a tax regime on digital assets that make blockchain ecosystems unusable for Americans there are many targeted improvements to the tax code that could bring Clarity and a sensible taxing policy to digital assets and to a large extent put them on par with other assets but this regime absolutely cannot make using and building blockchain protocols a practical impossibility for Americans and he Contin this technology is intended to be used not just a numberg go up investment scheme the tax laws should encourage the former rather than ensuring the latter

also while these issues are important the finance committee needs to closely watch the treasury and IRS rulemaking around broker dealer reporting requirements new legislation may be required to avoid potential catastrophic damage to us development and use of blockchain protocol so this is basically what I was saying before about how there's a lot of intricacies when it comes to different blockchain networks U digital assets crypto generally that isn't currently legislated on and there's not really any great guidance on a lot of it is a gray area right now especially these things around broker dealer reporting requirements and who is a money transmitter and who isn't uh you know who needs to report things to the tax authorities uh for example in some of the wording that I've seen on some of the proposed uh regulations which aren't uh kind of I guess like um a part of the

regulations yet they're just proposed uh would be that Unis swap Labs would have to uh basically uh uh uh kind of um get everyone's data somehow or everyone that uses the unisoft protocols data and basically pass that on to the treasury Department or something like that or the IRS it you know it's really just impossible reporting reporting requirements and Bill hughes's whole point here is basically that we need to avoid well the US needs to avoid falling into that and needs to actually put together sensible regulations and legislation around this but yeah as I said you can go give this a full read for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below all right we have the latest allc Court devs recap here from Christine Kim So Dev devet 9 so the EIP 4844 Denon devet 9 launch is expected on Tuesday

September 12th which of course is tomorrow the decision on the target Max blob count is pending more 4844 testing so that hasn't been decided on yet but that is a very uh simple thing to decide upon it is not going to really lead to any kind of delays or anything but yeah they obviously want to keep testing it and decision on dap lon's proposal to limit validator churn is also pending will be discussed on the next allore devs call so I did go over D lines um tweet from the other day about this new EIP that would uh propose sorry that would set a validator churn limit uh and that limit would be 12 validators per Epoch uh and that was obviously done because there was some some concerns around the validator set growing too quickly before it could be uh I guess addressed with other upgrades now I did

mention last week when I covered this that I don't think it's really urgent at this state and I really think that there's no need to put this churn limit in place but I guess we'll see on the next allcore devs call what they kind of decide on um based on community input cuz already seen a bunch of community members talking about this and it's going to be an interesting call that's for sure but yeah devnet 9 launching tomorrow big deal as I said I expect there to be you know probably devet 9 devet 10 and maybe 11 uh and obviously we have the hsky test net also launching this week on on the 15th which is uh day wise I think it's Friday yeah Friday Friday the 15th Friday the 15th uh would uh no that's Friday the 13th I'm getting mixed up there Friday the 15th uh one

year since the the merge right obviously it's going to be the merge anniversary but that's when the whole hsky test net is launching uh and then after that yeah it just remains to be seing what the timing is around getting denune onto these test Nets obviously sepo are um gley as well I don't know if gurle is being shut down I don't think it is being shut down straight away when hsky launches so I wonder if they're going to Fork that and then shut it down kind of like what they did with the um the uh what is it the robon test net back in the day I think they they forked that to like the merge and then ended up shutting it down or something like that if I'm remembering correctly there but yeah remains to be seen how that shakes out there but sure we'll get more

information on that on the next allore Dev call which is coming up soon here but you can go give this full recap a read uh I'll link it in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right Tim biker put together a little mini thread in response to essentially John here pointing out that on token terminals website uh they had listed that eth holders own and govern the ethereum protocol which obviously isn't true considering that ethereum doesn't have onchain governance and eth holders have no say over I guess uh what happened happens on the protocol in a direct way obviously as eth holders you are like a Community member you can participate in offchain governance and all that stuff there but Tim biker put together a little mini thread talking about how I guess ethereum governance works and how the ethereum protocol

rules are enforced so he says the rules of the ethereum protocol are enforced by nodes on the network these can be modified by Network upgrades which both validator and full nodes must explicitly opt in by updating their software um nodes will only connect to peers sharing their protocol rules in the case of competing Forks all stakeholders from users to applications and infrastructure must socially coordinate on which one to treat as Canon and then he goes on and gives a little bit of History here saying historically most Network upgrades have not been contentious and have happened smoothly in 2016 a contentious upgrade led to the creation of ethereum classic in 2022 ethereum's transition to proof of stake led to a short-lived minority proof of work Fork so yeah I mean he's basically going over what the kind of ethereum governance process is like as well as how ethereum

enforces protocol rules it's it's obviously very similar to bitcoin except Bitcoin doesn't really have hard Forks or upgrades or anything like that so ethereum is is is is very different in that way but in terms of the rules being enforced it's just enforced by nodes on the network and then if there needs to be a change such as a network upgrade the community comes together and agrees and has to opt in uh to uh to that upgrade or they can Fork off if they want like what happened with the Dow and what happened with um this kind of minority proof of work Fork but I think the circumstances around both of those Forks are very different right the D happened from an ideological sense where people disagree with the fact that the uh I guess like um the community agree or most of the community agreed to

reverse the Dow hack uh and basically well not technically revers because the chain wasn't rolled back but to basically return the funds to the Dow participants and take them away from the exploiter and then in 2022 the uh the minority proof of work Fork was literally just done for profit reasons there was no IDE ideology here uh or anything like that it was literally just done as a money grab so two very very different circumstances but both led to the same outcome of the forks themselves just dying off ethereum classic has obviously being Irrelevant for many years now and E pal as it was known is completely irrelevant I mean it was basically a month after it launched no one cares about it even from a money M money moneymaking perspective there uh but the reason why I bring this little

thread up is because it's a good reminder that ethereum does not have onchain governance I know there are certain people out there that try to push this narrative that because ethereum is p of stake it has on chain governance that is not at all as I said eth token holders or anyone that holds eth has absolutely no direct say over the changes that happen in the protocol and over the governance of the protocol because it's not like we do a kind of binding vote with e so so let's say you have a smart contract on chain or something that uh or basically it's built into the ethereum protocol that says okay well the majority of eth um vote one way then sorry if the majority of eth vote One Way well then that's the way we're going that's not how it works at all it relies on basically all

stakeholders whether they own eth or not to explicitly upgrade and it relies on the super majority of them in order for the network to continue on as it is now governance of course is is very messy even even with onchain governance ultimately it can always be forked right you could for example um there's a few chains out there that have onchain governance where essentially the the token holders vote and then that's binding in the end and then the network upgrades because of that but if people disagree with that and want to change that they ultimately could like let's just say for example one of these networks had the majority of the of the community of them say okay well we don't want onchain governance anymore we want to actually Fork that out they could they just have to Fork the chain and then if the majority agree with that

that would become the new chain and that chain wouldn't have onchain governance anymore so realistically ultimately it's still all offchain governance in the end right you can have onchain governance but uh uh but the ultimate form of governance is always offchain it's always the people that run the actual nodes that run the validators uh and all that stuff that surrounds that there so no no ethereum does not have any form of binding onchain governance any form of of coin holder governance at all you could always do like soft votes where you say there is actually a um a service for this I don't know if it's still live but it was traditionally used more in the in the past called coin vote where essentially as an eth holder you could go there and vote with your coins and it wouldn't be binding on anything it it's

literally just like a pole essentially it has the same power as a pole but you could make your voice heard like that but obviously the reason why that is not something desirable I mean there's many different reasons but the top reason is because we don't want the people with the most eth aka the most money dictating the direction of the protocol because then it just turns into a plutocracy and it really just goes against exactly what ethereum wants to be so yeah hopefully that's a nice little refresher for you guys on that one but I'll link Tim's tweet thread in the YouTube description below for you to check out all right so some exciting news uh about the single secret leader election or ssle uh feature upgrade that is planned for one of aum's uh hard Forks here so dap lion shared that there is a

stable Dev net running with the proof of concept of ssle on a fork of Lighthouse and G and gu so he says here this is an important milestone in ethereum's road map protecting proposes from targeted do or denal service attacks that could kill livess now I have talked about um a single secret leader election before it's basically the concept of being able to hide who the I guess like block proposers are going to be ahead of time because right now you know who 32 of the block proposers are going to be um ahead of time uh now the uh yeah the whole idea around it is to hide this so that you can prevent things like Doss attacks because for example if you knew ahead of time that coinbase was going to propose the next block right you could Doss

coinbase's validators and essentially send them offline which would obviously have a negative impact on the network but then the reason why you would do that is so that you can actually be uh the block proposer so for example if you if um at least this is how I believe it works if the block proposal is missed the next one will still go to the block proposer that was listed to begin with so let's say that coinbase is set set to propose block number 10 and your your validator is set to propose block number 11 and let's say that you are uh you you think you can gain some kind of like massive me opportunity from that block you essentially kill coinbase's opportunity to propose that block and you take it for yourself so it's more of the kind of like Edge case attack Vector

but it is definitely something that we want to address and that's what we're addressing with with ssle here and I believe ssle is actually a um a requirement or a prerequirement to getting PBS into the network so it's great to see that there's already a Dev net running here and there's actually a block explorer that you can go check out as well which I'll link in the YouTube description below but yeah I didn't expect to see a Dev net up this early for ssle because realistically I think ssle won't make it into the network till probably 2020 five maybe 2025 sounds sounds right to me I definitely don't think it's going to make it into the network next year but yeah 2025 um it just depends it's it's too hard to tell really but yeah I don't think it would happen next year but regardless the fact that we

already have Dev nets for these things is is really really great to see so you can go check this out for yourself we'll link it in the YouTube description below all right Hill Doby put out a really interesting tweet over the weekend where he said uh this uh ens or this ethereum address Jared from subway. E has now spent $ 37,000 eth or $70 million on gas which is the most of any address on ethereum now the reason why this is crazy is because you can see who the rest of the addresses are on this list so you have number one being Jared from Subway and then the rest of them are centralized exchanges which is what you expect right because obviously centralized exchanges are going to spend the most gas because they handle the uh the the user withdrawals right and they

obviously move a lot of stuff around on chain for them for themselves too but the reason why this is crazy is because for those of you who don't know Jared from Subway is an me bot right um that that that's why they've got the name Jared from Subway because it's referencing uh Subway sandwiches which is referencing sandwich attacks in the MAV context and there's a little bit of a meme going on there but this account has spent of all of all gas ever spent on the network if I'm reading this correctly uh 0.46% 0.46% one address it probably isn't one person it's probably a team but they have spent $70 million on gas and the reason why have they have done that is because they want to extract me and and the me profits were more than the $70 million they extracted and I

think hobby is actually working on a dashboard or working on a way to get the data to see how much profit that this Jared from Subway account made from all from spending all of these gas so I'll keep an eye out for that for you guys uh and then he also has another tweet here saying that over the past 6 months uh Jared from Subway spent 5% of all gas in in the last 6 months which is so much more than the next address I mean the next address is 2% it's not labeled here so he spent 3% more than the next highest address and you can see his transaction count as well is just absolutely mindboggling it's 1.2 million here for the last 6 months but if you look at his transaction count in the context of against like the other um high gas Spenders like centralized

exchanges he has 1.2 million but then the exchanges obviously have a lot more right like binance has 7.7 million on one of their addresses and they have uh on the other addresses they have 7.6 million but you expect that because they handle a lot of deposits and withdrawals every single day and they've been around for quite a while now so for he for jar from Subway to have uh 1.2 million transactions in I think this is like the last 6 months to be honest uh is absolutely insane right especially because those transactions I believe pretty much all of them or the vast majority of them would be related to extracting me and this again is why we are working to eliminate as much of me as possible because um is very toxic all the money that the that well most of the

money that Jared would have made especially if he's doing sandwich attacks is from basically wrecking people uh and and and I wouldn't call it theft but really just wrecking people who don't know any better to protect themselves from things like this but yeah just a cool interesting startat that I figured was worth highlighting for you guys all right so I speaking of PBS before I came across this little uh basic an animation from dear who shows you what it actually looks like so what the I guess life of U proposed Builder separation looks like in this gift here so you can't really see it on my screen cuz it's a bit small but you can see on the left hand side a ERS uh and then they pass um blocks to uh sorry transactions to builders who then build the blocks and those Builders will pass

it to a relayer which will then pass it to a validator so the Searchers here and the builders a lot of the time they can go hand inand right where they're the same entity uh and then the Builder passing it to validators so the validators entities like obviously uh Rocka pool and and Lio and coinbase and individual validators uh uh uh sorry not validators relays first so the relay I've talked about before like Ultra just s money and Flash Bots and all and all those other relays there and then those relays will then pass that onto the validators ultimately and then the validators will propose the block so this is the life cycle of a block really it goes from Searcher to Builder uh to relay to validator now the whole point of impr protocol PBS or epbs is to eliminate the um the relayer role

basically and to have it so that there's just like search a builder to validator because uh the relay role is a centralizing vector as we've seen and it leads to censorship as we've seen as well and the whole kind of notion around it on top of that is that um Builders are going to always be centralized because it's a specialized role but that's okay because as long as the validators are decentralized that's all that matters at the end of the day that's all that matters for censorship resistance for security for um for for for for liveness and all that stuff so it's okay for the builders to be centralized obviously we would like there to be as many Builders as possible but generally uh you know the future is probably just a handful of PE of of builders building blocks but we might get to a point like far into the future

where we even like remove that as well and and I I think Justin Drake has talked a lot about this in the past where he talks about the the uh the Sci-Fi road map of ethereum and I think that this is something that bankless did a podcast on recently uh but essentially it's these things that are like 10 15 20 years out that could lead to a dramatically improved ethereum protocol and could make it so um decentralized sens resistant and Unstoppable uh that you wouldn't have really any centralization vectors it would just be maximally decentralized now of course there's still a lot of open questions around that as I said it is potentially decades away so while we wait for that to happen or if it even materializes if it even ever materializes we we work on these other upgrades in in in kind of like

conjunction here so yeah anyway you can go check out this gift for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below all right so we have some news out of the block so consensus owned infura so you guys know what infura is and you you should know that consensus owns a by now uh but they have announced plans to start decentralizing by the end of 2023 so I did mention when this news first came out that infura uh like a little while ago that infer was planning to decentralize well they're planning to do it by or to start doing it by the end of 2023 now what does this mean like does it mean there's a token coming is is it going to look like a dow well they have said that that it it's going to look like a dow and they they're moving

towards a dow model which in my mind kind of means that there's going to be a token I don't know what that's going to look like I don't know what the distribution is going to be or anything like that but I am pleased to see that infu is decentralizing because it has been one of those centralization vectors that people have rightly pointed to in the past where essentially if you're a metamask user and you haven't changed your default RPC on the ethereum um main net on layer one you are using infura because metamask is also a consensus own product they obviously want people using um you know all of their own products and the reason why it is uh I guess kind of a concern to use uh any centralized RPC not just in fur is because they have control over what over your access to

the network so essentially they can't um they can't do anything they can't they can't steal your funds or anything but what they can do is censor you so for example if you send the transaction via infura and uh to to tornado cash and infura wanted to start enforcing censorship on that your transaction wouldn't go through because you're using infurious infrastructure using their full node essentially to relay your transaction to the network uh you can easily get around this by running your own full node or just switching to a different RPC it's not a hard thing to do but I guess like the whole point is that we want to make sure that we can decentralize this infrastructure as well so that we can have every part of the stack uh decentralized so I'm really glad to see that infura is going to start this journey by the end of 2023

but I mean to me it screams that are tokens coming but as I said I don't know what that looks like um and I I do wonder how they're going to do distributions on that like if there's going to be an air drop anything like that but something to keep an eye on for all of you Keen airdrop Farmers out there all right so espresso systems have shared uh um their work integrating the op stack so they said here op stack developers can start leveraging the decentralization speed and scale of the espresso sheded sequencer Network this integration is part of their latest test net release called cardor so I think I've covered cardor before on the refuel but this is I believe the third test net that they've released here which enables the op stack developers to access this shared sequencer Network so you can go

check this out for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below but I'm curious to see how these shared sequencer networks actually uh going to kind of like is it going to be something that a lot of the rollups opt into a lot of the l2s opt into or are they going to go down their own Road of using their own sequencer networks or their own kind of like sequencer infrastructure I'm sure we're going to see both ShakeOut but it's going to be really interesting to see which one wins in the end like in the end being like 5 10 years from now right because at the end of the day like sequencer decentralization isn't like a huge deal um and it is kind of like one of those things where it's a I wouldn't say it's a nice to have it's definitely a musthave but it's like not the top of

the list of must haves um that's for sure because you want it for liveness you want it for things like Fair me Distribution on l2s uh and you want a percentage resistance but in terms of decentralization you don't strictly need it because l2s uh specifically rollups are a oneof end trust assumption where you only ever need one sequencer to be uh trustworthy to process your transaction um in order for it to go through so even if like there were 100 sequences and 99 of them were censoring you you only need one um and and that one can just process the transaction and then it gets batched and put on to L1 and that's fine you don't need the majority of the network uh like 66% of it say or 51% of it in order for your transaction to uh to go through anything like that so it's it's a kind of oneof

end trust assumption there um but but but and for liveness as well you don't need that like say 99 of the sequences went offline and only one was online that' still be fine you might see some degraded performance because maybe that sequence is running on crappy infrastructure and it takes takes him longer to process things but generally that's why we say it's a one of n kind of a trust assumption here and one of n for liveness and things like that but yeah I'm I'm curious to see what that actually ends up looking like are we going to get a shared sequencer Network being the dominant thing or is it going to be like single sequences per chain or are people going to roll their own sequences uh it it depends we'll have to see we we we'll want to that as time goes on but I don't think we're going to

have our answer there for at least 5 years on that front uh anyway all right so onto some Market talk because I know the market has been extra shitty lately which to should not be a surprise to any of you by the way because I have been saying for months now that I expected the remainder of this year to just be sideways down only stuck in that kind of range not maybe not down only but like stuck in that range that we've been stuck in for quite a while now and the range being like 1 to 2K you know 1500 to 2K that that kind of that kind of range there so I've said that for a while so it shouldn't surprise you but I think what I want to talk about is something that I kind of came across recently and discovered Rec recently which further reinforces the

4-year cycle thesis and I'm going to look at the chart in a sec to show you what I mean here but I put out a tweet uh uh uh yesterday where I said the next few months will be where most people get shaken out these brave souls sacrifice themselves to start a new B so so that a new bull market can finally begin and I truly believe this I think that the as i' as I've been saying for months now the next few months just going to keep shaking people out they're going to panic sell they're going to try and trade it they're going to try and catch the bottom they're like H I'm not going to buy I'm going to buy when the bottom comes in and then the problem is is that like nine out of 10 people are not going to do any of that right and they're

going to wreck themselves and then they're going they're going to become fuel for the next bull market where essentially what happens is that eventually all those pumps that we see get sold down we have seen got got sold down all of this year they stop getting sold down and now the pumps actually continue and they keep going up and then we start climbing that wall of warrior that I've discussed before and then those people who missed buying lower and are waiting for lower to buy again start F fing in in a real way and then that becomes like that fuel for the for the bull market so that's definitely going to happen in my mind at some point but this brings me to my kind of fouryear cycle thing that I've been talking to you guys about so I've got the BTC chart up here so this is the BLX which is a uh

an index that the brave new coin team have created that basically looks at um the weekly closes of BTC going back to pretty much the start of BTC this chart goes all the way back to uh I believe what what what date is this it's like 2010 or something like that uh yeah so it's July 2010 so it goes back to when BTC was like 5 cents right but what I want to focus on is the previous two cycles and compare it to this current cycle so you look at my you'll see on my chart here actually if I bring it up here so my camera is not not kind of blocking it we look at the 2013 uh to I guess like 20 17 or I guess like we look from 2013 to to 2017 here uh when it comes to measuring from top to top now

what I'm measuring here is the 2013 alltime high or the time between the 2013 all-time high and when we broke that all-time high in 2017 this is on BTC that took 1,127 days right that is not 4 years but that's that's how long it took and we'll get back to that in a sec then I measured bottom to bottom so I measured the bottom from January 2015 uh when when BTC bottomed uh in January 2015 to when BTC bottomed uh in December of 2018 so from cycle to cycle here that was 1, 428 days which roughly translate to 3.91 years which basically rounds up to 4 years I mean that's pretty much four years there so that's the fouryear cycle

that's what we mean when we say that there is a fouryear cycle in crypto it's measured from bottom to bottom it is not measured from alltime high to Breaking the alltime high so from previous alltime High to Breaking the new alltime high right it is from bottom to bottom now the really curious thing about this is that I measured it again from the December 2018 bottom to the November 2222 bottom on BTC and the days worked out to pretty much exactly the same I don't know if I've measured it correctly here I think that that I I I I think I have measured it correctly but essentially the days round out to 1,428 days which again is four years okay we now have two data points saying that there's been a 4year cycle both times

right from bottom to bottom and then I've gone and extrapolated that out on the current cycle and as you can see here if the fouryear cycle holds October 2026 will be the next bottom and then the when I'm measuring the from previous all-time high to to Breaking the previous all-time high it again is very similar 1,127 days for the first cycle here that I'm measuring the second cycle 1,092 days and then I've kind of extrapolated extrapolated that out and said okay well 1,092 days into the future gets us to November uh 2024 as the as breaking the previous all-time high on BTC which again falls into what I've been saying about the second half or late second half of 2024 being when we probably see the uh new all-time

highs on on BTC now I actually went further back and I haven't got it I haven't got it on the chart here but this bottom to bottom fouryear cycle actually exists from day one of Bitcoin and day one I mean January uh uh of of 2009 so if I measure it here if I go from this bottom which was the bottom in November 2011 and I measure this to this bottom of January 2015 it is 1,148 days right so that is very similar to, 1428 uh it's it's what like 300 days difference or something like that but the thing is is that the the Cycles are very different here because I mean 2011 there was barely anywhere to trade BTC

but still the the for the the the near fouryear cycle kind of holds here it goes to what like 3 years or something like that so so 3 years but the the thing is you can take it from from basically uh from basically here as well and go go here and then it keeps going up right so 3 to four years there so the first one was was three years I mean it's kind of hard to to to to kind of like know here because these Cycles were weren't really I guess like uh relevant to to um to bitcoin at the time right so that if you look at it like that from that perspective you can say okay well the fouryear cycle hadn't formed yet but it was still kind of uh getting there right it was still like 3 years which is still still kind of longterm

then you you can take it from like uh I can't do it on the chart but you can go from like January 3rd 2009 which is on bit when Bitcoin first launched and go to the first uh the first bottom here which would be November 2011 and you can extrapolate that out and from memory it it rounded up to like I think very similar to what this bottom to this bottom rounded up to like 1100 days so the first two cycles were extremely similar and then the next uh two cycles were similar but stretched out by about you know you know 300 days because that's when the fouryear cycle meme really started right but the whole point of me showing you guys this is not to say that it's guaranteed that the fouryear cycle is going to play out again it's just to show you just how

uncanny it is that it has played out so many times so far and um it has played out in in in in uh in very similar circumstances and also to show you that btc's return profile has actually come down over time and that's only natural for an asset as it grows in market cap for it to come down over time and the reason why I'm focusing on BTC here is because ether does not have enough data to to to look at I mean eth launched uh for trading in July 2015 which was pretty much like you know uh what it would have been July 2015 would have been around around here oh wait sorry I'm going back here which is like the middle of the crab market right it wasn't even the it was I mean August 2015 BTC almost set a new low right so

uh a new low for that cycle so it was kind of it's kind of irrelevant to look at e because you don't have enough data that's why I'm looking at BTC but it still follows those fouryear Cycles because the whole Market still follows BTC right so when you look at it from that you take a holistic approach CH uh and you and you extrapolated it out as I said you would expect the new all-time high to be November 2024 or round about that and then the the new low uh to be October 2026 that's the fouryear cycle there now if this doesn't play out uh that kind of breaks a lot of precedent of course but I personally betting that it just plays out again I haven't seen anything that happens this cycle that's different to last cycle we had BTC and eth go up to new alltime highs they came

down they came down uh you know 85% I think uh at their bottoms actually uh eth went down more than BTC but BTC went down it didn't even go down 80% BTC from top to bottom went down around 77% right so diminished to what it went down last time I think it went down last last CLE like 85% or something like that but everything else went down 90 plus% right and this year we saw a kind of a I guess people were calling it an echo bubble where we kind of Pumped up off the bottom um by about two times on BTC and eth and then since the top there we've just been bleeding out the same happened in 2019 here where you can see that in 2019 BTC went up a lot it went up a lot more than 2x went up like 3x but I've

explained before how like the plus token Ponzi influenced that and then it went down and bled out and then started pumping again in 2020 uh the and looking at the 2015 cycle is a bit different because uh it actually didn't really pump during the first half of 2015 then it bottomed in August 2015 and actually pumped after that and didn't stop until the top of uh of uh December 2017 here so you know the the Cycles don't exactly repeat but they do rhyme and all I'm interested in is looking at the general Trends the general trends of the crab market and as I said before the crab market only finishes when the crab market range is broken and even back in 2015 uh crab market or I guess like the last uh the the that that cycle crab market the crab wasn't broken until May

2016 right you can see here that that's when BTC went above F I guess like 500 4 500 which is like the when its crab range and didn't come back and then you can see the same thing happened uh in 2019 where it broke out of its crab range but as I said before that's like the plus token thing but it didn't actually um properly break out of it and continue on from from that kind of crab range until like August 2020 or something like that July 2020 so if we extrapolate that out again we can say that okay well Q2 next year is when the crab will break or Q3 next year is is when the crab will break so you can do the as extrapolations but as uh what someone I used to say I used to watch A

lot has said a lot of times this is just dubious speculation this is just me kind of trying to I guess uh illustrate to you why I still believe in like the four-year cycle why I'm I'm still a long-term investor why I still think that we're on track here and why these day-to-day movements that we've been seeing lately especially to the downside are largely irrelevant because if you look at what we started the beginning of the year at with uh sorry what what what um e started the what BTC started the beginning of 2020 at to what it ended 2020 at at the beginning of 2020 uh betc started at 7.1k by the end of 2020 BTC was at 25 no sorry 35k by the end of 2020 right so when you look at it like that things

can move very very quickly I believe eth was like3 at the beginning of 2020 and went to like 9900 or 800 by the end of it so really when things get going they really get going things can change very very quickly in a short period of time so just because and and that was after a brutal crab Year by the way right that was after 2019 crab year um and and and that being like very very brutal especially for eth uh and then it just move and that was also after the whole Co dump too so when you take that holistic approach take that long-term approach you going extrapolate this stuff out and see uh all the different points on on on the time here but anyway I'm going to end that there cuz I talked about the markets way longer than I intended to but uh yeah so thank you

everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give it video a thumbs up subscribe to the newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone