Immutable X is coming, ETH price action and more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #82 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone and welcome to another episode of the daily gray refuel where i recap the latest news in the ethereum ecosystem i'm your host anthony cesano and today is the 22nd of march 2021. all right everyone let's get into the news from the weekend and actually before we do that i'm going to remind you all that it's only a few days left actually i think maybe three or four days left uh to donate on get coin grants as part of this matching round so if you haven't done so already be sure to go on here and donate to all of your favorite projects uh there's still there's obviously plenty to choose from obviously you know the daily gray is included in that and i big thank you to everyone that has kind of donated so far to uh to the daily way um i really

appreciate it it's really great um but definitely don't forget to donate to all the other projects on here as well uh but i'll leave it at that it'll be linked in the description of course you can go check it out um be sure to get it done you know i only got you know three or four days left i think so don't don't dawdle uh do it as soon as you can all right so you i don't talk about price too much on the refill at least i try to avoid talking about price too much but i've been getting so many comments and questions lately about kind of like where ethie's headed and what ethie's doing that i feel like i need to address this uh and i won't spend too long too long on this but i did want to talk about it so basically

people are complaining right now and i see a lot of this on twitter and elsewhere that ethio's like a stable coin right it hasn't really moved it's been going sideways since i guess the 9th of march which is which isn't very long right it's like 13 days um or maybe actually like you could say like the eighth here on the chart um you know about 14 days but then if you if you really go back and go to like the 12th of feb you know where where it was back then it was at about 1800 and today it's at about eight hundred dollars uh right at least that time of recording so yeah basically i guess you know five or almost six weeks now of kind of like this sideways movement where we had like a but you know we we did have that crash

down to like a below 1300 after all-time high but then we've gone back up and i kind of wanted to zoom out here i always tell people you got to zoom out when you're looking at these things and you know things going sideways is actually completely normal in in a bull market you know a lot of the time a lot of the action happens in a very short period of time and then it might feel like it's going sideways because after it goes up a lot it obviously comes down a bit after that and you have to kind of deal with that and consolidate and then move back up so this is the daily chart since black thursday right on the left here since march um you know we had obviously had that massive dump and then we've been going up ever since then now you'll see

and you'll notice that like there's multiple periods and as i said this is the daily chart but there's multiple long periods of time where each price basically goes kind of like sideways right before heading back up again so you know we could start down here and say that you know heath went sideways for like i mean i can use the tool to measure it here so you know it went sideways for like uh 11 days there right then if you measure it from here it went sideways for a good 28 days and then from here went sideways for 53 days right which is longer than what we've been doing now and this is actually sideways right you can see there wasn't any like massive pump or dump between here it was like actually sideways for a long time and then you know ethic exploded up so

we went sideways around 240 dollars all the way to here over almost two months and then eighth went from like 240 to what was it like 480 in like 42 days right so in a very short period of time there and then obviously it came back down and we had like a bit of like upwards sideways movement and then continued up but if you count this whole range here as like a sideways movement right all the way to here 95 days or three months over three months or about three months i guess of kind of like movement where we did go out but we came back down and then we kind of like took about three months before we started heading back up again now you know if we compare this to to what's happening right now

like what happened back here you know it looks similar right where we had like this massive kind of run up and then we had like this kind of crash back down and then we we've kind of recovered a little bit and we're going sideways again so this can go sideways i mean right now it's been as i said like from if we take it from like here and we go all the way here it's been about 37 days so this could go on for another one or two months and we'd still be fine right we'd still be bullish it wouldn't be bearish at all and we could still go up from that you know if you'll remember back in 2017 actually you know we can go all the way back to 2017 here and like eight did very similar things then as well and i remember eighth being

like at stuck at 300 bucks for quite a while i mean here you can basically see that uh if you count basically you know august to to right over here before i started moving back up it's the same kind of deal as i just showed you three months right of movement before if you know went up a lot over the the next two months from about three hundred dollars to what is it here like 14 20 the last all-time high sort of thing so this is not unprecedented it happens a lot you know during bears and bull markets especially during bear markets right the bear market is just basically like one big sideways movement i mean if we look at the whole bear market here and and kind of like measure it you know as like all of this being sideways right from like you know basically i guess you

could say from here to here you know all of that took like 716 days right that's uh that's that's a long time right it's almost two years like between underneath this kind of like price range here where we peaked and came back down uh before it went went back up again so uh yeah i mean we don't obviously don't want that i don't think that's gonna happen i do think that the price is generally just consolidating around here uh obviously still very bullish i mean there's nothing kind of bearish i think right now the macro environment doesn't look too bad you know people are getting back into into work into the economy right vaccines are rolling out for cover and all that stuff and you know that's the macro kind of real world picture but in terms of like what's coming for ethereum

i mean we have so much bullish things coming for ethereum like layer 2 is is is going live you know it's rolling out there's tons of solutions imminently i'm coming to main net yeah p1559 in july right um you know eth2 rollout is continuing the first hard fork happening mid-year the merger is being sped up i think at this point for the eighth month eth2 merger continued growth of d5 of nfts i mean you know we've been through this a lot on the refuel tons of times not only for me to rehash the whole thing here and obviously this is an investment advice but basically i just don't see any real reasons to be bearish right now it's actually you know typically when you when you kind of range like this and go sideways and consolidate around a certain price level it's actually quite bullish because it

means that you know sellers are pretty much exhausted there's no one like itching to sell right um but at the same time there's no one like itching to buy right so essentially you're waiting for like a some some influx of new demand for whatever reason to come in uh whether that be new buyers or existing kind of traders just waiting because trading this market is actually very very difficult and very stressful because it's just sideways it's just choppy right there's no clear trend here so traders always look for a clear trend and you can't see it here you know you may have you may know that it's going to go up at one point in the future but if you're a trader you know attempting to trade this whole there's not much here for you to trade right the price moves up from you know 17 i guess like it bottoms at

like 17 20 ish moves up to like 19 20 ish and then hangs around in that range you know trying to trade that is just not not very fun so yeah for those who you know uh are feeling impatient or i guess like feeling like you know it hasn't done much in the last you know six weeks and you bought between that period i mean you know there's a lot of us who sat through the entire bear market and we can tell you we feel your pain but like six weeks is nothing um you know this could go on for another two months like you just got to be prepared for that and you know the worst thing is is that i see a lot of people just capitulate and be like okay well i'm just going to sell and go and do something else and then you know if eth

likes to do this thing where it punishes those people and just starts running up and then people throw in you know this is why i always say that longer term investing is the best approach like yeah investing like have a five plus year outlook on this sort of stuff don't invest in the short term unless you're a trader i mean even then you know it's it there's higher risk there but yeah again not investment advice just general kind of advice with these markets that a long term outlook is is much better than the short term outlook and speaking of that i i put out like this funny little indicator here about how during every bitcoin grants mattering round and we're right we're in run right now uh since uh black thursday or the crypto black thursday in march the market has gone sideways for eighth

and then shortly after it started moving up i don't know if this is going to hold again you know it's just a silly little indicator that i saw and like it kind of mapped to what i was thinking which is pretty funny but if this plays out again it'll be even funnier because there's i mean there's only five data points here it's not like it's a you know a lot of different a lot of different data points but it'd still be funny to see it kind of validated and we'll see how that plays out basically so layer 2 is heating up more than ever i know i talk about it all the time and i'm going to keep talking about it but basically just before starkware posted this little teaser here saying that they minted 600 000 nfts on their layer 2 with a single stark

proof uh so mincing an nft costs less than 10 gas uh much less than a penny and immutable x alpha will be on main net imminently uh which is using starquest technology so i've spoken about immutablex before it's the kind of decentralized exchange uh on layer two for nfts um and that's yeah releasing any day now i think uh from what i've heard um but yeah so i want to put this in kind of like context here and eli did a good job actually here mincing in nf3 t directly on ethereum's layer one is like a minimum forty dollars right it's it's definitely more than that a lot of the time and minting a nft on starkx is zero point three cents right it's not even a cent to do it which is thirteen thousand three hundred and thirty 333 times

cheaper than ethereum main net which is a huge improvement right absolutely massive improvement and to put this in even further context you know the cheapest thing you can do on ethereum is sending an eth transaction and right now that still costs four dollars because it costs 21 000 gas um so the fact that each of these nft mints only costs 10 gas right is is incredible i mean this is the power of of stock technology this is the power of the layer to scaling technology um harnessing this for roll-ups this is just absolutely incredible i mean you know i think people need context and i'm glad eli put this out because you know a lot of people don't don't know how the gas market works through and for those of you who want a quick

refresher here there's two parts to the gas um a gas market or at least the free market on ethereum there's the gas limit or the um all the the gas u usage so you know an ethereum transaction for example uses 21 000 gas um and then the gas limit that you set basically says um okay well i'm not going to spend more than you know 21 000 gas on this transaction because that's how much it's going to cost for an eighth transaction to go through and there's different gas limits depending on what you're doing but basically that's that's a cost and then it's like multiplied by the the guy price that you use and that's how you get the transaction fee at the end of the day um so that's a quick refresher there so no uh transactions cost uh this much gas on on mainnet like

uh uh and as i said ethereum transaction is the cheapest thing you can do um so basically what what uh i guess these rollups do is they literally roll up the transactions into this stock proof and then they put this stock proof on mainnet and within that stock proof is the 600 000 nft minting transactions and in aggregate they cost 10 gas which is absolutely incredible i mean this is coming very soon this is not like theoretical this is not test net sort of stuff this is mainnet stuff and and this is uh this is um going to be coming and you'll be able to do things like trading your gods unchained cards because immutable builds god's unchained and there's a bunch of other nft projects building on immutable as well this is going to absolutely change the game people still don't know what's

coming and on that note actually um godzilla and chain announced today that there you could actually link your uh wallet if you've got gods unchained cards to uh to immutable x now which means that they're basically i mean i'm expecting them to go live any day at this point right like it could even happen this week i mean i don't know but i mean the way they're kind of acting right now and the fact that starkware put out this announcement too kind of signals to me that their imminent you know mainland launch which is which is pretty pretty pretty exciting right now because at the end of the day i can tell you guys how awesome layer 2 is and how awesome you know stock proofs are and optimistic roll-ups and zika ops and all that sort of stuff but you know unless you use it yourself

uh you're probably not going to believe me or you're probably going to be like okay well when is it going to be on maintenance i want to use it now it's no good to me you're just talking about it i want to save money on fees now it's coming it's coming it's coming that's all i can say it's it's not very far away now and your patience will definitely pay off i think so nick chong from parify put out a really great ethereum ecosystem map here and i mean this doesn't cover every project in ethereum obviously and my head is blocking off like the nft section in the bottom left here but you kind of get the idea right there are so many different kind of projects uh working within the ethereum ecosystem right now obviously d5 dominates the the entire system right um you know

there's a lot of data analytics platforms as well now you know active investors in this space right i mean a lot of these investors do invest in other areas but they have a heavy focus on on d5 infrastructure you know scaling obviously there's a ton of scaling solutions out now which is really really exciting and nfts in the bottom left you can't see it here but you can see it on the picture if i don't zoom in there's a ton of nft projects spinning up now and as i said this doesn't cover everything i would say that there's like thousands of of projects building on ethereum right now some really big some really small but it doesn't matter there's there's just so many projects building in i i found it funny because nick actually put this together as a reply to the cardeno ecosystem map that

charles hodgkins can put together and as you guys know carter doesn't have smart contracts so it doesn't have any of this kind of stuff a lot of what they had and i don't know if it's if it's here i don't have it up of the ecosystem map that they had but a lot of what they had was just like quote-unquote partnerships right and we've all seen like what happens when people you know drum up partnerships a lot of the time they're nothing burgers it doesn't really matter you know show us the main implementation show us the app show us the users and then we'll care so i think this is a really great way to show us that right like look at all the apps right all of these apps have a lot of users especially the ones at the top because they're the biggest ones

um and and yeah i just think it's really really cool uh to see these kind of ecosystem maps and to i guess you know remind ourselves about how big this ecosystem is and how much it's growing and you know not everyone can keep track of it anymore i can't even keep track of all of it anymore which is you know even more exciting so yeah really great map from nick here so i'm putting out this tweet because i think and full disclosure here i'm an investor and advisor and m stable but i think people are kind of sleeping on what's come what's happening with with m stable right now um so basically there's a bunch of upgrades going uh live over the next few weeks uh they're all public this is not like me having any you know inside information or anything like that this

is all very public m stable makes a point to make sure that everything that we do as like a as like a protocol is is made public so you know the major features are a buy back and make for the mta token and some of you may be familiar with this but for those who aren't the way this works is that instead of a buyback and burn like what you see i guess like make a do where they use system revenue to buy back mkr and burn it it uses the system revenue um well msable will use the system revenue to buy back mta tokens from the market and then put them in liquidity pools to market make so essentially you have guaranteed liquidity from the the m stable treasury for the mta pair uh there's also going to be an upgraded amm going live for musd which

is uh detailed here in this post you can read it in the in the description below uh basically this this newly upgraded bonding curve is is more flexible than the existing kind of curve that we've got going on um and it guarantees a minimum amount of liquidity with with max kind of like uh max weights for different stable coins in the basket which which is really cool uh greatly improved tokenomics for mta coming of course uh there's going to be new liquidity mining programs that better align incentives with vesting and all that sort of good stuff and feeder pools that are going to greatly uh boost um m stable asset growth so that's another thing to look forward to so yeah if you've been sleeping on m stable i definitely go check i recommend checking it out these guys are just really heads down building like i would know

because i talk to them a lot um and you know i i i think that the features that they're coming out with is really really positive so if you've got some stable coins and you're looking for some yield definitely go go check out m stable here and of course i'm biased because i work closely with them but i wouldn't be kind of telling you guys about this if i didn't think it was it was worth your time to check it out so spencer noon uh and uh zach uh yeah zack chow here put together a uh basically a table on on uh google sheets or sorry uh yeah google not google sheets sorry google docs uh basically comparing all the different nft platforms and how you can get started on all of them what their kind of fees are like what the royalties are like um and

and who pays the gas fees and stuff like that so yeah if you're someone who is interested in creating an nft or just like comparing the different platforms definitely go check out this this table it'll be linked in the youtube description of course and i found it interesting that pretty much all of the uh i guess like projects except uh make his place in nifty gateway uh get the user to pay the gas fees so um you know nifty gateway has no gas fee at all uh maker's place will cover all the gas fees by the platform until further notice but they will take i think our fees on the primary sales of course so so does everyone else but like you know they pretty much all take primary sales fees some of them take secondaries some of them take royalties i think as

well if you mint through them um and then yeah i mean they've all got a bunch of different ways of going about it some of them are geared towards different things like i think nifty gateway is very popular for their open editions super rare is very popular for art foundation i think is more art focused as well open seas is generalized zora is is definitely art based uh maker's place is is more about limited edition kind of uh and like very highly curated and wearable is also more of a general marketplace so they all serve their own purpose i don't know how many long-term winners there's going to be in this you know this is still very early days i don't know which of these are going to be the long-term winners at this point i think the generalized marketplaces are really good but i also think that the

the highly curated stuff actually has its purpose and and you know this is just like highly created art museums in real life and art shows like so like they weren't bust or anything like that right they're still very very profitable so yeah it'd be interesting to see how the nft marketplace ecosystem evolves over the next uh i guess few years so dc investor put out an interesting tweak here where he basically says you know nothing to see here it's just ether on its way to becoming the most important programmable reserve asset of all time it's going to be what uh fun watching everyone else for more into this narrative in the coming years claiming they understood it early just remember who told you first i i really i find a funny dc's approach yeah he's always uh i wouldn't call it passive aggressive

but he's always like guys like is such an amazing asset like if you're sleeping on her if you're bearish on it then you know you're wrong essentially which i always find funny but he he links an image here to back up his claim where eth being locked in d5 is trending on up right it's at 9.3 million eighth right now locked in d5 and it's basically up from seven million dollars in january and you'll remember it actually came down a lot after the uni liquidity mining uh incentives ended but then a lot of that went into eth2 so 82 is like 3.6 million each kind of in there right now so if you count you know 9.3 million in d5 3.6 million in in in in e2 sorry uh you can get to like 12.9 million or something like that if i'm doing doing

my math right there um of uh of basically across d5 and uh and uh and eth2 which is a huge percentage i think that is about 10 percent of the the total each supply in a you know locked in d5 or locked in e2 which means that that is being a productive asset he's doing something a lot of the eighth in d5 is of course on maker which is acting as collateral for die um a lot of it is in unisop in sushi swap which is acting as a trading pair for a lot of the other tokens um and things like that and in eth2 of course it's acting as a security bond essentially for the different validators so yeah and this number just keeps going up i mean it's going up on eth2 as well it's going up on in d5 you know people are hungry for eth and

and can't get enough of it so this is really really amazing i mean you know i mean obviously like i've been going on a lot about how i think you know ethers and asset has so many different use cases it's impossible not to be bullish on it couple that with the fact that it's you know a big use case for ethers its uses to pay fees and in in in july when the ip1559 goes live you know a lot of that fee revenue is going to be burned as well putting deflationary pressure on each i mean there's so many catalysts for for eth as an asset right now it's very hard not to not to be bullish as i explained earlier and this sideways movement i mean we're gonna i think there's gonna come a day sooner rather than later where you know ethel go from where it is now 1800 to much

higher and people are going to regret it they're going to be like oh my god i could have bought it 800 and now it's at this price wow what was i doing and i think you know people love following momentum and that's why you know when you see the momentum in either direction that's kind of why you see the price i guess going down or up based on the momentum is that a lot of people don't want to be follow don't want to be leaders right they want to be followers where they want the momentum to be there to confirm that they can actually jump into this position and buy before they buy but to me that's just not a really great way of going about things unless you're a trader and doing short-term kind of swings if you're a long-term investor i mean accumulating when it wherever you can

is is is great i mean obviously depending on like how frothy the market is you may like take a pause and say okay maybe i shouldn't be accumulating more here because the market's like extremely frothy you know i'm expecting a kind of dump it's always hard to tell like don't get me wrong but in general you know accumulating eighth during 2018 2019 during a bear market was the best time uh second best time was during 2020 maybe the third best time is now i don't know i mean as i've said before a lot of times on the refuel i buy eighth regardless of the price i don't care i really don't care um what what the price is i mean i remember buying eighth at the end of 2018 at like 220 dollars thinking it was the uh the bottom of the bear market was like october or

something and then eighth proceeded to dump to 80 bucks in december then we had 2019 which was like you know a bunch of fake breakouts and then we ended at like 120 and then 20 and then in 2020 we went up right uh went we went past 220 but then we went back down because of the covert dump and then we finally went back up above 220 in like july of 2020. so i held on to that position right um for for a very long time and and i honestly i didn't really feel phased by it because i knew that 8th was going to go up one day i believed in what like was going on with the ethereum ecosystem and there's a lot of people like me as well who kind of bought down there too so yeah long-term investment investing is always kind of my jam

and this is exactly why because i eat is continuing to basically play out the thesis that i've had for it for years now and that's a big part of that thesis is it's usability and it's it's usability within d5 obviously within staking and so many other things so yeah definitely keeping an eye on this so i went on so speaking of being bullish on heath i actually went on bankless with david hoffman uh over the weekend and we basically had a live stream where we just talked a lot about i guess ethan his ultrasound money meme that he's been popularizing that was originally coined by justin drake uh so if you want to learn more about that and i guess a bit of layer two stuff towards the end of that video go check it out but we're actually going to be doing it

once a week uh as like a daily gray bankless live stream um you know i think for a lot of the world or at least for the us it's it's evening time friday for for me it's like morning on saturday um so that's going to be happening every week uh from now on and we don't really have any genders with this video we're just going to be talking about whatever comes to mind whatever's hot for the for the week i i guess and talking for about an hour you know we might end up taking questions from the audience as well if you're watching you know on youtube or whatever but if you want to watch a recap of of the the episode over the weekend definitely go check this out it'll be in the youtube description um and yeah it was it was really fun actually we talked

about a lot of stuff especially around ether as an asset and what as ultrasound money means for ether as an asset so definitely go check that out so hayden oh man i love i love hayden i really do um he basically put out this tweet over the weekend where he said if i have to go another week without publicly announcing details of unisopv3 i might go insane um and i replied here i haven't been teased this much since high school so but like yeah seriously though like the hype behind v3 is just in in insane sorry in intense and you might have seen a meme that i created over the weekend um uh of of uh of uni swap v3 and how like hayden is hyping it up but i think it's very very very close at

this point i think if i had to go out in a limb and say i think v3 is ready what i think they're waiting for is optimism because i think they want to simultaneously launch v3 on layer 1 and layer 2. now optimism is obviously been quiet for most of march right after hyping up their launch i hope they're still launching in march i wouldn't blame them if they had to delay it for some reason to to april because of of whatever reason like this tech is is hard it's bleeding edge right you want to make sure things are right because you're dealing with real money but i actually think that that's what's happening so if i had to guess i would put it you know kind of likely you know maybe i guess like there's a 50 chance we see it launched this week uh

uni v3 with with optimism um but i would definitely expect it to go live probably the following week if i had to say just from reading between the lines i don't have any special knowledge here or maybe that's just me with the hopium hoping it goes live um then but i think at least the next two to three weeks is going to be pretty fun in terms of like uh things going live and announcements and all that sort of stuff but i'm i'm i'm pretty confident that at this stage um you know the the audits are pretty much done for unisof v3 the you know everything's done everything's built out they're just waiting for for optimism because they want to do this big launch and you know if that's not the case then whatever maybe i i don't want to like kind of hype that up and say that that's

definitely going to be the case maybe they just launch v3 on layer 1 and do layer 2 later but i've said that my dream scenario right now is basically uh uh going from um uh getting like uni v three sorry on layer one and layer two uh and you know optimism going live um at the same time as well to show the world that ethereum can scale in a big way because unisop's obviously the most used app on ethereum um and you know quell all those kind of like bad narratives and also just get v3 out there right i meant a uni token holder of course i would love to see v3 launched but you know the amount of teasing that's been going on is just too much at this stage just launch it please soon i mean i'll be talking about it on the refuel when it's launched of course

and we'll finally get there but yeah really really uh funny tweet from from hayden here and uh you know he's probably gonna tweet more about this during the week if it doesn't launch this week but here's hoping it does so yeah we'll keep an eye on that for sure all right everyone that's it for today thank you again for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to that channel if you haven't yet give that video a thumbs up subscribe to the delegate newsletter join the discord channel and i'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone