How to Discover Crypto's Next Narrative From On-Chain Activity | Icebergy

Transcript

it's really hard to like want to buy one of these tokens when like you just take you and earn like seven percent borrow against it and then use it to buy like whatever you want this episode of Empire is brought to you by thales markets an options platform on arbitrum and optimism that gets you exposure to crypto in the simplest way possible they've made it as easy as simply choosing up or down you'll hear more about dailies later in the show this episode is brought to you by carbon carbon is a new Dex on ethereum that makes concentrated liquidity super easy with carbon LPS can now automate your liquidity strategy with custom on-chain limit and range orders all from a

beautiful UI check out carbon today for unprecedented control over your liquidity all right everyone welcome back to another episode of Empire today we have an interesting guest I'd say so Santi and I have been following this account icebergy uh for for many years and um we're interested to bring them on as an anonymous account an honest person um but we want to spend a little bit of time just hearing the backstory of a burgie uh who is a self-proclaimed Dev angel investor focused on crypto created the crypto whale bot so uh Fergie lots to talk about my friend how you doing yeah I'm good thanks for having me um this is my first podcast appearance so uh please be

patient with me if uh you know Santi and I've been doing this for two years we're still learning my friend so good yeah you know one of the things that I always find interesting uh through covid you know you end up meeting so many people in the space that you actually never meet in real life and I don't know if we've met in real life we've crossed paths but maybe one never knows but you know if you were to ask me like how to describe icebergy the account the way you tweet and how I'm hearing your voice there's a huge disconnect in my brain right now so I would just love to understand like just tell us your story like how did you get started in crypto like anything that you can disclose about who you are like what you pay attention to would love to just kind of

start there yeah so um I guess like I didn't really buy Bitcoin in like the first bubble of like 2013. but one of my really good friends was like always tell me about it by it and like that was at like 300 before ramps like a thousand bucks and I don't know it was just so confusing I was in like college trying to buy like Litecoin and download this wallet and I just like was like this is crazy I'm not gonna do this and kept in touch with them over the years and then um in like 2016 started getting back involved and um it just was like fine Bitcoin I like

gamble on Sports I guess because that was like kind of the only thing going on then and just kind of like lost all my coins like game of sports which obviously I should not have done and that kind of like gave me a good lesson for like the future of like don't just like blow these coins on some stupid stuff and then really got involved in like 2017 with like the Ico Mania and I've done a whole life psycho psycho it was like really it was there were a lot of like sketchy projects and stuff but you could kind of see like where the excitement and everything was headed and so from them just got like really interested in like ethereum and that whole ecosystem and then I like uh survived the bear

Market I built that whale bot on Telegram and just use it as a way to like stick it through the bear Market learn some new skills and like just like survive and that was kind of the hardest part just making it through there and kind of just after surviving you just like meet all these interesting people and network through Twitter I never really wanted to be like a traitor or like um like an influencer gas and then it just kind of like just went with the flow and then defy summer happened and it just kind of went from there mostly just focused like since then like on chain

stuff and like new projects and I don't know it's just been crazy since like D5 summer how do you look at on-chain activity and how do you kind of piece together some of these narratives uh and perhaps maybe just tell us like what are some of the narratives that you're paying attention to now what are the narratives that you think are most overhyped what are the narratives that I think are developing maybe people are not paying enough attention to but will be big over time um the unchain stuff's always very interesting because like a lot of the on-chained like threaders like put out information that's old or like this whale bought this token staked it but like having a lot of money

in crypto doesn't mean like you're uh like a gene anywhere it doesn't really matter like it doesn't make you like a the genius Traders like if you saw like the whole peppy thing people just got really lucky and then there's still people writing threads about so and so about a million dollars a puppy and some of them just been getting chopped chopped up and losing everything they made um so a lot of it is just like actually like watching wallets and like you tagging your own Wallets on either scan or there's some other apps that popped up like somewhat recently like in telegram to like track there's a lot of these like

sniper Bots and like snipers like uh trading on chain so you kind of have to like watch and that they kind of evolve like some people kind of get like hot streaks of like I guess like the whole mean coin kind of really changed at least recently it changed a lot of them like the trading and like the way things have been moving on Shane as for were you a part of Pepe did were you early to that did you start noticing it no my friends only to buy it at like twenty thousand dollars like market cap I was like I'm not buying another one of these things um there was this meta on Jane for like the longest time where like they would top out at like 40 000 not

forty uh 400k and then it would just be down only because everyone would just dump on you so I kind of just got like really sick of it because like when you're bored like that's kind of all there is to do like there's either the nfts or just like punting on these random like new coins and I just got tired of it I was like not buying another one of these because every single other one of them has gone down 90 I'm sure I bought like at least four or five different peppy coins in the past and they've all just went straight to zero and of course the one I like don't buy goes like two billion dollars you know Fergie do you think it's uh do you think it's more value from a Trader's perspective do you think it's more valuable to trade based

on uh narratives that are happening on the chain or narratives that are happening on crypto Twitter um they're kind of two in the same uh because like most of the time it's just price leading and like the best like advertising for something is kind of like the price moving up pricing moves up and more people pay attention and then it's kind of like uh not flywheel but it just kind of like the momentum Builds on top of itself yeah and so I don't know it's it becomes almost a self-fulfilling prophecy of like as prices go more people use that and then

just it kind of gets the ball rolling um here's to get your thoughts on narratives you know it sounds like the half-life for a lot of these narratives is just gone down I mean like Pepe for instance is sort of faded into irrelevance now now it may come back but then you have stuff like Doge that Ebbs and flows but is has been more resilient so this concept of like reflexivity you know it can it can really escalate very quickly spiral up but it can also spiral down in this sort of attention game where it's super hard to get the incremental attention what are some of the things your Frameworks to understand like what's an enduring narrative and that will persist especially like as a Trader as an investor or someone that's been around the space for so long

you kind of want to I'm curious like what your average holding period is uh how comfortable you are holding things for a long-term Horizon how you manage risk like maybe opening up a little bit into kind of your Frameworks and your style of investing yeah I kind of move a lot slower than like the average like crypto person like um I hold things for like months to like years not years but like a year of like the max probably unless it's like a major like eth or Bitcoin um so a lot of these hot narratives I don't like jump on right away unless it's like there's like an actual product or like something to like use like um for example like I was an

investor in blur and I was kind of late to it but like I didn't invest in it until I got to like actually use the product it really helps like when you're actually like out experiencing like using all these different chains or like products and you can actually see like okay maybe I'll actually use this or maybe this isn't just some dumb narrative like I didn't really catch a lot of like remember the AI coins were pumping in like February I just didn't really see I don't I still don't really see AI like the current iteration of it like AI coin until like eventually we get maybe like some sort of like a chat CBT interface and like a actual like

doing the governance for people might be like an interesting thing that happens like like an OM fork with like an AI managing the Dow would be like pretty interesting to see because you'd have like a a really strong Community like following this AI I just don't know if that's really possible but Fergie do you use these products because you actually find Value in them or because it's the best way for you to then get Alpha by seeing what's coming a little bit of both um so like you can do a lot of like the airdrop farming which is pretty like profitable to like do but like then just airdrop like farming and using these new products like you

can actually see like okay maybe actually do you want to buy this token and then you get like deep in the weeds or like the discords the telegrams and like just random things on Twitter and you can kind of see like after using it for a little bit okay maybe this is actually useful or like the community strong they actually believe that this is actually a useful product but like most of the stuff on chain that's useful is just like trading tools lending and borrowing just like people just want leverage and just want to like Gamble and puns on things I'm um I'm curious what your thoughts are on you know Solana for instance where it's perhaps still

getting a lot of usage on chain like metrics are are strong yeah nonetheless you know just got the listed from Robin Hood a bunch of other apps um and it's it's very polarizing and so when you look at something like that does it do you pay attention to that do you just generally what are your thoughts in Solana maybe other ecosystems that are less than the Limelight you know not a theory yeah uh I don't know I like Solana as like an idea but it's just been like impossible to make money um just every token I buy just goes straight down or every NFC doesn't do too hot I mean we were of the mind that we were fairly well at least you portray yourself as

someone that is a good Trader um is it what you just said is is that more describing kind of the current state of times where it's the Market's been choppy it's it's fairly hard uh to make money in the in the current environment or just generally speaking no I would say it's been a pretty like like great year on chain um since like Almeida like disappear like all the farming's been pretty decent finding new products has been pretty good like you don't have like a perk being listed right away that they like just short your token and farm it to that um but like I just take a lot of Pawns and a lot of like opportunities and I guess that kind of leads like your big

winner is definitely outweigh any losers but like if you keep getting like all these paper cuts over and over and over again like on a certain chain then you kind of like you kind of walk back and go maybe I'm doing something wrong here um there have been a lot of like interesting new projects like dropping on Seoul but I just don't really know who's using them like but they have the whole like the Mev stuff that tensor um there was another one too I don't know one of my friends who's really deep in the weeds has been buying these he sees them as like a very one-sided bet like it can only go to zero but like the Caps are pretty small

and as long as the team like is still like Tweeting or like doing things then it's probably like a decent but I just um I don't know I just I bought like a couple cell phones like maybe get air drops and stuff um so like I'm out here like using the stuff and like it's it's even for me to like make money on some of these chains it's just kind of like and see that too much work when you just get like an evm roll up or somewhere easier with like new projects new teams and like maybe I'm just not as well connected and like the Solana ecosystem or like some of these other chains that I don't like know everything that's going on there but it just seems much

much more difficult there as of right now you know as a as a listener they're probably wondering you know you started Wall Street bets you talked about AMD Now videos all the rage um why even spend time in crypto anymore like why not just go to a traditional Market get leverage trade these things you know you could probably use a lot of the same strategies you're doing to play In traditional markets like liquidity is really dry in crypto now so why even stay here you know I mean like why not go to traditional markets and play with the same kind of stuff you know you have videos of the world that can you know print massive candles that

you no longer kind of see in crypto I just think uh it's much more competitive um I I've been buying like uh AI stocks like since January so like I I still like do it but like I just um it's much more like passive turn my mind off I just want to like beat the s p and that's kind of it like text stuff or like stocks um I just think that the edge in crypto that I have and I think most people probably have is much much higher than like playing in a traditional Market um I always um I'm a little hesitant to like trade options and do all that because I figured the person who's selling them is

a little bit more sophisticated than I am and paying much more much more attention than like I am I you can like take punts and stuff like that but I don't know I think um with like networking people I've met and probably most people in this space you can still have a a bigger Edge in crypto than like traditional markets is because I have a lot of friends in traditional markets and the work they do they're listening to earnings calls at like 2 A.M and that's not really something I really want to be doing and they're reading all these um earning reports and comparing and contrasting of like different

different markets and it just is a I can have like a you know you can have like a telegram chat and Discord Channel where like everyone's working all the time in crypto and I think probably like 10 20 people can probably do more research than like I would be able to do on myself for like traditional markets I think this is a really important point you know when I first came to crypto from traditional markets you're sort of thinking that especially when a lot of this information is on chain I mean it's like continuous financial statements like looking at the health of a protocol and looking at like Ave for instance look at the number of originations and positions

and you you sort of think like everyone's paying attention and it's going to be super competitive and and you second guess yourself because you're saying am I missing something like why is it why is there a big disconnect between something that's getting a lot of usage traction but the price doesn't seem to reflect that at least what your fundamental value or you know your value which is a question of itself but then you're wondering it's curious because there's a lot of information on chain but my assessment is most people don't show up to Discord or they're not paying attention and you have access to these teams like it's just crazy uh because there is more information there's more transparency but a lot of people don't kind of do the work

um I'm I'm curious like talking about D5 for instance they're you know it's proven time and time again that it's resilient a lot of a lot of activities moving on chain you look at some of the unit swap or a curve some of these protocols like continue to chug along and have proven to be fairly anti-fragile or resilient at least but the price doesn't reflect that uh for a lot of these projects you know it's down only um so I'm curious like how much attention do you pay to defy what your thoughts are on D5 generally um because prices really have not really

recovered and have been in this kind of down only mode for a while now yeah like I think D5 is actually really useful um specifically for like trading on chain um the one thing that's very different than like um like punting on like a like a perfect stranger like just a traditional like crypto Exchange is like you can only there's only so many assets and stuff you can trade and so like borrowing against assets that you already own is like uh it's like soft like less leverage and you get just like trading but then like trading on like an exchange and that kind of opens up a lot of doors

and possibilities that aren't like really available Unchained or like on exchanges for like the D5 products they're like super useful but like that doesn't mean the token is going to go up like we've seen this many times we're like a super useful protocol on the token doesn't have to go up and I'm kind of like I really like D5 the tokens are hit or miss the only thing I'm really concerned about is since like e-staking and like each deflationary a lot of these youth ratios are not really it's really hard to like want to buy one of these tokens when like you just take you and earn like seven percent borrow

against it and then use that to buy like whatever you want a lot of people think it's because they're not returning revenues to like the token holders but even if they did that I don't think that's going to mean the tokens gonna go up you know um then you kind of get caught and like the the value trap of like this token makes this much so it should be this much and that doesn't mean it'll always make that much and I don't know you just get into a weird game of like almost going by traditional markets of like value these things based on Revenue um and I still think do you remember back in the D5 summer that the um

what were they calling the like app chain not app chain but the app value accrual thing still feel like that might be possible but it's going to take these things like the tokens to become like actual like monopolies on chain and like kind of to dominate their they're already dominating their section but real like I just don't know what they have to do like completely dominate their segment and then get like maybe more broad of like uh was it horizontally it's still just hard like they're all kind of trying to do the same thing to a point

yeah I mean you could you could it's a great point I mean a cynic would probably say or just someone would say Hey listen you're better off investing in the layer one token because that's going to capture Mev versus investing in D5 token even though like you still you're starting to see these clusters like uniswap dominates like as a text um it just commands market share like no other um Ave compound You could argue like a duopoly there uh maker you know as well but none of these tokens have really performed I mean they drastically underperform eth and so I guess it sort of begs the question like

generally I found that even for early stage investing it is very hard to outperform eth over the medium to long term and that was even before to your point where you have this deflationary asset that is um you know has a staking component to it that you can earn a nice yield um I guess where I'm trying to go with this is you know how is your style of investing changed over since you got started um you know you talk about being part of the Ico craze you talk about you know buying Bitcoin in the early days you have a whole range of possibilities now narratives and it's sort of an infinite like a very

very expanding Universe of things that you can buy um you know or you value momentum I'm like referencing traditional investing Styles but contrarian like what is your style of investing what are some of the more useful Frameworks that you hold on to to make sense of this market like vividly remember back in 2017 buying these all coins and just massively underperforming Bitcoin and also the massively underperforming Youth and certain periods and that experience of like underperformance is just um kind of like Soul crushing so since then I've always like back in like 2018 2019 was

you had to outperform bitcoin because that's just like what um well you had it turned into like our performance and cash because everything was just going down but like in a bull market the the underperforming youth or like underperforming Bitcoin you might as well just do nothing you're better off just doing nothing and just holding those and outside of like I guess I kind of see it similar to like passive like investing in like S P 500 where like your main goal is just like outperform like a killer year is just like outperforming the Spy and so I just use that as a similar framework too if I can outperform Ethan

Bitcoin like that's pretty awesome and so just have a majority that's kind of why I like the lending and borrowing so much is because you can hold majority of your assets in youth or Bitcoin and borrow against that to take these smaller size but like higher risk higher reward on these like smaller cap potential like plays while still having like the performance of Eve and Bitcoin as like the the underlying portfolio you just have to be very careful for something like last year to happen where everything blows up and then the best performance you can do is just hold cash yeah I mean and what is your on this

point you know how do you think about holding cash Stables um um you know certainly there's some risk earlier this year about you know holding particular stable coins it could depeg and um you know what's your kind of latest positioning or how have you repositioned your portfolio over the last year or so where you've had multiple blow-ups there's counterparty risk there's liquidity risks there's off on and off ramping risks like how have you processed all of that and how have you repositioned your portfolio to kind of weather any sort of impending wins that we're seeing um like I was pretty big into like the yo farming stuff and so that kept a lot

of my portfolio and like stables for a while um luckily I didn't touch like UST or anything like that so I've kind of dodged a lot of like the on-chain like stuff and I just use that as like a way to like not be all in and like just have something on the sideline either to like buy a dip or like you know like when usdc depeg that was such an easy trade because everyone was just super panicked and I just like bought a bunch of usdc and I don't know I've seen that happen so many times I don't know if you remember the the tether blow-ups where it went to like point nine quite a few times and I

just see that as um if one of those blows up kryptos kind of like over not over but it's not going to be in a very good place so I just buy it and then that's like a few like 10 that's pretty good for like a week on I want to go back to comparing like last cycle to this cycle um like a lot of times you need one or two narratives that seem subtle at the beginning to really kick-start more interest more attention and like an enduring like bull market I guess the problem is that looking at historical kind of restarts and and

Cycles you had this ample liquidity in the market because of a very like record low interest rate environment and I I'm curious to get your thoughts on how you think about investing in a state of the world where it's just much hot it's just a very different ball game when you have higher interest rates and and less liquidity in the market for people to punt and gamble on you know crypto and traditional markets and like does that compute does that change how you think about the opportunity cost and how you think about where the space can actually go can we actually recover um does it take longer I'm sort of curious how you process all of this

yeah um the whole liquidity thing definitely is a fact but I think it's kind of overblown like I don't know if you saw those accounts on Twitter just talking about the TGA like non-stop or I've like never heard anyone talk about the CGA for like seven eight years um but it's definitely have like an impact on like some of these coins where like yeah I just see it as if prices aren't like higher if I don't really think prices are higher in a year or so I think I'm kind of like wasting my time here and like if that you know like if I didn't really think prices would be higher in like a year or

two or like this technology was actually like useful probably better off just going to do something else and so I see it as like you know at the top like things are never better never get better but at the bottom things are always the worst and can only get worse and I always think there's somewhere in the middle of both of like I try to like I definitely have a more optimistic Outlook like majority of the time so I just never really think things are as bad as like what people really think um I don't know I guess I'm kind of just like a not like a dumb Bowl but that's kind of like how I position that's why I like

would hold like um Stables on the side because I know my bias is pretty heavily weighted to like up but if my goal is just to survive then I just have to survive until it's easy again yeah I mean I I think everyone in the space generally there's a tendency to be optimistic because you just one you can compare it to a lot of progress that you've made over the last six seven years on the infrastructure side on a number of fronts and you know if you like to eat back then at 1400 like five was it three years ago four years ago you certainly like it now when you have l2s you have much more traction you have much more

narratives and use cases um but you know that's not to say that it's going to recover as fast and survival is key right and so I'm just kind of curious in your mind like talking a little bit more about survival like what are some of the things that that you're doing that have been most helpful to kind of survive Cycles like if you could just spent a moment there like maybe what's starting like what's your allocation like at any given point in time like how much do you hold cash and I bring this up because like I've been listening to like you listen to someone like Stan Duncan Miller legendary investor and he says look I just don't see a fat pitch is coming to

this point like I want to invest when there's a fat pitch and right now there's none and it's a really tough environment so but people don't like to hold cash and so maybe I'll start asking the question like how much cash do you hold at any given point in time um and how do you manage kind of surviving through these Cycles yeah uh I don't really I'm trying to think of how to like say it like put this um I don't really have like an exact framework it's kind of more just like that and like if I have like a token that like just really outperformed like just sell some to catch you know like it doesn't hurt there's always

another opportunity and um it doesn't hurt to like Miss stuff it doesn't hurt to like I mean it held things up multiple percentage and then just down to like re-entry um it just kind of happens and like I don't know I don't really see like you don't have to hit every single pitch and we're like you just don't want to like strike out like and like lose everything so like just a majority in life like the majors for now until Things become interesting I've just been thinking about this a lot lately of like so in like 2021 it was like pretty clear

like layered ones would like take off you know with like the BSC season and if I were to tell someone now of like if someone asked me like what crypto do I buy to like make a ton of money I I don't know you know like uh it seems a little bit more obvious back then but even now like some of the market caps are pretty high so like I've just been trying to like think about like what's like for like next cycle or like next kind of narrative like what will really outperform and it's just like you just have to think about it for a long time and like maybe there isn't one and maybe it's just eat or like maybe it's just Bitcoin um especially with all like the

regulations and stuff um so if we're like surviving I think I do like 30 20 to 30 cash and then just stables and then um like majors and maybe like 20 15 for like um I feel like they're made so it's like 30 cash 30 stables and then each Bitcoin and then like uh 10 20 for like um speculative place like uh uh any deals that might come through or um like some hot narrative that pops up just on this point along like curious if

you've Diversified away you say you have cash not Stables that means you're sort of like well there's no Stables I use them like interchangeably okay so so like roughly if I'm hearing you right it's uh what is it 40 60 at any given point in time Stables yeah that sounds about right wow are you you know some of the real good Stables or yeah um here and there um what are your thoughts around like D5 yields like stay yield on stable coins like you're better off like buying treasuries why not just I've kind of I kind of walked away from that uh in the last couple of months just because the yields

aren't really worth it um but there was a good time where it was like 20 30 for like you know like two years that's like pretty pretty good I don't know I need to figure out something to do with that um like that stable allocation now because I feel like yeah I don't know um you also haven't been very good and then like I don't really want to buy T-Bones because I figured you'll outperform like like this year buying stocks but here already pretty allocated with socks I don't really want to chase that um crypto the regulations a little bit iffy

um get through the other side of that like maybe the xrp thing goes through and be much more heavily allocated but I don't know a lot of like um I just did a lot of like lending and borrowing with my ease so that was kind of like how I use that as like a very low leverage and so that's kind of why I held like a lot of cash or Stables yeah yeah absent in this conversation was nfts I'm curious do you think about one nfts because you mentioned blur do you think about nfts in this portfolio or do you just have a separate bucket Collectibles they don't even compute in the investing kind of portfolio bracket yeah no the nfds are I always write them

off as zero um and that's like a added bonus of like okay I sold this for x amount um that's pretty like you know it's pretty nice um for fds I haven't really seen I know the nft summer is crazy where you just buy art blocks for 0.18 and sell them for like three to five and just people weren't really paying attention to like art blocks and I don't know I I feel like that eventually comes back but in like a different way um I don't know if you've seen recently like the the Jack uh butcher stuff's been really popular like the nft like people have kind of like written off in like abandoned nfts I feel like

so like trade mean coins they've sold all the entities of binding coins so I still think like nfts are like super interesting but they're more of like a they're like fun something to do so like you don't like to trade up and shop and like lose all your money um it's kind of just like a a Time investment to keep yourself busy because like the best nfcs I've ever like bought were like cheap and like they didn't really like have like a meaningful impact but then other people started to like think they were like blue chips or like something like super valuable and so I don't know I nfcs will come back but they're like having their own little

uh in the drought I'd say 2018 moment for erc20s I guess yes I don't really the thing I'm worried about nfts is again like the ratios like if you can just take your youth why would you put 50 even to something yeah um they might go up in like dollar amounts but I don't really know if they outperform in like these terms no certainly I'm curious um generally speaking when you make an investment and I've heard you say you have kind of different you know sometimes you look at it in a short-term basis but it's never more than it sounds like a year um do you go into an investment or a trade with a particular number in mind

of when you punch out is it it becomes too big a percentage of your portfolio you clock you beat the Spy you beat The Benchmark whether it eats ether Bitcoin I'm curious how you think about or if you even think about look if it reaches this price I'm out you know if it's 20 this year I'm fine with and anything above 20 I'll just cut and go to Stables yeah that's like another one just depends on the market of like um I've had some mistakes of like you know trading your p l or trading like you're unrealized gains and like I from my experience just like setting an actual number you want to hit for a

certain investment just never has worked out well for me um and I look at it more of like a market cap kind of thing if it's at this market cap then okay like I should just even if I don't really want to I'll just take some off because I know I have like a bullish bias or like I'm not really probably like digging clearly so I don't know and then I've had it the other way of like just selling too early and you miss out because you're trading like a number and not like uh you know like the trade's still going they're still like there's momentum I don't know I think um back like there's some podcasts to

listen to of like um a lot of like crypto stuff like kind of depends I don't really fully believe it but the whole ta stuff um I don't know like I've gotten much better at like okay this is like kind of died off you know like the momentum stopped and I don't know it's still just something I'm not like perfect at to like exit something um for like now I see it it's made us a little different because like a bear market and um I still might want to own these tokens if things turn around and so I don't really it's kind of like Market dependent and like how things are going and like you can answer a little bit you can kind

of tell too with like Euphoria of like people on Twitter where like they're like uh is remember that safe mode guy like screaming and in April 2021 I say oh okay that's probably like I don't know there's like little signs and stuff of like okay maybe it's time to to pull a little bit off this episode is brought to you by thales a new frontier in simple on-chain options here's what you do you choose an asset a strike price and the market you want to participate in and that's it with its powerful and capital efficient amm based architecture thales is able to offer low fees automated liquidity and effective utilization of Leverage with

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now let's get back to Empire Fergie I want to get your take move away from the trading side a little bit and just talk about um a couple of the big topics that are happening right now so one of them is um Roll-Ups um and just like the L2 space but would be curious to get your take on like optimism versus arbitrum and what just I guess what's happening in the in the roll up in the in the L2 space in general right now yeah there just seems like a very big disconnect of like communities between like optimism and Arbitron um it's always seemed like I guess because like Arboretum was more of like an open uh starting point when they like launched select more projects were like

open to like building there and it I don't know if you remember the uh there was that nyan cat on Arvest route that everyone was like farming is like all of our Trump Eve was in this Nyan Cat Paris RV cat kind of thing and I think that kind of like started the like djen kind of like aspect of like Arbitron it was just like a very different set of communities like the optimism one seems much more um maybe like I I don't really know how to put it of like a VC Focus kind of thing where um a lot of people just seem to hold their tokens and don't sell them all the time so things kind of just behave very

differently than like an Aubuchon and Arbitron is much more like degenerate or like mercenary Capital where like they're looking for like a quick trade quick flip and outside of like some of the few like major ones that have been a big success on Arbor strong it's kind of like uh it's very fast it moves much faster how do you see the roll of space playing out once once all these like um once all the ZK EVMS get get launched and go to mainnet maybe like later this year like the Scrolls of the world do you think that what's what's the impact on the on the L2 space see I don't really

because like the the optimistic ones the optimistic ropes just have like a pretty big lead on them which is like people building on them users comfortable with them um and then the coinbase really the coinbase chain will be very interesting to like how they direct people in there like if you saw like today Robin Hood's like making everyone sell yep if they don't pull out the Solana Matic and Cardona and uh I think they'll drive a lot of like trading volume through their wallet to get people over there and I just don't know how the ZK like Roll-Ups catch up to kind of like the

the Head Start thing I know like they'll be like supposedly more efficient cheaper to use you can withdraw your money really fast but if like coinbase is the like bridge and point for some of this stuff you can still move your money around pretty fast yeah and so I think it comes down more to like what becomes like a better user experience where will people like want to be trading where will they be able to make more money um like the meme coin and stuff on eth like that was just people throwing around like crazy amount of money to buy like these meme coins and you didn't really see that on any other chain and I just don't see how some of these EK things get that sort of

traction or like um people using the outside of like a Toca and like the token everyone's just farming like if you look at the user metrics of like the ZK stuff I know it's still early so it's hard to like verify but like it just seems like yeah it's just people like farming yeah do you think um one thing that we haven't seen is value accrue to nfts on anything basically outside of eth um I guess you had it with the Mad Lads in Solana a little bit but do you think eventually nfts can get big on Roll-Ups or not really yeah so I've been thinking about this too of like

why that happened and I think it's similar to like the meme coins where like that's like where the liquidity is and that's where like people are like taking punts and like aggressively buying things whether or not it works out for them and I guess the nfts maybe didn't take off on Roll-Ups or anything like that because like openc wasn't deployed there and like that was more of like a muscle memory of like when you wanted to go buy an NFC you just went to openc like that's just where everyone was that's where all the attention and money and everything was there's just not really on some of these other chains it's just hard to keep track of everything like all these nfts and if they're not like

going up or like you're just holding there's no buyers then people just get impatient and just like floor it and get out so I I think it kind of has to do with like the attention and it wasn't like openc wasn't deployed there and then um yeah maybe also to like the NFC people like you couldn't create like your sometimes like you couldn't put your profile pic on certain chains or anything like that as like there's Twitter profile so I don't know it was kind of a lot of things but I still feel like they should eventually I just don't know what's holding it back yeah burger what do you think is the

most misunderstood thing in crypto right now I think probably just like the meme coins of like um a lot of people think it's like a I I get like people by the top lose their money but like just please don't like put all your minds like a meme but like I don't think people understand like the The Meta of like how intense like the things have changed around like mean coins and like the attention they've been getting it it just seems like it's like a a offshoot of like there's like a very big disconnect between the people trading these and like people like trading on like

exchanges where like some of the tooling and like um to like buy and snipe some of this stuff on Shane is really really um changed the last few months where like one of these bought it's a little it's not you don't hold your own key you see if that like give your money to the spot to like do everything for you but you can like click buttons to trade for you and it was really one of the top like earning D5 protocols which is really crazy I just think people don't really like the Market's telling you where everything's kind of going to like this

uh coin casino kind of thing but a lot of people are kind of afraid to like admit that yeah yeah anything we haven't talked about that you think is really interesting or overhyped or underhyped or other things you're paying attention to that we haven't talked about [Music] I've been trying to think of like what could like Revitalize like D5 I don't really know like what does it do you guys have like any thoughts on that I I'd be curious to hear like what you you think because maybe you've seen something that I have in terms of narratives

like what brings back defy summer another D5 bull market I mean it's been yeah two years since we've seen a bull market in D5 something um I think regular short clarity yeah um you know uh you mentioned the xrp case generally speaking I feel like if that goes through in a positive manner I think I'd like to see a uh the design space for a token tokens really kind of come back because I think it's been hampered dramatically by this limbo and Regulatory kind of uncertainty and I've been seeing a lot of teams like very hesitant to drop a token now which

yeah yeah it doesn't make sense from a timing perspective a market solved you have regulatory risk but you have to do it at some point I mean we go back to this idea where like it was like blockchain not crypto and I I'm very much of the mind that you need to have a token for these things to coordinate activity and to decentralize and to you know compensate people and the value of cruel is set in a way in the expressed in a token I'm very much of that belief and I would hope that with regulatory Clarity we can have a path forward where we can actually just think more clearly and objectively about

how to design tokens without with a clear framework in place to say okay we're going to follow these rules this could be you know fond we're compliant we're okay we're following this Playbook to eliminate regulatory risk and then just think clearly of how to design airdrops how to just I think it just frees up a lot of mental like a lot of headspace that has been going to navigating this you know uncertainty that is in the market yeah that's um I clearly remember becoming like almost like a Bitcoin Maxi in like the 2019 where it's like everything why does this need a token but I definitely changed my

mind of like probably everything whether good or bad at least you should try it but navigating around these like we can't do this because blah blah um just seems like you're taking too much like mental you know like mental energy to like it should just be a token it shouldn't really be I should have like these set Frameworks where like you can have like a value accrual of it without having to like walk around the lines you know um yeah I guess that would probably be like the most like I just don't know how the xrp case will go of like it seems like they'll probably

seems like things are going good uh with some other uh things they've acquired uh recently but I think I saw an interesting data point today I don't know how true this is but they've earmark and or spent 150 million on this defense xrp has and coinbase and binance apparently is earmark over a billion and yeah I'm not sure how again haven't verified this but if it were to be true I mean putting aside figures I would think that look both coinbase and binance and grayscale have plenty of resources to

to fight this and I think the outcome of that is is positive I've been encouraged by the courts and how they're interpreting it and the hope would be that you know we get finally some some rules in place from some guidance I mean you already have Mika in your uh the UK is coming out with clear guidance I think that's all it really needs I mean I'll ask you the question like how much Capital do you think has been on the sidelines over the last six years because of this regulatory uh overhang well I just don't because like some of the big funds raised um a ton of money in 2021 and it didn't really seem like they

could allocate all of that so I don't really know if there was that much money on the sidelines waiting to buy and then like Bitcoin if they both have like a I think most people consider them Commodities I'm sure there's people who don't um so I don't really know how much money is on the sideline Maybe uh it could be like a career risk of like you don't want to be buying this because like of regulations if you're like in traditional Finance so maybe there's some money on the sideline there but the only thing that gives me a little bit pause is these some of the the big VC funds weren't able to allocate it seems like all their capital and crypto yeah I mean I think it's a good point

fair point I mean a lot of those strategies are at release stage like some of these funds just want to allocate into private stuff which is capacity constraint would agree there but um yeah I guess they don't really have a mandate to be buying things that are mandates to like go by early stage stuff so I don't know maybe there is actually a decent amount on the sideline um yeah I just generally think like a lot of people have turned away from thinking about crypto even nfts if you're because of this regulatory overhang now encouragingly we're seeing Brands like lvmh like just tread along

and Nike and some other it just you know look at I think nfts are in a different position that Soul bound one was kind of interesting that they're they're coming out with um um but yeah I don't know I mean it legitimizes a space at a minimum credentializes it um it allows as an industry to move forward and have a stronger defense um I think still there is a lot of room to meet this narrative and Promises with actual product I think there's always that deficit with his side in Prior Cycles I think there it continues to be here today like

gaming we're nowhere near producing like super high quality games it's gonna take time yeah the gaming thing always um has given me a little bit of pause like you can you can see the vision but the execution of it just seems so difficult to actually pull off I don't know what it takes to actually pull it off and I I just don't really for most people I don't really think it like for people in crypto it's not very it's just hard to invest in or buy yeah because you have to like play the game to know it's good and that takes a big like time investment yeah absolutely um

anything else I mean questions for us or just things that are on your mind you're paying attention to that you want to talk about um you know what actually the Social Media stuff is kind of interesting too um just the user experience of it and like crypto like the the two main ones are like warp caster and lens and um like the apps are pretty good they're useful but I just don't know what takes it to get the the snowball rolling of people like actually logging in there and um using it and that kind of ties into I guess like the meme tokens were kind of like not they were a decent iteration on like the

social tokens which people always like talked about over the years but I don't think it was a very good iteration of it but it might be like laying the groundwork for it but you can get a lot trouble for that stuff so um I just don't know I can see kind of like where it might go I just don't know how like the execution of like actual social tokens might Implement like the real world you know well let me ask you a question like obviously there was big clout that you know gave a coin to each Creator is a Creator coins you're someone that has 100 plus 130 000 plus followers on Twitter

you you produce good content um did you ever want are you dismissive or where do you stand in terms of uh big cloud type I'm not saying just big cloud but just the idea of having a token representing kind of your Social currency do you think that this is like steemit right like do you think that that tampers with a lot of us just are on Twitter because that's where we engage with people but you're not doing it to to like be a paid chill you know like in many ways I think it may tamper with the genuine aspect of you just want to engage and you want to communicate and the minute you introduce like value to

that you it sort of distorts it in a very different way and it just changes the game some people might like it others don't right I mean there's a bunch of influencers out there I'm curious like what are you where do you stand in terms of bitcloud models Creator coins I've always seen like I like didn't want to be like I'm sorry I guess um so I just use this as like a way to like Network and talk to people and like keep active like ask it's like the best Google in the world where you can just ask questions and 10 people will tell you right 10 people will tell you wrong and then it's like a very good public chat room um I wouldn't want to like have a token

but I would want to maybe like punt on like buy other people's tokens because I don't know um I think it would be kind of fun interesting but I can see it kind of going uh a bad way too so uh with big cloud they just um yeah that was a weird one I didn't really know what was going on with that one but maybe I I don't really I feel like you just have to try it and see what happens um but you have to be very careful because it can go very raw you know and that can kind of kill like one of these platforms yeah well I'll tell you I mean we announced lens this week like that was

an investment I I mean I have a good relationship with the Bobby team and stani I created My Lens profile to be very transparent it it is hard to change your flow you know are you used to going on Twitter and that's where the conversation is um and I've talked to Sunny about ways to kind of insert yourself in that flow and the thing that comes to mind is can you can you create some sort of app where if you if you tweet it automatically posts on lens like by default and then like as an initial hook right just Port over the content like Airbnb did this great strategy where they reverse kind of pulled all the listings that were on

Craigslist and then just slapped a really nice picture because Craigslist is kind of shady right for real like real estate listings and then they just like hired photographers created like beautiful like UI ux and like pictures and that was really all it took to kind of source all the inventory and the content to the platform if you could somehow do that you know I think what was encouraging at the time where I started looking at Lens was you know this time where a lot of people got the platform right you had like president of the United States it's losing his Twitter account um and people get Shadow banned and it's they've been changing the algorithm so much that it's difficult to understand how like sometimes it's just

it's been difficult to understand engagement and if I don't like I I think about it but I haven't seen it in practice but I think if someone were to like say hey go to lens and look at your profile like and if assuming you already have the content there like all my tweets are on lens and then someone could say hey look at all these analytics of like hey look at you can maybe play around with curation and engagement and like like maybe that's what like there's like a there's going to be I think if these things ever work there's going to be a killer function value at that you don't have on Twitter that allows you to connect with your

audience understand engagement and maybe get higher like right now I'm really lost in every week there's changes to the Twitter platform like right now I look at comments and then there's like somehow there's like a there's a relevant you know I mean like if you scroll down comments and then you see like uh what is it it's like yeah yeah it's like a discover more yeah discover more I'm like guys no like I don't care about that like you're messing with my brain too much um there's also this search is completely broken too search is broken um you know what else uh you know the the classic one that always gets me is like the for you and following I'm like just

don't show for you I'm just this is the reason why I just follow certain people like I've seen like 30 people die on Twitter in the last like day it's been pretty awful yeah and so I don't know why they put those out there like for just in the for you page you know and I generally think like there is some interesting experiments going on in Twitter where it felt like it was super static for such a long time you know subscribers and there's this idea that subscribers able to get the emails from their you know all these things are like interesting but that's not to say that that's where I'm like if I'm the lens team I'd be looking at saying you know there's a big part of of creators and you know people that are

on this platform that would appreciate being perhaps more targeted in in the curation and the content generation and like look look at Facebook like I haven't been on Facebook since years because the feed went from being hey this is cool an aggregated view of my friends too this looks like it's Time Square and it sucks I want to get out of here as quickly as possible it just you know I mean it's terrible these like the social media you just need a reason to like open the app like once a day that's like really what they yes to like work on if you can find a reason and it becomes like muscle

memory you can have a reason to like openness to like look at it once a day or like once a week or something like that where yeah just habituals I have it I don't know but then there's all those other ones like the blue sky and Nordstrom I haven't even and then Instagram is supposedly coming out like a Twitter Club it just seems like too much but I feel like there's there has to be some opportunity here for something like that it's just kind of like a forgotten aspect of like crypto um if you remember back in like 2017 there were all these crazy ideas people have there I thought like lending on chain was like the dumbest thing I was like why would I ever want to win like crypto um turns out that was like actually a

pretty good use case but yeah there are a lot of things from that cycle where like okay now it makes sense like in practice I'm there's got to be a bunch of those ideas from past Cycles even the um yeah even this castle and like nfts and just crypto in general that I probably have a big like use case in the future or not use case but um maybe a hype cycle or like someone actually builds something interesting mm-hmm uh it's a great observation I've been thinking more about let's go back to some of the things that we were bullish on in the last cycles that didn't end up working

like let's revisit that because in that list is going to be a killer use case because the infrastructure is different the environment's different especially in crypto where you have like the infrastructure deployment cycle is is such where you have layer twos like it's just a different ball game yeah the layer two is really open up a lot of like more computational that you can they reopen the design space in an interesting way you just have to be careful because like a lot of them that's like the bugs and stuff and some of that stuff like a lot of them shouldn't be happening of like they're just common mistakes that just slip through by their I don't know some of them some of them might be intentional I hope some of them are just honest mistakes

one of the best Traders I think it was Kobe or someone else that said like I heard him say who's telling me like the best investments that he'd made was not the first iteration but the second iteration the second best idea uh like you said I made way more money on Litecoin than Bitcoin yeah I mean I'm quoting not saying it was Kobe but like you know I mean and in many ways that was my thesis with Ave you were you had compound it had raised money from well-known VCS but then you had land at the time and it was public and the team hadn't given up and it was the same model but it was trading on like a quarter of the valuation or so but at human capital alone you were in the money and I think oftentimes we get caught up in look narratives are

important in the space and sometimes you know a lot of these projects may not recover because they're just it's an attention economy if you're not in the top 100 coins it's really difficult to get gather attention but I think fundamentally over a decent amount of time to your point on tracking on chain activity using these things I think you get a lot of confidence from it is price is super important but ultimately I think it's you have faith that over time if something is delivering value and people are using it it's going to get more attention and if it gets more attention then it's more users show up and it sort of restarts that cycle um and if it's not that protocol it's another protocol right if it's another

if it's not you know a derivatives platform in ethereum maybe it's a derivatives platform on an L2 or some other chain you know yeah just some of like the user experience needs to like improve um yeah well certainly I mean isn't that everything in crypto have you ever been liquidated on chain and then like you go to check and your money's just gone oh boy I've been liquidated I was liquidated on chain in that uh black Thursday um I had some positions in dydx and maker and I was like okay dydx especially was was how to really faulty Oracle and and it was I lost a fair amount of Youth on that one I don't know yeah it's just like uh you don't get any email you just

go and you're like oh unless you have like a wallet tracker where like you get alerts of stuff it's like oh yeah yeah no notice it's like thanks for playing come back not even come back later this is like thanks for playing the D5 saver for instance was something that I discovered in that process like automatic like refill and managing a position you're not going to get a call but at least it you know they're smart contracts and like I'm not endorsing people should do their own research but for me I looked at that and say oh it's pretty cool functionality where you set the limits of when to refill collateral automatically so you don't get liquidated and of course you're trusting like flash loans and their ability to like execute these transactions uh and re you know rebalance the position so that you don't

get liquidated and what usually coincides with a really congested environment high gas free environment but yeah like yeah you know I think uh we learn through Through Fire I guess in many ways as early beta testers uh in crypto yeah this just comes with the territory I guess um but like that's kind of like the user experience on some of these like perp dexes and it's um you can see where it's headed but it's still like unironically early where like there's no way some of this stuff will get like adoption but you can see like the groundwork being laid of like where this could potentially be like used and I think like a lot of people just

miss that of like um it's always like you know like this is the worst why would anyone use this is like stupid pointless um I don't know I like that a lot like be sure to use these like crypto quite a bit for like not having many use cases even if the current use cases are mostly like speculation and like uh like just trading which is a question do you think that's bad I don't really think so but I can see why people would consider it not very like productive to society well does by that token does that not render Netflix Hollywood Vegas uh all the kind of sport leagues

not economically productive and bad for society and though they should be all go to zero no I I don't think it's like a a bad thing I just think um it's you you listen to these people and it's like it's crypto is like the gonna say save the world save Society unbank the bank less and um I think you kind of get distracted and like the current iteration of it and you can't you don't you kind of lose sight of like what like Bitcoin and like eat and like these things could actually end up doing it doesn't really make a lot of sense maybe not a lot of time to take that back of like

um the use cases in different countries are very different and I think a lot of people don't really realize X like they've never lived anywhere else so most places you don't have to worry about Capital flight you don't have to worry about like your dollar devaluing or like access to like a bank but even in like Western countries like banks are kind of a pain that has to deal with if you want to like transfer a certain amount of money and um with reason I mean there's reasons why those laws exist but it's still just I don't know a pain yeah yeah I think uh we could as an industry be more honest um

and at the same time realize that you know a big part of this is just greater consumer preference and optionality and that's a good thing anything that enhances that especially in a transparent manner you know is is good and people are going to do things that they value and whether you you know the role of of a regulator should not be to have an opinion on whether a particular thing has value or not is whether just to make sure that if people are going to show up that it's of equal Fair playing Ground you know with access to information and and and that I think is something that sometimes is lost in so many people where you know government is is there to police but not to having to tell people

what their preferences should be or should not be everyone at the end of the day is it's a free Society like people have Independence to do whatever they want with their money they want to send it to ben.e well you know just just at least make sure that you understand why you're sending it and what you're going to get out of it yeah uh yeah some of those seems to be a pretty big disconnect in some of this where like you know like in traditional markets getting like data or like any of this information can be like pretty hard to like come by and crypto is like the most like open you get like data from any exchange super absolutely and I don't know it just seems like it seems like one of the most free not

like it's perfect but like it's pretty open and accessible to just about anyone yeah 100 whether like you know you're trading like um like a JPEG with like a cat on it like that's fine like go for it there's nothing wrong with that to me absolutely I mean and I can kind of think like speculation drives like Innovation to where like you need you need people speculating you need like people experimenting or else like what I don't know how do you know if anything's like usable or like an actual product that could be without like people speculating what's true for the internet and has been true for pretty much every major breakthrough attack out there and so I think we're in this just

got to remind ourselves of that and allow for that creativity to flow and you know as you said the most important thing is reminding ourselves of the core elements here which is it's a more transparent equal playing Ground and that is the most important thing how can we do how there are things that certainly we can do on the regulatory side to make sure that that fairness and transparency holds true right but yeah yeah most of us on chain um some of the token unlocks and like actual token uh metrics not metrics like tokenomics have been um I know there's a lot of room to improve there absolutely definitely improve um it seems to be getting a lot better but

um like defy llamas the amount of data that the phylamas put together is pretty like incredible yeah they now have a vesting tab which you know it's not perfect but at least it's a great step to illustrate that yeah it's a good start um yeah yeah there's a big disconnect from like reality and like what these like what people see yeah well this has been a fascinating discussion I mean it's just so interesting to get into your brain as someone who you know I followed on Twitter but just getting to know the person behind the the profile as we think about wrapping this up I just want to ask it like one or two questions one like um how optimistic are you relative to

like six months ago relative to last cycle like if you were to on a scale of one to ten how do you where do you stand right now in terms of state of the industry and how excited you are about it I think it comes in ways where like things will be super interesting like this year where like there'll be some new like thing to do on chain and then it just stops all of a sudden um but I don't know it's um in like 2018 2019 people are always like clamoring for like an old season but like I feel like we'd never the All Seasons like never really stopped since like um D5 summer it was really crazy because like some of my friends made more money

this year than like almost in my 2021 from just like you know like the mean coins are like certain things they've done on chain which is just like really crazy because like you see everyone on Twitter of like it's over there's nothing going on and it just seems like there's always been a very big disconnect from like people uh just trading on exchanges versus like actually going out and using the stuff to like experience what's actually going on so for like my level of like I don't know I I try not to hold too like have like a strong opinion here it just kind of seems like whatever I think it

continues um but I think we've seen like the low I just don't know what other than like Finance getting absolutely like frozen website shutdown what could actually like send us back to those lives I'm kind of just like neutral of like there will be like certain narratives certain new things that pop up but it's not like go all in lever up and we're going to the Moon uh just kind of like wait and see what was that thing popped it yeah not that never know just yeah balanced tinkering and go airdrop farm and uh see like

um I also think like a lot of exchanges probably won't be listing tokens for like as hell as they did in the past so we'll have to see how that changes the market and I don't know maybe we go to like everyone's own chain it'll take a little bit but because the products aren't as good it's more expensive than trading them exchange um yep it's more expensive uh you can lose your money pretty easily but I think most of the opportunity will be in like on-chain stuff of any it could be any I have no idea what it could be tomorrow you know because I didn't really see like the Pepe stuff like I didn't see it going in a billion two billion dollars it's like a really

and say until like it really started going and I was like oh well I guess I missed that one well the one thing's for certain we're gonna buy nature of how fast this space moves You're Gonna Miss stuff but thing is I think just consistency and being patient and just curious I guess pays off yeah curiosity and like never being afraid never like being afraid to go try something or like kicking yourself and like oh I missed that one I should have that one's always been like the worst mindset because there's always something else that can go it's okay to miss things it's okay to like not catch everything but you just have to paying attention and like don't give up is like

how you can like do well I think Sage advice uh iceberget thanks so much for coming on it was a pleasure getting to know you and I think our listeners would appreciate that as well so great discussion really enjoyed it and thanks again for for taking the time thank you man [Music]