How to 10x your net worth this crypto cycle with Lark Davis

Transcript

how to 10x your net worth this cycle wouldn't it be nice to walk away from the cycle with real gains rather than roundt trip your bags and take another 80 to 90% loss in the bare Market in this episode we're going to give you the insights you need to allocate your Capital wisely and take profits at the top of this crypto cycle welcome to milk Road radio the easiest path to get smarter about crypto I'm KY rehead your host for today's show and at milk road we believe that onchain is the next online this is the opportunity and we're here to help you capitalize on it today I'm joined by none other than Lark Davis longtime investor in both public and private crypto markets as well as he has one of the largest audiences and reaches in crypto he's got more than 1.2 million

followers on Twitter over 500,000 subscribers on YouTube and a kick-ass newsletter called wealth Mastery with over 120,000 subscribers and it's always nice to get Lark's insights on the markets because he's a real OG in the space this is his third cycle uh in crypto and he sees these markets from so many different Les you know he's been a builder and educator in the crypto space for for many many years he's involved in both private and public markets as I as I suggested and so he just has a really good bird's eye view on really everything happening in the space so we get into a lot of different narratives into how he sets up his portfolio how he seeing the cycle uh how he's going to time this cycle and just a lot of really good insights to help you capitalize on this cycle as well now before we get

into this episode today's the last day for the milk Road radio competition to win free milk Ro swag and get free access to the milroad pro newsletter all you have to do to enter the competition is to follow And subscribe to this podcast on Apple podcast on Spotify on YouTube wherever you're listening and take a screenshot and then just upload it to Twitter and tagm Road daily once you do that you automatically enter the win uh and within this week actually we are going to notify the winners of some cool milk Road Sag as well as free access to the milk Road Pro newsletter and by the way this is also the last day to get 25% off the milk Road Pro newsletter uh so if you want to get actionable insights and advice to successfully navigate this crypto cycle

which really goes really well with this episode itself then sign up to Pro right now at 25% off and don't worry if you happen to win the free pro access in the draw we'll simply refund you so it's all good all right friends let's get into the episode Lark welcome to milk Road radio it's actually not your first time on this show first time branded as milro radio but not your first time as you've been on a couple times when it was PR previously web your Academy but welcome to the new milk Road radio excited to sit down and drink a glass of milk with you that should be a requirement Jay and I actually talked that should we drink milk every time we do a podcast but I don't know people don't really drink milk all that much anymore so it's not my thing I'm on the soy milk personally

but you know oh soy milk okay let's just move on the milk subject Mark we got lots to cover today I want to talk all things markets crypto markets we're going to talk all about the cycle where do you think we're at in the cycle what the cycle is going to be like we'll talk narratives we'll talk projects we're going to get real deep before we do that though I feel like an important thing to just to like to do is is zoom out real quick and just get an idea of one what is your sort of like thesis around investing in crypto and how does it fit in your overall portfolio assuming that you invest in something other than crypto maybe not I think a large percent of us are all crypto but that's fine and then just answer what is your time Horizon when you're investing in crypto

just so like everyone can have an idea of you know your sort of strategy here right so that's that's a big question there a lot to unpack there so the thesis of investing in crypto I think is pretty simple this is one of the most disruptive Technologies to come in a very very long time and that's what kept me in crypto when I first got in cryptos 2017 I quit my day job November 2017 bare Markets started two months later 2018 was a tough year and there were a lot of moments of Doubt but anytime I had a moment of doubt I just said to myself this is not going away bitcoin's not going away crypto's not going away this is going to be one of the biggest most impactful Technologies to hit the internet since the creation of the internet itself and now we have ai of

course which is massively impactful is going to go on to do huge things in everyone's lives as well but this is the financial layer of the internet we're talking about right here and the applications for it obviously are broad from simple payments store value to digital ownership via nfts to gaming currencies decentralized GPU networks and on and on and on the use cases right now that are coming out are wild and very exciting so the thesis is working out so far and it's only going to get bigger this is the thing crypto right now is a $2 trillion doll market cap that's a baby we're still less of a market cap than Microsoft or Google or Apple pretty sure those are over two trillion dollars right now so this is a very interesting thing we are very early

in this technology out you're not super early that this is something to keep in mind right now you're not super super early you're also not super late this cycle though could be one of the big ones where we really go ramp up the total amount of people in the market and everything happening here and mainstream adoptions we see big games kick off and of course Bitcoin ETFs and all these sorts of things so every new cycle has new catalysts but the thesis continues Mass adoption for cryptocurrencies is underway and we're still have a long way to go we have about four to 500 million people who have bought or used crypto most of those people of course are very casual don't do it very often we're going to see it become more of a part of everyday life as we continue through the cycles you know by 20 32s bull market

2033 whatever things will probably pretty crazy and pretty well established will be probably in tens of trillions by that point so this is the thesis of what you're investing in what I'm investing in when I look at crypto is and keeps me focused on the big goal in the market is where we're going where we've come where we're going the potential of the asset now time time this is an interesting one because different assets have different time factors there are things that I might get into and I'm looking at a quick flip maybe it's a couple weeks or a few months and that's fine I think a lot of people get stuck into positions that they're unable to sell and it's it's okay to do a flip in even in a bull market and I might sell something with the knowledge that you know what later

it's probably going to go up more but I don't care because I got the two three 4X whatever I wanted out of it now I'm going to take the cash do something else with it maybe take some money out of the market sacrilege I know but you're allowed to do that maybe move it into some new coins maybe push it up from high risk into lower risk coins so there's that that's sort of the shortest end of the spectrum excluding any sort of you know very short time frame trades or anything like that then there's stuff that you're looking at holding for the entire cycle so that's a lot of the positions that I'm in right now in terms of altcoin stuff holding most of that for the entire cycle but as history has largely proven to us and I know a lot of people are going to argue at this is

time is different things are fundamentally changing here for cryptocurrency markets and this is going to be the Super Cycle there will be no more giant Corrections etc etc etc well tell that to Facebook who had what a 70% correction in 2022 apparently there are still massive Corrections even for the biggest Tech compan companies in the world okay so markets can be irrational all the time and crypto is a very irrational place at the best of times so I would not count against irrationality human greed and human fear because those are the main factors that drive crypto in many ways obviously technological innovation very very strong and that keeps everything chugging along but in terms of these Wild Bull markets and crushing bare markets they're very

volatile because of this human element and the wild accessibility of cryptocurrencies the massive Le cage in the cryptocurrency markets that's so easily available to everyone so this makes everything a little bit crazier in crypto so for me a lot of the altcoins that I'm buying will be sold at the end of the cycle I don't see a strong case in holding many if any altcoins now some stuff like nfts for example if you have like you know some Grail nfts I don't have a crypto Punk but maybe I'll get one if I do well enough this cycle something like that you just buy it and hold it you're not that's not a flip right that's just a you want to have it kind of possession something like Bitcoin obviously you can hold that multicycle I've got Bitcoin I've been holding multicycle held it through

massive downturns obviously if you want to try and swing trade that you can but you don't have to there's tax implications when you do that and there's all sorts of things so you know these are all things you need to consider are you going to perfectly time the market because if you don't get out near the top and you sell 30 40% down for example for your Bitcoin and then you're trying to Reby the bottom the odds are really against you at that point you're going to make that even profitably done because remember you paid a huge percentage of taxes right now you're trying to perfectly buy the bottom and if you don't perfectly hit the bottom you're probably not going to really add that much more to your stack so for a lot of people who are not paying attention to the market who are

just casual investors that is a difficult strategy okay but so there's very few ass I just want to say there's very few assets that I think have a good potential for holding multicycle because the vast majority of them we probably just want to sell at the end of the cycle maybe re those positions later but vast majority want to try to probably get out the end of the cycle yeah makes complete sense so long-term bullish but only a couple assets that you're holding longterm for the most part anything in the alt section you're sort of playing the cycle kind of thing sounds correct yeah that's right I think for the most part I'll be selling the altcoin portfolio down at the end of the cycle I'm not sure I'll keep any of them to be honest I'm on the same page let's talk about these Cycles obviously crypto is

very cyclical in nature if you've been in crypto you can easily notice this even if you're not in crypto you probably notice this let's talk about this current cycle we had um you know a good runup in 2023 we've had a really good runup so far the beginning of 2024 to start things off obviously at all-time highs now and Bitcoin not many other assets at all-time highs any of the big ones anyway but Bitcoin is where do you think that we're at in this current cycle and also as you answer that maybe you can just explain what do you think drives these Cycles as well so what drives the Cycles largely of course liquidity in the markets obviously and we had big liquidity Global liquidity bottomed in October 2022 FTX collapsed a couple weeks later that signal the end

of the bare Market essentially which doesn't feel like it it's really weird but essentially if you really start to break it down the bare Market starts at the top and the bare Market finishes at the bottom yeah doesn't feel like it at the time right but that's realistically kind of what happens hindsight though it's not easy to spot obviously but liquidity really drives these markets and we've seen huge upticks in liquidity of course for cryptocurrencies risk appetites drive a lot of this Market crypto is not immune to macro situations either so this is all something you need to consider as an investor when you're looking at this space that we are definitely cycle driven we are very strongly connected with what's going on global liquidity markets risk attitudes

in the markets because look at what happened to tech stocks we we've moved largely along with those because people got back into a risk attitude right people went risk off for a while they sold tax stocks they sold crypto down risk on came back gone in early 2023 because of the AI boom and other factors and everything took off again then of course Very specifically for crypto we were lagging behind tech stocks for quite a while then black root comes announces the Bitcoin ETF play and everybody realizes because Bitcoin ETF been in application for a very long time a lot of companies been trying for a very long time to get them but when Black Rock came the game changed because it is Black Rock now okay so that's what drives markets now where are we in the cycles look I I tend to look at about

four approximate phases phase one is really the bottom of the bare Market that's kind of the the most pessimistic time and the hardest time for people to invest but obviously the highest highest Roi best risk reward time to invest and I was saying this on the channel when Bitcoin was 18 19 20K I was saying well guys what's what's the risk reward here okay coin's going to go much higher ethereum's going to go much higher you buy today what's your risk it's going to go down to the 20 3040 maybe 50% Max Max right worst casee scenario okay if you can hold through that then your upside is massive and if you don't buy and start averaging in at least at at these prices you're probably not going to buy lower either you're going to tell

yourself you're going to buy lower the problem is when prices go lower let's say you did get down to 10K like some people were calling for well guess what as soon as you get to 10K guess what everyone starts doing oh it's going to 3K now and the gold posts keep shifting which is why dollar cost averaging is so effective putting money in on these very pessimistic times there blood in the streets and all that kind of stuff so that's phase one phase two this is when sort of broad accumulation starts happening markets are recovering liquidity is coming back into the market people are started make money on stuff again which started happening in sort of early to mid 20 March 2023 Pepe came out and stuff like that people made a bunch of money on that so these start of ear early movers in the space started making

a lot of money people started getting interested in crypto again people started showing up again pessimism started to fade PTSD started to fade away a little bit accumulation was the name of the game at that time so the accumulation phase essentially lasts from then when we start to see this real change in sentiment to when we start hitting new highs so arguably we just entered into what I to see as phase three of the market where bitcoin's hit a new all-time high just barely but we're starting to hit back into price discover we're heading that direction ethereum still lagging of course a bit behind salana still a bit behind but we'll see these other major coins catching up as time moves on but we're starting to head in that direction so this is actually the phase where the biggest volatility happens the most money making happens and this really

lasts until what I like to think of phase four which is a very short period That's the get the heck out of the market before everything collapses phase and that's of course typified by all the usual signals we want to look for the social sentiment signals whether it be you know Thai magazine New York Times posting front page articles with H's getting hilariously with crypto coinbase app and number one or number two or three position of all downloaded apps stuff like this a lot of technical things you can look at as well P Cycle top indicator MV rvz score hitting in the pink box a lot of stuff like this there's a lot more we go into maybe we don't need to do it right now but that's the selling phase and the selling phase is actually shortest Maybe four to eight weeks Max two to three weeks is a real

sweet spot historically that's how it's played out maybe it's different this time of course famous last words but that's how things generally play out now phase three where we currently are you're going to see huge markups start to happen so a lot of people will have missed the best entries obviously right if you're just coming now you're just buying crypto today for the first time or you're just paying attention again for today you missed out on a lot of the best prices sorry but they're not going to go back down there you're not going to pick up you know chain link for five bucks anymore you're not going to pick up Bitcoin for 20K anymore it's just not what's happening right now maybe there's a Black Swan event that everything goes to but nobody can predict that okay so from what we can see in the market

structure-wise it's very very unlikely that you're going to get those kind of price points again however this is also a time when massive moneymaking happens because yes you can still buy fundamentally interesting coins that are going to have great potential yeah and you're not going to get a a 50x like you could have but you can still get a 10 or 20x which is not bad come on come on that's all right right not bad the one thing the one thing people need understand the crypto space is like the 10x is amazing it's not not bad but the problem is a lot of people in crypto haven't really invested outside of crypto even like a 20% increase should be like is really good but in crypto it's like what the markets aren't even moving oh I know my Gold's up like uh you know 20% this year I'm yeah let's

go but one thing I want to say as well about phase three is that it's the time in the market when very rapidly the risk reward scenario changes every dollar the prices go up is a more risk you're taking when you buy for less reward okay so that's something a lot of people need to understand and unfortunately the vast majority of people will actually enter in phase four which is literally the worst possible time to enter the highest risk time to enter and they basically just make themselves exit liquidity for everybody else who's been here if of course those people were remember to sell but during phase three there's lots of great opportunities still lots of great coins to buy lots of great gems to find lots of launches coming lots of airdrops to farm lots of defi coins to farm lots of hot ecosystem plays to find

lots of hot new token sales so there's lots of stuff Market gets very frothy huge volatility it's a great time for making money but we got to remember phase four will come if you don't sell that's the problem phe four is when everyone's the most euphoric and it feels like the time where you want to put the most money in and this you see it all the time this is when all your friends start to come back in and they want to like put everything they have into it and oftentimes people are like it's the hardest time to sell even though it's the time where it makes the most sense but hopefully people can wrap their heads around that let's talk about this cycle a little bit further so you think we're in phase three not the time to sell yet but maybe eventually or soon

the time to start thinking about taking profits still a lot of Roi to be made here at this point how do you think this cycle plays out you talked a little bit about a super cycle before you said that's definitely not the case that doesn't happen in anything really a lot of people have mentioned like an accelerated cycle because the ETF seem we've run up so fast in Bitcoin are you on that side are you on just it's a normal cycle as per usual is it a super cycle like what do you thinking this time around it's very interesting obviously there's very compelling cases that can be made for all three accelerated fouryear in super cycle essentially if you really want to dive into it crypto has been in what is essentially a giant super cycle it's very very volatile one so it doesn't fit

the standard definition of what a super cycle is because we have these 70 80 90% draw Downs in a lot of assets across the crypto space so it doesn't feel like you're in a super cycle but the reality is if had you bought Bitcoin for basic except if you'd bought that like one week when it was at 73k but basically anybody who's ever bought Bitcoin in the past is in profit right now at the time of recording this video and that's pretty crazy to think about so prices just keep going up Fiat keeps being debased all that kind of stuff okay so that's one thing to keep in mind here but if you look at I think where the uh the overall trend is going and how the Market's rolling out I'm not super convinced right now by The Accelerated Cycle Theory I know people are going to

like well but you know it happened earlier we got a new Time new alltime high before the Bitcoin having yeah we did and that might lead to what I think could be a possible scenario which is a a double top scenario you might think a double top scenario that sounds ridiculous it's exactly what happened in 2021 and it's exactly what happened in 2013 where we have a huge rally Big Top maybe get to 90k maybe we get over 100k even that's where the first top for Bitcoin is and we talk about Bitcoin as the price indicator because it's where it's going to be a general indicator of where the whole Market's moving right it's an easy guide post for us so maybe we do that happens then we have a huge correction in the market like 30 40 50% correction the kind of Correction makes

everybody think it's over exactly like happened in 2021 exactly happened in 2023 2013 sorry not that I around 2013 investing in crypto but you can look back and you can see how the markets played out so that's I think a real potential scenario where we have this early top and then a much higher top 12 months later or something like that that's a real possibility but my intuition is telling me that until proven otherwise we are still in a four-year cycle maybe we get a double top scenario playing out but it's still a four-year cycle essentially where late 2024 2025 oh we're in 2024 now late 2025 you either are going to sell or that's going to be it and when that happens and here's the thing here's the thing people

need to remember when late 2025 comes assuming again we get a four-year Cycle Theory which I think is still the most compelling case for me personally I'm ready to be proven wrong and I will adapt my opinion based on what I'm seeing being in the markets I don't want to look at the market and see what I want to hear from the market I want to look at the market and see what's actually happening in the market so if I see the signals that markets are looking like things are getting pretty cooked and that could just be the first top signal it's hard to say well it's going to be a tough one to try to analyze later on but late 2025 I think it really becomes that situation where it's time to get out of the market and maybe I will midc curve it and we really are in

the Super Cycle and everything's just way more bullish and all these things that you're being told are going to come true but chances are it's just the Euphoria that's going to hit everybody and when Bitcoin gets up to I think we could go as high as maybe like 250k the 3.68 Fibonacci line brings us to 215k which is where we hit by the way at 3.68 last cycle so you pay attention to that again maybe we go slightly above it like we did last cycle and maybe get up to like 250k but the problem is at 250k people aren't going to be saying wow now Now's the Time to be responsible and book some profits now is going to be the time when everybody's saying this is the new paradigm of money you need to bet more go remortgage your house buy more Bitcoin go all in right now if

you're just getting here now is when you have to buy everything immediately highest risk time in the market okay so that's going to be the time to sell even though everyone the herd is telling you not to sell but only contrarians really make it in markets and you have to be a bit contrarian because the herd always loses I just read a book I think it was called boom and bust I can't remember but it was all about all the big hype cycles that we've had outside of crypto like it was talking since the I don't know 300 years ago there was one that happened with like Australian land and like I don't know all different ones and these Cycles are all just human psychology right we just get super greedy and we go through the same sort of motions every single time and so I

kind of the same I think we just have a similar cycle to what we've always had and really it's because of what you mentioned at the beginning which was these Cycles are controlled by liquidity so it doesn't really matter what happens in terms of like Innovation and things with crypto as soon as liquidity goes the opposite way and there's less money to be put in crypto that means there's less demand there's less people that can buy and so ultimately even if the Innovation still improves and we all think it's going to be the future there's just really no other option for it to go back down at that point and it seems these liquidity Cycles seem to be every four years so I'm kind of in the same boat that I think it's kind of the same as as all the other Cycles maybe we

have a top a double top maybe we don't doesn't really matter we always kind of have like a 50% dip in the middle of a cycle except for I think 2017 we didn't have one that was 50 but we had a 40% we had like a 41% dip so like close enough yeah one of the things I always try to think about though is like what is different cycle than the last one I mean the first one the obvious one is well we hit alltime highs before the having obviously the ETFs are different there's a big kind of unknown right now what's gonna happen with the eth ETF in about a month from now so like that could make some changes for us or make some differences any other things that are this cycle that you're just like yeah this is completely different than we've seen in any other cycle you know

what's interesting about the this time is different ideology is that this time is always different right history does not repeat right but the question is is how fundamentally different are things and the one factor as we just mentioned that never ever changes in markets is the investor human psychology and even like the big institutional funds most hedge funds underperform the S&P 500 because they're susceptible to the same stuff they're guys sitting behind desks clicking buttons they susceptible the same fear and greed they make the same mistakes on average so if hedge funds can't do it your average investor obviously struggles to try to win in those regards so look the hype Cycles are a very real part the entire scenario everything is happening here in the

cryptocurrency markets and I think it's important to pay attention to this whole human element in terms of how Cycles repeat and the way Cycles play out and all this sort of stuff so don't bet against people I mean bet against people but you know don't bet against people to not do what they're gonna do yeah yeah exactly it's the one thing that doesn't change that's for sure yeah all right let's talk about positioning then it sounds like whether we have a double top whether we don't you're thinking that the the ultimate top of this cycle anyway comes at some point in 2025 sounds like you're thinking maybe on the later half of 2025 but of course you think crypto doesn't end at the end of this cycle it continues as normal we just have these these Cycles you said alt probably going to sell or try to

sell at the top of the cycle or somewhere near it but there's certain assets you might hold whether that's Bitcoin maybe you had a crypto Punk these are things you just hold long term so let's talk about sort of positioning right now where you're at and maybe what you would change throughout the rest of the cycle or maybe something has to happen for you to change certain things can you walk us through sort of your your straty on that right now right now I am balls deep in altcoins balls deep in crypto really when it comes down to it I do invest in other asset classes for some reason I have some gold and silver for some reason anyway kind of like I kind of know I kind of liked it like I want to buy some of this stuff and I bought some it's fine sitting

there don't know I might turn into something different later but I have stocks I like stocks I like like dividend stocks for like renewable energy companies or whatever right there's lots of great renewable energy stocks that pay great dividends so I invest outside of crypto don't talk about that much and obviously a lot of great things in the tech world and there's a lot of great AI companies and all these things are going to reach wild valuations fantastic love it right now it's crypto season and very deep in crypto right now I've been increasing a lot my exposure to altcoins because the reality is it's quite funny even when Bitcoin moves up like 5 per everybody goes oh my gosh bitcoin's up 5 perc this so yes it is exciting but the best case scenario that I'm looking at right now for Bitcoin we go up to

250k okay that for the current price is 220 230% returns which is great for my Bitcoin stack that I have and I've been holding on to for a while realistically altcoins are going to outperform so dramatically in that scenario that that's where the big money is going to be made and that's always been the case in crypto well not always because guess you go back far enough in crypto there weren't really any altcoins to speak of but since there have been altcoins around certainly since the 2017 cycle when it was the big cycle for altcoins it has been the case so for me I'm very positioned in altcoins I've been repositioning to an extent looking at where the big hype is probably going to be for example the base ecosystem coinbase is Layer Two that's something I

think not to fade without a doubt because you start to look at the fundamentals of everybody that coinbase can bring on chain and the fact that it works that's a pretty big bonus salana salana come on salana will fix their problems I know it's easy to kick somebody when they're down people tend to love to do that when anything is struggling in crypto or anybody struggling the herd usually shows up to kick kick them while they're down that's a pretty popular thing to do unfortunately but my guess is that salana has enough brains and money behind it that they'll easily fix their problems quite soon and that salana will continue to be a major force in the market for the cycle it's really interesting to think about where most of the money is going to be made because I think there'll be a small section of

sectors that probably make 90% of the gains this cycle now that doesn't mean that you're not going to be able to money elsewhere it's just that most of the money will be made in certain places we're already starting to see that play out in real time the salon ecosystem the base ecosystem to a lesser extent right now we're seeing Avalanche has done really well and they've done through out some good meme coins I think some ones to definitely pay attention to be mantle mantle I think very under the radar it's like the layer two launched by bibit but they've actually done really good job at driving value to the MNT token which arbit arbitrum come on you've been on the market for like a year and a half and there's zero value for your token zero value why would anybody buy I buy

had it for a while and finally sold my bags it just wasn't ACR value right and if your token can't have a mechanism for acre value then you're going to be participating a governance well guess what you know who controls the governance the teams and the VCS unless you have a hundred million do you g go spend on buying tokens so you can make decisions on how arbitrum is governed if you are some crazy person and I guess you can go do that but most people just don't care so where values acre is very interesting look I would say four or five ecosystems will make 90% of the gains and then within certain sectors we're going to see again outsized gains versus other sectors simply because of the easy connectability of these ideas I think gaming hasn't really had its time

yet really in this cycle but as soon as we get one game that really takes off it's going to go crazy for the whole gaming sector it's a very accessible idea much in the way that I see mem coins meme coins why are mem coins popular because they're simple they're simple most investors are simple most investors buy when they buy stocks they buy stocks they know or they you know it's interesting the stock ticker symbols people will buy based on that sometime because it's almost like a meme of itself so that's a part of reality you have to look at where investors are not where you want investors to be but where investors actually are this is why memec coins are popular this is why gaming is going to be popular because it won't matter what the token does obviously the better tokens will acru

some kind of value and have in game mechanisms that actually give them some kind of runway for success but if people like a game they're going to buy the tokens which that simple we talked about a bunch of different narratives I mean gaming Bas salana Etc we'll we'll dive into more of those in a second but what matters more right now fundamentals because you said value AC cruel or is it pumpamentals or whatever you want to call it but like in a bull market does the value AC cruel really matter right now or is it more of the meme effect that truly matters in a bull market 100% hype hype and meme effect you know in the bare Market you invest in fundamentals in the bull market you invest in what has strength because here's the thing I I see this all the time people come and ask me like what do

you think about this thing and this thing and that thing and like nobody cares about it that's why I think about it and no and nobody else is talking about it either and there's a lot of great coins out there that nobody talks about they're fundamentally strong that's a blockchain that does all these exciting things or it's whatever nerdy that does all this exciting stuff nobody cares if nobody cares nobody's going to buy it and I see this all the time I I remember I was looking at this deck month ago or so something like that and I was reading through it and I was just like what is this crap what is this like I'm sure it's really interesting technology but you guys are such damn nerds you can't convey what you're actually talking about here in a simple way that humans can understand

like I do this full time and have no idea what you're talking about and so this is the thing is that easily accessible ideas hype narrative strength that's what matters in a bull market and you can try and fight that you can mid curve it if you want and say well actually that's blah blah blah blah nobody cares the market doesn't care look what the Market's actually choosing not what you want it to choose what it's actually choosing and it will tell you what is choosing we're seeing that right now and we'll see some of the narratives pop up but I think there's some narratives as well that I think are definitely going to be talked about but in certain ways like for example ethereum layer 2 ecosystem right great to farm great to farm I think huge potential for farming finia scroll zky

in particular Stark of course was a pretty disappointing airdrop for a lot of people but you know maybe these other three will turn out being really good the problem is is that I don't think any the ethereum layer 2 tokens are going to be really good Investments and people are going to buy them because they go oh look at the network metrics look they got all these users they have all this tvl blah blah blah yeah it doesn't mean the tokens a good investment good arbitrum they're governance tokens they don't actually acrew any value so that's something for example that will make a lot of money for early investors but will it continue to make money Beyond an error drop and letting VCS cash out probably not because it just won't have the strength to do that they'll have a bit of hype around the layer twos right

but you need a certain amount of fundamentals to back your hype not always obviously mem coins zero fundamentals 100% hype but when you come to sort of these if you want to look at something as a long-term sort of thing right so if if you want to have um big success for your token in the long term you need to have some kind of fundamentals to help back up the hype train because that'll add to the hype train you could look at for example Unis swap versus Jupiter very interesting example see Unis swap when they launched they were supposed to do fee sharing obviously they got scared by us Regulators understandable us Regulators are a nightmare so they' never turned it on they turned it on for themselves eventually which fine I get it you guys

should make money but they didn't turn it on for the token holders which was the original promise a lot of people would have bought in 2021 based on the promise that there was going to be f sharing because it kept being teased coming soon coming soon never came still being teased as potentially coming soon there was a proposal recently I don't know if anything happened with that but it failed to ACR value for token holders so there was hype in narrative in 2021 because of the potential for that but then reality hit the wall that they didn't never turn the switch on and now we see Unis swap still being one of the most the biggest and most important exchanges but the token doesn't do anything there's literally no reason for you to go and buy this token and then Jupiter Launches on salana X aggregator

technically but basically decentralized exchange with lots of great features etc etc and they also had a governance token but they decided let's actually make value ACR to the governance token and so that's what they did with you know big airdrops coming and sharing Launchpad fees and they have a whole incentives program etc etc so now if you actually are staking and and participating in the Jupiter governance protocol you're getting big rewards unlike Unis swap Unis swap could have done something like that but they never decided to so you have have to look fundamentals are important they're not valueless in a bare market and they will definitely help your narrative but without narrative fundamentals don't necessarily matter with narrative with strength

fundamentals can add that extra Rocket Fuel that can really see assets go crazy for a more sustainable Market cycle versus like a me yeah me coin can go from zero to a billion dollars in 24 hours how's that going to stay up in six months yeah it needs it needs a little bit of both for it to really for it to really do well my struggle with investing in alts like I I obviously do it but my struggle is always I can't get any conviction in just about any altcoin that I can't put any size into it and so like even if you get big gains it's not that meaningful to me so I I continue to just hold the ones that I'm like I know that this is going to do well this cycle eth salana it might not do the best like I'm sure if I got an AI token it's going

to do you know it has a chance of doing better but there's a million AI tokens you know and so I always struggle to like figure out how to allocate my Capital properly in the altcoins that I'm sort of eyeing because I can't seem to just like depart from my soul in my eth enough because I mean I use it to farm a bunch of points I'm making yield on it I know it's going to do well it's not going to get wrecked as much as all these alts are in the um in the bare Market what's your strategy when it comes to alts do you just sort of like take a hundred of them but put a little bit in and hope for the best or are you very particular or like what's your thought process around investing in alt sure AB absolutely so I like your

strategy by the way and don't don't knock your strategy because it's a decent strategy if you're using your Capital efficiently to farm air drops and stuff look at The Ether fight air drop it was huge right so and if you take your eth and deploy it efficiently into different protocols what do we have now we have ethery itself is offering like 30% right now which is pretty big pendle's doing good yields so there's lots of ways you can use that Capital very effectively and with it's insane it's insane it's insane so there's a lot of air drop potential out there for that and that's the whole skill of itself you can literally just be farming air drops and making truckloads of money right now using your existing capital or even doing it for free sometimes so there's definitely value in that strategy now when it comes

to actually buying altcoins it's a tricky one I tend not to add new altcoins on a very regular basis if anything I'm trying to continually Whittle down my portfolio to make it more efficient but every once in a while you see I don't know the the the light goes off my brain I go that's an obvious play I need to buy it uh Jupiter was such an example like well this is the biggest decentralized exchange on salana it's regularly doing more volume than Unis swap it has all these huge uh staking features and stuff like that it's going to go crazy as long as salana narrative continues so I bought a whole bunch of that around 50 60 cents added more as it went up a bit and it's been one of my best performing positions of this year so far actually so fantastic right the trick is finding the good

altcoin narratives can be a bit of a needle and Hast stack scenario sometimes so you really have to be I have been anyway I know maybe I should ape more but I've been trying to be a little more conservative with my Capital how I actually deploy it the decisions I make around deploying that capital I think is something it does take a bit of time because remember it's your money you work hard for you shouldn't just randomly throw it at everything you see in the market just because some content creator talked about something for a minute in their video or you saw a post on something whatever it might be you have to be careful guys this is your money so you have to actually do the work and wait because there will be those aha moments for you where you look and go crap that things really got great

potential it's going to take off so look for again great hype great strength in the market and in a lot of cases you'll actually find decent fundamentals behind that like render for example had a crazy Bull Run already probably has a lot of potential left lots of hype lots of narrative AI etc etc but also interesting fundamentals in the background big Partnerships all that kind of stuff so you kind of get both working together there it's interesting because that's public market right Public Market is one thing I think there's incredible opportunities right now in public markets for um investors when it comes to private Market investing which is you know getting into pre-sales and stuff like this or OTC deals I have maybe a bit more of an open approach because you're you're essentially investing in startups and

usually when tokens launch in the market for like Jupiter for example they years a track record already huge growth you can see what you're kind of getting yourself into when you invest in a pre-sale it's a little more like I hope that uh you will turn out with all your promises half the time it's true half the time it's not so it's problematic and obviously you try to find the best ones and all that stuff but I'm open to a bit more risk let's say versus Public Market investing with my private private Market investing but um it's also a very interesting space to invest in but it's not accessible of course to most people in the markets that harder to get into yeah for sure in a completely different strategy for sure how many assets would you say that you're holding right now across probably many wallets as well but

what do you what would you say your portfolio is right now I'm holding probably let me tell you did my count for the tax stand recently there are a total of about 46 assets but that that number is a bit it's a bit of a misrepresentation because it's like usdt but also usdc and those are two assets yeah yeah rapde ethery eth kelp eth Etc so those are all different assets technically right so that's something to consider or like yeah I've got like 10 salana or something like that which I don't even really count as an investment because just like use for screwing around on the salana network but I have to count that too so I would say total liquid Public Market coins invested in

right now are about probably about 20 20 or something in my portfolio approximately too many small than what I thought though but it is too many my thing is always like I try to consolidate the more assets you hold the harder it is for you to actually know the fundamentals and know you know what's going on token and so you end up you're more of a gamble at that point when you have 20 30 40 50 tokens which I know a lot of people do I always try to like get under 10 it's hard but otherwise just too much for your mind to figure out yeah you don't know you don't need to many things and there's there's some things that I have that are like um like I have some Celestia which is very specifically for like trying to get air drops and that's part of like the 10K to

100K challenge we're doing in the newsletter and stuff like that so like there's things like that that get counted too but they're not like you know big positions sort of thing then I think I'm invested in about probably 50 different pre-sales right now which is a lot obviously but and it's it's a lot of different time frames you know most this is the thing a lot of these things they're even like next cycle plays you know these it's again it's a whole different Market the private market and it's I know lot people like you're just G to make a bunch of money in the private Market yeah it's not always the case half these you know not half these but certainly some of these things won't even launch that's happened before or when they do launch they launch and they launch in the bar Market have no control

over this stuff right so it's a tricky Marketplace but I think there's a lot of great gems in there too and the the winners more the make up for the losers of course right yeah interesting in in your private markets and feel free to to expand this out to your public markets as well what were the narratives that you were typically investing in and I assume these Investments were probably much earlier in this cycle unless you're still doing a bunch of of private I'm not sure but what are the narratives that you're diving into it's interesting I've got I've got things I invested in in like 20 late 2021 early 2022 they're just now coming to market right so it's not it's not the easy game that everybody likes to point out to be all the time so it's there's been a lot of challenges in that and of course between

now and then then some companies have gone bankrupt right or they just didn't make it through the bare market for one reason or another but my main focus I think in this area has been on gaming and Defi and uh AI so a lot more AI pre a lot more AI plays recently of course a lot of AI stuff coming to Market everyone's trying to jump on that train there are some pretty good ones coming a lot of hype and too it's you know hard to sift through the reality sometimes what I haven't been investing in is like nft marketplaces and stuff like that I still see people trying to launch new nft marketplac and it's like man we already have like 50 of them and only two of them have any volume like what's the point and look I I think

those are interesting areas for me personally because I I feel like I I get them and I understand like I've done a lot of research into AI I get it right I've done a lot of research into gaming I get it defi it's interesting I don't think it's going to be quite as big this cycle as it was last cycle but I like it I like the idea of the money Legos and all this screwing around with stuff it's interesting for me there's some narratives though that I'm not really investing very much in like real world assets it's going to be big it's going to be great ah I just I'm struggling to like want to get into that narrative as well or like decentralized science like yeah you know I don't need to yeah I don't need to get into that as well or

decentralized social media haven't really gone down that rabbit hole either you know I think farcaster might finally be doing something worth paying attention to in the decentralized social media space but I don't know I just look back and when I look at the space right now and I'm investing I know everybody comes in like oh my gosh this thing decentralized social media it's the new paradigm of money and like come on guys we've been doing this since I've been doing all this stuff since 2017 I've seen literally every single one of these pitch decks before I've seen every single one of these projects before in some kind of iteration we've done decentralized social media non-stop for seven eight years now maybe now is finally the time when one of them's really going to take off but a lot of it's still just early experimentation and rotating what is it playing um like

duck duck goose or whatever rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic for a lot of these things like friend tech for example friend Tech hey cool fun idea but then suddenly it's goes downhill very very quickly when influencers suddenly figured out oh I can just go buy all my own tokens and everybody has to spend two e to be able to send me a DM it's craziness who can afford that crap you know so it's there's a lot of interesting experiments and I love experimentation but at the same time as I've said a long time with like social media particularly like maybe maybe warp cast or forecast or whatever they can break through and become a real powerful crypto-based social media app but for the most part you're going up against Amazon or Amazon Faceook Twitter Instagram biggest companies in the world and people don't tend to want to leave

their places especially not to come and like do crypto stuff so it could have a crypto native Vibe one of them will take off but you know it's not as easy as people think that's yeah it's a less exciting area for me to invest in I would say yeah although real world assets was number two out of all the the different sectors or narratives for q1 of 2024 in terms of performance mem coins number one this is according to coin gecko they put out a little thing but mem coins number one rwa tokens was number two I was like whoa really I think AI was third so there was some Alpha there there was some Alpha there all right as we um as we start to wrap up L question let's talk about the end of the cycle so as you said already you think probably the end of the end of

2025 somewhere around there what are the things that you're looking at the indicators whether these be you know you mentioned a few I think you said the pi signal the the mvrv things like that what are the things that you're looking for to go okay we're in phase four as you called it we are near the top it is time to start getting out of markets or getting out of the risk your assets like walk me through sort of your strategy around that sure so it's a combination of Social and Technical indicators right you can technical indicators are chart but also onchain so on chain sort of stuff is's a great website called look into bitcoin.com they have a lot of these great um charts for free every you can go look at them something like the net unrealized profit loss the nle when that gets at or near the pink box

that means the Market's pretty gosh overheated probably time to get out you can look at the long-term short term holder ratio for Bitcoin when that looks like a bottom like a big valley and it's just starting to Trend back up a little bit on the other side time to get out right that's historically been a pretty good time to get out of the market the MV rvz score just go look at the chart it's pretty simple when it's in the pink box or near the pink box time to get out of the markets again right just it just shows the extremes of the market the extreme ends of the market and so when historically that has happened that's a good time to book some profits in those are sort of more on chain things if we're looking at technical indicators there's a lot of interesting ones you

can look at of course you can sort of try and have a general projection versus the Fibonacci which for Bitcoin Fibonacci gives us around $215,000 might pump up to 250 as sort of the peak Peak right price but if you're getting out like 210 215 based on the Bonacci you're probably doing pretty okay by the way py cycle top indicator has basically again you can find that looking at bitcoin.com pcle top indicator has basically hit the peak prices uh within a few days of the past few Cycles so it's worth paying attention to will it perform again this time some people say no the ETFs is going to just distort it we shall see but it's worth paying attention to as an indicator when you're looking everything else so technical stuff loss of like

late things for example late signals that may say hey okay I didn't sell when all this other stuff was happening but maybe now I want to get out so obviously Fibonacci is great as an earlier indicator for where price could go BTC 215 e 15K sana's um around a thousand bucks for example but then okay you didn't pay attention to that ignored all that stuff well you can still get out later and still get most of your profits so if you look for for example the Bear Cross on the weekly macd that's an interesting one or if you look for a loss of of the 200 day EMA that's going to be a bit late right that happened around 45k or something in early 20202 for Bitcoin but selling at 45k probably

sounded like a really good idea in hindsight versus holding down to 15K right again you don't have to try you don't have to play that game but you can play that game and of course that was probably the last chance to sell altcoins at profits before they all went down another 90% so that's something to keep in mind those are later things though later signals when Bitcoin monthly R SII hits 90 that's definitely a signal markets are massively overheated you should be paying attention and consider booking some kind of uh profits in social factors come into play here as well I know we talked about the coinbase app but last few Cycles it has basically hit where it hits the number one position and then about 10 to 14 days later altcoin STP and then the bare Market begins essentially so that's worth paying

attention to if you also want to look for binance or crypto.com in the top 10 downloaded apps so this is basically Mass massive cryptomania massive Euphoria and maybe it doesn't repeat this time okay we always have to consider that maybe these things don't repeat this time but these are things that previously have allowed us to look at and say this is when the market tops are forming again social sentiment factors huge greed on the timeline huge Euphoria on the timeline people poting roll xes and stuff that they just bought people not influencer people people who already have money people who don't have money posting this kind of stuff okay because people influencers have money they're always buying this crap anyway we're talking about people who don't have money the old College friends calling up and saying hey can I buy dog coins what's a good dog coin that you

can recommend all this kind of stuff so it's a mix of social factors but the social factors are a good addition yeah to your thesis and a good guide and go look at the Wall Street cheat sheet look at the chart look at how the chart looks look at the emotional patterns people are going through and then really ask yourself you have to be honest with yourself and this is the hardest thing for investors to do is be honest with themselves and say to look at the market and go wow that's really what's happening again you have to be able to look at the market and see what's actually happening not what you want to be happening and that's hard to do I've fallen into that mistake before obviously right we when the top comes in you don't want to believe it's the top

you want to believe it's going to keep going forever you want to believe the super psycho Theory you want to believe that it's going to go to evaluation that's more insane than you can possibly think but chances are it's time to take profits and if you don't take your profits the market will take them for you there will be no orderly exit from this Market there's no guy standing there saying right this way everybody come over here and take your maximum profits possible no it doesn't work like that markets are chaos it's player versus player and if you don't sell if you don't sell here's the thing I have an insight into the future of everybody who doesn't sell their altcoins you'll be sitting when prices are down 99% in a Reddit group or a telegram somewhere the other five guys who didn't sell talking

about how it's such a big scam and everything and you know the guy who did sell that dude sailing away on a yacht with his wife and his kids in the Caribbean loving the bare Market because he took his profits you get to choose which of those people you're going to be most will by lack of making a choice will make the choice to be the guy the the bag holder the Community member in the bare Market you don't want to be that guy you want to be the guy sailing away on the odd okay you really do guys because it's true it's true it's true a lot of community members out there for a lot of coins that are never coming back man I think the one mistake people make trying to get the top is they actually try to hit the peak top it's like almost

no one hits the peak top you don't need to try to hit the peak top just get someone near the top or maybe you're past the top and you're on the way down like it's all good you know that Peak top that like 69k of Bitcoin last cycle was for like one day you know not even probably like literally you have literally like one person sold the perple top because that's how it works right it's not like everybody got to sell up there no like literally one person maybe sold up up that that exact Peak price so you have to keep this in mind guys you don't need to catch the exact bottom to buy and you don't need to catch the exact top to sell you have to just catch the meat of the move which is going to be in the middle actually

and here's another bit of advice for people you don't have to sell everything all at once this is what screws a lot of people up and actually if you start creating a habit of selling we're not you know quite at the start selling everything phase we probably have another six months where you can still get some pretty good deals in the market before really you have to change gears completely and say okay now it's selling time now I have to look at when do I start selling assets because you don't need to keep buying forever keep buying forever then you're buying the top and you're probably then Panic selling the bottom you don't don't want to do that you got probably another good six months left of really great opportunities of buying and then then it's going to start to change where you want to think okay

yeah I can still Farm some air drops get some token sales whatever there's still be stuff right but broadly speaking it's going to be late in the game for accumulating you need to flip the switch then start thinking about selling and you don't have to perfectly sell the top because you're not going to you need to disabuse yourself of that mentality because it's simply not going to happen for you you're not going to be the exception you're going to be the rule in the market you have to operate based on that assumption so make habit of selling and when you see a coin that's up in your portfolio 10 or 20x you know what rebalance a you don't have to sell the whole position maybe you sell 5% of that or 10% of that because now you're creating habit you're not a person who just holds your bags forever you're a

seller you create the identity if you're a person who sells and takes profit and makes money in this market and when you have a habit of selling and let me tell you let me tell you every time that I've sold anything at a profit it is a relief I feel good I feel good every time not just because I made the money but because I clicked the sell button and especially when you've completely exited position it just feels psychologically good right selling feels good so get over the fear of selling and get in tune with the joy of selling and create the habit of selling because selling is actually a really positive thing it's why you're here in the first place and a lot of people are going to look at that lifechanging money on the table and fail to change their life there's one thing I

could leave everybody with is that if you get to the situation in this market and a lot of you will more than you realize because markets will go crazier than you realize if you get into a position where you're sitting on life changing money for the love of God change your life don't round trip it don't don't watch it go down 99% become a Community member guys come on it's not worth it investing is like 80 90% at least psychology it's all about training your brain to not do the stupid thing and and just do the like doesn't have to be the smart thing honestly you don't have to be that smart to be successful in crypto especially in these Cycles you just got to the right thing but it's it's very hard to control your emotions control that psychology aspect if you can just study psychology and like learn

your own habits investing in crypto becomes so much so much easier but most people forget the psychology part right they do all the research they're studying coin Gecko and ta then they forget the psychology aspect but it's so important so great advice Lark we're we're running out of time here we could probably talk all day and get all the advice that you have up in your that brain of yours but we can't so first thank you for joining this was super super helpful I'm sure the audience is going to absolutely love this but I know the audience is going to want more and I don't have time to ask you more and more and more so where can those listening learn more about the things that you're teaching maybe some of the narratives that you're investing in some of the assets that you're investing in they want to get more from

you where can they go so the best place is to follow me just come over to X or YouTube look for Lark Davis verified accounts we have verified accounts make sure there's a lot fake accounts so watch oh my gosh it's wild and one with lots of followers too so like you really got to do your due diligence here when you're trying to follow alert yeah so go go go follow us over there on next or YouTube or come and find us at the newsletter the wealth mastery. where we can join along with all the insights and Alpha we're sharing every week over there too is a killer newsletter by the way I highly recommend you check it out it is very in depth and like if you want Alpha like you want to go down a narrative and then go really down a narrative the wealth Master newsletter

is the best one for that if you're a dgen if you really want to know what's going on in the space then I highly recommend it Lark thanks so much for joining us this was awesome it's great to have you on we'll have to get you back onto Milk radio again sometime soon thanks for having me thank thank you for listening to milk Road radio the easiest path to get smarter about crypto if you like this episode share it and hit subscribe or follow so you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free 5minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game then we'll leave a link to milk Road Pro as well your number one resource to help you invest

successfully in crypto one final note this podcast is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice crypto is risky so you should never invest more than you're willing to lose thank you friends and we'll see you in the next one