Hivemind: Does Bitcoin Have More Fuel to Run?

Transcript

And I'm just wondering like where does the fuel for higher come from if we've gotten all these really good headlines right now? Obviously in the short like the short term, right? Like I I I do think Bitcoin goes to new all-time highs in the back half of the year, but like at this point like I feel like we've kind of exhausted a lot of the really good fuel for higher. And I mean like we did go higher. We went from 74 to 95 in the span of a week and a half, two weeks, which is, you know, a a really strong move. Nothing said on the hive mind is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is strictly forformational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions, not financial advice.

[Music] Hello everybody and welcome back to another episode of the Hive My Podcast. Uh Jose is away today so I'm doing the intro of course I am Cedus, head of research at Deli. We are with Duncan, Flood Capital, um, whatever, altcoin, Gem Hunter, uh, Yan, uh, Deli Ventures, and Jason joining us from the research team. He leads markets, um, and he's been on the pod a few times.

So, yeah, I think getting into it, we'll just kind of start how we always do, talking about overall market vibes. It's Wednesday, April 30th, 10:38 Eastern time. Uh I think the markets kind of dumped this morning on that negative GDP print and then Navaro going on TV. Now it looks like they've rebounded a bit. Um but the like the the last couple weeks have been pretty good for crypto markets in general really. Um Bitcoin came back to like 95K. Uh I don't know. How are people feeling about like where we are right now? Trump tweeted this morning, "This is Biden's stock market." Yeah. And then there is

that meme of like, you know, Trump being like, "This is a good time to buy." And it's like the person smiling and then it's like Biden stock market and then it's like, "Oh no, what does that mean?" Is that foreshadowing something? Uh, I don't think so. I think it's more just trying to shift blame for the [Music] pain. GDP print is definitely Biden's administration. Like the the impacts of of kind of um tariffs wouldn't really have factored into this print that much.

Yeah, I feel like the markets rallied a lot. It's like almost back to um like levels pre-liberation day or like near then. But I don't feel like a ton of stuff has changed. I guess like that's the biggest other than like I guess like Trump admin seems more willing to make deals other than that. Like they they seem more eager to make deals. Alts haven't rebounded as much. It's definitely been a Bitcoin le Yeah. Bitcoin and like stocks aren't aren't down that much from from that level. I guess like the risk is because I've been watching like the the stuff like China's been putting out from like their state media channels and if they like want to

slow play things or are like not super gung-ho about making a deal instantly. I wonder if if they will like try and do that to to get leverage on on the US to make a better deal. I feel like that's like the big bear case. if like China actually has some say versus like everyone's just kind of assuming it's whatever Trump wants at this point, but I feel like he's pissed off the Chinese quite a bit and they're like state media propaganda videos are like we won't back down to a bully. It's like pretty explicit like we're not going to get pushed around by the US. So yeah, I don't

really know what's going to happen on that front. Do you think uh I don't know Jason, how do you think this Bitcoin like Bitcoin is up from Liberation Day? Yeah. Uh it's it's outperformed actually I think everything including gold from liberation day or maybe from inauguration day. Uh maybe not from liberation day. Liberation day it's like flat. Yeah, I guess. Well, I guess like the that uh wait liber No, no, no. Liberation day was Tuesday, right? August or August 2nd or April 2nd. Sorry. Jesus. So yeah, it's up from liberation day. Uh stocks are kind of almost back to where they were. Not not quite. They're still down a little bit.

Um yeah, it's it's definitely been the best performing asset. The only thing like I I'm like um like I'm like kind of like in like a weird spot right now after like all of this rally, right? Because you had Liberation Day on April 2nd. Um, right. Which kind of started off a whole lot of this and then since then we've had like quite a few, you know, decently good headlines going from right. You had like uh you had like a week or two where maybe like a week and a half where you had like just like a barrage of really good headlines. So you

had like a kind of like a softening stance on like the whole China trade deal, right? Like it went from like pretty much like [ __ ] China to uh we'll we'll you know we'll work a deal with them like you know we'll we'll find some common ground type of headlines. Uh you had that period of time where where Trump was you know coming out and saying he wants to fire Powell even though he's been saying that for you know a while now. Though you got you know you kind of got a bunch more of those headlines and then he kind of walked that back as well. um you started to see like the early parts of like trade deal negotiations with several countries like

India, Japan, things like that. Other countries have come out and said that that they you know are very willing to uh renegotiate trade deals um under this new type of you know tariff regime. Israel being one of them, you know, other countries as well. You had Paul Atkins confirmed as the uh SEC chair I think last week or maybe you know maybe the the end of the week prior and then you had things like like Caner Fitzgerald, SoftBank, that Tether partnership thing. Um you had a whole and then like yeah you had like just like a [ __ ] a shitload of really good type of headlines. um which then you know kind of blew shorts out of the water for the most part and then you

know Bitcoin climbed up above 90 to 95 and pretty much like since we got these headlines like I I tweeted this like you know something with all of that stuff in it uh on on April 22nd and pretty much since then like we've just kind of been sideways right because like the way I look at it is like like how many more really good headlines can you get without an actual resolution of some of these things, right? Because like at the end of the day, nothing has actually been resolved um with respect to these things. So that that's like the the part I'm most cautious about at this point, right?

Like we've had a really really nice run up in Bitcoin. You know, strong alts have done really really well. Things like Soul have, you know, performed pretty well off the bottom. Hype Fartcoin is up like, I don't know, three and a halfx or something off the bot, right? like you you you've just seen like a really good week or two in in in crypto names. Um and I'm just wondering like where does the fuel for higher come from if we've gotten all these really good headlines right now? Obviously in the short like the short term, right? Like I I I do think Bitcoin goes to new all-time highs in the back half of the year, but like at this point like I feel like we've kind of exhausted a lot of the really good fuel for

higher. And I mean like we did go higher. We went from 74 to 95 in the span of a week and a half, two weeks, which is, you know, a a really strong move. So I'm just kind of like wondering at this point, like what do you guys think? Like that's what I'm most cautious about. Like I wouldn't I wouldn't say I'm like super bearish. I think you know you could see some you could see some I guess like turbulence within you know trady markets, equity markets, things like that which could weigh on crypto obviously given you know correlations and and things like that. But um yeah, I'm just like kind of like at this point in the short term I'm just like a little bit I'm not I'm not like too sure at this point like where we go next. Like I

wouldn't be surprised if we go to 100 or if we go back down to, you know, 90 or or 88 or something as well. Like to me it seems like a a coin flip at this point given how much of like the good headlines we have exhausted in the last like week or two. Yeah. I mean I think the the the bullcase is so we've definitely seen a bit of a decoupling, right? Um it's been very pronounced, right? the fact that you just have less dollar flows into into US assets means when things get bullish, maybe they're not the most obvious horse. And so I think that was some element of of front running. And you know, Bitcoin typically frontuns risk on. And so there's always

this debate whether it's front running risk on or a true decoupling that's not necessarily, you know, based on the notion that that risk will come back. Um so initially when we saw the decoupling the the the confusion was always or the question was always is this sailor we we saw a couple times where it really wasn't right he announced uh low nine figure buys which relative to his standard pace is pretty low and and I think relative to the size of the market isn't going to move BTC up couple thousand bucks like it like it did move on those moves. So, um, granted, you did have some positive headlines, I think.

So, I'm I'm I'm somewhat bought into the decoupling idea, um, particularly with how well goals performed, right? So, you do have the setup there for a a more kind of macroled bid into BTC rather than it being like a pure riskon situation. I think the the other stuff, so you have, you know, Caner's play, right? That that's not just a headline. That's actually a lot of dry powder coming in. Um, so I I think right they're putting together this $3 billion vehicle. Um, I think it's one half billion worth of Tether worth of Bitcoin from Tether and then uh SoftBank's putting in 900 million bucks. Bitfinex is putting in 600 and then they're issuing shares at a at a valuation of

80K5 of Bitcoin, right? And so you're you're starting at a at a pre flat premium and the idea is they're kind of going to run the same playbook with with uh converts and that's a lot of of dry powder, right? And I think you're seeing some of these other treasury plays start to happen now. And and sure, you know, you can argue this is is kind of bubble territory, but you know, I think it does create a bubble, but but further down the line, right? The the buying has to take place first, and this is a pretty material amount. And so I I imagine um there's going to be a pretty consistent bid hopefully from there. So

there there hasn't really been any confirmation in terms of whether those guys started deploying yet. So it's it's hard to, you know, attribute any of the performance to them. Obviously, we we hope they haven't, but um I thought that they they had bought their Bitcoin at like 85K or Well, they contributed to it. They contributed the cash and issued shares. Yeah. At 85 is like the the the the premium or the the the the market cap to NEV. Um so there's that. I think Soul probably is is in a pretty good situation, right, with all these treasury plays and especially when you consider the the notional Soul Strategies is doing like a billion dollar vehicle. Um, uh, Upexy is one that, you know, disclosure we're

investors in that, but they're going to be doing a large vehicle. And so you're the the amount like that's that quantum isn't that much less than what some of these guys are doing for Bitcoin, but like it'll move the soul market quite a bit more, right? So, I don't necessarily know if that's been priced in. Um, I I don't think it has because those vehicles have just started. And so, yes, you could say there's definitely going to be some front running, but that buying still has to take place. And and those vehicles are an interesting spot where they can um start their flywheel in a in a in the in the in a more compelling way in the sense that they can buy locked soul, right? You can't really buy locked Bitcoin at a discount or locked ETH at a discount, but you can buy locked soul at a discount because

the FTX auctions. So, you know, for simple math, if you have a hundred bucks and you buy soul at a 50% discount, the the market will price it at par, right? So, now you have a hundred you bought $200 worth of you spent $100 to buy soul, it's now worth 200 on your book, even though it's locked. And then the the premium to nav is applied to that larger base. So, I think the flywheel there can definitely get going and and and really drive a bit for soul. Then the question becomes, is soul the best way to to play uh a soul rally or is it just kind of longtail memes?

Yeah, I do think uh I don't know on the topic of soul, I still just feel like that is the cleanest non- Bitcoin play for the entire cycle. Um, obviously stuff will outperform it, but it just feels like they're just right in the entire direction they've gone in. Um, yesterday the EF has like officially pivoted to I mean, I don't know how much of a pivot is, but there's there's like a lot of changes going on. They're they're they're finally going to scale the L1.

Um they are obviously going to like scale blobs and stuff too. Uh I think I'm in I'm just really interested curious to see where like Ethereum goes from here and then if they actually do scale the L1 somewhat meaningfully. Uh like some people were critiquing this and being like oh you're kind of like rugging the rollup road map now. Uh you know rollups need to compete for the L1 for like developers and stuff. And it's like, yeah, that's all true. Um, wait, so how much faster do you think the only one's going to be? They want to scale it 100x over the course of five, four years, uh, which can get them to like, I think, two 3k TPS or something.

It's still not going to compete with the high throughput chains, but it'll be it'll definitely keep more liquidity there. It'll basically kill a bunch of the more longer tail rollups. Um, you know, there's still going to be stuff like mega ETH that obviously will always be able to do way more throughput than Ethereum. Like the rollups will even just like the optimistic roll-ups will still be like more performant than Ethereum.

Um, but yeah, just overall keeping more liquidity on L1 like a refocus on the L1. Is 40 is four to five years too long to or is or you It's pretty long too, right? Atrophying liquidity and activity. The thing is it's like four years and then the goal again is like that 2 3k TPS in four years like that doesn't seem like it'll be enough. Anyways, I really just feel like Ethereum is in a weird spot and has been in a weird spot for a long time. Um, and I just don't want to [ __ ] on everything they're doing because I do think that a lot of people in the community like do believe like they're building a good

thing. That's and you know I I respect that. It's just like I really don't know like what the right move is for them. I think they should have done this a few years ago. Um, you know, I think it's better to course correct at some point and realize because scaling the L1 is still helpful to the rollup road map too. Uh, especially if you get like shorter block times, you know, if you get like single like explain that a bit more. Yeah. Yeah. So like one thing now is Ethereum has this like hybrid kind of like consensus mechanism with like it uh it finalizes after like two EBOs which is what it's like 12 or it's it's pretty

long. You'll notice this when you deposit assets to exchanges right if you deposit from Ethereum it takes a while. If you deposit from Salana, it's quick. Like SW is quick, right? Avalanche is quick, right? A Cosmos like instant. Anything with like single snot finality because there's no going back. And so this is very this is hard when you have this whole rollup ecosystem when you're doing all these like cross interop rollup transactions and you need to wait for like Ethereum mainet to actually finalize to kind of like legitimize each side each rollup, right? And so the way it kind of works today is that you have solvers and like market makers just fronting liquidity and taking that small risk or whatever, right? But if you get

single soft finality and shorter block times, then you can do uh it's much easier to do all this like crosschain cross roll up interoperability stuff because it's like fairly instant uh on mainet, right? Um, and so that's something that they're also I saw Dankrad, Dankrad seems to be the one leading this from the Ethereum side. Um, but I don't know, there's just been so many it's like they they had this thing EOF that they're working on for like Ethereum object format, which is totally going to change the EVM for a few years. and they just it was supposed to go live in the next uh the next hard fork and they just took

it out after like a few years of development and it's the right move to take it out, right? But I think there's also kind of like an issue there on why does something get worked on for like two three years and then people don't realize that it's a bad idea until it's literally about to be implemented right um so I don't know like I just I just don't know it's still like it's not cheap right that's the thing that you always need to come back to um and like Wall Wall Street institutional investors. I mean, I was listening to a podcast with the black the Black Rockck

lady the other day, too. It's like they have a bucket for Bitcoin, right? They don't want another monetary crypto asset. Like they don't they decide on one. That's how like social consensus kind of forms. Um, and Bitcoin is a macro asset and none of these other chain all these other chains have to like have another reason why people buy it. uh and why their native token is valuable. Um and you're seeing it with things that you know it's like I'm I I like taking a shot on like Celestia here. I like less than three bill but they have a lot to prove and they're not going to that token is not going to turn around

until people start believing that there's a path to like significant revenue for TIA at some point, right? um because it's still you have to like there's so many things that have to go right for them right now to actually see that play out right and so the market is taking a more of in the past I think people would bid narratives very easily uh without thinking much without thinking too critically and I think now people are more in tune with like you know you look at the a lot of these recent launches too for L1's and are launching like around last private rounds, right? They're not launching at like a year ago, Dimension and Saiga

both launched at like 57 bill FTV, okay? They're both trading at like 200 mil FTV today, okay? Over just over a year. You're not seeing these projects launch at these crazy FTVs anymore. I'm really interested to see what monad like in disclosure angel investor monad but if they launched a year ago I'm pretty sure they would have launched at like 20 bill FTV or something like 10 to 20 right like what do they launch at now I think that'll be a big tell on how much the market has changed and I think it is probably healthy for the market because it's healthier for retail right um it's it's you know a lot of people always try and optimize for having this

very high TGE launch valuation because you know you're richer on paper, you're you're native token, use it for like grants or whatever, you can spend more. Um, but all of these like launches from the past few years just have the most horrific charts and it's just like demoralizing and crushing. Um and so I think that you know these new projects launching at more reasonable valuations I think is a good thing and you can actually have you know you need you need people in the public market to do well.

Um and I actually think this is like the ideal market for liquid traders now. Um cuz you you can just avoid like pretty much 95% of [ __ ] out there. Um but I still think there's like pretty good upside in a lot of some of these liquid tokens. Um yeah, I don't know. I don't know how other people feel about all this. I kind of ranted there. Yeah. Well, I feel like that had to happen, right? Like stuff was insane. Like stuff made absolutely no sense a year ago. So, at least now it's starting to make more sense, like launching at more reasonable valuations, but still a lot of these

things like don't make money. And like you can call it reasonable versus what it was a year ago, but is it like would someone non-crypto buy this business? Probably not. Yeah, it still might be like they still might be too high, right? But it's getting the closer it is to zero, the closer it is to fair valuation, right? Definitely improving. Yeah. Uh do you think with like a lot of the meme stuff dying off on Salana, it's going to affect like how excited people are about it in terms of like a lot of the stats were from all this meme activity that's like fallen off quite a bit. Uh I think

yeah but like if you look at Salana if you look at just uh rev across all chains it's come down a lot and including on salon it's come down a lot like if you look at salon in isolation but if you look at all the chains salon is still doing 50% of total industry RV it's just kind of like as the speculation comes down what is the chain that people were doing the most speculation on at Salana it's not like it's moved to, you know, a lot of people had this theory that when memecoin trading died, Salana would like self-implode um in like a reflexive loop, but it's kind of like, well, these people didn't go do something else somewhere else.

They just like stopped trading in general really. Um, and you can say some activity probably went to hyperlid and stuff too, right? some trading activity. But I think for the most part, I think Salana DeFi, honestly, it is starting to like you're starting to see more DeFi stuff, you know, a bunch of yield trading stuff. Um, I think more people are like market making on Salana. Um, there was something from Natash from Dflow the other day about how many market makers are like using Salana without incentives, right? just market making on there because they can be profitable and that is a very good sign when you just naturally that's like a

good place to be and the reason why I still just believe high throughput chains are where you're going has to do with like market making in general too right like you need to carry your inventory somewhere and this has always been the hard thing with the app chain thesis to me is like you cannot just carry inventory on a million different like app chains and stuff, it's so much easier to just carry it on like Ethereum L1 or on Salana or maybe you're going to carry some on base, right? And uh yeah, I still think Yeah, I don't know. I still think that Salana is like the winner architecture right now. If you look at like the the universe of

investors, they're all, you know, they're buying for a variety of reasons. I think the the portion of them that are buying Salana for the fundamental like the the pure, you know, multiple fundamental value is pretty small. Um, it's certainly there. So, you know, as as the as the meme coin situation fades, you might lose some of that bid, but I think you probably gain more. There's still, you know, the people that want to allocate it to the space and and and want to be part of it. And so I think what you lose on that front is more than offset by the just general consensus around Salana kind of eating ETH's lunch on a longer time horizon. I think that

just kind of happens more and more and I think the amount of kind of money that would shift over from one to the other is is more than the the the the bid that comes in to take advantage of potentially increased staking yields when when activity is higher. Um and then you have the the treasury the equity treasury plays also creating a bid and so I think the the narrative around it becomes quite a bit stronger and and you know what what helps during washouts is that um you have a kind of a reconentration around quality and so it becomes a bit of an easier market to invest in because you're not things aren't pumping randomly that in in a way that you can reason and position And

right like you can kind of relate or and rely more on kind a bit more rational investing which makes the uh investing side easier and hopefully brings in capital. Yeah, I think you can definitely feel more confident about like allocating to Salana long term. At the at the same time though, it's like Salana now is again getting up to a pretty big valuation where it's like hard to move. And what's the FTV right now? It's it's it's under 100, but it's like bumping up on 100. And I think, you know, Ethereum, I really believe Ethereum was a victim of

its own success in a way because it got to such an insane valuation last bull market which was driven by what? It was mostly driven by NFTts, right? If you really think about it, NFTTS were like DeFi summer kicked stuff off. Yes. And all that got people excited, new primitives, all this stuff, very good, innovative, blah blah blah. But then ETH like really started pumping because of the whole NFT narrative. And then NFTs, if you remember when people were minting these things, they're paying like one, two, three, four, 5K in gas fees like just to mint stuff, right? And so this then went with the loop of like it being very deflationary and then you know you have board apes going from like whatever it was to over 100 ETH like floor price

half a million dollars, right? Just like stupid insane speculative activity. Um, and this just made ETH get so highly valued. And when they got to that point, it was like, you know, the it was it was hard to justify be beyond it being like this money asset, right? And so that's why they went more and more into this like we're money and all this stuff because how do you really get it when you get to that high of a valuation? Like how do you actually have this keep moving this thing higher and higher, right? And I think that maybe influenced the road map and stuff too in a negative direction. Um and over the last few

years the market has kind of just been coming to reality to the reality of that. Um and you know now Salana is getting to and Salana didn't go up because of NFTTS or anything. It did go up because people, you know, the meme coins and people saw the increasing like fundamentals. But again, it's uh um I know that there's a lot of people out there that believe in these like multi-trillion dollar platforms and Duncan just dropped off again for the second time.

Um but uh dude, you gotta maybe return that computer, get your old one back. Yeah. Um, but uh I don't know. Are these smart contract L1 tokens going to be like a couple trillion dollars? Can they actually get there? It's it's just a lot to ask for. Yeah, you need a lot more activity to move on chain. Um, yeah, it's tricky and they need to scale. Like you literally, if you do the math, it's like Salana actually has to hit these million TPS type metrics. And if you then if you add in, you know, um if you do think Jesus, Duncan, if if uh if you do think that like, you know,

stuff like app specific sequencing and apps are going to start to capture more of their MEV, then that's also uh takes away a bit from the L1 economics. Um so yeah. Yeah. and and like the the reflexivity on the with ETH NFTts is was much larger than I think uh soul memes um because it's like oneway flow it just ETH oneway flow here you know you had trading in and out you have people cashing out there's much more GD and then you also had pump fund dumping a whole lot of soul every so often on all the fees yeah which makes me feel better about the salon a bit overall

uh as like a long-term structural bid. It will be interesting to see when Salani gets an actual ETF U because obviously the Ethereum ETF was quite disappointing. I think these treasury companies are better than an ETF. Well, they're better than an ETF if they trade like close to NAV. I don't know if they're better. They're better for Salana price. For salana price. They're better for Salana price. Yeah. I think that I think they're going to flip to a discount eventually. Like there's so many of them. There's going to be so many of them.

Yeah. I mean, there's there's the Soul Strategies one, there's the Janover one, there's the I don't know the upx right. There's going to be more like if everyone's going to start this is this is just gives me like GBTC flashbacks super hard. Like different mechanism, but yeah. I mean, yeah, but it's like same same reflexivity, I think. Well, so the thing is it's yeah, the reflexivity gets worse uh as more join because um it's the late joiners that so basically when they go at a discount, what do you do? You sell soul and and buy shares, right? And so it's the do

that well the late joiner. So, if you only had if you only had early joiners, then it's it's less of a thing because they get in at a lower price and and and things could run up and and it it it gets less kind of insane. But it's the late joiners who, you know, get in towards the end of the cycle and then they're going to have to be the first sellers and that exacerbates the move on the way down and then I think that's where you can have like a big negative move. Yeah. But do you think they'll even sell? Like do you think like so will ever sell Bitcoin to buy micro strategy? No. But I I think the the soul ones will be more nimble and strategic. Um because they they won't spook the market as much individually.

We'll see what happens if they all follow the strategy though. But what if if they're buying lock soul then? Yeah, but you wouldn't you you'd also have plenty of unlock soul. Like there's only so much lock soul. It's more of a an initial bootstrapping mechanism than it is like a a viable long-term strategy because there's only so much of it and and it's probably going to be pretty crazy for a little bit and then like go the other way is my guess. Yeah. So, I think like the the benefit of these structures is that um one of the hard things about getting for instance an Ethereum staking ETF is that you always need liquid ETH for redemptions, right, with an ETF. And Ethereum has a pretty complicated uh like unstaking queue process. And so even if you got an

Ethereum staking ETF, you would only be able to stake like I don't even know, probably not even half of it. It depends like what kind of what your and so then your staking yield on the ETF is cut in half right there, right? Because you're only staking half the funds. The benefit of these things is that you can just stake the entire amount and then also you don't have to stake through an institutional custodian investor that like takes a fee. You can also just stake it yourself, right? So that's kind of the benefit of it is that you can get the full yield and like with no commissions. But again, that that kind of that benefit goes away if they trade at crazy premiums, unless you just think it's

going to stay at a premium. Um, but you know, if that compresses, but it's like how many of these do like need to exist in order for there not to be a premium, right? It's like Well, it's less so about the number of them. It's it's more so just kind of broader. If if like the broader market's rallying then these will keep doing well. It's like when there's a downturn. Yeah. How many? Yeah. The thing is you can buy even as like an American or like you can you can actually buy a spot salon ETF right now in US dollars. It's just listed on the TSX. But like if you actually wanted spot USD salon exposure, you could. Uh but people are going to

buy these things instead still, right? because it's like has this speculative kind of like game in it. Um, and it's, you know, it's like people buy the triple levered cues instead of the Q's, right? It's also just the the the debt markets getting access to this stuff and that's what gets the flywheel going through the converts. I saw an interesting tweet from Will uh Clement about he just said like now with you know Micro Strategy you have like the levered ETFs you have like options on IBIT you have you know Coinbase Hood like all these different ways to get kind of like leverage or beta to crypto he's like I think and now all these like

new Salana vehicles um he's like I think this is going to take away the demand for like some of like the stupider alts it's like why wouldn't you just like you know buy options on Micro Strategy or buy like the 2x long international market. Yeah. So, so that's I guess yeah take away US demand but maybe not global. I was going to say like is the buyer of these things the same as the buyer for Fartcoin or what? No. Like they're just different buyers. Yeah. It's just like an interesting like as there's like more ways to speculate and get leverage through like the historically better performing assets. Do you think that's going to take because like I guess like the big argument with people like don't

want to buy Bitcoin is like oh it's only can only like double or something but I guess I think like the the the I think the the the memecoin community is mostly probably 20s and some early 30s, right? and and they don't think they're gonna make it on a 2x on BTC gamble to make it is much more attractive using option like Robin Hood like uh lists like burps or something like Robin Hood starts doing burps. Anyways, it's just interesting.

I think uh on Robin Hood I think Robin Hood is gonna become the big like the big winner out of all the centralized cryptos. Sounds like people hate Coinbase. Like all I see on Twitter is people [ __ ] dunking on Coinbase. Yeah, I think Kraken's been doing good moves, too. Uh but Robin Hood obviously already has like the way bigger distribution and everything. Um and they bought that uh what was it? Bit them or something. They bought some exchange a while ago like in 2024, I forget.

Yeah. So what do you think is going to be the best way to So if if you know we get these things launching on Soul and and Soul makes a move over 200 right from just the buying and the anticipation of the buying and and those the premiums being there and then then it would raise more like what is the is it levered soul is it fartcoin or popcoin or popcat I mean I feel it feels like it's the latter of the two like yes you had so like so basically the risk is you you know soul runs and and they don't the only time we really had that was on Trumpcoin and that was just purely because people were piling cash into the soul ecosystem to

buy Trump right so I think that that was a pretty isolated event where and broadly when when you had soul do well soul meme beta did very All yeah, I mean I I I don't know what would change, right? Like it's always been that way, right? So like if if you expect Soul like it doesn't matter like at any I think you really have to nail the timing on it. You just have to nail the timing on it because like look at all these other ones like all the memes have gotten super crushed. Like maybe they'll have like a really that's good, right?

Like that's the setup you want. Yeah. I mean like if you expect soul to go to like 200 or like it it's the same it's the exact same kind of like rationale or or thesis or whatever that you would have had like in at the end of like 2023 into 2024 is like if you expect crypto to go up and you think soul is going to be one of the one of the eos that has the most attention and most stuff going on like and and you want to make as much money as possible and you don't really care too much about the the risk for the volatility associated, right? Like you just move further down the risk curve and like it's always going to be the thing in crypto at

least at least now, right? Like maybe in a couple years that changes, but like yeah, like I mean I think Soul's very good. Like I mean I have a big, you know, percentage of the PA in Soul and it will stay in Soul. Um, but like I I think yeah, I I don't know which which memes or agents or AI things will do the best, but like I know the winner or the couple big winners will probably come from those buckets of names. Um, but we're going to remember to sell this time. Yeah, we're gonna we're gonna back at the Pico Top this time. The dogs are gonna get sold, right? Uh we we sold

some of the dogs at the top and then mostly on the on the way down. Yeah, that's easier holding soul. Like there's a lot of like salon restaking stuff that I feel like is a nice little way to kind of juice like your soul return if you don't want to buy memes and stuff. Um what are like the AP? This is how you juice your soul return. 2x long soul per just 2x. Well, no, there's like for instance, you can there's like fixed you can buy like the fixed uh PT tokens like whatever 18 19%. Um, you know, it's like pretty good. And then you can also farm like the protocols involved with all this.

Um, you know, none of the restaking protocols on Salana have their own tokens yet. None of the yield trading things have tokens. Uh there's like a lot of new protocols that have kind of popped up around Solana restaking and so um yeah to me that feels like a lower risk obviously. I mean actually I don't know if it's lower risk because you're taking a lot of smart contract risk doing all that versus just like holding a meme coin, right? Um but that kind of seems what it is. is it's like reststaking and then what memes those are like the most interesting areas I mean right of like if you go on Deli's website to like the sector performance dashboard and you

just like look at it over the last like 60 days like the the three buckets that have done the best is um agents platforms and memes uh I know it's like I feel like you need to adjust and over the last 30 days. It's agents, platforms, and memes. Yeah, the agent the platform frameworks are getting a bit of a bit but gotten so crushed or since just Jan one like that's just sure at the pico top you can't I don't think anchored to the bottom right like to the bottom like what has performed best out of the bottom. Oh yeah. If you're buying everything in the I feel

like there has to be some sort of like risk risk weighted performance or something for those keynote ratio. Well, we're we're talking about what's going to outperform if sold does if sold does well. Yeah. Right. Like if if if the base case is sold goes to 250 or 300 or whatever it is, right? Like obviously I think everybody should own soul if that's what you think happens. Like that's a very obvious given. But like if you were to take some percentage of that soul, what about like Radium? Radium's gotten crushed. Radium lost part of their uh honeypot. Their market is like Yeah.

completely different. Yeah. Or Jupiter. What's Jupiter at? Or GTO. I mean, hey man, even even uh Zero Bro pumped like 3x on the bottom and then it looked like its tweets were trained on Kanye or something and or the dev was just tweeting. I have no idea. Yeah, dev was definitely tweeting. Well, wasn't that like some short squeeze or something? I think I saw there were definitely shorts getting squeezed. Yeah, the oi was bigger than maric cap. Yeah. Yeah. Anyways, um I mean the the other one is is like is hype, right? I mean I mean Tao has actually been getting a bit too. Yeah, sweet how and sweet tow and hype have been Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, the

towel stuff is I mean I know they have a having uh over the summer but like the emissions are just still hard for me to to to get comfortable behind. Maybe that's somebody else's opportunity but like Hyperlid's doing like 500 mill and then these other two are doing [ __ ] inflating. I was seeing they people were talking about them like all uh altering the the fee the fees on on on maker orders. Is that that's in effect now? Well, they basically just did a blanket 30% raise across everything, but then if you stake hype, you get a discount. So, like you can actually make it cheaper than it was before if you stype, but like it was already super super competitive on fees. So, I don't think I

think it's probably boost their revenue by like 10 20%. I mean, it's that's still meaningful, right? Like that's for sure. Yeah, it moves the needle. um because I don't think people care that much and are optimizing for basically your bigger competition is is people are farming some of these other these other like right because that actually the needle but then like I think you could have some big whales like actually go and buy I think the the top tier is like 500,000 hype uh so that's like 10 million or something if you're like a market maker and you could like you know maybe hedge that out but that that gives you like a I think it's a 40% reduction in fees So that could definitely And they also launch there's like a new season of

points. Yeah. So kind of indicating that there's going to be I mean there's isn't page there's more hype been running it while we're while we tried to short Bitcoin. Jason, I was going to say isn't aren't the rewards or at least like the hype set aside for uh for like community rewards and incentives. Isn't it like there's still more than was initially given out at TGE? Yeah. So like with Yeah. I would imagine people are probably going to continue like farming or using Hyperlid even even with all of these other uh you know potential you know decks airdrop things like Oium Lighter. Uh there's a

couple other that couple others that I was looking at because we've gone from Mike. All right, I'm gonna trade here to get a direct token incentive. Then it was I'm gonna trade here to get points. Now it's just like I'll trade here because maybe I'm getting points in the background just keeps moving further away, which is which is actually like economically efficient for the protocol itself. I was going to say it's great for them, but they've definitely reached like enough volume where I don't think the main reason people are trading there are for incentives. No, at all. It's just because it's like the best place to trade and like if you look at like the performance of things outside of you know those three buckets that I I talked about before like just like in like it's very clear that like the the two big

winners are like from like I guess you could like majors um is probably Sue and and and hype in terms of most recent price action over the last like month or so like it's those are the very clear outliers in terms of relative strength. strength to the rest of the market up like 50% each in the last month or so. So, I don't know. Like, that's pretty much all I look at to be like, "All right, like when we get pullbacks, like what things do I want to buy?" It's going to be those types of things. Um things that barely pull back. Yeah, they might not pull back much, but no discount.

So, that's kind of like where I'm at with those things. I'm curious like I know I know Cedarus has his um his TIA thesis. Anything else you're looking at Cedarus? I'm I'm curious. I know one for later. Um I mean I'm like mostly I consolidated a lot. I said this before into like soul and just soul stuff uh during like the past few months when the market was [ __ ] Um I don't want to stray too far from being pretty heavy soul. Uh even TIA it's like yeah I have a TI it's like material. Um but you know if it goes to zero take the L and like move on sort of deal. Um I think it's like you know I think some it's

it's hard. We were talking about the Salana tokens before, right? It's like, you know, it's like Metaplex is such a good fundamental protocol and it's something that's going to stick around on Salana and especially if SVM gets more adopted too on all these changes. They're like they're buying they're buying back and burning like one one and a half% of their supply every month. Um, but like it doesn't have it doesn't have any good exchange listings and it was kind of like hedge fund hotel like all these hedge funds bought it in like November or something. Um, and then when the market turns it's like are people going to buy this fundamental token Metapplex or are they going to buy

Fartcoin or like the AI framework? And so this is this is the uh I don't know this is the tough thing. It's like I don't know why Metapplex trades like so cheap to and like doesn't have major listings. It's like one of the only few actual fundamental tokens in the entire industry that has like a moat like a pretty good moat. Um like it makes money off of every token minted on Salana. Um and uh, yeah, I don't know. I mean, SUI is such a funny token to me. Just like SUI is like very like I was I was bullish on

SU like uh over a year ago. Um, yeah, you actually that one pretty good. But like at the same time, I've been in disbelief a lot during the entire like year and a half. It just goes on these crazy rallies. And I think it's a hard one for people to reason about cuz it's like the tech and the team objectively very strong. Like it it is legit. It's not like vaporware. It is legit. Um they still don't really have an eco though. There's not like a ton of stuff still. Um and then reasoning about the FTV is hard. Like if you just look at it straight up on Coin Gecko, it's like 34 bill. Then there's like 53% of tokens don't unlock to 2030. And then those are

like unallocated. I think they're just like foundation or like mist and labs tokens. And then it's like okay are those like how real are those? Those are being used for staking. Um but then it's like realistically how long is they're never going to spend like 53% of the FTV. And so it's kind of hard to like think about what is the actual like coming up with these like adjusted valuations for different protocols, right? Like something with an FTV that fully 34. Yeah, that seems expensive. I think they do a lot of K, right? And yeah, and then there's like all these other rumors about like they're doing all this and

like I think the K stuff's probably true. I've heard it from like a lot of people. And so there's just like a lot of moving parts to it with like and it's just very hard to #grant. Yeah, hashtag grant. It's just like very hard to I don't know reason about that one. Um and like kind of predict where it's going to go from here, right? When it is at. Even if you even if you take the FTV and you cut it in half and say it's like 17, that's still pretty that's still pretty high for something that doesn't have um that is still working on building out an ecosystem and everything, right? So yeah. Um and if you look those rallies

have been pretty spa driven if you kind of check out CVDs um someone's been buying in size high stakes capital I think one of the reasons is that it's very I think that SU is very like Asia focused too and so I have like a bit of a blind spot I guess to like market participants. Um I think like Asia versus like uh like North America or like Europe based crypto investors are very different types of people. Um, I think they're like very different markets and so just like way different market dynamics, but yeah, I don't know what else am I

looking at? I mean, those are kind of the main I have one. Yeah, go for it. So, Galaxy Digital, they just announced today. They're uplisting on the 16th of May finally. I've held this thing for [ __ ] five years. And well, wasn't isn't the vote in like uh a week or something? Yeah, the votes on the 9th, but they just put out a tweet today. They intend to uplist on the 16th. So that's like going from, you know, the TSX. We're we're on Gate.io right now and we're getting NASDAQ. So we're going to Binance, we're going to Coinbase, we're going to Up, we're getting the works here. So I'm excited.

I'm excited for that. And um they basically have like like a trading business, a staking business, a lending business, like trading/market making, staking, lending, uh an M&A business. All those businesses, those operating businesses are kind of like break even, but they're starting to like really scale up now. Then they have like a venture portfolio, crypto and cash on the balance sheet of about like 2 billion US. And then they have this data center that this like they bought this old Bitcoin miner in 2023 that they're converting into a data center which is like potentially one of the biggest data centers in the US and they've signed like I think like over 10 billion worth of contracts with Coreeave to like build

out this like massive data center in Texas. So, it's like a good crypto plus AI play and they're finally getting their uplisting if you can buy it on Yeah, some Galaxy. I think it's like a decent. So, the Canadians finally get to dump on the Americans with this uh with this up. I'm excited about it. I think the the data center piece could is like pretty huge. That's like the moonshot if that kind of like works out. And so far it is like they've signed um I think they deal with corewave recently, right? Yeah, they've signed like 600 megawatts of the 800 they have approved for C with core wave. And if like the deals relatively

the same, I think it's like 13.5 billion of revenue over 15 years. So these are like long contracts like predictable revenue. They're building out this massive data center. They have another 1.7 gawatt of capacity under study, which is like if they were to get to the full 2.5 gawatts, it makes it like one of the biggest data centers in the US or the biggest. So, it's kind of cool. Uh crypto and AI, good narrative. Yeah. Um cool. I think we're actually got to end it now because Jason and I have uh something we need to be at. But uh yeah, good pot everyone. Thanks everybody for listening. We'll be back in a couple

weeks. Um, and Jose will probably be back then. And uh, yeah, I don't know. Hopefully there's some more. I still be I feel like we've still been in this kind of like weird limbo zone for a few months. Um, hopefully you get like more concrete direction or something. But, uh, yeah, thanks everyone and, uh, have a good rest of your week. Thanks everyone. See you guys. [Music]