Hivemind: Conference Circuit, VC Coin Comebacks, and Crypto's Next Narrative

Transcript

you're starting to see like memes again just like these new memes that are launching have like sustained multiple weak just straight run-ups right and I think it's just like indicative of the shift in Risk appetite and sentiment in markets how much VC coin outperformance uh do you need to see before you rotate exactly uh I want to see what happens after's catch the [ __ ] hot potato it's like let's play Hot Potato with the piece of dynamite nothing set on the hive mind is a recommendation to buy or sell Securities or tokens this podcast is strictly for informational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions not

Financial [Music] advice all right hi everyone and welcome to another episode of the hive mind podcast today we're joined by the usual cast myself Jose Maria masedu Yan Duncan plus special guest Jason who is who is now a regular on the on the hive mind um a lot to talk the Market's going up so we had we had to replace our head of intellectual research with our head of do coins and and markets it was only proper yeah now cus has got it I think

he's on he's on holiday he was in Singapore grind finding it out and maybe let's start there what did um what was everyone's actually you guys you guys didn't two of you guys didn't go but uh Jason maybe start with you what were your thoughts on on Singapore and the whole the whole conference circuit yeah absolutely um so this is one of the one of the first conferences I've been to in quite a while it's not usually my scene I don't uh I don't typically go but I figured you know given everything that's happened with salana over the last like year or so pretty much yeah pretty much dating back to last year's breakpoint I figured I would you know make the 20h hour flight over there and kind of my Bonk bags yeah yeah see the eggs of liquidity no um and kind of just see

what's going on right see see what progress has actually been made in the ecosystem see if it's all hype or not right just kind of get get the get the ground level info so to speak and I was honestly really really um kind of impressed with what I saw for the most part right I I spent a fair amount of time listening to some of the different panels you know they had like the left stage curve which is or left curve stage which was like a lot of the consumer apps games uh things like that metad Dow those those those types of you know types of projects and then you had like the right curve stage which is more updates on a lot of the more technical things technical infrastructure updates like fire dancer and stuff like that so

uh between the two I was I was extremely impressed with both one uh starting like on the left curve like those consumer apps I I'm a big gamer kind of like Pierce if anybody knows Pier so I was really interested to see like what's going on in like you know the gamei ecosystem within salana um as we've had a lot of you know like promise and hype over the years for games and a lot of it hasn't really come to fruition and I was really uh glad to see that there's actually fun games coming to Market I've had the opportunity to play test several of them right we have off the grid which is something that Deli Ventures has invested in which I've you know put probably 15 hours or so into the play tests over the last several months oh really I didn't know that what have you

been playing it on what was that PC yeah yeah yeah yeah PC um only a PC Gamer anything on Console I'm not going to touch so PC is where I'm at and then how is Off the Grid relative to like other Battle Royal uh so obviously it's it's still like you know in development it's still very early in its development but there is uh I would say there's a lot of potential with it right there's really good gameplay Loops I like the movement mechanics the shooting mechanics are really good for people who care about lore and stuff like that there there you know there's there's a fair bit of that involved as well it's not really stuff I I care about I just like clicking heads and stuff like that but uh I had a lot of fun playing it and a good barometer

for um for these things is I have a you know a normal IRL friend from college that I used to play video games with doesn't do any crypto stuff you know it's not that he hates that he's just you know a normal working person who doesn't have time to to get in the weeds with this stuff but every time there's a you know a gaming play test uh I kind of try to get him involved to see what like the Normie take would be on it and he sunk more hours into both off the grid and the nion heroes um kind of like OverWatch Style game uh he's I think he sunk I think he said he sunk like 35 hours into neon Heroes and maybe 20 hours into Off the Grid and he said that he would have played those games specifically n Heroes even if there

wasn't an airdrop he had a lot of fun doing it um obviously you know like they're early so like there's like bugs and stuff like glitches it's a little janky sometimes have you played since the last update since the because the they've done a big patch on on Off the Grid specifically they patched a lot of the movement stuff no I have not I I plan on doing it pro I think they open up Play tests usually like every weekend or so so I uh I'll probably play this weekend because I don't want to do anything I need to recover um so yeah I'll probably test it out and you guys the updates I know Pier put out a pretty big post on this recently as well and I Echo a lot of the same sentiment there so in terms of like the gamei stuff

stuff that I'm really interested in I still think you know games are one of the one of the ways we will actually you know get tens of millions of normies on board into crypto because gaming is so huge um so I'm I'm really bullish on these on these games and you know future iterations and future things that come to Market there and then like with the infrastructure stuff and the fire dancer I'm not going to pretend like I knew you know like 80% of what Kevin Bowers was saying um but the fact that they've made such such immense progress over the last several years and now that you know fired dancers's live on mainnet you know it's only replaying blocks so it's not you know Fully live but the fact that it's there I think that's probably going to in my opinion be the next like salana

Catalyst like the the big Catalyst for salana going into year end and into 2025 there were a lot though like the thing I did go I did have gone to a few conferences last two years and this was definitely the most the most bullish one and specifically breakpoint was like such a difference from from uh ECC it's it's actually crazy like yeah like ECC um I feel like sentiment was was an oldtime low uh and there there was everyone was building infra on infra there was a bunch of jaded people like people kind of kind of uh even people pitching you were kind of like jaded and and and like you know repeating the Playbook rather than than showing any excitement about what they

were building um and then it was just like there's just a luck going on people get angry about you know there's a new Layer Two there's these side events everything's kind of competitive and zero some whereas on Salon it was just like announc like the whole ecosystem just coordinated all these announcements um there was like announcement after announcement on that day um and it just felt completely different there's also way more people building apps actually trying to bring users on chain um yeah and just way more like excited Builders I would say um yeah very very different vibe it was I almost capitulated on my I was saying in the I almost capitulated on my eth bag during breakpoint which

would have been max pain the reason I didn't was actually because uh it would have been more painful for me for it to pump after I sold than than to continue underperforming I've accepted continued underperformance at this point also token 2049 itself was crazy I think there's like 20,000 people there like wherever you went in Singapore it was just crypto people like crypto shirts you know weird looking crypto people everywhere it was like the city was was taken over it was pretty wild um yeah Alex Alex fisum the organizer does an insane job with that like yeah pretty pretty impressive and so for like The Vibes between ECC and breakpoint um I think obviously I mean I would imagine a lot of it has to do you know like eth hasn't eth's performed like you know decently

well Rel I mean I guess it wasn't it was kind of flat year today up until a couple weeks ago it was up you find this really narrow window relative to USD but like do you think it's mainly because eth has just like underperformed so everybody's just kind of like you know very jaded and soul is just kind of ripped so everybody and Salon is just super pumped or is it like actually people within the eth ecosystem realizing that like the road map and everything isn't really fully aligned it's it's really fragmented there isn't like a clear you know a a clear solution to that at at the at this point yeah um action or is it fundamentals Jose yeah I was gonna say like there

definitely price action there's definitely a lot of price action big mail in the coffin was was just the the apathy from institutional investors post ETF I think once that happened and there were no flows it it you're you're looking ahead and like what's the next real Catalyst this was kind of supposed to be the Saving Grace to some degree but Etc was before that though right it was before even people were still hoping that the ETF would would drive some some flows um I do think part of it is is eth is like the cosmos fication of eth or whatever like there's no like with salana there's this shelling Point asset that everyone's aligned around like every Builder own soul everyone's Builder Soul everything happens on salana and so there's this like

camaraderie and just alignment between the ecosystem that I think is really important like when when you launch on salana right now you get all the benefits of that like you get a captive user base that wants to use and shield your project you get investor interest you get cross promotion like salana Foundation promotes you you get [ __ ] at breakpoint like everything's very aligned whereas with eth um it's sort of like balkanized right there's like a bunch of different l2s which are which are competitors um and then there's like l3s and like the a lot of what was happening with ECC was like l2s pitching each other to be l3s on themselves right it's like the the Spider-Man me but like l2s and l3s like no you be my off Arena you know um and everything like the these things are

sort of like competing and also the the value doesn't really acre back to eth so I think there was there was a lot of that and and also was just like Market I think Market timing generally was more more depressing than like it was meme it was like meme season and and stuff like this but I do think part of it is the is this Cosmos Cosmos ification of of eth where there's no there there is no like ecosystem anymore right there's a bunch of tribes that each have their own tokens and and ecosystems to pump and that like that just makes the Vibes a little bit a little bit worse but it isn't necessarily bad for eth I don't think because I do think that's the end game for salana too yeah but because I was gonna say if cedus is here you know

I feel like he'd remind us that this is probably where salana is eventually gonna get to but right now it's like it's not there yet so it'll be interesting to see what happens how much further ahead does the does does fire dancer push that inevitability though right if you can continue to scale scale the base layer then um well I think last time we had a big talk about it with cedus he probably has updates after breakpoint because he was there and understands the stuff much better but he said like you'd probably get at least 30,000 DPS live but apparently I don't know I saw some tweets about them saying like a million I mean that's that's what that's what Kevin B said in the speech he said it was live on mainnet doing a

million TPS yeah like cedus seemed to think that was obviously it was all like synthetic transaction everything but um but yeah we we need somebody with an actual Giga brain who who knows who knows that stuff a bit more what's E TPS yeah sedus was super excited about about um about a a lot of the salana stuff was taking Victory laps at and and while you're looking up that that number I uh that point you brought up Z about the foundation right I think that's a it's a pretty big one um I I was walking around with a bunch of people who who work at salana and and the salana foundation just meeting a bunch of the different you know devs working on different aspects

of of of the ecosystem and it seems to me that the salana foundation is extremely good at uh supporting teams across the entire stack um and I it doesn't it doesn't really feel the same way to me with with the ethereum foundation at this point in time um and I think it's they're very different I don't think that was ever the case with ethereum Foundation right it was mostly it was never the with playing that role so e TPS consensus right consensus was like the the better the best equivalent of the yeah I mean East DPS is like 10 or 15 right basically so even if they get 30,000 then it gives them a lot of Runway vers

yeah but you're not comparing to Ether you're comparing to l2s I know but oh yeah and then l2s I looked at this is from coin Telegraph June 17 2024 they say L2 beat data shows ethereum scaling networks including layer2 and layer 3 blockchange registered a combined 245 TPS on June 16 145 245 there's defin it's definitely higher than that it's definitely higher than that I mean you we did that report a while ago which is probably a better sourced than the then coin Telegraph to be fair the the realized TPS sire report but anyway so Salon is like a few like one to two orders of magnitude higher is what they're saying fired answer will be

and I think you'll like I mean there was no real timeline that they put but I think you'll probably start to see things like Q like within q1 Q2 of 2025 so yeah just in time to offset the unlocks from the discount sale well played found timing yeah so yeah I guess my takeaway is like I went into to breakpoint and and the week extremely bullish on salana and I think I came out more bullish which was hard for me to to think what happen I I was like I was kind of going expecting to be like oh wow a lot of this is like all hype but like not really I I came out kind of you know bolded up and and what if the price had gone down over that

week what have you been as excited I've been holding things down 70% for the last six months dude I it's fine it wouldn't have wouldn't have phased me one bit Yeah I do imagine it adds a completely different vibe to the to a conference most conferences are associated with down moves and it's just like everyone kind of coping with you know the the crying face behind the it is kind of impressive though right because last breako was I think like October of last year in Amsterdam and pric is kind of ripped right and then everybody's like oh like are we have the curse again and we kind of you know part of it is just like you know there there's a lot of historic seasonality to

these asset prices so having a conference in May and July probably not going to get great price action versus a Conference in October or late September kind of thing wow salana just doing just really thousand iing this thing ECC is what July and then Salon is always Bitcoin Miami is always like end of May when everything nukes yeah um that is a really important point though right like a lot of this stuff is is very seasonal for the most part the other the other conference that was cool was the network state conference uh you know biologies conference I don't know if you if you went to that Jason I uh I watched it when I was in the airport leaving nice yeah there was like Brian

Johnson and a bunch of people um honestly I left that one a little bit disappointed like I was I'm pretty interested in network States and I've been firing following one specific one for a while while um prospera which is like in in Honduras and Honduras is is a really cool one because they specifically altered the Constitution to allow for like effectively Network States like they can basically sell land and people who buy the land get to alter like Fork the civil code like they can't have their own Army and they can't change the criminal code but they can change the the civil code and the tax code so uh and prospera was were these guys that were backed by like Peter theel and Andre Horwitz and a bunch bunch of people they both land there and

they really like they have a really good blog post on this which maybe we can put in the in the show notes I feel like we've we've said we were going to do that and I don't think we've ever done that we we should probably start um yeah but but it's a good it's a good post about just um like every they thought through everything right everything from medical like every drug that's legal in America or Europe is legal there if you have a doctor's degree from anywhere a medical degree from from any of their like accepted States you can practice there um they've also made it so that if you buy land on prospera you can actually have your mini prospera within it so you can alter your the civil code on on your land so basically it incentivizes like competition within prospera because they don't don't ever

want to like solidify there was just a bunch of stuff that was really exciting and then I kind of found out at the conference uh I don't know how I'd missed this but Honduras basically rugged them so obviously it was a previous government that had made this this um that that had given this this concession and the current government of Honduras in 2022 ju just basically like rugged them and they're now suing Honduras for 11 billion do in in Damages for like the value of the real estate and stuff like this in a court in Honduras no no no in an international um I forget the name of the court now but it's like an international like trade yeah there're they're suing the the Honduran

government I I'll find out the name of the the thing they're suing them under but it's going to be pretty tough so that's that's like kind of like an interesting one right because I I was like uh when I was listening to bage CU he did like a little a little Spiel at breakpoint on the last day or something um and I I I've always just kind of like wondered that like obviously like you kind of mentioned it like oh like you can't have your own military so I assume you know like the Honduras military or whatever country you're buying land from that's like what you what you use or whatever um but like yeah like what happens if the government just decides to rug you like what do you like is there like actually any recourse like like it it seems to me like I love I

think the idea is fantastic but like it seems so difficult to pull off in like a practical sense to me that like it's hard for me to get super bullish this was this was the one I was most bullish on because of because of like the everything they they thought through and also the backers and and like the fact that they actually had the ability to edit the civil code code cuz I think without that you just have like these popup cities and these like kind of you know hippie communities or whatever which are cool but it just lacks teeth right like you you really want to be able to to do a proper experiment in governance and to do that you you do need to be able to to make some changes to the civil code and like I don't know the the the problem is that

the countries where they're open to doing this Dynamic you can't trust that they'll honor their promise and the ones where where you can trust they'll honor their promise don't want to do it but it would make a lot of sense for like Portugal or Italy like we have so much land in the interior that's just totally abandoned like beautiful land like you know in Italy they had this campaign uh like Kaz Ono like houses for a Euro you could basically buy a house for a Euro as long as you invested 50k into doing it up uh just to try and to try and repopulate their their interior and it's like you could generate so much more GDP per like meters squared of land if you had something like this right you just you just like cordoned off some some part part of your of the country to do

an experiment in governance got a bunch of people to invest like a bunch of entrepreneurs would go there and remote workers it's just a shame that like European Union is is like very far from well even even more on that relationship in terms of you know the country that you'd want to do it in being the Le the least kind of uh likely to do it and then the countries where you're you're you know um is the fact that when it's successful it also becomes a bit of a boundy right and so it's and it's particularly in a country that you know might not be doing well because they were open to it in the first place and so the you know you have two things traveling in opposite directions and and the one that's doing worse has kind of jurisdiction in in like a tail risk

scenario over the one that's doing well and yeah it's a it's a tricky one I mean and yeah exactly and the whole media the whole like liberal media jumped on it like these it's like these VCS or like Neo neoc colonialists taking over Honduras yeah exactly um you need like El Salvador or something to do it like some guy like I feel like that guy would do it you know adopted Bitcoin he's into this stuff I don't know if they have the land for it um it's yeah I don't I don't know enough about it but the the the idea the idea for this is actually from a Nobel Prize Economist right I say you have like Charter States I think you won the Nobel

Prize in like 2012 or something like this um what's the name of the guy keep I forget his name but basically it's the idea that some countries are like have really good National like natural resources and stuff but they just can't govern themselves so what if what if every country was governed like Switzerland like you basically just Outsource the governance of your country to to Switzerland and pay them like some some percentage of tax revenue or whatever um and obviously you have like some some contingency so you don't completely relinquish your sovereignty but it's a it's a pretty cool idea I just felt like everything I saw at Network state was like no one the only one that was close to that kind of got rugged so I was a bit like ah I think we're practice is probably the next most promising one it seems like they're

negotiating with Mediterranean they keep saying like Mediterranean countries um so maybe maybe they get something done I don't know should we uh move on to markets yeah let's do it um oh should we do you want to do markets or the sectors from sectors that were most hated and loved at in Singapore let's just stick on Singapore real quick we could run through it for me what I what I felt when I was you know walking around all the panels and all the booths and and listening to a bunch of the different debates and uh panels um to me it seemed you know like obviously there's hype around you know the infrastructure developments with fire dancer and everything but like I just kind of keep that to the side I

feel like that's a default uh for me it was kind of deepin and and gaming um I I think we start start to see you know a lot of progress with with with with deepin project uh a lot more coming to Market or or in development right you had regardless of their pretty terrible uh uh panel on stage you had like the Jambo phone so you know more Hardware related things kind of building off of you know like that Saga phone right you have all these like really cool actual real world things being you know built and stuff uh integrated within uh you know the salana ecosystem and then obviously like I mentioned at the start like games like the hype is is quite real there um and I

it's just the one that I personally am most most excited about I was really excited about it going in and I'm I'm I'm even more so at this point I'm kind of curious what what you think uh josea since you were also there yeah I think dpin was the number one consensus sector people were bullish on uh I'd agree with that and probably the second one I'd say was was uh crypto xai although that one's a bit more polarizing there's some smart people who who think it's vaporware and then I'd say the third was probably ton ecosystem generally which we can CH interesting gamey I thought was like the least the one people were most capitulating on maybe it was who I spoke to but it's like there was so much pain like and I saw so many projects

that had raised monster rounds two years ago and are now like trying to raise much smaller rounds at the same or lower valuations like the token prices were were were terrible like a lot of the investors I felt like were were capitulating in the sector so that seems like one where where there's going to be some interesting opportunities there's also some liquid stuff that there that's interesting I agree with that entirely and right like I think a lot of that comes down to a lot of people just funded really shitty games right like at the end of the day the games just need to be good games and fun and then the other stuff will come assuming you can you know design good good uh economics around it that aren't really like super obtrusive or or most hopefully abstracted away right because you know

Gamers don't really care that much right like obviously it's it's in their best interest for these types of uh things to be adopted right as somebody who has an obscenely big steam inventory for Counter-Strike ghost skins it would be pretty nice if I actually owned those right um and you know valve couldn't rug me whenever they wanted um so like yeah it is in Gamers best interest it's kind of like you just have to convince them and I think the best way to do that is just deliver them good games which is starting to happen like this is the first time in all of crypto gaming where I've like actually had fun playing these games and yeah I was say just good good

games take time right and and everything in crypto is very short Loops it's hard it's hard to make good games just look at like the triaa studios in gaming that have you know that put hundreds of millions of dollars into development for their games that end up being absolutely garbage and you know churn like through 90% of their player base within a couple months and those games are also massively drisk right because they're they're generally just iterating on previously very successful titles exactly yeah and it's also a very hard area to invest in and I think a lot of crypto investors sort of wisely actually stayed out of it because it's uh it's it's it's half Venture

investing but half of it like almost like art you know or or like investing in a movie or something like you're betting on this very subjective um sort of very subjective ability of a team to to build a compelling experience I wouldn't say many stayed out though I think I think you had many jump in head first 2122 and then the the kind of staying out started in 23 when uh expectations which were a bit short in terms of you know the time it takes to to build this stuff uh didn't match uh what was delivered and so um now you have a scenario where you know naturally when there's a gold rush you're going to

get a lot of crap but there's going to be some good stuff mixed in and so you're starting to see some of the quality ones that were funded like all all the games that are going to be coming out um over the next year so they're exciting haven't they weren't built in the past 12 months right so it's all stuff that was funded a long time ago and takes a while and so um yeah yeah it's it's like it's a multi-year development cycle and so I think you know the quality ones will start to to show now yeah the alignment with like when people want distributions on their Investments versus how long it actually takes to make something that's actually good and like to Z's Point like there's no like Cookie Cutter approach to making a very good game all it it's

all different from one to another and specifically from one genre of game to another um yeah there's obviously best practice that go go involved into you know making mechanics that are compelling and and fun to use um and you know like making sure that there's like an adequate skill ceiling for people to you know get to but it's also not impossible to pick up there's like all of these things that you know you need to balance and I think a lot of it also comes down to like um I think this is probably like a sector where like you probably want to bet on on Founders who have built something in the past versus like other things in crypto where like you know we get these super young Founders who are like making the first foray into you know entrepreneurship sort of things with

building these protocols and that stuff is I think you know good and fine but I think within gaming you you do need some kind of um experience of of what works and what doesn't work to know what you can and can't do um in the future for these things and and particularly I think you know on on the first time game builder side I think uh one of the most fre mistakes we've seen is um inefficient use of of capital and more specifically a poor job of understanding how much Capital you need to get from where you are to where you want to be and and so you've had a lot of situations where you know development is usually going to be delayed by

something and so um the where they plan to be for their next round they're not quite there yet which makes raising their next round even harder and so you kind of get this downward uh death spiral for some of these guys and so um yeah the the the multi-time game founder it's one you know just building a game but it's also managing a team managing a budget and managing a timeline which is which is really hard and and generally doesn't necessarily overlap with the original skill set that you're looking for in a game designer yeah also so Switching gears a little bit a lot of ton ecosystem activity I don't know if you guys experienced the same thing that was like one of the sectors that people were

talking about the most um I know I had one of our portfolio companies shout out fanton take us through like the the telegram wallet experience and it's actually pretty smooth at this point they also have this deposit campaign where you can earn up to like 50% AP you can earn 50% apy on up to 10K uh if you just kyc with them so I'm very curious what who's paying for that and also how how many users they've gotten through through that because there's like a billion tether on trun now a little bit over that and so I wonder how money how many like unique users actually signed up for this campaign because that bodess well for for distribution and then there's like so many mini apps with with tens of millions of monthly active users at this

point like a lot of them are clickers but there's like a dating site I saw like a Tinder on on telegram there's like uh all sorts of stuff on there it does feel like an interesting like distribution method but also a lot of these telegram mini apps that do literally nothing on T in fact one of them uh like upset everyone because they launched a token on salana they like had a ton Min game and everyone thought it was going to be an air drop on ton and then there launch the token on salana because literally none of this stuff runs on chain so it's like bullish distribution and the ux but yeah it's I still don't see the full picture of how this will this will end up uh yeah I I don't have too much insight into ton I know I know Duncan

looked into ton quite a bit a couple months ago and I know lots of things have probably changed since that but um it's it's a distribution thing for me but I think it's kind of telling that you know that ton project would launch on launch their token on salana right I think that kind of tells you a bit that like the users that you want or you know or maybe the users are just there and ready on salana versus on ton it just something doesn't feel right there to me like I like it it looks like it should just you know take off but like nothing really is so I'm kind of just like curious I'm kind of sitting out on it mostly because I just don't understand um enough of it and like where where the value really is and like

there's there haven't been too many like compelling um apps or or projects that I would want to get involved in I think a lot of them you can make good money on like you know that not coin and stuff back then and and all that stuff but like I'd rather I'd rather take the time and spend it in salana to be honest yeah what do what do you think Duncan I'm curious would index for that one token yeah but maybe yeah it's just I think it's just like an early like flag post yeah I definitely think it's kind of interesting that like you could use telegrams distribution and then just go and kind of Do Your Own Thing on a

different chain but yeah it's probably like kind of a oneoff because I'm sure it's a lot smoother having it on ton but definitely they have a ton of distribution um I still feel like they need to make the chain a little bit less clunky and yeah like I think it has definite potential they just need to work on on the Chain I feel like what do you think of the cazin and and hamster combat launch I yeah how did it go versus what you expected I was expecting bigger launches honestly I mean hamster combat's traded like 500 million um like in the first few hours but cazin I think settled somewhere like

800 million fully DD um yeah yeah I think you definitely have a kind of like after nocoin was like such a success on on binance and these games like relatively speaking pretty low lift uh right they're just clicker games which are like incentivizing kind of like um you to go and follow their social media and join their telegram group and and all that stuff so so they can get pretty insane distribution and like they're kind of fun but like the mo it's kind of the thing with meme coins right it's like you know once one meme coin goes to

four billion there's 10,000 launched today right so you know when NCoin pumps to a billion and like there's a very low cost to create these things then there's probably like you know hundreds of clicker games a day being launched on salana and obviously Hampshire combat and Cat citizens are two of the bigger ones and got traction early but there's just like you know the effort it takes to make that game versus the potential payout you know reaching like billions dollar valuation yeah but there's been there's been like there's like millions of them now there's like hundreds of clicker games that haven't done what hamster combat or cat I mean Catan's been building for like two years and I

think hamster combat was it's the same thing with coins though so it's just like just the fact that they exist and they're such low lift games in terms of like nocoin or hamster combat like the massive incentive to just Spam spam development of them do you guys know what the last hamster combat round was I actually don't I think the cazin one was like 200 to 300 mil so not a great launch probably up 2 3x on at this point um but hamster combat looks to be like almost 60% uh diluted like sorry 60% of of the float is out there kind it's it's like a half a billion market cap um and and it traded

its entire market cap in in volume over the first two hours on binance it looks like uh yeah pretty wild all right we we want to move to to markets it looks like we have we have re awoken um and specifically I'm interested in in getting you guys on I mean markets generally and also like VC coins the that would have been very hated uh including sometimes by by us on this podcast um have seem to have come alive and actually outperformed memes over the last seven days curious yeah what's how's everyone feeling about the market is this is this real uh yeah how you guys how you guys feeling I'm kind

of worried a little bit going into the election that's like my one thing that I'm a little bit worried about I feel like there's a lot of uncertainty there um but like yeah I think things are looking pretty good like one thing that I like to look at for for Bitcoin is like gold and gold has been making like new all-time highs every day for the past like month and I think that Bitcoin fundamentally is like pretty similar to Gold so on a fundamentals basis I think it should kind of follow but it does have a super high correlation with with stocks and kind of more risk assets so we still might be going through a bit of digestion but I think like the big kind

of question mark um and maybe I'm just overthinking it or maybe the market is like kind of over indexing on it but I just feel like the election is in the US like going to be really important for like what are the next regulatory steps because if it's priced basically 50/50 right now you know 50% of the market is thinking you know you could get a trump win like a massive easing off of regulatory bodies like he appoints new SEC chair and in head of the cfdc and then it's just like you know a big safe period for crypto and and ALT Founders and and other projects can take on a lot more risk and

there probably won't be too much action um but then you know if you get uh a camela win and uh it kind of continues with these more unclear rules around crypto maybe even like a further Crackdown because like we we haven't really seen the SEC I feel like slow down much during this election cycle and they keep on uh cracking down so like if there's another win and it just goes further in that direction I think that that could be um that could be scary for for alts longer term on the SEC point I think that I forget the cut off date it's either end of September or end of October we

basically uh everything they prosecute after that won't count as a feather in gensler's cap so they try and Rush everything and then they so you can kind of that that's why you're seeing a flurry and then it'll kind of stop um is kind of the understanding I've gotten from from talking to other people um yeah markets wise uh I think by base cases we don't break all-time highs until after the election uh if you like zoom out you know from the all-time high in in March uh we've kind of or late February we've kind of made lower highs consistently uh 65 most recently has been a pretty big uh source of resistance uh so I think you know if we

can break through that we probably teleport to high 60s and then I I I would be surprised if we broke out I think there's like low chance we break out to new alltime highs before election unless you're starting to see um a lot more more confidence in in a trump Victory um so you know but during that time I I do think you'll see some uh degree of all season which is kind of what we're seeing now with Bitcoin dominance being super high you're starting to see kind of total three uh breakout which is just like a look at crypto market cap outside of BTC and e um and um and so so so you think it'll run from

here you you're I think we kind of until um election alts alts I think yeah alts I think are pretty well set up I think you know decent amount um dominance still pretty low the the the uh total market cap of of of total 3 is is getting up there but I think part of that is also just a function of unlocks and and and new token launches right so it's not necessarily appreciation per se it's it's just creation of of new market cap uh just through through new tokens and so um I I do think alts can run decently well it um you're not seeing an insane amount of new money come in the

space though so it'll probably be a select subset of alts and and not a broad-based rally kind of what we've seen you know um over the past year or so it hasn't really been an everything up type of environment um and then like because you also have a lot of macro uh Tailwinds right China easing uh is is pretty bullish and like the the the measures they're going with are pretty hilarious it's like a pretty blatant uh attempt at at manipulating the stock market upwards in terms of you know what they're doing to the to the point you know it's not just kind of interest rate Cuts but um

incentives to buy homes and and giving money basically like brokerage firms and insurance funds to help to to basically deploy into the stock market um and so I think that'll increase liquidity and serve as a as a as a tailwind and then you know us markets are looking a lot better the the rally there is broadened out right so it's not just a MAG s story again um and at the same time you know the the the the China stimulus should be good for a lot of hard assets and commodities uh so that'll Bren out the rally in stocks which should uh help on on the on the crypto side as well um and then yeah so I do think altz will do

well you'll probably going to get some occasional flushes but um I think there's a chance we can break to all-time highs before the election But ultimately I I don't think it'll happen until afterwards uh yeah I I so yeah I Echo a lot of the same thoughts like at a high level that that Duncan and and and Yan just shared um I'm quite yeah I think I think um you know you have so yeah on on at at the high level you have China issuing a you know a ton of stimulus coming into the market through various sources and you know into into various like places right stock market Commodities everything houses all that stuff on top of that you also have you know we

started cutting interest rates uh what was it a couple weeks ago you had a 50 basis point rate cut and the you know the bond market is kind of pricing in maybe another 50 basis points before the end of 2024 and then another several Cuts in in 2025 all of these things are super super bullish for risk assets uh as everybody knows and uh quick plug to our you know last year's year ahead markets report those were like the two things that we kind of pointed to as what would needed to happen in order for us to get you know a real bull market in in crypto in crypto markets um specifically China taking the liquidity baton which they just kind of did and then interest rate Cuts right interest rate cuts for me are really important

because they kind of catalyze the two missing ingredients uh that we've that we've been missing this this bull market or this cycle relative to you know last cycle or previous Cycles right all the other Cycles occurred when interest rates were quite low which is very very good for things like stable coin creation and you know credit expansion which are super important for risk assets right credit is very good for speculation and you just need more stable coins to have a bigger broad-based rally like we saw in in Prior Cycles something that I always like mention on Twitter or in our chats is like stable coins Grew From like I don't know 5 to 10 billion at the start of 2020 to like 190 billion at the cycle Peak versus you know bottoming out at

around 13 120 billion after FTX exploded uh and now we're kind of back at that you know like $90 billion do market cap so like you had a 40x increase in stable coin market cap last cycle versus you know like a 30% increase so far this cycle and then obviously you know credit is a huge thing we don't have any real crypto credit from an Institutional standpoint this cycle right genesis's loan book was like $5 billion dollar on its own and then you had you know several other other institutional lenders that had several billion dollar loan books themselves and most of that money was you know pushed back into markets via speculative funds and and things like that so without these two

things like it's kind of like you can't really expect everything in crypto to go up like they did in Prior Cycles because there's just simply not enough money to push everything up and then you know Duncan always brings up the other side of the equation which is the supply side Supply only continues to grow in crypto so if if everything's to go up you just need more money I think this is the start of that which is really really exciting for me um in terms of the sectors right um yeah to Jose's point over the last like you know like seven seven 14 days or so a lot of the best performers haven't actually been meme coins uh they've been you know kind of things like you mentioned the the quote unquote VC coins I think there's you know a question I'm pretty sure Duncan

would would cast some doubt on this right you have a bunch of unlocks coming up so you probably had a ton of people positioning like oh I'm gonna short this VC con into this unlock and then they just get absolutely blown out right you saw that with with Tia right having absurdly high uh negative funding sometimes say um suie I believe as well had had that Dynamic going on for quite some time and I think to some extent although yeah I don't know funding looked to have normalized on yeah I don't know I find it hard to it looked like it had normalized at the bottom actually for for these for these coins that's why I'm kind of I'm interested in because people were bullish majors and

like bearish a lot of these alts um and so what what what is it that change that is it is it just the fact that basically rates rate rate cuts chy to stimulus just means people go out on the risk curve and that's enough to like to undo the the the effect of the of the unlocks and the supply coming onto the market and positioning start I think a lot of people just got two that trade got two consensus basically over over the last six months you could have like just shorted pretty much any of these coins at any point and got away with it right so it really it creates like a lot of really bad habits for for people in the market and if if I if if you've been around crypto for a while it's like most people aren't actually that great at

short-term positioning it's more so you know you're just in a market that's very very forgiving most of the time and then when that you know when that kind of sentiment shifts like a lot of people continue trying to do the things that worked for the last couple months and I think like over the last couple weeks you you've you've seen this big like I felt this big like shift in price action and sentiment and things like that so people that like maybe don't have as much experience or just like aren't in the you know the weeds of of these like shorter time frame types of moves as much just kind of go back to the well that's been working and unfortunately like a big an example I like to use is like the T1 that had extremely negative funding and like regardless of what you

think about you know like da and you know cost of this and all that and alternative da whatever right like just looking at that chart I was just like I wouldn't short this like it's already down 80 plus percent and you just saw tons of people coming in to short this thing and then you had a bunch of VCS go on Twitter to you know like put up their threads about why Celestia's great blah blah blah blah blah and I just you just get this like really yeah right you just get this really weird positioning mismatch in the market and in the short term you just get a lot of um blowouts to to the upside and I think I think you will get your answer your your actual answer as to like are these coins now more in favor after this like next

couple couple weeks or month or so of unlocks hits the market right is there an actual organic bid to absorb these things or not the jury is still out I lean towards no as as Duncan is saying um but interestingly something that I've noticed outside of those V like the the the VC cabal coins or whatever is uh if you look back to like the start of the year and the end of last year AI coins were the first like sector to really start ripping right because you had chat GPT like really hit the market in I think it was like October of 23 like people actually like starting to use this and see like all the cool stuff and applications that would be unlocked by this type of tech and then you had

render you had to whatever all the other ones where I forget fetch right all of these things rip and do like absolute insane moves to the top and then after that you saw memes follow right you saw like uh like whiff you saw I don't all the memes right and I I'm seeing like the exact same thing happen right now in the markets right like if you look at a like a like a sector breakdown over the last couple weeks like yeah the the those coins that we just talked about are like the VC coins are doing quite well and have been doing better than memes a lot of the time at large but some of the bigger moves have been in a lot of these AI names too um and then you know in the trenches which I know

Setters hates hates that term but like you're starting to see like memes again just like these new memes that are launching have like sustained multiple weak just straight run-ups right and I I think it's just like indicative of the shift in Risk appetite and sentiment in markets like over the last six months any meme that came was pretty much Dead on Arrival it maybe pump for a couple days and then just [ __ ] go to zero whereas like now you have a bunch of these things ripping to hundred million dollar market caps and kind of holding for for weeks at on end so I think it's like um I think the market is kind of telling you that you know risk appetite is kind of back on the menu and I think the only thing that really derails

really derails back on the no no no no risk appetite risk appetite is back on the menu and I think to to Duncan's Point what really potentially derails us is the election that's like the only thing that I see that can stop this train yeah I feel like you know and we're we're recording this just for some context like bitcoin's in the middle of a massive green candle um so Bitcoin 65005 65,00 500 um and I don't know I kind of feel like you on the alts in some of like the longer taale stuff like what we might see again like I wouldn't at all be

surprised to see like maybe Bitcoin like rally up to 70 or something and like hang in there or come back a bit but then as soon as Bitcoin starts rolling even a bit just like another fullon all puke on all of as these unlocks hit and the these coins come out yeah the unlocks started though for a lot of these I know but when the Market's going up everyone is three three everyone is holding we're going to Infinity you know Bitcoin goes to 70k no one sells a single coin and then all of a sudden Bitcoin goes from like 70k to like 67k like that and all these things get [ __ ] that's kind of what yeah I think they're all gonna I agree they'll

all puke right it's not even going to be tokens with unlocks I think yeah everything will puke because it's just marginal selling and also the other thing with total 3 that um it's not really that great of an indicator because it only shows 100 the top 125 coins if you go to like coin Gecko and go to like the total market cap it'll show you everything and obviously there's a lot of like I'm sure they fill throughout the ones that it clearly scams or like unverified but like total 3 is only the top 125 and we are launching so many more coins so I'm just looking at you know March 11th which was like the peak of the market the market cap peaked at 2.85 trillion and now we're at

2.4 trillion so it's down like 5% the total total Mark trillion on on coin gecko yeah if you go to coin Gecko and then at the top you hit Market track so it's basically like the market cap is down 5% but many alts and many coins are down [ __ ] 70% so this is this whole ution thing that you know the thing is though that's just a huge a huge mismatch like if you look at this the market Cap's down 5% but a lot of these prices are down 50% plus so that's the only thing that I'd be careful about yeah the the stuff down there is going to be heavy heavy low float High fdv because coin gecko tracks by market cap not fdv so like it's it it's it doesn't really come into play as much and and

agree I I don't think it's a great signal it's more just are we breaking out or we breaking down like another view on it I do think though that we've churned through a lot of BTC Supply so uh you know over the summer through all the selling from from um governments and and and all the SE Bitcoin everything else in between so you know having that out of the way in a friendly environment is going to be very constructive for price so um like even pullbacks that we've seen like we we thought I thought the chop would be worse on the way down right because over the summer we if you if you plot kind of uh BTC against equities that we were underperforming right downside similar if not worse upside less and then right

now it's at least today but today means nothing it's it's it's reversing a bit so I I do think there there's a slightly more constructive environment for BTC and ultimately I think you know BTC is gonna be fine either way with either person in office but I do still think you get a broader puke uh with with ket including on BTC not from the regulatory side but from just the the increase in taxes right and what and how that plays out I don't I don't think I'm not I'm pricing in a very very very low chance of the unrealized gain tax but just increasing individual uh taxes both cap gains and income and then corporate taxes this is going to be a big drag and and create a lot of panic I think yeah I

think that yeah we're just GNA continue to see like you know positioning on alts got really terrible and like said I got really low and people got really short and now we've had like a solid BTC run and and ALT are now moving but I think you're going to see on like a macro picture this Dynamic of like BTC hanging in going down a bit and just like you know maybe some alter outperforming on on the upside but I think basically all alt are going to just really uh on the downside like kind of get crushed or when btc's chopping just they have such weight to them and I think like as the market matures it's like you know if you have like just cuz Bitcoin the outlook

for Bitcoin does well yes there's going to be certain outperformers obviously and you know you'll probably do really well if you can find them but it can't carry all this other [ __ ] up especially with the environment that Jason was talking about which is like you know retail environment uh more credit in crypto like if you want everything to really for a sustained rally go up you need you know retail and credit back and I don't think that happens until like bitcoin's like like 80 to 100K and then maybe you could get something that's like really crazy for a stained amount of time but until then I think every like big BTC sell off you're gonna see a lot of these alts get puked pretty hard I think you're right

um just one thing that's like very it just uh it just like so if I think back to and I you know look back at how how things I've owned have you know acted and performed you know from I would say you know don't laugh okay Jason's gonna be telling us about the meme sector no no from June no from everything from June to uh for you know SE beginning of September maybe or like you know August right like everything even when like because like you know Bitcoin is done like decently well like yeah you had like a pretty big selloff uh you know at when was that like uh at the start of August right when you had like that Japanese macro blow up right um but like

that isn't really indicative of like crypto that was everything so I kind of just like take that really big puke and draw down and I just like remove it or I try to like just pretend it like didn't exist as like you know like I don't think that's indicative of like crypto weakness or anything like that and the way like just the way that that markets have or crypto markets and altcoins not just memes but like it's it's I think it's like a very good barometer for just like pure risk appetite and speculative frenzy which is why I go back to it the way that the market has traded since the beginning of September to now is very very very very different than the way the market traded from like May to the beginning of September very very

different um like I'm looking at my you know my watch lists literally everything is green every single thing is green except eth BTC which is Jason this is what I think like not done accumulating Bitcoin and the cabal is pumping these VC coins into unlock I don't have many VC coins on my watch list that's my current positioning right now so like the way I I look at it is like the market is trading and acting differently than it has over the last several months so I think that that should be a sign to people that like hey maybe things are starting to rep like resemble more of what we saw from October 23 to

March of 24 versus what we saw from April to September yeah I think this is more of a mean reversion than like a market structure shift like we're not done working through okay we can make we'll see I mean we we come back a couple month I don't think this is a mark old season I think this is just positioning way too bearish but don't think it's I think it's a start interesting you think it's a start you think it's start of all season I think so but but you but you mentioned you've obviously been playing the beta through through mainly memes um and you know you're you're and and doing very well through it and your argument was sort of they're the fastest horse as

long as they're the fastest horse I'll keep I'll keep betting on them and it's like I guess how much VC coin outperformance uh I need to see before do you need to see before you rotate exactly uh I want to see what happens after let's catch the [ __ ] hot potato it's like let's play Hot Potato with the piece of dynamite positioning it like the out performance is positioning based I I just so my yeah so what yandra said is like my theory for why a lot of these hated VC coins have done really well over the last month or two and to your question like what would I need to see I want to see what happens to them after

the unlocks I have no problem being late to things right like I don't need to by the bottom of stuff like I think that's more of like an exercise and ego than it is anything else so like after all of these things hit the market after these unlocks hit the market I will kind of see how price you know how price trades do we still see all of this you know like bull posting from people on Twitter or or you know or not like I'm kind of curious for that like I'm not sold on it it's it was a lot easier for me to get into like identify Soul as like the main thing I wanted to main ecosystem I wanted to be invested in you know last year after we had a couple of those early reports that you know cedus wrote you know Salon of the monolith blah blah

blah you started to see a lot of stuff happening on salana with you know like jeto Jupiter very reminiscent of you know like eth defi summer in in 2020 you know like you're actually starting to be able to do stuff as opposed to just speculate uh on on the native token or you know just random stuff and it was just like to me it just seemed like very clear that like okay like if salana is where I want to be right and salana goes up to $200 or $500 or whatever it is obviously that money is going to flow through into the ecosystem and looking back at what happened with eth like the best performers last cycle were memes so it's just like okay like I'm just going to run that back and kind of hope that plays out and you kind of got

confirmation of that Playbook with Bon after breakpoint in October 23 so it's like it was quite easy for me to then kind of go into the to the memes that were trading absurdly High volumes very very liquid very early on like right like whiff was even before it did it's like 10x to the billion dollar market caps right it was trading in like the 100 million 200 million and it was trading like it was trading the amount of volume per day no no no I'm trying to explain what you need to look for for healthy trades that trade more in volume than they do in market cap per day like for example Whi was trading more daily volume more 24-hour volume than salana

and eth at times when so so do you see a setup so so are you are you positioned like that on memes now so when you say all season is starting you mean like you're playing that through memes right I haven't bought any more memes I haven't bought any more memes I I hold I hold the memes I owned right because my thesis was I'm gonna hold these memes until I think the Cycle's done um and at no point over the last six months even though we've gotten annihilated have I thought the cycle was done and I still think salana goes up to make probably new new price alltime highs I know market cap all-time highs whatever blah blah blah but like I think it goes up and makes new price alltime highs and in that world I don't I still see these things moving up you know

multiples from here um that said I am looking for other things right like and maybe maybe some of these other you know VC coins if they do prove strength after unlocks I have no problem buying them I just won't be super early but like I think it's more about expectation than than anything like I'm not expecting memik returns out of those coins I'm expecting to be able to go into those with you know more size and you know more liquidity available so it's just like kind of like what game do you want to play what about Yan side yeah so if you think like why they've outperformed recently um you know in a in a complacent Market or a

market that's like kind of gradually trending lower and you're trying kind of make some money you know you start shorting what's what's easier to short uh a meme coin that you I mean a VC coin that you know will have some degree of guaranteed sell pressure or or a meme that can kind of rip in your face a bit more so I think it was a lot easier and and a lot easier to rationalize shorts in the VC coins and so you know they they've underperformed uh quite a bit worse so they're they're going to bounce a bit harder especially with that short fuel you also have some VC that themselves are shorting them right to lock in um lock in gains and and and then you you you've had scenarios where they've get

they've gotten blown out yeah um give give the alpha I haven't I haven't heard of this yeah I'm I'm not gonna name but uh and so you like that contributes to it right and so like um especially with how consensus it becomes right everyone's talked about these unlocks since they've been known which is a year ago and and so um I think that explains some of the short-term moves uh but but yeah outside of that it's just easier to paint a ridiculous valuation on something that has no fundamental value and that kind of just goes back to the reason you know memes end up pumping is

is it's so reflexive and and and there's such a kind of win or take most Market it's it's pretty Barb right where you have um the the the best do well but once they get too rich um there's not as much upside there and and so anyone who's a smaller player then tries to play in in the Pumped out fun and that that was what led to that whole kind of element um but yeah I mean ultimately it's still a really hard Market to to to outperform Bitcoin in right and I think one kind of way to to to gauge that is if you look at BTC Dom this cycle you know you've had pullbacks but and in those pullbacks ALS went nuts and and and everyone thought they you know they're making a

bunch of money but BTC Dom has just been kind of up and to the right if you look at you know from uh let's say like start of last summer right when when we kind of floored we're at 50% even uh starting at June we're at 47 and a half now we're at 57 and a half you know 10 percentage points or like a 25% increase in Dom um and and so and that's with the the launch of all these new tokens that are you know keeping that dra naturally dragging that level lower and so um are you sure I think Bitcoin dominance takes the the doesn't take the total market cap which just includes the top 125 are

you sure it includes old and new launches and how it calculates the you can check it Ono as well that does and real quick oh yeah you go no that that that's a i yeah really enjoying the discussion and what would it take to like invalidate that I guess for for both of you like would it take I don't I'm even kind of confused on people why don't we do everyone go around all four of us and say what we're thinking happens at the end of the year like three sentences clear clear concise are we gonna assume that like Trump wins because like obviously you can you can give you can give caveat just like clear like Trump wins this Kamal wins that just just like so we all understand okay so I'll start I guess so really quick

before I get into that just to kind of put numbers to that volume number that I was you know spouting before if you go look on binance right now you know the most liquid exchange bitcoin's 24-hour volume 40 billion eth 16 billion Soul 7 billion Pepe is the next highest at three billion worldcoin 2.5 soie 1.93 billion and then whiff at 1.8 nobody's trading whiff and it's still a top five coin or top six coin traded on binance and volume so when the market heats up yeah obviously it's going to trade absurdly High volumes that's that's kind of what I mean about about things and then going to your question about now until the end

of the year if Trump wins I think Bitcoin hits all-time highs this year uh or you know moves to new alltime highs is go to 80k 100K I don't know I think your point dunking about 100K is when like retail starts paying attention to crypto again makes lot of sense I know cedus has has said a lot about that I've posted like it's just a big psychological level like seeing Bitcoin $100,000 is going to cause a ton of fomo um I think over the next you know couple months we're going to get additional liquidity injections from China you'll probably see another uh 25 to 50 basis point cut which should start catalyzing those two things that I mentioned in terms of stable coin growth and and you

know credit creation um and I think you know things like salana eth even will do like higher I get I'm I'm still kind of like bearish eth relative to soul and Bitcoin like in order for me to buy eth I would have to sell out of my Bitcoin stack or my salana stack and I just I don't see the uh I don't see the risk reward there for me like I I just don't see it at this point in time especially coming out of like breakpoint I'm I'm more Boldt up on salana which is probably where I would have sold out anyway or sold sold from to go to eth so your bullish majors and and will memes that all mes like only memes that likeit directly from like a native token so like I wouldn't buy like

many eth memes like the honestly like I own Pepe as my eth exposure because I think if eth ecosystem rips that's going to be an obvious uh not I mean it might not be right it could just not outperform but I I think it will like history has shown that it generally does so like that's my like eth beta play um and in terms of Soul like there there are a couple things that that like I'm kind of maybe looking to buy but like in terms of what I currently own now yeah it's it's like whiff it's Bon um and I think that if salana does go up and goes past 200 again uh maybe 250 300 into the end of the year depending on if Trump

wins or not I think both you know both those memes will go on to perform quite quite well um and I'm kind of sticking to that thesis what about you Yan where you three sentences good three sent sorry that was like a mini [Music] paragraph so pre-election low probability of alltime high high probability of of chop um I think as long as we don't really get any kind of scary macro numbers um or or you know serious escalation in uh geopolitics there there shouldn't really be too big of a reason for us to to Nuke

uh I imagine will chop between like 60 and 70 but um and in that time you know alt will will will will do worse than the draw downs and they'll just basically be higher beta BTC um post election I think and and and even on that front right you have like Dom might come back down a little bit but but basically as long as it it pulls back a tiny bit you you that that kind of is commensurate with pretty big alt moves so um I think you'll start to see you know Al alts do well in terms of which specifically on the majors yeah I've kind of moved out of um most of my

eth stack on this recent eth BTC move higher and and kind of shifted to uh uh BT TC and and soul um I mean I was already not very heavily into eth but um I kind of just it's it's been too painful to to endure um and then and then I have uh yeah I have a decent like I basically also shifted some of that eth exposure into Pepe is is kind of I I think it'll outperform eth so I'm like getting that same a ridiculous Market yeah unfortunately I got so I had I have some uh other memes wise I have like you know a decent bag of of whiff and and popcat

I think those are are going to continue kind of doing well uh and then I bought a bunch of Floy for uh CZ stuff with that I've been sitting on for a little while yeah that that's done well although they're trying to do some some real world stuff which is kind of bearish utility on the memes what does the gem Hunter think the fundamental investor I'm thinking um we rally into the election across the board although alt you know BTC sells off alt will sell off more um and then I think the elections like I I don't know I'm putting a lot of weight on the election I think if we get Trump in yeah probably BDC to new High and pretty you

know good environment for alts and there could be just some like craziness because people are so excited um I I think if kamla gets in then yeah BTC could still get to New highs maybe by the end of the year I'm not quite as excited I feel like uh Larry still needs to accumulate more so like I wouldn't be I wouldn't be surprised if we saw like more rangeb bound action and then I think like altz would uh really get kind of crushed in in that environment as um just like the realities of the supply come online like I just think that Trump the excitement

around Trump could offset that I still think those things exist I just think that there could be an excitement that could maybe you know push BTC to new highs and then get retail in I really think that you have to be bearish Al like on a six to 12 month view and unless until BTC breaks new highs and gets retail and that's kind of my like broad Al broad that's regardless of who wins um no well like I said like if Trump I think it's a higher probability that BTC goes alltime highs than then you could you could offset that but I still think the supply picture for alt is is Pretty Tough how would you position like are you positioned are you cash what are you what are you thinking um I'm thinking like you probably gold miners yeah I I have a lot of gold

miners um but I think you probably want to kind of take some risk off into the election um is my thinking and reass afterwards depending on where we are right if if we're in the high 60s then I'm and but and then obviously wait that against how I think the outcome will be which we'll have more information on going into it but it seems like over time her TR her chances should Trend lower as she's forced to do public engagements and and I don't know mutter the same useless stuff but I think it gets really dire if she wins I'm I'm that's what I mean so I just think you just have to kind of uh like I've been taking risk off like slowly like throughout this move up not

in like massive ways but it's like okay like this thing's doing really well like let's just sell a little bit of it and I probably will continue that mindset into into the election that's my view I mean I think I agree with most of what you said I'm bullish Majors um I do think alts as a as a general category will struggle given given unlocks but I do think select alts will do really well including ones that don't have unlocks coming which there are have you heard of a banana gun before I have heard of banana guns surprisingly I have some banana gun it's been disappointing me actually what it's up 4ex this year we're crushing e um and yeah I do think some some some

alss will do well through unlocks like I think yeah unlocks can be over indexed on um and yeah I think Venture will do will do very well generally honestly um and then memes I don't have much of a view to be honest I have a few select memes but it's not a big a big percentage wise of my of my portfolio yeah yeah venture's definitely gotten harder I I only own one I guess pseudo meme yeah venture's gotten harder for sure I think that's more more uh function of where it started than than anything else yeah no one yeah exactly there's just there's just a lot of it now um

yeah I think some of the some of the like older vintages are going to really struggle to return like if they can if they can do if they can return just people's money back they're going to be very happy I think some of the older or or newer H sorry yeah some of the newer vintages some of the like yeah yeah yeah no i' say yeah I mean 21 is is definitely going to be tough isn't that kind of just like a it's Sim to like the IPO market like it's mostly a function of like what Market you deploy into well I mean Venture returns are are the biggest explanatory factor for vent for Venture returns is vintage okay yeah yeah that's what yeah but there there are some like we know traditional as

well yeah I think in crypto there's a lot of dispersion do you guys think I mean this may be like a do you think we'll uh see more liquid funds start to you know pop up and and and deploy into markets like I feel like the like I feel feel like crypto markets are like literally a paradise for people who are good at liquid markets um but like I feel like we just don't don't see many many funds do that and I I've just it's it's rare that you see one do well over a long period of time right like it's it's just it's a paradise but it's also like hell right there's like it's it's so PVP and like so hard you you can get nailed so bad

there are a few that that I know that do really well but I've I've not seen like someone be long-term really successful with that especially people who are who are like short to medium-term trading I think the the hedge funds that did the best that I know of are the ones that just played it like like liquid Venture and just like took positions and stuff and held it for the long term and I I do think that will always do well in general I think just being long in crypto is the easiest way to play this and I still think Venture is going to do pretty well as long as you don't have a massive fund and and you're in you have a decent brand and you're in the right name you're in the right projects on that liquid Venture side though I think the

so the reason we haven't seen too many and particularly too many do well is if if you think of the setup that's required right so new guys coming into the space I think will struggle to do well in liquid Venture because you kind of had need to have seen enough Cycles need to have seen enough stuff play out to to know where to avoid the pitfalls and and and those will often end up you know undoing a lot of a lot of uh strong performance right it's just like mistakes that that would have probably been avoidable had you been around previously but um and then at the same time those that have been around long enough typically have done well enough that they don't the the rationale for going liquid Venture don't yeah it's the

carrots not there because you know if you're gonna make the fund 20% your Capital 80% outside you're probably going to see a massive drag on performance a massive amount of headache all of this stuff just doesn't rationalize you upsizing your liquid bag large enough to to be able to do that and so you kind of have like an adverse selection issue where the the best guys really won't do it and then then you guys are are GNA kind of struggle because you need to have I agree that to do well that makes a lot of sense all right I think we've gone on like nearly an hour and a half maybe we can maybe we can call it here um anyone want to anyone have any last things to say about Marcus that you haven't said

yet or or alts that you that you want to show looking at you gem Hunter no I would just say like if things get crazy for a little bit here like just you know everyone remember things can turn really fast and I just think like the structural uh outlook for Al is just really tough but you know there's still opportunities yeah I think the other thing is and and I've been victim of this myself um not victim but I I've made this mistake uh is you'll kind of go into a bullish setup with a plan and then things start to rip and you're like ah [ __ ] it and you just start pulling all your your you know your cells and so I think that can often come back to bite you and and cause you to roundtrip a lot

more than you than you realistically wanted to or plan to based on how you initially set out uh how you want to exit agreed all right guys it's been another episode of the the hive mind thanks Jason for for stepping in appreciate you guys inviting me back and we'll see everyone in two weeks yeah thanks guys [Music]