Hivemind: Can Crypto Bounce, Monad's ICO & The Perp Opportunity

Transcript

Nothing said on the hive mind is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is strictly forformational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions, not financial advice. [music] Hello everyone and welcome back to another episode of the Hive Mind podcast. Uh today we have a bit of a different crew. We've got myself Cedus, head of research at Deli. We got Jason coming back, head of markets. Uh we got LTR making another appearance appearance on the show on the markets team at Deli.

And then we've got Flip making his second appearance on the podcast on the uh DeFi team at Deli. So this is a purely Deli research uh hive mind. I don't think we've had uh all research hive [clears throat] mind before. So that's good. So yeah, we got uh I don't know. It's been kind of like a weird market. It seems like there's not a ton to talk about, but there have been these a few things that have been happening here or there. I guess we we'll start just with like overall market sentiment.

It's uh Wednesday the 19th, 10:30, just after 10:30 in the morning. Bitcoin is I mean it was looking okay this morning and now it's back under 91K. Everything is dumping again. So yeah, Jason, what's uh [sighs] how's the market been? Uh what's the vibe? Uh I mean it's red again for every day at this point for seemingly the last like what week or two. I guess we've had a couple days that were like flat like mixed in there, but it's mostly just straight down. We've kind of just gone straight down at this point from like um like the top of the range to the bottom of the range like 90 89k,

right? Um that's kind of like the range that was carved out in December before the tariff tantrums blew up the market and then um kind of back there again, right? Time's a flat circle. [laughter] Uh so yeah, I don't know. Market's kind of like obviously like there's just no there's just no spot bid, right? Like clearly TRDFI is is is bouncing nicely today. Um obviously there's still it's still it's still weak, but like it's it's it's it's bouncing and putting in like at least like a sustained rally so far today. And then and Bitcoin is just like the first time you get like one like sell candle in in in equities, you just like immediately puke in in crypto. So you

pretty much are just tracking to the downside and barely tracking to the upside. So, it's just like it's just dog [ __ ] Like there's no like pardon my language, but it's just like the the market is just like not rewarding holding. Um it's not rewarding any like any areas that like you would expect to see reactions. You're just like not really seeing anything. Um so yeah, it's just like in terms of risk appetite and and behavior in crypto, it's just like there's not much to get excited about and then I don't know, you like compound it. It's just like um it's just like yeah, it's just like you don't the I think the the big thing is like you we're just like not tracking with equities to the upside, right?

We're we're effectively decorrelated to the upside and perfectly correlated uh to the downside. So, it's just like for me, I'm just kind of like waiting to see like when there is like some kind of um sustained appetite to bid risk because clearly it is not here at the moment. It almost seems like like Bitcoin has become like a Trump approval rating trade. like Trump approval has been like nuking Bitcoin nukes and then like when Trump's viewed as like positive or viewed as doing good things, it almost seems like that's when Bitcoin pumps.

So, I don't really like how correlated it's it's been to like the Trump trade quote unquote. Um, and that's been kind of interesting to see. That being said, it is a much more global asset. So, but uh yeah, to your point, like if if you know, it's very good that Gemini 3 was was very good and it's good that Nvidia Well, I guess earnings aren't out yet, but like they'll probably hit and like because I think like to your point if equities did like actually nuke Yeah. Like equities are just at all-time highs pretty, you know, they're down a little bit right now, but like they're really close to all-time highs and if they were to actually like pull back a little bit.

>> Yeah. I mean like when uh when what was it the tariffs or Iran dropped and then equities actually new because we literally just like went to like 70k or something. So I can imagine it being much worse this time around. But >> yeah, I think the I think the PTSD for people is that this is exactly what it was at the end of LA of of 21 is that uh >> I remember like crypto had sold off was selling off a lot and I remember all these tweets from people being like >> equities are still at all-time highs like there's no reason to panic >> and uh it was really just crypto being first, right? So, that doesn't mean that the exact same is going to happen this time, >> but it's definitely something

that uh is like getting in in people's heads a bit. Um, >> but I kind of want to go back to LTR's point. Is is is Bitcoin still a Trump trade? Like, I mean, you you had Trump and she essentially shake hands and markets literally went down. Like, Bitcoin went down. Like, so I don't know. I don't know if Bitcoin still is the Trump trade. I meant like approval ratings like >> Oh, approval ratings. Yeah, >> it's a Trump approval rating trade. Like when when approval ratings were like really positive on Trump and on the rise and like people were like, "Oh, tariffs are actually going to work." Like we actually I think bounded well. And then like now everyone's calling his bluff consistently and like >> I just think there there's no like Yeah.

>> What he says carries less weight now. Like we need to see things is what you're saying. >> Yeah. I think it's like the boy who cried wolf at this point. Like nobody takes what he says seriously. and you know, you get like 40 Bloomberg tweets a day um of like his his voice or like his excerpts from his speech and it's just tiring and I think like that's just like people are just fatigued at this point and so it's like they just rather ignore it. >> Yeah. I mean it's crazy because six months ago you'd get some notification from the Bloomberg terminal and all of a sudden markets were moving you know a standard or two standard deviations and now it happens and it's just kind of like yeah whatever on to the next thing.

What's actually happening in the economy? What's actually happening in markets? Is AI a bubble? What's Bitcoin? Like things like that. Fundamentals. Now, >> where do you think we're at, Flip? >> Uh, I've I've been I've been >> Yeah, you've been pretty bearish for a while. >> Yeah, I've been quite bearish uh since the last time I came on. Um, and I kind of hold that like I've lightened up on my shorts a little bit here. Um just given I think you know the the pullback has has been quite healthy and if we continue to go lower you know I'm I'm happy being neutral here. Uh, I've got a fair amount of cash. Uh, got a lot a fair amount of stables and >> Right. Like that's exactly like my point, right? Like I I was talking I was on that Milk Road podcast and like we're

down like 3K from where Bitcoin was, but like right like it's like not really much at the grand. It's like it's like if you're short from like you know if you if you were if you were you know if you flipped bias correctly and you you you flipped short either you know with hedges or just net short or whatever anywhere in that like range high like 110 to 115 or some somewhere up there right? >> Yeah. I mean it was also quite was like somewhat obvious too like after 1010 like there was something clearly wrong. >> Yeah. Yeah, you had no no bid, nothing >> and then you were getting good news from the White House and Trump and markets weren't reacting positively. So like good news was not equaling upside. So it's like I feel like it was quite clear and here like we're you know

>> Yeah. So if you're positioned short from up there, the question is where do you lighten up, right? And like that's how like I generally try to like look for where I think like bottom positioning should like form. And like if I was short from 110, which I wasn't, or 115, right? Um, I would definitely be taking and if I didn't already, you know, take take take some off at like mid-range at like 100, like I would definitely be lightening up if not going relatively full flat because if you're not going full flat or lightening up, right?

You're like expecting you have to be expecting more than a couple more thousands of downside. Like the RI like it's just not worth holding it for like another 2 3k downside if you're risking like a range low bounce back up to 100 or higher, right? like >> yeah, it's no longer a fat page. It's no longer easy. >> That's kind of like one thing I look at as like an area that like you should start to see something happening if it was going to happen and if it doesn't happen like you'll know, right? So like I think this is an interesting spot, right? This 88 89 90K range low area, right? Obviously you can probably puke lower if like you get some liquidation or whatever, but like I don't know mid 80s to 90s seems reasonable right now.

So, I'm just kind of like waiting to see any kind of spot bid return. Like every day it just seemingly like Asia opens and Binance nukes, New York opens and Coinbase nukes. I mean, Coinbase actually has been buying today on the spot side of things, which is maybe >> it's a good time to report record the plot, too, because we've got two big events coming up. We've got Nvidia earnings today and then tomorrow like NFP got moved up to Thursday and you rate. So, you know, these are these are the first prints since the government shut down.

>> So, so basically whatever we say today will be outdated. >> Yes. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. Cut it out. Just kidding. >> Um, so yeah, I don't know. Market obviously sucks, right? And like the easy trade has obviously been been shorting and you've been rewarded for it. And you know, at this point, like as objectively as I can say since I wasn't short, it'd be like I don't know, the riskreward isn't isn't there anymore like it was a week or two ago. So, it's like I don't know if you haven't already been completely blasted by the market. I think like you might get some relief relatively soon into into Q4 and and stuff or into Q4 into December.

>> Imagine you say that Nvidia just misses earnings. >> Yeah. And then Nvidia misses earnings and we just >> just gap down. >> Yeah. I think I think an interesting data point about Nvidia earnings is is retail is actually uh you know they haven't just been full throttling Nvidia every earnings over the last four quarters like they've they've been buying when they beat and they've been selling when they miss. So like we might actually have like a rational market reaction after the bell today just just to keep in mind it's like okay yeah if it you know misses are going to be bearish and and beats will be bullish like it'll be pretty straightforward.

Yeah definitely. >> Um, so yeah, that's pretty like Yeah, it's not really a great view of the the market is just like Yeah, just not >> I think there's just like a weird sense of unease right now. Like perhaps like not like like to your point like I don't I don't know many people who are like wanting to like short here because they're like very very directionally bearish, but I think people are just like almost worried or like uneasy about bidding or shorting because it's just like there there's no clear like path now. You know, even like the the Bloomberg podcast is posting like all these these bubble watch podcast. It I don't know. It's it's a funny time because like everyone's so worried about the bubble and it feels like we're all highly alerted towards the bubble. So, I think there's some like adverse signal

there um and like perceptive bias where like you're you're going to find things that look bubbish even if they aren't there. Um but yeah, it's just an interesting and like uneasy time in crypto. I guess the bull case or like comparison would be the equity market in 2019 that went through like this pretty bearish few month period and everybody thought the [clears throat] big bear was coming and then ended up being okay. Uh I think it was 2019, maybe it was 2018. It was before CO though. Then obviously CO kind of changed stuff around there and then that's that's all history there. But uh yeah, I don't know. I mean, there's been pockets of stuff um like Zcash. We can I mean, we can move

on to this. Like, this is such a polarizing topic. It feels like um I really don't know with Zcash. I think there's like a realistic upside case, but at the same time, uh, you know, if the market really does, it seems like a lot of people might be hiding out in Zcash, too, because it's been doing so well. And, uh, if the market really does turn, maybe that kind of goes with it. Uh, >> it kind of reminds me, funny enough, of like if you remember pre- like um Iran war nuke, everyone was hiding out in hype and it was like, I don't know, 45.

Um, and everyone got slaughtered because it like dipped down to like 20 again, I think. Um, and that's like what everyone held cuz it was like what was strong. It was what was like up, you know, green every day when everything else was nuking. And so everyone's like, I'm just going to go into this, be saved, and lo and behold, it gets slaughtered. I mean, it's it's eventually backs like obviously uh you would have been fine if you held through that but I don't think a lot of people did. So to your point about like a safe haven asset like it does kind of feel like that right now which I mean if we pump and we we bottom like it won't matter but uh if we do nuke I could see like maybe a delayed uh reflexivity to the downside.

I do wonder how exposed it is. cuz I haven't really um gone in and seen how much OI and stuff has been built up since it's I it's been like people have started relisting it too, right, over the last like week or two. Um so I don't know. I I could see it. Um it's obviously one of the only coins that isn't completely devoid of a bid. So like that is something that you have to like keep an eye out for. Um it's just tough like if mo so like the thing is like most people are long biased, right?

Most people don't short, most people don't do that stuff. So like when you're looking at assets to buy, right? Like what are you going to buy when the market is like really apathetic at best and there's just like obviously people are going to crowd into this. So like it makes sense. And like [sighs] would I would I personally buy it here? No. But that's because I bought it a bit lower maybe. So like I don't know. Like I think Zcash pro I don't think the top is in on Zcash to be honest. I think it probably goes up to like 1,200 or something. Um assuming the market doesn't just like Nvidia doesn't miss, Bitcoin doesn't drop to 75K, right? Like assuming we avoid like a full-on just 1010 redo and we just nuke lower across

the board. Like it seems pretty clear like it seems pretty clear to me that Zcash is like where some of the only money that is bidding crypto is right now. Like hype barely like pump is just dead at this point, right? like just down only like um so when there is like even in like you know bearish market conditions like rallies happen like bare market rallies are a thing like you do tend to bounce after drawing down 30% on bitcoin like it's a very standard thing across like you know historical samples like 30% draw downs into into decent rallies right like it's all very standard so like if I'm trying to like be open to catching something like that

which Most people probably are since they're all long biased. Like, what are they going to bid when that time comes? To me, it seems very obvious that most people are just going to go buy the thing that's recovered well, has shown strength, and will probably break all-time highs because I still don't think it's something that's like um well, like it I think supply is relatively cornered on it. I think there's I Yeah, I don't know. I just think it seems like the only obvious trade if the market bottoms for like a >> I feel like I feel like the trades I get burned on the most are the ones that I think that like supply is cornered. So like I'm very like cautious of like doing that especially with like things like the smaller cap tokens anytime I've thought that you know supply was

exactly and then you always see like you know late cycle you see these pockets that do quite well like you know Zcash privacy is obviously one now. Hyperliquids held up relatively decent compared to others and it's like okay we're are there going to be other pockets and if so what are those are they are the the the applications with with buybacks and revenue and you know a constant bit or is it something completely new like privacy? >> Yeah, I mean I think to Jason's point though like if we do bottom everyone's just gonna plow into Zcash because it's going to be like the highest beta to the upside. So I could easily see it making like >> new highs on like a giant spike honestly. So, um, but, uh, yeah, like as far as going forward, it does feel like I don't know, it feels like very much

hot potato in the market right now. Like you're either in those assets that that like Flip mentioned, those little pockets, or you're just like eating, you know, crap day in day out, just just getting whipped. So, it's always funny to see. >> Yeah. I mean, um, some of these coin prices, man, you compare them to the 1010 and they're below like wicks now, you know, >> which makes me cautious bidding like ones that are like haven't filled the wick yet. Like we love talking about filling the wick to the upside and like these stronger coins that have held up well that haven't filled the wick to the downside gives me like like I'm not ready to jump in. Also, like if we're in a K-shaped economy, I don't think we get

a V-shaped recovery like we become a customer. >> Yeah. Like when 1010 happened, I was uh saying how, you know, it's definitely painful, but somebody that doesn't trade pers and just hold spot, it's like not terrible, but then basically I've just had to sit through the last five weeks of it slowly dripping below those number those wicks now, you know? And so it's almost worse in a sense where at least 1010 if you got blown out, you got blown out and you move on. And I'm just sitting here every day like just looking at a little bleed, a little >> we had a quick death. you're having a slow bleed.

>> Yeah. So, >> pick your poison. Yeah. >> I don't know. I mean, there's been some bright spots, though. Um, I think, you know, Metadow has had their ICOs have been pretty successful so far and we'll see if it keeps up. I think uh the I mean the the one that's done best is Avichi and then which is like this Neil Bank thing. Um, and then I think yesterday they had one sell out, but I think the the one yesterday was kind of interesting. I'm not sure if you guys saw this, but Poly Market has been adding these prediction markets for metadow raises. Okay. And so

you're basically there's these prediction markets on what will the total amount of committed capital be on a metad. So the Solomon one was like I think it was like 12 mil they had committed for a while and then in the last hour or two it got up over 100 mil. So then a bunch of these poly market traders were all pissed and now they're calling Metadow a scam because uh the it like cleared that 100 mil threshold at like the last minute. Um but that but that's like the the way these raises kind of kind of work on Metadow. Um it kind of makes sense that you see these massive numbers because you know the team the team ended up raising 8 mil

and there's over 100 mil commitments so people get like 92% of their money back. Um I think one of these days on the metadow sales you're going to see a team take like a lot more in the raise than people maybe expected and then that'll maybe temper this kind of activity. Uh because the way now is like if somebody wants to get a big allocation, you know, if they think this thing is going to be like 10 20x overs subscribed, then to get the amount you really want, you kind of need to put in 10 20x above that, right? And so it's like a pretty big capital commitment. And then you don't actually know that the final amount that they're going to raise until after the sale. So, you know, one of these days if you're expecting a team to raise maybe

like 5 mil and then it gets like 75 mil commitments and they keep 50 of it, uh, then you might see kind of like behavior change here. So, I think that'd be kind of interesting. But, uh, yeah, I don't know how much like attention you guys have been playing paying to metad. I know that a lot of people are kind of skeptical of it working. Um, but from my perspective, it's like the one part of the market that is somewhat interesting these days. Like they have a lot of legit projects launching there with good kind of like token holder rights.

Um, and they have some pretty good momentum. >> Yeah. I mean, it's always cool seeing like new experiments in crypto. And definitely like Metadow has has seemed the most fresh. like it feels more akin to like the cool [ __ ] we saw during DeFi summer and whatnot back when like people were actually like exploring frontiers of crypto. Um so I really like it from that aspect just cuz like it's a breath of fresh air. It's not another per deck. It's not another you know you know hot fun website or whatever. Like we've just seen too much of that and like um so from that aspect I think it's really cool. I think it has worked very well for for getting money to these teams and it's a great place to raise. That being said, like we mentioned in chats before this, like you know, startup startup

returns are, you know, they follow a J curve. So like we we won't actually know how well it'll work for like the these startups until probably two or three years out. Um and like I think that's worth knowing. Obviously from a trade aspect like I did mention on on a recent like podcast I did that uh if we do get like a prolonged bare market, I would be really interested in buying metadow stuff because their their treasury is like locked away, right? So the team is basically forced to to continue to build throughout the bare market to see their return on capital. Um so from that aspect like yeah I mean if we get a bare market I'm probably going to be looking to like buying all of that stuff. Um just because they kind of have to meet their metrics to unlock capital. I think

those performance-based unlocks are like one of the coolest thing that Meta has definitely pioneered >> like the linear unlocks that crypto has like we've done for the last five, six, seven years I think are they've been pretty bad because they they're not the right incentives like the team investors community aren't all aligned and now what Metadal is doing and their other teams leaning into this as well I think is is very good and I think LTR makes a good point. Those are the teams in a bare market that you want to be watching like those those are ones that are going to be super interesting and might have those asymmetric you know Salana like runs when we get back to a full >> yeah I definitely don't think that metadow is like the right structure for every project obviously um I do think though that it is a really

good way to actually get a community uh versus like airdrops or or other kind of methods. Um, I do think that for Metadow to really be deemed a success, I think you need something that launched on Metadow to be worth like multiples of Meta Dow itself, right? I think that's kind of the point. That should be the point of a launchpad is to actually create valuable um projects, right? And like valuable tokens.

And so yeah, I think I've just been impressed with uh you know, these guys have been doing this for basically two years now, gone through a bunch of iterations. They moved on from like the pure fruit to futarchy uh and thinking more about like these practical things of basically making ICOs better. Um I think there's an interesting one coming up that uh I think Flip is pretty bearish on this idea or sector. But um I kind of wanted to talk about just this in general and it's like this is so it's this perp aggregator called Ranger Finance. Um, and we don't have to talk about Ranger specifically, but more

so just like the idea of perp aggregators, you know, we've seen aggregators basically show up in like every sector, right? whenever there's enough uh whenever somebody launches some some some uh primitive and it's very successful and then a lot of competitors come around and then people are using all these competitors and as much as we've had per desk in the past hyperlquid kind of actually kickstarted this new meta right like it's it's funny that like the perpex meta is now while we have had per dexes over the the last few years it was like hyperlquid was the first one that

was I guess really good and actually started competing in a realistic way with the centralized exchanges right and so now you have people doing all these delta neutral farms on like you know they're using lighter paradex hyperlquid drift whatever else um so yeah I think the idea of like a per aggregator is you know you can kind of lower price impact by I guess putting is trade on multiple venues uh and then your collateral and everything. So there's a few projects coming in this area per aggregation.

Um but I think yeah I don't know what you guys like if you guys have strong takes about these. Yeah. >> Yeah. I like I don't want to FUD like range or anything like that because I mean that team's OG. they've been around a long time, but I think perex is one of the things like they're going to do really well and this is where they'll beat a lot of the centralized exchanges is just that they're very they're very composable and they're able to unify margin in one account. And I think that's one of the big unlocks from perexes. Like if perplexes really do become like the Wall Street of the onchain economy and in five to 10 years, I think you're going to want all your dollars in one spot and perp aggregators won't do that. Uh I think one of the superpowers is that all all the

liquidity is already somewhat aggregated and siloed and you know three to four per deck is these big financial hubs and if you end up using a perp aggregator then all of a sudden the capital efficiencies that you get from portfolio margin are gone. Um, and I think you know people that's not a great user experience because we're one of the big unlocks is the the efficiency and capital and I I like using the example like with portfolio margining. If you're a delta neutral fund um like a professional hedge fund like delta neutral um you know you make 7% a year and you're doing pretty good and all of a sudden you get 70 to 90% capital efficiencies through through unified margin portfolio margining. all of a sudden if you want to be riskaverse, you can take that extra 70 to 90% uh in

efficiency gains and just go put in US bills and all of a sudden you're annualizing at 10% and that's a lot of carry and that's quite meaningful. And so that's that's one reason I'm not a big fan of perp aggregators and then also per uh are very different instruments than spot. Uh aggregators work for spot because spot markets are a quite simple instrument and and pers are not and per vary by venue. So like if you have 10 assets on Hyperlquid, Binance and Paradex, the same 10 assets, the the way in which they calculate funding and things like that are very different. So even those pers are different. So I'm not I'm not super optimistic on these perp aggregators, like they might be a great trade and Ranger team has been around for for quite some time, but long term I'm I'm

not sure that's sustainable or the business I want to be a part of. >> Yeah. What if um what if it's like you're using it? Do you think they're useful for like okay, maybe you're not going to put on the same long on like three different exchanges, but if you're running like these people that are running these delta neutral strategies, you know, is it do you think it'd be useful just to do that from a per aggregator in a sense? >> I like I like the trading terminals. I'm a big I'm a big fan of the trading terminals and you know, I think they made a great business for themselves.

The first one that comes to mind is Treadfi. David David's built a great product there and I I use it. Um, and I think it's, you know, a good product and I don't think you need an aggregator for that product. Also, a lot of these trading terminals that are coming online remind me a lot of like the memecoin trading terminals. Like you're starting to see them pop up, starting to get DMs about them and things like that. Um, and so like it kind of reminds me like peak frothiness for that. >> What's like the difference with the terminal and the aggregator? The terminal just gives you the view of all them basically. So like back in the day within Silic right like the first maybe like perex you just get your keys like you can go to your exchange that you use all of them hyperlquid by bit binance

like if you KYC whatever and you can get get a trading key and you just input that in the terminal and you can basically swap in between them and so like on in Silic by bit key and an Iber liquid key you can see all of the assets across both exchanges and then just like trade on each one and it'll just auto route. Um, and then they also have like uh cool uh you know order types that are like specific to incilico that can then execute on like the the API key like iceberg and and like tons of cool stuff like you know limit chases or or swarms that people love and so I agree with flip here like those those are basically aggregators like they are um it but they're just like better I think and it makes more sense.

>> Yeah. I don't think you're going to like the way like if you were to use Jupiter like you're you're the the trade you put on to go you know buy Bitcoin or buy Salana or whatever it go it might go through three different venues. I don't think you'll do that with per you go through one and I think the trading terminals are fantastic products as they stand today. >> Yeah. usually like terminals. I mean like when you go talk to people in DryFi, right? Like they they have their trading terminals and then they like build out their own infrastructure that will actually manage the risk that they have across the different venues, right? So they can balance all of their different positions, hedge things out, whatever they're doing, right? And so like to me it seems like that's probably the route it'll go here, right? Because

it seems like it worked there and it that's how it's done there. And I don't see like yeah, I don't know why an aggregator would do better than than that, but um I'm curious. be able to handle like the risk well. >> That's like the main thing because most most most sophisticated shops will build out their own risk engines beyond the terminals to manage the things themselves. So it's like >> I don't know what the aggregators would would do better than the terminals right now. I mean I I've used Encilico for years and years and years and it's it's fantastic. Um >> yeah and I think to to your point like I think a lot of the risk that's being managed I think is will be also quite complex like when you've got vaults that have spot per per equities per futures

crypto spot crypto options binary options and prediction markets like I think I think that's quite a complex thing to do and I think a lot of people will struggle with that especially if it's consensus based instead of something like more akin to ZK and Cairo VM I think I think they'll really struggle and so that's why I think specifically the per dexes who leverage some sort of zero knowledge proofs to help the scaling of the unified margin are probably a little bit better suited uh to do this >> and manage risk appropriately. >> What's the latency on like a per aggregator? Because obviously like the insil is not much latency because you're going directly via like API keys but like I'd imagine an aggregator would probably have more latency for trades.

No, >> it makes sense. I would assume I'm not sure what rangers. >> Yeah, I'm not sure either, but >> there's probably different levels of permissions I guess you can give them, too. >> Yeah, >> speed bumps. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Right on. Well, yeah. I mean, I guess that that makes sense. Um, but there there are a few per aggregators coming to market. So, I think worth keeping an eye on that sector. I know Paradigm invested in one [clears throat] as well. I saw a few months ago.

Um, but yeah. Yeah, it's like interesting just with like the purp of everything. Um, >> yeah, I'm starting to I'm starting to get DMs about like pers on like Pokemon cards and stuff like that, CS skins. I think that's, you know, I'm not sure like how well those works and specifically like the like the the private private market like per like I'm not as it stands today, I'm I'm happy to be proven wrong. I don't love that idea just because like coming from traditional finance I know fund managers underwrite individual positions differently than a different fund manager and you know there's not a huge delta there but there is a delta there and the delta between those guys and what Bloomberg and these other you know

news sources will put out that is are quite wide so I'm afraid that you're going to start to see some of these private companies uh that that have perks or you're going to see big marktomarkets I'm afraid uh and this is by no means to FUD them I'm just like happy to be proven wrong and and see their methodology, but I'm I'm quite concerned that you'll see a fair amount of mark tomarket there. I don't think you need to perpify everything. I really don't. >> Yeah, I would agree. Feel like I'm a bit overboard on that. Um >> well, a lot of them actually like introduce like so they have like their their like for the private company stuff, it's like they they get their actual valuations from whatever's like posted, right? Like oh, they raised it this and this. But then like in the

delta in between those times when they can actually get like valuations, they basically like introduce like a 30-day SMA or something that just like simulates volatility. >> Um so then like the perks are more interesting to trade quote unquote. And so like I agree with Flip here. It just it just doesn't make a lot of sense at least for these like very nonfgeable illlquid assets that are mostly traded via OTC or whatever. It's like uh you know you could suddenly have like some standard deviation outlier on a Pokemon card that gets bought for I don't know 3x explorer or whatever for some asinine reason and suddenly like the perks will you know basically shoot up and then basically get nuked back down and probably just liquidate a ton of people.

So >> yeah, I'm not even sure who would market make that like who who's providing the liquidity there for something that that niche. Like I I don't know. I think I maybe there maybe there's people out there doing it and they're like there's already a market maker for it and I just don't know about it. That seems like a lot of risk that market maker would take on. >> Yeah, fair enough. Um, Flip, you were in Singapore recently. >> Yeah. >> Right. >> I think you met with a lot of the perp teams right? >> Yeah, I I tried to meet with as many as I could, a few funds, few market makers and things like that. It was it was a lot of fun. The energy out there in Singapore uh is is quite good. Um it's it really is like this like hole people

go into to like just grind for years and like really just lock in. And it was fun being in person with some of these teams. Um you know they're all they're all grinding. They're all they're all in the trenches. Um got to meet with Bullet. Um and you know got to meet with with Tristan and the crew and it was it was fun to see them work. Uh they're really excited about mainet. Um I've always thought those guys were incredibly sharp. So, I'm very excited to see mainet come, you know, hopefully by the end of this year and get to use their product a little bit more because in test net there's only so much you can learn. Um, but very excited for what they're doing. And then also and like I think they they really understand like architecture like they built their their uh their chain really well I think and

they're going to be able to scale with unified margin with transactions and whatnot. So like I think assuming they can execute and the founders stay on top of or like you know they don't get behind the Aball I think they'll do quite well. And the other team that I spent a lot of time with was Paradex. Uh, and I I've, you know, written a report about Paradex. I follow them quite closely. Uh, friends with Anon now and Rob and the team there. And I I continue to be impressed there. And it was really uh telling when I came into the office the first day and worked with them. They they operate with such urgency and intensity day in day out from, you know, 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m.

They are they are grinding and it is very intense. Like they are all they're all shipping. They're all locked in. They know what they're doing. Uh, and the team is, you know, very diverse. It feels like a football team was put together. Um, so I I I did enjoy seeing that. There weren't many copycats. They're very efficient. Um, so very excited for what they're building and I think the architecture and microstructure designs that no one wants to talk about because they're quite nerdy and in the weeds. I think the benefits of those are going to really start to come to light and you kind of already seeing that a little bit now. uh you had Binance announced they're doing RPI orders uh yesterday uh which is what which Paradex does and they've they've really leaned into so I'm quite optimistic for that and I think um

they're they're an incredible team that ships at an incredibly high rate and I'm excited for uh data options and multi-leg strats to come to the platform so very excited for for what's happening there as well. >> Right on. It's interesting that all the per guys work out of Singapore. Singapore is a weird place to me. It's like, >> yeah, >> it it's kind of like Yeah, but it's like >> it's they have a lot of strict regulation, >> but then also they don't, you know, it's like like maybe to build out of it, it's okay, but then you don't want to like maybe use some products out of it. I don't know.

>> It was cool though. It was fun. Like the the culture there is fun. The team's there. There's a lot of energy. You know, you're in a Wei work, you've got Falcon X, you've got Spartan, you've got Paradex, you big like it was fun. Like the energy there is good for Pers. It was fun. It was it was you know plus EV trip. Good to meet these guys and incredibly excited for the products they have coming. And then I mean you had you had lighter raised too which was cool. Um lighter just raised from Robin Hood and a bunch of other people. They missed out. They raised 68 million instead of 69 but you know we'll let that slide. Um but like that's an interesting product that'll be be coming to market or the token will be coming to market soon. Um and I think I think it's

>> Yeah. Go ahead. >> 1.5 right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Which I think was I thought was quite cheap. So they must be doing and so like DeFi Llama just came out uh with revenues uh for for lighter at like 250 million annualiz. I think that's quite high. I think that should be cut by at least a half maybe more. Uh I've done some estimates and I think their premium flow of volume is a lot closer to like 25 30%. Uh it might be closer to 40 today just given people are farming premium account. So for people who don't know they're premium accounts or accounts that pay for flow and they they they get you know latency advantages and generally speaking that's user market makers but recently after 1010 they increased the points distribution to people who had the

premium account. So you've got retail users paying for premium accounts to farm points. Um and that percent of flow I think is much closer to like 20 25%. Um and if that's the case their revenues are you know closer to like 80 to 90 million annualized. So, I think I think uh the investors actually probably got quite a good deal on lighter at 1.5. Like, if I had been offered that, I definitely would have taken it as well. Um I think there's a good team and it's clear that Robin Hood wants wants that connection uh to, you know, hopefully at some point integrate lighter into the Robin Hood platform.

>> Yeah, I could see that. Um >> and I think I think you saw I mean you saw Binance really rush to market with Aster, too. So I think you're seeing these bigger centralized uh parties realizing that they need they need a they need a purple arm. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think like this is actually something we're writing about in our year head >> is like the super app idea. And I think that the super app is going to be from one of these centralized entities, right? So I think like Robin Hood is one that could do it. I think Coinbase is one that could do it. I think Twitter X is one, right? like they have they don't have the the finance or like the trady or the crypto integrations, but they have arguably the hardest one to get, which is the large social network,

right? Um and so I do think that this whole super app idea is coming. And so yeah, Robin Hood investing in lighter makes sense there if they're going to I'm assuming that they would probably do something with that with Robin Hood. Um, and so yeah, it will be interesting to see kind of like how how we go here with these more centralized entities coming in and how they kind of navigate uh crypto. I think um a few other things like um Monad is doing their race now.

They're going next week. seems like they haven't tapped out demand yet on Coinbase. I'm not sure if that's like all just Monad specific or just people just like don't have money, right? Uh, >> I think it's also because of the the the way the sales set up with like the the lowest contributions get like priority to the most amount and so like it's kind of discouraging like the power law um funders to like full send, you know, like we saw with like Mega ETH, we saw it with plasma, like a lot of these sales end up being just like a gas war to who can send 50 mil or whatever with whales. Um, and so like I do kind of like the Monad system where yeah, maybe

they don't fill their entire ICO, but like Keon came out and said like that they're basically their goal is to achieve widest distribution. So I think it's like an interesting experiment at the very least like if you do reward um the lowest contributors with like the most tokens um could be kind of >> I didn't realize that. What do you mean the most tokens though? Just like they get the allocation that they ask for >> it. flip or someone might know better than me because I I didn't look into it too deeply. But so the way the sale works is like it prioritizes like distribution over like money as far as like capital commitments per person. And so like this is me like off the top of my head. I think the mechanism works like

um they're basically trying to to give people who give 1 to 10k um allocation first like basically it's giving them the allocation first. I don't think they get more per dollar per se but like it's incentivizing like >> yeah the price is fixed so it's just like they get filled. That is interesting. So they're prioritizing giving it to more people. But yeah, that does make an interesting game if like if you do the full allocation. Could you actually get zero because there's so many of these smaller ones? Um >> it's going to be interesting. And there's like the game theory of like getting your your Coinbase ICO score up because like they mentioned like you

might have less access to next ICOs. Like it's kind of like how Robin Hood does their IPOs, right? like if you just like do an IPO on Robin Hood and then like full stack once it comes out like you don't get access to IPOs on Robin Hood for a bit I think. So like there is that element to it to like where it's like a little bit of game theory where maybe you want a good rep score on Coinbase for future Sonar Echo or just like Coinbase ICOs in general. Um, but like I don't know. I'm pretty optimistic to like see both Mega EHT and Monad come out because like tech-wise like they're pretty good chains and like there's some cool app ecosystems on them at least and so it'll be fun to say the least to have more of like another fast consumerish chains launching. So, it's going to be

fun. I still don't understand like what's what's like the pitch for Monad. That's so one like I also don't like follow it super closely. Like what's what's the thesis there? What's the narrative? >> Uh just that it's uh the most performant EVML1 >> general purpose or they got like an app they're really putting weight behind. >> Uh they have a big lineup of apps. They don't have one that they're like championing. They do. That is one of the critiques I think from people is that they don't they haven't been picking winners and pushing them right. Um so we'll see.

They do have a lot of apps going day one which I think gives them a pretty good shot and uh yeah I mean I think uh I I'm pretty bullish on that ecosystem developing over time. Uh, I wouldn't be surprised if like there's roll-ups on Monet at some point just because it is a good place to launch roll-ups because it is performant as like single soft finality and everything and that's kind of what you need in a you know a layer that's going to facilitate roll-ups. Although that's like nothing to do with their uh their road map. That's just something I think you could maybe see one day. And then yeah, Mega E2 they're doing their mainet in December. So

we'll see how liquidity kind of gets shifted around all these different venues. Um do you think that like so it seems like throughout the years we always have these longtail things that bring in retail, right? Like Monad and Mega ETH launching on their own is not going to change the amount of users in crypto like everything equal. So you'll kind of just expect liquidity to shift from other areas. But we always have these things like DeFi summer and then NFTTS and then memecoins and then per you can probably say that are like net new bringing new people in. Um I don't know what are you guys kind of thinking like this next and then basic

because like basically once one of these longtail games gets played out it's kind of like over you know like the DeFi games don't last long anymore. The the meme coins do not run anymore. or NFTTS have been in a bare market since 2021, right? Um it's like once people figure out the game, it's kind of like over and that game is figured out. And so obviously it's hard to predict exactly what the next big retail onboarding event is going to be. Uh my inclination is that like I'm hoping there's some sort of social thing and maybe Monet or Mega E or one of these to do it. Um, but I'm curious what you guys think would

bring retail in. And I'm not talking about just, you know, you have you have like these tempos of the world that are going to have people starting to use blockchains in the back end. I mean, like actually bringing net new users. >> I mean, I think prediction markets have been that because it's like a safer way to grow a smaller stack. Like everyone shouts about liquidity, right? Like, oh, there not enough liquidity for power law users. And while that's true, it also means that they're very friendly to someone with like 200 bucks or 500 bucks. they can easily like two, three, you know, 5x their stack in relatively quick succession, which is like it reminds me a lot of how I got my start like flipping whitelist NFTts because it was kind of similar like you you kind of know like okay this is like a safe mint

probably going to make money on this and like sure maybe you weren't like having these huge power law outcomes like you did with memecoins, but it was safer to like grow a small stack and it felt a little bit less like gambling. So I think like the appeal to prediction markets is definitely there. Um because like there are certain ones that are like, you know, you can basically just put a,000 bucks into like a 70% 80% market that you know is basically guaranteed to be 100% and just make a quick 20%. Um that being said on like the the more power law outcome side, yeah, I don't know. Um I think like the upside of crypto is that it's basically an entirely free market and as such like we've seen in the past with NFTs and meme coins like when there is a lot of

profit to be made more firms enter you know classic economics like you know economic profit goes to zero market becomes too efficient all the new tools launch botting multi-wallets you know vamping and stuff and then like there's no profits to be made anymore and so whatever the next thing is I don't know I think there will be a next thing I think it's just going to look much different um whatever it might Yeah, I I tend to think uh what we've seen like we had we had DeFi summer, we had meme coins, we got prediction markets, pers I think it's just like the next iteration of those as those products become better. Uh specifically per as like the onoff ramps get integrated into the platforms as risk and the risk you're taking becomes more understandable and visible. I think

that brings on a lot of a lot of users like from my trady background I've got a fair amount of friends who who do like pers who do like that trading interface because that's very uh you know what they're used to but like they still haven't they still haven't come on chain yet they're still not trading on these platforms yet and I think as as the onboarding friction uh slowly slowly goes away over the years a year hopefully I think I think those bring on a lot more users because that's something people are used to um I mean it's kind of why people come into crypto in the first place like I remember when I first got into crypto it was it was trading Doge on Robin Hood like it's the trading aspect I think for a lot of people and as the friction to get

onboarded uh to these to these platforms continues to go away I think we we see a lot of uh user growth there it's tough right like I mean I don't think the next massive wave of people coming into crypto or coming in for like financial like apps like trading and stuff I just like it's super popular for us right cuz like it's it's the world we live in. It's like our backgrounds a lot of us like prior to crypto like finance, trading, things like that. Um but like I don't know there isn't much of a like when I talk to all of my friends who aren't finance people or crypto people like trading is not something they they entertain the idea of doing at all. So like I think it has to like like a real

like driver of like new blood into crypto. I think it has to come from something other than trading products. I just don't >> Yeah, that's my thing. It's like one of the uh I did this podcast with uh A Priori who's a NMA guy coming out this week and like we talked about all this stuff and the biggest, you know, I guess issue with crypto historically is that whenever we onboard people, we onboard people as traders and that's just like not sustainable. It's like not >> Yeah. Because it's zero sum, right? Like >> and it's like most people are not traders, man. this is like not and so that's why as much as you know the the streaming meta and everything and the content creator coins is yeah it you need gambling for it to all work for the

wheel to run but the people coming in don't need to actually be doing that gambling themselves right and so it's like a baby step on getting somewhere where you can actually have people come in and just earn and not have to become traders right so I do think that that's kind of the the only way like we've probably onboarded most of the trader types, you know, in like mid- teens to, you know, mid30s at this point. Um, I think if you're in that age group and you haven't come on yet, then you're probably not for like pure trading stuff. And so, yeah, you kind of need and prediction markets is an

interesting one, but it's still kind of like it's still like, you know, gambling in a sense there. So, Yeah. I mean like um as like a college student like I think fundamentally people don't realize how financial adverse like most normies hate finance talk. Like that's why they have an FA. That's why they have an accountant do everything to do with their money. They have like you know Rocket Mortgage they have auto savings app that auto direct money because they just hate it. And it's not because like I don't think I mean the lack of financial literacy is there sure but it's also like they just don't want to spend the mental acuity or bandwidth on that kind of thing. they'd rather spend on what they actually like doing. And so like to Sutters's point, I think you do need to like hobbyify it in a sense like and like I think again like

they try and force trading to be that hobby where it's not like most college students at my college. They all play sports um fantasy fantasy sports, right? Like they all gamble on fantasy sports or low stakes, whatever. But they don't do it to like make more money per se. Like they're not doing it to like try and make it out the hood or whatever quote unquote or to like trade or or hit that big parlay. Like they literally do it for like social fun. Like you know they gather their homies around on a Friday night and then like they're all bet and so like there's the skin in the game and like it's fun and like um that type.

>> For sure. For sure. My my fantasy league is year 16 now and I give zero shits about winning the money. Like it's not the money. I don't I don't care about that. Right. But like I think people see like how big FanDuel is or whatever and then they extrapolate that to mean like all these people are like trying to make a ton of money on these platforms and like are traders and then they they put that into the TAM of these like social trading apps or whatever that are inherently very zero sum in PVP. Um so yeah, to your point like I think probably the next thing will probably be more socialified. Um I'd imagine but like I think I think you'll kind of know it when you see it if you've been in crypto long enough. like a lot of these trends are very easy to spot like

culturally. >> Yeah. [clears throat] Yeah, I agree with that. Um, all right. Well, I think that's like all our topics for today. I don't want to run this too long. It's been kind of like I don't know, the last month or so. It just feels uh it's just such a weird environment. I do think things will eventually turn around and uh you know sometimes people could sometimes lose interest during these dead times but I always think that these are important times to like keep paying attention so that when things do change you're like fully um engaged and like alert of like what has actually been happening right you don't have to play catchup so you know as much as these times can be boring or they suck I also sometimes see them as

like an opportunity um to like set yourself up better when things come back. >> LTI LTR and I were chatting about this yesterday. The the best part about bare markets and why we like bare markets is it's so much easier uh to find teams who are actually building and grinding in the trenches and you don't get distracted. >> Yeah. You you have way more time to like do stuff. You don't feel you don't feel rushed. I I always bring up like man like I bring up this to flip in this exact conversation like Pendle and Maple like to like DeFi blue chips now were at like zero post FTX and like their teams were just like grinding through that bare market or like virtuals was like a gaming Dow and they pivoted to be and now they're like the the biggest you

know crypto ACP agenic protocol like so I think like it is it is like really good selection during a bare market. So, if you do have that cash and you haven't just been absolutely dogwalked in in spot, then uh I think it'll be pretty clear like eventually like, oh, this team has really stuck around, probably a good bid, you know, it's not really going to go down anymore. Um, and that's kind of why like I think like the metadatal futur stuff could be interesting during a bear. Um, or just anything that does have like a carrot dangled in front of them, so to speak, so that they want to continue to build.

>> Cash is king, right? I remember I mean it it was a different environment but in 2021 I was working at a a trifi shop and one of my mentors his name was Scott and he his profile name on Slack he changed it to cash is king and it's just like in in bare markets and drawd downs regardless of what the dollar is doing like having cash is king so always have some cash on the sideline. >> Yeah cash is king and then cash is trash and you just go back and >> yeah it is it goes through cycles but right now cash is king. Uh well, all right guys, good up. Um next week is US Thanksgiving. So all the Americans, um happy Thanksgiving. Sure it'll be a quiet week. Uh overall, um make sure that you shield crypto to

all your relatives because I think we need all the support we can get. >> Everyone should Zcash to their grandma. >> Yeah, we really need all the all the support. Yeah, maybe Yeah, maybe coales around a few coins. Don't like, you know, we have too many tokens. >> Like grandma, you can play bingo privately and you can like tax evade. It's gonna be so great. >> Yeah. Um but yeah, cool. Thanks for uh joining, guys, and we'll see everybody see everybody again in a couple weeks. >> Awesome. Thanks, guys. [music]