Hivemind: BTC's $100K Run, Ethena's Yield Meta, and Our Bull Market Bets

Transcript

look at this Hua thing from like yesterday right that is like some massive rug where all these insiders were like preing to to this is the kind of stuff that that's all that pump was it was just people want to trade think about the whole pre-sale matter that's what I mean it's not it's not a real thing no but it's solved a problem where people want to speculate on memes without the risk of getting fleeced yeah that's that's the problem to solved it doesn't feel like it's that aspirational of a problem though it's all just kind of trading these things I'm thinking is there more of like a but that's everything even like even the stuff Point even the def stuff we talk about is cycle will get something more well that's what maybe the AI stuff is that

right like Dream a Little Man nothing said on the hive mind is a recommendation to buy or sell Securities or tokens this podcast is strictly for informational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions not Financial advice [Music] hi everyone welcome to another episode of the hive mind podcast the goal of the podcast is to provide an inside look into what we like to call the deli hive mind bringing together some of our brightest Minds from each of the divisions to share insights Alpha and [ __ ] posts today with us we have the usual crew cedus heads up our research

arm Yan managing partner at Deli Ventures and Venture partner Duncan also known as flood capital and self-proclaimed gem Hunter I split my time between Deli Ventures and Deli Labs our protocol R&D arm focused on incubating and accelerating New web3 Primitives this is a special episode bitcoin's just hit 100K I think two episodes ago um we had we ended the episode by making predictions of when Bitcoin would hit 100K uh I think all of us said next year except Jan who said who said this year uh which seemed uh pretty pretty bullish at the time but uh yeah giving you your credit Yan you can take a little little Victory

lap on that and maybe we can go around the horn and see how everyone's feeling about about Bitcoin and and markets generally can start with the with Y Yan I think everyone's kind of at the like going forward expecting you know there's do we do we get a big pullback into end of year or is is the inauguration kind of a sell the news event um I think it it really boils down to the Strategic Reserve right if that happens I don't think you you're really going to get any kind of meaningful pullback um so far every flush that we've seen after funding got hot uh it was was bit up pretty quickly and and so you kind of had these like mini dips

um and yeah I mean if if if the reserve happens you're kind of just going to continue grinding higher uh you know Trump loves when markets are doing well he's he's made that clear many times he even did his his own congratulatory tweet on on bitcoin hitting 100K and so I think he's going to take a lot of kind of personal pride in in seeing that thing go up um which I think you know only increases the chances of of getting this Reserve done um I guess the the the question because it's all you know it's all about uh Market expectations versus like what's pric in versus what happens and so I I think the the base case is we kind of just continue going

higher I think biggest opportunities for any kind of dislocation would be um if we start seeing a lot of uh basically seeing the reserve really get priced in and then there's some kind of a delay I think that would probably be the the reason for a flush but outside of that I mean I think it seems like sailor is going to continue bidding with Master Premium saying strong so he's going to continue deploying and and if he's doing that then then others obviously know because it's pretty telegraphed and and kind of causes a lot of reflexivity there um you're even seeing like EF starting to get inflows um which is which is kind of unexpected I guess

for a lot of people um yeah I mean Market looks good I I think you're going to get these periodic flushes you know I'm we're talking on on a span of like a weekly basis or something like that or maybe even shorter as as uh leverage gets a little ahead of itself and um and then I I guess to add to the bare case there's a lot of tokens going up right and so there's only so much money that can kind of support all of this so I think you'll you'll see Bitcoin become an easier High conviction long but as you get more dispersion um it's going to be harder to to pick winners and so um you know you can be confident around BTC

and then probably some of the majors right like you know your your eth soul and and and some others and you know whether they outperform or underperform Bitcoin TBD I think you kind of need to think about it on like shorter time Horizons if you're trying to trade that but question um what what do you think about like xrp and cardano and I guess like Dogecoin too a lot I'm doing really well like does that concerning at all or you think that this is just like too like the Strategic Reserve is just too powerful or do you think that kind of yeah yeah no it's definitely a red flag like if you if you know if you map historical times that that be xrp has done these kind of moves they were very close to like cyclical

tops um the difference being that yeah the Reserve I think is it's it's there if there's ever a time for this time to be different this this would be it because you have this monster bid that that can come in and and it's usually you know those have been tops because BTC has made the majority of its move and then the risk shifts elsewhere and and basically everything periodically pumps and after everything is pumped there's basically nothing left to go up and and capital kind of starts to flee but if you still have money moving into the space then I I I I I wouldn't fade solely because you know the the previous top signals um are

triggering here yeah also I think I mean we kind of talked about it on the last pod about the xrp thing they didn't it it hadn't happened yet um we kind of talked out it wasn't like retail it was like kind of smart money talking about this and a lot had to do with the regulatory environment with the Ripple guys being like pretty in tight with the Trump admin and I mean Ripple xrp um it didn't participate in the last cycle right which is actually kind of rare um and the float like the actual float that is tradable is so low and I think you can make the the case that like last cycle the reason why it never did well is because Ripple was just selling xrp like the entire time pretty

aggressively and this cycle I don't know like if they just like stop selling I guess and and then resil likes it and then you have other Traders getting into it like it doesn't I don't think it takes the market cap is massive right but it's like there's there's so much Supply that is just held by like the team it kind of just depends what percent of the supply do you think is not is actually tradable because they're doing pretty massive volumes like just today 30 billion in volume is pretty crazy like what uh do you like the market cap is 130 billion do you think it's like how much of that do you think more than half the supply like I know more than half the supp is just like

insiders and like Ripple and everything I don't know how much is actually being traded and like listen I'm not going to I'm like out on the dino coin rotations like I'll let other people play that game I just know that I'm going to lose money if I do that and so like if you told me today that in a month xrp is $10 I would be like honestly yeah maybe like I can see it happening because like it's just I don't think I think it's easier to move it than the market cap would like suggest um on the just one did you guys see the the pal comment about how bitcoin's a competitor to gold and not that seemed like ridiculously bullish to me it seems like he said that

before I think it's not this time we had did he yeah I I looked that I saw that he he said that in 2021 as well um yeah it's a good way to deflect away from this being a risk to the dollar while also winning favor among all the the bitcoiners I guess I think like going back to to what you were saying y about like Bitcoin versus Alt like so do you think it's possible we just go back into the regime of like March like once BTC kind of tops and starts consolidating you see like obviously when it IT topped just like recently just before 100K we saw Bitcoin dominance fall a good chunk and then we had a lot of these alts run but do you

think um because I agree like the Bitcoin strategic Reserve seems super powerful and you know if the US is buying that's probably going to make other sovereigns buying and you know it's pretty hard to fade that when it's literally the people with the money printers deciding to buy Bitcoin but on on the alt side do you think it might be a situation where you know Bitcoin might top or go under a period of digestion and then alts like just fall off a cliff like kind of like what we saw after March and earlier this year um I think if they'll they'll nuke for sure assuming we're at a like very froy point right they they've kind of been trending higher with it funding's been going nuts and and you've seen anytime

it pauses like lots of things fall 5% immediately so I I imagine you get a flush but I think the difference from here in 2021 is that not everything will bounce um you you've seen things that bounced really hard a few weeks ago no longer bouncing right like certain memes just don't have the same bid that they did um so I think you know what ends up happening is there's still this hot ball money round but there's so many alts that before you'd see everything kind of Pumped uniformly and now it it's you know you kind of have to get ahead of the next narrative to some degree um and it's it's a hard game right it's like if you can nail that you you you can really

do well and I think the the best thing to do is is not to try and get ahead of every single one because you'll end up just being late to a bunch um it it's it's two two things so on one hand you don't want to be the first one in because there's a chance like you're you're gonna have a higher hit rate being like the second or third one in once you see the trend happening um but you kind of have to have like a few potential Trends in mind and then see which ones are picking up first and then immediately hopping into those rather than I think trying to be the first money in um cuz yeah like you'll make more than being second or third but but you know there's a a much higher rate of missing at the same time so I'm I'm

personally not trying to nail the rotations at all uh and just kind of staying put in the stuff I'm high conviction on like well I'm I'm like I'm definitely moving narratives I'm yeah I'm not I mean I have like yeah I'm not I know that that that kills me in the in the bull market not just in terms of returns but also just like mental strain of just like keeping up with a bunch of different narratives trying to catch them um and I think the one thing to remember in the bull market is all you need is one in size that you have high conviction on which is which brings us to Athena which no but I was going to say though the narratives it's like yeah it's important that you're not rotating between every

narrative but when you recognize a narrative that seems like pretty likely it's getting much much bigger like the AI stuff that like doesn't make sense to just ignore that in my opinion um this is like the first thing and we kind of talked about this a while ago uh like this meme coin spective Capital was looking for something else and I think a lot of that is going into the whole like AI narrative um yeah I agree you should have some exposure to the AI narrative I think we've been we've been talking about that for a while on this on this show yeah yeah I agree with your point of not try and catch that's what I said like you don't need to catch the xrp move you don't need to catch the Litecoin move like Dino coin animal memes back to mes to Ripple memes

like I just think that stuff is is uh yeah it's just tough to I think there are very few people making money trading like that and also just knowing what you're good at and what you like to do I think and like just doing like especially if you've had a cycle or two like not trying to yeah I was listening to THX Javi was talking about trading like the dino coins once they've moved and like that's something I would never do clearly it's working for him uh I think everyone has their own this is diverging in the bull market is the worst thing is like the the way you can cost yourself the most I think but yeah your point your point about like what do you actually care about too like I was talking to Jason about this um who you know likes trading the animal

coins and all that and I was talking about the AI stuff and it's like the AI stuff I actually have a genuine interest in trying to figure out and trying to think about like how that can evolve whereas the animal coins I have literally zero interest and so it the odds that I'm going I'm going to do just as well on animal coins than like the AI agent stuff is like way lower right because I just don't have like a natural interest I don't care about it so I think it's important like yeah your point of like staying in your lane when it's a bull market you see a lot of people you see a lot on like Twitter you see a lot of um yeah it's just a lot going on and being

able to like kind of be I guess like Zen yeah not fomo not be like coping about everything like you're going to miss a ton of stuff um you just need to kind of like relax yeah you're gonna miss most things and then the last thing you want to do is start like rage chasing because you're missing and and you know people on Twitter are going to say like they're going to pretend they caught everything because part of it is just building a follower base right so so don't take that as oh man there everyone's doing well except me and so now I need to compensate somehow um other like the the last thing you want to do is kind of lose your mind doing that in a bull and and just massively underperform because

you're late to kind of everything as as a yeah because you're chasing yeah whenever someone messages me like oh this coin's up 100% I'm just like fomo is the mind killer just like find a few things that you have like high conviction in or feel like the fundamentals are good caniz into and just wait on and then just like wait like you'll probably get your turn you know sometimes it doesn't happen but you know at least on one of your things you'll you'll get your turn and then and it versus like trying to chase all these things is just impossible and then there's also like a massive survivorship bias on Twitter where not only do people like you know kind of LARPing about catching all the moves um but just a

surviv ship bias of like if someone hits an insane trade that gets shared around a lot versus like you know the 99 other people who like missed or didn't do well yeah no one that doesn't get shared so most people most people have like jobs as well right like even if you're working in the industry like very few people are full-time Traders and I think it's really going to detract and like the Returns on your job have probably gone up a lot during the ball Market too just like making the right Investments or or whatever it is if you're distracted with like 50 coins that you're holding in small size low conviction like small size low conviction is is the most distracting I think at least for me personally it's like you just forget about it then you feel bad like ah I forgot I bought this

thing and it's dumped now or or like you know you feel bad that it pumped and you didn't buy enough uh you feel bad you missed it like yeah I think lower doing less things in bigger size with conviction and remembering that you you really only need one um and you're going to get and and and yeah IE that that's kind of I prefer to operate yeah and and part of part of the the the real benefit of of operating with conviction is that you're not constantly if you're if you're low conviction and and you buy something and it pulls back now you're just like kind of second guessing the entire uh situation right and so you're you're constantly in this unnecessary like mental Battle of oh man it's down should I should I sell is it going to

keep going lower whereas if you can actually build conviction then you know if you have dry powder and it pulls back it's an opportunity and and then if it doesn't and it goes up then you're just like oh I should have bought more but like all right sure but you're still doing well so it's it's also just it it makes dealing with pullbacks a lot easier because you view them as an opportunity not as a mistake kind of thing and this is like why I avoid Dino coins because I have zero conviction in Dino coins and so the minute I buy xrp it's going to dump and I'm going to feel like an idiot and I'm going to have absolutely zero conviction to like hold on to xrp you know what I mean yeah imagine owning Swift though cus did you see did you see the gor

tweet about it I think that that that's what I'm quoting good yeah um all right do we want to move on to to yeah go ahead go on I was gonna say like the uh like the all the tweets I mean the the humor is unmatched just like Market Cap N it's one of those like stupid metrics that they need to compare because they don't have price yeah I know I'm kind of thinking about what what mad said about like the meme coins and how you're kind of just like stripping away a lot of the other stuff and it's just like comes down to the coin and there's no kind of Illusion that it does something but I feel like a lot of these Dino coins is kind of like that but instead of selling them on The Narrative of like okay like you know this is a dog that's cute or

something like that you have you're selling them on like the narrative that like this could be the next like innovation in finance even if there's nothing really there it's just a much more compelling pitch that you can like pitch to a lot of people like I was watching a Tik Tok video that got sent around on xrp and it's like this guy's saying that uh you know all the real world assets are going to be tokenized and put on xrp and like it's going to have an xrp stable coin that's going to be used for like crossb payments and like embraced by like the US government and you know who knows the degree to which that stuff's true but that sounds really convincing no I mean listen like xrp is a real cult right like people are trying to make Cults for meme coins

right but if you're trying to like make yourself a cult it's like too obvious you're not really a cult these these xrp guys literally DCA for like seven years right with it going nowhere and have just been have never changed have never wavered in their conviction right and like listen like now they're winning right um but that that is like an actual cult right and you can't the xrp thing is just such a fascinating like case study and that's something that you can't really recreate in like because you want to make it in Like Your Meme coin right um so well just it's it's so much more like it's such such a bigger idea to believe

in like this is going to completely change how Finance is done versus like oh you know this dog is cute or this dog has a hat or something like whatever it is gonna take this coin to a price above the price of the S&P yeah that's got to be the dumb I'm sorry that's like the dumbest meme in the market um yeah let's let's do hyper liquid I think you probably have the best um you've done the most coverage on it do you want to maybe summarize just like the key stats of of the air drop and what happened and then we can go into disgusting um I think so it gave away what 30% of its Supply it was all to community and it's trading at I think like what 13 Bill

fully diluted right now it was well over a year points campaign right yeah it was like a it was like a year-long points campaign um so yeah I mean I don't trade per so like I didn't use it um I think so now hyper liquid is basically what you want to talk about like the product I think like a lot of people have been uh as as they do saying like this is how hyper liquid has shown this is how you do this is how you treat your community like huge airdrop no insiders no VCS um and like this is going to be the The Playbook going forward and I disagree but but maybe we can go around yeah I agree with that too basically hyper

liquid created a product people want really well exactly yeah and they launched market and they launched in a bear and so the challenge for like hyper liquid now is right now hyper liquid is four validators in Tokyo okay they're all collocated they're all beside each other it's basically operates like a centralized exchange and so that's the reason why it was such a good product right um is because of that and now people are excited because they're going to add the hyper evm right and so they have like hyper liquid right now is an app chain right it's like this pers app chain which I mean every app chain that's been successful has been a per chain um and it's such a massive Market too right like you're talking

decentralized bance it's like that's like the holy grail and you've had you've had all these perp ex changes over the years come and go right like synthetics GMX dydx I think per protocol right and so there's a lot of churn between it but the like the theoretical seiling is so big for it right um and now they're slapping on this evm 2 which will be like isolated from the actual per exchange so it be like two separate VMS and so the challenge there will be like fragmenting liquidity between these two VMS right like the Spa perp exchange and the hyper evm um and so like I think the idea is that you're going to be able to like tap into the vaults and stuff and yes but they're still separate

they're still separate VMS so there's still communication between them they're still like a latency thing and also they want to like become an L1 and like decentralize right and so when you have a system and you're coming to consensus you you have four valid daters run by the same team that are in one spot you can come to consensus very quickly right like that's part of why it had such good ux which is you ask like anybody what's your favorite purpose Exchange all these I've talked to a lot of like Traders they all love hyper liquid right hyper liquid and so that's basically the challenge like the upside the bull case is that they keep the same great product they add this evm stuff on they get all these other evm applications it just becomes this massive L1 right like high through putut L1 um it does really well

the bare case to me is like they can't maintain the same product quality when they actually trying to create a decentralized protocol right um because it's just a lot challenging when you're communicating across the world trying to like come to consensus right there are there are like physical limits they bandwidth limits right this is like the whole salana thing increase bandwidth reduce latency right um and so yeah like they have this massive Community behind them which we know is one of the most important things to get they kind of are building backwards in the sense where they're getting the community first and then they're trying to create the finished product um they have something they have something live to Market that

people like using they have 2third of their supplies like not issued right so which is valued at billions of dollars and so they can do a lot with that um so yeah it's been like a pretty big success story um but yeah the takeaway about like everyone should just dare drop a lot of their supply like the next project that does that that's not good will'll just all get sold and then everybody will move on yeah the big is ridiculous product yeah like that's the once you build that you have a lot of flexibility with what you can do and your outcomes will probably be all successful and then you could say oh see you should have done that it's not because necessarily because of the path that was taken but because you've built this monster product that everyone wants to use and like using as a Launchpad you

can do a lot I think it's the monst product the fact that they launch the product in a bear and the token in a bull and then the fact that it's also like pretty easy to do a points campaign for a per deck and like Target it properly so you don't get like just just pointless um you know farming of it uh so you can actually like incentivize usage and I think yeah people are way kind of over indexing on that and generalizing um I kind of made this point about swand which is also doing a a massive aird drop now that I said and and obviously big fan of of the of the protocol we're also investors but I just think that an aird drop that big is is kind of a strategic mistake just because

um you you end up just blowing your load too early right and you you you know if you want to do future seasons of points uh if you need to incentivize if you launch a per product or something you need to incentivize it later you have less ammo also all things being equal token with higher floats going to trade lower and so your your future points campaigns are less efficient um I just think for for where for things where you're going to do multiple points campaigns to incentivize Supply Siders in usage low float High fdv uh as as bad as it is for like public token Market buyers is kind of hard to beat uh I think it's like the right from the perspective of the Builder and the product I think it's like ends up being the right decision sometimes and yeah yeah if you're starting at tzero and and

like Future Point going either one of those paths you're you're going to have more activity and more success going with lowf flow high fdv with seasons over time versus jumping a bunch of the supply early having a lower fdv in then trying to use use less valuable incentives for sure but like hyper liquid also didn't have any VCS so they had more ammo to give right like a lot yeah but it's not like it's like 20% right so like all else held equal you you be able you're able to kind of do the same in term it's more The Narrative a really strong yeah but ammo wise you're not really limited because you do or don't have the 20% right because none of these guys have run out

of ammo it's more just like The Narrative of future Supply and stuff um but they still have 40% allocated to Future Supply which is like quite a bit and like they're trading at 13 billion fdv four billion cir something like that without you know any major exchange listings that's I think that's honestly the most impressive part is they only launched the token on hyper liquid which has like essentially sucked in hundreds of millions of dollars of usdc into the platform and you know they just did an alltime high volume yesterday I think like 8 billion in in volume yesterday and hit an alltime high open interest so like I think how they did it was pretty

ingenious launch on their own platform suck in like hundreds of millions in capital and yeah the bridge contract to arbitrum I think was also pretty pretty smart it's kind of the thesis we've been talking about for a while where I don't know I feel like centralized exchange is kind of like the alongside I'd say you know stable coins probably the two killer apps of crypto I think if you have a centralized exchange that people want to use you can probably vertically integrate upwards and build the rest of the stock like an L1 and and things like this and that's kind of the bet that they're the people are making here right that these guys have the Traders um they have the the the retail flow and now they can they can actually build an L1 around that um which I think is a makes

sense yeah and like a billion and a half of usdc which is like a lot yeah right like that's a lot of usgc I guess SS I had a question how difficult do you think it is to like slowly decentralize a validator set versus like building the product because I guess like that was kind of the bet they took it's like we're going to build a really great product and have a lot of users and like build the killer app first and then we're going to decentralize the validator set whereas like you know some other teams work the other way where like they want to have the like the chain working fully I mean you can the ker yeah I mean you can they have they have like their their hyper bft consensus that they use so like they

have a consensus mechanism right it's like derivative of thought stuff which is like comes from tender it's like instead of three slot it's two slot anyways um so like they they can theoretically like do it they have their test net now with a lot of validators on I guess the two questions are like first of all I mean they can literally if they wanted to have like 100 validators geod dispersed like the next day it was it would just be kind of like a shock to the system and so you want to do like the test net for a while um but my question honestly with it is like is it even the right move for them to want to be like a

distributed Global validator said like I mean there's been other chains that have done like like Sai for instance says collocated validators um people don't usei but nobody seemed to really care about that um there's at least like more of them uh there but oh yeah there's more there's way more validators there they're just uh collocated so if you're trying to do it's just hard like if you're trying to do a perose exchange you need to be like the fastest and so with their collocated validators it's like they have 200 millisecond latency or something at like the best case which is really good once you start going beyond that though like

performance de grades pretty quickly for a purpose exchange right um and again there's just like sending a message from New York to Tokyo is has like a physical that's like 200 milliseconds or whatever in itself right so and this is why for instance like multiple concurrent proposers or something that Sal wants to do in the long run and other chains want to do in the long run um because of just kind of like this Global a yeah I I guess the question is like does it does it need to happen I mean um that's what I'm saying like should they even do that like what's the the unlock for for people it's it's the execution and it's the fact that I can go trade kyc and

withdraw all my money in an instant whenever I want like that's 95% of what the people on the platform care about yeah but you're you're eventually going to get like shut down if you have like validators for validator Ian I think it's just like a bet on on on LAX uh regulatory standards too this is like you can't you know there could be like kids trading on there there could be like North Korea could be trading on there you could be accidentally lending money to King Jung like I I don't I don't think this is like basic stuff I think if they get big there's there's just like if it I don't know my my mental mod for this stuff is it doesn't matter until you get big um and then anything that any any like

centralization vector that can be that can be applied pressure to like will be um and if and if it's just a data center it's it's like extremely easy to to stop and it's also like a lot of liability for for the people running the validators and and to some extent I do think that the the them decentralizing and becoming an L1 is like baked into the price right now like I think if they if they said we're just going to do we're just going to keep this data sensor model and and you're gonna have kless trading then it starts being being priced more like robit or something right like uh to some degree um so right now Rob is custodial so it is it is different still but um I mean it's kind of different I think it really like so if you think about like valuation stuff

it's um you know in in like Trad five for some for a lot of I think some of the most important things are kind of growth uh like you know things that grow quickly have higher multiples um whereas others that don't don't um and then also a big one I think in crypto especially is uh defensibility right a lot of when you're doing multiples it's it's be because you're thinking long term right um whereas crypto things fade in and out pretty quickly and so I think what you've seen is a lot of fundamental plays typically have very low multiples um because it's it's you know they're they're typically cyclical so

you have that issue and then it's also you know you don't know what this specific space is going to look like and we haven't really had dominant players remain dominant for extended periods of time particularly on the or or decentralized side so like they they like how how much can I forecast these revenues into the future or like how quickly could they disappear right exactly yeah and so I mean right now it's not like trading overly expensive right like I think um trailing uh 30-day volumes like 80 to 90 billion you annualize that a trillion they can extract one to two basis points realistically um per per dollar right so so they're generating 100 to 200 mil annualized

um fees which I mean if you're doing it you like you don't necessarily need to do this on on fdv right because it's not as if fdv is fully investors it's there's some team so I would include circulating and team in the in the multiple and then the rest is kind of ammo it doesn't necessarily need to be deployed if it if it if it if they don't want to and if it is it's it's it's beneficial right so I would I would kind of include team and Circ and so like yeah it's trading rich but um if you bring a lot of you know uh uh lending and other forms of utility then you assume volume can pick up as well right so it doesn't necessarily need to fully priced in on the L1 side um I think like it's still fundamentally reasonable so

on that it's like what 40 40xp or something on on yeah 20 20 to 40 on on trailing 30-day the thing is like I think volumes will keep going up but like you know if we go through a bear they can fall off a cliff right and that's the the trickiest part um yeah yeah cuz cuz I think you have like that element where like you can justify some some valuation there and then just like they have a such a good gross story of like okay we have a billion and five usdc here that's just like literally been going up only volumes in oi have been going up only the team is like extremely competent and E ethical if they actually do execute on the vision of launching a fast evm and you know

there's I think there's something like 30 plus teams building on there probably now like that was before TG like probably after TG it's going to go up even more um then you have it's like okay like why can't in a lot of people's minds like Why Can't This compete with like a bass or Why Can't This compete with like a suie just I know cedus is different on a technical level because of like decentralizing the validator set but from a narrative and an actual like perception level and user like ux level it doesn't feel that different so to kind of like think a few steps into the future like that um I think is not unreasonable and you also have the other Catalyst like this hasn't been listed on any major exchanges yet right and they

didn't give any allocation to like Market maker exchanges investors anything so you know if like binance or okx or buybit or whoever wants to go and list this spot they're gonna have to go on buy hype then go list it like there's a lot of kind of interesting catalist that are are yet to come they haven't launched staking yet like that could be a huge supply sync and it is truly like the community is like extremely strong and you've just made like all your community members Rich so there's a lot of ingredients for like a pretty massive bull market run here on both the fundamental side and kind of like the the the narrative side and just usability side do you think there's a world where centralized exchange is kind of all bent together and and try not let

this get listed because i' say you know it's it's definitely the the product that's been uh that has the highest probability of really kind of disintermediating them right dydx but that that kind of didn't never got big enough to to to really be like existential for them but but this potentially can yet is there a chance that they don't want to list it bu it listed perss already like maybe they just list perss and don't list spot but even if they like the cool thing is even if they don't like it's literally like on the night of tge like like all these centralized exchanges were had to suspend AR from usdc withdrawals because like hype liquid sucked in like 200 million usdc of deposits which is like a

massive amount of stable coins um right because all this stuff trades at you know a dollar of inflows in stable coins adds like you know a multiple of that on on market cap so the if they don't list it then there's just and Hyper liquid continues to do well and there continues to be kind of hype around it um it's just going to keep on you know attracting usdc so yeah I could see a world where they do that but at the same time like they're kind of like vampiring them because this is like the hottest launch of the year and they're just sucking usdc onto their platform so I can see they're being a very good Bull story here I definitely also understand CIS and Jose's points but like while the bull market is hot I

I could see this being like a pretty big story like you have like people like anom being like this is like Soul last cycle right like that is the narrative on Twitter which is obviously like pretty big and I think a lot of people are are don't have any exposure to it either yeah no you need you need crazy comps for for for it to really run if you start you know comping it to something two to 3x it's it's not really gonna run but if you start Ming it as an L1 then yeah like animal spirits can can take over yeah do we want to move on to just what people are bullish on right now like what your what your guys' portfolio looks like yeah I think that that's what

we wanted to discuss here right um I continue to be bullish on Athena as uh I've sort of been harping on this podcast for for a while um I kind of posted our internal chat today the the yts have the the Pendle Athena yts have just gone insane in terms of yield like they uh a few weeks ago maybe a month ago they upped the points on the susd YT to 30X and to the and on the S on the USD to 50x and I don't think anyone really noticed because the it didn't repic and so this thing has just been paying out like equivalent of 700% APR like 200% Roi until March 20 25th like um March 2025 which is when season 3

ends um and you can basically uh like if you want to you can lock it in and and hedge out the ENA and you're actually getting paid for it right now I'm long because you understand it better and maybe you can you can I just want to know like what it sounds like it I don't know it just doesn't sound real like it sounds too good to be true yeah and and what I'm saying is Yan you understand it you've been as deep into it as me and so probably you can just play Devil's Advocate or whatever um I mean the biggest risk is is obviously that like USD collapses somehow uh we we've covered this in previous episodes we have threat about it like the the risks of that I I personally think those risks are are um I mean obviously I have 90%

of my staes in this thing so I don't I don't think the risks that are high and and also if you hedge out the ENA I do think um you do well even in that outcome right because the idea is like all right you buy you buy the YT um you lock in like uh you and then you short Ena the amount that that you're expected to get at the end of season 3 um and then you know once season three you get your air drop you you sell it and and close the per right and so if USD like collapsed or whatever until then uh your enar I think would would print and probably more than compensate for your for your principal loss um the the risks are like yeah there's many risks it's

it's you're assuming that they're going to pay out season three you're assuming that they're going to pay it out the same way that they did season two and season one like 5% of Supply um if you don't hedge you're assuming that you what like you don't actually know what like the points will translate into you don't actually know you're just assuming that it's going to be be the same as season one and season two um which it doesn't obviously um and then but with SSD YT uh the yield is actually like half basically half of it is just pure um like basis yield um and then half is points I think that's like a little bit more due risk um and even if you assume basis drops down to like 5% and en price halves from where it is now you're still

making making money on that so there's like a lot of um like space there um and then even if if you don't want to go into the yts for whatever reason like even the moro looping is paying out like 200% apy again with all the assumptions I mentioned before of you know them paying out season 3 being the same as as the other ones and and and all the of handle and smart contracts and all that I think like an interesting impact of it though is like what it's done to the other stable coins um because you can like if you don't any if you don't if you don't if you just want to hold like usdc or something I think on a it's still like 15 20% or something just to land like usdc yeah I'm person not hedg

to be clear I'm just playing this on the on the long I'm also like long spot Ena too so yeah and and it has yeah the the stable coin rates have been like it's just uh and and also like maker itself I think like it's just a increasingly like an Athena rapper uh I wonder when people realize this that you're like like and I think they they're they're gonna have to compete for S to compete they just have to put more and more into Athena and then why would you hold die if like you're you're basically getting like a cucked version of of of susd um so so yeah I don't know my my like the reason I'm so bullish uh Athena is sort of the same reason I was uh I

was bullish Luna back in the day um but obviously this this thing doesn't have the reflexivity uh the negative reflexivity which is just that I think like um I mean actually it's not the same reason because uh Luna had more of like decentralized stable coin story with this it's just like I think it's going to be the highest yield bearing stable coin at scale and I think over time yield bearing stable coins just consume like normal vanilla stable coins like why would you hold something that doesn't pay you anything if you can hold something that that does um and over time people get more and more comfortable with the with the risks um assuming you know nothing nothing bad happens and I think it just and especially with their USB integration then you can you can sort of guarantee that your lower bound rate is the

treasury rate so then for crypto degens like I guess the initial Market there's like what nearly 200 billion stable coins on chain like um I just think that's like the initial Tam and then you have all the time from trafi of people looking for yield on on on dollars that can like plow into this um to me it's like I don't know a trillion dollar Tam honestly for for for for a product like this if you really execute it properly um yeah yeah it's funny CDP stable coins just don't they haven't made sense in a while but like especially now the C can you guys explain how the YT and PT points were I'm just looking at the website right now seems super

confusing so yeah it's basically you're stripping like the the you know you have a principal portion and a yield portion right of the underlying asset and so the those if you take the underlying asset and you don't want to deal with the volatility of the risk you could sell the yield and lock in a a fixed return and so what what it's doing is stripping the two and so everyone who wants to lock in a fixed return can sell their yts and everyone who's buying yts is basically buying yield and they're agreeing to pay a fixed percentage for the the upside of the yield um it's kind of like an interest rate swap in in in trafi but yeah the idea is you know the yield is is a function of uh the rewards and the activity on the platform right

and so if you believe there's going to be a lot of natural yield that comes from the product plus the rewards from the airdrop um then you you you buy the YT and and the white because the rewards from the product are in the form of Ena YT is kind of a leveraged exposure to Ena is the idea gotcha um and then how Pand so it's says this like Vault cap so basically they only allow a certain amount of this to happen and then they also boost your points if you use these tokens versus just holding SD yeah the you get higher points for doing the YT than uh susd which just like also juices the the PT yield

obviously and they they want to let people be able to do pt at at scale um yeah yeah because basically they can just lock in their rate and then sell it to speculators yeah exactly cool yeah such as myself so they have a billion dollars in this already that's like a lot of the Athena like St there's also just a lot of people looping like as we've kind of brought up I just yeah I haven't looked into it because I don't like hold it or anything but I wonder like what there's got to be something out there there's so much like left around this trade yeah yeah it really depends on

kind of the liquidation process right if on there's no real risk right it's a it's not an index price exactly yeah so so like the unwind can't happen because someone dumps Into Thin liquidity kind of thing um because it's based on what because Mor full lenders just right well it's a fixed price uh yeah it's more so the assumption that um the the dislocation would be very temporary right and so there's no need to force this monster unwind for a very temporary dislocation because collateralized that if if there was a not temporary dislocation then Moro lenders would would take the hit

because the the price is hardcoded to one to avoid like liquidation Cascades on on thin liquidity basically so do you guys like like Moro Oiler Pendle a that type stuff in a bull market where it's just like you're just you know as these products um kind of grow and they offer more leverage and more flexibility do you like that sort of stuff yeah it's it's so it's kind of going back to the whole valuation thing I mean if you try and do a valuation it's pretty uncompelling right it's it's basically a bank it it lends at a higher rate it borrows at a lower rate and it keeps the spread um and so it's it's been one of probably the

the best ways to to play eth recently um I I haven't been in that trade though uh it's yeah I think part of it just like the the Lindy element um and the fact that it's pretty slow and steady upside has or like in terms of returns has allowed it to trade at a at a kind of a crazy multiple but um I just it I don't really ever see growing into it so I I've but I've been wrong on on the trade and but I guess I mean like trade and fundamentals are two different things so yeah feel the same thing about Pendle um yeah because I'm last cycle Maple was hu like Maple was pretty big like any of

these kind of D5 perers that allowed access to leverage were really big I feel like Maple is the big one and then it's all kind of all the C5 D5 under collateralized stuff like genesis and all that [ __ ] that blew up can we talk about how like all the best tokens recently are CI D5 yeah Athena hyper liquid xrp Tron um there's something else he ate the banana bro yeah salana just kidding eat the banana had 15 billion in market cap yeah I think that the it's yeah it is it is kind of interesting like um these things have all been looped into defi like part of it is because like the regulatory

environment right it now cdy isn't as big of a risk like a repricing you think yeah and it's just easier to build those products much easier right so like from a user experience perspective or I'm not putting xrp in that bucket because there isn't a product but you know specifically like hype and Anda um I think hype and Ena to me and and like some icoin make a lot of sense to be the best performers like uh this cycle just because you're kind of recreating like the two best businesses in crypto right like tether and binance like it's the it's like a way that you can invest in theoretically like binance um or or tether like on chain and then I think in

AI like uh I think there'll be a bunch of AI coins they crush it too but those two narratives I think are really strong um yeah yeah Athena's product is pretty both defensible consistent predictable cash flows um and then as they expand into yielding assets outside of uh purely basis trade you know it adds to that so I think like a premium multiple bag but like you can it's I think it's easier to rationalize yeah to be clear we're we're like big investors in in Athena and we also hold a lot I think personally and and bought it so like take everything with with with a grain of of shill salt and do your own research um I think that the the thing

another thing that's interesting about about to me is that like obviously stable coins have have a massive moat like and right now um they everyone just wants to integrate them for free right you almost don't have to pay like BD because it's like you uh you don't want to compete with the Athena yield you want to be able to offer it to your user so you want them to Grant points for people putting ath like USD on your chain you want them to Grant points for for people putting USD in liquidity pools on your chain and so they just like get every single chain integrating them um and I think that's going to be the dynamic this this cycle I think you'll see Mona Anisha like all the new launches they're going to go big on um like integration with Athena and then Athena's gonna offer points for for

putting USD there and then monad and and inisha are gonna offer like or the protocols on there are gonna offer points on top um to kind of compel users to to move from from ethal one there and it's just such a powerful Dynamic when everyone just like wants to to integrate you and the other thing with the mode is that like because of points and the and like huge FTV you just end up um having a bunch of like people stake USD or lock it up in in Pendle or whatever and that's just like Leverage on the basis yield that they can offer to the susd people right so it makes it really hard for anyone coming in to really compete um and and for and it also makes it so

that even if you're doing it yourself like you can't get as high a yield as actually you could from from using like Athena's product which is like super super powerful and then then yeah I think obviously the Black Rock Integrations the USB I think guys just been like absolutely crushing execution on this thing like yeah no other with like so I think there's like something like four billion in TV in Athena right something like that four billion so a billion of it is in nearly five now five so a billion of it is in just this Pendle like March 2025 and then like there's a lot of it in these products like what do you feel like that

yeah like as cedra says there's a lot of Leverage involved like what what are kind of the unwind risk I mean I guess I don't necessarily think the the the fact that it's in there is bad because it's not as if the yield they're able to generate a meaningful amount of of Returns on that yield right so like it's it's not it's not as much like why it's there but the fact that when it's there it's actually being able to be used productively which is more so you know the harder thing is not to get the money but to actually be able to to use it in capacity and and use it productively right and so the fact that you can do that is is really the the the harder problem to solve and then

everything else is just kind of like customer acquisition tools um uh I I I think like yeah if you wanted to think about um I don't necessarily know that there are bad unwinds here you know maybe you can argue it suppresses price to some degree because people are hedging right and so um like if you look at Ena it's consistently had flat funding in an environment when everyone else is is going up and so I think there is some evidence of of that taking place um which probably just adds for some like short fuel short squeeze fuel in the future yeah I mean I think um probably they're very they're very reflexive to

funding rates right like you kind of saw in like earlier this year when funding rates went down like a supply of USD contracted pretty heavily um let me actually look at what it was I think I think it contracted by like a couple of billion um but it contracted pretty heavily and also obviously Ena price is like super reflexive to that too um do you feel like the more the risk is in Ena just like chopping or like being very reflexive to to this rather than in the actual stable coin um yeah that's my uh assessment of it um I want to be careful recommending stable

coins to people um like to be honest but yeah my my assessment is is that yeah that I'm and I'm investing and just chatting with guy about it too he he's very aware of that and and his like goal isn't to just kind of grow at all costs either um and and realizing it like once it does as it gets bigger the the the small mishaps are Amplified right and so yeah it's just the fact that it's cd5 makes it like so much safer um unfortunately right because you don't like the capital is in a custodian it's not like on chain on on Smart contracts

really um their exposure to any single exchange is just like the short leg of the of whatever exposure they have right so because the capital is in a in a custodian so it would only be you know if the exchange went bust and they they were short and then uh the price uh went down or whatever they wouldn't actually have that p&l um I didn't explain that very well but I guess guess you know what I mean um and then I don't think the the there's really like this death spiral like this death spir Dynamic doesn't really exist you kind of have the opposite where as yield goes down people naturally like want to come out of this thing um and also with the USB Now you kind of have like a floor on the yield like if um you know if if basis goes goes negative you can just plow all

your money into into treasury bills so yeah I feel I feel uh pretty comfy what one funny or interesting I guess side effect of uh of Athena's existence and chat about it with Duncan is you know it's one I think broadly reduced the cost of going long right because they're they're they're providing the shortle uh and they're suppressing uh funding rates so it it allows for animal spirits to exist a bit more cheaply but also a bit uh more hidden right because on one hand typically funding rates are very

responsive uh to to kind of quick jumps and leverage and so you can you can kind of immediately see that but as that happens the the the Tam for Athena picks up and so they step in and help bring those down um so you do have like uh basically the ability for cheap leverage and and even if you know um it it makes its way down the stack right if if like all of it takes place on BTC and eth and and salana you're still going to have the the basis traders that then move down the stack to capture it elsewhere and so it even if they're not doing the like even if you don't have like other assets collateralizing uh or being used to to put on the basis trade the the the

funds that do basis trades are are kind of moving down and so that helps there and then the other one is kind of you know oi is typically long and short right you have one leg of each whereas here it it is um more on the naked long side because they're the short leg um so it's uh yeah because they can't get liquidated right like because they have the collateral whereas the longs can still get liquidated even between like binance buybit and uh okx there's like 25 billion 26 billion in open interest just between those three exchanges so it's like Athena is a a big chunk maybe one

more interesting Dynamic to talk about is just the fact that binance launched their competitor product I don't know if you guys saw that yeah uh they did their like uh because obviously viit integrated Athena so you could like trade with USD as collateral and and earn the yield and then binance kind of countered by even though they're investors kind of weird but they they countered by like launching their own uh yield like uh it's just basically the same product they're not calling it that but it's basically like a a very similar product and I'm really interested to see how that plays out because for the Dynamics we we talked about before like their users are just going to get lower yield from this right like it's it's it's always going to be lower yield than than doing it through Athena because

they only use binance um uh and also they don't have like The Leverage from from the unstaked USD so I wonder how long they can they can kind of keep that up before users sort of demand like the higher the higher yields and I think other exchanges are probably gonna like pounce on this and and integrate USD um as as sort of a response but it's an interesting Dynamic to see like bance kind of yeah go one way kind of help they can adjust is like I I know usde gets 90% LTV on a lot of these uh Sexes whereas they can give 100% LTV against their that's a great Point yeah interesting okay we can stop talking about atha sorry sat I was interested in some

questions um no couple things we uh we released this like Bitcoin 100K report today that's free so definitely check that out and then yeah anybody who's like a deli subscriber we dropped our first year head report gaming and then we got four more coming out next two weeks so a lot of good uh year ahead these aren't year look back reports right these are year head reports so uh yeah yeah you guys have been crushing it the alpha feed's been on fire too like the hyper liquid notes and and yeah a bunch of the like clanker note made a lot of people some some money yeah it's been been really good been enjoying reading the

research yep nice um anything else you guys want to touch on before before we go anything like cus you've been really deep into the AI meta is there any updates like are you still I mean I think that like I think yeah just like virtuals is probably the winning platform right now it's been doing pretty well a lot of people launching stuff there um we'll see though I haven't seen like I haven't well um what's the moat the moat as the platform MH is like it cost like why people keep launching you on you instead of like somewhere else I guess it has to do like what kind of models you've integrated

and stuff yeah I guess like what's the mo of pump it's just like lots of eyeballs on it attention yeah it's creating like the best you seted Marketplace because you need like you know speculators bring quality agents and quality agents bring speculators and yeah and if people think that if they launch an agent on virtuals and it'll get a bigger market cap than like there's a lot of there's a lot of agent so like the difference between bass and salana salana has been like more ad hoc like a bunch of one-off type things right whereas Bas is all Consolidated around virtuals right and a lot of the virtuals agents have gotten I mean the biggest agents are actually both on salana but um virtuals has done pretty well

recently and so you can kind of like tail virtuals I guess virtuals is Success um so yeah I don't know that's like mostly what I'm paying attention to you're still holding your goat still goat to 10B I still have I uh I don't actually yeah I still own uh I still own goat um the I think the upside is probably a lot lower than it used to be which is good though because the I think the biggest upside for goat is that it was like the only thing kind of and everything else kind of fizzled out but now that you have like uh actually a lot of stuff going on uh and The Meta is actually growing Beyond like

a flash in the pan then you're going to see it more like dispersed uh but it's like good for I think it's like good for the the whole like sustainability of of the whole AI agent Trend overall it would be kind of sad if it was just like goat and then nothing else happened and then it was just like a meme coin that people send really high but that was it right so yeah it seems like virtual is croue that's probably the best way invested you love your picks and shovels no I was I was looking at it at like 50 cents but I never pulled the trigger big mistake should have bought those pcks and shovels flying off the rack yeah they don't make any more of

them right so yeah it's tricky I mean like yeah like you mentioned salana has the the biggest agents but it it feels more kind of PVP and gy there like you you have a lot of just you know stuff that that dies pretty early and then if it if it happens to kind of get past like that 30 to 50 mil then it can they can go further so I guess it just kind of depends on on how deep you are in the trenches right if if you're if you're really in there then then maybe you know playing salana but I I think trenches will actually expand on virtuals as well as more and more agents launch there because you kind of have some comfort around um the fact that you have virtual beta kind of built in to each of those

as as uh because it's like the cross pair so I think that's a huge tool and so um and then everyone's just sitting with a bunch of virtuals yeah virtual is going that's it's a great way have to pay you also have to pay virtual to make an agent right so it was like it's been for the last few days it's been like a million bucks a day people are paying in Virtual that gets like burn level um it depends how long I guess it like goes on for and stuff stuff right but most of their successful agents weren't actually built with like the virtual stack right they just launched the token on on virtuals like yeah xbt and that's the only one the other highest market cap ones are all launched by virtual team okay team yeah AI xpt was actually

a guy that was like scraping just like crypto news and like CT for years I think uh I think so good and then it it's it's yeah they're still it's not perfect but yeah it's not perfect it's got It's good to keep up to date on stuff it's good to keep up to date on stuff like honestly having it on my Twitter feed I just see things that sure I could have seen somewhere else but uh and then the terminal is cool you have some utility too like you have you know you hold 600k xbt you log into a terminal terminal is basically you search a ticker and there's a bunch of chronologically timestamped I don't know if I I don't know I use the terminal once and then I

just like don't really I think there's definitely a trade right now where people are just like using it as like the new Elon and any any coin that this thing tweets about they buy and so it's like the self reflex of loop I think that's probably gonna die out soon um and then we'll see kind of how it goes yeah I mean virtuals basically their their goal I think is to kind of repic as as the agent L1 right and then you can fetch a pretty big premium you have a lot of utility built into they want to do an L1 no I think no but that's how you like you view it oh yeah well what I mean it's kind of like basis like if you're looking I mean in my opinion

in my opinion that's like the that's like the L1 base token because like what else is happening on base right yeah that's a good question what do you guys do you because I feel like I've seen just like in the Twitter sphere people talking about like oh the like Salon like we're rotating back to like base and like hyper with like more like Fast evm chains away from salana I don't know if I really fully believe that but what you guys what do you think uh there's probably there's definitely some like I didn't use bass before and I'm using it now um but like you're chasing the app right yeah you're chasing the app as long as you get a good as long as you have good

apps people will like I don't know man if you look at all like the salon De volumes and all the metricks are still pretty good like they come they came down a little bit recently and Salon is only just going to like keep getting better but it's kind of funny that like the king maker thing on salana was pumped off fun and then the king maker thing on base is like these agents and it's like they're both really like don't like they're not really like kind of [ __ ] long term right like call us f no pump is pump is a I think people have the wrong framework for pump like it just regulated launching tokens and did a really good job of it and people see

like the live streams and stuff and you know whatever they go up in a fit and everything look at this Haw Tua thing from like yesterday right there is like some massive rug where all these insiders were like prein to this is the kind of stuff that that's all that pump was it was just people want to trade think about the whole pre-sale met that's what I mean it's not it's not a real thing no but it's solved problem spe on memes without the risk of getting fleeced yeah that's that's the problem solved it doesn't feel like it's that aspirational of a problem though well people are building stuff on top of pump now too like this agent stuff right so uses pumps contracts to launch agents yeah it's it's a pick and shovel sir for

it's a it's a pick and shovel for the meme economy but it's like I think that's what is banana then yeah it's the same thing it's all just kind of these things but I'm thinking is there more of like a but that's everything even like even the def stuff we talk about is maybe this cycle will get something more well that's what maybe the AI stuff is that right like dream a little man yeah I don't think is [ __ ] and also [ __ ] I had someone I had someone I really respect recently uh said they they spoke to the pp fun founder and obviously like Anil knows I think I think knows him too and they both said he's like very smart um like 21y old sort of like Visionary kid

uh and his vision is really to build like a financialized Tik Tok sort of um you know on on pump and I think we kind of saw the very rough uh around the edges early Innings of that when they but you could definitely see how something like that could just like catch fire right and we've always said that crypto social is going to work but it's going to have to lean into it financialization and and obviously financialization has parts and and like some very terrible Parts um people tying up their kids and pets and [ __ ] but you know like if they assuming they can get over that stuff um I don't know uh it's it's it's definitely more interesting

than what I had considered them previously I think one simple framework is it's like it's uh I mean this is probably a bit but uh like higher EV casino right in times when flows are positive if money's flowing into the ecosystem and and you're and you're playing in it and treating it like Casino you're you're gonna have better odds than you would at a regular one then when money's flowing out and you're playing you're going to have worse odds yeah I just feel like something like xrp it's making me want to dream a little like oh yeah like we're going to put you know real world assets on this everything be token that's like a really disingenuous shill to

people yeah I agree but it's just like that is something that I feel like would be like a cooler bigger Vision than you know you know the tokenized Tik Tok is is interesting but like is that really adding like value right to to people's lives or is it just like increasing the access to speculation and maybe the AI stuff's different I have no idea how that's going to play out I think the agents could definitely be useful and and add value to people's lives but it just seems like there could be like a bigger Vision here maybe it's the AI stuff maybe it's the rwa um then just speculation I want the vision to expand Beyond speculation yeah I mean I think on the

agent side the the speculation accelerates the progress massively right because now there's a a huge financial carrot to try and build something productive because of the the path to you know material upside um yeah so yeah I think yes speculation is is a feature right and and so if it's speculation for the sake of speculation you know I get um or or like speculation with no path to something more productive I I I get you know that that that uh kind of negative or not as optimistic um Viewpoint U but I do think with with virtuals yeah there's pump has definitely helped lead into

this like agent narrative too like goat was literally created on pump and so you it's hard you can't just look at everything in like point in time in a vacuum these things evolve and uh I don't know choose choose to be optimistic Dunc you you really you're like a you're really a boomer and you're like very young you talk about gold all the time you only buy pcks and shovels uh you know sh pump off fun here I just think you to live a little I think you need to get a little more optimistic maybe take up like a nicotine habit or something I don't know just like something I want to be more optimistic with this stuff it's just and I get that it evolved and you know maybe there's hope of the agent but it's just

like it's kind of hard not to see like a bit of it as just like one big Casino no I think you need to be you can be optimistic but not delusional right um it's important not to be delusional that's something I'm definitely not being this cycle is uh delusional even though I'm bullish on the AI stuff I'm well aware that all this could go like like 80% in a day right so yeah I feel like the reason I got into crypto is because like Bitcoin like what a vision what a vision and I'm really happy that it's kind of fulfilling that but it's just like I'm trying to find something else that's as exciting as Bitcoin with within this and it's it can be I know the AI stuff is like legit the first thing I've been excited about in a

long time and maybe that's like a midc curve take but sometimes mid curve is the right position you know yeah no the stuff could be cool for sure it's gonna be crazy like what's gonna happen like the humanoids have you guys seen that like the Tesla humanoids it's like you put a decent AI in those things and it's like wow a lot of I know man remember like remember bons maybe you're too maybe Duncan maybe Duncan's too young but there's this thing called bonsy buddy okay and you could like install it on your computer this little purple ape and you could like ask it stuff imagine bonsy buddy is just this AI agent and you actually just tell it to go do stuff for you right like and everyone's going to have their own like little agent that's running

these tasks for them uh it's like your own little personal assistant so you think chbt now that's just a chatbot like these things are gonna yeah it's get that stuff is going to be really cool I just think it's it's like when you get Optimus like taking away all these manufacturing jobs or one of these humanoids there aren't that many manufacturing jobs well maybe not in the US but in the world there are but a lot of the stuff that's in manufacturing has already been automated by like specialized robots you know you don't actually need service jobs like there's a lot of jobs that can disrupt yeah yeah anyway should we should cut it though we're way over time yeah all right guys just just as we start getting

into the important questions about where we're heading well we we'll save that for uh next episode all right guys yeah good episode this has been the high of mind thank you for tuning in and we'll see you again in in two weeks [Music]