Have crypto prices bottomed? Indicators for a market bottom

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show that's as satisfying as finding free Wi-Fi when you're traveling I'm your host Jay Hamilton today we're joined by Kyle reidhead co-owner and head of research at milk road now in today's episode we're answering a couple critical questions that I know are on your minds right now is the crypto bottom finally in and when are prices going to start to go up we're actually going to look at some very important charts so if you are listening to this on podcast I would recommend you might want to go over to YouTube and see all the charts we're going to go through today also I just want to remind you all quickly that

starting this week we are now publishing at 3 p.m. Eastern every day instead of our previous 9:00 a.m. eastern so make sure you update so you are getting the news every day from us before we jump in if you've got some eth and you want to make some yield on it you're going to want to check out our sponsor kelp Dow get ready because your reward farming game is about to level up introducing gain powered by kelp your DJ conier gain is an automated Vault launched by kelp that maximizes rewards for eth users it offers oneclick access to airdrops and points from leading l2s like Linea scroll car and more here's how it works

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doing a bunch of research over the past week looking at some charts I can always tell when you're obsessed in on the charts and you wanted to come on today and share what these charts are showing you about where we are in the current cycle and if we are at the bottom for prices in crypto yeah well it's it's probably the worst time to be doing this because in three hours from now we're going to have the decision on on the Fed rate cut which is like the next Super Bowl I guess and everyone cares about it and probably the Market's going to be very very volatile uh the good news is kind of what I'm showing there's a lot of charts that are in prices for different assets that are at critical moments in their sort of chart here and in terms of resistance or support or

different Trends and probably we're going to get some answers here from the ray Cuts in terms of how the market reacts and see and we'll see now there's a good chance we also overreact and like it might break through a resistance or support which it normally wouldn't do but it does just based off of how much people really care about this rate cut and so when I'm sharing all these charts here and we're kind of what looking through it this is more to guide you and help you understand well after the markets uh make their decision in terms of how they're going to react to these rate Cuts where are they at and again it doesn't matter what happens like the next minute after the decision is made it's like let's look over the next few days here and see where it's at but hopefully what this can do is guide us

and tell us are we at the bottom and so that's what I'm going to try and break down for us here today great Okay so we've got uh we're going to look at BTC we're going to look at eth we're going to look at Nvidia we're going to look at a whole bunch here uh start us off with uh what you're seeing uh in the charts right now yeah so first the reason that we're bringing this up now and I know people have been asking have we bottomed for the last like seven months because we've literally been in the downtrend for uh since March and the reason why it makes sense to start asking the question have we bottomed out now is because we recently in this is uh back in September uh 6th we put in another low but it was actually a higher low to the previous

one which was back on August 5th and this is in total crypto market cap we're looking at right now so every single basically month we've been putting in lower and lower lows right and lower highs now we haven't put in a higher high and so we can't get too excited yet but we finally for the first time in seven months put in our lower or sorry our higher low that is really key maybe maybe we are out of this downtrend uh and we are working our way up and so this is sort of the the first sort of like aha moment I was like hey maybe we did bottom and so typically what you do is you look at a chart then you want to look at a bunch of other charts to see in terms of pricing and technical analysis does it apply do other things

look the same and then you want to go and go don't just look at charts don't just look at TA that's never enough then you want to zoom out look at the fundamentals and go what does that say where does macro saying what are historical prices saying what are um you know onchain metric saying if you're talking about crypto and in terms of where the market might go from that and so you want to kind of look at both and so we'll start with the chart which I just shown you we'll look at a bunch more and then we'll get into some fundamental stuff so starting out here we look we see okay total crypto market cap is just made its higher low for the first time in seven months now what do we do well let's scan the market first we have Nvidia which is kind of

the most important stock at least over the last couple years and I showed this a couple weeks ago Jay I think you were off on your honeymoon but with zenica and basically said we were at this very important moment for NVIDIA where it's on this sort of um upward trend line or ascending trend line since it put in its low back in October 2022 and basically what's happened is two times before this it's bounced off that um that line and then just shot up it did it back again when it hit its low then it did it at the end of 2023 and then we hit it for the first time back in August and then we hit it again this is when I think I showed it we were close to hitting it uh early September and what's happened since then well we've pretty well shot up pretty far uh

past it now in the last week we're on a weekly chart here the last day or so you know markets don't know what to do so nothing's really moving right that's why you see a bit of red there um but it looks like Anyway Nvidia just blasted off this trend line so that is a pretty bullish sign if we break below it I'd be a little bit scared so far we're above it and we're quite high above it just in the last week so that's good to see again it's really going to matter on what happens here with the um with the rate cuts and how the market decides to react to that but so far that looks pretty bullish which lead you to believe the market has decided hey we're going to continue to go up and so maybe crypto total market cap is has reached its

bottom but let's continue on if you look at the S&P 500 this thing is already at all-time highs um which is a little bit wild nothing really is at alltime highs again S&P and I guess gold as well um but just surpassed all-time highs this week which is a very bullish sign right how the heck is crypto doing so bad yet you have thep 500 already at all-time high so if we're wondering where is the market going even with the fear around these um rate cuts and what's going to happen here you still see the market the S&P 500 hitting alltime high so that is a a I would say a bullish signal if this was bleeding out then I'd be scared but that looks pretty darn good so let's jump back into crypto this is a very very interesting way to look at what's

been going on in Bitcoin over the last seven months so what I have up on the chart here is Bitcoin from last cycle to this cycle on its monthly so we're looking at monthly candles here uh and how well it's performed and basically last cycle crypto or sorry Bitcoin hit what was it like 69k or whatever but really it closed at around 613 okay and it it um it closed and it opened at that uh in two separate months and then it also ranged and and did the same thing earlier remember there was a double top last cycle at around 50 what is this 59 okay and so anywhere between 59 and the 61 is sort of this like um resistance from last cycle okay where we couldn't really close past that we

couldn't get above it this cycle ever since we went past alltime highs we have not closed below it so we've actually flipped last Cycles resistance into support now every month we have gone down and down and down and down in terms of the highs but we have never closed below that same resistance level from last cycle even right now we're sitting almost right on it but again we are not going below it and closing below it so that is really key if we can hold that I feel pretty strong that all we are doing is actually just testing the previous alltime highs and we just keep doing it right different way to look at it I know the previous alltime highs was 69 but we hit 69 for like a minute so like in technical analysis you don't really count that always you kind of count

where you open and close on a longer term basis and we've been hitting that so that's quite interesting if we were to close below this okay maybe we have not uh bottomed yet but right now we're holding above so we'll see again don't know what's going to happen in just three hours from now but right now that looks pretty strong and if we can bounce off that that's going to be very very strong support for us to just fly off of and you can see Bitcoin going big time from there so we'll see what happens um but that's an interesting way to look at it another way to look at is this is Bitcoin on the weekly same chart or same line that I drew with Nvidia that I just showed you earlier the same thing here with Bitcoin Bitcoin has tapped off this line twice since bottoming out again

back in October 2022 and then we're actually kind of nowhere near it we're floating up way above it uh now and we're not kind of near that line which is nice now there's potential that we come down and hit that line that would be really bad for NVIDIA and eth probably because they would be well below the line uh but it looks quite strong there now what's really interesting about this chart is if I then zoom out a little bit let's go back to last cycle the same thing happened we tapped off this line twice okay two three times I guess actually in total but let's call this once same with here we did it twice and then one more time here and then we just floated above it and then all of a sudden we took off into what we would call this is the

banana zone right it looks very very similar where we are right now we came down we never quite touched it and then we just like took off we're actually sitting exactly that right now which is quite interesting let's zoom out again and go to the cycle before that same thing right we tap this line a bunch of times again this this um ascending line that that basically comes off the very bottom of the of the bare Market same thing we tapped on it a bunch and then we never really tapped it but we didn't go too crazy then all a sudden boom bananas own and again I can do it one more time all four Cycles did the exact same thing Bitcoin early on in its first year after it bottomed out it kept hitting this line and then it never really got close to it in the next year

and then it took off into banana Zone that's exactly where we're sitting right now so that's quite interesting it doesn't mean that this is always going to happen just because it's only happened three times previously that's not a lot of data points so like don't take this as like gold and this is how it must go but it's quite interesting to see the same sort of pattern playing out once again and to me that looks pretty bullish although again we'll see what happens this could come down and touch this line it would be very surprising and very scary if it actually broke below it unless it was because of like Co or whatever you know like a reason like that where like Market just nuke but then it just jumps back so fast it's not really that big of a deal which is why again I don't worry about when I

look at covid here the co dump it dumped below but it took a couple months or a couple weeks in this case and we were back up and it was all good so anyway that's kind of what I'm seeing here on bitcoin eth a little bit scarier okay eth has been all over this line for its first year and has been all over it for the last couple weeks okay it has not broken below it it has not closed below it so that is good but as we sit here waiting for a Fed decision we are right on this line now if the FED decision goes well I'm sure we bounce off this and we do quite well here if it does not go that well and we break below that could be quite scary now again when I zoom out on eth if I look back at last

cycle same thing played out right it looks almost identical to bitcoin and this is on a a two-year time frame so from 2019 all the way to 2021 boom and then banana Zone the same as before the other scenario that could play out here if eth happened to break below this line is there was also and this would be a bit of a shorter time frame so it doesn't look exactly but one thing I can point out is there's another trend line which is right here on eth this looks almost identical to this okay if you see this how this looks here that looks very much the same and for those that are listening all I'm doing is I just mooved the trend line to a steeper line because eth actually skyrocketed it off its bottom kind of like what it did here uh and then it

came down touched that line a couple times and then broke below it then it went way below that line until finally climbing back up again this looks a little bit weird because of covid but just forget about that we would have just continued to go up here there is a chance that that's what's happening here and we're just touching touching touching and then we're going to go below so I don't know we'll see what happens um but again this is on like a six month nine month time frame whereas this one's already two years so it would make more sense if we're just looking at historicals that it's this and I think we all hoping that it is this but let's see how things play out last one we'll look at here in terms of crypto is salana again you can put the same trend

line they all are playing this sort of same um idea here but again Soul like Bitcoin is way way way above that trend line from its bottom right because it's outperformed so much and now it's just been in this wedge and we keep hitting this support um which you could put the support here you could also put it up here from in terms of like where we've closed at which is right where we're sitting at right now which is 128 uh anything below 128 we always Wick back up to this 128 so again are we about to bounce off this because this is support for us I don't know but this is we have support playing out right now for Bitcoin on the monthly for soul right now this is on the weekly for eth right now weekly or daily everything is sitting on support in crypto right now

and so it's a very much make or break moment for crypto but because we have hit that that higher low that is a good sign but we're going to have to see what happens here coin by the way I showed this one too I think was zica so I'll just pop this up for you guys we did break below and we closed below it on the weekly so that's not ideal but we have tapped it twice since and so it's trying to get back above um who knows what's going on with coin the last thing you want to look at with the rate cut decision here is what's going to happen with the Dixie I talked about this I think Jay and I talked about this a couple weeks ago we did maybe a whole episode on this the Dixie is what really matters if the Dixie goes lower like

this arrow on the chart here this is not ta this is just I think I screenshotted a picture of this uh but basically if if the Dixie breaks lower than its Trend that it's been on this range it's been on since 2022 um that's the signal that we are going up and we've bottomed and it has tapped it like the same line like four or five times of last what are we on a weekly here yeah last five weeks so we have not done that in these other ones all the other times that we've tapped this level it's one time and then we've gone up right one time we've gone up one time we've gone up now we're just sitting here and so there's a good chance I think that this is going to go down especially because we know we're beginning to cut rates which means the

dollar generally gets weaker so we'll see what happens if the markets puke that means everyone's moving back into risk off and into safety which means the dollar will actually do well um which is weird but we'll see what happens but this is the other thing I'm really really looking at here and we're probably going to get a signal on all these like today today or like let's say this week it's it's very much make or break time in market so now this is all price action and as good as that is it's not enough right you need to zoom out you need to look at other things and so um this with a grain of salt but what you really want to do is look at fundamentals onchain metrics Etc and you can get more of a an idea from there of where these prices might go okay before

we uh jump in and look at some fundamentals uh Kai based on the TA I think one thing that we talk a lot about on the show is probabilities what would you say is the probability that we are at the bottom right now in crypto markets so that's actually a good question but can't really be answered until you look at the rest of it because what's really controlling the price is not the TA right it's more people's reaction to macro to rate cuts to onchain metrics to historical prices right like TA or just like price action is just a collection of the psychology and the uh what all the participants across the market are doing right and so again we've hit this key area and so I

don't know where things are going to go based off it seeing the lower high like that's puts me in probably a higher than 50% chance that we've bottomed out but again what really matters and you can't just only look at these numbers or these charts what really matters is what's going on in the back end of things what's going on with the macro what's going on with all the fundamental stuff that's what will give you the pro probabilities so let's reans that question I'm glad you asked because let's look at that right now and stick around to the end of the show to find out the final probability on all this okay let me pull up here uh Bitcoin a chart of bitcoin's monthly price over each month what do you see here yeah so um this is just historicals so when we

look at bitcoin's um career let's call it historical career of what is it 12 years now 15 years something like that um how well is it performed and the good news is and what date are we in September I think it's the 18th as we record this and so the good news is octob one thing is we're already lower than I think what the month is which is average is 4% or so yeah 4.5% in September and so like there's room for us to go up and still be a bad September but October looks really freaking good SE November looks really good and so does December historically especially in election years but not just election years or you can call it having years whatever you want to call it having years election years even none of those just always October tends to be very

very good for crypto and for for equities uh and so historically in terms of where we are in time frame it tends to be a bullish bullish month coming up the next two months to three months and Beyond and so that moves our probabilities of the direction of okay we've probably bottomed out um because September usually is where you bottom out in most years what about if we look at historical of crypto not just Bitcoin yeah so if you look at the the cycles of of crypto they tend to work in similar ways uh and we're actually as much as it's been kind of scary the last seven months we've had a bunch of shows in the past saying like look this is normal that in the second year of a bull market or second year after bottoming out we tend to have these like long drawn out

pullbacks and although it sucks when you're in them if again if you just look back at history and I just showed a bunch of charts of it tapping this line which is those were big pullbacks you just didn't quite um you didn't feel it back then because maybe you weren't in the in the markets but when you're in it and you feel it it feels so bad but actually we're doing exactly what we've done basically every other cycle and if you look at where we are in terms of the historical performance we're right at the point where at least in the last two cycles we've just gone up only not up only but we've gone up and so it looks like we are finally at a point where things are looking really good now again this is just historical stuff so this doesn't have a huge like um weight to it

but crypto tends to be very cycal so it matters all right what about if we look at uh liquidity and M2 Supply what do you see there this this is um this holds a lot of weight to it I think and um M2 there's a bunch of different ways to look at Global liquidity this is looking at Global M2 and this is a a 10we lead this is from GMI R Paul and basically they have some indicators that look at where liquidity is going to go and based all those data points they can sort of predict where liquidity is going and uh it generally is is very accurate and what's interesting is Bitcoin follows it to an absolute t as we've and most of you guys already know this and in terms of the 10-week leads of global M2 it's up and up and up starting mid-september

right at the moment we are at right now and so again that is super super bullish and again you can look at it from Global M2 you can look at at Global liquidity there are different ways you look at it whether it's from how GMI does it or if you're just looking at the assets that are on in central banks it's all breaking out right now now uh and so in some ways like what we show in our Pro um in our to our Pro members which is using um I think they're called Capital Wars or whatever the the analysis is um they use different ways to look at Global equity and it's been broken out since like for months now and we're kind of way Beyond that's what we look at but most of the market looks at sort of just M2 which is just an easier way to look

at Global liquidity and it's just beginning to break out uh and so I think that's going to just continue to go up hard to see Bitcoin or just in en other assets go lower here when we have liquidity that looks like it's breaking out and going up generally like historically it never goes down in this period so that would be very odd to see liquidity go up but then prices go down so again if you put that into our waiting it looks like probably we're hitting resistance on a lot of these or sorry support on a lot of these and we're going to bounce off of it I just want to call out that if this comes true that we would hit roughly 100K Bitcoin by the the end the year it's it's funny a lot I think you even made that

prediction I was looking at our predictions from um from the end of 2023 and I think you said with Bitcoin 100K uh by the end of the year and a lot of people have said this and what's funny is in crypto like there's still a good chance that that happens because when crypto moves it moves so damn fast like people forget that Bitcoin was at like 30k I think it was in was it January and we like doubled in like a month or two months when the just before the ETFs so like uh like this stuff moves fast and so 100 is actually not that far away we're sitting at what 60k right now uh it's not even a double from here and we've got three of the most bullish months typically in crypto for that to play out so I don't I'm not saying that it's GNA happen but it it

definitely can happen is what I'm saying well and you make a good point because our our memory is so short and we're so focused on the immediate term that right now it feels like 100k is forever away when in actuality it could happen very fast let's look at uh on some onchain metrics Kai what do we see when we look onchain in terms of active addresses uh what's the story there yeah and so this is more to tell us um I mean part Bitcoin but more I would say just total crypto market cap which we looked at in the beginning is like if liquidity goes up and we're seeing growth in the crypto ecosystem at large then it's it's very likely that capital is going to flow

into crypto and right now um if you look at smart contract platform daily active address which is what we have up on on the chart here this is Jamie Coots who pulled this data um it's at alltime highs and it's at in this number it's 16.86 million you can get different numbers depending on what you look we showed the a16z one uh last week with um with Mike dudas and that was at 60 million I think what this one is is it tries to remove Bots and um and different things and so this one's looking at seeing 16 million regardless the trend is up and it's at alltime highs and what's interesting is since March this has just gone up and up and up while prices have G down and down and down you don't typically see that uh and at some point it has to revert back and

catch up just like it would with liquidity if liquidity gets too far up and so I think and again if you think of the Divergence we have a Divergence here of active addresses and price price going down but active addresses up we have a Divergence in liquidity liquidity up price down we also have a Divergence in crypto prices versus the S&P 500 right at some point these are all going to have to come back and converge and come back together the question is is S&P 500 going to come down to meet crypto is crypto going to go up to meet S&P 500 and same with active addresses and same with um like all three of these liquidity and I think all of those are going to continue to go up and so it would make sense that crypto has to go up to catch up to all three of these

divergences so again we could wait that into our probabilities and I would say that that leans us more in the direction of probably it's up from here and we have bottomed all right let don't give us your probability yet we're not quite done looking at all these uh let's let's take a look at uh onchain metrics around around fees and the impact that has so this one has been what's probably affecting ethereum the most but probably just a lot of smart contract platforms is the fact that fees are just going down the last few months especially in ethereum's case and that's because obviously they've launched EIP 444 which was the whole goal was to lower fees and make it more scalable and so fees have gone down down down we've never been in a bull market where fees go down fees go up in Bull markets but I think what a

lot and so this has been a big thing on Twitter of people just saying well fees are down eth can't do well right or probably we can't go back into bull market because there's not enough fees being made and I think where people miss here is that it's not fees that lead price it's price that leads fees and so the moment that the price of crypto goes up all of a sudden everyone starts using defi again everyone starts trading and everyone starts going nuts on memec coins and whatever and then all of a sudden fees go up it's just naturally how it always has worked since day one and so we don't need to worry about fees down right now unless when prices go up if fees also don't go up that could be an issue because it means like prices are up but no one's actually using any

of this stuff that would be a bad thing that's never happened I still don't think that will happen I think we're going to see prices go up and we're going to see the fees fall as normal and so I'm not as worried as everyone else is about seeing fees uh fees down right now on Smart contract platforms I think that'll just pick up as price goes up it's how it always works yeah and if you guys want to uh learn more about Kyle's thoughts on fees and the impact that they have on price take a look at last week's episode we really Dove deep into that Kai one more uh perspective perspective to look at which is so important is sentiment what do we see when we look at sentiment in the market right now yeah so fear and greed sitting at around 30 I believe right now if you

scroll up we can get the exact number here you just scroll up on that page it is oh 45 okay I guess we're feeling pretty 33 yesterday though yeah exactly when I looked at yesterday yeah so it's been lows been in the 30s uh to like low 40s and if you look at the chart kind of over time and why this matters is we've been quite bearish for the last however many months right and why that's a good thing is when people um are stuck in fear it means a lot of people are actually offside right A lot of people aren't allocated to crypto at the moment and so at the moment that all of a sudden markets decide hey we're going to go up and people decide hey we're going to come back into crypto all those people that are stuck in fear uh and

that are not greedy right now it means they've got stable coins or they've got cash or they're holding I don't know gold or stocks or bonds or whatever means that it's time for them to move their assets back into crypto and again this is why crypto moves so fast because it's so volatile people when they're scared that uh they don't know where the Market's going to go they just get out right and so like whereas Apple would go down like 2% Bitcoin will go down like 10 per. right and what then when all of a sudden we decide okay it's risk on all of a sudden people start allocating and that's why crypto goes up like 10 20 30 40% in the matter of a couple days and so generally when fear is really really low and it's been now low quite a while you've almost see like a double bottom

there but again a lower high in fear and greed which is kind of funny uh but same idea you do see a lower high this is a signal that hey maybe you know we were fear but now we're starting to move up and that means sentiment starting to move forward but it's coming off pretty well the bottoms that is a really good signal that things could move upwards from here and probably not downwards because when we're sitting at 30 and 32 it's like you can't get much more scared than that like I don't think we've ever seen fear and greed at like zero or 10 or whatever right so another sign that like we're close to bottoming if we haven't already okay so let me give a summary and then I want you to give your probability that this is the bottom and what that means for how investors should

allocate over the next few weeks uh and obviously as you said at the beginning take this with Grant of salt because we were recording this before the FED makes their announcement and this episode is going to publish after the right right around the exact time that the FED makes their announcement so uh okay so we've got on the TA side we've got uh eth Bitcoin crypto total market cap testing some resistance lines indicating that it is a moment when likely it either goes up or supp L support L support sorry support lines or could go down we've got uh Nvidia and the S&P 500 actually looking quite good so stocks are really indicating that we are in a bullish market and then on the sentiment and

then on the timing side we've got October coming October no October November two of the best months historically also when you look at crypto Market Cycles we're at a part where typically we do go up when we look at historicals not to mention M2 and Global money supply is also trending up which usually means we follow and onchain activity also showing a positive direction trending up even though prices are down when you put that all together what does that say to you I mean in my opinion it's it's hard I don't know until I see what happens with the rate cuts and so I want to just say that we don't know what's going to happen here my assumption is that rate cuts are

going to be fine so it's either going to just be neutral and people don't care that much uh and it's not as big as a thing as we thought um or it could even go in the bullish range I think it's going to be more depending on what they say right we already know they're cutting and whether it's 25 or 50 I actually don't think really matters that much um it's more what do they say to us and tell us are we going to start cutting a bunch right and are we doing that out of fear or are we doing it because we think economy strong like we got to wait and hear what they say to us I think that's what really matters uh but ultimately I don't think that we go down to any more lows I think that we've reached our low which was back August

5th now to be clear that low was around 49k for Bitcoin we can definitely go lower than the low we put in in early September but I don't think we'll get lower than that and so I think like if we were to get around this 49 50k you're buying because there's no way I don't can't say no way there's never a certainty there's a small chance that we go any lower than that big low that we put in back in August and so I think and I know I've been saying it's accumulation mode for the last few months here um but it really feels like we've bottomed back in August again I don't know that we've B bottomed as in today we've bottomed right like we still might go lower than we are now at 60k or whatever we're sitting at um but I don't

think we go any lower than we did back in August and so in that regard it probably means that we have already hit our low and I think it's a pretty high chance I would say 80 to 90 plus percent that August was our low as for what happens today or tomorrow or this week like that I do not know but I do feel really really good about Q4 based on all the things we talked about and so um are we at 100K by the end of the year I don't know but we are definitely much higher than we are today and I feel that's a 80 to 90% chance there that we are much higher than we are today by the end of September though that's anyone's guess we're really going to matter on what happens today uh and just the next couple weeks here but I

think we've hit some pretty serious points in the charts um I think they're going to play it well but um I could be eating my words tomorrow let's see and we've only got 12 days left in September before October starts and Q4 starts uh so look a lot of indicators I want to know you guys listening uh what do you think do you think we've hit the low or do you think we've got lower to go are you guys buying right now because you feel like this is the last chance to get in before the banana Zone as always we will keep you guys up to date tomorrow's episode we're going to break down the FED announcement and what comes out from that press conference we'll let you guys know because I'm guessing most of you guys aren't tuning in to the fomc press conference but we are because we're

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note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day