Gnosis

Transcript

all right so I want to give a presentation about Geonosis also a prediction market I directly skip the slide what is the predict market we just saw auger so I started with why aetherium and I can make this very concrete because I started a project called la about 2 years ago and it was a Bitcoin prediction market and there are several problems with that so for example if you now want to open LA from your current position from inside the UK then you see

this side and another thing is obviously security so we had the goal to build a decentralized friction market that would mean that on the one hand yeah as a user should not need to trust us so the goal would be that always the money that is in predictions is somehow stored in in a multi SiC contract and it might be possible it might be possible or it might be that it is possible to achieve this goal with Bitcoin the problem is it is very very complicated would take long development and you have to make yeah it

would be not a good user experience and that's very different with with the serial but the theorem it's way much easier and so the one point is the user perspective that the user do not has to trust us but the other point is that the theorem is also great for us for our perspective because we do not want to spend resources on security we do not want to hold the cold wallet of bitcoins of our users because it's it's just risk and just a cost that can be avoided with material so what's the current status of

gnosis we went live a few days after frontier we since then have a little bit more than 900 contract interactions and a little bit more than 5000 ether in predictions so I just now want to give you the demo and I will okay and I want to make a demo and show

how a prediction market can be used for decentralized decision making so I think the the I can skip the usual use case the usual use case would be you'd predict on a specific event who becomes the next president one of the Canonical's but i want to show you how how to use the prediction market for decision-making so let's say we take this example of you Joe this music platform and we want to make a decision what is the good price to charge and the goal

the overall goal should be to maximize the total the total revenue and another example could be a decentralized exchange and the decision would be what fees to be charged and again the goal is to maximize the over real revenue so how would work with kenosis you can suggest an event you would choose what price should be charged you would specify closing date category and then you could select a few suggestions for example 40 years and 60 cents and so on so I skip

this and go directly to to the market we we can create with this and there we have we have four suggestions for this n6780 cents and one ether and now in principle we can we can try it here we can select select the share we want to buy specify a price and usual stuff all very similar to to auger in this case but we can also use this button or use this by all outcomes that would mean we can spend amount of

ether let's say hundred and and we would get shares of each outcome now the second step is to create another market and that would be what is the total revenue in in US dollar on the music platform in 2015 and now we can create more markets and we select our we selectors we select the total revenue in 2015 and now the interesting part is

that we can select the currency in principle the currency would be easier or we are agnostic towards currencies could be any any - anything that implements the token interface but if someone comes up with a dollar token someone comes up with a bit current token dye or whatever that can be choosen but we can also choose token directly from our platform and what does it mean so we choose now we choose now what price will be charged on huija first song and we select one specific outcome so basically what we create now

is market that is traded in shares of 80 cent will be the price of the song and that means that this market will only be relevant if the decision is made because only then those shares will have the value of one ether and otherwise they will have a value of zero so basically in the other case if this if this price is not chosen then all trades are irrelevant so what you achieve is you say what will be the total revenue under the condition that we make this decision that we charge 80 cents for

song so how would it look like we create such a market and he says okay it's trade in 80 cent shares and here's the the forecast on on the on the outcome so in this case the forecasted revenue would be 5000 dollars and people can now trade and they can basically go long or short and therefore increase or decrease the forecast and in the end we will have the different screen resolution in mind

but anyways okay so in the end we have four for those different markets for one that's traded in $0.40 shares and for the one that's traded in 60 10 shares we have different predicted outcomes and then after specific trade trading period we can automatically select the decision that has the highest predicted outcome we saw yesterday demonstration of bought room where there there are different

suggestions and you could all you could automatically connected to the prediction market and automatically create for every potential decision the market and forecast the price of the token of this project under the condition that this decisions make made and I think that's a very powerful tool and I'm very excited to see how how this will will turn out okay what what is our goal of of Knossos our

goal is to be British market as a platform that means we are agnostic toward towards Oracle's we already have seen during this conference very interesting ideas for Oracle's for example of this direct interaction with AP eyes Oracle eyes so all Oracle's will be supported by us you can specify just to resolve the address all tokens will be supported we support different market makers we have already implemented automated market makers and the idea is

that it will be easy to create different skins for different topics again everyone can become an Oracle we will provide an Oracle platform we are already working on option trading for ya faster trading we integrate our platform with crowdfunding so it people can crowdfunding market makers they are interested in a forecast they can crowdfunded and again different tokens are possible very short look at a little bit of code create event what what are the parameters so we have a

hash of the event description then we have event type we distinguish between two types types where we have different number of outcomes that would be the different prices there we had four potential outcomes and then we have numeric outcomes where we predict on a range that would be the total revenue then we have you resolve the address that's basically the Oracle and some additional data Oracle can choose fees that's all you need to implement those three functions if you want to be an Oracle or you want to create an Oracle contract and finally we would like to be British

market as a service that would mean we aim for one-click deployment if you have some topic you're interested it should be as easy as setting up a wordpress block to set up a prediction market on this topic should then be easy to customize it integration of other services and build up your community or use it within your own company thank you with two men two minutes left I think

like we could allow I could allow one one two questions so is there a way to you know how we had to create different markers for the 40 cent 60 cent 80 cent price and you know you have to individually come up with those right it's there a way to like make it less discreet just one name by one if two dollars might be the optimum price but we didn't think of that and we didn't create the market for that right so the the easiest version would be that anyone

could just make another suggestion that you always have other price and then you can split this other price up into a new suggestion and again other one or you could but that gets more complicated you could also they have a range or yeah use uses range predictions and forecasts that on another range prediction I guess from from would be better to just people then you'll have markets for the second

digit which will be could be understood to mean like 41 7 42 cents up to 49 cents and so forth so you thank you thank you