Ethereum can win and still be a weak investment
14 Jan 2026 · 36:50
Christopher Keshian, founder of Triton Liquid Fund, argues that Ethereum can win the technology race yet disappoint holders. Drawing on a Triton paper revisiting an institutional-investor critique, he says discounted cash flow, commodity and money lenses all put ETH's valuation far below its market price, because L2s and stablecoins capture much of the activity. Host LG Doucet presses him on this in a Milk Road interview that also covers cycles and how Triton tracks market segments.
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way under under the mark for where ETH is currently valued. If you if you purely value it as a business cash flowing asset, it it's the current market valuation is wildly overstated. >> What's up everybody? It's LG News Center here and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that reads every single report, even the older ones, so you don't have to pretend you did. Today is January 14th, 2026. ETH just bounced off 3,400. Hallelujah. You guys know this asset well. Ethereum is a $400 billion asset and the clear number two in crypto. But today's guest argues that despite it being the future home to trillions of dollars in volume, the value may not reflect in the price or market cap for some time, if ever.
Basically, that ETH can win the tech race, but still disappoint investors. Christopher Keshan, founder at Triton Liquid Fund, joins us today to discuss Ethereum's long-term value, especially as the race for institutional heats up and value begins to acrew as the market really matures. Today's episode is brought to you by Bridge sends stablecoin payments instantly simple, global, friction free, and chain link links web 3 to Wall Street. Chris, what's up, man? Welcome to Milk Road. >> Thanks so much for having me, LG. >> Okay, let's dive right into this, man. You guys put out you guys put out some excellent research at Triton and we found this report and this is from a year ago, and you guys even made a website for it. It's called what is Ethereum worth.com, and it's a it's a very in-depth report. You guys are data scientists. You really go deep there. As
soon as I see formulas, I'm like, someone's somebody I got to call this person and get them get them to come on and explain it to me, which is exactly what we what we saw in this report. You guys are arguing that although it's very obvious all that we're going to be doing trillions of dollars of volume every day, probably one day on Ethereum, it's may be unlikely that the value of will be reflected in the price. Is that true, Chris? Come on. >> Yes. So, yeah, that that uh is a great introduction. I I think that is true and I think we're we are seeing that. I do think there's a caveat to that before I go into uh and I'll try to do this without talking about any formulas but uh before I go into a quick summary of the paper but um I think that the the
caveat would be viewing ETH in in the under the guise of the monetary thesis meaning that it becomes a store of value a means of exchange much like Bitcoin is and is denomin you know things are denominated in ETH payments I think that that is becoming harder and harder to justify high for people holding ETH as stable coins have um there's been broad proliferation and uh you're seeing the the absolute line share of transaction on Ethereum are stable coins right so that probably is going to be the the means of uh the denominator for transactions so that's the caveat if ETH were to take that mantle then you know I think you do see price appreciation but
we can talk about more of that later you want me to just jump in to give a quick summary of the paper. Would that be helpful? >> I honestly I I kind of I read through as much of this paper that I could understand and I thought it was fantastic and I'd love for you we we we have so many people that want to hear about Ethereum on our show. Um we talk about Ethereum a lot. We're very hot on Ethereum. A big part of Milk Road Pro's portfolio is Ethereum. So I would love to get your take because um we always love a mix of uh positive but also contrarian takes. >> Yeah, absolutely. So, just to to back up, uh the reason we wrote this, uh a guy named John Feffr, um who's a former partner at KKR, uh he wrote he runs a
family office now, he's become a close friend and mentor. He he wrote an initial paper called an institutional investor's take on crypto assets. I think this was back in 2017 where he was trying to justify from an institutional investor's um perspective, should you hold ETH, should you hold Bitcoin? those are really the only assets that he looked at and really the only ones that were in play and have survived uh in a major way since that cycle and he he basically said you should hold Bitcoin but not ETH right and so we we came uh back to this paper revisited co-authored it with him and looked at whether his thesis uh had proven correct now the price appreciation from a price
standpoint no right Bitcoin had outperformed ETH uh since the publication date, but ETH also went up meteorically during that time horizon, right? Uh but what we argue in this paper that is that this is more driven by uh speculation and the inability to coales around valuation models for these layer ones in the space. And if you if you looked at this in any way fundamentally and we we look at a couple of those throughout the paper, you can't justify the valuation it's currently trading at. It should be trading at, you know, um many many orders of magnitude lower and it could
still function in the same way. And so how do we look at that um in the paper? We we basically revisit the paper the John's original paper and then look at the valuation models through different lenses. So we do discounted cash flow that comes up way under under the mark for where ETH is currently valued. If you if you purely value it as a business cash flowing asset, it it's the current market valuation is wildly overstated. We look at it as an internet native commodity. uh which again I think is difficult to justify especially under the guise of these L2s that have launched right because what we're seeing
is it's prohibitively expensive to run an application or do transactions on the main chain unless unless you're a whale or or have a lot of capital to spend on gas fees. So um transactions applications migrate to the layer 2s and that value occurs relatively diminish dimminimously to the base chain and the actual value of ETH right so looking at it from this internet native commodity doesn't doesn't really uh hold a lot of weight then um as I mentioned in the in the caveat etha's money is another um lens that we look at this asset through uh but again I sort of already commented
on that if if ETH is money in this ecosystem. Yes, it's gas, but actually denominating any like real world asset activity or lending or um any application activity on chain, it's going to be done in in a US dollar collateralized stable coin. And that that has really come to fruition last over the last year where we've just seen stable coins balloon in um total transaction volume on Ethereum. So yeah, I mean that that's kind of a rough breakdown of the paper. Happy to talk about any of those aspects. If you've been paying attention, you know we're going heavy on AI here at Milk Road. We
launched the AI podcast, the AI newsletter, and now we're taking it up a notch with AI Pro. To celebrate the launch, we're giving you 20% off this week only. Head to the link in the show notes to lock in your discount on the only research you need to navigate the AI super cycle. Okay. So, you're basically telling me that per your calculations, your analysis, that as if we stand back and look at Ethereum as a business in terms of like the fees that it's charged, the diluted cannibalized ecosystem of L2s that are also trying to capture their own value and they all have their own tokens too that they want to see high valuations with. So, even even less of a reason for it to go back to Ethereum. Um you're basically telling us all that given that it's Ethereum's market cap of whatever it is today 350
400 billion whatever that is is actually overvalued basically if we were I guess if we were is there a comparable in terms of business in terms of some other kind of large money market that that does the similar amount of of stuff just not onchain like an old world thing or or is this just strictly you know from a from a business standpoint with no comp? I I think the latter I think it's pretty hard to uh to come up with an analog in the traditional finance space. Yeah. So I just think from a rational investor perspective it's it's very very difficult to justify the current valuation. Things could change to make that uh more attractive. Right. if if it does become a means of of uh trade and
denomination for trade or if um you know that there's the great website ultrasound.mmoney. If if it if the supply flips negative and stays negative for for a period of time, a longer period of time and into the future, um you could see people begin to value ETH as a as a function of the of the uh decreasing supply, right? So as as use increases, gas costs um increase, that total value could go toward the flipping the burn in a in a radically negative direction. And and so then then we get to an environment where
it could be an attractive asset to hold from a fundamental perspective. >> Right. And you were saying, and this I'm going to skip ahead a little bit to what we're going to discuss. Triton Liquid Fund, you guys are also a fund of some kind. So, I I want you to explain that to us in a little bit, but you did mention, and if we need to cut this part, that's okay. You did mention you guys don't hold ETH, >> correct? Yeah. No, we don't need to cut that. Um, I mean, we're we publish a lot of um a lot of research. You can find us on Tritonquid.com and our research section, we we publish pieces every week. And as you mentioned in the uh impetus behind this conversation is that the article around ETH that we published is what is Ethereum worth.com? And so we
we're not going to publish something and not follow through with our our public thesis and ideas. And so no, we don't told ETH and and uh yeah. >> Okay. Here here's a question for you. I guess maybe maybe you know you're giving us the the bare case on the actual price of ETH, but you're not telling us that ETH is not valuable. You know what I mean? You're we're still discussing that ETH does something quite important. I I I want to ask you, I guess, like what would make give what would cause you guys to have a different viewpoint on ETH, but maybe that's further down the line and maybe that's where we can look in your opinion without and this doesn't have to be a bullish or bearish take, Chris. What does ETH look like at maturity, right? Because obviously
something you guys studied, you're saying that it's overvalued, but it's still it's still early in what if what ETH is trying to be in the end. How does ETH kind of fit into the global finance reset of assets being onchain and everything that's that's clearly been developed es even since you guys wrote this report? >> Yeah. And so I I'll say, you know, I'll probably get a lot of uh heat on on crypto Twitter just talking about price, right? But to be clear, I'm a big fan of the Ethereum ecosystem. Definitely, you know, it is u the most decentralized as layer ones go uh absent Bitcoin and from just a developer perspective, number of applications on the chain, the L2
environments and how robust they are. I think that uh we continue to see those flywheel effects and and network effects across this asset whether from a developer programming language perspective or just general liquidity on that chain that's usable and available to all the applications there. So very bullish on just a trajectory of ETH especially because all these institutions have sort of signaled that hey if we're going to build um then we're going to do so on Ethereum right so I think that that head start and all of these network effects will continue to propel the ecosystem now where I'm more negative is does that acrude to
price which we've established I we don't think so to to answer your question on what it looks like like an end state. I think you you have what I would like to see is um really clean interoperability amongst all of these layer 2s right such that the bridging concerns and fears and hack risk are uh negligible if not zero and it's trivial for me to use poly market on polychain right and then and then move that capital to you base and uh trade on aerad drrome, right? Um and and that should be all of that background complexity and bridging
should be totally abstracted from the end user, right? It should function like uh like cash app or something, right? Moving money. Um and just like a simple a simple click of a button, all of this happens behind the scenes with no risk of of getting your money stolen. So I think that would be huge from a consumer perspective. I would also love to see and it looks like this is happening institutions continue to build on Ethereum and just the the actual settlement on the main chain those those gas fees to basically capture a lot more value for ETH such that back to my earlier point that you see the supply of ETH flip negative and that sustain sustainably
negative and then I think you can start to form ulate a a investable thesis around ETH the asset right but ETH the ecosystem I think uh continues to drive forward and all these things likely happen right >> stable coins are the biggest use case in crypto right now but let's be real using them on chain is still way too complex that's exactly the problem bridge is solving recently acquired by Stripe yep that's Stripe Bridge helps businesses send store accept and launch stable coins instantly explore the future of global financial infrastructure at milkroad.com/bridge.
Sure, tokenized financial products are the future, but there is a big sticking point. They all need to speak to each other. This is a tough problem to solve, but chain link does exactly that. It's the universal language for financial markets, linking Wall Street to web 3, banks to blockchain, and so much more. See how chain link is linking the world by going to milkroad.com/chainlink. So, one thing that you guys wrote recently that I really caught my eye and it obviously ties into Ethereum and institutional adoption and one of the biggest themes for us these days in Milk Road is institutional adoption. where is that value going to acrue and especially if you're telling us like well it's not Ethereum so you know we're obviously looking for those answers like what okay what do we get what do we look at right now where we can be part of that but
before I you dive into that Chris like I said some of your research points to you you guys kind of give this take that I I think is really interesting we haven't really heard it too much that a lot of us are looking at crypto as just one market right and if you go on crypto Twitter you read the narratives and the headlines it definitely feels feels that way. It's, you know, the macro, why is crypto underperforming compared to the S&P, right? Like all these different all these different takes. But you guys are saying that we need to start looking at crypto as multiple different separate economic verticals. Tell me more about that.
Yeah. So I think that pre in previous cycles um you could basically hold a basket of assets and sort of you know beta was everything and just time in the market was everything and provided you got in at a reasonable valuation you could hold this basket. I mean you could throw a dart and everything correlated to one on the way up on the way down. this past uh cycle, if you want to call it a cycle, we've seen greater dispersion than ever before um in crypto amongst not only verticals but um individual asset performance. And so uh what we do at Triton is we start with this highlevel taxonomy. Um and I
actually have the chart in our latest research piece on triton liquid.com. But you you can what what we do is we look at all right first first level is ecosystems tooling and middleware or applications right um and then we go a layer deeper a layer deeper such that we have 27 leaves on this tree. Um and again that chart is on our website but for in this little this little family tree. >> Yes sir. That's it. >> Okay. We got to zoom in. We got to zoom in for this one.
>> Yep. So ecosystem >> infrastructure is the is the is the the grandfather. >> Yes. So infrastructure and applications will be like the starting point. And then >> oh I see. Yeah they're two separate charts. >> If you go down into uh the far left upper corner leaf right ecosystems. If you look at like the salon or the layer one, right? Salana eco ecosystem, ethereum ecosystems, each of those are ecosystems. We also categorize L2s as ecosystems. Now once you get interoperability, maybe all of those ETH L2s fold into the ETH L1 basically sub sector there. Um >> if you go down to the bottom left in trading,
>> yeah, we'll look at so that's a the applications, right? end user applications and then this is under the DeFi bucket and then there's trading right so the launchpads dexes options aggregators and then market making right and so the the reason we segment the space this way is because um you if you're an investor looking at this uh space you need to actually especially from a fundamental perspective you need to be able to delineate amongst these categories and actually compare assets against each other, apples to apples in each of these categories. And so what we do, we have we publish robust research pieces. We've done over 320
uh writeups. These are like 20 to 40 page deep dives on assets. Um and uh we then run regression models on each of these leaves, right? So each leaf, each of those 27 leaves, we figure out what are the what are the metrics that matter for price appreciation for that vertical. And you you have to do a little bit fancy footwork. You got to normalize against macro variables, normalize against crypto cycles. But once you take out all of that and just focus on say like like layer ones, what are the metrics that matter? Uh so we have a bunch of categories network use, developer activity, economic
sustainability and capital flows. Then under that we have individual metrics that we can track real time real time on chain. Right? So under network uses it would be daily active addresses, transaction count, fee revenue and fee to market cap ratio. Right? Those those are models have found are the most significant variables that impact price appreciation. Right? And so what we want to do is we want to take all the layer ones that we wrote reports on and I think that's like our largest category. We have like I think 20 more than 25 of those write ups on different layer ones.
We only hold one layer one. So um then we're looking real time at these metrics on dashboards that we create to see okay are we holding the right layer one based off of our model and our qualitative research. Uh so that's how we approach it and we we think that this approach will become increasingly important as the asset class matures and these people actually coales around ways to value each of these subsectors that I've just referenced. >> So would you say you guys out of all these subsectors are most bullish on layer ones >> and in absolute terms? Yes. just like because that's where the most money like just in terms of market cap and probably we'll see greatest
uh volume of inflows moving forward. I think increasingly so we're moving to the bottom half of that taxonomy chart which is applications where we think you know that that will really drive um price appreciation is um actually selecting really strong companies strong founders launching products that actually acrue value to the token and that we believe is going to be the next wave of uh real price expansion >> you You know, Chris, I'm I'm I'm I'm formerly and still sometimes uh a pretty den kind of person. So, it's I like to see this kind of chart where you've
rebranded what we used to call like narratives and metas and things you got to trench for. You've rebranded it as as applications, which I think is great. Um but but it it does make sense because often the promise with all these narratives right NFTTS years ago uh AI which does have legs um you know in the crypto space but if you go back a year uh there was definitely a lot of vaporware type of stuff as well was another hot narrative uh similar to to to NFTTS um often the promise for us you know in the in the trenches is that like hey no there's one of a few of these are going to survive and become a true app that everybody uses is uh has not always panned out. Would you say out of all out of all the applications kind of floating
around crypto right now, is there any particular asset class that you would choose as kind of like your your best horse or or you can even feel free to name something like a poly market or whatever that you think actually has legs? And I'm just saying this as somebody who's been here for 5 years. I've followed these metas. They've come and gone. No one's super bullish on board apes anymore. And it's just something where in retrospect we might feel silly for thinking that these things were going to work out. Um, and I obviously I'm talking specifically in the consumer bucket right now, but you you can name any of these across your trading, lending, and consumer buckets as something that that you think actually has staying power, right?
Because that's the whole point. We want apps that actually work and people want to use for a long time. >> Yeah, absolutely. And I think to your point um you know these narratives come and go and a lot and and most of them don't have staying power and that's why this space has been so volatile and so speculative to date, right? Everybody jump like you get this big uh mass of people coalesing around a a couple of narratives at any given time. You've got the hot ball of money that just flows around those narratives. But most and if you actually look at these narratives which we've done over each successive cycle you're actually getting more
staying power each successive cycle with narratives right and and so I think from this last you know call it 24 to 25 I think we will see the the greatest retention of users and narratives and what are those that I think are top of mind. One I think is um is DeFi that it seems pretty clear to me currently and and is a large portion of our book. I think that you know we've seen Hyperlid do extremely well right now. We hold some lighter as well and we think just the the perpetualization of most assets on decentralized derivative exchanges
will increase exponentially, right? and people who are are blocked from um getting exposure to certain markets will look to onchain mechanisms to do so. Whether that's buying hold like the S&P that's a tokenized S&P mirror which saw like 500 mil of inflows very quickly when that was launched uh or individual stocks uh commodities um and there there are two forms that will take it'll take both pers so this would be short-term or hedging right and then it would take like uh spot holding which would be long-term directional exposure to these if you if you're procluded from gaining
exposure in your jurisdiction or or if you just have, you know, money that you want to keep in that realm, the crypto realm. >> Chris, the big news yesterday, of course, across the the Twitter sphere was the the latest draft of the Clarity Act and um we had a big discussion with Matt Hogan for Bitwise yesterday and it seemed like when I was reading through the draft that there was uh it the draft obviously was a a somewhat of a loss or kind of um more complex rules for stable coin yield. Uh, but it seemed like it was a pretty big win for DeFi. Do you guys, let's go back to the fund. Do you guys hold a lot of DeFi positions? Are you are you hot on DeFi L1's or L2s or or protocols or apps?
>> Yeah, mainly apps. And I think that that's where I mean, if you just look at these from a fundamental perspective, which we do, DeFi far and away as a category makes the most amount of money that acrus the actual token. And currently like we've not really seen multiples expansion on DeFi assets and and price to earnings ratios are super low. They're like way below tech earnings on a lot of on a lot of major protocols. So I think I think these are going to be strong winners as you know the broader market you know becomes more favorable.
>> Absolutely. Okay. Let's talk about a few other themes in your research and especially some of your newsletters lately. And this is stuff that that we all want to know. And it's it, you know, now it kind of feels silly to ask you this on a day where we're like literally, you know, it's it's I don't know what time it is for you, but it's 9:30 in the morning for me Pacific. Um, like I said, ETH bounced off 3,400. We're feeling good. The new year's coming. Clarity act tomorrow. Let's go. Four-year cycle. It's we beat it to death the last three or four months, but you guys are saying that it did not break. It was superseded. Let's tell me more about that structure and how you guys are seeing kind of the rest of the year play out here in 2026.
>> Yeah, so I think here's my take on the four-year cycle. I think that it it shouldn't matter rationally any longer, right? Uh and I'll explain why in just a second, but I think it does matter because the market's so accustomed to it and you know, especially the whales. I I am based in Abu Dhabi so I have a lot of interaction with uh a lot of the larger Chinese traders and you know they often dictate price action and they were net sellers all of all of Q4 right um and and most of the reasoning uh revolved around the this four-year cycle premise so whether or not it should be true um I
think it still is in place that said I think it will the cycles will become more and more compressed over time. So why do I think that it's it's not it shouldn't really be relevant any longer like it was predicated on Bitcoin having supply shock which is is much more muted today than obviously ever ever before uh and increasingly will become more muted each successive uh having um interest rate cycles uh which is a big driver of these cycles. If you if you map um rates against the cycles, there's actually some pretty strong correlation there.
Systemic blowups and just path dependence and reflexivity. Uh and so, you know, we have we have a robust piece on this. I won't go into too much detail on it, but it's also on our research section of our website um called why the four-year cycle is over. That said, I think there's this analogy that I think is apt where, you know, you have all like like traders are sort of like gazels, right, out in the out in the Sahara, right? And and gazels have this um herd reaction where if one of them picks up their heads and looks in a certain direction, then slowly all of them start popping up and looking and once the like a critical mass look in one direction, they start moving in that
direction, right? And so I think it's an apt analogy for markets where as people start to shift focus away from the four-year cycle over each successive one, you get uh faster and faster cycles until it becomes just sort of more aligned with equities where there's high dispersion. There's not just one direction that everything flows in. And so my guess is we'll still have a consolidation period throughout, you know, first part of this year, but going into the end of the year, we're going to start to pick up faster. And that'll happen each each turn of these cycles.
>> So wait, hold on. Let's let me rewind all the way to the very one of the very first things you said, Chris. Why were those Chinese whales selling? >> Why were they in Were they were they just gazels? One did it and they all did it. I think that uh basically I try to get to the root of this in my conversations and I I think it is it's like some one Bitcoin is just in like increase in price more than it ever has before just from um amount of capital that these traders made if they were in at the right time. Um and so people sort of said, "Okay, I've made enough money.
Let's pack pack the bags and go on vacation for a bit." and and that aligned with the four-year cycle aligned with the sort of herd behavior. You know, you talk to this big trader and he's doing that and then so you do it and then you talk to another trader and they're doing and you get that sort of um cascading effect. And so I that that's the best that's the best reasoning that I was able to pull out of the people I spoke with. >> A quick little timeout from the pod here because we've got a huge problem. You're listening to the show, but most of you are not actually subscribed, which is crazy because we're here every single day dropping the stuff you actually want to know, the liquidity, the charts, the major players, and which way the market's going to go. So, hit subscribe,
hit like, and let the algo know that you actually kind of like this. Okay, makes sense. Chris, I want to wrap this up. Obviously, you've got a lot of particular insight. Like I said, you guys are data scientists. The last question I'm going to ask you, we we are borderline retail people here. Milk Milk Road. uh we have institutional grade research on our end as well. We have we have a pro pro tier and everything. Um but I think of a lot of our audience and a lot of our our content especially on the podcast we are looking at this relatively from a a retail lens and we're trying to understand what's going on behind the scenes. So even a little bit of insight of like okay here's what the Chinese whales are doing. That's really valuable for us. What is a metric or something that you guys look at and
you really value when you're looking at the market that is maybe a little more obscure than what we're used to seeing? >> Yeah. And before I say that, I I'm actually a big fan of your all's research. I I uh >> I I actually accidentally signed up cuz I wanted to read one piece and >> and I wanted to read one piece and then I I started getting your pro reports and I was like, damn, these are good. I'm just going to stay sign up. And so I I I applaud you all. Um and uh >> it wasn't it wasn't an accident, man. It was a Freudian slip. You meant you meant to do it deep down.
>> And so uh yeah, to answer your question, I think like for us and a lot of the models that we look at, um it's a it's a composite of a bunch of of variables that matter, right? And so what we do is we break them down and we have a whole internal dashboard on this that we call uh internally our cell signal dashboard. And so if you if you regress any any of these verticals that we talked about during this call against um the change in price for for any category uh far and away the most significant variables are macro variables and that still is the case though that has begun to break this
cycle. So I think previous cycles you you really need to look at interest rates, you need to look at uh global liquidity, right? M2, those those things. Now what we're starting to see is ETF flows are becoming way more pronounced in terms of uh their significance as it pertains to price in the in the space as well as sentiment which is always I think going to be a factor until this asset class becomes you know far more mature and so probably from a retail perspective the if you're a long-term focused investor and not just trying to flip quick money looking at interest rates, M2 ETF flows, and then the fear
and greed index, then I think you can get you can start to you're not going to nail the bottoms and the tops, but you will start to move in a direction that's more favorable to your book, I think. Um, and and fear and greed is actually pretty is pretty spot-on, right? If you just sell extreme fear and buy extreme greed, like you probably outperform most traders in the space. I think I think a lot of us refuse to believe that it could be that simple, that there's like a goofy green and red radar thing that just tells us when to sell and when to buy and all we have to do is listen to Warren Buffett's like hundred-year-old mantra and we're good.
I think I think I think we need we like to believe that we're smarter and more sophisticated in that, but at the end of the day, that's usually pretty accurate. >> What is your what is your top quant like Chris? What out of all that your research guys, everybody on your team, your your your smartest person, whoever, what's the thing that that person is like this, uh oh, this just changed, we just crossed this line, whatever. What is the thing that they just they're like this is you have to listen to me. This just happened. >> Yeah, I think that the the whole team is pretty quantitatively smart and we work with some professors that we a lot of us met at MIT and we work with some professors that that are also smart. So, but again, I would go back to it's a composite. Like everybody has been
around the space long enough to where just looking at one metric is not uh is not enough. You have to sort of create a full mosaic using all this data and try to and try to uh triangulate what decision you should make as a result of those the alignment of those uh different variables. One one thing that we have built internally is something called a hidden markoff model um which is like a little more tech technical but it basically attempts to identify what's called a hidden state by looking at an observable state. So the observable state would be sentiment, right? And so it would be feeds from Twitter, feeds from Telegram, feeds from Discord channels. And the hidden state
that we're trying to identify is an asset in a bullish trending cycle, a bearish trending cycle or a neutral cycle. And if you can then go back to our taxonomy and say, okay, all like a critical number of the assets in the uh like DeFi lending category are in a bullish state. And you can say generally that that segment of the market is trending which aligns very well with the the the narrative of the moment in the space. >> Got it. Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. That's a good that's a good uh rounded answer uh and and the right thing to do.
And obviously if if people want to read more about that, they can read your newsletter and and and if also if you want more about it, you can read our macro reports because that's what Chris reads, >> our macro and our crypto pro reports and AI pro now as well. you can read those because that's also Chris likes reading those. So, you can check those out. It's a good plug plug for ourselves. Uh while we're at it, Chris, thank you so much for coming on the show. Thank you for your your contrarianing and uh and and maybe sobering take on ETH. Uh although I think a lot of us are going to keep uh hoping that it goes higher and find uh find some other some other magic uh some other charts that'll tell us the opposite. So, uh thank you for coming on the show, man.
>> Yeah, thank you so much. Thanks for having me. >> If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milkroad Swap. This is a deck that we built in partnership with Cow Protocol. Why did we build it? Not to make money, just honestly so we could have a place to do our swaps for the lowest fees that we could find. This is the fees on Ethereum, Arbitum, and BAS are only.15% fees. Uh this is a huge difference from uh other centralized exchanges that charge half a percent or even up to 1.2% fees on their swaps. Also, you can swap on Salana all at swap.mmillgrow.com.
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