ETF refillings, MEV-boost chat and more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #616 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone and welcome to another episode of The Daily way refuel I recap the latest news in the theme maker system I'm your host internet has the fifth of July 2023 alright everyone let's get into it so apologies for missing yesterday's episode everyone just I couldn't find the time to get it done uh but I'm back today with hopefully a longer episode to make up for it so let's jump right into the latest news so I'm sure you guys all saw over the last few days I guess like into late last week into the weekend that uh the SEC basically rejected uh or didn't reject but basically went back to these different companies that filed Bitcoin ETFs and said to them hey you need to refile and tell us which uh company is going to be a part of your kind of share share agreement or I can't remember the

exact terminology here but basically what ended up happening was that uh these companies refiled and they just named coinbase as as the the partner there and it's pretty obvious that we're gonna name coinbase considering that coinbase is the biggest us-based crypto exchange by far uh the most legit and definitely the most trusted but what I find hilarious is that imagine a world where these ETFs get approved by the SEC even though they list coinbase as uh you know a pretty important part of the actual ETF even though coinbase is currently being sued by the SEC there is a lot of silliness going on here and it shows uh exactly why people are upset about the SEC and how they're just not giving proper

guidance here and how they're basically have a double standard here and I think that the general consensus is that at least one if not all of these Bitcoin ETFs are going to get approved this time uh because of the fact that of the matter is that we have entities like BlackRock uh submitting right and and it seems like things have changed a market seems to be pricing pricing this in so definitely a kind of win change there and you know it's funny I was talking to some real life friends yesterday about this and that they're not um in crypto I would say they hold crypto they know I'm into it obviously uh but they're not like in crypto and I was telling them like hey you know what what's funny because we're talking about like the next bull market and I'm like you know what I reckon in 12 months we're going

to look back and we're going to basically say that the the Bitcoin ETFs being filed again was the start of the new bull market it just took a while for the market to actually be convinced of that and then one of my friends made a little bit of a comment he's like oh an ETF stuff is that happening again like you know that we've been hearing about that for years now and I'm like Tim yeah we have right like that's that's fair but this time actually does feel very different it feels very different because there is um you know entities like BlackRock submitting it the SEC has an outright rejected this the fact that the SEC went back to these companies and basically said hey you need to refile because you missed uh such and such right you missed out naming this company as um as a partner here and they did

that it's kind of a wind change because if the SEC was just going to reject these um ETFs they probably wouldn't have done that right like when you think about it why would they do that why would they go back to these companies and say hey you just need to refile uh with this right I don't think they would have done that if they thought that if they were going to reject days so in my mind I wouldn't say it's like a certainty that these ETFs are going to get approved but I think it's more likely than not and I think a lot of people kind of have come to consensus on that there are still definitely a bunch of disbelief out there from people who say no you know we've seen this game before the SEC is so hostile towards crypto why would they approve it right

now it's like okay but if they were that hostile then I mean they wouldn't go back to these companies and say you have to refile uh they would basically just wait until the deadline and reject the ETF right they wouldn't waste their time doing that in saying that I mean maybe they are doing that because it's the SEC and Gary ganza likes to likes to screw with crypto but I don't know I I kind of feel like at least personally that it's a higher chance than not so yeah I mean we'll have to see I don't remember what the exact date is for the first ETF deadline to get approved it's not blackrocks it's someone else's um I think it might be fidelities I'm not sure but I think it's sometime in August so we've still got a little while away here maybe four or five weeks or so

until we get to that first deadline but if that gets approved that means that the rest of them are probably going to get approved because the sac doesn't want to be seen as playing favorites I think um uh with these sorts of things it definitely brings more attention to them than they would like so yeah if one of them gets approved then I would assume that all of them are going to get approved and it's going to be obviously a very big deal because uh as I said like for most of the last few years uh I guess like for a long time now not even the just last few years for a very long time now all the atfs have gotten rejected for various different reasons so that would signal a pretty big win change but why it's a big deal as well is because it basically

marks in my opinion the true institutional institutionalization of the crypto asset class it basically signals that these big tradify institutions think that crypto is here to stay uh starting with Bitcoin you know obviously eth's coming after that I mean if the Bitcoin one gets approved you bet your ass that all the 8th ones are going to also all the um these companies are going to file for an eth ETF and then if the SSA approves that one uh that's going to be funny because the SSC has gone on record and saying they think Easter security but if they approve the ETF without uh I guess like going after eth or trying to get it classified as a security I mean it's pretty much a guarantee that they're never going to go after eth or try to label it as a security and he just gets

grandfathered in as a as a commodity there so you yeah I mean I'll be keeping a close eye on this sorts of stuff because obviously it has a big it's going to have a big effect on the markets generally it could be a sell the news event like we could pump up before then and just sell down and then not go back up until sometime next year as I've said to you guys before I I kind of feel like the rest of this year is still just going to be crab market action even though it's been a bit positive lately I still think we're going to be stuck in that range of 1000 to 2500 for eth um you know we might not even go as high as 2500 but usually the way these things work is that what happens is that the price will go to a point that it hasn't

been for like the whole year so let's just say eighth goes to 2500 right it breaks the the last local hi it had for the year which was or I guess like uh last year I think it was last year I haven't uh um the time times just going so fast lately it's kind of hard for me to to keep track of it I'm just looking at the chart here no it went to like 21 I guess yeah 21 30 or 2100 ish in April of 2023 that was obviously after the chappella uh of hard Fork went live and before that it went over 2K in August before the merge so other than those points ether's not been above uh 2K uh uh except except very briefly in in May but but not really um and I'm just looking at the chart seeing this so if

he was to go above 2K and then go above that 2200 Mark or that 2150 mark it could run to like 2500 but then it could get sold down again and maybe it goes back to 1700 or something like that so there's no guarantee that just because it goes that high it's just going to keep going and going but that's actually very healthy from a market point of view but that's what could happen it could go up to that and then the ETF could get um you know rejected or sorry it could get accepted and it becomes to sell the news events and then we go back down and then we start the the bull market in Earnest next year so yeah but we'll say we'll see anyway enough on the markets going to move on to a bunch of tech related news uh now

so everstake put out an update that they've updated their overview of ethereum's upcoming holski a test net to reflect all the changes discussed during the second coordination call with devs validators and ecosystem players so if you are interested in keeping up to date with this new test net and how it's coming along everstake seems to be the place to keep an eye on in order to keep updated with everything they have pretty much this whole breakdown here as long as well as the timeline as you can see uh the timeline they're still scheduling mid-september for chain Genesis here obviously trying to Target that September 15th date for for one year since the merge and then there's a bunch of bunch of key takeaways from a coordination called two at the bottom here so just wanted to put that on your

radar you can go check that out I'll link it in the YouTube description below all right so rockapool has crossed 3 000 node operators so a big milestone for the rockapool community here they also crossed three percent of the active validator market share According to raider.network which is great to see you can actually see that here rated on network you can see rocketpool is at three percent uh which is awesome um and yeah I guess like the way this is kind of measured 3000 nodes uh it's kind of 3000 rocket pool uh mini pools right so essentially what it is is that uh rocker pool operators spin up these mini pools obviously um and then each of them will go live as a validator on ethereum using um some I

was using it from the deposit pool which people obviously uh put it in there to get uh to get arith or rocker pull eth and to get exposure uh there so very very cool to see this from rocketpool very cool to see their growth here you know it's funny because often I'll have conversations with people and they'll be like you know Lido's so big these other lsds are smaller and I'll explain to them like yeah okay but there's a bunch of reasons for that as I've expanded the reefer before Lido came first had very you know had a first mover Advantage other Solutions especially decentralized ones aren't as capitalally efficient as Lido but at the same time given all the limitations that rockapool has and how late it came to the game compared to compared to Lido I think I'm very impressed by its market share because a

rocker pool because it has so many different note operators and you know and because it's trying to be decentralized because it's trying to make it so that people can actually uh um have a confidence that they're not going to get like rugged by some centralized party or that they're not contributing to uh the centralization of the beacon chain it's going to be a slower growth uh now if rockapole only had like 30 nerd operators and it acted the same way as lato did I'm sure it would have grown a lot more than it has just because it doesn't have to deal with the capital inefficiency that it generally has to deal with and just to put the tangible I guess kind of numbers to this or not numbers but like tangible examples to this um before Rocco upgraded from 16 eighth LEDs to 8th LEDs they kept hitting the

ceiling because uh it was very Capital inefficient to Mint our wreath and then it would trade at a premium and they wouldn't weren't able to Opera to onboard nerd operators in order to get more R8 minted and uh there was that premium there that you could actually Arbitrage and make ethon because it was actually a demand a lot of demand for arith but just not enough demand uh to to um to start up mini pools because it was too expensive but then they brought it back down and they they increased the efficiency there and they increase the R8 efficiency and uh with the eight eight LEDs and that has led to more and more growth for rocketpool and they're thinking about reducing that to four eighth or in one day maybe two eighth but that's not the only way to increase efficiency of Rocket pool there is a

bunch of things that I've highlighted uh Jasper's talked about before uh you know in Twitter there's like the five big upgrades coming to rockapool the odar Awards being redirected to the PDL in order to incentivize more liquidity and stuff like that and obviously see rocket Pool isn't the only decentralized player decentralized staking or LSD player in town we have a bunch of others that are live and going live soon as well as I've mentioned before I was doing a lot of great work there but they are definitely all less efficient than centralized staking platforms but that's just the way it is and then at the end of the day centralization is always going to be more efficient but what I'm most impressed by is the fact that even though rockapool has been you know rather inefficient for most of its life just because of the way it's architected

um and you know obviously it gets better and better over time but still just for most of its life that existed with with that 16 eighth mini pool um it still managed to capture and it came later than later it still managed to capture three percent market share and growing like it hasn't slowed down it's been one of the the biggest growths um growing lsds uh since withdrawals went live and and for for a little while now so I'm I'm expecting to continue to see that continue and I think as I've said before as more of these Services come online it's going to chip into the market share of of not only Lido but centralized exchanges too I mean you can see coinbase has actually gone down here coinbase's uh market share overall not just of lsds but just overall is 10.22 that that's gone down I mean that was

that like that was much higher than that um and I think that's a combination of uh it going down because people are withdrawing and it going down because uh other services are going up so generally I think the beacon chain is definitely looking healthier we want Lido to go down as well obviously we don't you know we want lighter to be at least under 20 right but that's a long journey to get there and we will get there I believe but uh it's going to take quite a while uh to do that and it's going to take more competition it's going to take more uh kind of like not not direct vampire attacks on lighter but just more liquidity incentives for other protocols in order to steal market share or take market share away from Lido and increase their own market share across the the

board there but anyway who can check out Jasper's tweet here I'll link it in the YouTube description below but great to see that rocketpool continues to grow here all right the final round of contributions to the kzg ceremony has been announced so if you haven't contributed yet now is the time the minimum number of transactions has been lowered to eight so you only need to have done eight transactions on the ethereum address that you want to participate with on uh within the kcg ceremony The Blacklist was just cleared and contributions will close on the 23rd of July um this year obviously so yeah this is the final round for the kzg ceremonies if you haven't gotten included yet and you want to you should definitely go check this out at ceremony.ethereum.org I think we are

well over 100 yeah we're at 112 000 total contributions and now which is amazing I mean I'm so happy to see this I remember saying that I thought it would get a hundred thousand and it was kind of a moonshot uh a kind of bet for me there but we did it and you know with 18 days left I'm sure we're going to keep going higher than this here but yeah if you want to be part of History if you want to be part of ethereum History definitely go check this out if you haven't yet and have your submission uh included in the kzg ceremony here all right so um something I want to talk about with regards to Mev um generally and kind of Mev relays and this is what something I talked about the other day I alluded to this about how the ultrasound money relay uh how it

has gotten such a big market share in a short period of time and it is by far the biggest relay now it's at 47 or 48 of total market share of both unregulated and regulated relayers um and flashbots is second at 23.6 and it's kind of amazing how quickly and how brutally the the change has been because flashbots used to be 90 and that was uh what 10 months ago or something like that when when the merge happened and then that has fallen to 23.6 and ultrasound money which only came out a few months ago has up has gone up to 48 now while it's awesome to see that a non-censoring relayer has such a large market share I don't like seeing any centralization or any kind of like big

market share for any service even if it's one that you would consider to be healthy for the beacon chain and I'll explain why so for example within the staking ecosystem if if rocker pool was 50 of the network I would hate that right that would be really really bad right that wouldn't be a good thing at all if rocketpool was was 30 it still wouldn't be great even though rocketball is decentralized service I don't think it would be a good outcome right so and I'm not trying to pick on rocketpool here but I'm I'm using them as a decentralized kind of pool um that has a large market share here I wouldn't like that and honestly I probably wouldn't like there being 50 solo stakers on on the Chain either I mean it'd be very hard to measure that and actually get an accurate accurate

measurement on that but I don't think that would be healthy either because I think that that would mean that only the richest people could could be staking or would be staking and it would price out a lot of the the smaller the smaller fish and it means that the smaller fish aren't staking which isn't great either and there's a bunch of other reasons too like giving too much power to one group and stuff like that um but yeah and the same is true for Mev boost relayers because right now ultrasound money is non-censoring has 48 market share share you know we think it's healthy right because they're not censoring but at any time literally any time they could just start censoring right and no no one could stop them so that would not be healthy at all because that would mean that the uh ofac um

compliancy or the censorship would go up immediately by 48 um so you add on flashbots which is at 23.6 uh I mean like you just add them all together right you add this add this I'm just doing quick math in my head that's 28 plus so it's 30 there so we would go back up to almost 80 percent instantly if if ultrasound money relay if the people operating that decided to start censoring That's not healthy right that's not healthy for the beacon chain that wouldn't help anyone so I want to see more diversity on the real air side of things I want to see more of these relays be more competitive but the problem is is that none of these other relays from my understanding do what ultrasound money does which is the optimistic relaying which is basically assuming that the block is valid and

requiring a bond to be put up and if if the block is not valid then essentially the bond is forfeited there so I don't know why the other relayers aren't doing this it might be a regulatory thing where they don't want to be they don't want to be responsible for any kind of bond and it might mean that they have fiduciary duty or stuff like that I'm not sure uh why that's the case maybe it's something that they think is too risky to implement for themselves but the the but the thing is that's like the number one reason that ultrasound money relay is so big is that optimistic relaying because they're just much better at the latency game than the other relayers are at this point in time um so I'm hoping that the other relays do integrate that but honestly long term we're going to eliminate the relay

infrastructure anyway because as I said like having a party get this big is not healthy for for the network and there actually isn't even that many relays anyway right there's only like 10 of them uh not even I think there's nine yeah there's nine of them that's not good that means that nine relayers essentially have control over uh the the um the sensitive resistance of ethereum right uh because if everyone's using Mev boost and everyone's using these relayers and there's only nine of them well those nine could just all decide to censor and then we're at near 100 censorship on the beacon chain now obviously that's not the case and there's a very low chance of that happening but it's still a risk that's why I have been encouraging uh people to spin up relays if they can or

use the ones that aren't censoring using non-censoring ones but at this point I would be saying that if you care about sensitive resistance you shouldn't be using um ultrasound money because it's it's too big right it's too big and it could be it could um it could uh obviously uh turn on censorship at some point and it wouldn't be good for the health of the network obviously if you don't use ultrasound money a relay uh here you would be losing a lot of profits because you'll be losing almost 50 percent of all Mev boost blocks you wouldn't be you wouldn't be getting because uh you aren't you aren't talking to the biggest relayer so it is a complex multi-dimensional issue here it is definitely not something that's going to be solved overnight there are lots of Solutions in in play stuff like PBS obviously I've spoken about before but

yeah I just figured that was worth bringing up there and on raider.network you can actually see the block space distribution of each of the entities here so every single one of them pretty much or at least almost all of them have ultrasound the ultrasound money relay as the dominant relay and that only make that definitely just makes sense right um but I think uh coinbase is the only one that doesn't have ultrasound money is the biggest one block shroud seems to be the biggest one for coinbase right now um but all the other services oh and and Kraken sorry Kraken still has flashbots as the biggest but other than that the rest of them um all the ones talking to Ultrasound money yeah it seems to be the biggest there which is of all the big entities so that definitely makes sense uh in terms of the biggest I think uh it's

Bitcoin Swiss they have 41 but it seems Bitcoin Swiss is not talking to flashbots because flashbots isn't isn't here they are talking to censoring relayers because they are still talking to block native but they're not talking to two flashbots which is which is weird I guess but yeah and then you have like Celsius here who is talking to only flashbots and has some vanilla blocks which is I guess even weirder but it is what it is right so yeah I just figured that was worth bringing up and chatting a little bit about because as I said before censorship resistance on ethereum is a critical issue we don't want to have any vectors that can lead to more centralization of that uh and I think that ultrasound money being as big as it is has become one of those vectors even though they are a good actor right now

there's no guarantee that they will be in the future and if we want to improve that we definitely have to uh put you know bring more relays online maybe stop talking to the ultrasound relay or get these other relays to integrate optimistic relaying so that they can be more competitive with the ultrasound money relay all right another tweet from Jasper here with regards to a rocket pool so he says he had a huge shout out to Kane Walman for releasing his research for on-chain rocker pool voting so you can check this out at GitHub and then Jessica continues saying there is no doubt like rocket pools to participate you must have staked RPL against the validator the unique implementation does not work without uh does not work with any service a thread so there is a thread here from Jasper that explains all of this you can check this out for yourself

I'm not going to go through the whole thread here but there's also the GitHub repository repository that uh goes into the research around this and how rockapool has a unique governance ecosystem here but I think it's it's critically important for rocketpool to have a very robust decentralized governance system because of the fact that it's such a key player in such an important uh I guess like uh thing in the ethereum ecosystem and that is taking on the beacon chain there was a little bit of I guess fud recently around the p-dow and the things that it can control so there are from my understanding two dollars in rockapole there is the Odell which is the Oracle Dow um which is the uh the Dow that um that I'm a part of I run software as part of

my rocker pool node a rockable smart node stack and that software basically does things like Oracle price updates it does things like the tree generation once a month to for rewards stuff like that right and that all runs automatically in in the background um as part of the the smart node stack and then there is the P Dow which is more on the decentralization or decentralized governance side of rocketpool itself the development of rockapool as a protocol funding of rockapool the um the treasury gets handled by the pdowell I believe so all of that sort of stuff and obviously that stuff is critically important that stuff you know dictates the direction of the protocol uh whereas I mean I think I think actually this is this is a good way to frame it Oracle dial the Odell is is more of a passive dial there are

things that the Odell do vote on but most of the time they are a passive doubt right whereas with the uh the uh the P Dow they're much more active because they're developing The Rocker pull protocol they're funding different things within rocker pool out of the treasury they're doing decentralized governance and research and stuff like that so yeah there's active and kind of passive doubts there and the goal actually for the odd hours to get rid of it eventually to make make it so that's actually not necessary at all for rocketpool to operate whereas the P dowel is probably always going to be necessary because it is the way the rocker pull protocol you know funds itself and keeps maintainers on and keeps the the protocol being built out and researched um and ways for rocketpool to improve over time but maybe one day the P Dow is also phased

out maybe one day the Rockefeller protocol ossifies I'm not saying it's anytime soon but maybe one day it does because it is in its final State there are not really any improvements left for it maybe there's incremental improvements that aren't worth having uh you know a um a big Dow around uh for and and it kind of gets ossified there but it's too early to tell on that front there's still a lot of stuff on the rocketpool road map a lot of a lot of stuff for rocketpool to do so that's what the P Dow is for that but you can read Jasper's thread for a full breakdown on that in case I got anything wrong there I'm definitely not an expert here that's just from my reading so I'll link Jasper's thread in the YouTube description below for you to check out all right so sismo has introduced the

sismo App Store it is provided for all Builders to leverage the power of zero knowledge proofs for their communities you can create your own sismo connect apps from sysmos templates no coding skills required so there is a blog post with examples and more that you can check out here for this is my apps or sismo app store if it actually loads I just got an error there for some reason uh even though it loaded yeah this has given me an error great I'm not sure why it's giving me an error let me see if I can just hard refresh see if that fixes anything uh no it's unfortunately giving me a client-side error for some reason on on this front here and there is no uh Twitter thread so yeah I fortunately I can't show that to you guys right now but just the refresher on what sizmo is

is basically a protocol for a protocol to enable the efficient and proactive use of zero knowledge proofs now obviously you hear about zero knowledge proofs in the context of scaling a lot but they have a lot of implications and a lot of use cases with privacy so if you want to build privacy apps and you want to get them and you want to have them in like an app store this is what's his most trying to do here they've launched an app store where you can build these apps you can put put these apps live on the App Store and people can go there and use them and get value out of them uh by using the different tools that sismo has provided here and that's what they basically focusing a lot of their attention on uh now it's obviously like just other app stores that you may see like the IOS app

store and the Google Play app store and stuff like that but this is focused on zero knowledge proofs and how they can be applied for all sorts of privacy preserving apps uh and things like that so you can check out the blog post for yourself hopefully you don't get the same error I did here um but yeah I'll link that in the YouTube description below all right I've left a few minutes here because I I wanted to continue the conversation I was having earlier at the start of the episode about the kind of like market conditions the ETFs stuff like that and how things can kind of seem obvious in hindsight but generally on a longer term time time frame they become uh more concrete so what I mean by this and what I said before earlier I said like the market needs to be convinced that it's

turned from like a bull to a bear Mark sorry for a bear to a bull market and I discussed this with Eric on our podcast over the weekend as well but the reason why I say it needs to be convinced is because you you saw what happened in 2021 where Ethan I guess like crypto generally topped out in May 2021 right and Heath went from 4900 to 1700 but then it went back up again now usually when it goes back up again like that it's called a dead cat bounce but what ended up happening was that actually went higher than the previous all-time high so technically it wasn't a dead cat bounce because it went to a new all-time high but it later came out that the reason that this happened was because of the leverage right The Leverage of 3ac

the ponzinomics of Terra The Leverage of other players like FTX and stuff like that so the real top the top that all the metrics actually line up with was May 2021 so that's where the bull market really ended it's just that we had that second kind of swing that second leg because everyone was just using leverage and everyone was borrowing from Tom to pay Harry and it wasn't it obviously wasn't great and wasn't going to last because all that debt needed to be paid back and as we saw most of that debt isn't getting paid back because it doesn't exist right that it blew up in terms of uh the money was put into assets that went down a lot and now the the um that those assets are worth a fraction of what they were when they were bought and the money's just not

there right so the market needed to be convinced after that kind of dead cap bounce in a normal condition in a normal decade bounce it wouldn't have gone to all-time high but that was the market being convinced that the bull market was over and the bear Market had begun and that's why uh and and sorry not that's why the uh the reverse is is what we're seeing now what we're seeing now is the market needing to be convinced that we've gone from the bear Market to the bull market because it it for so long has sat at these depressed prices and it's been a really it has been a very painful period for for the whole market for a long time now you know every time that you bought it would go down for a long time and now as a Trader if you buy

you get chopped up right it and a lot of people lost money kept blowing themselves up so there was a lot of pain there's a lot a lot of pain but I don't think there's my much pain left really I think all the pain is subsided now but what needs to happen is that people need to need to forget the pain the market needs to forget the pain and it just takes time and I've talked about this time-based capitulation before and over time it starts getting more and more convinced it starts it starts starting to believe right and and there is that kind of Wall Street chart that I don't really like it's like that Wall Street cheat sheet chart that shows like the stages of a bubble but I think that what the thing I like most about it is the end state of it where it basically says

that people uh for a long time say you know this are in disbelief they say oh this is a sucker's right you know this isn't the new bull market this is just going to get sold back down that's where it basically changes from a bear to bull market because when you still have people in disbelief and the market just keeps proving them wrong and just keeps saying No this is actually a bull market then those people hop on board the bull market uh has already begun right but but they've been convinced that it's already begun and that's why we see the craziness happens so quickly and that's why the Bull marketing can get going so quickly because once the market is convinced everyone starts changing into a into a bull market mindset people aren't selling they're like you know we're going higher there's no point selling

now there's no point trying to scalp this I'm just going to keep uh you know buying and then all these new narratives keep coming in money gets uh recycled through all the different coins everything pumps up together and then eventually we hit another top and the market repeats the same bear market and crab market that it always has so the Cycles are actually the same in in pretty much like any Market I think any any Market that it has um isn't influenced too much by I guess like external centralized factors like there are um excuse me there are some factors like for example housing in certain countries that are deeply influenced by external factors you can take two extremes here you can take the extreme of Australia where housing is influenced

by a lot of different government policies that um that are put in place in order to make sure that housing can't actually go down it's just like up only so it's basically a Ponzi um and some of those include like tax breaks and bringing in a lot of a lot of immigrants um you know I've got nothing against immigrants but Australia brings in a lot of them we don't have the infrastructure to support it and we don't have the housing to support it so obviously prices go up for housing because there's more Demand right and then you have the opposite end of the Spectrum which is something like Japan which doesn't really have any immigration um for one reason or another and their real estate uh and there are other policies in place as well but their real estate isn't very valuable it hasn't really been going up then you look at

Singapore as well most of it is state-owned the real estate uh so when look and and because of that real estate is not a speculative thing you know think people speculate on in Singapore and now because of that right and when you think about that that's the external factors uh basically coming in and influencing very heavily the price of real estate now don't get me wrong crypto has external factors too but crypto is mostly a kind of like unregulated un uh kind of like inhibited Global Market that gets ahead of itself a lot of the time because it is still nice and it's still early uh there aren't really valuation models that people can use and it gets ahead of itself in Bull markets and bear markets and that's why you see things happen so quickly especially in a bull market because greed is more powerful than fear

in a bull market right like no one I mean there's no fear in a bull market there's this is going up forever and there's all these new narratives that come out and people start telling themselves all these new things and they start buying bags and maybe they buy this thing and it goes up like 10x and they're like oh I'm gonna hold for 100 x because of such such and such and then it doesn't do that right and then they kind of like hold it down down to the bottom it's the same thing every time and if you can Master these Cycles I think and I believe that that is the key to be becoming a very good and successful investor mastering the long-term Cycles I think most Traders 99 of them will probably end up bobbling themselves up or giving all the money back that they make I think that first

time investors especially first-time crypto investors are nine times out of ten are going to blow themselves up or just lose their money because they just don't know what they're doing but if you're on your second or third cycle you definitely have a lot and you've stuck around and you've kind of absorbed the knowledge you definitely should have the knowledge and wisdom to understand these longer term Market Cycles now and understand how they play out and understand how to position yourself for the best success from uh from that right and that's something that I've learned uh through a lot of pain and through holding things down through losing money in the early days but I've definitely learned that and I try to impart that wisdom onto people not as investment advice or financial advice of which none of that was but just general kind of like uh advice to pay attention to to uh

to make sure that you know what what you're getting yourself into you know how to manage your risk stuff like that managing risk is like most of the game anyway but understanding the long-term Cycles managing your risk around that and placing the right long-term bets you're going to win in my opinion you're going to win there's no guarantee of it happening but I think you have a better chance than someone who doesn't do any of that right uh so yeah anyway as I said none of that is investment or financial advice but something that I figured was worth talking about on the episode today but on that note that's going to be it for today so thank everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give it a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all tomorrow

thanks everyone