Eric Balchunas on $ETH ETF Launch!

23 Jul 2024 · 36:55

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reviews the first day of trading for the spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which he grades a solid A: they did about 23% of the spot Bitcoin ETFs' debut, against a forecast of 20%, with just under $1.1 billion in combined volume. He explains why trading volume matters to investors, how outflows from Grayscale's higher-fee ether trust compare with the GBTC unlock, and what its cheaper mini trust may reveal about the Grayscale brand. He also suggests pitching ether as an internet that no tech giant can control, doubts that tokenization will easily disrupt ETFs, and notes Bitwise's strong showing and Fidelity's network of advisors.

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welcome back to squat box this morning spot theum ETF set to begin trading today the SEC approved ETF applications from 21 shares bitwise Black Rock Fidelity ey shares uh benck and uh Franklin Templeton as long along with Invesco Galaxy B Nation after a long chaotic roller coaster of drama surprises and plot twists we have arrived at Tuesday the 23rd the first day of the spa ether ETFs and at 4:30 p.m. eastern time we have concluded the first day of trading of the E ETFs that is that day is behind us thank God that day is behind us we've got on the show today Eric funis one of the Bloomberg ETF boys back for the crypto industry's second ETF debut Eric

welcome back to bank list how did how did today go were there any surprises did we overperform did we underperform what were their performance expectations at all tell us like first thoughts what stands out the most uh I solid is what I would go I would say a solid a maybe not an A+ you know I'd say our prediction was that these things would take or do about 20% of what the spot Bitcoin ETFs did and they did 23% so but you know it could have been worse uh they could you know the big thing that had was in the back of my mind the whole time was the eth Futures ETFs MH if you remember really flopped I me they were almost like an

embarrassment like nobody cared and the Bitcoin Futures ETF did really well now granted the eth Futures launched post SBF in the in the dark times whereas the Bitcoin Futures launched in like the the 69,000 peak of 2021 but still I would say anybody who's in ether person should be really happy with this this is solid um 20 may seem like well okay you know I'm a little jealous but the Bitcoin ETFs was the biggest launch ever and like Beyond normaly like almost like an anomaly in physics so it'd be like saying hey would you like 20% of Bill Gates is worth a

net worth and you'd be like hell yeah like I would lock into that right that's sort of what this is like I would not compare it um that's how big the Bitcoin ETFs were compared to a normal launch I mean these blew these blow everybody away so like for example even the one that did the the least good which was 21 shares had eight million in trading that's more than 90% of new ETF volume on day one so even the the last one blew away the normal the norm so um and it all went well there was no hiccups no weird pricing or nothing that I saw so um I I think it went really well smoothly and solid it

would have is how i' put it I will take a solid a as a formerly B student I'll definitely take the a uh what was the final volume number for the day what do we we passed a billion dollars in trading volume cumulatively what what what did we end up at one billion or one spot 083 so just shy of 1.1 billion um and notable is that all like all of them saw double over 10 million except for 21 shares that's good like there was a there was a strong middle class here it wasn't like Black Rock did like almost everything and then everybody else was like starving um they all did pretty well it was a nice Cascade from like grayscale uh to Black Rock to Fidelity

down to 21 shares the one thing also to note is that the grayscale eth ETF which was a is is probably going to be like an unlock sort of like gbtc right that has $450 million of trading that's probably mostly outflows good news is it's well overwhelmed by the inflows of the other guys um so you have 600 and something million net um the other guys did over eth which that's probably gonna at some point it's a good chunk of that's going to be inflows so look for some decent chunky inflows over the next couple days yeah and so I think there's two big

metrics that everyone's looking at right now I think we started the day at $3,500 uh on ether dropped down $100 at the bottom but we we're staying flat overall on on the day and so you're saying that we're getting basically complete outflows out of grayscale which is to be expected we saw this coming because this is what happened with Bitcoin ETF everything else was inflows you and James on Twitter have been talking a lot about uh volume trading volume which I know is like a very important metric of Health for these ETFs that trade but what about net inflows under do we know have any how do we have any sort of indication about like the inflows of these things well I would just I don't know if you can bring up the tweet I just put out like five minutes ago sure this is not quite the

final numbers but it's close boom uh no that's the next one that's my wife and kids which is always fun to talk about um okay so you see how grayscale is 458 that's bad but you see how the rest if you subtract the total from 458 you get like 600 million in change that's good so in other words gray scale can only be outflows and the rest can only be inflows yes okay yes okay I mean I I guess it's possible people bought eth at 2.5% but it would be silly would be weird um and normally if you have ETFs

trading on day one the all the volume is people buying it because there are no holders yet so who would be selling it so it's all it's all going to be buying pretty much now there is some market makers who and hedge funds who might have been doing some ARB um but even that could convert into flows but there is some trading going on that may not be like a onetoone flow thing but I'd say largely speaking that's probably true okay so we're looking at that like maybe extremely roughly we'll know more in the future but about a 100 million uh dollars of inflows into the ETF once you net out the grayscale uh outflows MH can we talk about the grayscale mini eth Trust and this had the same exact structure with the Bitcoin trust but I

honestly still find it confusing uh so gray scale put in 10% uh of their Au into the mini eth trust it's at a much lower fee I think it's at 0.15% yearly fee versus the 2.5% fees of the grayscale eth E trust and this is something that I think is both very similar to the the Bitcoin ETF story the gbtc story uh but it's also different in the fact that the um Bitcoin grayscale mini Trust came so much later in the lifespan of the Bitcoin ETFs whereas with ethereum we have it right here and now can you talk about this this how this um mini trust is impacting the story it's a new variable so it looks like it did $94 Million worth of I'm

sorry $63 Million worth of trading you know people were inher they just basically got that as a dividend almost so a billion dollars is in that fund at the beginning of the day now is is that money people leaving because they're just so pissed at grayscale they're like I don't care if I got this new cheaper one or is it new people who are like hell yeah 15 basis points I will buy that as a fresh person this is where we're going to really learn about grce scale's brand and the reputation if their brand took because their brand took a little beating uh the gbtc outflows definitely especially in the crypto world I don't know if it translated to like Norm normal Boomers or whatever but we'll if eth if th if

that volume is inflows that's a good sign for grayscale a relief if those are outflows and their big ones outflows uh that that's that's a bad sign for them because it it shows that they can't even like rectify the situation with literally the cheapest one in the market um so unknown unknown how do you think this goes from here uh we just got day one of trading volume so I mean some data but not that much data what do you looking forward for as we finish off this week and as we enter next week is this just all trading volumes that you're looking at yes all trading volumes and why are trading volumes so important um

because um okay first of all most investors and Traders and institutions anybody of any size even retail they just like to see some volume it's like you you you don't want to buy something that never trades it's like the spreads are wider uh you don't want to be the only person at a party so volume's just good to get like something going a little Mojo they also lower the spread so the price of going in and out is lowered by the more people that trade it the more market makers are making markets in it and so you have a tight spread and then you have a um over time the volume is big fish bait the more volume if these ETFs as a couple of them can start trading you

know3 $400 million a day there's going to be bigger and bigger fish that are like well I think I could go in there nobody would notice big investors like to put on positions and not have anybody know they're there and if they become too much of the volume they don't like that so the more volume you have the more chance you have of catching a big fish um so that that's why it's important and on day one again eth is unusual eth but mostly the volume is new people buying so it's a signal of inflows like indicator so those would be the reasons that we really look for volume as I said earlier and I always say that the two most important

ingredients for an ETF category to grow are low fees and high volume and these already have a lot um on day one uh they got the low fees obviously and then here comes the volume you're in good shape then there's no reason outside of just not being into ether to buy them not buy them it it just removes all the possible hurdles to purchasing them like H I'm into it but it's too expensive or uh I'm into it it's cheap enough but I don't know it's just not enough liquidity you eliminate all that or I'm into it but there's no big brand names so again you've got you check all the boxes and so I think the the point that you're really trying to drive home is

there are some people who just will include most things into their portfolio because they want a diversified portfolio across all different asset classes all different Investments and so if we have a certain number of boxes checked which are big Brands like perhaps Black Rock uh low fees like perhaps you know 20 bips 0.15 percentage points all the low fees that we see here uh and then also a high number of trading volumes which we are definitely seeing you're saying that this checks a lot of boxes for potential uh uh investors portfolios uh and so it almost puts the bearer of investment of the bearer the burden of proof onto the bearer rather than in the bulll is that kind of what you're

saying yeah I would say so um again um this reminds me the Bitcoin launch like I I see launches all the time there's two ETFs launch every day in America and about six globally uh it's weird for them you know if one trades over a million dollars on day one it's like o that's interesting um you notice that right so if you have a list list of of some that are trading well over 10 million it's w it's weird it's completely abnormal so it's just a little bit in the shadow of Bitcoin so all this stuff is relativity here but this is a this is in the end you're

looking at the second biggest launch ever probably second biggest launch ever yeah I would say so I mean there's a couple caveats to that but largely speaking and these are all organic numbers I I want to see the flows after a couple weeks to start comparing it but it's right up there we're talking top 1% launches top 1% launches we we already know that that Bitcoin is on a trajectory to just demolish the bit the gold ETF record I think it already has in its early days and every single day it continues Bitcoin continues to beat gold volume records and Bitcoin if I'm if I'm uh understanding correctly is the number one ETF launch in terms of all like plausible metrics and you're saying

ether is coming in at number two is that true do we need to qualify that how true how true is that sorry one more time is eth the number two if Bitcoin is the number one ETF launch of all time passing surpassing gold is eth number two and if it's not like how do we need to qualify that or is it straight up just number two um well you know I we have to see what happens uh gold traded over a billion on day one and that that was back when a billion was like not as bigger deal yeah yeah a bigger deal um but there's a couple caveats here let's say there was only one ether ETF right there was only one gold ETF so it had

the whole thing to itself well you're looking at potentially a billion if it was only one you know let's say eth converted that's a weird the whole thing's a little weird because of e eth but you're looking at a billion in the group again GLD traded a billion on day one and that was the record for a long time until Bitcoin came along so it the group thing makes it a little weird but let's just see how it plays out in the next days my guess is if we look at ETF the fastest ETFs to say um a billion or five billion or 10 billion uh one or two of these will be in the top 10 top 20 do you know what I mean um again the problem is nothing's going to really knock off ibit I I think ibit is gonna

hold a lot of those records and uh Etha won't won't catch ibit but it'll it'll be in the mix so um yeah say as a group you're looking at it tied gold Eric you I remember you there's one copy out there sure I will say gold took in a billion in flows the first day sorry so these will not do that but the the the billion in volume is going to be again right up there with any launch we've ever seen now again the next couple days it'll be interesting to see how much comes in as as cash and where we are after say a week or so do you have um uh any indication as to like the speed of grayscale outflows as it

relates to the Bitcoin um uh grayscale ETF outflows I think if I remember correctly we all kind of got caught by surprise uh when the Bitcoin ETFs launched because both we were caught by surprise because there was so much demand but then there was also so much outflows out of grayscale both things caught us by surprise do we have any sort of indication as like the um speed of the eth E outflows out of grayscale do you think that will happen faster do you think will happen slower or do you have any data about that whatsoever hard to tell I will say that the grayscale uh gbtc traded like two billion or over two billion on the first day um and that was a lot for the market to stomach right remember the first couple weeks of that thing were brutal um 458 isn't that bad

but the Market's smaller So proportionally speaking 458 would be about 20 23% of gbtc volume so I guess if we're going to proportional eyesee it uh this will be a much smaller unlock but maybe percentagewise the same if you know what I mean so if this thing sees like 50 million of outflows that would be the equivalent of like 250 million day for gbtc right so we have to sort of like I think we almost have to like divide everything by five um is that right divide by yeah or multiply by 1 what whatever you want to do I think we sort

of have to like do that thing to get answer it looks like it's going to be the similar in in a parallel universe but the numbers will all be smaller right yeah right right right uh Eric I remember after the Bitcoin ETFs and as we get into the eth ETF season uh you were talking about the the liner the one liner for explaining ether uh ether has always had a harder story to tell uh Wall Street trafi about like why people should be interested in it uh and I want to get your perspective on that uh but first before we get to all that conversation and a few other things I want to talk to you about we got to talk to uh our sponsors that make this show possible so we we'll be right back uh with some of these other topics if you

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tweet from you um yesterday Eric saying here's black Rock's ether pitch to normies Via J Jacob while many see bitcoin's appeal in its scarcity many find ethereum's appeal and its utility you can think of ethereum as a global platform for applications that run without decentralized intermediaries uh this is just the Black Rock pitch so this is this is the Black Rock uh uh marketing material to their customers but also we are seeing bitwise uh the websites the Black Rock websites the Fidelity websites uh all kind of popping up trying to sell The Ether ETF and I'm wondering Eric you you've kind of been watching this journey of the ethereum community myself and Ryan included try to really figure out how to sell ether

is there anything you've any like knowledge that you've you've gained either today or in the last like month or so about uh Wall Street appetite Wall Street interest or just the marketing narrative for ether the asset yeah um so it's interesting you know I feel as though one of the strongest ways to sell Bitcoin is as digital gold but why do you want gold anyway you want gold to store value why do you want that well the dollar is getting devalued by government so the Bitcoin is to protect you from your government devaluing the dollar that's that's the pitch I would take a parallel which is that uh you know how the two or three tech companies seem to run the the

internet and can like completely like take you out whenever they want this is a internet that nobody can do that on that that's sort of in my opinion the problem or the worry that a normal person would have I don't think anybody's comfortable that like Amazon and like two other tech companies like can just do whatever they want on the web it's uh it is centralized and it be scary there's a little or Welling factor that I think most people that makes them nervous ether is something and I'd even go the guy who came up with it uh his story of like not liking his freedom taken away from in this video game hey look I'm G to I'm going to do something where that can't

happen um that's an understandable business people all business all the time are start off with somebody's pissed off about a current state of things and they like I want to do it a better way it's a perfect capitalist story and here you have really smart people developing these this new way of doing it and ether is the gasoline that you have to buy to do the apps and stuff so I like that story and the fact that it's a little more of a Tech play um a there's more like it's a little more like a tech stock whereas Bitcoin is truly like gold um but I I do find that one thing I haven't seen any bring up yet is this idea of hey does it

worry you that like a couple companies have so much power a couple tech companies they're um getting bigger and bigger um I that's my one thing otherwise you're just going to sell on hey don't miss out on this thing that you don't understand and that's a little weaker I I think you have to really go through I'd even like when I explain ETFs to people and I'm like why they work so well I go to the story of the guy who invented the ETF and what problem he was trying to solve he was third in exchange trading he was American Stock Exchange was lagging NASDAQ and NY and they wanted that no no stocks would list there so like we'll f it we'll we'll make our own thing that's really cool and people want to trade and they invented a basket of the S&P 500

and it was and it worked they they got they were able to it was a uh invention is the mother of NE no wait necessity is the mother of invention so they were kind of uh forced to do this and then I go over where they got the idea for the design and the Paradigm they used I know in Bitcoin one thing that worked with me is the military background that the system was based on and in the Cold War again I never hear I was like that's really cool I would again I would go through the actual story instead of just it's this thing over here and because I think people can't even conceptualize how do I

even get to it what where does it live what does it do I would almost like do a little more storytelling if I were trying to explain this to somebody um you know and that's normally you have to read a book to get all that but I you know iar is doing their best here but that'd be one thing I would uh recommend yeah I think people are going back and forth on the tech platform angle some are seeing that as uh the more interesting aspect for Wall Street investors because Tech is generally associated with very high returns that's been the sector of investment over the last 10 plus years or so that has outperformed most other things uh but then others are saying like well Tech is also undifferentiated because you know with Bitcoin you know there's only one

gold on the internet but you know there can be many tech tech platforms do you have a take between these two takes um there could be me many Tech Platforms in other words wait ether would not be the only one yeah there like ethereum is not the only smart contract platform that exists on the crypto space yeah yeah um yeah I mean that's that's definitely a little bit of a challenge I think also the idea that people people wanted to make something that was faster you know Bitcoin is very secure but it's not fast right it it it it doesn't it it doesn't want to be fast so I would ALS maybe play with the idea that this is a a way

to use the blockchain technology for Speed um and that you don't get that at Bitcoin you know Bitcoin is security this is more utility and speed am I right I'm not I'm novice at this stuff so I'd almost turn it over to you on whether that's too simple but you are right there would be now competitors to Ether for sure down the road but you got a good head start on them I think and you got a bigger market cap so one thing I I'm interested to see is um the Su of the surface area between the cross-pollination of black Rock's products specifically uh so you have black rock trying to promote their buildo fund their tokenized treasuries on ethereum and now they also have an

ethereum ETF which means ethereum has two products that has has been able to create for Black Rock and hearing Larry thinkink talk about tokenization and identity I kind of think that there is going to be more than just a handful of ethereum based products that black rock going to be able to serve uh and all of a sudden when like more than a handful of uh products come out of black rock all based on ethereum uh all of a sudden I think maybe that starts to really fill in gaps of what investors understand what ethereum can be I I would agree with that um that said I'm a little more be tokenization than than most people I I feel as though you like the eation the

securitization not the tokenization I don't know maybe it's like just the words we're using but I don't know if there's a it's going to be difficult for tokenization to disrupt ETFs now there are places ETFs can't go where tokens I think would be a great solution but the ETF is a mutual fund regulate the highest regulatory standards I don't even know how you get a token through that that law it'd be difficult and now with an ETF they're they're fast good and cheap I mean that you can get almost anything now with a click of a button it's very convenient there's no friction and there's almost no cost it's it's very difficult to disrupt you like trying to disrupt

disrupt Amazon as a startup it's going to be very difficult but I'm keeping my mind open but certainly if Black Rock starts do doing things like money market funds which are not that they're a little clunkier than an ETF if they can tokenize a couple things here and there um yeah I think that would help ether's case because it shows it in practice one last question I got for you Eric Before I Let You Go uh we have a lot of the same contenders here with the eth ETFs that we have and the Bitcoin ETFs in fact I think it's the same set of players uh one thing I'm keeping my eye on is um bit wise's market share of the eth ETF as it compares to their market share of the Bitcoin ETF and if you've been paying attention to kind of like the inside baseball in the in the

crypto space um Fidelity are known as these bitcoiners the Fidelity people are bitcoiners uh and the bitwise people tend to be a little bit more ethereum ethereum aligned uh they are much more into some of the onchain ethereum products uh Fidelity uh was got into crypto I think even before ethereum was even a thing and one thing I've noticed is that the bitwise share of the E of the ethereum volumes is higher proportionally to what it was with the Bitcoin ETFs I'm wondering if you've picked up on any differences in the shakeups on the winners of the Bitcoin ETFs versus the winners of the eth ETFs yeah I mean I I I would say that um arc Arc not being part of 21 shares I don't

it seemed to hurt it a little bit because Arc was in the top three it was like tied with bitwise for third place that's a little unusual I 21 21 shares is largely a European company so I think Arc gave them like a US face here a little more but I have no doubt they'll get some share um that's one noticeable thing bitwise always outperforming you know this is an indie small company they don't really have any business being nestled between Fidelity and gray scale uh good for them um and vanc Franklin about where I thought you know so and you know Fidelity has always been like a strong second uh especially in the Bitcoin race they now have 10 billion in flows

whereas ibid is about to hit 20 billion but then there's a next the drop off to three billion so I would see it looks like we're going to be headed to the same place where you're going to have ey shares say at let's say hypothetical five billion Fidelity at 2.5 billion and then maybe like a couple at 800 million I I could see a world where it's like that um it looks like it's shaping up there's one day but we'll see um but Fidelity has something Black Rock doesn't even have which is a massive Army of advisors right so once they you know get into something or want to put it in their model or their clients models it's like they can just get a lot

of money just like that like they are it's a captive audience to a degree for them black rock doesn't even have that although they have models for other things but um is powerful well Eric we're at the end of the trading day like I've said 5:00 pm time to to wrap up the work day for us on the on the East Coast I appreciate you coming on the show give us a little sneak peek of your life as you are paying attention to the eth ETFs uh up until the remainder of this week and also for next week what are the what are the things you're looking at what are the places you're going to get information um what are the conversations that are going around this space that you're paying attention to overall just give us a sneak peek of your of your eth ETF related life as

this week draws to a close well I'll be watching the the flows in the in the assets this week see where we're at um and then the second day volume Third Day volume volume tends to drop off will these have a little lift the Bitcoin ETFs actually had a little lift um and then will they have a second win like in week two or three or will they just have this big launch day and then slowly trickle off uh we'll see the other thing I'm looking for is just um you know how the messaging plays out I saw bit wises attempt at it I saw black rocks you know e to me it's potentially has more angles you can approach it from so I'll be interested to see the marketing and how that is different by issuer um again this is such a interesting case study

for analyst because you've got all these launching on the same day so you sort of have a lot of variables removed and you can sort of then isolate things like fees but all the fees are the same so then you know it really comes down to marketing and hustle and size and so it helps us get some knowledge for like what works in the ETF Market overall so uh like I said this is um it's small relative to the whole size of the ETF Market but is a very useful case study for an analyst to monitor so we will look at all angles of it well Eric it's been great for have you and James's commentary both with the Bitcoin ETFs and now the eth ETFs um when do you think we'll have you back on uh I'm kind of sad that this is over because now we

have these two main products that are out and live we have over 70% % of the total crypto market cap represented on Wall Street in these ETF formats uh where do you think our relationship with the Bloomberg ETF boys goes well we're available you know we'll uh I would say maybe check back in in two or three weeks then we we can really pick apart the flows and the assets and the grayscale unlock and what all what All Shook out it this this will take a couple days if not a couple weeks to really see like okay what the hell happened well Eric thanks again for coming on uh you guys heard it from Eric we got a solid a of the eth ETF launch no Small Potatoes that right

Eric I remember I take that phrase back it it was too dismissive um that said I we you know we were kind of right this would be a a smaller you know a fifth of what the Bitcoin ETF but Small Potatoes is not it's not my style to be that dismissive it was the bad choice of words and I remind of that almost every day I'm sure you are as crypto Twitter will always do if you say something that they do not like Eric thanks so much for coming on the show thank you for having me talk to you later bye bankl Nation you guys know the deal crypto is risky whether it's on chain or in Wall Street you know the deal uh you can lose what you put in but we are headed west even though the ETFs are something fantastic

to celebrate it's a milestone of the industry it's a mark of maturity for us all it's something that is required for our number to go up but nonetheless I prefer my ether on chain I prefer my ether in my wallet uh so I'll celebrate this but I will still be uh self- Sovereign and I'll still be bankless so thank you for joining us here today on the uh the bank station cheers new projects are coming online to the mantle layer 2 every single week why is this happening maybe it's because mantle has been on the frontier of layer 2 design architecture since it first started building mantle da powered by technology from Igan da maybe it's because users are coming onto the mantle layer 2 to capture some of the highest yields available in Defi and to automatically receive the points and tokens being

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