Did Saylor trigger the selloff? Bitcoin, ETF outflows and AI as a store of value

Transcript

When stocks go up, Bitcoin goes down a little bit. When stocks go down, Bitcoin goes down a lot. [laughter] That's the world we live in. Unfortunately, on days like today, it's a good idea to remember that Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom. So, just because you're frustrated doesn't mean it's actually over. Hello and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the podcast that wonders if all of this is just an elaborate plan for Michael Sailor to get all the Bitcoin. [laughter] I'm your host, John Gillan. Today is Thursday, June 4th, and today we are back with another episode of the Milk Road Pro analyst crypto research meeting. Once a week, we huddle up to discuss what's up in crypto. I always learn a lot from these conversations. I think our audience likes them a lot, too. So, if that sounds good to you,

make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. Today's episode is brought to you by Cape, the privacy first mobile carrier, Nexo, earn interest, borrow and trade crypto, and Koshi, where your takes finally pay out. And without further ado, welcome back to another meeting. Gentlemen, how are we feeling? Is read on the charts all over the place today. >> You know that Bitcoin also doesn't have a floor. [laughter] >> That's what we're trying to find out right now. I think >> we're doing some live market research on that. >> But it's funny you say that about Sailor because I actually I don't know why, but I woke up this morning, my first thought was imagine that he's faking out the market by doing that 32 Bitcoin sell and just trying to buy it like way lower.

Now, he likes to buy at the very peak in the top, so it's probably not his plan. But I don't know why, but that was just the first thing I thought of this morning. >> Yeah, I think I think there's a non-zero chance. He was like, you know, if I sell like a couple Bitcoin here, I could buy many many more Bitcoin uh much cheaper. Martin, how are you feeling today? Just as a sentiment check, what what's your sentiment on the vibes, on the market, on crypto, on Bitcoin? How are you feeling, >> man? I'm so excited. I was calling for the pullback for for for the beats now. And yeah, I'm happy. I have enough cash. So I'm happy to see what's going on. I hope it's not just you know one day one day or two days correction. I know I hope that we are gonna lower much lower

>> much lower. Okay. Well so maybe this is where we should start then. Where is the bottom? What bottom are you looking for? Um and when do you get interested on this? Either of you have thoughts on that right now. >> Well it depends if we are talking about Bitcoin or if we are talking about the rest of crypto or if you are talking about S&P 500. So, um I think crypto was beaten down quite badly over the last few months and yet I think there is still a lot of room to to fall further. Um where is the bottom for Bitcoin? I don't really know but you know we have built internally Bitcoin demand index and once I see that there are people interested in and buying Bitcoin again uh until then I'm not interested either

and for the rest of the market like I would like to see you know US indices correction for like let's say at least 5% or something and then you know maybe some AI stocks might get repriced and some attractive levels again and for the rest of the crypto I think you know hype is down badly today but I think it will it will be fine um some correction was also inevit tool because the the recent price performance was just crazy again as I said yesterday during our AMA I am what I'm looking at right now is how the market's feedback is going to be about this pullback and you know what are all the doomers going to say

>> uh yeah so I think Bitcoin's going go lower only because um I think over last night it went down to what 61,39 and the problem was not a ton of volume to back that up and almost never does Bitcoin bottom unless it has a huge volume spike in the chart and it did not get that yesterday. Uh and so the only way we can get that is if it goes even lower. Uh and so and we're already at 61. So it's it's definitely going to break through its previous well I think it's going to break through its previous low which was uh what was it? 60. Yeah, 60,000 bang on pretty much. So, yeah, I don't know how long that'll take to pan out, but I do think we're going to go lower. Probably it happens, you know, this week, I would assume. Uh it doesn't

look like there's much strength uh where we're currently at. Um and then I think uh you know, why is it happening? I think you know, still risk in in the war not ending. Uh price of oil still kind of unknown. Looks like this. I mean, the stock market's also super red right now. So maybe Bitcoin was just kind of like front running. uh the fear in the market. Obviously, we have a a a rate hike priced in uh this year now instead of uh the opposite. Uh so I just think, you know, macro is a little bit dicey and and maybe the market's kind of thinking that and so they're selling off. Obviously, sailor selling 32 bitcoin didn't help. Uh I think that probably made this even exaggerated even further for Bitcoin. So, it's kind of maybe speeding things up, but like I don't think selling 32 Bitcoin was that

big of a deal. The guy owns I don't know 850,000 of it. So, uh, it's not that big of a deal. We'll see if he continues to buy, like if he continues to sell, sorry, or if he ends up buying this week. I think that's going to be a big question. The market's going to really want to understand that. So, >> do you think also psychological >> Oh, sorry. Yeah, go ahead. >> Yeah, I was just going to say in terms of psychological, I think stretch is down at I didn't look what the price is, but I know it's it's well below its $100 par uh that it's supposed to be at. So, um that could be another thing that's kind of scaring the market. What is the outlook?

>> I think I think it's a closable gap. It's not like catastrophic because it's done this before. But I I do think that like the psychological impact and the sentiment impact from him selling even just a little bit Bitcoin has kind of like really tested the resolve of a lot of investors and you know it's just it's in a bare market, right? So it's the sentiment was already pretty bad. Um so I think that there's been like a much bigger impact than he was even expecting probably. And I do think it was a good thing for him to kind of shake that off. It's like the market, we needed to get this at some point because like the goal of I think the thing that most people are getting wrong about this cuz he's getting absolutely ridiculed on Twitter right now. And I think his goal is to

improve the Bitcoin per share of Micro Strategy, right? Like that's that's his entire goal. He said it all along. And sometimes to do that, you need to also sell Bitcoin, which like I think for some people it's like I don't understand it. But because he has other products like Stretch which also acquire Bitcoin to improve his Bitcoin per share, sometimes you can sell Bitcoin at certain times and then buy Bitcoin at certain times and as a result that allows you to make more Bitcoin per the share price of of MSTR. Uh and so that's ultimately his goal and that's what he's trying to do. So um I think he needed to do this one just and this is why he did 32 bitcoin didn't make any difference in his business whatsoever. Uh it's $2.5 million. Who cares? It was more just like, "Hey market, I am going to sell at

some point and it's not a bad deal, so I'm just gonna do it." And uh he I think he knew this was going to happen. My guess, my hope, but also my guess is that he's going to buy a bunch right now because he knew that this was going to happen. Um and he kind of did it to just signal the market, hey, I'm going to also sell sometimes and that's okay. So, we'll see. We'll see what happens. But, um either way, I still think we're going to go lower. >> So, you are saying that Sailor is the reason why the market is dipping today? >> No. No. I think it's macro and like other things. I just think that exaggerated it, right? Like Bitcoin went down way harder than like a lot of like even more than ETH for a little bit there. I think ETH puked last night. So

maybe now ETH is down more. I'm not sure, but there was a little bit there where it looked like, you know, Bitcoin dominance was going down while, you know, Bitcoin was going down. That doesn't happen very often. I think that was just an accelerator or exaggerated move because of saleing. Um now it looks like the rest of crypto is catching up. like hype's down like 10%. Uh this morning. So guys, listen. We are at a very crucial point in time right now. AI stocks have ripped. They're going to keep ripping. Our analysts on the AI side are up like literally 100% or more on quite a few calls. And crypto is about to boom again, or at least it feels that way. If you want all the insight on what we're buying, what our analysts are doing, what's on their watch list, all of that is in Milkroad

Pro. So join at the link below. The US Secretary of the Treasury said this week that the Treasury Department is working with quote all deliberate speed towards a national Bitcoin strategic reserve. This has been teased for months and months here. Do you see that as a potential positive catalyst to sort of like rebolster strengthen the market or do you see anything that [laughter] might get people interested in Bitcoin or crypto again that's like on the near horizon that that there might be some opium here uh in the short term? I mean, if they come up with some incredible thing, but I don't think they're go every time they announce anything about Bitcoin, it's always everyone's like, "Oh, that was way worse than what we thought." So, uh, and then I think Jordy Vistister always talks about this. He's like the the administration is very, um,

they don't keep a lot of secrets. And so, whenever something they're going to do is going to happen, there's a lot of people that get into the trade before it happens. And that's obviously not happening with Bitcoin. So, I can only imagine that they are not doing anything that crazy. But I mean, if they did do something really cool and somehow kept it a secret, sure, that would be nice. But I don't know. I think we'd rather just the government can stay away from it. We haven't done a lot of help. >> I don't see any catalyst to be honest for Bitcoin in the next few months. I think again all the markets are just, you know, a market for capital and attention and that's right now in AI and it's soon going to be in IPOs. And so like what makes Bitcoin attractive? why

I should be bidding Bitcoin here instead of you know waiting for IPOs or just buying I don't know micron or some of AI trades. >> Yeah. >> So I mean Sailor said this morning if you look he tweeted out he said capital markets are funding the AI build at a historic scale 400 billion over 6 months. Bitcoin ETFs have seen 4 billion of outflows since May 14th pressuring Bitcoin. This is a capital rotation not a Bitcoin impairment. And he says volatility creates opportunity. But I mean I I said this uh on the AI show yesterday or two days ago, whatever it was, which is there is a new store of value in town and it is compute. It is not Bitcoin. And corporations understand that and they are buying it because not only is it a scarce asset, but it's a

productive asset. I can buy compute and I can make my business worth a lot more or I can rent out that compute. I can monetize that compute and also store my value in it. And that's what, you know, every hyperscaler in the world is doing. Google's selling $80 billion of their stock to go buy more of this stuff. SpaceX, Enthropic, and OpenAI are about to IPO and raise, you know, hundred billion dollars each to go buy more compute. Uh, and it's because it's a scarce and productive asset, whereas Bitcoin is just a scarce asset. Um, and so I think, uh, Bitcoin's kind of losing the store value race right now. I don't think that that happens forever. At some point, you know, Bitcoin will become the deacto store value thing again. I just uh it's hard to see that happening when there's just so much demand for compute.

>> Okay. So, this is a question I've been having myself, which is that what you guys are describing is like the long-term thesis on Bitcoin maybe still holds, but all the attention in capital is elsewhere. Do you have a plan in mind for an accumulation strategy? Is that something you think about later this summer? Is this something you're starting to get curious about now? Or like how are you thinking about getting into this asset at this like fire sale opportunity here? I I'm not really thinking about getting into it. I think if it goes down into like the low 50s, I would buy some more. Um, which I actually now I do think it's going to get there. Um, I'm more trying to figure out how can I get more capital into AI stocks and the AI infrastructure buildout where it's not too overbought.

So, I'm I'm more eyeing um the pullback in stocks than I am the pullback in Bitcoin to be completely honest. Now, that's because I like I have a long-term bag of Bitcoin that I've held since 2020, and it just sits there and it's like I don't really care if I have more. Um I don't really care to sell it. It just kind of sits there. So, I'm just not really bothered, but I'm also not really trying to accumulate a ton more. Um if it went really low, then maybe I would, but I don't have like a a real strategy, I would say. I don't know. Martin, are you eyeing it up or is there a strategy you have? >> I have sort of similar view. I think I I just want to make sure that my portfolio is diversified so I'm not like all in

crypto like I was a year ago. Uh it was a huge mistake obviously. Um but yeah, like I think if Bitcoin really goes into low 50s, it's it's going to get oversold and like I'm not going to be a crazy buyer there, but I I might add some Bitcoin for sure. >> And it's not just sailor that sold, right? you had like Pomp's uh Pro Share Pro Cap or whatever it's called. Um they sold again this is not large amounts like 300 I think was it Marathon or or Hive I don't know one of the other um like accumulators of Bitcoin also sold some. So I saw at least three of these like treasury companies that sold

Bitcoin basically all last week. I don't know if they like all plan to do that or what. Um but uh you know it's there's a there's a trend here I guess. So we'll see if that continues. So, a lot of people have been talking about this dispersion that while Bitcoin was going down, Bitcoin dominance was also going down. Some of these other alts had been holding up. Um, and then we got an announcement this morning that Arthur Hayes had sold his hype and his near position and that that narrative kind of changed quickly. We got corrections in those as well. Are you looking at other alts? This is question for both of you guys. Let's start with Martin. Are you looking at other alts in the space right now and getting curious or interested in those things like hype, perpetuals, uh, or anything in this this privacy

narrative? Is there anything else outside of Bitcoin that you're curious about here? >> Actually, I I was selling hype all the way up. So, I'm now like 40 50% out of my hype position. And I think it was right call. Now I'm I'm happy. I'm almost risk- free position. So, I I don't want to say I don't really care, but you know, it's a it's a risk risk trade for me right now. Um but besides hype, I know that there is a lot uh hype going on around um Zcash and Near and those kind of I call them narratives coins because it it's all about just narrative, right?

It's there's nothing else really. So I I know that Arthurheis and some other big names are, you know, I feel like they're buying then they they start shilling and then they'll just uh sell. Uh so it's it's sort of u I don't I don't like that kind of behavior of those people and who are just shilling something and they know that some people are going to buy their bags and then they are just you know sell that use them as exit liquidity. But I think like hype is certainly a a great project. I think what is happening in crypto is that the whole industry is getting a big re reset and like you really need to focus on like why the token should be valued at

the current valuation or not. So hype or sky those are you know those are real businesses they have real products and make real money. But I would say like 95% of the rest of the crypto is is not doing that. So it's it's it's driven by that speculation in narrative and that's something that I don't want to buy and invest and because I I have no edge there. I don't know how to manage those positions. Uh so yeah, I'm probably not gonna add my crypto to my portfolio anytime soon unless I see some some big uh uh change in the sentiment. I I do

think we are starting to see a bit of a like separation or dispersion in in assets in crypto which we should and I think the reason for that is there are a few really good protocols that you know have found product market fit that their revenues and their volumes and things don't rely on the price of digital assets. Um, and so they can continue to generate revenue even if ETH and Bitcoin are doing poorly. And historically, everything we've ever built in crypto and all DeFi and everything we've done has all been centered around the price of Bitcoin and ETH must go up andor the volume of trading of Bitcoin and ETH must go up otherwise these things don't

make money. Right? All of DeFi was built on the backs of Bitcoin and ETH and rehypothecated ETH or Soul if you're in the Salana ecosystem. And so everything went up and down together because you know Bitcoin, ETH and Soul are just a proxy of each other. And if they go up then the DeFi products that use their those assets their revenues go up and if it goes down the same thing, right? And finally we have a few assets and this is why I think Hyperlid actually will continue to do well here. Um, and even if Bitcoin, you know, goes into this like, you know, continues to struggle for the next whatever three, six months, I actually don't think Hyperlid will because Hyperlid generates revenues from oil and from silver and from the S&P and from the NASDAQ and from Micron, from

the AI trade, right? It's like it's found a way to productize things outside of the crypto ecosystem, even though it is part of the the crypto ecosystem. Uh, same with Sky, same with USDA, there's there's a few others that are doing this. Uh, you know, prediction markets, right? like they profit off of political events and sporting events, etc. They don't profit only off of the price of Bitcoin. And so those should kind of separate themselves and disconnect from the price of Bitcoin and ETH. And so obviously not all of them will and not all of them will continue to do well, but I think those are the assets that I'd be looking at to to hopefully they get crushed along with Bitcoin and ETH, but then they can find their way out because like even if you look at the last um two days, Hyperlid's at its like

highest revenues it's had in months, right? Uh now part of that's obviously because of liquidations and things from from Bitcoin, but um there's just a lot more you can do in hyperlquid and so um I don't know that's means their buybacks and their revenues are increasing even though the price of Bitcoin is going down. So that's a that's a good thing. That's what you want to see. The way we build wealth is changing. [music] Stocks, savings accounts, real estate, that playbook is getting rewritten in real time. Nexo is the platform built for what's next. It's an all-in-one digital wealth [music] platform where you can earn interest on your crypto, borrow against it without selling, and trade a wide range of assets, all in one place with 24/7 support and institutional grade security. Oh, and by the way, [music] Nexo is back in the US with new US clients getting 30 days of

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deleted after 24 hours. You get two [music] encrypted secondary numbers for signups and 2FA included in your plan. Plus, SIM swap protection that puts [music] you in control of your number, so no one, not even Cape, can hijack it. Use code milkroad at milkroad.com/cape for 33% [music] off your first 6 months. >> Martin, I want to ask you a question about this. You know, Kyle talked about the things you can do on Hyperlquid. One of the things you can do on Hyperlquid is trade uh preo shares of a lot of these AI hyperscalers, things like SpaceX. There's uh reports out, you know, the details of this may escape me, but we now can get um exposure to SpaceX on Coinbase, and I know you've been bullish on Coinbase for a long time.

Does that change your thesis on Coinbase? Are you excited about getting into some crypto stocks uh at this point maybe as opposed to digital assets themselves? What's your outlook on that? >> Yeah, I think two points. One is that what PERBs are doing pretty well is that they provide access to US stocks to the whole world. Uh so you can just go and you know uh buy whatever stocks you want on hyperlquid. They they've listed over hundreds of stocks so you'll be fine. And the second thing is that what pushed prices of hyperlquid much higher was that CFTC finally made a clear regulation for perpetuals though it only involves um CFTC registered exchanges

like Coinbase. So it doesn't include hyperlquid but I get it it validates their thesis that perpetuals are big thing but I think for hyperlquid they actually lost a certain type of users that might potentially use hyperlquid because right now they can just stay on Coinbase and trade you know uh the biggest event that's coming in the next few weeks is uh SpaceX IPO and now actually today Coinbase is launching uh SpaceX uh perpetuals on their exchange.

So everyone that has Coinbase account can now get access to SpaceX IPO before it really happens because it's just perpetual contract. So yeah, I think it validates the thesis of Hyperlquid that perpetuals are, you know, a great thing and like people want it. People love their products because perpetuals are like much more simpler than options. And but now I I think Coinbase is going to eat some of their lunch and I think Robin Hood and other apps are going to launch, you know, perpetules as well.

>> Yeah. But the only thing is like I think there's a place for both of them, right? Uh, Hyperliquid can serve the entire world. Hyperlid can't even serve the US right now. It's literally blocked. Same with in Ontario where I am. Uh, and so, um, Coinbase can, uh, whereas Hyperliquid can't, but then Hyperlid can service the rest of the world, whereas Coinbase is not really in the rest of the world right now. So, they, you know, I think, um, they're kind of growing the pie of like like Perpetuals is growing as a pie, right? And so, I think they're both growing. Um, but yes, Coinbase will eat some of that chair. But also, Hyperloop can move a lot faster because it's not regulated, right? It doesn't fit in the regulations of the US and so they can do more things uh and different things and act a lot faster than

something like Coinbase can. So, I think that's their edge that they continue to have even though the big boys are coming into the market. So, I actually think it's just b perpetuals in general getting adoption is bullish for both the exchanges Robin Hood and Coinbase and for your hyperlids or lighters. Um, so it's just a good thing in general. >> Yeah. Okay. So, the the Pi is growing. This is good for all players and it's a big enough market to where there's there's need for a lot of different providers here. Uh, I want to pivot to something. >> Let me just before we pivot, just one thing. Don't forget the better the bigger Hyperlid gets, uh, the more revenues Coinbase also makes because Coinbase uh, owns all the USDC and their treasury and generates all the revenue from that. So, Coinbase has their hands tied into basically everything that is

anything going on in this space. Somebody needs to buy something. >> Some rumors that Coinbase joins with some other big names to launch some new stable coin. >> No, I haven't seen that. Who's What's this? >> Well, that would make sense. Is it Is it a new stable coin or is it a different Is it a new name of a stable coin with USC underneath? Because they have a stable coin as a service product. >> I don't know. I I just saw that there are rumors that Coinbase with some big banks are in in talks to launch a new stable coin. I think it's, you know, I I feel like couple weeks ago we were discussing that what is circle doing? It seems like they are right now fighting with Coinbase or like at least fighting for the same kind of users and yeah, if

these rumors are true, uh we got a resolution, right? So, Coinbase is just okay, we are going to launch our own stable coin and with like big partners and let's see who's going to win this this war, >> right? I see the Stripe V or Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase are reportedly partnering on a new stable coin platform. But then I also see another tweet that says a new stable coin. So, I don't know which one it is, but uh I mean it makes sense. Coinbase is trying to get their hands in absolutely everything, right? Like if you're going to if anything's getting tokenized, if anything's getting put on a blockchain by any institution, Coinbase wants to be there. Um they're doing a hell of a job at it, which is why like if I'm bullish on anything in crypto, it's still Coinbase. Uh, I know

it has not performed well in the last little while. Uh, that's okay. I bought Coinbase at 35 bucks, so I'm fine where it is today. Uh, but I would say like at 165 or whatever is now is is still an amazing opportunity. So, if there's one thing I'm looking at buying, it would be Coinbase. Now, I own a lot of it, so I'm not going to buy any more of it right now. But, if you don't own any of it, it's a great entry point in my opinion. >> I love that answer. Like, I'm looking at buying this thing that I'm not going to buy because I have a lot of it. But, if I was going to buy it, I would buy it because I've already done it. Um, that's [laughter] that's great insight. But no, I agree. I think this is something that

people are missing. There's there's there's still tons of value in the digital asset ecosystem. There's a lot of of of great businesses here. Um, and just because the sentiment feels terrible right now doesn't mean that that's all going to zero either. Um, the thing I was going to bring up was uh was Tom Lee, [laughter] who I just think may have the most legendarily bad timing of anybody I've seen in crypto. like on the same day that Stretch is like causing people to freak out about Bitcoin, he announced that he's going to be launching a uh a preferred product similar to Stretch that's offering 9 and a half% interest. I think the difference here from where I'm sitting is that he is uh he's make generating I think somewhere around uh $500 million of staking yield a year. So he can fund fully fund this product with

like 10% of his staking yield without having to sell any Ethereum which sort of validates his thesis that Ethereum might be a better treasury asset for a digital asset treasury company. What are your guys? >> He would need to he would need to sell ETH though. He'd have to sell staking yield, >> right? >> Sure. But he wouldn't have to sell his principle. But I hear where you're coming from. Yeah. But what do you think about this product and the timing of the launch of the product? [laughter] I mean, I think on the show a month ago or however long it was, I we talked about this and we said he's probably going to launch this or at least he should launch this and I think he can it can be a better product because of that, you know, 3% or whatever it is yield

that you can get on ETH right now. So, um I think it's a smart move. I think it's a terrible timing as you mentioned like just you couldn't have chosen a worse day though. I think they just filed, right? He didn't launch it yet. He didn't it's not like they they came out with some big announcement. they just filed, which then gets public. Um, and it's not like he was going to delay filing because he wants this to happen sooner than later. So, but yeah, hilarious. But yeah, I mean, I don't know. Like, I don't think Stretch is going to Everyone's comparing Stretch to Ter Luna right now on Twitter. Um, and I don't think it's going to happen. I think it'll come back to par like it's done many times before. It's at $96 or $97 right now. Um, it's gone worse than that already this year multiple times.

So, like I don't know why everyone's completely freaking out. So, I don't I don't think the stretch and sailor situation is as bad as people think it is, which means that I think what Tom Lee is going to do here is probably a net positive thing for Bitine and for ETH. Um, but we'll see. It's still kind of early days for Stretch. So, um, you know, would be crazy if that thing blew up and all of a sudden Tom Lee enters the market, >> but it assumes the the current ETH prices, right? So the the road map or like the runway might you know heighten when the prices keep going down. So I think it's kind of surprising that he's

able he's trying to raise more money uh while offering a lower yield than Bitcoin despite that like yes ETH is a productive asset and Bitcoin is not but what are the chances that Bitcoin is not going to be here in 10 years and what are the odds that ETH is not going to be here in 10 years? I mean like Bitcoin is it's it's already past that inflection point. It's it's here. It's here to stay and like you know right now the prices are going down but like I'm pretty sure that the prices of Bitcoin are going to be much much higher in 5 to 10 years. For ETH though I know that John is very bullish on ETH but that picture that story is getting

more blurry I think and it's not that obvious that ETH is going to be much much higher in five years. like the the potential is there but is the execution there and is it going to be reflected in the price of that asset like there are a couple questions actually John has >> what do you is this David Hoffman to [laughter] show or is this going on >> I I think that that Martin's opinion has become quite popular um I think that's also driven by sentiment and and some of the like just the vibes in the market right now and the price action that we've seen but I do think that the fundamentals are are still really strong on Ethereum and as we see tokenization continue to accelerate and uh the adoption of stable coins the rise of the

agentic economy I think that Ethereum's value proposition uh continues to grow and prove itself and allows them to continue to gain market share as these assets come on chain the other thing I think is that uh a lot of the the the the contest the competition the frustration here is that a lot of L2s or other things are extracting value from Ethereum and this is just like a matter of monetary policy right? Like putting in dynamic rebalancing of fees from the L L2s, pulling that back to the L1's. That's something that's been proposed that's been worked on. So I think that there's a lot of development to to sort of like fix some of these valid criticisms and feedback of Ethereum. But I don't think it diminishes this great onchain migration and tokenization of the whole financial system. And I think

that Ethereum uh the the network and the asset both benefit a lot from that over time. And I think that this is like relatively obvious, but everybody in crypto who's been in crypto for so long are like rage quitting and are just frustrated because it's taken so long. Um, but everything is is is, you know, still on track and nothing's derailed that. Um, I agree that it's gotten blurry in the in the moment, but I think in another couple of years it'll be much clearer what's happening. So, I'm >> Mr. Wartime Ethereum here to protect everyone's beliefs. Here to protect Ethereum. I I respect John. I also agree with John uh more than I agree with Martin or David. Now, I've said I was bearish on ETH, you know, for the last few weeks shortterm. I was like, I don't

think it's going to do well. I just see no reason for it to do well right now. Um again, just because of the compute trade, right? When there's just a better asset, like money goes to that better asset. Like 2021, money all went into Bitcoin. Um, and but I do think, you know, if you believe in stable coins, if you believe in tokenization, if you believe in onchain finance, which I think everyone in here does, it's pretty crazy to not believe that Ethereum is going to be the center of that. Like, it's so far ahead of everything. And so, like, I know a lot of people are, you know, it's down bad. It hasn't gone to new all-time highs. And so, like, everyone's like, "Oh, this thing's just useless and it's never going to do anything." But like, all of its metrics are at all time highs right now.

Everything. Tokenization through the roof. stable coins through the roof. Transactions through the roof. Like all the things are at all-time highs for uh for Ethereum. So, I don't know. Hard for me to say that this thing's just not going to make it. Uh the only way I would see that happening is if if blockchains in general just don't make it, which which hey maybe maybe that's that's the case. But that would not >> well blockchains are [laughter] blockchains are like it's really hard to challenge that blockchains are not useful. They they are like they are much more superior and we are moving towards blockchains. But what kind of

blockchains right so if you look at Canon I was checking Canon today and they are making amazing partnerships why all these big banks and DTCC and like all the institutions are not using Ethereum why they are using Canon so I feel like the potential like yes Ethereum I like the product the road map is still quite far where it needs to be today and they are still not able to you know talk to these institutions to the banks to do like the big boys, they are rather, you know, look at Solana, like Galaxy or Figure has their own chain like all all the big guys that are using blockchains today, not all of them are just using uh blockchains. Yes. Like we

know that Black Rockck runs like they tokenized fund on Ethereum. Yes. But they launched it on like so many chains. So I think for a good investment, you need a great product. I think Ethereum is a great product but it's not at the state where it needs to be and because it doesn't justify the timing is right right now. And the the third thing is it needs to be at the right valuation. So the timing and valuation are open questions for Ethereum. The product is great and the road map is bullish but we are not there yet. So the timing and valuation are two big big questions for me.

>> Agreed. Agreed. What is the valuation of Ethereum right now? 214 billion. Yeah, that's tough. Still quite high. >> Um, [laughter] all right. Well, >> okay. Well, let's I'm glad everybody agrees on this. Uh, let's let's [laughter] move on. Um, I I think that uh what I'm curious about uh to kind of like give some forward-looking thoughts on what we think for the the rest of the year here. Do you guys think that Bitcoin ends up higher at the end of the year in 2026? And how much higher, right? Like what do you think happens? Do we just chop till the end of the year? Do we get past midterms and then start to go up? What do you guys see happening for the rest of 2026 for crypto?

>> I mean, we we we talked about what the catalyst is at the beginning and we said there isn't really anything. It's to me it's Clarity Act. Like, if we have to get that and if we don't get that, then no, I don't think we're higher. if we get clarity act um that's probably the thing that does allow us like that's probably our catalyst and and I think is what allows a lot of the things we're building to kind of flourish. I don't know. I honestly don't know if bit like do you mean higher than what it is now or like at all time highs? You're listening to the Milk Road Show which means you've got takes strong ones I bet. But where do those takes actually go? Do you tweet them into the [music] void, argue them in the group chat or do you try to express them by buying a

stock? The thing is, stocks move on like 50 other things at once. And that's where Koshi comes in. It's a CFTC regulated prediction market where you bet directly on outcomes like Bitcoin hitting 100K, Fed rate cuts, GameStop buying, eBay with a clean [music] yes or no. We did a full deep dive on why prediction markets might be crypto's third product market fit moment. Check the show notes for the full report [music] and claim $10 free when you trade $10 on Koshi. >> I mean, I think that's an open question, right? Like, do you think he gets back to 100K? Do you think new all-time highs? Do you think we still chop in this range or you know whatever you think?

>> I would say by the end of the year we're higher than 60,000. Uh I don't know that we're at 100K though. >> That's a very bold prediction. Thank you Kyle. What do you think Martin? Where where do you think we end up at the end of the year? >> I think it's impossible to say like is iron conflict going to you know be resolved in in two weeks or is it going to last for next few months? So that's going to affect Bitcoin and everything else. So it's really hard to say. So I don't want to say range for Bitcoin like you know the bottom can be 40k and you know upside can be I don't know 100k. So it's it's a wide range and I I don't really know I I I just want to you know follow the market see what is going on

and when I see that there is something uh when there is change in sentiment and I see that the situation I run is calming down and but there is one more thing which is midterms are coming and everyone knows that Trump wants stocks to be you know up and so for me when I know that Trump is sort of you know his his main goal is just to make sure that stocks are at all-time highs when they are midterms. So he he can you know like >> yes that's my point but when I know that there is tailwind for stocks because of Trump then why should I move my capital from stocks into bitcoin

>> right >> and I think a lot of people are going to think in similar way >> agreed generally you would say that that's a bullish thing for crypto because if stocks go up you know crypto will go up too uh but that just is not the case >> yeah that's the problem like bitcoin used to frontfront stocks but now It only front stocks when it goes down. [laughter] But when stocks go up, Bitcoin is flat. >> When when stocks go up, Bitcoin goes down a little bit. When stocks go down, Bitcoin goes down a lot. [laughter] That's the world we live in, unfortunately.

>> Are we higher? Are we higher or we >> Yeah, dude. We're definitely higher. I don't know if we're at alltime highs, but I think we'll definitely turn around. I think that no matter how you look at it, there's there's there's going to be a bottom at some point in in the summer in the next few months. And then towards the end of the year, I think we're we're going to be higher than we are now. I don't know how much higher. I don't know if we'll we'll break 100k again or whatever. That may be a later thing. But um I I just I think we're we're in the process of forming and finding a bottom right now on Bitcoin. And I don't think that takes us, you know, another six months to to figure out. It may take three to four.

It may take one to three. I'm not sure. there's a lot of still unknowns as Martin said this year right from a macroeconomics perspective from uh you know policy perspective um but I think that everything is still fundamentally strong in the asset class the the acceleration of tokenization the adoption of the technology isn't slowing down isn't derailed and it's it's not really tethered to sentiment or price all that's still happening um and I think once attention and capital eases off this infinite black hole of of artificial intelligence it's going to be looking for somewhere to go Bitcoin is going to be one of the best and cheapest assets on the market so I I think it'll be really attractive to investors at another point this year. Um, just not right now.

>> By the way, I do think there are certain assets that are going to be higher by the end of this year for sure. Uh, and probably at all-time highs. Um, but again, it's harder to say with Bitcoin because it's not a revenue generating asset, whereas I can say with more certainty that things like Hyperlid and Sky and USDA, their businesses are likely to grow over the year. Uh, and because they drive value back to their token, their token is likely to grow by the end of the year. So I there's things that I'm bullish on still in crypto. It's just harder to be bullish on and harder to be like more like this why like we with Bitcoin and ETH we're like we don't know necessarily because it's harder to predict because it's just a sentiment thing. It's a momentum thing, right? Do people want to buy this thing

or not? It's not a is it going to generate more revenue or not? Is it business going to do better or not? And thus is it going to create more profit and then thus is going to buy back more of its token. you can say those things and you can understand those things for USDI, for Sky, for Hyperlquid, for Lighter. Um, you can't really do that, well, you can't do that at all for Bitcoin and ETH. And so, it's a it's a totally different way to try to value it. And so, I feel like I can be a lot more certain on the performance of certain assets um versus Bitcoin and ETH. >> Yeah, we should finally come up with some better uh differentiation of crypto. Like we don't say stocks and we don't mean like all the stocks in the world, right? So like we talk about

magnificent 7 or we talk about NASDAQ or S&P 500. So it sort of gives you a category that we are talking about but for crypto it involves bitcoin, e, hyperlquid, memecoins like everything and all all the nonsense included. So like yes and we are still saying crypto and what we really mean. So yeah, as you said, like I don't think that the if there is next leg up, it's not going to be like all assets will do well, but there will be certain assets that are going to do incredibly well. >> All right, that dispersion will continue.

>> I also think coin and probably circle will be higher than they are today. [laughter] >> Okay. So I think uh what I'm hearing is that there is still value being created in digital assets. There's still opportunity there. Um, but it's going to be different than it has been in past cycles. And it's a good time to to lean in, to stay educated, stay safe, stay bullish. Um, and to to, you know, keep finding opportunities in the markets as we go toward go towards the end of the year here. Uh, thank you guys. Great research meeting. Thank you all to our audience for joining us and we'll see you all on the next episode of the Milkro Show. Thanks for being here everyone. Bye. Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and [music] how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milk Road daily

and pro newsletters and start investing like the [music] top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.