Crypto's First Real Bull Market: Here's How High We Go

Transcript

We're in crypto's first real bull market. It's going to be bigger than anything that you've ever seen before. This time, the market's going to be driven by altcoins, not by Bitcoin. And in fact, the altcoins are going to outperform Bitcoin by 5.7x. And I'm going to show you how I get there. Before I do though, for those of you who don't know me, my name is Run, Cryptoman Run. I am the founder of Cryptobanter. And I usually talk with my hands, but I broke my collarbone, so I have to be very reserved today and not talk with my hands. I'll do my best. So, let's talk about the most or the or crypto's first real bull market.

And I think in this case, the charts actually tell us a story. The first part of the story is pretty obvious. It's the Bitcoin bare market. We go through the bulls. We go through the bears. And we just went through the one-year bare market and we turned and we turned because of a change or a perceived change in liquidity. That's obvious. It happens every single bull market. Here's where it gets more interesting. That's the chart of Ethereum versus Bitcoin. And I believe that charts tell a story.

If we analyze this chart, we can say that this chart is the chart of every other use of blockchain technology against the original use which was Bitcoin. Bitcoin was the ability to transfer value like data. And this chart represents every other use of using that technology. Correct? Okay. What we can see is that for 9 years since Ethereum launched, this chart has been on a downtrend.

And if you think about what that means, when Ethereum first launched, we thought Ethereum was going to be the next Bitcoin. And it performed very well against Bitcoin. But then we realized that it wasn't actually so amazing. Then we had the ICO run. And then we realized that ICOs were actually kind of illegal, not frowned upon by the SEC and really not that exciting. And so we dipped. Then we had DeFi summer. This year was DeFi summer. And again, we thought there was a use case for this technology. But when they realized that DeFi was hackable, DeFi wasn't sustainable, DeFi was driven and the APRs were driven on

emissions of tokens and wasn't really sustainable. And so we dipped again and now for the first time in 9 years there's a little breakout on the chart as you see over here. So why the charts are telling us a story? The story is that for the first time in nine years, the first time since Ethereum launched, we finally have a product market fit that is more exciting than Bitcoin. And what is that product market fit?

Well, it starts off with the tokenization of everything. This breakout here is the use case of Ethereum and every other smart contract platform and it revolves around the first real use case of crypto other than Bitcoin which is the tokenization of everything. Now I want to show you another chart. This is the chart of the altcoins against Bitcoin. not all the altcoins, the altcoins excluding the top 10 uh altcoins against Bitcoin. And it tells pretty much the same story. We launched the altcoins in 2017. We thought they were going to do really well against

Bitcoin, but then we realized that most the old coins were scams. The technology never worked. And so we crashed. In 2021, we launched a whole lot of DeFi projects. We thought they were going to be better than Bitcoin and we crashed. And now again, what you can see is that we're bouncing off this trend line. And so naturally, you can say that the altcoins haven't done very well against Bitcoin, but we are trending upwards. So let's put these things into perspective. I believe that in this cycle, this chart is going to go all the way up there. And if it does, I

think that the altcoins are going to do an on average a 17x return. Can I I can see most of you are looking at me and saying, "This guy's a lunatic. How the hell do we get to a 17x return on altcoins?" Right? Let me show you. Let's make an assumption on Bitcoin. What is your assumption for Bitcoin between now and the end of the cycle? 200,000 250,000 300,000. What's the number? Give me a number. I'm going to say the number is 250,000. Okay, not unusual. It's a 2x from the previous high. And if that's

the case, that's a 3x from here. So, we agree that Bitcoin can do a 3x from here. Not Not crazy, right? Okay. We also said though that the altcoins against Bitcoin were going to get to the top of that channel. And if they do, then that gives them a 5.7x. Now, when you think about the altcoins outperforming Bitcoin by 5.7x, that's not a big number. In the first bull market, the altcoins outperform Bitcoin by 16x.

In the second bull market, they outperform Bitcoin by 6.2x. And so to say that they will outperform Bitcoin by 5.7x, it's not a crazy assumption. So when you combine the move of Bitcoin with the expected move of the alt against Bitcoin, you get back that magic number of 17.1. Okay, so if we're going to perform at 17.1x in the cycle, how the hell do we get there? And the answer is for the first time in history, Bitcoin, sorry, crypto has product market fit.

the first time since the launch of Bitcoin, crypto has product market fit. So, as an industry, we actually have product market fit. Bitcoin is the store of value. It's found its product market fit. And now, the altcoins also have a product market fit. Bitcoin found its product market fit in USDA. I'm not going to talk about USD basement because I'm not an economist and I can pretend to be a Twitter economist, but ultimately we know that everyone's devaluing their currencies. And in a world where every country is devaluing their currencies, you want to hold the provably scarce asset. That's a fact.

That's how Bitcoin found its product market fit. And even if you're not going to buy my [ __ ] about altcoins here today, if there's one thing that you should be holding in a world where every single country is devaluing their currency and the yields are going to hell, you must have Bitcoin or gold in your portfolios. But now, let's talk about the more exciting stuff. You've all seen social trading, right? You've all seen FOMO. You've all seen Pump Fun. and they seem like a lot of fun, right?

This is probably the biggest use case or the second biggest use case that crypto has ever found. The second biggest product market fit that that that's ever been found. And yes, they're a lot of fun, but don't think that these um social social trading apps are just about fun. This is probably the most exciting thing in the world. It's to me what I call the combination of the world's biggest trading platform and the world's biggest social network having a baby. Now, if you think about it, social networks are amongst the biggest businesses in the

world, right? And trading is also one of the biggest industries in the world. These social trading apps which are built on blockchain are a combination or the baby of the world's biggest social network and the world's biggest casino. Let me explain to you why. And let me explain to you why it's so much bigger than trading. >> Well, it's because of this thing called dopamine. You know what dopamine is?

Do you know why you woke up this morning? Think about like why the hell did you wake up this morning? You woke up this morning because you had things to do. So when you woke up this morning, you opened your eyes and you said I got to go to token 2049. I got to do this. I got to come to Run's talk. You had things to do. And when you achieve those things, your brain rewards you. It gives you a drug. It gives you a thank you. And that thank you is called dopamine. And that is the reason why humans wake up in the morning. We're a bunch of mice and we're addicted to this drug that they give us called dopamine. Let's talk about how dopamine works. You only get dopamine when you achieve something. So,

let me give you an example. If I write a tweet and I tweet it and it gets 100 likes, that's an achievement. I get my dopamine fix. If I write a tweet tomorrow and it gets 200 likes, then I get more dopamine because I achieved something. If I write a tweet the next day and I only get 100 likes, I don't get dopamine cuz I didn't achieve anything. So dopamine is the drug that your body gives you to reward you for achieving. It's the most addictive thing in the world. It's the reason biologically why humans wake up every morning. You've heard the saying, man is a working

being, right? Why? Because we need to achieve. Why do we need to achieve? Because we want to get our dopamine hit. Dopamine is a big business. It's such a big business that the social media networks have built their entire businesses around dopamine. What is a social media network? You do the work. You post a picture on Instagram. And when you do, you start getting likes. and you think, "My god, I'm a genius." And the next day you want to do it again because you want to get a dopamine hit. How does dopamine work? Well, it's got a mechanism in the brain. The first thing is you have to do work. The second thing is you have to hit a target and then

dopamine is rewards you. So going back to our tweet example, I do the work. I write a tweet. I spend time on the tweet. Privacy is important. I delete. I work again. I press the button. And as soon as I press the button, what happens? Start getting the likes. And guess what happens to my brain. You know this guy, right? And then what I do the next day? I come back and I start writing another tweet because I want the dopamine. How does dopamine work? You have to do work. You have to get a target. You have to be recognized

firstly by yourself and then by other people. And the biggest and most addictive dose of dopamine happens when you achieve your target and other people recognize that you've done it. That's why social media networks are so powerful. And social media networks are powered by likes. But what happens when you attach a P&L to likes? What happens when all of a sudden your social credibility or your recognition is not only linked to likes, but also linked to your P&L and your transaction?

Let me explain to you how it works in your brain. You do the work, you buy a coin, you make money, other people see it. Now they're following you. Now they're following you because not only do they like your stuff, but because you're also making money. And your brain gives you an absolute massive hit of dopamine. And it's more addictive and more powerful than any of the social media networks and any of the casinos combined. And that's the first real use case for crypto other than Bitcoin. And it's [ __ ] huge. Sorry, I don't know if I allow say that, but it's [ __ ] huge.

It's bigger than the social networks and it's bigger than the casinos. And that's why Twitter wants to get in on it. Why do you think Twitter's putting buy sell buttons in your tweets? Because they know that your social credibility is going to be linked to your P&L and not only to the number of likes. And that's the first real use case that we've got for crypto. You tokenize everything. You let people trade it. And they get their social credibility and their dopamine hit by trading. And so I believe that in the future 80% of trading in fact no 40% of trading is going to be done through some kind of social trading mechanism like FOMO. I believe that FOMO will soon be bigger than Instagram and maybe even

soon be bigger than Instagram and Tik Tok. That's the first real use case for crypto and you can only do it with blockchain rails. Now let's go to the next one. The bare market was [ __ ] It was tough. And the thing that made the bare market even tougher is that the NASDAQ went up exponentially while crypto went down. That's the NASDAQ and that's crypto. Now, how many of you actually experienced this? We had a [ __ ] time in crypto, but you looked at the NASDAQ and was like, "Why didn't I catch the AI trade?" Okay, don't worry about it cuz I'm going to sort it out for you now.

What were they doing when this chart went up? The NASDAQ, the Cosby, all the stock market indices in the world went up because they were building the infrastructure for AI. Correct. This is a chart of everybody building the infrastructure for AI. Cool. What do they mean by building the infrastructure for AI? Data centers, power plants, etc., etc. For what? For AI. What is AI? It's a bunch of agents. So all this is the infrastructure for a bunch of agents. Cool.

So what are those agents going to do? Well, there's going to be a lot of them. In fact, if you think of the population of the world today, there's 8 billion people in the world. Okay? Of the 8 billion people, only 3.3 billion people are in the active workforce. Only 3.3 of the 8 billion people are actively working. Of those 3.3 billion, the average human is doing one online transaction per day.

Makes sense? Farmers, rural people, one online transaction a day. By 2029, they estimate that there's going to be a billion online AI agents. 2029 is two years away. They're going to be a billion online new agents, which is 25% more workforce by 2029. The only difference between the old workforce and the new workforce is that this workforce is going to be doing 217 billion transactions per day.

So we're going to go from 3.3 billion transactions a day to 220 billion transactions per day. So now you ask yourself the question, all these transactions that all these AI agents are going to do between them, who's settling them? I came out with the thesis that they were going to get settled on blockchain rails. I just had this hunch that when AI agents meet in online on the Ethernet, they're going to want to do a transaction. My agent is not going to know your agent. they're going to want to transact in a trustless manner with instant finality.

And so the only way to do that is using blockchain. You can't use PayPal because if you're a Chinese guy and I'm not a Chinese guy, the two can't transact because the two banks don't talk to each other. So I had this hunch that potentially that would happen. And then Black Rockck came out with a report. And in Black Rockck's report, which came out about a week ago, they said cryptonative blockchain rails are particularly suited for AI agents in real world applications.

That wasn't the end of it. They also said that existing rails such as a blah blah blah are less suited to always on low value transactions requiring programmable execution. So, BlackRock just confirmed exactly what I was thinking. We're about to get into a world with infinite resource. We're about to get into a world where AI agents, every single company is going to have thousands of AI agents meeting and doing microtransactions.

And every single one of those transactions, or not maybe every single one, but a big portion of those transactions are going to be settled on Not only are they going to be settled on blockchain rails, they're going to be hedged using blockchain protocols. So, if you think about an agent that knows it's going to collect a certain currency and needs to hedge against another currency, they're going to go and buy options. They're going to go and buy futures on places like Hyperlquid or or Derive or or or whatever else. And so yes, these guys at the NASDAQ spent a long time building the infrastructure for this amazing thing called AI. And during the time that they were building

this infrastructure, we all took a lot of pain because it didn't filter to us. But now that the infrastructure is ready and everybody's going to start launching these agents, they're going to start transacting. And that's the beginning of the catch-up trade for us to not only catch up to the NASDAQ, but go way higher because the value of the transactions of the network are much more valuable than the build of the infrastructure. Exponentially more valuable. And so to me, I don't think you guys are bullish enough. I don't think anybody's bullish enough because this is the first real bull market that

we've had. It's the first bull market that's not about [ __ ] hot air metrics and token releases. And it's the first time in crypto that we've had product market fit, real use cases, real customers, real revenue, and AI agent growth. And I think to finish it off, the last thing that you want to do is [ __ ] this up. So, welcome to the biggest bull market in crypto. Welcome to the first real bull market in crypto. Don't mess it up, guys. Thank you very much.