Crypto In 2025, Is DAT Season Over & Market Outlook With Jordi Alexander

Transcript

Everyone mentioned this on the show the other day, but Block Works just co-hosted an amazing event in Korea with Story Protocol. Really excited. We had a bunch of great speakers. Arthur Hayes, Caroline Fam, um bunch of big like K-pop and Korean entertainment folks. Um but also our very own uh Felix uh who's the host of Forward Guidance was there. He sat down with Jordy Alexander. I listened to the conversation. It's an amazing amazing amazing conversation about just state of the markets uh uh per DATS and uh we wanted to release it on Empire as a little bonus. So, hope you enjoy this episode with Felix and Jordi Alexander. Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is forformational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show

are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. All right, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Empire. And obviously, I'm not Yano. I'm Felix from Ford Guidance, but I'm going to do my best Yano impression here in Soul. We're recording at the Origin Summit in partnership with Story Protocol and Block Works. And I'm super excited to be joined by Jordi Alexander, founder of Seleni Capital. What's going on, Jordy?

>> Good. Good to chat. A lot of energy going on. >> Yeah, a lot's happening. You're just fresh off a panel. How'd that go? >> Good. You know, there's a lot of people engaged. They had a panel fully in Korean and then fully in English. you you kind of just mix the two together and there's a lot of people engaged here. >> Yeah. Yeah. Super cool. For sure. Um Yeah. Well, I just want to get a read of where your head's at right now on the crypto markets. It feels like when I just scroll through the timeline right now, it's like half the people are looking at the classic four-year cycle type idea and saying, "All right, well, we're 90 95% of the way there. Time to time to get out."

>> Then you have the other half that's saying four-ear cycles are dead. Trad is here. You have a pretty constructive macro environment. What's your read? Where are we at? >> It's so confusing cuz the macro is amazing. Gold is >> skyrocketing. Stocks are doing well. And so you would think that >> uh you know, Bitcoin would be following and it's not yet. It's it's been uh lackluster. You just have random alts popping off really hard. So there is liquidity. >> Mhm. >> Um it's just sort of concentrating in a narrative, a theme, and then it'll go to the next one a week later, two weeks later. Um, so I'm not bearish overall, but it does have signs that we're, you know, I don't believe in the four-year

cycle, but I do think that we're in the like, you know, we had the Bitcoin, we had the ETH ETH had its moment. We had the Salana moment that was always going to be short. >> Now we're we're having a little bit of like the tail alts moment. >> That usually doesn't end well. >> Yeah. So, a pretty big liquidation cascade yesterday. >> Yeah. That that might have just been the beginning. It feels like, you know, even the the darlings, like the hyperlquid token, you know, is down a lot. >> Um, >> so >> I I feel like we're probably due for a reset and then maybe kind of if gold is doing well, Bitcoin kind of leads the way and we get back up. I don't think we go into like a a bare market.

>> Mhm. So, you still have the mind, yeah, fouryear cycle is not really a thing anymore. Is that mostly because of just the type of marginal buyer there is now in the market or what do you think? Or did you never believe in it? >> Uh, no. I believed that it was possible when you were dealing with like very large uh you know halbings. >> Yeah. Right. >> And when you were dealing with like these macro cycles that have now been completely wiped away because the Fed can't allow any kind of dip when you have 35 trillion in debt. >> Mhm. >> So we're just going to be printing our way out. So I don't think we're going to have a real bare market. and the fact that the uh you know the government is doing crypto themselves like they're all >> doing the mining and the DeFi and all of

this stuff. So it's it's way too soon. I think the the next real dip maybe comes, you know, when you get midterm elections, maybe that doesn't go well. But um yeah, this is just going to be a flush out and then we'll resume back up. >> Yeah, I agree with that. It's just like when I look at the macro environment, like this is what Bitcoin is for, right? like and obviously we've seen these times where gold runs first and then yeah Bitcoin shops around and then it's happening at this time where there's just so much leverage built up in alts right now. It's it's a tough situation. So I'm definitely in agreement with you.

It just feels like there's >> I saw this metric that said the the liquidation that just happened was like the largest in like a long time. Like it barely like >> really I know. >> Yeah. People are people are going off the risk curve. There's a lot of um people trying to catch the next thing. I mean, we can talk about the perpex war like >> Yeah. Well, to your point about like dispersion markets, it feels like little things are popping off. The thing that's popping off right now is the perpex war. You got you got Hyperlid obviously, but now you got Lighter, which is coming up, and then you have Aster, which is the Binance Hyperlid. What's Yeah. What's your thought? How do you think about all this?

>> Yeah, it's so weird because, you know, the Purpex space is a space that, you know, I've probably been the most involved in over the last many years. I've really kind of been on the ground at um working with the founders of all these firms uh DYDX onwards and >> it's crazy that you know the fact that this has become a sudden meta now it makes sense because the the one big winner of the cycle has been Hyperlid >> and a lot of people have missed a lot of that and they're you know wanting to get involved in that vertical.

>> Mhm. Now, you know, I'll caution all the newbies who are just getting into the perp deck situation that, >> you know, we've seen amazing perexes, even like Vertex was a great perplex and it was just hard for them to get the token up. I mean, it was trading, >> you know, very low compared to what these things are and it was a great product. >> So, you you can very easily get lost in um you know, owning the exchange narrative. >> That said, >> I think um lighter has done fantastic. Mhm. >> Uh I am an angel investor in lighter so >> um I don't want to be biased. I think objectively zero fees is a great feature.

>> Totally. >> And um you know they're really focusing on um getting the the right user flow for retail because that will kind of bring in and that's what Jeff always you know was um using as a philosophy is the market makers will come if if there's like organic flow. >> Mh. >> Um and then you have you know the new ones. you have the one on uh BSC and base which seem to be I I'll just say like the the token price being in the billions um may maybe is is a lot of excitement >> and we'll see how that settles down.

>> The tricky thing with these Prepexes that I've you know gone through for years >> you have to balance giving airdrops and this is what Hyperlid's finding now like do they do a season two >> Mhm. and then they give out another 10% and then that's not going to do well for the token because that's just going to be you know like 5 billion worth of selling. >> Yeah. >> Or do they not do it and then they start losing customers to people who will do it. >> Mhm. >> So it becomes very tricky to balance emissions uh of airdrops because you want that excitement and then that's going to hurt the token price. It's a very tricky spot and I think even Aster, you know, they're potentially going to do an airdrop.

>> Yeah. >> But the token's already too high to absorb a big air drop. So, it's it's very tricky. >> Yeah, 100%. And then, yeah, you have the situation coming up where there's going to be these quote unquote unlocks for Hyperlid 2 coming up at a time where retail is going to there's so much like excitement for retail that's like, "Okay, well, I miss Hyperlid Farm. I'm going to go farm like crazy lighter. I'm going to go farm like crazy aster." It just feels like anytime people go for the catchup farm, it never works out that well. Like, do you think there's even something to do there? Is it worth even farming or just like stick to what you what you know?

>> I think I think in this case uh there is I um the category is so big and hyperlid was so much further than everybody else that there is a room for you know someone to trade at you know 5 10 billion instead of 50. Um so you know there's a lot of gaming obviously going on people just trying to watch volume in different accounts. There's a lot of this stuff. Um, I think as a regular user, you know, deciding where to spend your time um is is is tough. Maybe kind of make an account in several of these. Um, the reality is uh these airdrops can be quite good >> and uh you know it's it's it's a lot of

free money. Like you remember hyperlquid people were getting liquidated and losing money and then the airdrop was like more than they lost more than what they Yeah. So >> uh I think that I think that can repeat. Yeah. Yeah, I do too. Um, all right. Other than perplexes, what are you excited about? We're obviously at a origin summit talking about AI, talking about programmable intellectual property. >> Yeah. >> What do you think about all of that? Where's it head at? >> I mean, look, AI is a category I've been very bullish on, web 3 AI for, you know, the longest time. I think we're due for like a resurgence of a theme. I mean, honestly, compared to like the the D that season and >> you know, the per season, like I said, I have a soft spot for it, but then I'm also like these some of these BS like

some of those tokens are doing something else. >> Um I would love to have a AI season part two that's maybe built on some cool new things. >> Uh maybe maybe it's Q4, maybe it's Q1, but I'm expecting that um that will come. So, I'm seeing very close to the category. Um, yeah. I think we just need a few killer apps that are bringing AI into crypto rails and it's going to happen. >> Yeah. Cool little new things, new killer apps. Like is there any more specifics you can get into what you're interested? Obviously, right here it's like we're taking web two and we're we're bringing it into web 3 rails and then I think you mentioned you're excited too about what Pudgy Penguins is doing about taking web three, bringing the web two like >> Yeah, paint some color there.

>> Yeah, there's so many directions that things can play out. Um, you know, I just like to keep a wide net because you don't you get so surprised >> as an investor like the things that pop off sometimes is not like, you know, I invest in in something as like a, >> oh, I like the foundry is a nice guy. I don't like the idea, but I'll just put some money and then that does it incredibly well and then like the really hype stuff doesn't. So, um, we'll see. I mean, we just invested in a company called Everlin that does uh, you know, video generation and you can tokenize that and has like a lot of serious backing. Kind of coming back to the IP theme, I think like apps that really um, bridge the two worlds of web 2 and web 3 are are going to potentially be the new

uh, explosive thing and maybe the next poly market. So, we'll see. um you know like from a first principal standpoint trying to think through okay like what exactly should go into a blockchain and >> you you can go really far down that rabbit hole and sometimes you just get surprised by by what actually pops off. >> Yeah. Yeah. 100%. Um earlier you mentioned that season and when you mentioned that season you kind of said it in like a past tense. >> Yeah it's a past tense honestly. >> Is it over? I think I think it's over because >> um you know we we've done some of these and >> even the ones where the token has done very well since um you know since when the DAT

>> sort of marked it and maybe tokens gone up >> uh like you know you look at B&B I mean it's gone up a lot. Yeah. >> Um there's not that much appetite for uh retail to buy most of these, especially if they're not, you know, BTC ETH. >> Mhm. >> Um and even the BTC with ETH ones, I mean, the margin, the M&Ms are compressing so hard. >> Yeah, >> I think it's over. Um maybe because I want it to be over, it never really made a lot of sense. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think um we're starting to see the pitches. We get a lot of pitches for these dads still. They're starting to evolve, which is good. They're becoming more like operating companies

>> trying to actually have cash flow and revenue rather than just, you know, this is a treasury. This is just a pile of gold. >> We're not going to touch it. In some cases, they can't even touch it because the foundation won't even, you know, give them like the, you know, various ones where you just know these are never going to be sold. Mhm. >> So at that point, what is the value of how of coins that can't be sold? >> And as you know, retail eventually catches up to this. >> Mhm. >> Um I don't know. You are you more bullish on that? >> No, dude. No. Well, okay. I I I I see them in a few different buckets. There's the classic ones that are just copycat ones and they're all trading at a discount and have now at this point.

>> You have the classic Bitcoin. You have the classic big dog ones like strategy and Tom Lee uh >> and they're still holding at a premium and then you have the last one which feels like this attempt you you called it like an operational company. I have to sort of think about it. It almost sounds like they're becoming like a a public discretionary hedge fund in a way like the the what what Kyle Smani and them are doing with uh Ford where they're trying to find ways to basically create a sustainable premium to MNA through doing stuff on chain. So, the copycats I think are done. The big dogs, they're not going to be huge marginal buyers like they have been, but they're still I don't know if they're going to go to a discount. And then there's these sustainable ones, which I don't really

have a strong view, but I'm interested to see where they go. What What do you think about those three buckets? >> I think um the the onchain hedge fund like whatever like this weird thing like the Sani's fund now, they're drift and they're tokenized. >> It's interesting as an experiment. >> Yeah, >> we'll see what happens. I'm not bullish or bearish. You know, it depends how well they execute. It's an execution thing. >> But the other thing we've seen is that these things have run up the alts that they're buying so hard. You know, the the most striking one is Etheina because >> Mhm.

>> you know, they ran up to 80 80 plus cents and then just the biggest slate of good news possible you could ever imagine. >> It's hammering every day at news. >> Incredible. like they get Binance integration finally and then they can do the fee switch and then they can do more Bayick >> and the token is just that down only >> because these things just get front run >> and then there's so many people they're just getting out and so no matter you know how good because the I think in my opinion is the best news possible. just had everything >> and even that's you know uh and that's showing like what's going to happen to these other ones >> where you know you look maybe when they're 75% done with buying even Salana now you know I think most of the Salana

buying is done I don't know if they'll be they'll be able to top up a lot >> but um the other side of it you know is the hangover where people are just getting out of all the frontr run positions >> so um you know choppy waters for for um things that have run up. I think >> yeah, it also brings forth the issue of just the way we've structured these tokens and like guy at Athena is the first one to admit this. He was Yana had him on the show a couple weeks ago and he's like look like I made some mistakes in how much I raised and how many tokens I sold and now paying the price and trying to find a way to you know improve the tokconomics in a sustainable way.

But even then it's it's tough like do you do you think that structure is going to evolve in a positive way or are we sort of still stuck in this world that we're in right now? >> Uh which structure specifically you mean? like just like high like low float high FV. >> Oh, this is like low float thing. I mean, we're we're having a huge resurgence in the low float highf. I remember when >> Binance was um getting all the complaints for every single chart was down only >> and they were saying, you know, we're going to do something about this and they were going to try to force projects to have a higher float and avoid this. >> I think um you know, people have forgotten all about that and now we're we're in like low float low float season part two.

>> Like this is awesome >> for like 5 minutes. Yeah, I mean these launches like some of these short squeezes on >> Yeah. >> you know, we have like the these tokens that are on Bit nowhere else and they go to 20 billion and like clearly there there's some stuff going on. So, um yeah, look, I I'm >> I really don't like the consequence of the low float thing because eventually it it sort of maps out very differently. I understand why people are doing it. They want to show um traction and and you know, good price.

I don't think it's going away soon. I think people are going to have to learn their lesson um just just through going through like these down downturns once eventually tokens unlock. >> Yeah, fair enough. Um all right, last question here just circling back on how we started the conversation which is we're very much at the same mind which is macro looks good. I don't really believe in the four year cycle anymore like diminishing returns in the happenings. So I'm like fundamentally things are looking good. Just look at gold, just look at equities. But crypto is struggling a little bit right now. So, how do you what what's what's your advice to the average retailer for just navigating this situation where you know where we're going to go? It's just about surviving this this bleed and these liquidation cascades in the interim.

>> Yeah, I think the the large cap midcaps are probably a little bit expensive right now. So, I'm staying out of most of them. Um it's hard to sell Bitcoin when it's so cheap relative to gold. >> So, still holding Bitcoin, I think. um it might not do well for a while cuz like I said if we get a flush out and everything obviously Bitcoin goes lower as well and maybe we kind of test 100. Um yeah it's it's a it's a weird spot. You know you don't want to be in cash when everything is just inflating and going up.

>> Mh. >> But um personally I think it's also not the time to um top blast just given given like I said there's a lot of overhang from you know that front running and stuff like this. So, I think just waiting there'll be dips there. There will be a a good dip to buy. >> There'll be a good dip to buy. Jordy, great to get you on Empire. >> Yeah. >> Enjoyed your panel here at the Origin Summit and Yeah, all the best. >> Thanks for having me. >> Yeah, thank you. [Music]