CPI, XRP and the sectors Carl Vogel favours for 2025

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily crypto show where we make crypto insights simpler than deciding to round up for charity at checkout I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we're joined by Carl vogle partner and head of research at six-man man Ventures now if you don't know six-man Ventures they're an early stage crypto VC firm investing in applications infrastructure one of the leading firms in the space highly respected today we're going to get Carl's take on CPI inflation report that came out yesterday we're going to talk about xrp ripping hitting new all-time highs we're going to tell you why what's going on what's causing that pump we're also going to get Carl's highest take conviction for 2025 what tokens what sectors does he

like now before we jump in you guys might remember that back in the end of last year I think it was one of our prediction episodes I said I would give away a milro pro subscription for free to one of our subscribers well live love level up that's your name on YouTube we are trying to contact you to give you a free melcro Pro subscription if you're listening to this check your DM so we can hook you up if we don't hear from you by the end of the week we're going to pick somebody else and somebody else is going to get that free Pro subscription before we jump in we'll just take a minute to hear from our sponsors who make the show possible meet odos the defi aggregator that makes your token swap smarter faster and a whole lot easier tired of trading like it's

2019 O OS finds the best prices for your swaps across 900 liquidity sources and 14 blockchains so you always get more bang for your crypto Buck whether you're swapping setting a limit order or just avoiding gas feed like the plague oos has you covered it's like having a genius Trader in your pocket minus the coffee addiction join 3 million wallets already using odos to power over 6 billion in monthly trades start making smarter swaps today at milkroom oos Carl welcome to the milk Road Show terrific to be here excited to jump in yeah man really excited to have you first time having you on the show hopefully not the last time uh let's start with green candles all around it

was sort of a a rough bumpy period to start January and then CPI and things were really really dipping and everybody was saying oh my gosh are we going to get down to 70k 80k bitcoin you know we touched 89k and was like no but CPI came out yesterday Mar Market reacted fairly positively CPI came in at 2.9% which was met expectations even though it was an increase from 2.7 which was the previous CPI uh what's your reaction what's your thoughts on this I mean I'm not surprised I think when people were sort of becoming bearish on bitcoin at this point it's like the the most exciting

opportunity for Bitcoin the world has ever seen where from a US perspective we have a Pro crypto um regime that is coming in under Trump we expect there's going to be Mass reforms in regulation making it easier for both government our government but also companies Enterprises small businesses to actually start buying and owning and even transacting in crypto I think there's going to be a lot of Regulation not just on bitcoin but on the stable coin front which is really going to help these businesses build end to-end Solutions on crypto rails now it's not going to happen overnight but for somebody to be bearish over these when we're going into this next four years of optimism um I'm not surprised at all that we're that

we're back up and I expect over the next you know this this four years looking out we're going to see of course new all-time highs on bitcoin so it's it's pretty clear to me and I'm incredibly optimistic about U the next four years yeah yeah me too okay I I want to talk a little bit more about Bitcoin and some news today but before we do we we got to talk about xrp because I I will woke up this morning and xrp is hit alltime highs uh I got the chart up on the screen for the last year of xrp just flat flat until October xrp is the funniest token look at the max chart here this is a scary chart look at this wow it just has these massive green candles out of nowhere and then Fades

again I don't think that all this screams to me not a token that I want to own personally but uh obviously you can't you can't fade a token that's you know getting this type of attention hitting all-time highs my view the reason for these all-time highs the big news was that Trump said that he has been meeting with a bunch of crypto Founders American crypto Founders specifically and basically this news is leaked that he might consider a us-based crypto Reserve that would prioritize American founded coins salana xrp being on that list what are your thoughts thoughts about this so from a crypto perspective it's extremely optimistic to see the

government taking positions and promoting American exceptionalism um I think for too long we've seen Founders have to move outside the US or launch tokens outside the US and I think he's saying bring it back like let's do this America and let's win together so incredibly optimistic about that I think over the very long term I'd rather us owning treasury assets not just that are americanmade but are actually best for the long term of our country I think that one of the bigger unlocks is of course that but it's really that again um xrp and and then organization has been under lawsuits for many years and those have been slowly been clearing out but I think now people realize that regulatory overhang that legal overhang is now being removed and there's going

to be a clear pathway paved so you know think about this a year ago lawsuits um multiple lawsuits ongoing against the organization and now it's not only are those going to be going away most likely in full but it's wait this might actually become part of the American government Reserve right so that change of tone and attitude over the past year is remarkable so I'm not surprised to see it hit out alltime highs to be honest not not Financial advice but I am not an xrp holder um but I will tell you that they are a dedicated Community I can tell when xrp is ripping because all of a sudden these dormant chats that haven't gotten any action for years we were like oh we're up baby let's go and uh I I love people for that and I think

with culture I mean with crypto so much of crypto is about culture it's not just about fundamentals of like how much revenue is a token producing and I think there is a strong strong strong culture around xrp so I think they're really ring to here together to get a new all-time high yeah I think the the the bet on xrp in my mind is at this point less about the fundamentals because the fundamentals are not strong enough to represent its current valuation but the the potential as you said of if they got into favor with this regulation that's going to come in not exactly sure the timeline but it's going to come in the

next year likely maybe it takes a few years we'll see but particularly on the stable coin side like if if xrp's Ripple stable coin were to become a favored stable coin through the regul that would be you're kind of betting on something like that in my mind which I don't necessarily like betting on that stuff because that's completely out of my control and who knows if that happens or not and it kind of feels more like it'll be it's very it's very speculative to something that yeah don't know I mean especially when you put it in the context of circle um the largest US issuer of stable coins today across numerous blockchain networks sort of the industry standard apart from apart from tether you know I think tether was was

pursuing an IPO and the valuation was around five billion and I forget the number on that chart but it was hundreds of billions and so you look at the mispricing there and you know it's either that xrp is extremely lofty and going to come down at some point or that in general people are more bullish on stable coins and you know Circle IPO perhaps should be going at a lot higher price and that's one to watch when it when it happens so I think there's a lot of mispricing in the market right now and for those diligent Searchers and Traders that are for those mispricings creating narrative around it I mean another classic one is salana eats which we can get into later but like mass mispricing in terms of the fundamentals across salana versus ethereum so another really big opportunity there so I think

just looking at these mispricings building positions and then sort of follow following those and and promoting those narratives really a key to success over the next year what let's let's talk about where you see those mispricings let me just bring up like the the xrp sh quickly so so xrp almost 200 billion market cap so as you mentioned like a massive gap between 200 billion market cap and a potential five billion IPO by by by tether who is much bigger exactly than xrp is here where where where do you do you want you want to chat about I'm down to chat about salana e let's do Sal E I mean so at six man Ventures we've been longtime Salon investors

probably one of the biggest investors in the salon ecosystem across number of companies and the quality of outcomes from the founders we invested in um in general for those that don't know salana is a high performance blockchain um basically built to be much more scalable than exist Legacy systems like ethereum unlike ethereum that has a number of rollups where a lot of the transactions happen and the value Acres back to ethereum the main token everything takes place in salon on the Bas layer and so when you start looking at performance in terms of defi trading volume the am of Revenue that's being generated on chain the amount of transactions that are going on even if you start to add up ethereum and all of its l2s on many of

those metrics they still underperform salana so from that perspective salana is just an incredibly strong asset with a the probably the strongest Builder community of Founders out there launching new products but yet its market cap is 1/4 out of ethereum and so you know that's why the salana trade was was one of the best trades to make over the past two years because it went down to $8 and now is back up to two you know $25 so both on our as a fund and RPA we were very long Salon during you know buying during that season and had some you know pretty generational outcomes and so we continue to beong that trade though because we do think there's a lot of

opportunity do you think that ethereum has its moment finally in 2025 that everybody the bull case for ethereum is instant it it has I'll say stronger likelihood of being an Institutional change so when you talk about Black Rock when you talk about these very large companies and they start to issue different types of structured Financial products those have a higher chance I would say of being issued on ethereum or some sort of permissioned network that then rolls up to the ethereum ecosystem I think just ethereum has been in market for a lot longer there's much more data on it um in terms of the past two years

it's just had more uptime than something like salana um and so the bull case is a number of these institutions coming out with products that all of a sudden people realize ethereum is an incredible asset and uh is a proxy to this institutional adoption of crypto I think that's the ethereum bulk case the salana bull cases all of the new if not all like close to all of the new consumer applications and things being built at scale for millions of users are going to be built on salana and so people are just going to need to buy salon and even interact with some of these different applications I think pump. fun is a perfect example where you know that company has generated over $400 million

in 10 months built on salana but users need salana to trade the mem coin and so now you have all these users buying salana to go ahead and trade and you know they realize that salana is incredible technology it works as well so both have strong bull cases I'll be honest like SLA is by far my heavier bag of the two but I can see ethereum having a m a moment for sure yeah yeah and obviously with AI agents you know you mentioned mem coins and pumped up fun next is up is AI agents I don't want to quck get into that yet but let's come it back to that later in the show but uh salana really set up to succeed as a result of AI agents as his base uh which obviously rolls up to ethereum so big opportunities on both sides the

difference there though is for coin for there's no base token so in order to hold coinbase you really need to buy coin you know coinbase's um stock and so to some people that is less appealing than getting something liquid that I can buy anywhere in the world without having to use a like a a bank or brokerage or something like that so that's the benefit of One Versus the other but yeah I agree base especially in this AI agents if you look at dpin sort of most crypto categories it does seem like salana and base are the two places where these higher performance things are being built yeah okay let's let's touch on bitcoin quickly and what we expect to

happen for the market uh basically for like the next few days the next week I'm curious to get your thoughts on this so bringing up the Bitcoin chart I think the one thing that everybody know needs to know is we we have yes we are pumped back up to 999,000 we're at 995 as of recording right now uh but we are still in this range if you like ta we're still in this channel we haven't necessarily broken out now we do have sort of a falling wedge pattern happening as well which is often quite bullish especially when we're leading up to Trump's inauguration which could very likely be a big moment and a lot of positive news what are your thoughts on bitcoin right now and what do you expect to see over the next

week it's look I am not a TA I don't trade on ta so it's it's harder for me I'm much more of a barbell strategy hold my Bitcoin long-term hold my salon so I don't have a differentiated view but what I would say is if Trump does have big news coming up at his inauguration or in the week following about a Bitcoin um sort of governmental treasury I would hate to be the person that didn't own Bitcoin going into that announcement so my view is look I don't know if how when those are going to materialize but I think they have a high probability of occurring over the next call a couple months or the next year and we already see start individual states starting to do this we saw Pennsylvania I saw

Oklahoma and so you would just hate to be the person who's doesn't have bags in that type of environment and I think once you start to see the US start to pave way here as you mentioned before like other countries are also interested in it so it's it's hard to understand how quickly the adoption will go but I know that I'm secure going into that and and have strong Holdings yeah it's a great point and and you just mentioned other countries buying uh Hunter horley the uh C of bitwise and we actually we got the bitwise team coming on the show next week so we'll directly ask him about this um but uh he said we just provided this is yesterday we just provided some information for a nation state asking about Bitcoin ETFs um you know they are considering moving some

exposure from foreign currency government bonds into BTC if Bitcoin is entering a new chapter I think this is going to be a headline I think we're going to see quite a bit in the next year now obviously this is speculative and there isn't actually buying happening yet but then the arms race is on for governments we are at the point where this is Bitcoin is is is gunpowder or AI Tech you pick your version of new technology that if you don't own it you're you're you risk falling behind and Bitcoin is in that part of yeah there's a quote I really like that they were afraid to be first than they were

afraid to be last m so I think everyone sees this circling and being pent up but once people start buying and announcing all of a sudden everyone's going to be uh I I don't if we can curse or not the show but like basically curse oh yeah holy we got to start getting into this because we don't want to be the last guy that's that's buying this this bag right so I think you're going to see a lot of movement here over the next over the next couple months yeah yeah the other quick things that came out today was that a is considering a bit adding Bitcoin to their treasure y uh there's rumors that China is unofficially buying Bitcoin I kind of feel like everybody knows that but more China's been buying it for a while I

mean like I think so too like for me to think like oh all of a sudden now in 2025 they started buying Bitcoin it's like dude they were probably buying it you as they were Banning it they were probably buying it themselves at cheap prices right so I think uh I I would not be shocked at all if that's if that's taking place okay let's let's chat about what what are you most excited about for 2025 which tokens or sectors do you have the most conviction in yeah in terms of sectors that I think your users would want to learn about the two or three we can talk about is deep in um AI tokens I mean that's always a hot a hot area where there's tons of new projects

coming out it seems daily and then the financialization of everything so how is our social media experience going to change once you start building markets on top but maybe let's start with deepin at a high level um yeah we haven't talked about deep in a lot recently because it hasn't had the narrative yeah and so and and I mean if I put out a show we we had helium coo on Frank on the show like two months ago I I thought it was a great show and it bombed nobody right so let's let's let's tell our audience why they should be paying attention to deep pit and maybe they'll catch up okay well in that case you're you're setting a low bar here when we talk about dpin so if I exceed that bar it's only up from here basically is what

we're saying so here's the thing defi today is trying to rep platform the financial system it's saying instead of going through these sort of like various Banks where they're all basically have different counterparty risk T rolling up to the central government how do we remove these counterparties and create direct transactions to do the types of financial you know needs and build the financial per we use today send receive borrow lend margin leverage Etc and I think it's been an incredibly productive space think about that same framework but instead of rep platforming the financial system rep platforming our infrastructure and I think Trump in particular is really focused on American

exceptionalism he sees degrading infrastructure and realizing you know these Legacy companies like they're trying to make infrastructure decisions from boardrooms hundreds of M and thousands of miles away like they're not in touch with the type of services that everyday Americans and even across the globe that people are using so how do we rep platform our infrastructure well that is where deepin starts to come in and so basically across the deepin stands for um decentralized physical physical infrastructure exactly so basically think about networks that are being created by people running physical devices whether it's computers it could be cameras it could be air quality sensors all these different

things and it's giving people the ability to control their own data and control their own infrastructure in a way we haven't seen before so one of the areas I am really excited about is mapping and so in this space the the thesis is we have Street View today and there's ways where you can start to use Google or and get a view of something but that data is really stale and the question is well how do you create a realtime Network where anyone in the world can get a live shot of anything in the world and so Hive mapper is one of the key Technologies here which is basically a dashboard sorry dash cam that any of your listeners could buy put in their car and start mapping what it's

doing is it's processing data it's tagging certain things like construction zones it's tagging if there's potholes in the road all it's a traffic data all these different signals and relaying it up to a network and so now people and companies are buying that data on the back end and so as running this dash cam instead of this road getting driven over once every six months and getting a view it's happening multiple times a day and so if you think about data latency that's a massive value proposition that is being created and the way I extend this Beyond Hive mapper is we've seen a lot of deals on aerial mapping so like using uavs and think about all the natural disasters we've had recently with the the fires going on in La we had

what happened in North Carolina imagine if people could send up their uavs as part of a targeted Network for disaster relief um so for example hey show me a spot here somebody gets tokens for fulfilling that query and running a UAV over certain pattern another area that's going to grow a ton is hedge funds as we know hedge funds use mapping data today from satellites it's a very well understood and known but the thing is satellites only have a certain refresh rate they might not get the same level of clarity and granularity that you can get from a UAV and so imagine now you could be a hedge fund in Singapore say I want to understand the number of cars in a Walmart in Oklahoma you click a button and that network is built out and

somebody can fulfill that instantly or within like a you know one hour period that is an incredibly powerful technology around understanding our world in a way that didn't exist before so I think mapping is one part of dpin I'm really looking at let's just let's just go a little bit deeper on here because I I love I love Hive mapper and we actually had Ariel the CEO and founder of Hive mapper on the show like probably like two years ago a long time ago uh so you're you're really barking up my tree here uh but I just G to bring up their site they have mapped 30% of the world y 30% of the world you know how long it must have taken Google and these other large mapping companies to map 30% of the world and they've done this in I think under like maybe a year

or two so not that long couple years I mean it's incredible incredible rate of growth now the other thing I got to bring up is their their token now their token is honey for everybody that's interested in what we're talking about here their their market cap is2 200 million $225 million that is so low in crypto 460 fully diluted so okay you know a little bit you know more if you're fully diluted but still this token all-time highs back in the last oh was a year ago back in early January they reached point 29.3 currently sitting at seven cents any any predictions or thoughts on where you think honey could go in the next in this cycle yeah so I I expect it to go

higher the thing is what I look for in investment is limited downside with large amount of upside and when I look at this token you've seen it's had a really good support for however many months there like at least like six months it's really established this floor in terms of relative valuations a company that can map anything in any road in the world trading for 200 million market cap seems pretty reasonable like okay well it's probably not going to go to five million right you have a a pretty strong floor with again once these things start making more once the company starts making more announcements and you just hear more people using it earning tokens from the dash cam I think this is one that just has a very large upside now the one caution to your listeners around dpin is

there needs to be more retail interest in deepin if you look at the trading volume it's very low right and so the the from a fundamentals perspective there's very few sectors more exciting to me than deepin but from a is this token G to pop and is there going to be liquidity on the back end to get out of it it's something to watch for and I wish these dend projects did a better job creating liquidity and communities for their tokens I think they'll get there um but that's something that I would be watching for the last to be watching for as I'm looking at that high mapper chart is the ratio of circulating Supply to fdv right there's still a lot of tokens that are going to be coming out and so

I'd be looking at um what does that schedule look like and is there going to be persistent selling from early institutional investors into that Tok from that token so these are all things to watch out for but like generally this this I think is a very low downside very high upside again not Financial advice I am an RA and I can't give you formal Financial advice but looking at the chart the fundamentals very very strong okay okay I Like It Hot take what else in deep in do you like I tend to like projects well I actually so I I wrote I'm not going to go through the whole piece but I wrote a piece on this and I outlined four things I look for when looking for deep in projects on the private investment side one of the ones

I really like is where demand so like let's say I map something I send out a signal sort of an infinite number of people can consume that when having only one provider and the reason for that is you don't need to constantly be balancing supply and demand so for example in the case of a street map for a hive mapper and then I'll go into the next one I can map a road and you could have one person look at that photo or millions of people look at that photo it's still the one track and so all of a sudden you get a lot more value and revenue coming into the network versus oh now I need to incentivize a whole bunch more people to drive through that road um the counter example of that of course is compute networks where as the demand goes up you

need more compute to meet match that demand so that's the counter example another one here that is very low fdv relative to I think what it could do is one called geonet and it's basically a thesis on the future of Automation and robots if you believe in this future then this is probably the dpin you should be looking at what they do is for everyone knows for GPS it's actually not that accurate it's only accurate to within 3 meters a lot of times they basically send out a highly detailed signal from their network of sensors that then allows GPS to be accurate within one centimeter and you ask well why is that important well if you have you know automated farming you have

automated um delivery going around different cities you have all these different things these devices need to know where they're at in space and this is the type of network that sends out those signal that allow for much more precise location management so this is one I've been watching again fdv of only looks like now 350 20 million it was 250 before um the type of project I look for again strong fundamentals category leader is something I always look for like is this the winning company in the space right now I would say it is from everything I've seen these are the types of companies I look for so chart to watch again a lot of low market cap to to FTV so that means there could be investors and private I'm not a private

investor in this company but like there could be investors that are selling which would suppress the price again not a ton of trading volume so one to watch out for but in general as these things start to grow and start to trade more very very optimistic for networks like this yeah and certainly I I think the the big thing as you said is really to watch for will retail have its dpin moment in and it did last cycle again last cycle look at helium's and the hive mappers I think we got to find how to bring that back and I think we do that this this sector can have unlimited growth and again it's not like a deun play it's it's like we're creating real value for real people um throughout the world that is a really exciting Vision

yeah okay I gotta get your take on uh AI agents uh and AI crypto uh as a whole what are your thoughts I find what's going on right now in the space over the past two months incredibly exciting for context prior to this there was a lot of companies that raised large amounts of venture capital sometimes 5 10 15 20 million dollar rounds to build these crypto AI projects but to date most of them haven't shipped anything you know so some early investor is getting a lot of upside in this company it's been you know six months to a year and the company hasn't shipped now again it might be a great product and it takes time and it's no shade to those Founders but as a listener you get no upside in

that you know until it goes live at a billion token may go live at a billion or two billion and then you get on the upside what we're seeing now is Frameworks like cerebro Ai 16z and the Eliza framework The Arc framework that's being developed by playground we now these Frameworks are being built and they're launching an open token that anyone can buy and what that means is you're actually participating more in the upside than you could with the traditional AI crypto segment what only for private investors like myself um and so I find that trend to be really exciting to like people getting more interested in Ai and actually using this stuff the other thing is Aliza is live today you can use it and I think the

only way that you're going to learn as a Founder is if your product is being used by customers and so the rapid ination that's going to be taking place in both the Frameworks that are being built that I just talked about but also the different types of agents that are going to be delivered on top of them there's a lot of these coins out there right now they're at5 million $6 million market cap of what could be a really cool agent so again in this space I think you're not going for deep conviction in one or two you're like seeing these early risers and being like great let me go ahead and take a position here and then you might get a five or 10x over a very short period of time so that's why I'm really excited is it's a new capital structure live products that people can

try real communities getting built around them on the framework side I I typically don't like to invest in places where there's multiple competitors and so I I personally have not done a lot of investing in Ai 16z and sort of the big Frameworks because to me it's not clear which one's gonna win and that makes it really hard given that like I'm not like looking at AI full-time so I look for more if there's a category leader putting my chips there or if there's like very low market cap things that you could just get a lot of upside even in a competitive environment that's kind of my Approach that I've been taking it's worked out pretty well so far but obviously I'm always updating that and you have to do it daily in this in this market yeah that's the I think that's

the tough thing about AI agents and and first I want to bring up a few charts and just get your thoughts on this because the way I like to think about this is um let's just zoom out and as you said picking the specific project that wins in AI agents or even extend to crypto AI in this cycle is going to be very difficult because it's so much based on hype and speculation and so first I think the thing is okay let's just let's build our thesis around what could AI agents as a whole get to in this cycle right now as of recording let me bring up cookie. fund total market cap for AI agents according to cookie.

fun which tracks 1,266 agents and includes Frameworks Within These is 17.4 billion that's current total market cap okay Masari put out a couple of charts recently which where they basically mapped AI Trend to memes of 2023 24 memes got to peaked at about 40 just above 40 billion uh and if you look at where we are right now now this is mapping as of if it was at 10 when it was at 10 billion or maybe that's actually today maybe it's around today I think it's yeah we're pretty close pretty close pretty close basically it's showing we got we got some time to go can compare if you compare to memes the other comparison they've made is comparing to Def def made it to like 64 billion again we got some time to go

what do you do you you have any predictions on what total market cap for AI could get to in this cycle quantitative numbers no I mean because people that try to develop those are going to be are probably going to be wrong I think the the way to think about it is AI is a generational technology and where I would not want to be is riding this up and writing this down again when I was an early crypto investor four five six years ago I was like the AES of the world and these things are just got it's up only right and then you realize that you know people had way too much exuberance coming out of defi summer on the future potential and these things took you know 70 80 90% downsides so do I think the market has a lot of room to grow yes but

my personal conviction is now on the way up I'm starting to take off some profits so that way if I do miss the the top and you know get down ways I at least feel good about that investment and and have earned a good return they're building up a capital base I I like how you know Ral Paul talks about this where he's like look this is a 10-year generational opportunity we have in crypto and what you don't want to do is over leverage yourself or overextend yourself thinking that you and even be right and then not sell and and all of a sudden your Capital base is low like the number one make M way to make money is just have a big Capital base and don't lose a lot of it in the different Cycles but I think there's some good buying opportunities I

think it's going to go up over the cycle for sure the question is just when and how do you take profits on it and that's been my big learning for uh for investing in crypto yeah definitely and if you guys want to uh learn a little bit of when and how to take profits go back and listen to yesterday's episode uh with Kyle where he talks about I mean his great line from this episode was uh the objective is not to make the most money the objective is to make money because if you try to make the most money you you usually lose but if you just make money you usually win so take profits yeah and it's like there's one or two there's a couple memes I hold that I have strong conviction in and uh one of them I sold 25% of my position

maybe a month ago and then it went up a little bit more and I was like oh I can't believe I sold but now I look at it and it's down from where I sold I'm like well I'm glad I took some profits now again do I think it's gonna come back yes but I you feel so much better making money even if you miss part of the top then gosh I just rode that thing all the way down feel like such an idiot totally which which which memes do you have conviction in big my biggest Holdings are whiff Bonk um and here's the thing the AI a lot of the AI tokens I'd say are memes fundamentally but in terms of size those are the two again to me longtime salana OG oh I Doge I have some Doge as well um Doge to me was a fun buy actually going

into the Trump presidency which worked out quite well and to me it's just if you're gonna see do every single day on the news and Elon is gonna be putting out like the do the dog and you're like okay well basically I think Doge could become a proxy to how well Doge does again like it's kind of like these new social markets it's like what can I bet on and that's the amazing thing about poly Market is allowed people to speculate and bet on things that otherwise they they couldn't and I think doge is a proxy to how well the government's Doge does and I'm like you know what is it a will it work I don't know but I think it's a pretty good play um and so far has worked out but I'm I'm

really excited about that so I think just having those really clear narratives in your head and why is something ought to work is very valuable yeah you can't you can't underestimate the power of Elon Musk who has the largest following on Twitter the one of the biggest owns Twitter one of the biggest impacts in the world when he says something and now he is in charge of the Department of governmental efficiency Doge and he's going to be working on that talking about that like it how can that not pump it's something where I wouldn't not want to be exposed again made it may it be wrong perhap but imagine not having exposure and you're like wow that was such an obvious opportunity that I missed so that's

that's again very large upside hopefully limited downside okay uh before we we wrap you did mention at the beginning of the show financialization of everything another sort of more bit fluid of a sector and a bit more difficult to Define just tell us a little bit about your thoughts here yeah the way I think about it is we've introduced Financial markets to things over time and as we do those things get better so for example Sports 40 years ago like it was pretty hard for people to bet on Sports and like people and watch their home game their home team but they usually didn't watch every single football game well all of a sudden now with fantasy football with

you know FanDuel offering like you know midgame bets and like a bet in the next 10 seconds people are incredibly engaged in at watching the game watching other games throughout the league and so these financial markets have both allowed you know for truth Discovery who actually is supposed to win this game rather than just what a bunch of bookie say in Vegas like what are the real odds of this and it allowed people to have more enjoyment they're so much more engaged and so I think you look at Sports and like very clear how financialization has made that better I think if you look at social media it's pretty under financialized today so we're seeing a lot of companies in the space that are saying how do I take my my data my personality and create

markets around it in a way that didn't exist before so one example I wrote a piece on this that maybe we can link in the show notes um on opinion markets and the general thesis there is people have opinions you know opinions are like everyone has one but like I have an opinion how do I make money on it like if for example one of the classic opinions in crypto is is are meme coins good or bad for crypto like there's no objective right answer answer but certainly people have views and that view and consensus will change over time depending on what happens with memes and so introducing opinion markets where people can now speculate on how social consensus so first identify and then how it evolve over time incredibly exciting we see a number of teams here building

and that's going to grow I think also people betting on their favorite creators so for example there's companies that are saying hey if you're a Mr Beast fan um or a milk Road fan how do you speculate on how many viewers their next episode is going to have let's say you had you know Michael sailor come on people like oh I'm gonna bet that it's gonna be a large number of viewers well right now there's no way to do that you might know the show you might have strong convictions in the show but you can't express your opinion on how that's going to go and so people starting to bet on social media I think is going to be incredibly exciting you can imagine just people on their phones just betting and and how many tweet you know likes something's going to get what kind of content is going to

be produced so I think just looking at every part of our life for right now there's no financial markets and in crypto we can build financial markets for anything because it's open permissionless infrastructure and so that is what I'm looking forward in 2025 especially on the private Market side where we're going to be trying to find these world-class Founders building these Primitives yeah I was I was just going to ask that is this more on the private Market side or is there projects that have tokens that are building the tokens aren't live yet for most of these but where I think it comes down down to is people betting on the markets themselves so just like there's no poly Market token people are still making money on poly Market I think likewise there's going to be these new types of

markets that are introduced and if you're early and aware there's going to be a lot of mispricings that can take place and I would be watching for those especially if you like betting on like people like betting on things they like the the problem with the stock market is it's hard to compete longterm against a Trader with six screens in like you know world class API feeds it's hard to compete long term but social media I bet there's things about crypto I know better than most people in the world and just likewise you probably know certain things better than most people in the world well you have it you have Alpha that you don't have in these other markets so that's really exciting and what I look forward to yeah I love that I love that take Carl been an absolute pleasure to have you on the show uh

hopefully we can get you back again soon really appreciate your time everybody listening in thanks for tuning in today we'll see you again tomorrow have a wicked awesome day you too as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free 5 minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you well making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one resource to help you invest successfully in crypto one final note this show is

for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day