Corporate Bitcoin buying, ETF inflows and the next pump with Lark Davis

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show that's as rare as finding someone who actually reads the terms and conditions I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by good friend and legendary crypto investor Lark Davis today's episode we're going to talk about the race to buy Bitcoin that is happening right now where's Bitcoin at and where are we going as corporate and institutions are piling in did you miss the last pump here's how you might get ahead of the next one we're going to talk about opportunities that we see and then we're also going to review some altcoin season indicators and talk about how you can position your portfolio to take advantage of opportunities also if you want to position yourself to take advantage of opportunities right now is Black Friday at milk Road it's our

biggest sale of the Year we're giving you 40% off Milk Road Pro Plus if you buy the annual plan will give you our investing master class which is valued at $500 for free we'll give it to you for free the discounts are crazy I can't believe we're doing this the Milkman has lost his if you go pro you're going to get so much but most importantly one of the things that I love that is not so well known is every week you're going to get where are we in the cycle indicators these are charts that show you where we are in the cycle and help you decide when to start to sell to take profits in this cycle the hardest thing for every investor to do and we want to help you guys do that so hit the QR code or hit the link in the show notes and go pro

today if you're not already before we jump in here from lar we just need to take a moment to hear from our sponsors who make the show possible do you own your data nope every post click and search you make is controlled and monetized by unseen Giants I've had enough it's time for navigate where their mission is to give back data ownership to you and share profits with you that's right money in your pocket how you ask first the navigate browser extension makes it easy to turn your everyday browsing into passive income second the data quest game where you can boost your earnings and help train their AI visit navigate. today to earn and own your data meet uphold a trading platform

that's changing the way you think about money imagine this earning up to 4.9% apy on your US dollar no catches no lockup periods and no fees and yes it's FDIC insured up to $25 million they offer access to over 300 digital assets which you can trade store and exchange with confidence knowing uphold operates with a 100% reserve and a transparent model create your account fund it with a few Taps and you're ready to go click the link in the description and join uphold today Lark my man what's going on feeling good man feeling good it's been

a crazy crazy time for Bitcoin over $90,000 just chilling over $90,000 who would have thought just relaxing old man Bitcoin on the rocking chair having a smoke chilling are goodes are good when Bitcoin chills over 990,000 uh okay let's start with uh Bitcoin is really heating up in the the race on the corporate side let's talk about that what's going on with corporations buying Bitcoin right now so there's two fascinating things going on right now it's the corporate side and actually the country side and those are both wildly imp F so on the country side or sorry on the company

side it's absolutely nuts what's going on right now so micro strategy they bought another almost five billion dollars worth of bitcoin and then immediately Michael sailor announces we're going to raise another 1.75 billion to buy more Bitcoin which is insane uh Marathon digital they're a Bitcoin minor interesting stock there by the way I don't own any but you know might be an interesting play Marathon digital they said they're going to raise 700 Mill and then they said they looked what Michael sailor did and they said crap we need to up our numbers so now they're raising a billion dollars to buy a Bitcoin so they mine Bitcoin they're also borrowing money to buy more Bitcoin and you have other smaller companies like um metap planet and similar scientific uh buying Bitcoin as well and

of course we have the Microsoft uh shareholder vote going on soon about whether or not Microsoft is gonna start buying Bitcoin if that happens that just breaks everything beyond belief I micro strategy has become this Bitcoin coin investment vehicle right and it's been very very successful the stock hits has hit new all-time highs after 25 years it's insane but if Microsoft starts buying Bitcoin it completely changes the game it shatters all existing thought processes and models like oh they Tesla yeah they're a technology company than buying Bitcoin okay fine oh micro strategy oh no Microsoft because when Microsoft does it Apple's got to do it

when Apple's got to do it everyone else is NVIDIA is going to have to get some Bitcoin everyone else is going to have to get some Bitcoin you're going to run out real fast and that's just half the picture because we we researched and recorded a video today about the country fomo going on and we know now what's going on is that there's so many countries currently mining Bitcoin confirmed you know the UAE Ethiopia uh Bhutan El Salvador Russia right all confirmed mining Bitcoin but here's the thing we've had a very few um different highlevel sources from people like David Bailey at Bitcoin magazine and these are guys who they don't really about this kind of stuff literally out there saying that there is

a country right now front running America's Bitcoin Reserve so this whole America strategic Bitcoin Reserve thing and you got to remember we we talked about this thing was in the last episode or the episode before that where all these Pro crypto politicians we had 250 proc crypto politicians that have been elected to get into the house and the Senate gamechanging because when that bill comes up to add Bitcoin as AIC Reserve asset Brian Armstrong and the guys over the Satoshi action fund like Dennis Porter and stuff like that these guys did some serious work on Flipping these seats into Pro crypto politician seats and it's all set up now for the potential for the American Bitcoin Reserve to actually happen and whether

it happens or not the fact is there is a country currently front running the United States on it Bitcoin strategic reserve a country that doesn't need to have Congressional approval that can just do it so that means it's probably someone that doesn't need checks and balances like the Saudis doing it or the qataris doing it or you know there's maybe the Swiss or the singaporeans but somebody's doing it because those guys said yeah we've got pretty strong confirmations that there's a country out there buying Bitcoin to front Run America which is the big game theory everybody's coming for it the corporations are coming coming for it the endowments are coming for it the Pension funds are coming for it Pennsylvania has announced that they're going to start buying it they have a $7

billion um uh State Sovereign wealth fund they're going to put 10% into Bitcoin the guys from I think it was Bitcoin magazine or was it Dennis supporter from um the stoia action fund said they've got at least 10 other states in the United States that are looking to do the same thing I mean holy crap guys this is insane how how early do you think can you can you somehow frame or quantify uh how early we are in terms of uh corporate Bitcoin in treasury countries buying Bitcoin uh in these institutional funds like there's so many categories here that we're talking about you think I don't know is there a way to

quantify that it's really hard to quantify and you have to look at every different category like in terms of like Sovereign wealth funds or stuff like that is very very small still in terms of uh Pension funds very very small still we had a few us States Pension funds about of Bitcoin in terms of Corp corporate adoption very small still you got just a handful of companies at this point globally that have jumped into the Bitcoin Waters right and again the fact that somebody like Microsoft one of the world's top five by market cap companies is talking about it that's absolutely insane because what happens when some Chinese companies see that or some European compan see that and we're going to see more companies hop on the Bitcoin

bandwagon it's only a matter of time and of course at the country level if America really does this every other Central Bank in the world is suddenly going to have to say to themselves well what's our Bitcoin strategy why don't we have any Bitcoin it's just imagine this imagine that gold was invented back in 2009 okay first time ever gold was invented everybody thought oh dumb medal who who needs needs this dumb metal Rock thing nobody wants that and then slowly but surely it gets more and more adoption and then suddenly the world's Global superpower says yeah we're gonna buy up you know a few percent of the supply of that new thing called gold well that's Bitcoin right now okay

Satoshi invented digital gold and it's here and it's real and people are paying attention let's go let's go let's go man this is so bullish okay let's take a quick look at the uh the ETF stat right now because man the Bitcoin ETF o almost 28 billion in total inflows or to Total Nets sorry and we've just seen since the election we've had two days of negative but we've had one day of over a billion two days of over a billion last week like just incredible numbers coming in the Bitcoin ETF what are you seeing here first off we have to underline a simple reality here is that these kind

of inflow numbers are shocking beyond belief because those billion doll days bought more than a month's worth of new minor emissions so one day wall just Wall Street not the countries that are buying not the corporat that are buy just Wall Street bought more than a month of new production you cannot keep having that happen and the price stay in the 90,000 range is so funny some somebody today was like all this bullish stuff happening and where's the price at like dubber at $90,000 what are you talking about the price is moving okay and it will move again as more of this starts to happen look these Bitcoin ETF inflows have been absolutely wild beyond belief this is the most successful ETF launch basically in history it surpassed go we

it took gold 10 15 years to get to 20 billion do bitcoin's already beaten it in one year less than a year it's wild we're at2 billion dollars of inflows already absolutely crazy things have happened with Bitcoin ETFs and I think it's only going to crazier and now that we have Bitcoin options that I think are listing tomorrow this only creates more demand for these products and things are gonna get even crazier let's go what about if we look at the ethereum ETF quickly I don't know if that was a a positive sound effect that you just gave us or a negative sound effect I think it's um it's a Jeopardy or reel of

Fortune I can't remember it's um my uh my stepmom watches one of those programs and I just hear it's like the this like the you have failed the sad sound I don't know I can't remember which one it is but I think it's funny anyway um look the reality is the ethereum ETFs have had nowhere near the level of success that Bitcoin ETFs have had for a variety of reasons um they launched at a much rougher time in the market Bitcoin ETFs were the narrative when they launched they launched immediately after approval whereas the SEC kind of screwed ethereum investors where they approved them and then all the hype that was built around that faded over the almost month or so before they actually got approved for trading

and there was no reason for that except that the SEC is a sore loser and was just being uh capricious about um their approval process so there's that okay and the ethereum ETFs came out at a very rough time sentiment wise in the market in the middle of summer which is usually a low volume low interest time anyway so there's all that working against it ethereum ETFs but but but of course ethereum ETFs will be bought obviously we're starting to see some inflows trickle in I imagine that's going to pick up pretty soon especially once we get a new SEC head because the current SEC head has denied the ability for these ETFs to run staking and when you allow these ETFs to have staking Revenue

suddenly you have a crypto ETF with a dividend and that becomes very very attractive as the current e uh dividend um well staking return is like uh 3 and a half% or something like that right so things get real exciting real fast in that situation and may get a lot more bid from Wall Street as a result of that so if we look at the uh uh Bitcoin chart right now I just got to get your thoughts on where you think bitcoin's going we're almost at 93,000 we're so close as we record here where do you think we go from here and any idea of how quickly we go here you think we got another pump coming before the end of the year I think it's very likely if you look back to how Bitcoin has reacted on

previous all-time high breaks and look you got to understand everything's lined up here okay we had a beautiful downtrend break basically the whole year has been in a downtrend we broke that downtrend definitively just a few weeks ago we have the macd on a very strong weekly uptrend and weekly uptrends tend to be very powerful signals for Bitcoin so we've had this beautiful pump and in any pre previous all-time high breaks minus the ETF one that was a bit of a a fugazi if you will it was just sort of this hyp driven move not a fundamental driven move right now we're dealing with a fundamental driven move because of everything we just talked about because nation states are buying because corporations are buying because ETFs are gobbling up dramatically more Bitcoin

the miners can possibly produce and at some point the whales just don't have any more to dump on the market and the price simply has to go up to meet the demand of buyers that's it it's just that simple L demand Mechanics for a finite asset so in the past when Bitcoin breaks out it tends to break out with some pretty strong moves and we've Consolidated here for around the last week or so around the $90,000 level the next move is probably brewing in the not so distant future and likely by the end of the year I would say we're going to be well over $100,000 I mean there's always some macro stuff that can derail the market okay nothing is certain I don't have a cryst the ball but if we can make an inference on potential price action

based on all the things we've talked about so far plus the reality of how Bitcoin tends to behave on all-time high breaks then seeing Bitcoin even at something like 120 or even as crazy is up to 150 in the next six weeks is not off the table because that's the exact kind of move that we made in 2020 we went from 20,000 to 42,000 in about four to six weeks okay so maybe it takes a little longer maybe we don't go quite as high as that but a significant move will continue to play out as all this stuff continues to light the fire under the market so if people missed out on the last pump and they're looking for the next

opportunity what are you thinking about where you think the next opportunity is it hey double down on bitcoin the there's the big pump there coming uh or do you think that we might see more others with altcoins out start to outperform bitcoin which we're already see in um in 2020 it was pretty interesting because when Bitcoin started and crossed over its previous all-time high from the 2017 cycle ethereum was still needed to go uh 140% higher in order to hit the previous alltime it was way way down right so we saw a pretty similar situation right now where eth is still big time under

obviously salana probably by the time you guys watch this maybe even hit a new high or is very very close to hitting a new high a lot of people saying that uh Solana is the ethereum of the cycle certainly been acting like it price-wise whereas ethereum is kind of a bit of an old hat right now and it's going to perform and it'll get up to 10 to 15,000 of the cycle Peak but it definitely doesn't have that sort of uh edgy excitement that it did in 2020 and that salana does now in 2024 so that's something to think about as well um in terms of doubling down on bitcoin right now I mean look there's it's always good to buy Bitcoin I just want to say that it's always good to buy Bitcoin if you have that sort of long-term mentality where you're just

you know you're cashing out of Fiat and you're cashing into Bitcoin because you want to own digital gold fantastic it's always a good time to buy buy if you're taking a long time uh Horizon however however there's two things to keep in mind my general price prediction for the cycle has been around 200k now that may get upset by all this nation state fomo like if America really does announce that they're going to buy a million Bitcoin over the next five years and micro strategy rushes their buys and tries to get their front running of America and then the Saudis are front running the Americans and the qataris are front running the the Saudis and the Americans

because they don't want to be left behind like suddenly things get a bit crazier than you think they might get otherwise I've always felt like 200k is on a technical level a very reasonable area maybe 250k is a peak okay so there's always potential that things get even crazier although I want to just highlight that that's even dangerous mentality because this is what happens every CLE where people say well because of this that or the other thing it's just going to go so much crazier than everybody expects and then it doesn't Okay so there's that to keep in mind however that gives you a sort of a a base case scenario okay let's not say like the super mega mega bull case and if we do go super super make a bull case that's different but base case scenario of bitcoin's going to go Max 200% from here

Max Max right maybe even a little less 170% 150% something like that so in that situation where Bitcoin goes from 93k to 200 250k guess what altcoins are going to outperform dramatically versus that right both ethereum and salana probably have a two and a half to three to one beta versus that Bitcoin move you're going to see stuff like dog with hat and Brett and all these sort of big meme coins or even a lot of big layer one blockchains that are getting a lot of Focus right now whether that be Aptos or SE or um yeahi I mean so's gone absolutely crazy I mean it's G crazy this is the

thing if you've been holding SOI this year you've outperformed most of the crypto sector right so there's always these outperformers in crypto and if you focus on where people are paying attention and where the hype is going you can outperform Bitcoin but just sort of passively holding stuff you're not necessarily going to outperform bitcoin there's a lot of altcoins from the last cycle that have performed dramatically badly versus Bitcoin in particular just underperform the market more broadly yeah if we pull up I pull up this chart here uh showing altcoin weekly trading volume and look at the last week this is uh this is last week just a massive candle compared to uh previous it basically been hovering in

the 50 to a billion to 50 to 100 billion range and then all of a sudden it just spiked up to 300 billion in allcoin trading volume last week clearly altcoin season feels like it's here it's coming like where where do you think we're at it's on the way um it never happens as quickly as people want it to but we will see massive upside volatility for altcoins and again like I said um the altcoin move tends to lag about four to six weeks behind major Bitcoin moves okay so in that situation I know you might think well some altcoins have really really moved in the last week like you ain't seen nothing yet man like

some of these things are GNA get marked up so much higher and basically you're going to see a lot of sort of Burge Khalifa style uh patterns forming up and that volume chart is very indicative of that because essentially what you're seeing this is like the test pump that $300 billion move that's the test pump because when the market gets totally cra crazy we're going to see trillions of dollars a week in volume in the altcoin markets and things are going to go a lot crazier than people expect especially if you haven't been here for a market cycle or if you just have such intense PTSD from everything happened in 2022 I get it man I get it I do it was a painful year okay but you got to flip you got to flip your bias Because unless World War II happens tomorrow or the Great

Depression is declared tomorrow which neither of those things seem super likely at the moment then we're probably going to be okay it's so let's hope neither of those things happen anytime hope not hope yeah I think a Black Swan event is always possible but it seems like uh I mean hey you can't plan for that so plan for what is in front of us and what's in front of us is one of the greatest investment opportunities of a generation over the next year when we look at within altcoins altcoins is obviously I almost don't like the term altcoins anymore because like it's the most broad term at this point it worked in past Cycles but now you get into like is ethanol coin is Salon all coin and then you can go down way down the curve uh

within altcoins within these l1s uh any any particular narratives that you like or particular tokens that you like you and I were talking about near on the AI side before we started recording today maybe we could chat about that or if there's anything else yeah I think there's a lot of competition going on right now in the layer one blockchain space which is obviously you we know about meme coins we know all this stuff that's all fun and and a good time time right but it's actually interesting because every single cycle it's fascinating to see but every single cycle there are a new host of layer one blockchains that come around and have massive performance and you can look back in 2017 and it was nem and it was Dash and it was eos and then

in um 2020 we had all kinds of new ones pop up as well that was salana when salana came around that's was when Avalanche came around now we have all these new hot blockchains s Aptos we have the Phantom Rebrand to Sonic going on which is a whole new blockchain essentially we have an near as well which I think is very very interesting when a lot of these coins are pretty new they haven't had a bull market yet so they have that sort of shiny new coin Edge still and I think the near protocol is a very interesting coin now I own this by the way just know full transparency for people um I own near protocol and bought a whole bunch recently actually swapping my polka dot position for it just to freshen up my damn portfolio know I was looking at

polka dot no shade on polka dot they they're those guys are trying so hard to deliver good Tech and they are getting Traction in a whole bunch of places but I looked at the price and I was just like man this is insane because the price of polka dot at the time that I sold it for a year was um almost 50% under the FTX crash and I was like man that was the bottom of the bare market and the price is down almost 50% and like bitcoin's hitting new highs literally right now like this is crazy so I was like you know what it's time to just just psychologically fresh and bags up here and I really liked near protocol because the guys who built near have always been AI nerds and they started near protocol as an AI blockchain that

was the intent right and they had to Pivot a bit because it was Market wasn't ready for AI yet now they are and so they announced recently an investment of a few hundred million dollars into um basically some onchain AI stuff that's going to be doing like 1.4 trillion inferences or something something crazy bigger than um bigger than uh meta llama which is nuts and so this is really amazing to see so this is kind of narrative combination if you will right so layer one blockchains are always hot new ones are always hot in a new cycle this one's got AI on top of it right so it's an AI blockchain and I think there's a similar thing we're I've got my research assistant going deep into AI

meme coins right now it's a similar idea you're taking the two hottest narratives and combining them together near protocol I think fits that as well you're taking hot new shiny layer one blockchain coin plus very real AI stuff not AI a lot of the AI tokens are just total BS you got to keep it real but this is like real AI from real AI devs who got into the blockchain space right so I think there's a lot of interesting stuff that could come out of that and potential for uh good performance of that particular token but AI mean coins also a very interesting space to L to watch we've seen seen such an explosion of those recently and of course the big ones like uh goat right but there's so many interesting new competitors coming up that are even more

AI even more onchain even more Immaculate Conception and so it gets really interesting to see all this stuff happening but that's again a perfect Nexus of the two literal hottest topics and the two topics to get the biggest mind share meme coins and AI yeah aome to pay attention to C curious with the the nearby that you just made what's what's the TR what's the uh the exit plan for that because the one thing that is so apparent to me and having gone through Cycles before is you can really get caught in holding your bag especially with new l1s or L ones that you know don't have necessarily the traction that an ethereum or a salana have so what's

the trade with with near sure I mean look the every single non-bitcoin coin that I own is going to be cut at the end of the cycle every single one there you go everything right so this is not immune to that uh I like it I think it's it's a good play I think it's got good traction for the cycle um you know maybe it goes as high as like 50 bucks or something like that which is about a 10x for my entry price fantastic okay it's not probably massive outperformance versus other layer ones but I like the idea I like what they're doing and I think it's going to be a fun coin to hold for the cycle but make no mistake about it and this is maybe my final word of advice for everybody here today when that bare Market comes and it

will come don't don't let anything fool you into thinking that it's not going to come it's going to come and it's going to come real fast one day it's going to be everybody super mega bullish everything's going up forever next day everything's down 30% and that's it it's over oh you'll get one more pump back up as sort of a a final rally before the real hits the fan but you'll need to get out because when the bare Market comes it'll be horrific beyond belief and all these new paradigm of money coins are going to go down 90% the meme coins oh we're going to short the crap out of some meme coins when the market turns man all these meme coins worth tens of billions of dollars which will probably be quite a few of them by the end of the cycle oh they're gonna go

down so hard these things are going to go from like $30 billion doll market caps to like $30 million market caps I'm serious it's going to be nuts because in spite of the Cults and everything else let me see how good your cult is when the price is down 99 % really and the bare Market's here and everybody's hating everything these things are going to suffer massively okay so don't delude yourself into thinking it's only going to go up forever because it's not and I'm saying this at a time when I'm Mega bullish on the market okay I just want everybody to be very very clear about that we're in the start phase of the final phase of the market cycle where you've got three six if you're very lucky 12 months of wild outperformance of cryptocurrencies

okay it might be shorter than you expect it might be a longer than you expect but the end will come and it'll come really really fast and hard okay so have an exit plan in mind okay don't try to perfectly time the top try to just get enough out of it and you have to sell or you're gonna lose it all lar you're H perfectly teeing me up for the promo to buy our milk Ro Pro Black Friday discount right now because we give you guys the indicators to know where we are as Lark said we're in the final stage of the cycle and that stage could go for 12 months could go for six months and you don't know when and so we give you guys the indicators if you go pro you get the indicators every week telling you where

we are and how close we are to the end and we let you guys know so you don't get caught hold in the bag Lark thanks so much for joining us today appreciate your time as always every I got one final thing to tell you you can't get caught with your pants down if you don't wear any pants okay so you're going to have to explain that one to me that's it we're leaving it there all I can think about is my one-year-old son and how he's never wearing any pants I'm like yeah I guess you know he's got a diaper on maybe I should start wearing a diaper lar thanks so much everybody thanks for listening in have a wicked awesome day as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us if you don't

miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free 5 minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one resource to help you invest successfully in crypto one final note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day