ConsenSys wins against SEC, Core dev updates & more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #784 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone welcome to another episode of the Lego refu where C the latest news in E system I'm your host Dano to the 20th of June 2024 right everyone let's get into it so apologies for missing the last couple of days of episodes everyone I've been sick you can probably hear it in my voice I've had a mild cold not not a fever or anything just a sore throat and a cough which obviously doesn't allow me to do the refuel if I'm just in a coughing fit the entire time that's not going to make for a very good episode um but yeah hopefully I'll be you know back I guess like tomorrow and I won't have to take another day off I'm feeling okay it's just I've still got a little bit of a sore throat and a cough but that's why I missed the last two days of episodes but

back today and I'm going to dive right into the news so I think the biggest news over the last two days was this announcement from consensus that the SEC has pulled its case against consensus so basically retracted its case against consensus about investigating if eth is a security uh or investigating ethereum 2.0 and you can see here consensus put a tweet out announcing this now obviously this is big news because it's just another win for I guess crypto and another loss for the SEC the SEC is no stranger to losses I put a tweet out saying that if I'm bullish on anything when it comes to Gary gendler it's his ability to lose crypto related cases and it seems like he just keeps racking up these losses now of course technically

this isn't a quote unquote loss it's not like they went to court and the SEC lost in court um but it is a loss in the sense that they brought this case against consensus um and essentially was basically Bally a few weeks later we're like okay well I don't think we're going to do that anymore you know we don't think we're going to do that anymore let's just pull this case now it's kind of funny because you look back four weeks ago or maybe you know you could say like one to two months ago the fud around eth and ethereum was like at its peak right everyone was going on about how E's going to get classified as a security there were all these rumors flying that the SEC was trying to classify e as a security and people were saying oh the EFS are going to get

denied because of it and then of course you were call if you were watching back you know a couple months ago the whole time I was saying that we literally had nothing to go off except of rumors and speculation and quote unquote sources right there was nothing official um and then obviously the E ETFs were approved right like uh like I I you know a lot of us um in the Ean Community believe that they would be approved and then uh this consensus suit or this SEC suit against consensus has now being retracted I don't think that's a coincidence to be honest I think that the SEC while they haven't explicit stated that they don't believe e this is security for reasons that I believe are quite obvious if you kind of dig into dig into the um the

background here there you recall that the SEC has Active cases against Kraken coin bass and binance over them being unregistered Securities exchanges as basically saying that there's a list of these crypto assets their Securities and uh that's why they're going after these these exchanges because they're not registered Securities Brokers now of course if they were were to capitulate on eth and basically say that eth's not a security that acts as precedent for these other tokens so they don't want to set any precedent here at least that's my understanding but it doesn't matter at this point what matters is the fact that even though they're not explicitly saying that they don't think eth is um is not a security their actions speak for themselves approving the Futures

ETFs approving the spot ETFs going after consensus and then retracting this case here the fact that eth has been treated as a commodity by the cftc for many many years now the fact that you know I think the SEC made a case against coinbase where they said that ethereum or eth could be considered a security or a token can be considered a security if it has an ecosystem around it well if you were really you know believe that if you thought that that was a strong case to be made then you know why did you uh basically go after consensus right so I mean like if you take all this together it's just really really positive for ethereum it's really positive on the regulatory front here and I should actually um um I guess like uh back backjack a little bit here and make

clear that the cons the SEC um filed a Wells notice against consensus I don't think they ever actually filed a suit against them it was a Wells notice that basically said hey we're going to sue you and then consensus was like well screw you we're going to sue you first and that's what they did and then obviously consensus doing that basically uh I don't I'm not going to say it scared the SEC but they're probably like oh wow okay let's back off here uh for whatever reason it is now of course that doesn't mean that SEC can't come back another time against consens or other ethereum related companies and try to you know classify there security and so on and so forth I just don't think that's going to happen I I really don't think that's going to happen we've seen the political wind shift we've seen the

shift in you know tradire getting really involved with ethereum now with the spot ETF but beyond that you know tokenization that Larry think's talking about all the time the fact that they want to build a new tokenize Stock Exchange I mean the the the big money is basically saying like this stuff's here to stay uh and this stuff is stuff that we want to build on going to innovate in this area so essentially like stop with it I think that's essentially what they're saying and I'm not one for conspiracy theories but I don't I don't know if there's been like actual communication between some of these big money players and the regulators and the politicians but for sure there would have to be something you know you you can imagine that even if there's no direct communication Larry think putting so much of his weight

behind crypto would be signal enough to the politicians to basically say hey guys this crypto thing is real you know the tokenization things real there's a lot of money here uh stop with it so even if there's nothing explicitly said I feel like there is a lot of I guess um you know background stuff going on here which is incredibly positive uh for all of crypto but for ethereum as well because remember I spoke I think a few weeks ago on the refu where I basically said that the fact that eth now has regulatory Clarity means that it opens eth up to a bunch of different investors that couldn't even buy eth before on an exchange like not even just waiting for the ETF they couldn't uh at risk of eth being labeled to security or something like that couldn't justify the

risk because to them it's like okay well if we buy eth right and these are the most conservative of investors by the way guys like these are Financial um advisors and people who manage other people's money and this money is like not looking for higher risk kind of things looking for very lowrisk conservative Investments here but when you looked at eth like not only did you have the general risk of crypto but then you had the regulatory risk on top where essentially if you know these people believed that the SEC was going to going to label uh ether security that would mean that liquidity for eth would dry up because a lot of the places that listed eth would have to delist eth and then it would be very very hard to uh essentially kind of get out of the position but also you would expect E's

price to absolutely crater if that was to happen so that's a huge risk there so that risk is pretty much gone now even as I said even though the SSA is isn't explicitly saying that ether is not a security there actions speak louder than their words ever could so that risk is now gone which means that eth is opened up to a bunch of new investors here not just via the ETFs but you know but via everything basically and ethereum as a technology is also opened up here so that's really really cool to see so I'm super excited of course about that about all of that I'm very very excited to see crypto racking up more regulatory wins and I can't wait to see us uh do more there now of course on the topic of ETFs we had a little bit of movement this

week on the s-1 forms so Nate jasi said Here Come the spot e S1 amendments this one for bitwise assume others will trickle in over the next few days so from what I can see there weren't really any major changes here there was a few kind of little changes essentially with these things uh to be expected obviously because we know that the eth ETFs are basically a copy paste of the BTC ETFs because they don't have staking so it's pretty much the same thing same custody you know same disclosures and so on and so forth here uh but I mean this is just more positive news I guess but at the same time it's like nothing surprising we all know the e are going live for trading very very shortly now like within the next two weeks probably maybe

even sooner than that you know there is a timeline where these go um trading next week or even like there is actually a timeline where the these things start trading uh tomorrow Friday but like probably not but you know there not it's not impossible but I would say that you know we could see this next week essentially we don't have to wait until July 2nd or July 8th the two dates that have been thrown around here it could happen next week I would prefer it to happen in July to be honest I have busy week next week and I don't want to I don't want it to happen and then like I'm glued to my computer cuz I got so much other stuff I need to be doing and I get fomo sometimes so me me personally just like selfishly would like it to happen on like July 2nd or July 8th I

don't care if my predictions wrong it's more the fact that I'd love to be able to just sit on my computer and be locked in without having to be distracted by things but next week I'm quite busy with real life stuff so you know if it goes live whatever I'll still have my phone I'll be like oh you know look what's happening here what's happening on Twitter what's happening with the priz so on and so forth there uh but yeah as I said like this stuff is fully expected no surprises here and I'm not expecting any surprises guys once these are all approved and everything's go we will see these things start trading within one day of that and I'm most curious to see what the inflows are like that's still my number one kind of question right now is what the inflows are going to be like

for eth especially versus BTC now as I explained the other day I don't expect them to be as bombastic as BTC because the eth ETFs are launching in a very very different environment but there was actually a um a kind of ETF that was applied for can't remember who applied for this I think it was today or yesterday where they wanted to do a BTC and eth ETF in the same vehicle here now they weighted at uh 7030 so basically market cap weighted 70% BTC 30% eth now I think a lot of speculation around the eth ETF inflows is basically that they're going to see you know 30% may give or take a few percent right of inflows because that's just market cap weighted that's how these financial advisors are going to think about these

things they're like okay well if we have you know total of like 5% allocated to crypto out of a whole portfolio probably not even 5% they're probably at like 2% or something like that if we have 2% of of um our portfolio or of all the money that we have um allocated to assets going into crypto well then 70% of that is going to go into BTC 30% into eth and I think that's going to be like that uh for the foreseeable future and there will be rebalancing here so if the E BTC ratio goes up and E market cap becomes a greater share of btc's market cap you can see that shift maybe like 6040 or 50/50 in an ideal world I want to see it at 5050 and it's not too far from here I think if the eth BTC ratio was to go up to about 0.08 is

that would be 50/50 split there so how cool would that be all the money going into the ETFs would be split 50/50 here or most of it so you know and we'll actually get to see the effects of that on eth as as both a smaller cap asset but also a much more scarce asset you know people go on about BTC being this really really scarce asset but hey eth is even scarcer than that because of the fact that we have um ultrasound money right with the um net deflationary burn eth is a productive asset that gets locked up in in things like staking so this is vanilla eth guys like you got to remember as well people say oh you know there's eth locked up in staking but people can just buy the lsts so you know in in reality it's not locked it's like

okay that that's true for like crypto natives it's true for people that are more involved on centralized exchanges maybe but it's not true for the ETFs because the ETFs can't buy that the ETFs can only buy vanilla eth they can't buy lsts now of course you know market makers whoever else uh or people who want to take profits can sell the lsts to eth and then eth gets unlocked and sold into the market but we'll see that happening through the through the secondary markets or through the beacon chain as well and people withdraw eth from there so when it comes to the actual eth being bought here uh it's coming from the exchanges and the exchanges don't have much eth left uh and it's not just exchanges it's also just like the V eighth pool generally but it is incredibly scarce pool here especially below all-time high I mean I

I don't know like I I'm not going to call anyone I I know I tweeted out about this a little while ago where I said anyone selling below all-time high is crazy I I kind of that was a bit tongue and cheek you're not crazy for doing that you take profits when you need to I'm not going to judge you on that but I just don't imagine there's many people wanting wanting to take profits before alltime high on E especially because it's like a thing of well you know BTC already went to alltime high it's going to get there and then we expect all this bullish energy to come over the next maybe year or so uh it doesn't make sense to sell here if you expect eth to go to 10 you know 15 20K I'm not saying it's going to happen but as a calculus

that you do selling at the 5K alltime High when you know there is a a good chance it could go to 10K and Beyond from here it doesn't really make much sense there and of course this is going into timing the market and stuff like that but hey a lot of people think like this and I'm trying to put put myself in the mindset of those people because for me I don't really think about this because you guys know I'm not planning to sell my eth so for me I look at the price I'm like okay yeah whatever cool cool um but I like I like the price going up for many different reasons as I've explained before not just for myself because I own eth obviously but it just it's better for the ethereum ecosystem for E to become more and more valuable and I don't think there's any

doubt that that's going to happen there but yeah we're going to see what the uh what the flows are like when these things start trading I'm super excited to finally get an answer to that question and hopefully put to bed that narrative that was started by um one of the Bloomberg guys that eat these small potatoes compared to BTC I don't think so and you know maybe it's not going to happen in the first month or few months or something where eth might not have the flows people expect them to have but over the coming years I do expect eth to have a very strong flow uh you know especially even compared to BTC because it's really just going to be eth and BTC for a while here so I'm excited for all of that but anyway enough on that sort of stuff let's move on to some cordev

related stuff so Terren has compiled an FAQ for the top epbs questions so he's going to be adding to this I think this is like a living document here this is quite detailed so if you have been interested in epbs what it is I mean I've talked about it a bunch of times on the rafield before but maybe you're still confused about it maybe you don't know what all the moving parts are I certainly don't I'm certainly not an expert on it I'm just mentioning it for you guys because it is something important that's been in research for quite a while and may make it into the protocol sometime next year uh so yeah you can go give this FAQ a read it's not too long uh but it does answer the most pressing questions that I've seen on on Twitter about this so definitely go

check this out I'll link it in in the YouTube description below uh but not much more to say other than that since it's just a post that I want you guys to check out there uh second we have a new uh round of updat from Josh Rudolph uh on verical Implement implementation or vericle tree implementation here a lot of stuff happening guys in the in the background here I know that vericle doesn't get too much attention because of the fact that it's still pretty far away to go live on mainnet it's probably going to go live I mean well we hope it could go live late next year so it's still quite quite far away here and it's also not something that can be considered I guess user user facing you guys know I like to bucket things into like protocol only versus user facing or

not protocol only but like protocol facing versus user facing updates uh this is definitely protocol facing but at the same time it has a lot of Downstream effects for users so that's why I'm excited about it and it's also something that's been coming for quite a while uh as well there so yeah you can go check out all these updates in Josh's tweet I'll link it in the YouTube uh description below for you to do so it is quite uh long tweet here but it gives you a lot of uh you know context and update on what's happening in something that you know you may not be paying that much attention to but I think Josh is the best follow when it comes to veral trees right now so definitely go follow him and check out his tweet all right so something that kind of came out of nowhere and this is news

from like an hour ago so Leia zero is doing their token airdrop today they're like a bridging protocol I I'm not an expert on them I haven't I I don't talk about them very much on on the the refuel um and I'm not talking about them today to promote their air drop or anything like that what I want to talk about is the fact that 10 minutes before claims went live for the layer zero token they announced that they are going to donate a portion or I guess like all of um these minting fees or these claiming fees from the token claim to the protocol Guild so they're estimating that this is going to result in $18.5 million donated to the protocol Guild now the way this works is basically to claim your zro tokens or your layer zero

tokens users must donate 10 cent in usdc usdt or native eth per zro token that's really new I don't think I've seen a project do this before but also just what it's it's weird right like for me like I'm very happy that Leo zero is doing this but I haven't really seen layer zero be like I guess you could call it ethereum aligned in terms of uh signaling that they're all about public goods and they're all about you know the protocol Guild and stuff like that I haven't seen that in the past so that's why it's kind of come as a surprise to me um secondly the fact that they announced this like 10 minutes before claims open it's not a rug but like come on guys you could have announced it a bit sooner than that like it's it's a bit random that they did that I just

thought it was out of nowhere and and it just a bit weird to me and thirdly here it's interesting that they've done it per token if I'm reading this correctly if you had like 100 zro to claim for example you would have to pay $10 in uh in one of these tokens which goes to the protocol Guild in order to claim the full amount so it's not just for that 100 it's not 10 cents for the 100 tokens it's 10 cents per token which is obviously $10 here so an interesting approach um and another thing I think users were a little bit upset about where they're just like okay one why did you announce this so so you know uh so late I guess and and 10 minutes before uh the um the claims went live uh and two why is it per token as well uh so I

mean I'm not really complaining too much here because I do enjoy that this is not going to the team this is going to the protocol Guild but yeah there are a little bit of funny things here that could have been done better so you know that I'm just putting this out there for any teams listening to to the refuel or for any people out there who are working with teams that are doing a token and want to do something like this I think it's an interesting mechanism but the execution needs to be done better and by the mechanism I mean the mechanism of getting people to donate to the protocol Guild via token claiming is probably shouldn't be per token that's not really going to work for everything I think ler zero doesn't have like a huge supply or something like that like imagine if you

have a protocol that has like a 10 billion um a 10 billion Supply and there's like I don't know a billion of that is being air dropped that's head math $100 million or something like that uh now that would be cool to go to the protocol Guild but I don't know if you I don't know if users are going to f out that much collectively for these tokens uh maybe maybe in the height of the bull market they will but it just feels very kind of weird there so I think that per token probably doesn't make sense but this can be experimented with you could basically do a thing where it's like okay well you'll do a claim and essentially with that claim you'll send like $1 to the protocol Guild uh and then uh you'll be able to claim all of your tokens now let's just say you have

like I don't know 600,000 addresses like the recent ZK sync airdrop that's $600,000 that goes to the protocol Guild yes it's less than what you would have done per token but it feels I guess like better overall right like I don't know it just feels more honest overall um and I should mention here that this as I said like this is the first time I've seen this done for a token uh kind of airdrop but this has been done by the uh pup Community for quite a while now so you guys will know that a lot of the times when you're claiming a pup especially if you're doing it uh from E Stak during their kind of live stream calls that they do for ethereum Network upgrades essentially what they do is they say hey can you donate a small amount to this address and then we'll

send you your pup so these things can be experimented with and definitely it speaks to what vitalic was going on about I think a few weeks ago he basically said that yeah it's fine to do like permissionless stuff on chain like celeb coins meme coins but it would be really cool if a portion of that was donated to the protocol Guild because you're doing like regen Finance rather than just like pure Degen Finance here uh and I think you know layer zero is what they've done here definitely falls into that where obviously people are wanting this token because they're speculating on it uh they've been airdrop farming it so why not get or direct some of it to towards the protocol Guild I'm all for that but I think this mechanism generally should definitely be experimented with more and should definitely be um uh I guess like

uh iterated on more in a way that doesn't make it feel like the users are being slided or it's you know dishonest or it's 10 minutes before the claim goes live there just yeah as I said like I I like the idea overall here the execution leaves a lot to be desired now one other thing on the layer zero air drop I wanted to point out as well so this is happening on um arbitrum 1 and actually if you go to roll up. WTF which tracks the real time usage of uh of l2s or and l3s on ethereum you can actually see that arbitrum 1's TPS is at 54 at time of recording I saw this Spike to 100 before and I think it went even higher than that now this is where the roll up.

WTF website comes in handy and is really really interesting is when you can actually know that there's a massive event happening on one of these uh rollups and you can go here and see what the realtime TPS looks like and where it kind of goes to uh which I thought was really really cool now um on this website as well I do want to point out that you might might see at the top left here there like 300 TPS across all of these um chains right now um the number one chain is is z uh you can see here which is doing over 100 TPS this is not an L2 this is not even a rollup this is an L3 on top of arbitrum 1 using offchain da I would love on the website to be able to get rid of l3s and just have l2s or get rid of l2s and just have

l3s and kind of um filter out those sorts of things because and L3 and L2 are are very different uh especially when it when it comes to having offchain da as well and on that note as well I'd love to filter out everything that's not a true rollup it's not using ethereum L1 for for data availability here so we'll see they're going to keep updating this site I'm sure that's going to be a feature that that gets put there or or or something that gets put there soon uh but yeah this is my new favorite site to track basically anything happening in real time on on rollups I don't think there has been something like this before uh so yeah really glad that this exists uh for for for this right now all right speaking of l2s bases gas limit has been raised yet again so as of

yesterday the average fees for different types of transactions on base collapsed again and a uniso trade is now very very cheap it is a fifth of a cent here usdc transfer is almost as low as a tenth of a Cent and an eth transfer is even lower than that I believe if I'm looking at this correctly it's like 12 120 or something of a scent so very very cheap guys like extremely cheap here uh and it's great to see that Bas is continuing to raise their gas limit in order to scale out the execution side of things since data is not the bottleneck for base and hasn't been for quite a while and isn't the bottleneck for any rollups right now because blobs are near capacity but they don't you know they're not like over capacity for long periods

of time I remember I think on the last refuel I highlighted that we were over capacity um because of the ZK sink air drop and you can actually see here on Hill's dashboard that we're over capacity right now again so we're over Target I should say so over the three three blobs per block Target but this is due to I believe the air drop of layer zero because it's happening on Arbitron 1 there but you can see that we're we're hugging the target guys like we're you know some days we're like spiking a little bit briefly over it coming back down but we're basically there and we're not even in like a I guess like volatile period right now you prices are ranging it's sideways action happening right now yeah there's some activity here and there but I mean once that activity starts picking up even a little bit

we're going to be permanently over the target here so that's going to be very interesting to see what happens with the fees then because then the fee B neck again goes to data which l2s themselves or the rollups themselves do not have control over anymore or essentially don't have direct control over it because they don't have control over blobs uh they can't just edit and the blobs as they see fit but they do have control over how often they post blobs they have control over the compression that they do on the blobs and other kind of tactics that they can use to make sure that blob footprint is lower in order for feast to be overall lower here but yeah guys but like we're hugging it right now it's just it's crazy just seeing how it's it's grow grow grown so steadily too it just really is showing

once again that the rollup thesis the you know with couple with blobs couple with the full dank shoting row map is really playing out in a beautiful way and you know I'm I'm actually curious to see what this looks like in in 5 10 years like is offchain Da just made obsolete One Day by this I don't think so necessarily but I do think offchain da da is a niche uh it's it's commoditized already or da generally is commoditized but I think that offchain da ends up being a niche and maybe it really just exists for those really I guess like I'm not going to call it like high performance need use cases or maybe that's that's the way to put it like gaming for example and nft stuff maybe it's just reserved for that um but other than that yeah I don't really see

offchain da being like this huge thing uh not and and not something that generates huge amounts of Revenue either I feel like uh ethereum L1 is going to be that especially with the full dang shotting road map for the most valuable l2s out there the most valuable uh kind of rollups generally but yeah anyway um cool to see this cool to see bass raising their gas limit again they're going to keep doing this uh as as time goes on all right so last up here on the L2 front as well Tao as you guys know is a base rollup and they have they permissionless as well which means that anyone can uh propose on propos a tyo block so it's not just one centralized sequencer that's doing this uh there are

currently 12 unique proposers that are permissionless propo proposing tyo blocks so this I guess like in a roundabout way not in like the full definite way but in a in a roundabout way in like a proof of concept way should kill the fud of centralized sequences because like it's not difficult for us to decentralize these things and once they're they're out there people want to propose blocks they want to be uh sequences I want to permissionless Le propose blocks here now of course Tao is a bit different because it is a base rollup so it's using the L1 for proposals um but that doesn't mean that people can't uh with with a sequencer when when it's O open source and when it's permissionless people can't run the sequencer and do the same thing here so yeah I mean this

is just very cool again once again like uh I guess um uh plays out with that proves out that thesis I should say on um on what we're seeing here with the l2s and I'm just going toing bring up L2 beat here as well because uh if you kind of look at I'm going to go down to to Tao here Tao is definitely uh not full green yet as you guys know full green requires uh stage two decentralization they're not even stage one yet they're stage uh zero right now um but they do have the permissionless validation so it's it's when you when you look at these things and when you look at the stages you have to look at the pie chart because different uh layer twos will have different sections of the pie chart filled out which may or may not make them you know stage zero or stage one or

stage two you can see here that optimism actually has four out of five green on op main net arbitrum 1 has three out of five green with one yellow and one red but op uh main net is only considered stage one still the same as arbitrum because they've got this red exit window here so there's no exit window essentially um for op mainnet right now there's not none of that for Arbitron one either and the state validation the reason why it is orange here or yellow here is because it's not permissionless so there's a lot of nuance here and you should definitely check out L2 beat for that Nuance um but yeah and there's a lot Nuance behind what Tao is doing as well so I just thought it was cool I just wanted to highlight that for you

guys I think that's very very uh important to keep the I guess like pressure on the teams as well I keep highlighting their competitors doing this too because we need to decentralize out the l2s we're on that path to get there but we shouldn't rest until it's actually uh actually happened here so yeah but again I think that's going to be it for the news but but there's a but I've got a few minutes here I wanted to talk a little bit about the markets again not too long about this because I don't like talking about the markets too much as you guys know but one thing I will say is that I was looking at I guess the chart today long-term chart the actually the long-term BTC chart going all the way back to 2012 I believe

it was or 2013 and the reason I was doing this was because there's this I guess like very popular adage within financial markets generally but definitely within crypto where during this summer northern hemisphere summer period the market tends to be quiet generally and this even happens during Raging Bull market so if you go back all the way to like 2012 and you look at what's happening during the summer there it's you know it's it's mostly kind of sideways yeah you go back and you look at 2013 which by the way was a Raging Bull Market um BTC went up to $160 in April then came down to uh $73 so went down

50% uh more than 50% by July and then creeped back up and didn't get back to 160 until October so from April to October keep these keep these months in mind Guys April to October Med here was going sideways in a Raging Bull Market mind you like 2013 was a was a raging bull market and then let's just skip ahead to the next one I've got the chart in front of me here maybe I should bring the the chart up for you guys to see it on your your screen here so I'm just looking at the the BLX which looks at the alltime BTC chart on the on the weekly here so if we go to uh 2017 I believe it is here so 2017 you you kind of look what happens here like it's not as as bad as it was in like 2013 uh but

in 2017 you can see that the price from like June here to around I guess October it's not doing too much it's not going like strictly sideways but it's kind of like struggling right you can see here that from the the top to the to the basically top here it's up like 50% so it's not up that much but then after that it went up like over almost 600% essentially uh to to end the year out there and then you go into I guess the next uh period which is uh 2020 here sideways again right and now now in in this year again we are sideways that whole period there so the reason I bring this up is because usually during as I said usually during those summer months particularly if you want to take a wide band here and go April to to October

it's not very volatile it's not very I guess like exciting within the crypto ecosystem because of the fact that people are Outdoors doing things because it's warmer right it's they're not stuck at home doing you know and it's not colder at home now of course I'm just looking at BTC here because you're going to have periods of outperformance in other assets during summer as well it doesn't apply to all assets equally but I trade BTC as like the the index both BTC and ether is the index for the whole crypto Market um uh generally so when you look at that that's that's a good way I think to to look at it there um but in saying that and the reason why I bring this up is because if you imagine that this is accumulation here on BTC like I'm looking at the period from I

guess where is this from from March to today which has been 105 days if you assume that this is going to last till I don't know not October because it'll started in March let's go to like September so or yeah I'm inan the start of September here so that's 182 days there's another 82 days ahead of us if you assume that BTC is going to do that based on historical patterns just go sideways a bit and then Treck up from there that is kind of very close now and it can probably start going up again before that especially given that we have a lot of things on the horizon uh that are bullish like obviously the E ETF but also possible rate Cuts in macro which tends to make things bullish for people that trade based on that news and so on and so forth so when you look at

this the tldr here of why I'm bringing this up is that there is no need to be B we're literally it may not be the fouryear cycle but we're basically playing out similar kind of Market cycles that we've had in the past just on a rather accelerated timeline at least on BTC due to the ETFs and then when it comes to the other assets I mean eth is the same eth mostly kind of is on the same footing as BTC once it has the ETFs it'll be on equal footing here if I go to eth USD I mean the chart very much looks very similar to BTC like you can see here it's very similar to BTC and then you can even look at like others which is all of the um no sorry not others total 3 which is the crypto total market cap excluding BTC and E it's not

I mean it's it's weaker overall but it's still like kind of up here as well um and that is just doing the same thing it's kind of uh I guess like trending sideways and it's probably going to uh you know after summer if the pattern follows it's going to go up from there now of course none of this is investment advice but none of this is technical analysis either I'm just showing the charts to illustrate my point about those summer lull periods as it's known in financial markets again this is not a unique Insight this has been around for a very long time predates Crypt buy a very long time many many decades if not hundreds of years at this point of that being a phenomenon there uh and it makes total sense so I think that if you're bored with the market right now and you

live in the Northern Hemisphere and it's warm where you are probably a good idea to get outside and touch grass I'm unfortunately not in summer right now where I am in in Australia where I live it is winter it is uh the depths of winter it's like 0 deg overnight or like 1° C overnight during the day it's like 10: don't know what that is in Freedom Units I I guess I'll look it up for you guys so you don't have to look it up uh 10 10° in Fahrenheit it's a 50 Fahrenheit for you guys out there or I should say Freedom Units right um but yeah there's not really going to be much happening besides the E ETF let's see if that changes things going into July here uh but yeah we'll have to see what happens there but anyway that's enough for today sorry for a bit of uh I guess

like um a bit of uh what's the word I'm looking for stuttering in my voice and a bit of kind of slowness in me today it's definitely CU I'm sick I'm I'm trying to talk and my brain's not working as it normally is so apologies for that if that was annoying for you guys but I managed to make it through the whole episode without coughing so I guess that's a positive but anyway and enough for that thank you everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give it a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone