Is the bull market over? Zeneca on preparing for what comes next

Transcript

I think if we're sitting at around like 60k Bitcoin a week from now my plan is probably to try and sell like 50% of my portfolio GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily Show where our crypto insights stick The Landing like gold medalist Simone biles I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we're taking a controversial view what if the bull market is actually over this is a question that Zen asked this week on his Twitter a little bit of a controversial and conflicting response which we're going to go through but today we're going to give zenica a chance to explain himself and explain his thinking behind

this take which you might might not like to hear but it is important to hear because if all you're doing is thinking bull bull bull then you could get stuck in a trap zenica great to have you back on the show great to be back as always back with with a different tone this week I think but an important one and and we'll dig into it okay let's start off with your Tweet which you put out a few days ago you said the bull market might be over I don't think it is but it might be and you should have a plan just in case like if Bitcoin is mostly down only for the next year and hits 18K eth gets to 900 Soul hits $28 dot dot dot are you prepared why did you put out this tweet so I put this out the day that

everything kind of crashed crashed massively like Japan increased its rates everyone panicked and and you know Bitcoin went from it was like basically like 603k or something to 55 in in the matter of a day or something like that it just went completely fell off a cliff everything fell off a cliff e went down 20 25% in a day and everyone was kind of panicking and it had been a drop after several months of choppiness and I've been thinking this for a little while like is is the bull market over have we already hit the the cycle top back in March or whatever when we paked over 70k or are we getting what most people seem to be thinking is this sort of like we're we're consolidating and then we're

going to get another leg up late this year Q4 or like early next year and then the the real Market cycle top will be sometime in 2025 to be to be completely clear I think that is probably still the most likely scenario but I think there's a very reasonable and certainly non-zero chance that we have Top This cycle and I just think that based on my conversations with people and what I'm seeing out there on Twitter and in Discord and just in The Ether it seems that most people aren't prepared for the situation of what happens if it is over and by that I mean most people have close to 100% of their crypto deployed into risky assets um they don't really have any dry powder so that if it is

over and if we do crash back to like you know sub 20K Bitcoin Co sub 1K eth and and sub $30 Soul they don't have anything to buy the dip with and it's it's just sort of I think important for people to think about even if it doesn't end up with you changing anything I'm not telling people go out and sell right now and I didn't mean to sort of instill fear and panic on a day where people are already fearful because one of the worst things you can do is panic sell out of emotion but it is important to be thinking about that and have a plan just in case um you know no one know what's going to happen and and things could crash and and have a plan for that did this come from a change in your investment thesis or the fundamentals or

is this more of an exercise in taking a contrarian view in order to challenge yourself to see the other side so you're not so blinded by crypto Twitter and by the you know we're going to the Moon bull bull bull type thinking yeah I mean if people have been listening to the show for the last month I think have been hearing me talk about consolidating into the majors and even last week I think I came on and said I was a little more bearish than most people so it's sort of like a continuation of that line of thinking where I'm I'm maybe I'm just seeing a different Twitter than most other people or like just the sense that I'm getting I just keep like my Spidey senses are tingling and I keep seeing and hearing all these things that make me feel like I'm just not as bullish as

perhaps a lot of other people are and so the Tweet went out and it was really like whenever I tweet something like that it's like I ask myself that question first and I'm like I've been thinking that like what if it is over how should I be positioning myself what actions should I be taking with my portfolio with my strategy should I be selling certain things and again goes back to what I've been talking about of selling the the higher risk meme coin and altcoin and nft bags and holding more of the majors U perhaps even holding some more stable coins now and like literally for the last the week prior to the the crash in my head into internally I was talking to myself and saying a lot like if Bitcoin is you know 60 65k I just want to sell like almost everything and just sit in stables for a

while I didn't do it because I've been off this week with family and you know I have these thoughts all the time everyone probably does and it's like one thing to think them it's another thing to act on them and you know inside me there was another side going well you know yeah that's that's a bit silly and excessive and maybe you know it's better to just hold and it'll go back up so I I certainly don't believe with a high degree of confidence either way but I think the fact that I don't a high degree of confidence either way is probably a reason to be selling a little more than than not so yeah that's kind of like where my head's been at and again my position is different everyone's situation is different I guess it's it's was sort of like me trying to tell people to think about

this and everyone has to think for themselves because if you have ,000 in crypto it's very different to if you have a million dollars in crypto if you're 19 year-old with no responsibilities and you're making decent money it's very different to if you're 35 years old with two kids a mortgage and very little disposable income like everyone is different you have to think for yourself um and that's really what what the Tweet was designed to do to make people think like what happens if it's over are you overleveraged are you Overexposed is this going to ruin you if prices just crash because it can happen like just don't be don't have your blinders on and think it's up only no matter what it can certainly happen did you sell did you make any changes not really no I haven't

yet I basically just been sitting in my hands for the last week and a bit I've been slowly consolidating into the majors for the last few months and and taking some money out of crypto but I'm basically just waiting to get a little more time like I've got a lot of real life stuff happening my whole family's in town celebrating my dad's birthday and stuff like that for this last week so I think like next week I'm going to properly have like you know a full day or two to sit down and be like all right I'm going to properly dedicated to like coming up with a plan a strategy and actually putting that into place now and figuring out what I'm going to be selling and reallocating hopefully you prices haven't completely crashed by then I think if we're sitting it around like 60k Bitcoin a week from now my plan

is probably to try and sell like 50% of my portfolio wow really IND stables and when you say your spidey sens is going off any specific indicators or catalysts you can point to that are leading to that um it's it's sort of like a combination of a whole bunch of things one is just the the cost of living crisis around the world and like just talking to quote unquote normies or normal people friends of mine who aren't in crypto and just hearing how people are struggling to you know rent is going up inflation is kicking people in the ass and and grocery bills are expensive and people don't have that much disposable income and unemployment is is sort of you know it's low but it's sort of creeping up on the rise AI is taking

people's jobs like there's all sorts of stuff happening on that sort of macro level that makes me think who's going to come in and and buy a bags the other side of that equation is the institutions and all right they can come in with ETFs and they have been buying bags and so like that's the Counterpoint to that another thing is just sort of like a lot of people I follow on Twitter I think are having similar thoughts to me we're were talking off air before about OSF and how he was maybe a little less bullish than he has been in the past and he put out a tweet this week saying how his strategy to be like half in 50% in crypto and 50% out or inst Stables I I've seen a few other people with that sort of sentiment the whole like mean coin Mania and the

proliferation of just the quantity of coins and tokens and blockchains and layer twos and layer 3es and again I've spoken about this before but there's just so much stuff out there that's really vying for attention and it's very difficult to imagine like everything pumping ever again and I think it's going to be the Mages that pump and and a select few altcoins and so that's part of the thinking and just like the length of time like we're we're coming up on a year into this bull market like things really kicked off October last year or or thereabouts and you know bull market don't generally last years and years and years and years if we look at the past yeah maybe they've been you know a couple years and we can draw parallels on the past and stuff like that but this

cycle has already proven to be different to all previous Cycles like we hit an all-time high before the harving that's never happened before and so I think placing too much dock in previous Cycles is is a danger and I look at it and go you know we're year into the bull market this is it's probably not a great time like if I had this is another tweet we'll probably get too later if I had like a million dollars in in cash and Stables would I go out and just buy crypto at these current prices or would I wait for a dip maybe or dollar cost average in and I think these aren't like fire sale prices where I'm like oh my God I got to buy now or it's going to take off that was you know three-digit eth that was 18K Bitcoin that was that

was a year ago and so all of that coming together it's got my Spidey senses where I'm just trying to take a little more risk off the table and I think yeah I want to be clear here and I know that we're going to get a whole bunch of comments on this video and this show of people being like what are you talking you know this is this is the type of content that nobody wants to hear but that's exactly why we need to produce this type of content because you need to hear alternative points of view so feel free to yell at us in the comments if you want to yell at us and you want to yell at zenica you can go on his Twitter and you can yell at him all you want you won't be the only one that's yelling at

him this week many people did actually the amount of Engagement I got on that tweet it's like if you want engagement just be bearish on crypto Twitter everyone coming at you ironically that just made me a little more bearish cuz it just made me feel that everyone is a bit Overexposed and everyone is blindly bullish that's yeah it's a little little scary yeah yeah everyone's greedy right and so they're upset at anybody who doesn't see it the way they see it and when everybody in the room thinks the way you think then you got to question like hey what's going on here am I talking to the wrong people so hopefully listening to the show opens your eyes to another take now this being said I want to be clear as you said off the top it doesn't mean that you think 100% the bull cycle is over you actually think

more likely the bull cycle is still on you just think there is a chance there's not a zero percent chance and also this past week you put out another tweet which sort of takes another take on this you said Bitcoin to 1 million is inevitable your challenge is not to overtrade yourself to death between now and then and find yourself with eight quadrillion memec coin tokens wor zero dollars whilst having zero Bitcoin despite spending your entire life on crypto Twitter explain the other side of this which is that you do believe Bitcoin is going to a million yeah so I mean I actually put this tweet out before my other one and I still believe this very very much like I think if you look at

like a 10year Time horizon or like a a long enough time Horizon Bitcoin with hit a million dollars it's like to me it's almost inevitable a because of you know the dollar being inflated to hell and and devalued and all that kind of of stuff but B it's a finance Supply I believe in crypto Bitcoin is the OG crypto it's a good store of value it's got It's got all the reasons in the world to eventually hit a million dollars the problem is that most people again myself included for most of my crypto career I'm starting to correct it a bit now have not held that much in Bitcoin it's like most of the people that are tuning in every day especially to crypto Twitter and trading are you know have very low to no Bitcoin exposure and are sitting on memec coin bags alternative L1 bags nft

all sorts of junk that they're trying to get you know a 10x on a 50x on 100x on a 5x on you know in a week or in a day and just trying to trade and flip and play that game at the risk of missing out on just holding Bitcoin for years and I think that the best strategy for 95 to 99% of people in terms of investing in crypto is to buy Bitcoin eth and soul and just hold for 10 years and most people aren't going to do that cuz it's boring it's it's not exciting and most people think that they can outperform the market and it is what it is but I I really think that's the best strategy and yeah it's like you just see it all the time the amount of meme coins and

stuff people are trading today every week every month it's all around us is it's gotten out of hand I think and I think that it's going to like there's going to be so many people that in 2030 will look back and be like I had $25,000 of crypto in 2024 if I just bought bought half of Bitcoin then it'd be worth half a million dollars now and instead I have almost nothing because you know I got burned out I lost all my money in crypto and I gave up or there'll be stories similar to that where people just go back and I mean even myself I'm like I wish if in 2021 or even like end of 2022 just went and like sold everything and put it into Bitcoin or ether or whatever and just held that I would have done better than trying to trade in and out of you know

the different markets every single day uh that's not fun it's a lot it's a big mentality shift like I'm I'm working on it I'm going through it myself where I'm trying to figure out now that I'm back in Australia is like what do I want to what do I want to do with my time and my life and and what else and a big part of me is just finding myself being steered towards this idea of literally just the most boring strategy ever both in crypto and out of crypto just buy index funds for like my stock market portfolio which I always intend to do anyway and then just buy the majes in in crypto and just do other things in life like pick up a hobby do some more cooking work out and just like just prevent myself from doing trading maybe I'll do like some advisory

stuff in the space because I very I'm I love crypto to death like this is where I want to spend my life I think it's the future but I'm not sure the trading crypto is where I want to be spending my day-to-day time in life like the financial side of it I'm pretty happy to be just buying and holding majors and then finding other ways to sort of like the hardest thing to do is sit on your hands in the space and so it's like finding things to do to capture your time to not fero into some random mem coin because you see it on Twitter and you think it's going to be the next whiff or Pepe or whatever isn't it so interesting how nobody wants to hear the Bears and as a result you really can get caught in a singular view mindset which

can lead you down the wrong path where you start to believe and let's be real there's no shortage of content out there including our own content which for good reason I believe very much in our content and our team is putting a lot of research into it saying you know price predictions and where we think we can get in the next 12 months because we still have bull left but if if you're still listening to this episode and you didn't leave in the first minute which I fear that a lot of people will because they'll be like screw you I don't want to hear your be case but if you're still here then that's not a bad thing we're not telling you to go sell it all right now definitely definitely not but we're

telling you to make your own decisions which is so important now another thing that you put out this week that I just want to touch on is you asked a great question which is you said hypothetically if you had 1.5 million in stables and wanted to keep it in crypto where would you deploy it you got a lot of different answers to this what was the answer that you like the most and I've got to ask the the obvious question just just are you asking this because this is your current state right now I it's not my current state but it might be my state if I do what I said I was planning to do in a week or two assuming prices roughly hold and sell like a lot of my crypto I'll probably be in a state

where I have like a million to a million and a half in stables and I'm trying to figure out what do I do with that so yeah it was hypothetical but it might not be hypothetical in my future and so I wanted to see what other people were thinking as well as I have my own ideas and probably the the answer I like the best was from this guy crypto tax Made Easy I've actually been working with him for my Australian Crypt tax he's an amazing guy Matt and he basically said he'd park it all in some sort of high yield stable Vault getting you know 5 to 10% you can probably get 10% in in this current climate and then use the interest earned which is $150,000 a year 10 grand a month and use that to buy risky assets so you know you

have $10,000 a month to play the meme coin casino with you have all this that's a lot of money and you can win you can hit a 10x you can hit a 20x you can hit a 5x on that without hurting your initial capital and I think that is probably the smartest and wisest and closest to what I would actually do response I would hold a little bit of I would buy some Bitcoin I would buy some eth but the the other part of it like I asked him a followup question which was would you not buy some Bitcoin ether Soul at these current prices and his answer was no I wouldn't and that's sort of made me think a little a little bit more as well where I was like maybe I don't want to be buying more Bitcoin oh the hypothetical was I had no exposure

but maybe I don't want to be buying the majors at these prices and and just sort of wait and see and use the the interest $10,000 a month to maybe I can DCA into the majors maybe I can buy some risky assets and then if there is a big crash at some point there probably will be a crash at some point like we know how how crypto works and you know even if we do hit 140k Bitcoin there'll probably be a point in the next five years is below 50k just because that's how these things tend to go then I could buy and so I thought that was the best answer there were a lot of people who are like you know 50% Bitcoin 30% Soul 20% eth there were actually a lot of people like 80% soul and and 50% s and like that was the

people's major position and and a lot of people weren't bullish on E which is kind of to be expected based on what people are feeling in the market these days makes me more bullish on E I don't know maybe I'm that's makes me more bullish on E too I see that the is going to get wrecked but yeah I just have that bullishness underneath that that is not popular at the moment but yeah and then there were some crazy answers that were like 80% whiff and and all in meme coins and risk on assets but the the general Trend most people seem to deploy all of it into crypto tokens and very few people said Majors H sorry very few people said stables and so that also made me think that you know maybe I don't know maybe maybe that's how people are thinking about their own own

portfolios and everyone is like close to 100% deployed and people don't have that much money in Stables which means that that tends to be what happens as we get closer to tops of Market Cycles people are just all in 100% in and they don't have any dry powder to keep buying with and we need outside Capital to keep coming in and getting the price to go up which we probably do have for a while coming especially with the ETFs and institutions but yeah yeah it was very insightful to read all the answers I think let me ask you this not many people listening to this show are going to be in your position where they could have a mil Plus in stables and take and and the yield of that would probably you know if you're in the if you can get 50 to 150k annual in yield that could cover

your cost of living that's a different situation than most of our people are in if you were in a different situation as most of our listeners are where I actually don't know what the average is but let's say it's somewhere in the range of like 50k to a couple hundred K let's take that range would that change your your strategy here in terms of stables versus Majors it it again depends because everyone is in a different risk tolerance place in life it would probably change it a little bit but not a lot and by that I mean the the idea behind having the 1.5 million in stables and using the yield to to live

off or buy the risk your assets with is to not deploy it all immediately and so I think let's say you had we'll use 50k at the lower end of that I would say maybe just take that 50k and then like say all right every month I'm going to put 2K into into the majors and just like slowly DCA in at current prices and if they go up then great you've got you know you've made a good appreciation if they go down then you're buying it at cheaper and cheaper prices or maybe set aside like $500 a month to play with on like the riskiest meme coins whatsoever but don't I would say the idea is probably not to deploy all of it immediately and just take your time building a position over a longer period

because the risk of buying and having it crash by 80% is very like that's catastrophic whereas it's not that likely that you're going to miss out on a four to 5x uptick if you don't buy it all right now like you probably have some time to build your positions and take your time and the probably the biggest piece of advice I would have whether you have 1.5 million 50,000 or 1,000 is consolidate like don't spread yourself too thin buy as few tokens as possible buy the things you have the most conviction in and just hold those so you know you want to be a little bit Diversified you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket like going 100% Soul or eth is probably a little bit too

risky for for most people because you never know some random Black Swan catastrophic event could come across specifically for that token and that's why most people say you know Bitcoin ether Soul just like pick split across the three Majors that's probably Diversified enough for most people I think most people don't need to have more than five tokens just like most people don't need to have more than an index fund in the stock market it's so simple but it's so hard isn't it isn't it wild like it is it's so hard one piece of advice I would I would give people is try and like segregate or separate your long-term Investments which are your big major coins from your gambling bag and so go to the extent of

having like a separate Ledger Hardware wallet set up which is your Vault wallet where you hold your stable coins and then keep that ledger somewhere that you can't easily access it like give it to your put in your parents you know back cupboard or if they have a safe put it in there or put it somewhere that you can't just run to your you know your desk drawer and get it out and like a inch as a mean coin because you got really bullish in the moment give yourself some separation where it takes you a few hours at least to get access to the funds because usually within those few hours you'll calm down you won't fomo into something and then have a separate hot wallet or another Vault or whatever account where that's the money you're gambling with that's the money you can you know put into mem

coins that's the money you can put into whatever other non- major crypto that you want and then you you know if that goes to zero at least you haven't you know lost your biggest percentage of your portfolio your your main bag and separate the two and and keep them distinct from one another yeah it's great advice I want to know everybody listening I want to know how big your portfolio is if you're willing to share let us know the size of your portfolio because it' be really helpful for us to know do you have $1,000 do you have $50,000 you have $100,000 you have a million dollars and I know everyone's going to be different but it's really helpful and at the same time I also want to know what your risk tolerance is right are you are you there with 10,000 and a low risk tolerance because you

have a lot of dependence and a lot of expenses or are you sitting there with a 100,000 or a million and you're like let's go I got I got highrisk tolerance I want to go all in let us know that'd be really interesting to understand zenica thanks so much for for this episode this was not the episode I expected to do this week but an important one for sure yeah hopefully it made people think a little bit and and come to some sensible decisions and again like I am still bullish I think the bull market is not over but I think there's a 20% chance let's say that it is don't crucify zenica for taking a alternative point of view guys be nice to him be nice to him thanks so much for listening in everybody

remember none of this is financial advice investing in crypto is risky and you should only invest what you can afford to lose if you want to support the show make sure you subscribe give us a like give us a comment these are the types of shows that you guys need to listen to because you can't just have we're not we're not the show that's going to give you bull bull bull every day we're going to give you alternative points of view so I hope you subscribe because I hope that's what you want I hope you want diversity which is going to lead you to make the best decisions thanks for listening in everybody have a wicked awesome day we'll see you next time