The blobs are coming, Eclipse raises $50mil and more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #746 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone welcome to another episode of the Del refuel where Cap latest news etherum ecosystem I'm your host and this is Sun 12th of March 2024 all right everyone let's get into it so I know you're all probably sick of hearing about the ETF stuff recently but once again I'm going to talk about it for a few minutes but as always there are time stamps so you can skip ahead if you don't want to hear me talking about it but I'm actually going to be talking about it in a different context today and that's the context of the be case now I've been obviously very bullish on the E ETFs getting approved and specifically getting approved by May 23rd but as I've said in the past there are a lot of good kind of arguments that basically boil down to one main argument that you can make to give the bare case

here now Jake trinsky is probably the one that I uh one person I respect the most that actually has been able to give this case without resorting to conspiracy theories and for those of you who don't know who Jake is he's been around for a very long time he's a lawyer he uh has been in crypto for a very long time I mean I followed him i' I've talked to him a bunch I I really like him he's he's a great guy and as I say in my tweet we need more people like Jake in this ecosystem but enough G gushing over Jake there he put out this tweet yesterday where he basically gave his eth ETF bease now he's not saying that he's bearish on eth ETFs he's not saying that they're not going to get approved at some point in the future he's just saying that this is how the

denial would happen if it was to happen on May 23rd like that's the that's basically the day that everyone's watching right now now I'll let you read the tweet for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below but as I said it really kind of falls into the one category which is the point number one that Jake um Jake makes here where he says that the SEC would deny the EFS based on the fact that Gary gendler dislikes crypto as a concept sees no value in the technology and thinks attacking it is politically advantageous now the rest of the points basically kind of fall up into that or basically feed up into that so I'm not going to read the rest of the the kind of points here but that is the one that I obviously totally agree with it is no I guess um secret that Gary Gensler

Elizabeth Warren you know a bunch of other kind of like people at the SEC uh definitely don't like crypto they hate crypto and they head it to the point where they may actually uh be fine flipping the table as I discussed yesterday where essentially as I discussed yesterday denying the ETFs is just the stupidest thing that they can do because it really isn't like a denial it's more of a delay where essentially as soon as they deny they're going to get sued and then the ETFs are going to happen anyway um and I've given a bunch of my other reasoning around why I think that them denying it would be absolutely dumb but you guys know me I always try to stick to the facts and logic and in this particular situation the facts and logic could mean nothing right because if there is just these feelings in place

where you know ginla hates crypto so much and he hated the fact that he had to approve the BTC ETFs and Elizabeth Warren's breathing down his neck being like don't approve these things you know for such and such reason then we could see a denial purely based on that so I totally agree with that that would be the the case where the denial would happen and I discussed this at length yesterday I'm not going to rehash my arguments there so that's the main thing that Jake kind of talks about and basically kind of I guess like gives a bunch of other points around that which I'll let you guys uh read now the other thing is something that the Bloomberg ETF guys are saying and that's that uh something I've discussed before where essentially there hasn't been much back and forth between the SEC and the ET EF

issuers or the applicants uh like there was for the BTC ETFs now as I've described before I don't consider this to be a strong bease because of the fact that I think that the E ETF or a copy paste of the BTC ETFs so there doesn't seem to be really much reason for there to be much back and forth like I'm not an expert on the process obviously like I'm not someone who um who deals with this sort of stuff I'm not in the trafi world but at the same time I kind of understand the fact that eth as an asset and BTC as an asset um are basically going to be treated as the same in these ETFs they're going to be custody by the same kind of custody providers like coinbase right they already have that set up coinbase is already having meetings with the SEC showing that the

correlation between the Futures market and the spot market for eth is basically the same if not better than on BTC side and the already approved the Futures ETFs so that all plays into it there so I'm just following kind of that and if we just base our predictions on facts and logic here all of it points to the 100% that they should be approved on May 23rd there is literally zero fact factual or logical reason to not approve these things but as we know we are not dealing with someone who cares about facts we not dealing de with someone who cares about logic we are dealing with someone who cares about pleasing his political overlords and and basically doing their bidding right and and and and he's seems fine self- emulating in this case right if he was to deny the

ETFs and then go to court and losing uh just to delay it a few months he seems fine to do that at least he being Gary genda at least that's my kind of view here now there is the other part to this where I I kind of look at this and I'm like okay well as I've discussed before it is an election year so does pissing off not only crypto particip but trfi kind of participants and people in a bull market shoot the Democrats in the foot to an extent I know that crypto doesn't play a huge role in the election cycle not yet at least maybe it will sometime in the future it doesn't play a huge role right now but in such a critical election for the Democrats where a lot of polls are showing them you know potentially losing a lot of

polls are are showing them losing votes in certain demographics you know things like that where they really have to make a really strong showing to have a chance of winning do they really want to do anything to to to kind of take more votes away you know because a lot of the times uh a lot of these elections they're very close especially on a state-by-state basis you know they're very close in votes and there there are times where you a few thousand votes can make all the difference or less than that so what happens if that those few thousand votes were people who voted based on crypto policies right based on the fact that the Democrats have been extremely hostile towards crypto and people are voting for Republicans because they want a change in government there and I I I I honestly have the general view that Republicans Democrats

being in power doesn't really matter too much for crypto prices it obviously matters for policies around kind of like what teams can do and and Clarity around things being Securities or not but in terms of like the overall crypto bull bear Cycles I think they kind of follow their own thing based on a bunch of other factors you can't really boil it down to who's in power I think because we've had bull markets when Republicans were in power we've had bull markets when Democrats were in power obviously we're having one right now where Democrats are in power so yeah I I I don't think generally that's kind of something that plays into it there but in terms of the SEC in terms of people voting uh basically on a single issue and that issue being crypto you would be mad to vote for Democrats right now if

you were a single-issue crypto voter because of the fact that even if you're only um if you're only concerned with the SEC and not all the other policies around crypto from the Democrats if you're concerned with the SEC then you would vote for the Republicans so that they would immediately remove gensa from the SEC appoint someone to there that's more Pro crypto because uh you know Trump obviously said uh recently I don't know if you guys saw maybe it's not obvious to you guys so recently he said I think it was this was yesterday he said that he's a fan of of of crypto fan of Bitcoin he's a fan of his nfts that he's doing so as a voter you see all of that and you're like okay well he's obviously going to appoint someone who's Pro crypto to the SEC maybe it's even

hesta Pur maybe she gets promoted to commissioner or I guess like not commissioner uh chief of the SEC there and G obviously gets the boot so if you a single issue voter just based on crypto then you you're definitely going to be voting for republicans in in my eyes but at the end of the day like I am not in the US I'm not an expert on us politics but that's how I kind of think of it goes so that is also a reason for them approving this stuff because as I've said before the path of lease resistance for the SEC is to approve this stuff if we're basing it on facts and logic but if we're basing it just on the emotions of Gary gendler and Elizabeth Warren well then unfortunately they can do the stupidest thing and honestly there's not much blowback on

them personally um unless they Lo unless unless okay unless Elizabeth Warren loses her seat to someone based on crypto then obviously there's blowback there but for gendler who's an unelected bureaucrat who basically just does the bidding of the politicians for him he's kind of like eh unless I feel like I'm not going to be able to do what I want after I I you know leave the SEC I'm not going to change my stance here so all of that obviously falls into it and I hate that that it's so political guys because this process of approving an ETF should not be based on your own personal feelings towards assets should not be based on politics it should be based on the facts and and the reason and the factual reasoning and the logic and the law I mean the law should be respected here because has already lost on in

court based on the law but it's not and that is the primary reason or the primary kind of thing that people are bringing up as to why these things could get denied on May 23rd now in saying all of that last thing I'll say is that I would give it a deadline of about mid April if we don't hear anything by mid April about kind of some back and forth between the SEC and the issu is we can pretty much say that May 23rd will will Pro will most likely be a denial I mean there could still be some back and forth later than that but it gets really close to the deadline and it becomes a kind of thing of can they get it done in time because you could get to the scenario where it gets denied based on the fact that they're just not ready yet because

the ACC dragged their feet on this so that's a reality that could happen but I doubt that that would happen honestly um but yeah that's that's kind of where we're at right now so hopefully there's not much more ETF stuff over you know until something positive happens because I know you guys are sick of hearing about this but at the same time I think it's critically important to keep you guys up to date on this uh and it's interesting to me at least and I'd like to talk about what's interesting to me on the refuel hopefully I can make it interesting for you guys cuz a lot of this stuff is actually really dry honestly if you take away eth from this and you're just talking about like politics and ETFs and and you know people doing stupid things and so on and so forth it's not really that

entertaining it's more like a soap opera than anything else right um but yeah I'm going to leave that one at that for today I'm going to move on to more interesting stuff which is Denon related so as you guys probably saw already that one minute animated short that was created for Erp 4844 has gone live you can also mint the nft which basically all the proceeds will go to C developers via the protocol guil here but if you haven't seen this yet I'll link it in the YouTube description below you can go check it out but this is a great little short here and as I said yesterday you can try and find all the little Easter eggs in this I mean I'm just scrolling through the video here you can see that the you know the little pipe is is named EIP the hose hose I should say is named EIP 4844

then you've got like a bunch of different characters at the end here that you can kind of spot if I go like this yeah you can spot all the L2 characters and so on and so forth right so I'm not going to spoil it for you guys you can go give this uh give this a watch I'll link it in the YouTube description below and Al the mint the mint the nft with all proceeds going to core developers via the protocol guilt all right speaking of denune less than 24 hours I think by the time this uh you're watching this maybe maybe just over 24 hours actually by the time that you're watching today's episode of the refu until Denon goes live on the ethereum mayet there's going to be a live stream I've got a link to that actually here nixo from E Staker tweeted

casted this out on faras I'll link that in the YouTube description below uh but there is also a hard Fork monitor at the Beacon chain website here so I'll link that as well for you guys you can scroll down you can see it here time of recording there's one day and 2 hours to go until denune goes live it is finally here guys I am so excited to see blobs go live like I I can't actually describe my excitement like I'm not as excited as I was like about the merge obviously the merge was just like too big of a of a thing and at a long time coming but the the blobs going live the IP 4844 go goes live signals another kind of shift in ethereum's uh I guess like road map well not not road map so to speak but like ethereum's trajectory where essentially

we've gone from having non-purpose built call data powering Roll-Ups to now purpose built blobs powering rollups which can turn into full dank sharting at some point which will have things like data availability sampling which is part of the longer term rollup Centric road map that has been proposed a few years ago by vitalic so this is a huge step here guys that's why I'm super excited about denune generally um with IP 4844 going live and I'm finally excited to see what the fees are going to be like and what's funny is that I'm both excited but also a little bit annoyed and I'm annoyed because cuz I just know that the fees are not going to be as cheap as some people have said they're going to be and they're not going to be as expensive as some people have said they're going to be uh but at

the same time they're going to sit in like this middle Zone where it will make the people happy that it's cheaper but then other people will be like hey it's not as cheap as you said it was going to be you scammed and lied to us haha ethereum is still expensive blah blah blah you you just know that fud's going to happen so it's going to be annoying to see that but at the same time it's going to be great to see the effect that it has and actually be able to put accurate numbers to this without having to make all these assumptions because there are a of assumptions that goes into any fear estimations um for blobs because you just don't know what it's going to be like so that's probably the thing I'm most excited about once blobs goes live the first few weeks just to

see what the fees are going to be like on these rollups uh and how cheap they're going to remain I I expect inscriptions spam to happen in the first couple of days as I've discussed before just because people like to take advantage of uh launches and try to like hype up some some meme coin or something we we we'll see or meme nft whatever you want to call it we'll see but yeah I'm super excited for it uh for that but you can go check out the um monitor for the hard Fork I'll link that in the YouTube description below as well as a live stream which I'll be on by the way as you guys know it's co-hosted by myself eth Staker and eth Cat herders uh it will be a great live stream I'm looking forward to it it's uh it's going to be

midnight my time so hopefully I I have the energy I think I will I think I think I'll be too hyped not to have the energy but yeah I'll link all that in the YouTube description below for you to check out all right speaking of l2s Tony posted a nice little uh kind of table here on Twitter where he said in the last 30 days arbitrum optimism and scroll together posted over 10 gig of data to ethereum L1 that's more call data than all non- rollup users put together and obviously Den is coming where essentially this will move to blobs instead of on call data because we already have confirmation from arbitrum optimism and scroll that they will be using blobs from basically day one now this means that call data is going to not be used at all by these players uh as far as I understand which means that

the 10 gig of data is going to move AC cross to to blobs instead of um instead of instead of call data here so really from like a chain size perspective it should be uh relatively the same for like the the 18-day period and then obviously once blobs expire it's um it basically goes back to to what it was before that but because it's like a rolling effect we don't know exactly what it's going to be we have estimations it's not going to be that much more but it's it's a rolling effect right like every 18 days it expires but it it it's it's continuous it's not just like okay well we have an 18-day expire now we're going to wait another 18-day before you expire the rest no it's just like on a continuous basis once the first 18-day period is done um everything that came before that by like

even 17 uh day 17 days and 23 hours and and uh you know 59 minutes and 59 seconds it's it's kind of like a a rolling expiry there actually I'm curious about that like how often um the uh expiry is actually done by the node itself I'm not sure if that's the right way I think thinking about it but yeah but regardless you get you get my point here um but yeah all of this is going to move to blob's um PO for denune obviously because as I said but all arbitrum optimism and scroll have all said they're going to be supporting it for on day one I don't know if they're going to be supporting it from the fork itself they may wait like a few hours before they activate it or something I'm very curious to see which one activates it first maybe there'll be a little bit

of a race to activate it first and see which one post to blobs first here um and as I said I'm also very curious to see what the fees are going to look like there but anyway not long now guys just over 24 hours uh from time of recording until we have it live on the network and I can stop speculating about basically everything related to 4844 all right so speaking of l2's Eclipse which is the salana virtual machine L2 uh that's building top of ethereum here announced a ma massive fundraise of $50 million series a co-led by placeholder and hack VC with a bunch with participation from a bunch of other uh Venture Capital firms as well as a bunch of angels now full disclosure I am an angel investor in Eclipse because as I've said before the most exciting thing

for me is about l2s is not the kind of scalability because that's table Stakes but it's the ability to experiment with different uh virtual machines so uh as you guys know I'm an adviser to fluent and movement which are doing um uh WM and move uh l2s and now with Eclipse they're doing the svms and L2 and I've long said that the svm is uh is really cool Tech I think that it works best as an L2 I've just been very bearish on any kind of Monolithic model and obviously salana being the poster child for the monolithic model I've just been bearish on that as a long-term sustainable model like I've always said that I believe that it would work better as an L2 and now we get to see it with Eclipse now in saying that eclipse is going to be not a full rollup because there's just going

to be too much data to post to ethereum L1 it'll be too too prohibitive right now uh they're going to be a validium essentially where uh I think initially they're going to be posting their data to Celestia while obviously having their bridge and proofs posted on ethereum so technically I mean by my definition and by I think like an agreement upon definition they are still considered an L2 here um but it's going to be interesting to see how how the svm does as an L2 versus how it does as an L1 it's going to confirm or or deny a lot of these kind of beliefs that people have around uh layer 1es versus layer 2os I think and also I'm very curious to see what Eclipse does longterm like is the ethereum kind of uh data uh availability going to be enough or I

guess a data availability layout going to be enough for everyone longterm when we get dat data availability sampling you know full dank sharding or are we going to see these validum just proliferate and that'll be you know they use obviously Ian da as well not just Celestia and other da layers like ail and Mia they chop and shoes I think based on what they want to use here very curious to see how that happens but I guess congrats to eclipse on the Ray and I'm I'm very lucky to be part of it of course uh here with they had a lot of angels as part of their raise actually um they've only got a a bunch listed here you know you recognize some of these names here like Eric wall and a bunch of people from the uh salana ecosystem as well which is kind of

hilarious because a lot of these people in the salana ecos system say that l2s are garbage and you know they they're not great and why would you do l2s when you can do everything on one layer and then they put money into an L2 like I always follow the money here guys like when I when I look at this stuff especially when I look at people's opinions on things because if you really believed what you were saying you wouldn't have invested in this and that's like with me not to toot my own horn here but I've passed on on investing in monad that new L1 parallel evm uh twice now two two times now I I I passed investing in it when it was like a I think it was a $100 million valuation this was a couple years ago I think um and uh you know I knew it was

going to be big at the time I was like okay well you know I think parallel evm is going to be a big thing going forward I think it's going to be great for the evm system overall but I can't invest in it because it's an L1 and then recently I got pinged again it's like hey you want to invest I'm like no I you I can't you guys are still in L1 I can't invest in L1 because I don't believe that l1's are long-term sustainable so I'm not going to put my money into something that I don't believe in and fun fact as well I also was uh got offered this salana deal originally uh when it was 50 Cent so originally when um they were raising I got offered that deal and I could have put money into it I think it was in maybe 2020 or something like that

and it was the same thing for me at the time where I was just like okay maybe this does well uh you know because of the fact that everyone's like oh you know cheaper faster narrative people love that whatever um and it was doing a a bunch of stuff differently to ethereum and I know how it goes with these l1s like these rotation games that go on with them but I pass them I'm I'm not going to invest in an L1 I'm not going to invest in something that I think is not long-term sustainable uh but then when Eclipse came along I was like okay I think the SPM is Cool Tech I've never had a problem with the M and they're building an L2 on ethereum which I believe is the most sustainable way to build an ecosystem so yeah sure I'm going to I'm going to invest in in them

here and I I guess like just to put some some numbers on it here for for the monad thing at $100 million valuation back then I mean you could probably safely say it's going to open at what 1020 billion valuation because of just all the hype around it right now like that's 10000 x that I passed on because I didn't want to invest in something that didn't align with my beliefs whereas you have other people who have no issue doing that they have no issue saying all this [ __ ] on Twitter and then inv investing in something that goes against I guess kind of like what they um what they what they kind of say so that's why I've said to you guys plenty of times before the narrative is the narrative the reality is the reality reality is people say whatever they [ __ ] want because it costs nothing to

say that and and a lot of the time it's [ __ ] follow what they do follow the money especially as well follow the incentives the economic incentives because that's always going to lead you to the truth or at least most of the time it will lead you to the truth but anyway enough ranting about that I I actually said to myself before I recorded the episode I'm like am I going to rant about that am I not and I feel like I had to because it just it just annoyed me a little bit where I'm just like like you know there's not many people who actually stick with what they say and actually um are telling the truth in this ecosystem it's just very sad How They Se people who who basically Gaslight and lie a lot of the time I try my best to like not do any of that like

sometimes I'll make a mistake and and and in the past I've definitely been someone who has been more guess bombastic about things but over the last at least 18 months I say I will say that I've tried really hard not to not to kind of do any of that because it's just like very toxic for the ecosystem but anyway regardless of that I'm I'm very excited about Eclipse they're going live soon actually I think that they're yeah they're on track for a Q2 main net launch as well so keep an eye out for that that's not very far away far away obviously Q2 is is next quarter so I'm excited to see them go live there excited to see what they do like what kind of TPS metrics they they kind of reach what kind of usage they get what salana apps come over from you know

obviously the salana the layer one to Eclipse May because obviously they can they can build what they um what they have on salana on eclipse and and I'm curious to say the per the performance metrics between salana L1 and eclipse is in L2 because as I said it's going to show us uh a lot of uh things that we've basically been uh kind of having opinions about and and and basically prove our opinions right or wrong on that front there but anyway that's enough on that one moving on to the next thing so I came across this article from coindesk that Ann that basically said that metamask is testing fully onchain uh payment card with MasterCard so essentially it looks like metamask is teaming up with MasterCard to issue a new uh kind of uh fpst card here with banks another another company that

issued U these cards so that you can use and spend your crypto on everyday purchases uh you everywhere that MasterCard is accepted now this is nothing new there's been a bunch of these before but it's cool that such a big brand or I guess like big name like metamask is getting involved with this obviously it would probably be tied to your metamask wallet uh whether that be on mobile or desktop obviously mobile being the the main one here but being able to spend your crypto is definitely something that a lot of people want to be able to do uh being able to kind of buy a coffee with crypto or you know pay your bills in crypto or whatever wherever MasterCard is accepted is is definitely something that a lot of people have wanted to do so you'll be able to do that at some point in the

future with metam mask here but you can read the full article for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right so last thing here I wanted to talk about uh because obviously like the market stuff is heating up yet again uh as per usual uh it's getting hotter and hotter as the days go by um people are doubting that it's a bull market still which is hilarious to me but regardless of that you guys will remember that like mid is last year I was putting out all of these Pro tips these bull market Pro tips and I actually have like a whole thread of them which I'll link in the YouTube description below uh here yes okay I found it here so there are I think like uh six of these tips or something like that that I put out um but one of the

tips that I wanted to focus on was this one here where I said which was my second tip uh where I said uh Pro tip number two for the bull market outperforming USD is easy mode outperforming Ethan BTC is hard mode 99 9.99% of coins are a trade not an investment you best remember that when going down the risk curve now we all know that outperforming eth is incredibly difficult like we all I mean I think a lot of you probably denominate your portfolio in eth and then anytime you go into another coin you're probably measuring it against eth or you've traded eth for it and we're not even talking about taxes in this by the way like take away taxes for now taxes make this trade even worse for you but regardless in a bll market everything is going up in US dollars so it's very very

easy to outperform USD it's just very easy to outperform USD generally but it is very very difficult to outperform Ethan BTC uh especially over the long term like over the short term in a ball Market if you do the trade right maybe you can do it but if you look at the longer term go and look at all the charts uh for the longer term of of of things against Ethan BTC pretty much almost all of them are down only and there are also kind of Cycles to this where essentially you might have uh one cycle old coins pumping against Ethan BTC in the next bull market uh but then after that that's their like last kind of swan pump as I like to call it and then they just basically bleed against Ethan BTC forever from there the poster

child of this is probably Litecoin because Litecoin has been around for a long time and I know no one talks about Litecoin anymore for good reason it's kind of useless but I'm going to bring up the chart here for you guys I'm going to bring it up on my other screen just to illustrate to you what this looks like over over different Cycles because I feel like it's very important to understand this if you are trying to go down the risk curve and trying to outperform uh the kind of Market here so I'm going to I'm going to measure LTC against BTC because um it's been around for the same period of time eth came later than Litecoin so there's not as much price history but if you look at this chart in front of me here so look at this this is what I mean by uh it

having two cycles where it can perform well against BTC or eth and then after that it's down only so look here it had as in 2017 it performed well against BTC where it went up a bunch you can see it on the chart here then again it did a bit of a pump in in kind of like 2019 here but then like it was down only after that you can see here like it's it's down only like absolutely down only since then and if you take the peak of against BTC which was Feb 2018 to the Bottom now it is down 94% right so it yeah it's gone down 94% against BTC in that entire kind of like time period there uh and you haven't really outperformed at all now of course I'm using the example of Litecoin which

is obviously nothing special it's it's not like a project that anyone cares about or focuses on really anymore and it was originally just started off as basically just like a joke Fork to be honest I mean it was just kind of Charlie Lee experimenting but then it got bigger and he kind of got got rich off of it but that's sorry for another time but that's just one example here but if you want an example in the eth ecosystem I think there's one uh a perfect example here of Wii eth so actually maybe it's better to me to do this cuz it'll give me more price history so this is the perfect example of what I mean so for those of you who are around in defi summer you'll know what I mean by this so wifi or the native token of the Y ecosystem it

started off at zero it was a pure yii Farm token there were no VCS it was one of those Fair launches that people like to meme about um and and it was launched at zero it went up to at Peak I think it got to like $100,000 or something this isn't going to show the peak price but it got to like $100,000 and it and and and it picked at like I think 120 oh no I can actually see it on the chart 115 eth per Wii token so obviously a huge Peak now look at the chart that in front of me for those listening on the podcast just going to illustrate the chart from that point which was September 2020 it's literally down only the entire time it has not set anywhere near that kind of high since then and if I put a

percentage terms to it from the Pico top on September 20120 until today it is down 97.7% against eth if you put one eth into it you would have 0.03 eth left so you would basically have $120 left today uh of of your eth instead of $4,000 if you put that into Wii then and held it obviously if you held it all the way down here I'm not making any comment on year as a project or Wi-Fi as a token itself I'm just showing you what the one of the worst case scenarios look like here and the reason why I picked this token is because at the time it was stupidly bullish guys I can't even begin to describe to you how bullish everyone was on this token like it was next level bullish because you had meme coin uh

wrapped into it because WiFi was a mem coin back then 100% was you had literally everyone talking about it at the time it was part of Def which everyone was talking about it was headed up by Andre KJ who was considered a god at the time because he had a bunch of other things I think he was working on as well um and it was a new a new kind of way to do y farming people are excited about that there were a main characters like Blue Kirby around pumping it and stuff like that and it just felt like it could go up only forever because it was a general bull market too leading into the end of 2020 here obviously everyone was sitting at home because it was Co lockdowns and stuff too but at the time that was by far the most bullish I've ever seen

anyone collectively on a token and I'm not talking about like BTC and eth because that's uh I guess outside of this but I mean like the tokens and other coins out there even like last year when you saw overon being bullish on Soul because it went up a lot I that was still nothing compared to what was with what happened with yfi that that definitely was still nothing compared to WiFi just to give you some context here and then you can see what happened to it after it so my main point for you guys here I mean there's two main points and the reason why I bring this up first one please understand when you go down the risk curve and you're trading away your ether BTC for other tokens you're going to lose longterm 99% of the time so if you're treating as a trade and you're

trying to stack more ether BTC be my guess I'm not saying saying don't do that but please don't look at it as a long-term investment against BTC and eth because 99% of the time you're going to be wrong and you're going to be completely wrong it's not just a little bit wrong you're going to be 90 plus% wrong which hurts like let me tell you I've done this before it hurts guys you think you might you're not going to hold it down 90% And then you end up holding it down 90% for one reason or another and then you look at what you could have had versus what you have now and you're like okay like that is a really [ __ ] decision and you feel really [ __ ] about it and it's you know it's not a great feeling there and the second point is

that just because a token or a coin seems to be something that everyone is incredibly bullish on for like three months or four months a short period of time in a bull market does not mean that that is going to be remain true for the uh you know the longer term future it is usually the opposite people will be really bullish on things because they're Shilling it for one reason or another they're using Market as ex exit liquidity whatever else you know this happens all the time you guys know if you've been in it long enough this happens all the time but you know just because people are really bullish on something for 3 4 months don't extrapolate that out to years don't think that that 3 4 months is it at all illust of what's going to happen over the long term it is 100% not and even

eth went through this in 2017 my God eth was like the most bullish thing anyone had ever seen like everyone was talking about the flippening everyone was talking about how ethereum was going to go to proof of stake in 2017 it's going to take over the world you know Screw BTC eth is the new eth is the new thing here uh you know so on and so forth and then in 2018 eth went down 90% against BTC it's come back now and hasn't gone it's come back up a lot since then it hasn't gone down as much this bare Market but still eth is the outlier eth is the 1% or the less than 1% that actually came back from the depths of Hell most of these things do not do that so please keep that in mind when you're trying to play the bull market trying to

go down the risk curve here um and this is just coins I'm not even talking about things like nfts which have also gotten slaughtered against eth as well who knows what they're going to do you know over the over the short term maybe there's a wealth effect and people that have eth going to nfts again but I'm always talking more longer term here because people get caught up in the short term they extrapolate it out the long term and then they end up getting wrecked on this and again I have firsthand experience with this in 2017 I held something uh through to 2018 and it went down like 90 something per against eth uh and luckily I didn't put that much eth into it but it still hurt cuz I was like why the hell did I hold it down that long and I'll tell you why because

all during the period that it's underperforming Ethan going down there the project is still kind of like being worked on people are still bullish on people are still saying oh it's just the cool off phase you know we're going to go back up soon and then of course if it's a bare Market on top of that that kind of thing coming down generally against eth it's going to be stupidly hard to outperform eth and actually I think that an even better example than wifi is link I love chain link guys don't get me wrong I love chain link I think it's an awesome project it Powers so much of D5 always love chain link but if you remember in last uh not the last ccle the cycle before if you were around back then chain link was really bullish and from July 2018 to August 2020 it

went up 10,000% against e so it went up lot against eth right over over a long period of time but then August 2020 to November 20 uh sorry to uh where is it where is it where where am I going to November 2021 which was like the start of the bull market really August 2020 to the end of the bull market November 2021 it went down 90% against eth even in a bull market it went up in USD of course but even in a bull market A Raging Bull Market it went down 90% against eth right and then since then I mean if you even look at today what it's at it's still down 90% against against eth right and this is 1,316 days later as I said nothing against link I just use it as an example of a token that has gone you

know really well against eth and then just like down only against eth for a long period of time you can actually see like it didn't reverse the whole move of course but most people end up entering later on in the move so I would say most people entered around here in the move um I've just circled it on my chart here um and then yeah I mean depending where they exit who knows maybe they exited down here before link pumped again I don't know but anyway enough of the market talk there I just thought it was prudent to talk about that Pro tip because I know a lot of you are definitely trying to increase your e stack by trading other things but you have to keep all of those points in mind that I just mentioned there but on that note that's going to be it for today so

thank everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give it a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone