Bitcoin's setup versus previous cycles: Matt Crosby

Transcript

But again, we are at a point where there's only really one solution to get yourself out of a bit of a mess in an economy. And that solution historically and likely will be for the foreseeable >> to print more money. And we're seeing no signs of that slowing down. What's up everybody? It's LG Ducet here and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that isn't buying new underwear until Bitcoin gets back to 100K. And man, it's looking like Swiss cheese down there. Today is May 8th, 2026. Recording late on May 7th, 2026. Listen, we love crazy predictions on Milk Road, especially fun crypto ones like ETH to 250K or Bitcoin to a million dollars. And despite having a few of those lately on the show with other guests, no one has more fun predictions,

more entertaining ones than my guest today, who spends his entire days tracking the price of Bitcoin and is back to give us a variety of scenarios. And we've been waiting to have him back on since the end of last year. Matt Crosby from Bitcoin Magazine Pro is back with us today. Today's episode is brought to you by Cape, the privacy first mobile carrier, Ferros, the layer 1 built for Real Fi, and Nexo, earn interest, borrow and trade crypto. Matt, he's back. He's back at the turn of the tide, man. It's good. You You vanished through this this this terrible winter we had, and now now the fact that you're back on the show makes me more bullish than ever.

>> Amazing. Well, happy to be back. And yeah, I timed that perfectly. We did the 2026 outlook and then I immediately left for like 2 months. The first first break I'd had in like four years. I was like, you know, I think it's deserved. I I think we're going to have a boring, you know, few months and and price was like what, 90K or something. Immediately checked my phone a couple days later buying 60K. So, it is what it is. But happy to be back and and happy to be back now that things are starting to look actually a little bit more positive and optimistic and bullish. I think I've timed this pretty nicely. I've missed all the terrible price action where your poor guests having to come on and say, you know what, it's it's it's not looking great. I get to go on when it

was good before and I get to come on when it's good again now. So, very excited. We we love and appreciate all our guests that we've had in the LA to start this year in the last four months giving us uh some optimism in the dark days of crypto winter and of actual winter as well. We got through it, Matt, but now we're back with you and you went and touched grass for real. You literally you you this that's the way to do it, guys, is like literally just stick to your computer until there's a clear bare market and then just disappear for a bit. That's I don't know why you would spend your days on X or anywhere else uh when when the price action looks like it has. Uh, but Matt, I feel like we should get right into it, man. I feel like you always give us such

great fantastic analysis. So, I I'd love to pull up kind of what you're thinking about these days. >> So, in fact, before we get into this data and uh we we did briefly discuss this first. No, no, I just wanted to pull up this little image because I remember the last time I was on your show >> and you know, we always have a lot of fun, but I remember I think it was the first question you asked, Matt. Your latest prediction was way off. So, you know, I'm an analyst in the space. Sometimes I get things wrong, sometimes I get things right. But on the last show we had when Bitcoin had just broken beneath that one year moving average that 50 week everyone was looking towards and we were at like the mid 90,000s and I came on and I said you know what I actually think a dip towards

mid50s 60k and a and a summer bare market was my kind of base case. So I just wanted to take this screenshot and say I'm not always wrong. Occasionally you know like a like a broken clock occasionally >> this analysis actually actually comes to fruition. So, I just wanted to start off with that. But no, we we'll dive into some real stuff. So, >> first and foremost, has Bitcoin's price bottomed out? I mean, it's the million-dollar question. And of course, I don't have a crystal ball, but today we're going to put some jigsaw pieces together, look for some confluence, and try and look more pragmatically to see, you know, what's the probability that Bitcoin has really bottomed out? Because we can see we've had this bare market so far dropped around 50% from 120ishk to 60ishk, high 59ks. And now we've

actually recovered fairly quickly. So I mean it makes sense to look at Bitcoin now having gone from, you know, $60,000 to mid $80,000 or so a few days ago and think, wow, was was that the bottom already? I mean, it felt like a pretty terrible bare market. But I think if we can look back in hindsight and say the worst is behind us, then, you know, it's actually not been too bad. But I have a few different kind of outlooks on the market. I think initially where we are right now, we're at some heavy resistance. So, we're at the short-term holder realized price, the 200 day moving average. We'll get into that a little bit later, but ultimately, I think, at least in my mind, as much as I really hate to say it, that this time is different, and I do hate to say it, I

think the base case of we're going to have this four-year cycle and we're going to have this very predictable one-year bare market. And I'm sure you might have noticed it in the comments on social media, etc. People are saying, "Yeah, I know it might look positive now, but we're not going to bottom out until October because we always have a oneyear long bare market." Well, >> it's a pretty small sample size. We have two or three cycles where that's really happened. And if we are to just see Bitcoin have, you know, a summer lull, which it very well may, and not bomb out until October, then, you know, that may be the case. But in the current market conditions for me, I think the asymmetric opportunity of Bitcoin around these levels is too hard, too big to ignore. And Bitcoin generally is just

changing. If we look at the circulating supply of Bitcoin, >> over 95% that will ever exist are already in circulation. Now in previous cycles, this four-year cycle that we saw where we had, you know, the hinging event, big one 18-month uh long bull market and then we had a year-long bare market and then this kind of chopping and consolidation until the next h havinging. That's very influenced by the fact an asset had its inflation rate decreased by 50% instantly. That's a big fundamental change in the network. And as well as that, we were pretty speculative retail driven assets. So we had these big euphoric bubbles, big long drastic bear cycles. But now we've seen a huge amount, well a vast majority of the supply actually already in circulation and we're already seeing

Michael Sailor and Strategy and Treasury companies scooping up far more Bitcoin than is produced on a daily basis. So in that regard, I think we probably shouldn't look as the fouryear cycle as our immediate base case. But even if we do want to kind of take that lens that we want to have a one-year bare cycle to truly have this this capitulation then again I think we discussed it last time in some senses we already really have had this capitulation. So, this is rather than measuring Bitcoin versus the US dollar or fiat currencies, which we typically do, which isn't maybe the best benchmark because if you're measuring something with a finite supply that is divisible and is a hard money like Bitcoin, and you're measuring against

something that's losing 3, four, five plus% of its purchasing power every single year, then it really should be grinding up to the upside. So if you actually measure Bitcoin versus other comparable assets like in this instance silver then we can actually see the relative or comparable purchasing power of Bitcoin versus these assets. Now what we can see is if we measure Bitcoin versus silver which I think is a good comparison. People like to point towards digital gold and we'll look at some gold comparisons shortly but gold is a $35 trillion market cap commodity whereas Bitcoin you know 1.5 trillion. Silver is the next logical target. it it trades a lot more like silver than gold. It's a lot more volatile and silver is about a four to5 trillion asset depending on the

current price. So I think that's the next logical target. And if you look at this Bitcoin bare market in terms of relative purchasing power versus silver, this has already been the third worst bare market in Bitcoin's entire history. Even though we're only down 50% versus the US dollar, in terms of a comparable commodity, we're down nearly 80%. And this bare market has been over a year. We topped out in late 2024. So, this kind of already does play into the 4-year cycle and shows that we we really have had this capitulation. >> If you're not seeing this, you're trading blind right now. There are real moves happening behind the scenes that most people don't see until it's way too late. Inside Milkro Pro, you can track exactly what our analysts are buying, selling, and what's on their watch lists before it moves. You can try it out for

just a dollar for 7 days. The link is in the description. But is that is that only because silver has seen a huge runup during this time? because silver has hit alltime highs in the last six months, right? Like silver's on a historic run >> that it's never seen before. So naturally, and it like is that is this the ratio that we're looking at? Like is this is this that what you're showing me basically? >> Yes. So this might make it a little clearer if we look at this, which is very similar, but we can see the orange line here, which is Bitcoin versus the dollar. So throughout 2025, we hit a new all-time high in October, $126,000ish.

But it certainly didn't feel like we hit a new all-time high because we were seeing assets like silver, like gold, like equities, like realistically everything outside of the cryptocurrency space rallying to new all-time highs. So is it a fair lens to say Bitcoin specifically versus silver or specifically versus gold? You know, if I was, you know, cherry-picking one AI stock, maybe. But we were looking at every other market which was going up drastically compared to Bitcoin. So we were seeing this lagging behavior. And on this chart again we can see even though Bitcoin did make new all-time highs versus gold, it was only about a 52% return following the 2024 having event. And then again this was in late 2024 before a year long bare cycle with incredibly negative returns. So it's not

just looking at one asset or another. In fact, if we measure Bitcoin as a percentage of global wealth, which I don't want to do a shameless shill here, but if you do buy the new Bitcoin magazine, I do have an article covering exactly this rather than measuring one or two comparable assets. If we take the entire wealth of the entire world uh and measure Bitcoin as a percentage of that total wealth, we're only about a quarter of a percent, but it's it's the same story across the board. Recently, we have recovered that 2017 bull market peak, but really if you look at this chart, you can see how different this cycle was. I mean, we had just a new all-time high and then this bare market has just been brutal. Compared to the USD chart, it looks fairly familiar up until this cycle, which just saw a lower

peak at that all-time high. Of course, we topped in 2024 and now it's just been brutal. But this is kind of one of the reasons why I'm thinking this time might be different because recently we've seen geopolitical uncertainty. We've seen macroeconomic conditions in which people a few years ago would have looked at Bitcoin and thought there's absolutely no way we could be on the verge of a new world war. We could be seeing, you know, oil spiking to the upside and all these recessionary claims. And Bitcoin is actually regaining ground in incredibly fast rate versus these comparable assets.

>> It's regaining ground like in the last like month. You mean? Well, sir, since we bottomed at around $60,000, if you look at Bitcoin versus the S&P 500, for example, >> right, >> Bitcoin's gained well or since the conflict in the Middle East started, Bitcoin's gained around 45% to the upside. So that's not just in terms of how it's gone up in US dollar terms, but if we look at the ratio between these charts, which is again something I'm trying to focus a little bit more on this cycle, because again, if Bitcoin's going up, but everything else is going up alongside it, then it's maybe not the best measuring stick to see if we're actually getting or at least maintaining our level of wealth, >> right?

>> And one thing we need to consider, >> I have a I have a question for you. So So hold on. So, I just got to recap the last couple slides and the last couple bits is that basically you're you're now you're comparing Bitcoin in terms of its purchasing power to gold and to silver, right? And showing how Bitcoin is now at the lowest range of has been at the lowest range of that ratio than it's ever been or has been in one of the worst ranges basically versus either of those assets. Um, is this is this a comparison you have used in the past, Matt, or is this a new comparison? Like, would you have used this three or four years ago?

>> So, I I don't have the chat uh to hand here, but it's been something that people have looked towards to a long time. So, it's not like this is a new >> What about you specifically though, Matt? What about you? I want to know about you. Is this Yeah, you specifically. Well, I I have liked these charts for a while, but one that's really handy is if you look at, for example, gold versus silver, you kind of get an almost immediate risk on to risk off environment for commodities. It's just a quick ratio. And one that's been very popular that I've looked at as well as many other analysts is looking at the S&P 500 versus gold. And what we can see is this gives a really cyclical almost multiple decade long look at where we could be going in terms of risk on for

equity markets or a little bit more defensive. So these ratios again it it's not anything groundbreaking or or new. And I mean even within the crypto space up until this cycle maybe the previous cycle definitely throughout 2017 and and at least what felt like the start of 2021 if you were trading any altcoins you're almost certainly looking at the ETH BTC pair or the you know your next favorite altcoin which is definitely going to make a new alltime high this cycle versus Bitcoin chart. But they've kind of fallen out of favor to just be looking at everything purely in USD terms. So within the crypto space, we should be fairly familiar with these ratio charts, but it doesn't seem like something people are really putting a lot of emphasis on. And when we actually measure the market in these terms, as I said, it gives us a better insight into

not just what's happening in terms of our purchasing power, but in terms of the target we're actually aiming for because again, these aren't fixed targets. Between 2024 and gold's peak, the market cap of gold increased by around $20 trillion. So in 2 years it increased by the market cap of Bitcoin over 10 times which is just crazy to imagine that amount of capital you know swirling around these markets but that's a growing pool of capital as well. So at the minute we're somewhere around $480 $490 trillion currently circulating throughout markets but in the next decade this is likely to increase by around 75% somewhere around $860 trillion. And that's why measuring purely against the US dollar isn't

necessarily the best baseline comparison asset because if in the next decade everything essentially becomes 75% more expensive as new liquidity enters the system and other comparable markets are increasing through inflation and debasement then we need to look at Bitcoin as not just the asset that can increase our US dollar terms but you know we want to be able to look at Bitcoin as the asset we can store our wealth in to in 5 10 20 years time know that it's actually acred value and rather than buying, you know, a small little terrace house, maybe we can buy, you know, the nice little villa in in the Spanish countryside or something, we want to be able to look at Bitcoin as the asset that we have confidence is retaining and accumulating additional purchasing power. So you think in this

in this asset growth which you're basically telling me between now and 2036 in the next 10 years we're going to see a 75% rise growth in just total global liquid assets essentially. You're telling me that Bitcoin has the highest growth potential in that time. >> Exactly. Yeah. That was a much more >> to the point way of what I've been babbling on about for the last few minutes. But Bitcoin as it currently sits at a quarter of a percentage of this global wealth. I mean, if it retains a quarter of a percentage, >> you know, its USD valuation in a decade's time is going to be significantly higher, but it's not actually going to buy us anymore. So,

what we want to see is Bitcoin not just increasing its USD value, but try and climb to 1 to 2% of global total wealth, which I know seems like a pretty trivial task. Seems like a we're all Bitcoiners here. We're all at least investing in the cryptocurrency space. We're looking towards hyper Bitcoinization where we're seeing 10 20 50% of global wealth in Bitcoin. But, you know, slow and steady. I don't want to get ahead of myself. If we see the global wealth increase by hundreds of trillions of dollars and Bitcoin just get one to two% of that then we're talking hundreds of thousands if not billions of dollars per Bitcoin >> right yeah so so okay yeah so if you do that math that if it it's quarter of a percent now if it were to rise to 1% of uh the global liquid market I guess you

call what do you call this global wealth share market what do you what do you call this whole thing like just total liquid market >> I don't really have a nice roll off the tongue name for global wealth share is somewhere around the global wealth wealth whatever >> maybe someone in the comment can come up with a much nicer more politic for this >> they will definitely give us the comments shout out to the people in the comments they'll definitely give us an idea they'll tell us how we're wrong uh so so if it so that would be a 4x from here if it were able to do that at the current at the current whatever it's 500 trillion 550 trillion but then if there's also a 75% rise in the total wealth so it' be 1% of that of the current current total trillions plus 75%

as well. So you're looking at at least like an 8x like a six to 8x just on that base idea alone between now and and 2036 >> is napkin napkin math. Terrible napkin math. >> Exactly. And you know that's probably quite a conservative bet based on the trend that Bitcoin has gone on. I mean, we've only been around what, 17 years, and we've gone from literally zero to a quarter of all of the world's wealth. Well, a quarter of a percentage point, I should say. So, it is interesting to see where we could go. But now that we've kind of gone on to >> if Bitcoin could actually, you know, surpass expectations and defy the laws of gravity by being this black hole just sucking in liquidity from all around the

world. As I said, we we'll get back into why this time maybe could be different and maybe why I think, you know, having the four-year cycle is our base case maybe isn't the right play. Now, I know it's a narrative that's just been played out to hail that the institutions are here and, you know, it's not just a retail driven asset anymore. But if we look at that narrative, but actually try and gain some signal from it, some alpha, we can see that when ETFs are bullish, when we see a 28 day average inflow coming into Bitcoin, historically, it's been an incredibly positive signal. This is from a few weeks ago, actually. So, this is just as Bitcoin was hovering around the mid $60,000. It turned positive, but we're seeing millions and billions of dollars pouring into these ETFs. And what we can

see is a really promising indication that even though the Bitcoin price dropped by 50% and if we look at the amount of capitulation we could see in the derivatives markets and from short-term holders looking at onchain data retail holders just seriously have paper hands as soon as we see any percentage draw down. People are selling people are capitulating going all out. If we look at the ETFs now I know these aren't all institutional holders. somewhere between 13 40% likely are. But during that 50% decline, we only saw the cumulative amount of holdings BTC holdings in these ETFs dropped by around 12 and a bit, just under 13%.

>> And if we look to now, we can actually see it's pretty much back towards the all-time high Bitcoin holdings we've had. So, not only did they have this conviction to hold Bitcoin, this new hard money asset with this monumental asymmetric upside opportunity, but they have been so aggressively accumulating during these range lows, which is again very dissimilar to what we've seen in the retail market where during the past few weeks and months, we've seen some of the most aggressive shorting we've ever seen in or we've seen in like the past few years. This is people betting and paying money on more downside price action for Bitcoin. It rates comparable to the previous bare market lows. So at

one point we're seeing people saying, you know, I'm going to wait till October. I'm going to short the market. We're going to make lower lows. At the same time, we're seeing institutions, ETF holders, treasury companies aggressively buying when over 90 95% of the circulating supply is already out there. And that's not even accounting for the millions of loss coins. at some point. I don't want to say supply squeeze because, you know, we might still be some time away from that. But if we do look at the long-term hold of supply of Bitcoin, now this is those that have been holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days. Now, people look at that and say, "Well, that's not a long time, but beyond that point, there's over a 50% probability you'll hold your Bitcoin indefinitely." But if we look at this, we can see this is just past 16 million

Bitcoins. That's over 80% of all Bitcoin in circulation is being held by long-term holders. And the general trend of this is very much in one direction. And I think it's going to continue going in this direction because we can see the new market participants aren't here for a quick buck. They're not looking at Bitcoin to say, you know, I want to get one or two Bitcoin. I want to cash out and buy a new orange Lambo and take some screenshots on my, you know, portfolio tracking app to show off to my friends. They're thinking, "How can I allocate 1 to 5% of my multi-billion dollar fund into this asset, which I can see historically has grown at a 30 to 40% compounded annual growth rate, clearly has the supply and demand economics that favor upside opportunity in a world of massive debasement and growing monetary

irresponsibility. >> And I think this is just slowly compounding over time. all of these slow positive things even though we had this underwhelming bull market which maybe plays into why the bare market's been underwhelming as well but at some point in my mind and I might be a little bit biased but these are all going to come together and and just provide this absolute solid foundation for Bitcoin to be the asset that can support an unfathomable amount of liquidity just rotating into and provide these outsiz returns for us and you know everyone else who's who's willing to take the bet on this you know fairly new and young digital coin.

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They've got a $10 million incubator backing builders who want to make real a reality. Join the Atlantic Ocean test net and start building at milkroad.com/faros network. Okay. Okay. I mean, you're painting a setup that I feel like you you've shared with us before, but can you go back to that ETF chart? Actually, I really like that. I didn't realize that the ETF um holdings, I guess. Or is this is that like a cumulative? So, those are all the ETFs listed at the bottom. So, this is a total of all the ETFs and and their total and that's one. So the cumulative bitcoins is what 1.2 just above like 1.3 or something like that and and like the chart on the the the the chart on the

left that is the >> that is the total bitcoins that they hold. >> Correct. >> Yeah. So net holdings is slightly different because we need to account for the Grayscale Bitcoin trust GBTC which has had uh hundreds of thousands of bitcoin actually go out of it. But if we look at the cumulative holdings over here on the left we can see yeah it's above 1.2 2 million Bitcoin approaching 1.3 million Bitcoin held within these ETFs >> and that is so it's going back it's pretty much back at the same level which w that it was back in what date is that? What was the peak like October? October 6th roughly of Yeah. Okay. So just the peak was just after 1010 and now it is by all accounts it dipped all the way down uh early March there and then now

is basically back to the level it was shortly after 1010. uh in terms of ETF cumulative flows basically right so you're telling me that these institutions everyone buying the ETFs have now have have got out of it from October to March and then now have all have piled back in and basically made back up that deficit that everything had been sold and bought back that same amount back in um that's is that what you're telling me >> exactly yes and we're seeing this while Bitcoin's price is still you know 40 plus thousand >> hasn't recovered back to that same level, right? Okay. So, what's the missing bid then, Matt? Is it Is it the retail bid that's missing? Because then the ETF the ETF holdings are back to where they were when we were the price was at 110, but the now the price is at

80, ETF holdings are back to what they were. So, where's what's the missing bid in that equation? >> So, retail still makes up a majority of network participation. As much as we can look to these, we can still say that a majority of those actually involved within the Bitcoin space are everyday participants like you and I and everyone watching today because we can look to this and say, you know, that's a huge amount over 1.2 million Bitcoin held in these ETFs. If we look at treasury companies, that's well over a million held within the the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies. But, I mean, add all that up, we're still talking about a fraction of the 16 million total Bitcoin that's held by long-term holders alone.

It's still a very much retail driven asset. And I think the reason that we've kind of stalled at the minute, I mean, we can get into some some reasons of of some short-term price action. I'm not sure exactly when this is going out. For example, we can see that we're right at this short-term hold of realized price, which has historically been a pretty major resistance level during bare markets. >> Yeah, >> this is the uh you know cost basis for for new entrance. >> But I think what we've seen in assets like gold and like silver is that strength really attracts strength. people can look to something and say, you know, it might be slightly overvalued or, you know, there's no chance that it can it can climb to new all-time highs looking at something like gold and it'll just continue rallying and rallying and rallying because people

like to see strength in an asset and Bitcoin hasn't really done that yet. So, we haven't seen this big retail influx of new capital going in. And I think there's a few reasons for that. If for example we look at the federal balance sheet we can see that this is a good indication of economic irresponsibility throughout the US central bank or the federal reserve. What we can see is when the federal balance sheet is expanding you know this is akin to the money printer going brewer and people well the government essentially buying assets to try and you know prop up its balance sheet. And we can see throughout the previous bull market, this was in a massive period of contraction. They were quite conservative, we'll say, when it

comes to how freely they were willing to part with their capital. Whereas now, we've actually seen the first time in a long time this has actually been turning to the upside. They've been actively accumulating for their balance sheet. Now, this is a positive thing to see, you know, this fiscal irresponsibility which does favor risk on and speculative assets like Bitcoin. But as well as that, I think at least in more short-term thing, this is a an image that I've been looking at a lot recently, and I know it's a few years out of date, but I can pull up the most recent data in a second.

>> Oh wow. >> If we look at something like the Bitcoin fear and greed index, we can very clearly and obviously see that there's an almost inverse correlation, at least at the extremes. When there's extreme greed in the market, it's usually times doing an opposite of the majority. And when there's extreme fear, when everyone's saying it's going to go substantially lower, usually that's where you can pick up a little bit of a discount. This isn't just true for Bitcoin. If we look at the consumer sentiment index, which is looking at the general positivity and optimism throughout the US economy, we can see that following these periods of extreme pessimism and bearishness and negative outlooks in the economy have always been followed by some of the biggest bull market returns. We can see here in 2022

over 17% 2011 15 2020 uh 2008 22% etc. And when everyone's incredibly bullish, positive, and optimistic, we usually see pretty neutral or even negative returns. Now, as I said, this chart's a little out of date. We've recently hit the worst consumer sentiment we've ever seen. People just are bearish. And I think again it it's kind of contradicting points here to say well Bitcoin is struggling because people are bearish but we should expect things to go up because people are bearish. But I think because retail still are the vast majority of Bitcoin participants. If people are a little hesitant I think we need to see some strength to allow new capital to go in and allow people to gain that confidence in the asset to to

feel like they can put more capital into it. But if we do look at something like this, it does give us some indication that people are overly bearish. I I remember a few years ago the contrarian play was to look at the data and think what are the vast majority of people doing? I need to do the opposite of that. Yet the past few months the the contrarian play is to just be incredibly bearish. Everyone on social media is talking about you know the next big great Wall Street recession, the next big great depression and and you know lost decade. And typically in these periods of extreme fear, you know, that's where you get some good opportunities and that's where we currently, as I said, this is a few uh years outdated. Very quickly, I'll actually try and find the the uh newest

data, but it's just interesting to see. It's not just something that is applicable to Bitcoin, but but markets in general. >> So, what are we at now? Let's pull it up. >> 49.8, which I don't know if it'll let me go the full Yeah, this is the lowest we've ever had. Oh wow. >> So people are incredible. >> So why but has it been this low when when the S&P's been at all-time highs >> like that that is you know that's the K-shaped K-shaped economy basically right? Is that sort of it's just like that basically >> the stock market's at all time high but sentiment or jobs or whatever are way down lower right like how is that I definitely I don't disagree it's a good opportunity but I think that there's also an X factor here where it's like traditional equities are doing

better than they ever have. True, that is a valid point. But again, we are at a point where there's only really one solution to get yourself out of a bit of a mess in an economy. And that solution historically and likely will be for the foreseeable >> to print more money. And we're seeing no signs of that slowing down with global M2 continuing to hit new all-time highs after it had a little bit of a pause as Bitcoin was having this, you know, chopping and consolidating around $60,000. But if we just look at when they started rallying excessively to new all-time highs coinciding with the federal balance sheet expansion, this is when we really had the kick up from around $60,000 up towards 80k. And there's no indication that this is

likely to slow down. We're going to get a new Fed chair in just a few weeks time. I'm not sure the exact date on that, >> but by all accounts to to bet against Bitcoin here and to bet against markets in general is a bet for financial responsibility through central banks and the Federal Reserve, which given the current situation is to me not my base case. And I know we're in a we're in a weird time where one tweet from a certain tanned person in the White House can, you know, send markets into turmoil. And it it markets used to be really quite fun where you know you could do some insight and data and do some technical analysis and put some things together and you know you kind of get a little bit of edge there

and now it just seems like one tweet and everything just goes out and we're going to get a 10% candle in either direction. So of course things can change and >> is crypto still fun to you? >> Crypto is still fun to me. I think it's a little bit more suits and ties than it used to be which I don't think is as you know cipher punk. maybe isn't within the ethos of why Bitcoin specifically was created to be an electronic peer-to-peer cash. Now, it's like everyone waiting to see how much Bitcoin seller is going to buy every week, which of course on a short-term basis is probably good for the price, but in a long-term thing, I mean, it's it's an inevitability for for an asset to to grow into what we want Bitcoin to be, but I don't think it's quite as fun as it used to be. But

>> Oh, wow. What I will say just just before we uh kind of change uh change discussion, >> one thing the ultimate driving force and I know I probably say this every single time I come on the show >> the thing that drives markets is supply and demand economics. It isn't news headlines. It isn't what's happening here, there, or everywhere. Like I said initially, I think if you'd have told people a few years ago that during the potential brink of a new world war and huge geopolitical uncertainties that Bitcoin would be rallying and outpacing all other assets, people probably wouldn't believe you, but that's probably because we're we look like to we're out of sellers. If we look at the value days destroyed which looks at

almost the velocity of bitcoin movement by weighting the transfer of bitcoin the amount of bitcoin transferred by the amount of time it actually been held in a wallet and once we get a 30-day to 365 day or one year comparison or ratio of that it basically tells us if long-term large experienced bitcoin holders are distributing their coins. Now, we can see as we were getting these big all-time highs, we were getting these spikes to the upside. Maybe not as high as we did last time because we maybe saw a little bit more of a constant outflur in this most recent bull cycle. But regardless, where we currently are, or at least where we were a few weeks ago, was practically one of the lowest levels we've ever seen. very comparable to other bare market lows because we are just down practically to these long time

frame horizon conviction accumulators of Bitcoin who aren't just here for a quick book and are happy to accumulate it essentially buy one get one free on Satoshi's. >> So what's the prediction Matt? >> What's the prediction? So >> what's the prediction? This is the slide I wait for every time we do these is like you've got your predictions at the end and you even you even brought up the one from last time where I was calling you out. Now I want to know there's got to be this slide somewhere in the deck. >> So here we go. >> This isn't a prediction slide. >> No, it's not a prediction. Okay, it's close enough.

>> But but we what I will say is has Bitcoin bottomed out? In my mind, I think there's probably a 30% probability we revisit around $50,000. But one of the charts I was looking at as Bitcoin was moving down to be like where do I think realistically we could bottom. I think this is a great fundamental chart to to try and predict that and that is the electrical production cost of Bitcoin smoothed out over 14 days or a difficulty adjustment period. This essentially tells you how much it costs to make Bitcoin. And what we can see throughout the entire history of Bitcoin, if you can buy Bitcoin for about what it costs or even cheaper than it costs to mine a Bitcoin, that's a

pretty good deal. And this time was no different. And this is currently moving slightly to the upside and the downside. There's some miners that may be pivoting to AI data centers and stuff. So, it's of course a moving target, but that is around 70ish,000 now. Around that $60,000. We've also seen the 200 weekly moving average also recently surpass $60,000 which again in the previous cycle we did dip beneath this but historically this was one of if not the most accurate level for telling you what the most optimal price was to accumulate Bitcoin and without that big FTX dip it really would have only been a slight drop below. This is now at $60,000. So, I

would be looking more towards a potential double bottom in, you know, a realistic worst case outcome. >> Right now, as I mentioned previously, we're at the 200 daily moving average. We're at the short-term holder realized price. We just had, you know, a pretty big substantial run up over the past few days from $60,000 or at least that region up to mid $80,000. So, a cool off made sense in my mind, but >> I think there's an over 50% probability that the low is in for Bitcoin. Now there's a couple elements to to forming a low in the Bitcoin price action.

There's the timebased capitulation which I don't think we maybe have met the criteria for that yet and the price based capitulation. So price is obvious. Have we had sufficient draw down for people to capitulate and people to say it's all over? It's dead. Write the obituary. You know I'm never coming back to Bitcoin. Now in US dollar terms we can see it's maybe been underwhelming compared to previous bare markets. But in terms of pure raw purchasing power we can see it's been a pretty brutal bare market. So I think in terms of price capitulation, we can probably tick that box. Now time capitulation is just boring people out of the market. It's chopping and consolidating and these fake outs to the upside to get people to believe there's a bull market and it's resumed and they need to go all in

again. Maybe get the bears to change their conviction and then we drop a little bit. Just infuriate people. just allow these people who aren't speculating, who aren't overleveraged, who are more willing to just kind of sit and quietly strategically dollar cost averaging the market to just, you know, get their fair share of discounted Bitcoin. Have we ticked the box of timebased capitulation? For me, it it wouldn't surprise me to see a fairly unspectacular next few weeks for Bitcoin. Maybe a bit of a lull, maybe a bit of a sideways and chop to around the mid $70,000 region, but I think anywhere around 75,000 or below is again just an unbelievable opportunity to quite aggressively dollar cost average into

the market because the asymmetric opportunity is there. Now, if we're talking predictions, I think I seem to remember last time as well I called for a $2,000 Ethereum and that was uh pushed back on quite heavily. And I think I was pretty conservative on that considering I think Ethereum hit about 17. >> You can't now you can't come in here after 35 minutes of your all your Bitcoin charts and then be like, "Listen, you know what sucks though is Ethereum. You can't you can't come in here like that. You can't you can't come and start that at the just throw this shot in at the end, man. You can't do that."

>> Okay, fair enough. That was a cheap shot. That was a cheap shot. >> I don't even hold that much ETH. I just I just think I'm just defending the ETH people that you know who's going to come in the comments for you is the ETH people. They're going to find they're going to find that sentence. Our our ex team is going to our social team is going to find that find that clip and just throw it out there. Just no context. Just Matt saying like, you know, I did say Ethan's going to go down. They're going to come for you. >> Yeah, I'm I'm I'm very much aware of that for for the rational minds within the cryptocurrency communities. I'm I'm I'm ready for the the very rational and and you know nice debates I'm sure we'll have following that comment. But if we

go back to this, this is genuinely still my base case. It was as we dropped beneath that one-year moving average previously. And it is this kind of summer mini bare market where the bottom's probably in a little bit earlier than I thought. But again, probably throughout the month of May, June, potentially even July, we do just kind of have this timebased capitulation where we are just kind of chopping and you know going sideways and generally just underwhelming people. >> For me, I wouldn't go full bull mode until we can reclaim that same 365day moving average. the one-year moving average very similar to the 50WE as well which a lot of a lot of people look towards hold on wait go back to your predictions go back to the screenshot from last time >> go back to this okay so what so which of

these which of these three is the one that's that has happened so far >> the 60% likely summer 2026 mini bare market not the year-long bare market which many people are expecting the traditional >> what if Hold on but Matt what if you compared what if you put the chart on top though cuz look look the bottom The bottom in your red one, the year-long bear is like somewhere in like February, March, and then going into May, there's a rise back up. So, I would say I would I think if you put the chart on this map, we would be at exactly what you exactly your year-long bear chart.

>> These are more for like these aren't exact science fractals. You can't you can't put it on me like that. I Hey, we you we just spent so much time overlaying charts on top of each other, man. Get >> That's We need the picture of the other one. The current >> I think it was it was on your tick list. You needed something to throw me under the bus with >> you did the That's for the ETH people. That's for the ETH people. All right. That's where the ETH. >> No, no. Okay. So, anyway, go back. So, so you think we are in your your moderate case scenario that you had outlined back in December, which is like a mini bear. So a a a pump back through into the summer after like a a bottoming some sometime that has already happened

basically. >> Yeah. So I I don't anticipate at least I I think there's a less than 50% probability. I'm an analyst. I always need to give myself a get out of jail free card. I think there's a less than 50% probability we make lower lows. I think 60k will hold and anything beneath or around 75 to $70,000 for me is pretty aggressive scale in territory. But until we break this one-year moving average at $96,000, which I think will take many, many months from here, I do not think we're fully back into bull market mode. I'm not targeting a new all-time high this year. I think that again, it was just for kind of visual purposes. Don't don't take this as an exact science, but I think this summer 2026 mini bear where we have the majority of the summer

months kind of chopping around being fairly boring and then potentially towards September October time, maybe challenging that 365day moving average and potentially finishing the year at around that psychological six figure territory number of $100,000. To me, that would be a fairly successful year. But of course, >> okay, >> given the correlation we have to equity markets, given the correlation that we have to global liquidity, things can change quite quickly. So, if anything, I would say I'm being conservative there. I don't want to be too optimistic and say, you know, we're going to we're going to start climbing higher. But if I had to bet on Bitcoin's price in six months time being above 100,000 or below $70,000, my money would for sure be on

significantly higher than $100,000. Six months from today. >> Are you writing this down? >> No. November 6th. >> Isn't that the Isn't that midterms day? Isn't that midterms? Isn't that the exact day for the midterms? Are we six months away from the midterms? >> Wow. Right. So, so chop and and run up there and then everyone will get excited at the midterms. >> November 3rd. November 3rd. November 3rd. Okay. So, that's three days three days after the midterms. You think we will be You say at 100K or higher than today? Which one? Which one was that?

>> I I said if I had to choose between 70 or below or 100 and above, I'd definitely choose 100 and above. If I had to put an exact price on it, I you know what? I'll just I'll say $1 and $3,000 321. >> You know, I I'll go I'll go that specific. And 18 cents. >> Um I'll go that specific for you because you know >> at what time do you even capture that? What's what time do you capture? >> That price at any point on that day I'm taking it. If the one ina million chance I actually nail that, it does not matter that I'm printing that out on the wall.

And every single time I come on the podcast, I'm gonna I'm gonna show the print out. >> Hey, you know, listen, Poly Market has the five has a fiveminute Bitcoin uh uh prediction market now that you can play with. So, I feel like that's that's perfect for that kind of prediction, man. You could you could go do that all day. >> Please don't please don't make five minute poly market prediction trades, people. that you know I don't want to say that is financial advice but please do not gamble on the fiveminute chart on poly market >> that is like when you go to poly market that's literally the f that the two the three you know what the three main things are on poly market right now when you go to poly market is uh US Iran permanent peace deal by December 31st or June 30th and then BTC up or down 5

minute and then hav virus pandemic in 2026. So that's those are the those are the three most popular things on poly market at the current current moment. So, uh, clearly there's appetite, Matt. Um, but listen, man. Uh, another fantastic show. Sorry, sorry to ras you there, but I think honestly your analysis is awesome, man. We love having you on. And I will say it's hard to make predictions. It's, and I don't mean that just to actually make them, but also to um, put yourself out there. So, we appreciate you, man. Um, and not not everything is always accurate, but, you know, we love your analysis. So, I think our our community and our audience love your analysis and and it's great to have you back uh especially when when things are looking a little greener uh than they have for the last few months.

>> Yeah. Well, it's always a pleasure and just in case it is 3 months of of bare market, you know, I might go on holiday again. I might take another vacation. Just get away from it all. >> Just another >> The best way to be wrong is to just not even acknowledge that it even happened. Is is my is my view. No, of course not. >> What's What's Bitcoin? I don't even know. Never even heard of Bitcoin. >> Never heard of it. Never heard of it. >> Yeah. Never seen that. Never heard of it. >> Always always a pleasure. Your audience is genuinely so lovely. So anytime more than happy to come back. >> I have one last question for you. >> If what what was the exact price of the bottom like like 60k or something like that right?

>> We'll just It was around >> I think I think it's every some places I've checked it was like let's just say it ticked exactly 60K and didn't dip below. If we went to $60,010, would you would you consider that like would you consider the previous number the bottom? You know what I mean? Like how does that like or was that a double bottom? Like how would you view that? Like let's say we tick back up and then we go back down at some point in the fall, Q3, whatever. We go back and we land like $5 above the previous low. Is that and then rip back up? Is that then the bottom? Is that where you'd be like, "Okay, defin like there's a double is do you do you follow like a double bottom thing like that?"

>> Oh, it it always kind of depends on the reaction. So, for example, people look towards like the the short-term holder realized price, which is around $80,000, and we ticked above it, and everyone said, "Oh, we've broken above." >> Well, you know, this could just be a fake out. Really, I'd want to see like some some strength to the upside and then some wicks coming back beneath it to show that there's there's buy pressure coming. If we hit $60,000 and boom, V-shaped recovery, then that's, you know, I I can't go much more allin, but that's, you know, going all in on my all-in. If we if we get back down to 60K and just rock it back up off that level, to me, that is another reassuring factor that that is the bottom. If we get to there and it's just a peter and a bit of

a roll over and we bounce a few hundred and it looks a bit rubbish, then at that point, you know, maybe we start looking towards $50,000 or or slightly lower lows. But to me, it it it's hard to predict these things without kind of knowing what the reaction is going to be. I remember when we first hit $100,000 in the previous bull market and I think a lot of people were, you know, expecting this to be this key psychological crazy number which once we kind of >> convincingly broke above, you know, off to the races and then it just kind of ended up being another another price. So, it it's always hard to gauge how the market will react to these things. I mean, if it was easy, everyone would be rich in the market and I would be out of the job. But, you know, it's um it it's

one of those where I it as I think of it now, if we go back down to $60,000, I think we'd be for a very very brief moment and I think we would recover strong and then I think at that point there'd be no doubts in my mind that, you know, the bottom was in. The way we build wealth is changing. Stocks, savings accounts, real estate, that playbook is getting rewritten in real time. Nexo is the platform built for what's next. It's an all-in-one digital wealth platform where you can earn interest on your crypto, borrow against it without selling, and trade a wide range of assets all in one place with 24/7 support and institutional grade security. Oh, and by the way, Nexo is back in the US with new US clients getting 30 days of Wealth Club premier access. That means elevated interest

rates, lower borrowing costs, and crypto cash back on trades. Benefits usually reserved for loyalty program members. Get started at milkroad.com/nexo. I do have one group, a Discord that I've been in for a few years where I remember one specific guy. Every time we'd get close to 100K, he'd be like, "This is your last chance to buy it below 100K." And he would say that every time. And then even when we went above 100K and we'd dip back down until like the mid90s, he's like, "This is it. This is your last chance to buy it below 100K." And I always thought that was ridiculous. Even if I was bullish, I was like, "Listen, man. Like this this will come back down at some point." Like that's it's a psychological thing. Like you're making that up in your head. Like

there's nobody nobody's saying that they're going to stay keep it above that. Like no one no one is the forces of be are not out there propping it up above a certain price, you know, like it's just the market. So um but definitely I don't I don't discount though that it is a big psychological barrier. So we'll see where we go. Matt Crosby 103k and 18 cents in six months today. Can't wait for it. Uh great to see you again, man. >> Always a pleasure. Like I said, happy to come back anytime. It's a lot of fun and genuinely the audience of Milk Road are some of the most, you know, loving. I don't want to say loving. I don't want to get too cheesy with it, but they they probably have some of the the the nicest, kindest comments. I don't get too many Mr. Beast comparisons in the

Milk Road comment sections. Other podcast appearances I get, it's Ed Sheer and Mr. Beast, other terrible ones. So, I I hope I haven't given them any firepower by saying that. >> Terrible. Wait, people think you look like Mr. Beast or Ed Sheeran. People have stopped me in the street to say I look like Mr. Beast. At the Vegas conference, PE I don't really see it that much, but at the Vegas conference, man, it was like multiple people were were like had to double check. Is it Jimmy? I was like, >> I'm not Mr. Beast. >> No way. Oh, you could totally you could totally be in one of his videos or something like that with that kind of thing. Like Mr. Beast gets 500 Mr. Beast lookalikes together and they all have to compete to be Mr. Beast or something. I

could to I could see that happening. >> If he invited me on and it was like a million dollar game show, I'm going to be there. I'm going to be Jimmy in front of everyone. I don't care at that point. >> You'll stay in a in a plastic box for five days if you need to to win that that million bucks or whatever whatever kind of torture he makes people. What was the other one? Ed Sheeran. >> Yeah, that that one is Yeah. >> Just No way. That's just like a you know, are you you have red hair, right? So, it's just this is like any redhaired guy. >> Red hair. This is blonde. This is like a nice >> I can't dude. It's your lighting is all you. I don't I can't I've never seen you in real life, man. I can't tell.

>> It's like it's just a running joke for for ginger people to say it's strawberry. >> Oh, okay. So, it is so it is ginger. So, it is you are redhaired. So, that's that. But I feel like that's like a racial thing towards red-haired people. That's like, oh, you're red hair. You know who's a redhaired person? I know Ed Sheeran. You know, like that's not that's not fair. All right, Matt Crosby, good to see you, man. Thank you for everything. >> Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milkro Daily and Pro newsletters and start investing like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.