Bitcoin's pause phase and Q4 outlook with CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno

Transcript

GM, good morning. Welcome to the Milkroad Show, the daily crypto show that specializes in number goup technology. My name is John Gillan, host of Milkro Macro, filling in today for Jay Hamilton. Today we're joined by the chart master himself, Julio Moreno. Julio is a longtime friend of the show and head of research at CryptoQuant. Julio specializes in onchain data and focuses on insights and market analysis for Bitcoin and digital assets. Julio is going to break down everything you need to know from what's driving the slowdown in Bitcoin to what to expect in September and in Q4 and ultimately the question everyone is asking right now.

Where are we in the cycle and where and when is the top going to be for Bitcoin and for crypto. So, if all that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe, share this episode with someone who would enjoy it. Uh, and as a reminder, in case you missed it, we are on a launch spree here at Milk Road. We just dropped a brand new website and a brand new product, Macro Pro. Uh, and for the first time ever, crypto, macro, and DGEN are all live, all under one roof here at Milk Road. And with Pro All Access, you can get 25% off on this until tomorrow night. You'll unlock reports AMAs signals strategies Discord access, and our full portfolio.

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How are you doing? >> Hi, John. Thank you. Thank you for inviting me again. >> Yeah, we're really happy to have you back. Yeah, >> absolutely. Yeah, I think I always learn a lot every time you're on the show, so I'm really excited to get into this. Um, I thought a great place to start today would be with a question that everyone's been asking. Uh, there's been a lot of reports of whales selling, taking profits. Um, and I wanted to get your view on this. What's driving this? What are you seeing? And what are you seeing on chain about this activity? >> Yeah. So, um, I like to think about this. You know, we I have developed a model just like a mental model of how Bitcoin moves. it moves in, you know, in waves. So, we we we have come from a really a period of, you know, price

appreciation really fast. We are we we touched an all-time high of 124,000 just a week ago. And so, after that, you start to see and and this is what we've seen on chain is that people and investors and traders start to take profit, right? And so that drives you know a slowdown in in in price a slowdown in demand and we enter um a period of of u yeah of overall slowdown and consolidation for prices and and I think that we are we are in that period and hopefully as um as the months progress we um also start to accelerate again right and so we will going to see

that this you know I have some slides and and We're going to see this this model which I have called the PPP or three piece. It's a profit pause and push. So, uh we went through the profit taking part. I think uh right now we're on the the pause period and then hopefully um let's say in the last quarter of this year we'll get the you know the push again to to to new new highs. So, but yeah, that's the that's where where we are right now.

>> Gotcha. Yeah. And that that was where I wanted to start was with this profit pause and push model. I think it's really helpful for investors to think about the the cycle in these terms and just have this framework. So, um step us through this. Let's start with with the profit phase and and and go forward from there. I think that would be a good way to begin with this. Um you've said we've we've gone through some profit taking. Um what what are you seeing as it relates to that? >> Yeah. So here we see in this in this charts what we are tracking is you know when when bitcoin moves this is for bitcoin. So when bitcoin moves onchain uh we know you know when when it moves what was the last price at which it moved right and so we calculate if if

that new transfer is being made at a profit or a loss right depending on the the time and and and the price at which um each bitcoin moved. And here in the chart to the left, we're tracking um the blue area is um the the realized profit. So when it a bitcoin moves, how much you know how much profit that that trader or that investor or that holder realizes, right? So you can see here two periods in which this uh realized profits spike, right? and and they are they coincide with you know after after Bitcoin makes a a really strong rally right so we we saw that in early in the

year in March uh right here so when when we first touched you know the the levels above 100,000 and so you know daily realized profits spiked to 11 billion or 9 billion right so that's that's that's a moment in which you say okay we had a a good rally and then people are starting to realize those profits, right? And so what we the first the first indication is oh we may be entering into a period of the pause, right? So this is the profit phase and and and we we've seen this you know in in the last few weeks repeat again. So we are currently in that profit taking

phase you know realized profits also spiked again to 9 billion in one day 7 billion in one day uh then three billion so so they started to you know holders started to to realize those profits and it is when prices start to you know slow down and consolidate and now we have had some you know some uh um a short u correction right a small small correction from the alt all time highs and this is what we what we saw in the last few weeks. So after a strong rally that took us to a new fresh all-time high, we started to see again, you know, the the profit taking phase or the the profit phase of this uh framework. And a

lot of this was made um a lot of these profits were realized by you know Wales and you can see this for the people that are watching uh the chart to the right here. So this is the same realized profits but specifically for large investors which also spiked uh after we touched the most recent all-time high. Gotcha. Okay. So yeah. So a couple things that stood out to me about this chart that I wanted to ask a couple more questions about. Um it seems like with the most recent all-time high the some of the largest whales have decided to take profits. That's what the chart on the right is showing us. But then something I thought was interesting on this chart on the left about realized profit and loss. It seems like what we're seeing is a re a repeat of this

pattern from the previous profit taking phase earlier this year where you know earlier this year I think you said it started in March when we crossed 100k for the first time we had 11 billion and then 9 billion 7 billion 5 billion so the spikes of profit taking got smaller then bitcoin found a new base and went up to new all-time highs we're seeing a similar thing here it was 9 billion 7 billion now 3 billion do you think that that profit taking phase is now completed and it's behind us and we're now kind of forming a new base to push to new all-time highs. Is that how you would read this data, too, or is there something else you're seeing here?

>> I mean, yeah. Yeah. You see that, you know, the initial spikes are the largest ones, right? And then they tend to come down, right? And then we see a period of uh maybe one, two months of where profits, you know, are really small because we are, you know, most of the holders are already sold, most of the traders sold. So, and then it it it calms down, right? And so, but it takes a a little bit of a of a time to, you know, establish that base and then, you know, the market starts to move uh back up again. So, yeah, it will take takes a few, you know, I would say like a at

least a month to to establish that base. But, yeah, like you said, it's it's the initial spikes are the largest and then it tends to to be lower and lower. Right. And so that would be the pause phase you're talking about. Um I think the the next slide I think you had in this deck was interesting to me about the the tracking of the the cooling and demand for Bitcoin. Walk us through that and tell us what you're seeing there. >> Yeah. So yes, exactly. So we are this one shows like the profit, right? the profit phase and then after that because that those profits coincide with you know looking at the this chart uh of of the next chart of this is our estimate of how demand is growing for Bitcoin the

chart on the on the left uh using onchain data. So the spikes in profit coincide with the you know the the highest demand growth right when when everyone is just you know buying Bitcoin and then it starts to take profit but demand still is still uh growing fast and then the pause the pause uh phase is when demand slows down slows down significantly and and you can see you know it's the same pattern that in the the previous chart right um you know the the spike in demand for example here in this was early in the year uh bitcoin demand was growing at um more almost 300,000 bitcoin this is in accumulated

in you know the last 30-day period right so this is the growth and then starts to slows down and this is like the the pause phase right it slows down uh significantly even contracts and then you see this is the you know the reaceleration of demand that we are in in this that we went uh through in the last few few weeks right 174 uh000 bitcoins and then we are starting to see that you know the slowdown right and and then I don't know if we're going to contract or not but the slowdown is evident um from 174k bitcoin the growth in demand we are only

at 42,000 right now So, so that's you know the the pause phase in which you know everyone bought got some profits then sold uh and then you know it it needs to stabilize for a little bit in order for the next wave to come. uh and and if you see at the to the right the chart to the right this is the you know the reported holdings from ETFs and also from uh strategy you we we take that and and we calculate like the growth right the 30-day growth in their holdings and you can see that it it the demand that we calculate on chain mirrors almost exactly like those those type of

movements you know and right now we we see this the Same for for ETSs which you know their demand has come down significantly in the last few um weeks and also strategy you know that their purchase is is also you know uh not not as high as it was early on and in the year right so it's it's also indicating that slowdown and that pause phase that that I think we are right now >> right okay I have some more questions about this but I wanted you to keep keep moving forward here on the the pause phase you have more data on this you want to share? Yeah, the pause phase I think is is this is some some other you know way to see it >> is to look at the the Coinbase premium

uh the price premium because typically when there's strong demand in the US the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase is you know a little bit higher than on other exchanges because that's uh indicating a strong US demand right so in this you know from since April to Um just a few weeks ago that premium was positive mostly positive. So indicating strong demand in the US and that uh coincide with the with the rally that we have had uh in the last few months but now it has turned turned negative again. Uh so that means you know the pause from the US US investor side right also after you know

the rally realizing the profits and then that that pause is reflected also on on that premium coming down from you know being positive mostly most of the time to coming to now like here you can see in the red area uh it's negative right so it it also has concise that with with the correction that we >> that we saw in these last few days. >> Yep. >> Okay. Um so it it seems like you've got a pretty complete picture here of some onchain data suggesting that we've gone through some profit taking. We're in a pause phase. Um how how do we differentiate this between like you know hey this is just a pause because we can get multiple cycles of these pause or

profit pause and push cycles within a bull run. How do you distinguish these from you know a bare market? Like what are your thoughts on that? like how do you say, "Hey, we're in a pause phase before the next push versus we've topped and we're we're going bearish." >> Yeah, I mean that's um >> bigger question. >> Not not easy, right? To really differentiate between this is a pause within the bull cycle uh and then um or we're going, you know, through a starting a market. Um I I I look at you know several indicica indicators and this is are summarized in in in in this uh in this metric which is

the bull score index and so I look at all of them uh and then if they are you know increasing or not so that's what it if they are increasing then the the this index goes higher uh from zero to 100 100 going um going 100 is bullish, right? Uh >> yeah, >> closer to 100. So, yep. So, >> I've I've seen a lot of people come up with these kinds of like aggregators and signals to try to measure this. So, I really want you to kind of like break down for us how you think about this and like what goes into composing this bull score index and you what what drives the the movements up and down here.

>> Yeah. So it's a combination of several onchain indicators you know valuation indicators which uh which tell you if if the price is overvalued or undervalued like the MBRB ratio and al also we have a uh an indicator that is called the P&L index which also is is tracking that you know how how high price is with respect to you know the the average purchase price for for the holders and so that tells you okay we are you know overvalued valued or undervalued, right? Uh it's tracking liquidity, for example, stable coin liquidity, the growth of that uh if if that's growing, then then it's, you know, it's it's small

liquidity is bullish. If it's not, then that that uh signal uh gets off, right? So, it's tracking also the movement of Bitcoin between exchanges. uh typically uh uh when when Bitcoin is flowing to to Coinbase is because there's from other exchanges there's demand in the US and that drives a lot of the of the cycle. So it's tracking also um traders unrealized profits when they get too high also it's it's a sign of overheating and then they come down and and you know the momentum it's slows down also. So it's tracking all these kinds of onchain data and and try to

summarize this in one indicator that goes from zero to 100, right? Uh so as as as long as we stay above 60, it's considered like we're still in a bullish phase. It has come, you know, below. And and for example, here you you can see like in March when we got all these tariff stock, we went down to the 20s, right? It was really really bearish. But it also depends on how how long we get there uh stay there right typically during bare markets we stay there more than you know 60 days uh or longer and then that tells you you know another

another story but we we haven't had that and and so it it's um it's it um increased again and and to to the bullish area. So right now we are actually in 20 but it's only h has happened you know for two days so it's still early to know right so right and then along the way you know onchain data also tells you uh we were going to see this in in the next slides you know which where are the supports you know considering uh onchain data uh considering the cost basis of of of traders you know the the the price at which most of them uh on average

purchase, right? So that's that's and during bull markets that's a really good uh support for prices. So uh right >> that's that's also you know you have to put all these things together and and it's still not easy but yeah we do our best. >> Yeah. The best audience to distribute your product to your super fans. Duh. But what if you haven't found them yet? That's where Ken comes in. They help businesses scale digital distribution at a price that makes sense. Kj's verified distribution protocol identifies the best users for your product and connects you directly to them. Ready to find real meaningful users for your next big product? Join the KGEN network today at milkroad.com/ken spelled kgen.

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So, I want to just kind of bring a few things to the to the forefront for the audience here about this. Number one, I want people to take away that Julio is making these decisions off of of of data metrics and what's actually happening on chain, not just vibes or sentiment, right? So, that's an important distinction. That's something we emphasize a lot at Milkroad. That's one of the things I love about our Discord is we can share data and and you know, spot check one another. So, we're not trading off of emotions, but we're, you know, having these decisions made in the market based off of data and what's actually going on. And I think your point about Bitcoin is still structurally above its bull market support band. So, this, you know, two-day dip into a neutral phase, right, in a in a cool down phase, you know,

that's much different than a 60-day period of of no movement in the price in a deep bare market. So, okay. I I think you alluded to the next uh thing you wanted to talk about being some key structural supports. Um >> and and do you want to touch on that or do you want to talk about Q3s being seasonally weak like take it wherever direction you want to go next? >> Yeah. So just to take a you know still talk about the pause phase >> uh you know this is this is some um great insight that I like to to look at. typically you know Q3 is uh seasonally it's not it's not really um good for for the price right so we have a you know this there's telling you like there's a

slowdown structurally uh just because of seasonal reasons right and we are in that yeah >> explain just a bit of of why that is for Bitcoin like why is Q3 seasonally weak for Bitcoin >> well it well it is for most um most assets uh you know it's it's the it's the summer season you know people go to you know holiday there's not much you know action or there's not much also you know volume uh you know if you look at the exchange volumes crypto exchange volume they're down they're down significantly from Q1 or Q2 when we we had a a really high volume so there's

there's just less activity right so uh that's that's why we see that reflected on you know price returns or the performance and you can see in in the chart here you know these are this is the you know the average return monthly return uh so here in Q3 it's typically not not that much movement or or return uh and then it's mostly for for for most years it's actually negative uh and so we are in entering into September which is also you typically not good for price returns, right? So, we still have that, you know, from a seasonal perspective, we still have that money in which, you

know, it we shouldn't expect like a a big rally, right? So, that's, you know, why I think that this is also part of the pause phase in which we are and could extend to September. But if we look you know past September and then typically Q4 uh and specifically when we are in a bull market is it's the best quarter for price performance in general uh in general for Bitcoin and in general for for uh crypto assets. So, so that that adds to the expectation also like okay we were in in a really strong rally but we entered the profit taking phase now we are in the pause and then we can

shift to or we may shift to the um to to the uh again to to the acceleration phase right the push phase so that's that's why I I I look at also the seasonality is important to to to have in mind >> I I worked at black rockck for six years and one of our chief traders there, Rick Reer, used to say sometimes the best market opportunity is to just look where nobody else is paying attention. And that is kind of what happens in Q3. The volume drops, people are on vacation, they're not paying attention. It doesn't mean the opportunity is not there or that the bull run is over. It just means, hey, nobody's paying attention right now. Um, okay. So, is there anything else on the pause phase or are we moving now into Yes. the push phase?

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this because this is what everyone is is is focused on right now. >> Exactly. So, so here are the, you know, in this chart we have the the price bands which are based on the average cost at which traders have purchased Bitcoin, you know, onchain. We track these, you know, it's the Bitcoin that uh tends to to not move between one to three months. So, that's like the trader um cohort that we call it. and and and so we we we calculate these metrics for that specific cohort of Bitcoin. Uh and so here we're we're seeing this um this line the the violet line here at the at

the in the middle it's the the cost at which traders have acquired their Bitcoin, right? Uh short-term traders. And so this this Yeah. Yeah. >> How do you define short-term traders, just so I know? >> Yeah. So it's it's the it's the bitcoin that uh hasn't moved between one to three months. So those yeah and so you calculate this cost basis for them. You can and you can see that price tends to you know move between those between within between that line between that u metric around that. And so here you can see like the you know the acceleration phase right here and in the and March

where price goes you know way above that that um that metric and that is part of that causes you know the the profit taking because there's too much profits to be made right and then we start to see like the profit taking and then price comes down again around that level right and then you see the came here, you know, at the end of last year, beginning of this year, right? >> It gets overvalued again. >> Yeah, exactly. It gets overvalued. The push, the pro, the profit, the pause, and then again, right? So, right now, >> the price is around that level. So, that level is um $111,000.

So, it will move around that. So, the price went to 124, right? It was, you know, too much. um profits to be made and then start to take profits and it comes back down to that and it can go lower than that. So, uh here we're tracking like the the unrealized profit margin for those for those traders, right? And so it could it can stop there, right? Or even it could go lower. Uh if you guys can see you know just below the the trader's um cost basis here the realized price is another line which is you know that line represents like a 10% loss unrealized loss and it

tends to you know prices tends to during a bull market to uh found find resistance there. So right now that one is at >> probably is around 99,000. So that's you know like a support that I would expect if we are still in you on the bull market. to answering your question of when do we know right if we're going lower so that will be and that that has been also since since uh in this cycle like the the ultimate resistance for price right so which right now is around you know 100,000 >> right okay yeah so this is something I think is really interesting because

everybody does this a little bit differently like I've seen some analysts say you know the the 50 50-day simple moving average you're saying you know traders who've traded in the last three months, so 90 days. Um, but you know, whichever metric you're kind of using, what you're looking for for like a confirmation of break of support is like, you know, spending two weeks or longer like deep below that. And you're saying we haven't even crossed below that support level yet. And so we're still still holding the structural bull market pretty strongly is what you're saying. >> Yes. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Yes. And you can see that that happened, you know, back in April, May here. So it it it's it actually you know it actually uh uh the price found resistance there at that level and also back in you know

summer last year was like the same right so uh I would expect that uh to happen again uh if we are still in a bull market right >> right so but you're saying that these pause phases are not uncommon and they can happen and and kind of continue for a while as long as we don't have market structure completely collapse um there's there's still structure al support for the bull run. >> Yes, exactly. Yes, exactly. That's why we we look at this to to you know try to try to assess that. Yeah. >> Okay. So, this is the big question. Um we've talked about the pause. Um and we've talked about this potential setup for a push. You've said Q4 you expect to be bullish. Um and you know, without saying, you know, calling an exact date

or or price, what are you looking for for this next push to be your upward target? And like what time frame are we thinking? Is this an October thing? Is it like a February like a Q1 of 2026? Like what are you thinking here? >> Well, typically it um it tops around like late November or early December. That's uh what where typically we have topped. Um and then in terms of levels you know I also use this this same metric but you know to the upside and and this is calculated that you know when whenever these traders have you know an unrealized profit of you know 70% something like that around that

level they start to take profits. So if we are rallying as long as we as long as we don't get to the that 70% of unrealized profit we can go you know higher right so and this this upper bands that's what they're tracking like where's that 70% uh on realized profit and so right now that's 70% you know it's between you know 50 70% uh it's around 156,000 and basically 90,000. So that will be you know in this next if we if we get to this next you know push phase that will be like the levels that I will be you

know um targeting right so based on on this on this u unrealized profit margins for for traders and and you know typically as you can see in this chart you know in March 2024 we actually just go you know price went and touched that upper you know the the the upper band right so here >> and then a little bit in you know in December November 2024 also it got to those upper bands so you you know that price tends to do this when we are in the you know the next push phase right it tends to go to that level in which at

which profits are you know getting extreme right but uh that's that's the level that we are seeing for for Q4 in the next push push phase. >> Awesome. Okay. So, I want to have some time here to to ask you some questions about Ethereum. Um before we move on to that, I just want to kind of like tie this up for the audience so people kind of kind of have understand your thoughts. So, you're saying that we're in we've gone through a profit taking phase in the bull run. We are in a pause phase which you expect to continue in some form let's say through September. But then October, November, you think that we're going to build this new base for a push and traders could could take the valuation of Bitcoin up to 150, 190K. And that's kind of like what

you're expecting to see in Q4. Anything to add there or or nuance on that? >> Uh I mean, you said it actually better than me. Really, >> that's really, you know, great summary there. >> I like to make sure that I understand. So, thanks for the confirmation there. Um, I'd like to move on to Ethereum now and just get your thoughts on this cuz Ethereum has ripped uh from, you know, I think it was like $1,400 bottom in April. It almost touched 5K just a week ago, but it's been bouncing a lot now that it's made these new highs. Um, what are you seeing in this in this movement for Ethereum? Is this like a normal cycle rotation into ETH? Do you think this has legs? Like what what are you

seeing there? What does the audience need to know about Ethereum right now? >> Yeah. So, so Ethereum when it touched, you know, the 1400 that you said, um, we we have this metric. I I didn't show it here. I I don't think I show it here, but we always compare Ethereum to to Bitcoin when we are analyzing Ethereum. Uh, it's always relative to Bitcoin because that's the important part, you know, when you know, who's going to outperform, right? Uh, is Bitcoin going to perform next or Ethereum? So the so the analysis for us is always relative uh for for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, right? So when we when Ethereum touched the 400

uh the 1400 that you that you said it entered into an area um which is was uh extremely extremely undervalued to Bitcoin, right? and and we actually published this. I think it was in May when we published that Ethereum in April touched that area like in late April and then the first week of May we publish this in which we say you know what Ethereum is extremely undervalued uh and historically when it gets there then it starts to outperform Bitcoin. So uh I mean that's what has been happening but you can see this in

you know why because investors you know it was that rotation that you that you said you know they they started to get more exposure to Ethereum that to Bitcoin and you can see uh this in uh this chart to the left is we're comparing here the ETF's holdings of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin right so this is the purple area here and So if it's declining um it means that the holdings of the Bitcoin ETFs are growing faster than Ethereum ETFs uh holdings. So for most of the year or since actually since the Ethereum ETFs were launched that was the case. So investors

in ETFs were favoring Bitcoin over Ethereum. But since May that we started to see this, you know, an inflection point in in that metric and it it it was because now the holdings of the Ethereum ETL were growing faster than Bitcoin and this is what we have seen since that. So that that it's a part of the outperformance of Ethereum you know just investors uh getting more exposure to Ethereum that to Bitcoin right in in the via the ETFs and and the same we see is the same in the futures market which in which we are comparing you know the open interest of the two coins and so it's

the same the same analysis you know uh you can see this in the violet line here uh in which the open interest of Ethereum is growing more than the open interest of Bitcoin. So that tells you like okay in the futures market also you know traders are getting more more exposure now to Ethereum that to Bitcoin. So yeah that's that's the you know the the insight for Ethereum is you know when do these investors and traders switch to get more exposure to to Ethereum not to Bitcoin. So ah here in this this chart is the one I was telling you you know uh it was the undervaluation of Ethereum right here right you see this uh red circles here

and in inside the the green area is when Ethereum is extremely undervalued to Bitcoin. So when when it touched here, this was on in April May of this year and this is when Ethereum started to outperform Bitcoin, right? Uh the problem is what I see right now for Ethereum that it has gone to over valuation really fast because it has increased, you know, from the 1400s to almost 5,000, right? So that's that's what I see for Ethereum is that it has become overvalued too quickly.

uh in that short period of time. That that's what what they're what the data is is telling us. But uh yeah, that's that's why you know we see we saw the outperformance and now uh just uh you know an alert here for Ethereum uh if you are too overexposed it it has become like at least under this metric overvalued compared to Bitcoin. It doesn't mean that it cannot go higher but you know it's it's a relative performance what we're tracking >> right >> well so that's what I wanted to see is like you know I think that a lot of people have been debating this question about what is the the proper valuation of Ethereum versus USD versus BTC is it overvalued right now what is going into

this metric in terms of making this judgment call of the overvaluation of Ethereum like break down what's going into that like I think the chart's pretty clear but like what what data is driving Yeah, here we are comparing that. Um remember in the in the previous chart I told you that we calculate like the average purchase price for traders. Right. >> Right. >> Well here this metric comes from calculating the average purchase but for the entire holder all holders. So we calculate this for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

So it's the the um the the average purchase uh for all the holders, right? And so we make a ratio of this, you know, and and this is you can see this in in the chart is the Ethereum Bitcoin MBRB ratio. So it's it's a ratio between these two uh average prices, right? And and and so the and so we we we um measure this against the relative price, right? because there's also a relative price. So you have the relative cost and the relative price, right? And so if the relative price for for example for Ethereum is too high compared to the relative cost, this is when you know this indicator comes to this red area,

right? And and tells you, oh, it's over Ethereum is overvalued, right? But when the relative price is too low compared to the relative cost, then it's when Ethereum, this metric tells you Ethereum is really undervalued against Bitcoin. So we're comparing that the relative price, right, with the relative costs. >> So are you anticipating an increase in some profit taking and sell pressure for Ethereum in the short term? Is that kind of what the takeaway is from this?

>> Yeah. So take away from this one is you know the price of Ethereum is has now is overvalued could be you know overvalued against Bitcoin after this really really strong rally and this next one is is measuring basically the same the same idea is behind this this this chart but this is comparing you know again the relative but you know inflows to exchanges uh so we're not sure how much of Ethereum is going to exchanges and how much of Bitcoin is going to exchanges and then make this you know this ratio also. And so it tells you like um which of the two are is experiencing like more

more selling pressure because you know the coin is going to exchanges and and so after after this big big rally in Ethereum I mean this chart just went you know off the this metric went off the charts. So, you know, a lot of Ethereum value went to exchanges much more than Bitcoin. So, that's also, you know, it could be signaling that, you know, there's more selling pressure ahead for for Ethereum than for Bitcoin. >> Yeah, it sounds like some people want to take some profits. Um, >> exactly. Uh, I think this is this is really helpful. I think something that's on a lot of people's minds right now is, you know, and you know, you can kind of just speak generally to this topic, but I do think this is a good place to stop.

A lot of people have been wondering are we going to get an alt season? Is this rally in Ethereum the signal that an alt season is coming? Um and then a lot of people are also wondering uh is is this going to like keep going? Are we going to see Ethereum get to higher valuations or is it going to cap out here? Um what are your thoughts on this? Do you see this turning into an alt season from here or is that beyond like where your your research has gone at this point? And then the other thing I want to ask about um is like this extended cycle theory, right? Like we've talked about the Bitcoin bull market. We've talked about how the bull run the structure is still there and a lot of people are saying like you know what you've said like historically the the bull run ends

in Q4 the year after the having but there's a lot of things from the macro perspective like I host Milkro Macro and there's a lot of things from the macro perspective that looks like we're going to get an extension of this liquidity cycle into 2026. What are your thoughts on that? Do you think that there's a a possibility that this just means like alt season's coming? It's just been delayed and it's it's going to be a longer bull run or like I don't know just general thoughts on these things because like a lot of investors are really wondering about this right now. All season and how long does the cycle go? >> Yeah. So I think that during this cycle we have had you know several all seasons I would say but it's it wasn't there weren't like general right it was always in certain sectors

right uh so we we have had that you know all seasons you know but they they they last a little you know it's not like in previous cycles was like a general all And then you know the the the last year of the cycle was just sal season right. Uh this in this cycle is like more like a sectors. And then I would say that you know if you look at Ethereum what has happened in the last few months and you look at these type of metrics then my conclusion would say I mean we already have like this all season actually for Ethereum right uh uh because it it went from extremely undervalued to extremely overvalued in just a few months. So I

would say that you know we we we saw that already for Ethereum. Uh I'm not saying like it it cannot go higher in in dollar terms but uh you know I I would be uh a little skeptical that it could outperform Bitcoin as it has done in the in the last few months just because it's it's now overvalued and it has much more selling pressure. So, so that that that will be you know in general for all seasons I I would say >> uh it's more like a sectoral thing and then we already kind of looking into we already had that like with Ethereum right but it maybe

like uh this extends to other like other coins right for example like um Ethereum had a lot of demand from like the ETFs and had a lot of demand from these companies is also u buying Ethereum as a treasury asset, right? And then maybe we see the same for and we already like kind of seeing that for the other coins like for Salana. I think it was there was an announcement now that you know today that uh they're starting also like a treasury companies but for Salana so it may move like that uh in the coming in the coming months. Um so yeah and in terms of the extended cycle I actually you know calculate it um so

people typically calculate those cycles like from hing or from the low of the cycle right I tend to calculate the cycles um using valuation metrics so when the valuation metric turns you know from bearish to bullish and so if if for example using the MBRV ratio for for Bitcoin. Um if I if I calculate that and and and see at at the the time span of that we are really close to you know being in an extended cycle. It's just uh I think it's just a few a few weeks it it will be longer just in by looking at those

valuation metrics. So if we pick in November, December, we already have like a little bit of an extended cycle actually. I think that under that metric, the cycle would end in like an during September actually. But if we if it doesn't, so if we pick again in November or December, it will be like an extended cycle. That that that's uh >> you know the point. >> Yeah. So, I think what what what I've been thinking about this is it does depend on what metric you're using and how you're measuring to decide where the cycle is and and how long it's gone. I think it's extending in one form or another. Um, and then I agree with that observation about we've already had some

extended some some version of alt seasons. We've had ETH season, but I'm I'm interested to see how that plays out into alt season because as you said, like Bitcoin's not done, right? And if Bitcoin breaks above 150, like you're saying it might later in Q4, who knows what could happen to alts. who knows what could happen to ETH. Um, so I do think that there's there's still some gas in the tank for an alt season and the like you said the the sectorbased alt seasons we've already had to me kind of validate the thesis that alt season is still coming because it shows that there is still interest, there's still demand. Um, people are just kind of waiting to see that rotation happen in full force. Uh, we're at time unfortunately I'd love to keep talking about this all day, but um, let's let's end with this. Where can we send people

to find more of you and your work online? >> Yes, thank you. Um yeah, you can go to cryptoquant.com. So that's our our web page and you can have access to all these charts, all these metrics. Um we have a you know web platform uh query tool that in which you can you know make your own metrics if you want and also an API which is more for like um institutions also use a lot of our data but via the API. So, you just go to cryptoquan.com and and you can see all all what we have there. And for me, if you want to, you know, to to see what I'm publishing, what I'm looking at, it's better to go to X and

and and my handle is there. It's uh JJC Moreno. And so, you can you can go on X and that's where I publish the most. >> Julia Moreno, thanks for being on Milk Road. I feel smarter already. Thank you so much. >> No, thank you. Thank you, John. And thank you for your invitation. >> Absolutely. We hope you'll be back soon. Thanks everyone for joining us. Stay safe, stay bullish, and we will see you next time on the Milk Road Show. Thanks everyone. >> If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milk Road Swap. This is a DEX that we built in partnership with Cow Protocol. Why did we build it? Not to make money, just honestly so we could have a place to do our swaps for the lowest fees that we could find. This is

the fees on Ethereum, Arbitum, and Bass are only 0.15% fees. Uh this is a huge difference from uh other centralized exchanges that charge half a percent or even up to 1.2% fees on their swaps. Also, you can swap on Salana all at swap.milgro.com. Check it out today. You won't be upset. And you can join me in my favorite place to make swaps on chain. As always, if you liked today's episode, please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us so you don't miss out on the next one.

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