Bitcoin has entered a bear market? Onchain data with Julio Moreno

Transcript

I've seen some estimation of the average cost for miners is around 70. So that will be like an an an an inter intermediate price support like around 70. But then the the ultimate one if we really get into this you know long period of bare market it will be around that 56. Bitcoin has been down bad since October 10th but what is going to happen next and what should investors be paying attention to right now? Hello and welcome to the Milkroach Show, the daily crypto show that knows that no matter how deep into fear the market sentiment slides, one Bitcoin is still one Bitcoin. I'm your host, John Gillan.

Today is Tuesday, December 16th, and we are joined today by Julio Moreno. Julio is a friend of the show and the head of research at CryptoQuant. He's also one of the best analysts in crypto and today he's going to give us a closer look at what's driving these recent moves in Bitcoin. So, if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. And also tell us what you want to hear about. We cover the crypto market as best we can on this show, but going into 2026, we want to make sure we're getting your feedback. We want to hear what you want us to cover. If you have a specific guest or a topic you'd love to see covered on the Milk Road Show, let us know in the comment section or in our Discord. Today's episode is

brought to you by Chain Link Links Web 3 to Wall Street. Bridge. Send stablecoin payments instantly. simple, global, friction-free, and reserved ETFs, the onchain equivalent of ETFs. And without further ado, welcome back to the Milk Road Show. Julio, how are you, sir? >> Hello, John. I'm fine, thank you. And thank you for inviting me again. >> Yeah, well, I'm glad to have you here. I think all of us would like to get a little bit more data specific insights on Bitcoin right now. Um, so let let's maybe just start the conversation there. What are you seeing from Bitcoin right now? Obviously, we lost the 90K price level, but we're still holding in the mid 80s. I think we're around 87K right now at the time of recording. What are your thoughts on where Bitcoin is right now? What's driving the market right

here? >> Well, since uh a little bit more than than a month ago, uh we've been publishing this analysis on that we are in a bare market. We entered a bare market. Uh so a bare market has started uh under any basically any metric that you uh analyze uh whether it's onchain or technical metrics or uh fundamental uh we think we are in a bare market and uh that there's um high higher possibility that we see you know lower prices ahead. Could you define Well, I guess I have a couple of questions about that because I've heard a lot of people say this this thesis that we're in a

bare market, but people have a difference of opinion as to when that started or like what marked the beginning of that. Could you just walk us through a little bit of like what your definition of a bare market is and at what point do you think that that began? Well, it it began around early November when you know most of the onchain indicators that we follow uh to to define this they entered into you know bearish territory and and also what we've seen is um you know from the onchain perspective this uh larger investors starting to you know maybe unwind some of their positions uh lower their balances uh and talking about Bitcoin specifically here and so the trend in their accumul ulation turned

turned u to the downside. So that's uh that's when when we yeah started publishing that we we entered a bare market or that the bare market has started when we see this onchain indicators valuation metrics uh liquidity changing the trend and going the trend now going downward and those indicators and then also like the the larger investors also uh lowering their balances and and so that the the trend in the accumulation switched uh to to the downside. So that's when we we we say that's why we say we are in in our market and um I'm going to share some some slides of those metrics that we are using to you know to to monitor that.

>> As you guys are listening to the show you know that there's something hanging over the entire economy and that's AI. And the problem with AI content is that almost no one explains what the news actually means for investors. Our new AI newsletter fixes that. Twice a week, we break down the moves, the winners, the risks, and where the puck might be going if you invest in tech at all. The link is in the description below. Check it out. >> Sure. Yeah. Well, let's let's get into the slides because I know you prepared some some slides for the presentation today. And I want to begin with sort of that big picture and what you described as being sort of these like macro trends for Bitcoin. Walk us through a little bit about what you what you've seen there. What what are these trends that have been driving Bitcoin and and sort

of like where are we now with that? Yes. And and so I'm going to show like these metrics are more of um like um describing the the long cycle, you know, the long bull and then bare cycles. And so that's that's uh I'm going to be focusing more on the demand side of of of Bitcoin like that. That's um you know that the metrics that tell you if demand is growing or not or is it accelerating or slowing down. And we can see this you know the change in the trend of this of these uh metrics and we I call it you know on the on overall like the demand waves there's there's waves of demand ways of acceleration in demand and that

and that's where we uh have our bull markets and then there's waves of you know demand slowing down and then contracting and that's that's when we start like the bare cycles. So I'm going to go over over the overall picture is is I want to show you this like the demand waves. Uh so go ahead. [laughter] >> Yeah, if I can if I can you know the this first one this is a metric that we um developed. It's called the apparent demand. Uh we are estimating here the growth in in in the the for the demand of of Bitcoin spot demand. And this is uh estimating the um annual growth, the year-over-year growth of demand. And you

can see here three uh key events that happened during this bull cycle, right? And those those three events coincide with, you know, the demand wave accelerating, right? And and and and in this period is when we got our our price rallies, right? So uh starting in 2024 this is when you know the the first demand wave occurred uh which uh coincide with the um the launch of the US spot ETF. So spot demand accelerated after that right and we got our price from basically around 40k to uh above 70k that's when we uh reached the first

all-time high of this cycle right uh above 70k and that concise with the ATF then per a period of consolidation and then the second wave uh which saw the man accelerating was after the Trump presidential election win. So that's when you know there [clears throat] was a a lot of expectations about about crypto growth and so uh we had that acceleration again then there was a little bit of a slowdown or a significant slowdown and remember that that was when Trump started like the tariff talk right >> right >> all all of that and then we yeah I think that that you know east that those fears

of tariffs east and then the third wave. I I consider that the tra the third wave was um uh in the summer when a lot of these Bitcoin treasury companies emerged and they started to to buy Bitcoin and so there there was a lot of that driving the price to the all-time high, right? So, and you can see that in the data also like the the the the demand growth accelerating again and that took us you know to the all-time high um of 126k uh that we saw uh around October early October but since then so we had an like um like like a market shock right we had the the big liquidation event of October

10 and then after that what we start to see is like this demand wave, you know, slowing down slowing down significantly and and so and that's evident in in in the chart here. And and one one important aspect here is that how do we define that the demand has shifted the the trend is because like if you see here in in the past in the previous cycle the demand started to also to slow down but it was also crossed below its one-year moving average. So it it's it continues to grow but below trend right until it starts to contract and and right now we are there like u it we we

went in uh from the third wave of acceleration to slowing down and then and now it's growing below um the trend and is is is growing but you know at the slowest pace since 2024 early 2024. Uh so uh and so that's that's why we see this as you know most of the demand growth of this cycle is probably behind us. That's what you know I'm getting from from this from this metric.

>> So yeah that's why what what I what we see or say say that >> got >> uh you know >> in terms of demand the bare market started. Right. >> Right. Okay. So what what I'm hearing you saying is that over the last let's say a bit over a year um Bitcoin has been in a bull market. The demand has come from three large impulses but now a lot of that seems to be behind us and the demand seems to be slowing indicating that we might be moving towards a bare market territory. Um helpful helpful framing for all of this.

Um, I think I want to move on to I know you have another slide on this on ETF flows because we've gotten a lot of questions from our community specifically at Milk Road about ETF inflows, outflows and what that's showing and how that's driving the price. What are you seeing from the ETFs right now? >> Yeah, so from the ETFs um so it's it follows like the same so the inflows or the growth in holdings follows the same paths as the demand wave that I I showed you. But what we see right now and this is a a chart that is um it's plotting the holdings of of ETFs the Bitcoin holdings but you know for each year like 2024 and then is is is the is the growth in holdings in each year right and this

this is 2025 is purple area and so what we saw actually for example last year Q4 was you know an acceleration in the in the increase in holdings of ETF So a lot of demand from ETFs last year especially uh in in the last quarter right and and of course that was also driven by uh after the Trump presidential election uh win. So it was a there was a an increase uh sharp increase in in the holdings for ETFs. But this year we saw exactly the opposite, right? Uh so uh you know since Q4 started what we saw is not not even an acceleration but they became net

sellers of of Bitcoin. So the the flows in ETFs are you know net negative in terms of of the holding growth. So that's that's one of the other um shifts in trends that that we're seeing from these type of entities. Um so this in this case for for for the ETFs that it was supposed to accelerate but I mean in anyone everyone was expecting that but you know we got the exact opposite. >> I see. So, what you're saying is that we saw a huge rush of demand for the ETFs in 2024, especially this time of year in 2024. Um, but in the last couple of months, um, the the demand for spot ETFs

has cooled in the US. Um, I I I do think that that that purple holding up pretty strong is is not, you know, necessarily a bad thing, but I definitely see that recent downturn and I think that reflects the market movements there as well. Um, I I want to ask you about this. There's been a lot of talk about whales selling and people have been worried about that because it's like, you know, overwhelming the demand from from new buyers. Um, and I'd just like to hear your thoughts like what you're seeing on chain or what analysis you've seen that kind of reflects this idea that some of these OG whales are just large holders of Bitcoin have been moving out of their positions.

>> Yes, exactly. And so here for that we we monitor the you know the the balance growth or the holdings growth of this type of entities on chain. So, this is um uh tracking addresses that hold, you know, between 100 and and 1,000 Bitcoin. And and this is important because um this this cohort of addresses because, you know, ETFs, companies, uh treasury companies or companies that are uh accumulating Bitcoin, they typically hold their their their Bitcoin in in in this type of addresses. So, each address will have between 100 and 1,000. And so that's it why it's important to to

follow or monitor this cohort on chain. And if you see this like this chart which is also the one-year growth in in in the balance of these type of entities it's really similar right to the demand chart that I just uh that I just showed. Um it's the same the same trend right like when when we are really in a bull market. Uh so these type of entities accumulate increasingly accumulate you know more more holdings and then when they shift when the the the the trend shifts to the downside. This is when we got you know previously the the the previous bare market and we see this really similar pattern this the in this

bull cycle the current bull cycle you know initially and and especially in starting in 2024 fast really faster growth in this in the balance of this uh type of addresses and then recently in early November uh they're the trend shift to the downside and now is you know still growing on on all terms but is slowing down significantly. So that's why uh we see and and say that you know the the trend shift for um the accumulation in this type of these type of entities. So it's it's overall demand and then we we also see it in ETFs and and we also see it on chain following this type of of entities.

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crypto's version of the S&P 500. Go to milkroad.com/reserve to find out what's on offer. >> Gotcha. I see. Okay. So, it it seems like it's it's it's come down, but it doesn't also seem like it's totally collapsed yet, but you're you're kind of projecting that trend to continue. Um I I we're going to have to kind of see if it does or not, but um it's understandable that you know you think that that's the direction of travel. Um I'm curious what you're seeing on chain in terms of trading activity and trading volume because I think you know what what we've shown here is sort of like spot um and you know accumulation in wallets. Um but I also think that there's a lot of trading activity that drives price action in Bitcoin. What what's that volume been like? What what

are you seeing in those markets um from from traders and per and things like that? Yeah. So for that we follow the funding rates in the perpetual futures market. So and and here what I show is the so the funding rates and all exchanges just to to clarify like the funding rates when they're positive it it it is a payment that you know the the the the traders with long positions have to do have to make to the traders with the uh short positions. Right? So when we are in a in a bull market um you know there's there's this um activity that traders want to to open more you know long positions right and so the funding

rate starts to rise because there's more demand for having long positions so you have to pay more to short to to take the other side of the trade right and so in typically in bull market we see uh you know um an increase in funding rates and so as long as as there's this activity of prices increasing and and people expecting uh a further increase then the the the funding rate also also trends to the to the upside and and and it's uh the contrary in bare markets, right?

Because there's now no demand for open long positions. So the funding rate decreases and and we see the same uh um the same this this um in this in this bull cycle, right? But it seems like it has peaked and now it's trending down again. So and and you can see this because in the last few months the funding rate basically has been you know negative to slightly positive but but uh a lot of in in a lot of periods it's gone is uh had been negative and this is telling you that um there's no not really you know much much slower demand or lower demand for opening long positions uh in in the perpetual food

futures market. So that's another indication of uh you know demand slowing down but in this case is is in the futures market not in the in the spot market. So we see you know also you know the trend you know the long-term trend of the of the funding rate also going going to the to the downside here. >> I wanted to ask you a question about this chart. um the the demand for the funding rate from from this chart what I'm seeing here in in 2021 at the peak there was way way higher than the the peak that you you see here towards the end of 2024 beginning of 2025. Um and I I'm curious your thoughts on like what what to take from that. Does that just mean that there was like way way more euphoria and enthusiasm in those markets

and not here and like how how are you thinking about that that big drop off there? >> Yes. So, so probably less euphoria as you say. Um, so 2021 was uh really um a bull market of uh retail, right? So there was a lot of retail activity. Yeah. A lot of leverage, a lot of retail activity. Uh this is you know this this rally is the you know the postcoid rally and and there was a a lot of stimulus a lot of uh monetary stimulus but also fiscal stimulus directly to to people right and so that fueled I think that that that fueled a really really was a a driver in in that for that market right

in this this period so it's really a lot of retail and and for this cycle we've seen like less retail activity more oriented towards um institutional activity. That's that's like the difference between those those cycles. I think that that's how why you see this and also maybe a lot of act or more activity in this time of um yield searching uh in the futures market like for example for U like USD for from AINA >> right >> what they do is they go short in the in the uh in the futures market right to get the yield so that also you know they

they they grown a lot a lot these uh um strategies uh were used more so that also lowers tends to lower the the the the funding rate. >> Gotcha. Okay. So I I have one other question about this before we go on. Um from from the the price of well let's say like the funding rate that we are at right now that to me on this chart that you're showing it seems closer to what we saw around 2019 to 2020 before the 2021 bull run. It seems like it's at similar levels there. And so to me, what I'm I guess the the question I have in here is that um it seems like a lot of people are expecting us to go into a bare market and for this funding rate to

drop and for interest and and leverage and all these things to drop and decline further. However, you know, I'm I'm looking at this. I'm also seeing we're kind of at a similar level we were in 2020 prior to the big blowoff in euphoria in 2021. And as we just discussed, we haven't had really that euphoria from 2021. What do you think of that thesis as an idea? I know that kind of flies in your face at the idea that we've had this huge bare market, but like I think some people are basically kind of saying that, hey, maybe we just had a really extended prebull run phase and we haven't really gotten to a euphoric blowoff top that might still be coming 2026. Do you have a view on that at all or or or does that outside of your analysis here? I mean I tend to to

believe that maybe we don't have like that kind of euphoria this time. you know, volatility has come down uh for Bitcoin like the volatility is is is trending also to the downside historically, right? And so >> we we have this uh less volatile behavior uh for for prices and and I think that that's is reflected there and and and so that's why you know a lot of people are still expecting that like waiting for that euphoria phase but maybe it's it's not it doesn't have to happen right it's not a like a a rule and and and

also it it I think it it is because you know as as the asset grows uh larger the volatility is is is um is less right there's less volatility so I I I wouldn't I mean it wouldn't be my base case scenario that we have like that that euphoria or or that final um yeah >> the blowoff top coming back >> the blowoff top exactly like we we did in 2021 I'm seeing here more of uh we are at this level right right here.

[laughter] So that could be also the case like okay we have a you know some uh way down to go >> right like late 2022 is more the analog you're seeing here. Okay, got it. Well, I think that that takeaway is is a good lesson though nonetheless that like Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class. There's less euphoria, less volatility. Um and those are all trending trending up in in as the asset class matures. Um I want to move on to this um 365day moving average as I know you have a chart on that. A lot of traders, a lot of investors were watching this very closely as sort of the line in the sand for Bitcoin's bull market support. Um just walk us through your thoughts on this. What what are you seeing on on on

this chart here? >> Yes, and actually for me I have this metric or this like model that we call the bull score model. So it has you know in it it has onchain metrics, it has like liquidity metrics right and all those all those metrics where you know in like signaling bearish bearish phase since early November but you know inside that model I also have like this technical technical indicator right and so this was the last one the last uh indicator that turned like bearish and and and for me this was like the confirmation of of the the the bare

market just uh um as as the price went below the the one-year moving average. Uh and and it has actually I mean historically has uh um worked really well uh in signaling that and you can see this in the in the previous uh when the previous market bare market started. uh once we pierce down that one is it's really difficult to you know to get above that again and so and that's when the bare market started uh in in in the previous cycle and also as long as we are like in a bull market it is a really important price resistance right uh I'm sorry support

yeah support >> so and and we we actually went uh below uh to to that level uh two times in this in this uh bull market. One was in August 2024 uh when there was a selloff related to uh the um the gen carry trade. I think that the bank of Japan here increased interest rates. So that we had that sell off but we went just exactly you know or yeah basically touching that and then when when the tariffs uh Trump tariffs um talk started and and there was some uh trade tariffs imposed in the US we also had that that period of uh price correction but ultimately you know it

was also like the support was the one-year moving average right so this time actually we we we touched that a few times we were um trading uh around that until you know the price just uh crossed below it. It crossed it to the downside um at the it was at the 102,000 uh level. So, and right now it's it's o over there a little bit over $12,000, but now we have, you know, really really crossed that uh to the downside. And so yeah, that's for me >> it's another indication and and you know once we cross down that that line

>> that um it's really takes a lot of time I guess it takes time to all you know uh everyone uh you know to to um position again and then you know getting the price of all that. So yeah exactly. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. So I I was watching this level very closely myself. Um and I still am really because um I was hoping that that it would hold as support when it didn't hold as support. I was hoping we would recover within a couple of weeks. I think we've now spent 5 weeks below it which is a pretty strong confirmation that that sentiment momentum has flipped. I I do think that that retest in 2022 is interesting. We haven't yet retested. Do you expect us to go back

and retest that support? >> I mean that's a really a possibility. um even even in like in bare markets we do have like rallies. So for example in here like in this period was around you know it's December 2020 to March 2021 from from this local low to uh you know retesting again the one-year moving average it is almost like a 50% increase. So it's a it's a it's an important rally, right? Uh so >> it's not it won't be, you know, as a surprise, a total surprise that we do something similar. And so and right now that that level, that one-year moving

average is at, like I said, uh 102,000. So we may, you know, go go there. Uh, I don't know when or if it happens, but it's it's not, you know, >> it wouldn't be like a like a big surprise if we do. >> Sure, tokenized financial products are the future, but there is a big sticking point. They all need to speak to each other. This is a tough problem to solve, but chain link does exactly that. It's the universal language for financial markets, linking Wall Street to web 3, banks to blockchain, and so much more.

See how Chainlink is linking the world by going to milkroad.com/chainlink. Yeah, I've been watching for that, too. I do think at some point we're going to go back up and test this somewhere in the area of 100K, maybe the high 90s. Um, but we'll we'll see what happens with that because that's I think kind of the next thing to watch for. Um, the next question I have is you've got this thesis, we've entered a bare market. Where in your mind is the bottom and and how how are you thinking about calling a bottom on this? And where are support levels below us? >> Yeah. So I mean from the onchain perspective and and I think that this is the one of the best price uh metrics for for for getting a bottom especially in a in a bare market. Uh it's the realized

price. Uh so it's it's basically the average price at which every holder has purchased their bitcoin. Um so and and and if we are like well we are in a bare market but if it extends you know as as in the past eventually the price returns to that that metric which is uh which is the like the average price purchase price for everyone. So we we we've seen this you know in basically all the bird markets that Bitcoin has uh experienced here. I'm not just showing like the the 20 2018 even in the COVID crash it was a really really a big sell off we went to that level then again in 2022 you know

around that level we uh we we formed the bottom and so if we were to go there again right now that level is around uh just a little bit above 56,000. So that will be like the my ultimate uh bottom for the price. Of course in in the um in the in the way down there there's another uh another uh support for prices around 70. It's uh also the the the more um short-term short-term realized price around 70 also around 70. I've seen some estimation of you know the the average cost for miners is around 70. So that will be like an an

an an inter intermediate price uh support like around 70. But then the the ultimate one if we really get into this you know long period of bare market it will be around that 56 maybe this this in I mean this this metric changes every day a little bit. So maybe it's a little bit higher of that, but it's around that area. >> Gotcha. Yeah. And I think that it's uh you know, I think that analysis is helpful. I've seen a lot of people come up with a lot of different ways to try to forecast a bottom. Some people, like you said, have have used the electricity cost of miners, which is around 70 um and the production cost of a Bitcoin.

Um, and so that there's a lot of ways to look for this, but the one thing I take away from this is that we're not like I mean, Bitcoin is in value territory. Maybe not at an accumulation level right now, but I'm I'm personally saying like, hey, this is a not a terrible deal on a on a great asset. Um, I I want to ask a question about something that I'm seeing in this chart, which is that if you look at Bitcoin's price level on this chart from 2024 up till now, it's been staying pretty close to that median line, right? And I'm I'm curious your thoughts on this because if you look back at 2021, we went up and touched that upper bound of that that red line. We got, you know, like we talked about in the that prior slide, there was euphoria, there was a

blowoff top, there was a lot of of enthusiasm in the market. But in this market 2024, 2025, it's been much more muted, subdued, lower volatility, lower euphoria. Do you think that that means that there's a a stronger chance that the bare market is is shorter or less deep or more muted as well and less volatile? Like what are your thoughts around that? Or is that something you've you've not really got any [laughter] thoughts on yet? >> Uh yeah. Yes, I think that's a possibility and and I'm basing uh this idea on for example in in the previous bare market of 2022 you know a lot of the these you know sharp corrections happened because they were triggered by

an you know an important event like in May we had the the 40 to 30 correction really quick because you know Teralter Luna and then all you know from 30 to 20 really quick uh because of the you know uh Celsius and 3AC you know blowing and then finally like the FDX uh FDX collapse on on November. So you know a lot of this bare market was also I would say like maybe exacerbated by those events right for this bare market I mean I don't think that we are you know that there are let's say entities at the same

risk level of you know the the ones that I just mentioned like uh you know there's I I don't see at least until now like a an exchange like FDX, right? Uh or >> another Terral Luna or anything like that. Yeah. >> Yeah. Exactly. So there's less risk on the on on that front, I would say. Uh you know, just based on the on the historical data, that's the ultimate uh bottom that and and I'm I'm still sticking to it into it because it's just what the history has, you know, shown us, right? But as you say, it could be like this is the one that we don't necessarily need to go that that uh um you know uh that level. Uh so

>> and it because it happened the same to the upside, right? So we haven't really had that. So the volatility is also to the downside. Uh so >> if we're less volatile, then it's a possibility for sure. >> Gotcha. Well, yeah. Look, I mean, I think I really appreciate the insightful analysis on this. There's a lot of detail in this data and it really helps give a clear picture for our audience. So, thank you for that. But, I do think it's it's early in this this change in sentiment, early in this change in trend. So, we're going to have to kind of watch what the market does, what it tells us because, you know, just like you said, like in 2017 and 2021, we went up and touched that the the the red line, the euphoria, but you know, then we went down to the blue line. Maybe

because we didn't get the euphoria, we don't get the the the huge crash. Um, but it it's still early. the assets evolving, the way investors are treating it is evolving. So, we're going to have to keep you back coming on to update us as we go forward here. U but thanks for coming on the Milkro show. Julio, where can we send people to find more of you and your work online? >> Yeah, so uh you can go to cryptoquan.com. Uh there's uh that's our platform and you can have access to all and and more of of the metrics that we uh develop. And if you want to uh follow me, I I'm more active on on X. Uh just my handle is JJC Moreno, my last name.

And that's that's where I, you know, publish most of the analysis. >> Julio, thanks so much for being on the Milkro show. I really enjoyed the conversation today. >> Thank you, John. >> And thank you all for joining us. Yeah, I don't know. Maybe we're going into a huge bare market. Maybe we'll recover. Maybe 20 2026 will bring a white swan event that saves all of us. Um, but whatever happens, we're going to be here with you all trying to keep up with the markets, staying informed, and staying data driven. Um, so until the next episode, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish. Happy holidays, and we will see you all on the next episode of the Milk Road Show. Thanks for being here, everyone. Bye. If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milkroad Swap. This is a DEX that we built in partnership with

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