Bitcoin dominance and altcoin cycles from a veteran investor, Akshat Vaidya

Transcript

GM. Good morning. Welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show for anyone refreshing both Coin Gecko and CNN at the same time. I'm your host Jay Hamilton. It's Thursday, June the 26th, and today we are joined by Ashot Vega, managing partner and co-founder at Maelstrom. You guys all know Arthur Hayes, been on the show multiple times. Arthur and Ashot are co-founders of Maelstrom. Ashot runs the deal team at Maelstrom. He oversees all their strategies, their venture strategy, their liquid strategy, their buyout strategy. Previously, he was at BitMEX, and he's also been a management consultant and had a long career in finance, previously working at Granite

Creek Capital Partners. Today, we're going to talk about Maelstrom's investment thesis. We're going to look at how they're positioning in this market, what they where actually believes we are within this market cycle. We're talk about his crypto, his personal crypto portfolio, and also sectors and tokens that he is most bullish on right now. Before we jump in, we've got some big news at Milk Road right now that I'm super excited to let you guys know about. This is kind of a little bit of a message to your future self. Right now, you can get Pro All Access. This is a new product that we are launching right now, and you can get it for $25 a month if you sign up before July 1st. After July 1st, price goes up to $100 a month. That's right, a 3x from

where we are right now. Sorry, a 4x. I can do math right. A 4x from where we are right now. So, make sure hit the link in the show notes and check out Milkro Pro all access because the value is absolutely insane to make sure that you do well with your crypto investing, which isn't easy. And so, we're going to make sure we help you along the way. Today's episode is brought to you by Letin get cash without selling your Bitcoin. It's also brought to you by Nexo, the platform that grows your crypto without locking it away. Without further ado, Ashot, welcome to the Milk Road Show. How's it going, guys? Going great, man. Going great. Pleasure to have you. Really appreciate you joining us today. Uh, I I've heard you I want to start with uh I I heard a quote that you said previously, which was you said,

"Your bullishness is a function of your vintage." And I really like this quote. What What did you What do you mean by that? because I think it really frames a lot of the way our our investment nature deep within us that we maybe don't notice on a regular basis impacts the decisions that we make. Yeah. I think for some background, my personal crypto journey began in 2013 back when um basically everything was happening on two or three exchanges and there was the Mount Gox blow up. You know, a lot of folks uh lost a lot of money, got it back recently. I bought in to Bitcoin when it was hovering in the like a thousandish range for Bitcoin and just kind of bought it because a friend

of mine mentioned it was this cool concept and then shortly after I bought Bitcoin crashed down to like the 200s for 300s 400s for years, right? And uh there was basically nothing happening for a while and then suddenly came out of nowhere was the smart contract concept uh with Ethereum and some of their competitors. Uh then you had some of the the white paper scam sort of craze of 2017 2018. Same kind of thing. Everything crashed again. Then nothing happened again until DeFi summer. And you know, you kind of just if you just follow the cycles, it tends to be the same thing where there's a lot of hype around a very simple concept. The hype uh extends beyond what the actual traction looks like for that cycle. And then um the next cycle it actually meets

the the potential that it always had and just kind of you know keeps you're able to build a more multi-pronged crypto strategy to your um to your in a multi-prong crypto portfolio to your to your investment strategy because now there are more than one types of crypto investments to make. So I think um how that played out tangibly is you know starts off with Bitcoin then you're in the smart contract world then you're in smart contract applications like DeFi and things like that and you just got to keep going and and building up your portfolio from the bottom up like that. I think when I said that your bullishness is a function of your vintage as you see more and more use cases for crypto then you get more bullish and that happens over time as long as you as long as you make it

through and you you don't you don't rage quit along the way with uh and it's impressive that you you've been here this long because a lot of a lot of people that have gone through cycles have have not been able to have the the fortitude to stick it out because there's it's it's very difficult when you when you have these massive drawbacks. What's uh what's allowed you give us your what's allowed you to be to have this consistent conviction over 10 years? I think that if you there's a little bit of it uh that comes from a place of irrationality, right?

You've got to be a little bit delusional that that um that this will work. And I think that's true of any sort of investment to some degree. Even if you're like in a late stage private equity fund and you're doing diligence on a company that's got cash flows and you can project out the, you know, the cash flow statement going forward, there's still some religion to that. Earlier stage you go, the more religion, less science. And um I think for a entirely new asset class, as long as you understand the concept and you believe, you know, there's a reason this should exist, that's a starting point. And then you start attaching numbers to that. you start saying well look it should exist at this valuation for this reason and then you start finding uh justifications for that in the future right so you're

kind of doing some prediction work I think for me it was that delusional belief in this in this concept that eventually this kind of case study or thought exercise would actually turn into something is what kept me going and I think there's a lot of folks who are probably in that boat over the last 1015 years in crypto it it it is it strikes me as one of The most difficult but most important thing for investors investing in technology is that delusional belief that you kind you have to hold on to because along the way everybody will tell you and you'll hear it over and over again and particularly in the media over the past you know few years decade there's no shortage of this

is a scam I mean you still see it all the time right even even people calling Bitcoin a scam right So it is it is very difficult to have that that that strength to stay true to what you see when everyone else does not believe in it at all and is pushing you in the opposite direction. When when you where do you think we are in in the life cycle uh and adoption of crypto? Not not the market cycle, just the adoption cycle right now. I think that particularly with stable coins, we've gotten to a place where there is sufficient adoption to where you could argue that um it's approaching mass adoption, but again, mostly outside of

the US, right? It's mostly outside of developed countries in countries where it's actually very challenging to get access to the US dollar, which is, you know, if you look at the global population, only some like 20% of people live in developed countries. another maybe up to 80% of people live in markets where it's challenging to get access to the US dollar. And I think that you can look at stable coins is one of the first use cases that actually has it's starting to approach mass use cases. And uh with Bitcoin, I think the concept of the store of value is pretty solidified at this point. It's it's a competitor to gold with some aspects of it that are kind of like uh um aligned with the tech sector. As far as smart contracts, we're still getting there.

We're still in like thought exercise mode where uh DeFi and deep pin in particular are probably the two use cases that have come furthest along and DeFi until there's connectivity with real world assets. It's still just kind of for fun. But, you know, the products and the concepts are working, they're not tied to anything that most people give a [ __ ] about. And then DPIN theoretically, I think should become larger than all of DeFi. One day it will be but you think will be larger than DeFi. Okay. Yeah, I think so. But we're talking decade plus defense because certainly no no do you think is I want to talk about deepen all the time. I think it's like one of the most exciting use cases.

We've had Helium on the show. We've had Hivemapper on the show. I'm not going to deny they don't do very well. Like those show the the the retail market the investors are not and and for good reason. DPIN projects don't get the narrative right so okay breakdown why do you think Dpin will be larger than DeFi well I think it's just a function of you know where where is majority of economic activity happening right it's in normal ass companies and there's this long tale of of um supply excess supply across the globe that isn't getting tapped into by demand and uh theoretically across every industry wherever there's excess supply that

should be incentivized to to enter this marketplace that really only defund is capable of coordinating and it's basically going to touch everyone's lives in ways that defi never will because eventually I think every single supply chain every single energy grid every single you know any any basically literally every part of the global economy should theoretically have a a justification to use uh to have a deepen aspect to to how they operate in the back end. Now, obviously, end use case for for the end user. They're not going to feel it. They're not going to know it, but I think it's going to be um it's going to underpin the global economy at some point, but we're talking decades because right now defend is broken.

I I would love to continue to talk about deepen, but uh I'm going to I'm going to redirect us slightly because uh the the listeners might fade away if all we do is talk about deepen, even though I think it is so exciting. Uh okay, let's talk about Maelstrom for a second. Uh, and I want to focus on the liquid fund first and then maybe we can chat about um the other strategies. Uh, on the liquid side, I know that you guys, because we've had Arthur on the show, that around before the Trump dump, you you exited a lot of your positions. Uh, and really because of macro foresight from from Arthur. Um, where are you guys sitting right now on the liquid side?

Are you sitting on dry powder? What's how are you playing this cycle? on how you position yourself for this cycle right now. Yeah. So, as you pointed out, right, we sold a lot of our positions right before Trump took office. Arthur was of the view that look, it's not going to be that easy to implement the things that he's saying. There's a lot of hype. Even if you do believe in the sincerity, it's still mechanically there's a lot of things that have to happen before you get the benefits of of his um presidency. After that, we played it pretty defensively because we were of the view that look, there's going to be, we all know like Trump is a disruptor and chief. U whether you're pro or anti, that's what he does. And um there's always a little bit of uh chaos in the initial

transition period where the world, the markets, the media, individuals start to adjust to the new normal that is the tweeter and chief. So, we took it pretty defensively at that point. Uh, from a liquid standpoint, we I think um, you know, we tend to how thesis driven we are depends on where we are in the in the cycle. The beginning of the cycle, particularly coming out of a bare market, we're like, it's all about the thesis. It's all about these ideas that should exist that don't. Let's find them. They're ideas that do exist that just need better marketing. Let's help tell the stories like activist investors. there's some that are underpriced etc. Right? kind of take this approach and as the cycle continues we become a little bit more

opportunistic and then in the middle of the cycle which we kind of see this is like the middle of a weird long super cycle sort of see where we we passed the tipping point right yeah right we pass tipping point from thesis driven to like a little more opportunistic where wherever there's just weird opportunities we try to take advantage of it so I'd say right now we're we're there with that transition where we're not necessarily you know sometimes we might invest in like the cool new decks doesn't it's not because we believe there needs to be in other decks. It's sometimes just all right there's a farm here opportunity there's something the market hadn't noticed. I think a good example of that is um in Q1 our analyst uh Lucas who is you know kind of one of

those guys just always just hunting on chain for opportunities. He identified that bio this is if you recall there's a bunch of bio related token projects that were going to receive a bio airdrop. He noticed in the documentation that in some cases these projects were going to receive token airdrops uh larger than their market caps. Right? So these are like something the market just missed. The market just didn't notice. Right? And that that's the kind of thing where it's like all right do we think that's going to last? No. But it's an ar we can take advantage of. So we loaded up our positions. We published a report saying hey you guys missed this you guys being the market and then suddenly you know the the valuations ratcheted to to where they should have been and then we exited our positions um at the right time. So I

think that's a kind that's the example of the kind of thing that we look at at this stage in the market might have to get Lucas on the show. Uh I got to ask the natural question though it is there anything that you think the market's missing right now there there are weird things that the market is doing right now that we don't really understand. Okay. Um talk about that I think I mean so okay so right now you got this transition where uh projects are are transitioning to kind of the hyperlquid model right where now it feels okay to be a security back when we were doing token deals a year two three four five years ago you had to get you know go through this silly song and dance to pretend like you're a governance token and get lawyers to sign

off on the fact that there's no way this is security now that [ __ ] is done hopefully and folks are transitioning tokens into like this should be a [ __ ] security. It's what it should be always should have been. So you look at Ether is a great example shilling poor co of ours we were in the first round but you know it's a great example where there's now just a direct correlation between the product and the token in a way that um I think that more and more projects will will do and you saw Hyperlid obviously is the original in some ways to to really market that strategy. So I think that's something that's positive exciting it's happening.

There are other weird opportunities in like public markets, you know, on like NASDAQ listed crypto treasury deals that's just been kind of funny and and a weird uh 2020 GameStopesque kind of phenomenon. I could talk about that, but yeah, I think there's just weird [ __ ] happening right now. Yeah. Yeah. The uh the the the Bitcoin treasury companies, and you could extend that to uh ETH treasury companies or soul treasury companies because we do have some of those, not a ton. Um, it's definitely the narrative that is been picking up and doing quite well and obviously a big part of that is Bitcoin continues to dominate and it feels like I don't know what your take is on Bitcoin dominance versus altcoin season. Uh, do you think

that Bitcoin dominance continues or do you think we're going to see an altcoin season? It's very difficult to predict the timing obviously, but how do you how do you frame that? Yeah, I mean I'm always bullish for Bitcoin, right? It's always that's as far as um our positions. It's always the biggest one. Uh my own personally always is. All coin stuff comes and goes in waves. You got a innovation cycle that happens and you got copycats of the OG. One or two copycats might overtake the OG and you got a bunch of [ __ ] just happens that all usually sucks and then you know when the cycle dies all coins disappear, Bitcoin survives. So I think you play altcoins in the short run, you play Bitcoin in the long run, and then there's like a handful of altcoins that turn into blue chips.

Yeah, the a right last time. This time I think Athena is in that category. Actually, again, we're more we're investors in that. Um but uh yeah, I think that you just play different time horizons at once. Mhm. When when you look at uh actually you know I want to ask what's the last trade you made whether it be Maelstrom Liquid or whether it be personal portfolio. Um we did well the last one we did was uh the public listed uh crypto treasury deal for Salana. That was the last deal that we we did. Okay. So when we look at these crypto treasury talk to us about how you how you view

these crypto treasury companies. Yeah. I mean it's I think the concept makes sense, right? You're giving especially let's say Salana, right? You you're giving exposure to a whole new set of investors that previously couldn't make these kinds of investments because their mandates didn't allow them to. They're whether from LPS or their family offices, you know, they've got restrictions to being able to invest directly in Salana. So it makes sense you're you've got this sort of model whereby you can acquire this crypto usually uh below NAV right for as far as the valuation of the the public stock and um you can also proitize and use this as a um a soap box to to spread the

story story um pretty pretty wide to uh different kinds of audiences. So, I think that's sort of the thesis. The now with these crypto treasury deals in particular, there's some nuances because now they're regulated. And um there's limitations to how the original investors in these rounds, they're called pipes, right? Uh public investment and public uh private investment and public equity. These pipe rounds, um they're not liquid immediately. So, there's some nuances to how you participate in these. But I think if you're retail the the easiest, you know, for your audiences here, very actionable, gamable thing to do is just look up these projects once they list you. There'll be an announcement like UPEX SBET. They'll announce the strategy

and then you'll see that there's this $100 million or $400 million whatever um pipe that came together. Well, one thing you should know is that they're locked. So, if you're retail, you should buy it then because all the all the pipe investors are locked and they can't get out that easily. you ride it for a bit and you just sell before all the all the uh PIPE investors can can actually sell and then you'll probably make some money. So, I think if I were retail, I'd take advantage of that opportunity. Selling your Bitcoin should be a last resort when you need cash. That's why there's Leen, the trusted platform for Bitcoin backed loans. You can unlock cash in as little as 18 hours with no monthly interest payments and no prepayment penalties. They've issued

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cryptobacked credit in under 24 hours. Your assets need a platform built for growth. Join Nexo. Let's let's move on to uh so we talked a bit about deepin let's talk about uh other than deepin what what sectors of of crypto do you like actually you know what I before we do that I want to ask you another question first your personal portfolio give us a little bit of an overview of your personal portfolio because you're a very experienced investor you've been doing this for a long time and I think that one thing that I see a lot in from our audience is 100% allocation to crypto though uh and I'm guessing that is not the case for you. Tell us about

your personal portfolio, how you position and where crypto fits in. So, not just crypto, the full thing. Yeah. Yeah. So, my my broader portfolio is pretty diversified. I'm about 20 to 22% crypto and majority of my portfolio is just a bunch of other [ __ ] So, it's kind of like I I Okay, well, it's skewed at the moment because I in January sold a bunch of my investments across various asset classes and I went about 50% cash which is not sustainable. I'm 50% cash at the moment and it's not going to last but I've got time to figure out. Good time to do it. Good time to do it. That was the right time to do it for sure. I was just [ __ ] great when I pulled it off and then you know at first I was like oh

I don't think I've ever gone this high cash before. Um, I'm usually around 5 to 7% cash, but it just felt like the right time. So, I'm about 50% cash now. It's not going to last. I'm like 15% public equities, like 20 to 23% uh crypto, and then 5% um real estate, and the rest is like alternatives, just various funds and startups and things like that. So, I don't really have any precious metals investments in any meaningful way. And and when When you look to reallocate that cash, where are you where are you looking to reallocate it to? Is will will your

crypto increase? Will your other assets increase? Yeah, I'm trying to figure out, you know, I don't want to be a market timer, but crypto is ex is very cyclical and come bare market, I will shop like a [ __ ] because every single time that I haven't done that, I've regretted it and every time I have done it, been very happy I did it. So, from 2013 today, I I can safely say in the bare markets, I've got my list of tokens that I will buy the [ __ ] out of. So, does that mean you're waiting till the next bare market? And that brings up the natural question of like, let's talk about market cycle for a second. Where do you think we said we think we're middle market cycle? It's this weird

prolonged market cycle that we're in right now. How do you how do you view the next maybe maybe give us like short, middle, long-term like summer, end of year, and then beyond? Yeah. I mean, it's so hard to predict, right? Because you see, let's look at geopolitics for example, right? We we basically just like entered this kind of warlike situation in the market just bounced right back and um you look at um traditional metrics that folks are looking at in terms of macro and here and there there are some alarm bells going off but ultimately everyone's of the belief that you know there's only one answer in almost every

situation which is money printing. So that looks bullish. Uh but on the flip side, you have like from an actual innovation standpoint, nothing's really happening in crypto lately. So then there's no fundamental reason for anything new to happen. But then you look at um the whole Wall Street embrace of crypto that's very bullish. So I think it's just like a lot of stuff looks a little chaotic. A lot of new token launches have flopped, right? There was some stuff that we were excited about. You know, I layer is a great example. I'm not saying it was a flop, but definitely didn't live up to its potential. Um, and there's been a couple other projects like that where everyone was convinced that this is going to be the one and then it launches and then it's like kind of a dud relative to expectations.

Um, so I think for me to get bullish again in terms of thinking that this will be we're entering a new cycle, it'll rely on the actual innovations and if we see net new ideas that are actually unique and differentiated and the token is value cur mechanism is tied to the success of that project, then I think I'd be excited. Right now I'm just more opportunistic. So we'll see what happens. I can't say definitively if there's if we're coming towards the end of it or if this is going to just prolong itself throughout the whole Trump administration. You think that we short term you think that we chop through the summer? Do you think there's potential for a a dip or or a or a pump in either

direction? Summers, in my experience, anecdotally speaking, are usually pretty dull. Falls are usually fun. So, I'm going to take it easy this summer. We're going to I probably don't have to go into this in great detail, but we're we're focused a bit on our buyouts business lately, and summer is a great time to do that. And then we'll get back into the the venture and liquid mindset in the fall. Uh talk talk to us a little bit about that. Why why focus on why the focus on the bio business right now? What's the opportunity that you're seeing?

Yeah, so my background personally is in private equity. before I was in uh crypto and um we've identified here and there, you know, in in our dealings in the last three years since Mailstream was founded in uh 2022, we've here and there po bumped in opportunities to acquire companies, right? there's like for some reason there's a dislocation in liquidity, there's a change in management, uh there's a team that just wants liquidity, whatever it is, there's there's been opportunities and in the back of my mind I've always thought it'd be so cool to have the infrastructure team wise to pull that off and initially Mailstrom was founded in Q1 2023. Um we focused on venture. Then we started adding on a liquid um set of strategies and about six months ago we started

building out um this the early stage ideas of a buyout strategy and we tried to acquire one brand name company that everyone in this industry would know pretty well. Uh the deal died um in February. Then we made another bid to acquire another company that we met at Mara Lago in January and um we almost made that acquisition. That one even more high-profile, but the deal died about two weeks ago. Uh and now we're back out there hunting. These are much harder to do than venture deals, right? It's not like they just send out a book and then if your name's Arthur, you get an allocation. It's it's very different.

It's um we've we brought on my my longtime friend Adam Schlaggel who's who has a background in in private equity as well. He's been in the buy side for almost a decade um in US SAS PV. Uh brought him on board to help us hunt for deals and opportunities. And the whole idea here mindset is that we acquire companies, help the management team grow the business. Um typically that's like a strategic transformation of sorts. So it's not just like we take the business as is grow revenues. is like we add on new lines of business or we verticalize the business or we uh go after their competitor. You know, there's something we do that's unique, create like that stepwise jump over three to five years, let's say, and then exit the company and make money for shareholders and, you

know, everyone else involved as well. And the idea, what's exciting here is that no one's really done this in crypto yet, right? There have been buyouts by strategic, so Coinbase acquires competitor, right? There's been stuff like that, but there has so far not been a financial sponsor of uh of a buyout in crypto, and we hope to be the first ones. It's really interesting. Excited to see you guys. I hope you uh I hope you can get to the finish line on one of these deals because I know how much effort goes into them. It feels like getting dumped or something like that. Like you just you get so close and you're like, I'm in love and then it can just like that just appear on you. So, uh, good luck with those. Uh, oh, before we wrap up, uh, I want to ask you a personal

question if that's all right. Uh, because from, uh, some of the research I did before this show, uh, you you have a very interesting, uh, life philosophy, uh, and experience with micro doing psychedelics, which I find very interesting and something that is uh, um, you know, a little bit connected to crypto. If we talk about like DI and the future of um mental health, what what's your what's your philosophy on on psychedelics and micro doing? Yeah, I mean I think that it's very hard to appreciate your existing state of consciousness if you haven't experimented with other forms and altered forms of consciousness. And

those can happen in many different ways. You can experience it through love, uh through parenthood, through whatever. There's there's many different ways you can experience it. But there's some key ways that um that nature and the earth have given us as well, like diamond mushrooms and you know, Iaska and things like that that um folks have relied on to help guide us for thousands of years. And I don't see why we are, you know, post-industrial society should have been the one to stop. So I'm I'm happy and excited to see that now it's people can talk about it very openly. Um I my f I first dabbled in my teams in um in that world just as you know from an experimentation standpoint and um I think now I've come to integrate it into

some parts of my life uh here and there. You know, I do mushrooms every I try to do it every month to just sit down, you know, home alone on like a Sunday and just uh really come back into tune with myself and my emotions and um micro dose. Macro dose. What's the dosage on on that? That's like um those will typically be like a two to four grams type experience. So, okay. Normal. Normal to macro. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Depending on your tolerance. Uh I had a yeah I've tried micro doing regularly with uh LSD and um shrooms. I don't think LSD was for me.

That was a little bit much and I built a tolerance very quickly. I was doing it at my private equity job which is you know back in it was it was a different different culture. So I had to kind of keep that one on the DL. But um yeah, shrooms I have had a much better experience with and I now it's been a few years since I've done like a regular macro do micro dose with shrooms. I think that one went really well for me. H very interesting. It's uh it it strikes me that Maelstrom should have a like Iawaska ceremony policy. Like if you join Maelstrom, you have to go on an Iawaska ceremony because you all you all you all embody this like like uh intelligence but a consciousness and a respect for humanity and a a a view that

doesn't always come from the finance and the techn tech world. Yeah. I think I I I just think it's super cool that we're living in a world now where that's starting to happen, right? And folks, finance tech whatever politics everyone's opening up to this in a way that previously was kind of frowned upon. So, I think it's cool. Well, thanks for sharing so openly. Actually, it's pleasure to get you on the show today. Really appreciate your time. Thank you. Thanks for having me on. Thanks for listening in everybody. I got to remind you as always, none of today's show is investment advice. I'm not your financial adviser. Actually is not your financial adviser. Should do your own research. You should always think before you make any investments. Before I let you go, I've got to remind you one more

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