Bitcoin demand, ETF flows and seasonality with CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno

Transcript

GM. Good morning. Welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that's all about life, liberty, and the pursuit of 10x. I'm your host, Jay Hamilton. It's Friday, July the 4th. Happy 4th of July, everyone. Why is Bitcoin not at new all-time highs when all we hear every day is that ETF buying is growing and continuing, Sailor keeps buying more, corporate treasuries keep buying more, but yet we're not at all-time high yet. What's going on? Today we are joined by Gio Moreno, recurring guest, one of our favorite chart wizards, head of research at Crypto Quant. He's going to walk us through a chart pack where we're going to look at the supply and

demand mechanics which show that we're in a period of slowdown after a period of accumulation. And the question is why and where are we headed next in the short term? He's also going to give us some ranges for his price predictions for Bitcoin in the next two to three months. Where are we headed next? Are we headed up? Are we headed down? And where do we think we're going to end up in Q3? Before we jump in, as you know, we've got a team of researchers who live and breathe crypto. Each week they drop a beautiful nofluff report on what actually matters in crypto for your investments. And we've got some recent reports that I just need to highlight for you guys. You should check them out

if you haven't already. One is about the hottest DeFi protocol right now talking about Maple, how they grew 5x in five months. If you don't know about Maple and their token syrup, highly recommend you check that out. Also, our monthly market pulse gives you a clear breakdown of what we see for July. We'll link to that report in the show notes. Finally, we just put out a deep dive on a massive macro shift which we believe is going to be a major turning point that we're going to look back on right now. We're going to look back on the end of June and the early July as the tipping point into the next phase of the bull market.

I don't mean that that next phase of the bull market is going to start today or tomorrow necessarily. I'm talking about what's going to happen over the next 6 to n months. It's already happening now. The positioning is already happening now. So you're going to want to read that so you're set up from a macro perspective. Before we jump in, today's episode is brought to you by Nexo, the platform that grows your crypto without locking away. It's also brought to you by Letin. Get cash without selling your Bitcoin. Without further ado, Julio, welcome back to the Milk Road Show. Hello, Jen. It's nice to be back. Thank you for for inviting me again. Always always a pleasure to have you, my man.

Uh okay, let's let's jump into your chart pack that you put together for us today. Uh starting off with uh kind of an overview of market conditions. Uh give us give us an idea of you call this your bull score index. Where where are we at right now in terms of this current market condition? Yeah. So uh this bull score indexes is just um you can see like a summary of of um the most important onchain metrics that we use and it tells you where whether the conditions the overall conditions are bullish or neutral or or bearish and you can see there that we we come from um bullish conditions in

during May June right uh after after um all these um uh micro backdrop that we had with the tariffs and all that, right? And and so we we came out of that and prices uh increased to to above uh 100k again. So that you know that those conditions were very bullish. We got on up until 80 out of 100 for the index, right? Uh so but after that we are in a in a a little bit of a period of uh consolidation in the price but also some of the metrics like um they seem uh have slowed down a little bit. So overall we are in a neutral period right now uh for

for prices and and for for the markets and and that's why you know you we we we get this this question that you that you said that okay why aren't we in a you know posting new highs right uh well some some some of that is because we're in a neutral conditions and we will see some of the metrics that that are indicating that but that as a summary This is where where we are right now in in a in a neutral territory for for crypto and and Bitcoin. And and when we're in this neutral territory, when we've been here in the past, is there an indication of which direction we're more

likely to head next? Well, that's uh yeah, it's difficult to say, right? uh because neutral is you know a lot of these metrics are in like a borderline in which they can go either way right and so it's it's it's more difficult to say uh which one but we come from from the top from from a very bullish condition so it it tends to to slow down and and so to get all the the next impulse up in in in this uh bullish conditions well so it takes time So we could we could you know be there for a longer period or we can even

uh see some some corrections and and and the index go to the bearish territory right because it it tends to to move in you know phases and cycles. So we come from a bullish territory now in neutral. So what we should expect or could expect is get more in into the neutral territory or even a little bit on the on the on the bearish side. Yeah, that's that's uh that's because how they things move in in this in this type of cycles, right? That's that's the trend line that we're sort of on is that we could go more bearish in the short term also because of seasonality, which we'll talk about a little bit about later. You can really see what I love about this chart

is you can really you can really see how the cycle has gone so far, right? Like we were incredibly bullish to end last year when Trump won the presidency and then we hit new all-time highs and we shifted into profit taking and then a lot of macro uncertainty and then tariffs took us into very bearish, incredibly bearish, which was really the best buying opportunity. That's something we've been saying on the show for a long time was during that tariff period. Uh, you know, we actually called April 9th as the the the best buying time, which was not the exact low, but pretty close to the low at that point.

And then, uh, we entered very bullish territory for a period and now we're kind of getting in and the the the question I mean, we'll get into this, you don't have to answer this now, but throughout this show, we're going to look at all these charts. And the main question I think everyone has right now is I think everyone believes we're going to end the year in a very in a very bullish Q4 is always good. It's the Q3 question that's always tough to answer. And with the Fourth of July, I mean, even right now as we're recording, we have way less people listening in to this show right now. Hey, what's up everybody? Thanks for tuning in on your Fourth of July. Or maybe you're not in the US and that's why you're tuning in because it's just a regular day for you because we have way less people tuning

in today than we usually have. And fourth of July is often an indication of like summer starting and people shifting into summer mode which often is the seasonality of selling May and go away. Uh we'll see if we have that though this year because this is definitely a different cycle than past cycles. Uh but seasonality doesn't necessarily seasonality follows the doesn't follow market cycles, it follows the calendar cycle. And so yeah, I don't know. We'll see. Let me let me park that question for now and then we'll bring it up throughout. Uh let's go to um Bitcoin demand. Demand obviously we want to look at both the demand and the selling pressure next. So first let's look at the demand. Uh when we look at demand what are you seeing for Bitcoin right

now? Yeah. So, you know, to continue to answer, you know, this question about why aren't aren't we, you know, into new highs for for the price, right? And if if all these companies and ETFs are are continue to buying, uh well, one of the reasons that when we look at overall demand, not just the demand from these entities, but overall demand for for Bitcoin is is a much much larger market than than than those entities. we see that you know there's there's periods of acceleration in in demand but there also periods of contraction and so from May to June we saw this period of

acceleration in demand right so you can see uh very clear that in the the green area right there and then that's when we got this uh fresh all-time highs above 110 u for bitcoin right but since that there's a there's just a normal period of you know slowdown in demand and even right now there's a a little bit of a contraction. So so even you know prices are you know relatively high they they they remain high. We haven't had like a really a big uh correction but you know the the periods where we get to new highs are conc with the acceleration of demand. So then that's something that we

just uh don't have right now. we we are in a little bit of a of a demand contraction there. So so that's that's the main reason and and yeah I get this this this questions we we get this question of about why we are in the fresh highs. Well I mean it's normal that after a period of acceleration their demands slowdowns a little bit. Yeah we can't just have unfortunately we can't just have demand go go forever. Uh I think that let's go let's go let's continue with the the next slide before I jump in with any questions and I'm going to come back with a few questions.

Okay, let's look at another big part of demand that we everybody seems to be talking about right now is ETF demand and um corporate treasury demand but I mean 95% of corporate treasury demand is led by Michael Sailor and Micro Strategy. how much ETF and strategy demand and buying is happening when you look at the past year. Yeah. Yeah. So, and I like I like to to look at at this, you know, the buying from these entities not not at the level because, you know, they're they're their holdings are always getting to, you know, fresh highs, right? Because they are just buying buying. Most most of the activity for ETFs and Microsoft

is just buying. They typically don't don't sell. And so, you know, the headline is always we are at at all-time highs. um um holdings for these type of entities, right? But but even even there they um they slow down in their buying, right? So you can see that here which I I chart the the growth in their buying the 30-day growth. So they also go into these periods of high buying, you know, faster faster pace and then a slowdown, right? And so we see that in you know in November December after the Trump election there was a a really uh you

know bullish uh sentiment in the market and you can see that how how the buying from ETFs and and strategy uh just spiked right. So we got into the ETFs buying 86k bitcoin and micro strategy uh 171 in the in the the cumulative for the last 30 days. So, but then what we seen since then is it's a slowdown. It doesn't mean that they are not buying or selling, but it's just they're not doing it at the same pace that we got uh you know later um in in in the last year. So, right now it's it's uh they're they're down to just buying 40k Bitcoin in the last 30

days for ETFs and 16 for Micro Strategy, which is which is it's coincided with this also slowdown on overall demand, right? So we we we see the same this same picture in in in ETFs and micro strategy buying uh as as we see for the for the overall demand for Bitcoin. So so that's why also you know you see uh this consolidation in prices and and so what would it take to get us to new fresh highs? Well, again, a pick up in the pace of of buying from these entities or also, you know, for the overall market. Yeah, it's it's very interesting to look at the pace of

buying because you're right, the headlines. I mean, even yesterday, uh, we talked on the show about the big headline yesterday of Standard and Chartered re reaffirming their 2025 Bitcoin prediction of 200K. They said they think we'll be at 135k by the end of Q3 and 200k Bitcoin by the end of 2025. And they highlighted ETF buying and corporate treasury buying as a major catalyst for that. But they're not that's just a headline. They're not the that their their report went into the trend line, but the headline the media headline did not look at the trend line.

And what you can clearly see here is it's incredible to look at this trend line from the ETF perspective. ETF trend line is going down quite a bit. You know, as you said, end of last year, 86,000 Bitcoin they had purchased in the last 30 basically in December and then in in May in like sort of like a mix of May June they purchased 71,000 Bitcoin and now in the last 30 days sitting here on July 4th they only purchased 40,000 Bitcoin. So it is it's a positive it's it is a they are accumulating as you said it's not a decreasing amount but the amount that they're accumulating is going down and then Micro Strategy going down even more right it's down to six it's only Micro Strategy only purchases

so funny they say only purchase 16,000 Bitcoin for one one entity it's crazy uh would you consider when when you look at what ETF or Micro Strategy is doing you consider them smart money like do you like to follow either either one of them more than you follow the other. Uh I think that ETFs uh tend to follow more. Uh but what you see is that they're you know initially when when we this see these periods of acceleration. So the chart is is showing the cumulative for the previous 30 days, right? Um and typically the first days of the of that 30-day period is when you

see like the big spike, right? for ETFs. I I've seen that. So, so you see a big spike and then and then in the daily purchase and then the price increases and then since then since the big spike the daily purchase come slowly come down and come down and come down. So, so, so the first spike is the you know the important in terms of uh I would say like a catalyst right uh the the 30-day if you see it it concise with you know tops right when when the when all that buying is like done right in in that period but but typically like the first few days is when when the the spike comes and and so that's when when

we see then after that the the um the acceleration on the price, right? But yeah, the ETFs are more and then and then after that you see the daily is just slowing down, slowing down, slowing down and that's when we get to the top of the 30-day cumulative uh cumulative buying, right? So, so yeah, I follow tend to follow a little bit more the like the ETFs. Okay, so we're seeing buying but the pace is slowing down as a result of the pace slowing down. it's it's difficult for us to reach all-time highs. We need this pace to be accelerating in order to reach all-time highs. The other thing to consider is that these are not the only

uh buyers or sellers in the market, right? So when we look at the the the rest of the market, what do you see from a demand perspective? Yeah. So this one is uh is also the purchases for ETFs and from ETFs and micro strategy. Also the purple area is like the overall uh what we estimate is the overall growth in demand for Bitcoin, right? And this is um the annual pace of growth. So you know you see there like um in around uh was January of this year right when we get to we got to the top uh from overall demand growth right at that at that time

you know ETFs and micro strategy were an important portion of that demand uh around 46% of that demand growth was coming from ETFs was coming from Micro Strategy uh so that's really important But but you know the the overall demand is much higher than those those two entities right so but they they contribute definitely but now what we see and and this is what people see because you can directly observe ETF and micro strategy demand I mean that's really easy to observe right and anyone can see it but observing the overall demand for bitcoin is a little bit harder right uh because you know you

have to do like a a more in-depth analysis on onchain, right? So the people look at the pace of you know, hey ETFs and micro strategy I continue to to purchase. So why don't we get you know to to fresh highs? Well, because if you see like the overall and you you see the entire market, it's actually contracting and and it's contracting more. So it offsets that those purchases from ETFs and and micro strategy. So if you see like the the rallies in the price is when the overall uh demand pace accelerates. But right now we are in in in a in a in a period with this overall

demand for bitcoin is offsetting those purchases from from micro strategy and the ETF. So that's uh how I will you know answer that question of why are not we are not seeing like the acceleration also in price. Well it's it's just a normal um slowdown in the overall demand for for Bitcoin. If long meetings and judgmental bankers are your thing, Nexo is probably not. Nexo is a premier wealth platform built for people who value their time and money. It's built for people who have idle cash lying around and want it to grow fast.

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this is the move. Get liquidity without selling at milkroad.com/letin spelled ln. So, so the question I got ask here is why why and I know it's a difficult question to answer, but why is the why is the overall demand for Bitcoin contracting? And it's been contracting. I mean, it's funny. Every time you you when you look at this chart, it shows you that when demand peaks is postall-time highs. Every time Bitcoin hits an all-time high, like you could see it, we hit the all-time high last March 2024. It was a little bit delayed, but then throughout the summer, we had

increasing demand, right? And then the same thing when we hit the all-time high in January, uh, again, demand was increasing, but now, yeah, demand is is contracting. Why do you think demand is contracting right now? Yeah. Well, so first of all, like when when there's um you know, prices have been in um in a consolidation period, right? And and you know, the the investors or traders are, you know, opening their positions, right? So, but after a rally, after a big rally, so um there's there's investors and momentum traders, right? and and so they start adding adding and then there's more

demand and and for for Bitcoin but it gets to a point in which the price has increase it um too much and then and then you know there's a lot of profit to be made and so higher prices also lead to demand destruction right there's not much much demand uh to room for demand to increase so that's when this these type of entities start to to to to take profits and so that that's really um slow down the pace of of demand. Uh and that's why we see that you know those cycles of of a first an acceleration when when these traders and investors

are positioning themselves then after a big rise in the price um there's a lot of um a lot of profits to be made and so they start to you know some selling there's come some selling but also demand is not growing at the same pace because they they already deployed like their their their capital right and so it it that's why we we see the slowdown and then the the contraction that we are right now. So yeah, it's basically that that cycle of um you know positioning and then there's momentum and but then it you know the demand demand destruction and then taking profits and that that's what how we get there again into into a slowdown of demand. So it's

basically this cycle that repeats, right? And repeats when that that cycle can repeat in a very short time frame, right? Like it because it follows price action. Price action can move very quickly, right? Like these aren't you're not talking about like market cycles that last years. You're talking about demand and supply cycles that are, you know, they can move in days, weeks, months. Yes. Exactly. So this typically this this cycle of demand it's a two three months in which it we we so we are we are in the still in the you know the long bull cycle right but inside that there's this more short-term cycles of of uh acceleration and slowdown in the

demand and and there's all all these dynamics uh uh playing out uh from traders and from from investors and then yeah they they open position but they also take profit. So that's why you know we get this this type of cycles. So what would stand out to me right now then um is that when we are we are at equate a I I'm going to guess that we've never been at such a high price and had contracting demand like this.

That feels like we probably have not had that before. So to me that would signal that's a very bullish signal right is that hey we're maintaining a very high price close to you know 105 has really established itself as a floor a point of resistance and it feels like we were strong there right even though demand is contracting so I guess that that that to me is bullish do you have any insights in which direction you see demand going for from from here though like will demand do you think demand will continue to contract or do you think demand picks up in the in the in the short term? Yeah. So yeah I mean uh

just adding to your point. Yeah you're right because when we saw this in the last cycle of demand contraction we saw prices correcting you know into the 70 something you know 75k. So was a was a really big correction that coincide with with a correction in demand. Um but right now even demand contracting and we haven't had that type of correction. So that's that's uh you know that's yeah that you're right that's more bullish.

Uh it it it looks better in the I think in the other in the other uh chart um the first one but but yeah I mean that to to your point the second one sorry um yeah that one yeah that one exactly so so yeah that that we haven't had that correction right that that big correction even if the man is is contracting uh but yeah I mean I would I would say that um maybe a little bit more of contraction because that's just how the cycle is, right? But not necessarily like a big correction as in the in the first in the first uh part of the year as you know

the also the macro conditions are not that that bad um as in that period right we we had a lot of uncertainty in that period so so yeah I would say that is it's not as as it doesn't look as bad as the as as earlier in the year that's what I what I would Okay. So, that's that's really positive, but it's interesting to hear you say that you you think we could see some more contraction. We'll come at the end uh in a moment here to your uh short-term price predictions, which will give us an idea of the range that you see that we could go on. Um, okay, let's let's go back in. I'm going to I'm going to skip a slide here to just keep us

moving along. But I want to talk about altcoins for a second. Uh, and when you when you look at altcoins, one of the things that I know you like to look at is how the flow of altcoins on and off exchanges, tell us what you're seeing when you look at that flow right now. Yeah, so I use that those uh that data about flows um or altcoins as an indication of, you know, the market frenzy, right? uh well because uh there's yeah I guess a lot of speculation or more speculation on on altcoins. So for example in this chart we'll seeing like total transactions uh for altcoins

when they're moving into exchanges right so the total transactions so it's it's a good indication of peaks because you know when we have this this uh really um big move in price as you can see like in in in December last year there were also like a lot of transactions for altcoins going into exchanges. So that that for me is an indication of you know it's there's a much more um frenzy in the market. There's a um and there's also a bigger possibility of profit taking right. So after a big after a big price move. Now if we uh fast forward to today

we're still not seeing that uh for for altcoins. uh so the the transaction the transfers of altcoins going into exchanges is at a low level. So that's that's why I I I think that you know even if we have you know some sort of correction for the price it's not it's not yet you know a big one or you know over an overall top because there's no that type of activity uh for all coins in in the market. Yeah. Yeah. Basically to to pull out some real numbers from this chart, uh the in in December we reached 120,000 transactions for altcoins onto exchanges over a seven day

period in it's daily. Is that daily? Seven days. No. Yeah, seven days. Seven days. Seven days. Uh whereas right now we're sitting what? I can't like 20,000 25,000. So, so we're you just think about that difference. 120,000 in a 7-day period down to 25,000 in the last 7-day period. And that would really Yeah. indicate we to me that says we're not we're not at top for altcoins. Not even close. Would would you agree? Yeah, exactly. I mean that that that's from that perspective it's not it's not indicating that like it did in you know in 2020 late 2024 but also in uh March 2024 we saw the same so

that that pattern tends to to repeat uh if you look at alcoin flows so that yeah that for me it's an indication of that there's no like the extreme speculation or the extreme you know flows uh that that led us to like a a big correction, right? Okay. So, that's positive. Okay. So, we've got we've got demand contracting but kind of at a unknown which direction it's headed headed next, right? It's not contracting at an its contraction is not affecting the price as it has in the past. So, that's positive. Then we've got the altcoins feeling like, hey,

we're not we're not yet at a local top. We're looking pretty strong in terms of the flows from exchanges. Let's look at at selling pressure. When we look at selling pressure and let's look from two perspectives. Let's look at the futures market and let's look at the onchain perspective. Let's first look at the futures market. When you look at the futures market, what are you seeing in terms of selling pressure? Yeah. So this uh shows the open interest but the also the change I mean you will see like all my charts basically are changes not not levels because I I think they get more insights from changes than from from levels but uh so yeah in that uh that shows that in May June the change in the

open interest as was uh growing uh you know really fast. So that was the you know we talked about this like you know a lot of long positions had been opened right so and it took us to that price level but after that and you see this in in open interest those long positions those those traders that open long positions at you know 80 or 70 something then they start to close it they start to you know take profits uh as we approach 100 or even above and so the change in the operator also starts to slow down because they're they're closing positions and there are not more more positions added, right? And so basically all this period of price um

consolidation concise with the open interest is just basically uh the change slowing down and then going to zero as as you know take as traders take profit. uh and now a little bit of of uh after this period there's a little bit of uh also traders open again long position. So that's the you know the same cycle of you know open your position you know get to a decent unrealized profit and then taking profits which also uh takes us to again to the to the u start of of that of that cycle. So that's that's what we're seeing also. I mean that also means that you know leverage has been flushed down

uh from the system and that resets everything again. So uh again that's and and as we have been see uh saying all that happened in in in a period where price didn't actually got a um you know a big correction or anything. So, so yeah, that's u definitely some some some uh bullish sentiment there from from the in the futures market, I guess. Yeah, we're in a we're pretty we're in a pretty healthy market right now. Not overleveraged right now. Well, and what you can obviously see here is a lot of smart money essentially. What they did was they saw the macro conditions as a result of tariffs in April. They opened

long positions because they felt that Bitcoin was going to go to to too too higher from the from the low 80s that we were in. We even touch into the 70s briefly and but they closed out those positions once we got back into the hundreds which makes a makes a ton of sense, right? And then now they've closed out those positions but now this is the key. They're starting to reopen long positions again and we're at a higher price. So to me that says smart money thinks, hey, we we're going to go back higher again.

Yes, exactly. I mean that that's the the overall picture there that we've seen for in the future in the future markets. Yeah. Let's look let's look what are we seeing on chain. Now the onchain this is the um the unrealized profit margins. So for traders right uh you know how much how much profit do they are they sitting on right so it's is you know it's the same cycle in which when we get to a really high unrealized profit then of course traders will start selling right and so that unrealized profit will will shrink but we when we got to you know above

100,000 in in um June And we saw this like the unrealized profit peak and then we started to as as they take profit this unrealized profit comes comes down right and so that's always what what's happened and the key thing in this indicator is that typically the the rallies come when the unrealized profit is trending upwards. Right? So right now we're not still there but the I would say like the the bullish part is that that unrealized profit is now much much lower. So there's less incentive for traders to sell right because it is

approaching zero. So yeah, so that from that side is is the positive, but the other side is that we we still need to, you know, see that momentum going up in in this type of of metric. So yeah, but but there's less selling pressure right now uh after after we we got to the first time we got above 100K. Okay, that's great to hear. Uh okay, we're going to get to our price predictions shortly, so stick around everybody. But first, I want to look at one of my favorite uh charts, which is the um MVRV uh ratio, the the zed score.

Uh we've talked about this a lot on the show with various guests. Uh this is really this is if you're going to look at one chart, it's a great chart to look at to see where we are within the cycle. What are you seeing on this chart right now? So one thing first is that um it hasn't come you know all the entire cycle we we haven't gone into the that red area which is uh what has you know marked the tops in in previous cycles right so that's uh when that is indicating or will be indicating that mitin is extremely overvalued uh when we get there and and that coincides with market tops. So we haven't had that in in this

in this cycle. Um the other thing is that it it is just slightly above neutral levels. So it's it's really not zero like will be like the neutral level, right? But um so it's it's really there's a lot of room to increase that you know also but that said what we need is that that metric to uh stay above its one-year moving average. That's uh another key another key indication uh because we want you know it shows like the momentum of the price uh if it's you know increasing increasing um above its valuation you know you you don't want to

be looking at you know price going into its valuation uh so that's that's I mean right now we are it is above but we need to be monitoring that um in in in order to to to know that you know the momentum of the cycle you know it's it's going on right still especially after we we we dipped below the one-year moving average when basically start of this year right like start of 2025 we we were way above it into the end of 2024 we dipped below it start of 2025 and then tariffs push us even down further the macro But now we are back above it. So that

would that would say we're on a positive trend line but it still feels a bit early to to confidently say that that trend line is going to continue from here. Yes. Exactly. Yeah. That yeah that's what I monitor from from that metric. Uh besides you know the over u overheated uh areas is the m you know the momentum uh of the cycle. I I guess that's how I will um define that like is their momentum positive, right? Because if you see this, this is something that I learned in the last cycle. Um so we got into the in I think it was um April like

around Yeah. No, like January 2021, something like that into the overheated, right? Uh area and then we had like a really big correction, like a 50% correction, right? But then prices rebound, you know, rebounded. They bounced back to to fresh eyes actually, but the the indica indicator wasn't in overheated area. And and I remember you know and at that time everyone was saying oh we could go higher because it's not overheated we can go higher this is not the top and but what happened is that that in that metric came down to about below this it's one

year moving average. So what was it was saying is the momentum you know it wasn't there anymore even if we didn't get to the overheated area again. So I mean that after that that was for me what I learned is that also look into the you know to the momentum of the metric not just the overheat or or or you know undervalued. So yeah that's really really important. Yeah. So we're still got a long I I think what this says to me we still got a long way to go in this cycle. We are nowhere near cycle top, but right now shortterm we're kind of figuring it out and bouncing around, right? And we're

rangebound. Okay, let's this is this is a great let's go into uh price predictions uh for the next two to three months. Where do you see uh the the range of price that could happen for Bitcoin? Yeah. So yeah, this is the uh price bands that we get from from the um this like from the cost basis of onchain traders. Um so we have the upper band, right? The the orange band is right now is at sitting at uh 138. So that's the you know right now that will be like a a top indication uh in the in the medium term, right?

uh and to the downside um because typically in during bull markets prices tend to correct to to this lower bands uh and and or be moving you know between that that realized price of the traders. So that that now th those two bands sit between you know 87 and 99k. So that will be like the more realistic expectations of where prices will would move uh uh for the next two to three months that that will be you know if we get a like a correction if you know we we've been talking about demand contraction if it contracts um a little bit more then you know the resistance

that you would expect is between that like 87 to 99 right but if demand picks up again then the you know and and and the pace especially the pace. So uh that that will be like the upper the upper u resistance for price right now is around that 138 uh you know those those levels for the next two two to three months but you know between that we could be also range range trading. So that I'll ask you a somewhat difficult question to answer probability wise what probability would you give us? It sounds like you would give the the strongest pro probability is is actually a correction

lower back to around 99 right now. Am I am I correct in saying that? Yes. Yes. Because of how the indicators are right now like demand how is it right now contracting, right? So you need to see the the contrary in order to to think about okay we're going to rally to 138. So you know that the starting point is how are the indicators right now. So demand how is it right now it's contracting. So I would I would think that that's uh as long as that is the case then that's you know the pro the probability is higher for for the correction until which price until what level it's around 99 first right so yeah

so yeah when when when you see like these prices right this this possible outcomes for price but which one is you know um as you say more likely well look at how the indicators are and and then you know act accordingly. So yeah, uh typically what you want to see if you want to think, oh prices can move to 138, well I would need to see like demand, you know, the momentum picking up and and and expanding and that would line up with uh a a a few other uh cycles which is seasonality, right? You

know, we've we talked a little bit about before, right? sell in May and go away. Uh this we are entering July and August are typically bad months for markets, right? And and and let's be honest, as you said, uh a lot of a lot of Bitcoin moves based upon ETF demand right now. Well, and who are the ETF buyers? They are the seller may go away buyers. Like that's who's buying the ETF. So I could see that demand continuing maybe to contract or staying stable but I don't know I find it difficult to believe that that that demand is going to get back on a climbing trend line in the short term

in the next one to two months. Yes we have a lot of I want to be clear we have a lot of bullish tailwinds. Yesterday the big beautiful bill passed the house which is a mask of tailwind for risk on assets but that's that's not coming yet and the market unfortunately did not respond to that passing the house. So the market thinks they've already priced that in right now. Now there will be stimulus coming and there will be money printing coming because that's what that bill does. So there is there is a lot of catalyst to come, but I think seasonality and then just the trend lines that you're showing us and also the fact that we did we did just come off of a great rip, right? Like everybody almost forgets, you know, we

were down pretty low as a result of tariffs and a lot of people did very well on that on that buy and on that trade. So, you know, I think very strong. I I think we're showing a lot of strength here right now, but I really buy into the I wouldn't be surprised to see us back into the 90s before we go back to all-time highs and then we finish the year. What do you think more longer term, Julio? You think we uh I mentioned at the beginning um standard and charter prediction of 200K by the end of the year. What do you think?

Um yeah the other indicator for like this type of price bands uh but is it for a longer term uh for the cycle it's around right now I think it's 190 is what it is right now uh for that for that um market top would say it's around that. Yep. Okay. Okay. So 190k market top cycle top for Bitcoin cycle top. Uh yeah based upon but that's but that's right now I think that changes I think what happens we go we we we we we rangebound through the next one to two months and then as we

always do Q4 is a good month for markets particularly in bull cycles we're still in a bull cycle we have a lot of tailwinds a lot of catalyst coming from the macro side from the crypto side etc and I think we could see that number go much higher and we could I don't know it's very difficult it's very difficult to predict where we're going to be at the end of 2025 because I don't think at end of 2025 it's a cycle top like this feels like an extended cycle that will go into 2026 and probably Q1 Q2 uh but I think that that that number could get much higher Julio any final thoughts before we let you go uh well just uh you know keep uh monitoring the metrics this is uh you So crypto and bitcoin it

changes really fast right uh even even if the price is not moving much like we see we see the metrics are moving a lot you know that that is something that you know I I like because uh there's never it's never uh boring so yeah don't just look at the price but just also you know the underlying metrics and then the underlying demand uh that that tells you you know also a part of the story. So yeah and if you want to you know to um get these metrics just go to you know our website cryptocoin.com uh so you can you can start uh following that. Yeah, we'll link to that in the

show notes. Julio will get you back on hopefully in a month or so to uh look at these metrics and these charts once again because as you said they do change and they move so much. Uh thanks so much for joining us. I got to remind you guys as always, none of today's episode is financial advice. I'm not your financial adviser. Julio is not financial adviser. You should do your own research and always think before you invest. And one more time, as I said at the beginning of the show, if you don't know about the Milk Road Research Team, you should check out some of our recent pro reports. The Milk Road Research Team spends all day, every day looking for alpha in crypto investments. They just put out a report about the hottest D5 protocol right now. I'm talking about Maple and their thoughts on their syrup

token, why Maple grew 5x in 5 months and how they see it going from here. We also have our monthly market pulse for July, what our belief is, what's going to happen for July. And the most recent report, which I really love, was all about the macro shift that just happened. Why we think the tipping point in macro just happened and why we are so bullish on the rest of 2025 and into 2026 and the timing that we see for the rest of this cycle. Check those out. Links are in the show notes. Thanks so much for joining in today, folks. Have yourselves a wicked awesome day. Have a great long weekend and we'll see you back again on Monday. If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milkroad Swap.

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