Bitcoin at $80K: breakout or fakeout? John Gillen on dominance and altcoins

Transcript

There's just tons of these major bullish catalysts in the near future and I think that this is something that people are discounting right now. >> What's up everybody? It's LG Doo here and welcome to the Milkro Show, the daily crypto show that manifested this reality. We hit 80K despite joking about it last week. Now it's all chips on the table for the next leg up. Today is March 4th, 2026. What asset would you hold if you had to choose just one for the next 50 years? We might not even be alive by then, but that doesn't mean we can't speculate on our favorite long-term assets. And if you ask my co-host this question, there's only going to be one very obvious answer. And in times where we look like we may break out, it is still worth zooming out and speculating on the long term as well.

Today's episode is brought to you by Cape, the privacy first mobile carrier, and Ferros, the layer 1 build for Real Fi. Where's John? John, get in here, man. What's up? Happy Monday, dude. We're 80K. 80K. We made it happen. We made it happen. We're talking about we did our little like a witch circle last week and it happened. Look at us now. Yeah, it happened. Uh, it's happened, I think, three or four times so far that we've gotten to 80K, lost it, and recovered it. So, that's a good sign. The market seems to be holding its ground here. >> We never touched 80. We didn't touch 80 in any of the previous attempts. 79 >> in the last like 24 hours, 48 hours.

>> Oh, like that. Okay. >> Yeah. >> I thought you meant the last like couple weeks, man. I thought you meant the last to me sign because if we just hit it, touched it and then dropped to 75K immediately, that's like a really strong rejection. But the fact that we keep hitting 80K and and you know keep touching it. We just touched it again recently. Um that's a a strong sign that like Bitcoin is pushing higher and and not getting completely rejected outright on this retest. So I'm cautiously optimistic for the moment. >> I like to hear that. And a lot of people I think like a couple weeks ago were painting this pattern, right, of like look like when we went down to 80K in November, right? And people were doing these kind of lines, right? And then they would do it and they copy paste it

for people on audio only. I'm just showing the last uh what do you is this a bear flag? Is that what people call that [ __ ] Where it like goes down and then goes up to the right does this 45°ree angle to the right and then drops again. Right. So people are like look at this look at this [ __ ] Look at this thing. Oh. Uhoh. It's going to be the same thing. The same thing same stupid thing is going to happen after we after we touched like 76K back in like I know mid-March. People were like same thing. And then it almost did. We went all the way back down to 65K at the end of March, which I don't know that was some more like war news or whatever the hell was going on. But then it didn't happen and now we're kind of breaking out. So

would you say that we are John? Would you say we're safe from like an extreme draw down for the short term if you were doing your best TA? No. >> No, I wouldn't say anything. So far it just >> Come on. This is People want your opinion. You have to tell me something. >> I am telling you something. I'm telling you we have not broken out of the range yet. We are still just rangebound. It We're trending higher. We're going longer than most people thought. Bullish to me. >> Where's the range? What's the range? >> It just keeps this thing just this zone here. I'm just cutting you off. I'm asking you a question and just >> go ahead.

>> It all it all depends on how you draw your lines, right? We we have come through a couple of key resistances. We just haven't, in my view, completely flipped bullish. I will post a lot of crazy stuff when we actually do flip bullish if we do flip bullish. Right now, this is still a a retest of the bare market resistance band. This is still a a bounce off of the low. This until proven otherwise, we're still in a bare market. The rest of crypto, the rest of digital assets are not following Bitcoin higher. Other three hasn't broken out. A lot of other things haven't broken out. Ethereum keeps hitting resistance at 2400. I'm tilting bullish. I think there's a lot of things in the near future that are catalyst for crypto, for Bitcoin that could push us into a bull market, but for right now,

we still haven't seen that major breakout come. That could change, but for right now, I'm just paying very close attention. We're getting closer and closer to a decision point. I'm, like I said, I'm very encouraged by the recent strength of price action we've seen. But until we actually break through some key levels, see some real momentum and volume come through and like a broad participation from other things in the the asset class, it it's still just retesting the highs. And I'm not going to tell everybody to go nuts if if I don't think we've completely broken out yet. So, that's just kind of where I am right now. >> If you're not seeing this, you're trading blind right now. There are real moves happening behind the scenes that most people don't see until it's way too late. Inside Milkro Pro, you can track exactly what our analysts are buying,

selling, and what's on their watch list before it moves. You can try it out for just a dollar for 7 days. The link is in the description. Here's another chart I've been watching. It's the Bitcoin dominance chart, which is now uh well above 60%. I think it closed. Yeah, the last couple days, like in the last like week, it's closed above 60% for the first time in months. uh now might close if it closes here, if it stays around here today, then that'll be the highest close it's had since August uh in terms of Bitcoin dominance. John, is that is that surprising to you that Bitcoin is is outperforming here? We had a discussion about this earlier uh in the short term, but that in this I guess kind of like long-term uh months long here that Bitcoin is reclaiming dominance, I guess you could spin it. I

think that's generally what you're going to see coming out of a bearish period in a bare market like this is that Bitcoin's dominance will rise because Bitcoin generally will lead the market. It will rise first. So this isn't really surprising to me. I think it's kind of a question at this point of like do we kind of top out here around these levels or you know 61 62 or do we go up to 65? Because like I would like to see Bitcoin show some strength and then see the rest of the market begin to participate and outperform and see Bitcoin's dominance retreat a little bit. Um, but if we go back up to 65, you know, that's means that maybe Bitcoin's doing well. The rest of the market's not doing so great.

Um, so I wouldn't really necessarily love to see that, but I'm kind of okay with anything that happens that involves the prices going up at this point. So, >> and that's usual, right? Like that you see after like a bearish range, right? And even you're looking at it uh I guess kind of here last spring where you had this kind of crater and this is we're looking at Bitcoin dominance. I guess I got to overlay this with um actual price action, but if you look last April, just over a year ago, we're down here in the 70 mid70s again, right, during the tariff crisis. And then you've got a huge pop back up to all-time highs in the span of like 20 weeks. Uh and then I guess I got to overlay these. I got to figure out how to do that in Trading

View. I'm very bad I'm a very bad Trading View guy. Anyways, uh but I'm just saying is that that the Bitcoin dominance topped out well before it got to all-time high. Uh which is clearly then, you know, I guess you're telling me that all other coins kind of lag behind Bitcoin, but then once Bitcoin starts to move, maybe after a month or two, and I'm just reading the pattern from last year, if that bullish trend continues, then then maybe the other tokens follow a little bit. >> Correct. That's the general flow of of the crypto markets. Um that's been the general pattern. I don't that'll hold until it doesn't basically is what I'll say about that. But for more on Bitcoin dominance, I'm just going to refer everybody to Ben Cowan. He is the Bitcoin.

>> No, no, no, no. We're gonna put him out of business. Listen to us now. Yeah. >> No, Ben is the guy to go to for Bitcoin dominance analysis for sure. Um, but you like I do think that that's generally what happens. But see, in a bare market and a bull market, Bitcoin dominance can go up while Bitcoin is rising or falling. It's it's all circumstantial. You can't draw like a clear distinction around these things. But in in general, I'm expecting Bitcoin dominance to to show some strength if Bitcoin is leading the market higher. And then hopefully we'll see Bitcoin dominance, you know, fall off as the rest of the market follows it higher and and that goes up.

Now, Bitcoin dominance can go down while Bitcoin is still going up in nominal terms. It just means that the rest of the market is kind of outperforming it. But, you know, we we'll see if that comes back. >> Here it is. I figured it out. I figured out the chart. Okay. So, this LG learns how to use Trading View for the first time. He's six years in crypto. He's never even learned how to use how to overlay a chart on Trading View. Right. So, even Oh, look at this. This is interesting. Even last December. Wait, listen. We listen. Hey, listen, man. It's this is this other than Bitcoin going up, we have to talk about something else. But, u last November when you had a massive massive pump in the Bitcoin price dominance. Oh, no. No, sorry. I'm looking at the BTC USD. Yeah.

Okay. So, blue is the is our price chart. Um, and then and then the actual candles are Bitcoin dominance should kind of be the reverse. But, um, when Bitcoin dominance was at a low, the prices were actually at an all-time high here. Uh, which is pretty fascinating. That's back in December 2024. Josh is looking at this being like, "This is so irrelevant what you're saying. This doesn't matter. >> You just let me know when you're done. You let me know when you're done. >> You let me know when you're Yeah. You gave the You gave the monkey a chainsaw and you're like, "Yep, keep trying to cut the tree, man. Don't cut yourself, though. And then let me know when you're done. I'll cut it down for you, John. Okay. Well, let's talk about this cuz you know what triggered me this morning is in our in our creator huddle

and then even just a few minutes ago when I said look, we got to stop recording because you you started talking [ __ ] You were telling me you're like ETH has outperformed Bitcoin and you meant on like a time frame of like 24 hours, which I don't even know if that's true. Uh but clearly >> looking at the recent pump, that's all. >> If we look at your portfolio though, John, in Milk Road Pro, Milk Road Pro is so sick. Pay a dollar. You can see John's portfolio. Um, in Milk Road Pro, you you your purchase price for Bitcoin is like 66 and now it's up to 80. And for ETH, you have um wrap stake ETH, it's like it hasn't even moved. It's been like the same price since you bought it. So, I would say that in the last like two

months, Bitcoin is a clear outperformer. >> Store of value. Store of value thesis there. Uh, yeah. Look, I'm I I think what you're describing is exactly what we just talked about on the Bitcoin dominance chart, right? Bitcoin is going up right now because it's leading the market. That eventually changes, I think. Um I'm Yeah, I don't know. I don't really know if there's a question on all this. My view on this is that I'm extremely bullish on both Bitcoin and Ethereum. They're both long-term buy and holds for me. There's different thesises behind both of those assets, and they're both strong. And so, I'm kind of patient with both of those. Um, I'm I'm I think curious to see what happens with the ETH BTC ratio from here because it's um kind of in the middle of of an oscillation range that it has been in before. So,

I'm curious to see if it it drops down to the the lower end of that range or if, you know, we kind of see this um hold its value against Bitcoin and turn around and go oscillate back to the top of that range. But, we'll see. Either way, I'm I'm still kind of long-term bullish on both of those assets and comfortable to to wait while the thesis plays out. Do how do you feel about Caleb Franson's tweet which was your buddy Caleb Franson has been on the on this show and I think on the macro show a few times. I'm just going to read it out. So, let me get this straight. Bitcoin Bitcoin is making a new multimonth highs making new multimonth highs but ETH isn't. XRP isn't. Soul isn't. Suie isn't. BNB hype link others are not. Don't you find that interesting? I guess what we just talked

about for the last 10 minutes. >> Yeah, I I agree. This is a a very valid observation and this is kind of what I'm looking for. I would like to see some additional breadth in the market um to to say that that we have a a crypto bull run as opposed to a Bitcoin bull run. But for the the most most part, my view is that we've only seen a Bitcoin bull market, not a crypto bull market for the last four years. This is what we you gave me crap about this last week. Um, but I I think that that's kind of what we're continuing to see here is that the the market still is bullish on Bitcoin and for good reason. But the rest of crypto right now is not getting a lot of tens attention or investment of capital and that's okay. That'll change. But

like Caleb's just calling out for the moment that this rally this is this rally is just a Bitcoin rally right now. Uh, but that can change. >> Is Caleb last time you spoke to him, is he bullish or bearish in this current period? we're seeing some strength and I think he's noted that and he bought I think a little bit around like 66K I believe somewhere in there. Um but you know we're still this is what I'm telling you too like I'm very bullish to see this recent strength of price but we haven't seen a breakout so nobody's like flipped outright bullish yet. Well not nobody some people are some people are always bullish. Um but you know I think that's where Caleb is is he's still waiting for Bitcoin to prove itself and get back above some of these resistances and moving averages uh that it just

hasn't yet. So um we're just all watching at this point. Okay, my last question for you as I kind of like pepper you with alt season hints uh questions about alt season if we did I I I kind of feel like or at least some analysts I've read are saying like this is a pretty big decision point and this week is pretty critical. I mean obviously people trying to drum up some engagement but that basically now that we are on the precipice potentially of breaking out of that range what Bitcoin does from here even if it holds in this this spot for a long time is going to give you a lot of information about what's to come in the market. Uh John, let's play out a few different scenarios. If we were to hold here for a week or two and then do another big leg

up through the summer to 100K, would you then expect a pretty big rally in alts? Would would that be something we should expect or would it just be Bitcoin's dominating, everything else sucks? >> I think it'll start with just Bitcoin, but then it'll move into other things. That's that's always the way this goes. Like Bitcoin breaks a new all-time high or breaks a new key resistance, a new price level, it brings back in a lot of attention. Like there was this guy um an Anom who's like pretty well known in the Gen communities in crypto Twitter who went on a podcast recently saying that like basically he's done >> went on a podcast or he started his own podcast.

>> Either one. The point is he was basically saying he was done with crypto and then Bitcoin went up to 80K and he tweeted out what are we buying last night again. So it's like it just brings a lot of attention and investment and capital back uh if Bitcoin shows some strength. I really think you're bearing the lead here though that there's a lot more things going on in headlines right now than just Bitcoin at 80K or like Bitcoin dominance. Like to me this is kind of like fidious in the weeds like um academic stuff. Like there's real things happening that are really really moving the markets a lot right now. Um there's a couple things that are top of mind for me. The DTC clearing house which has I think around $110 trillion of assets under custody announced that they're going to be piloting a

tokenization plan u platform in in this summer. Um I believe July is when they're targeting. Um so this is like this this migration towards tokenization that people have been talking about that's going to happen you know ostensibly in two years is actually starting to happen. The New York Stock Exchange is also talking about tokenization projects and moving forward with that. So there's trillions of dollars of capital that are going to change what rails they run on where they settle and they're going to do this through tokenized solutions. Um, so that brings a lot of capital and attention to digital assets. Validates the thesis. Um, and is going to result in a lot more products and services and just economic activity and capital coming to crypto. Um, I think that there's been now $10 billion of Ethereum staked by Tom Lee. He just bought another 100,000 ETH. Um, there's

all kinds of new products and services launching from from Wall Street firms and and bringing money back into crypto into Bitcoin. So, you all these things are happening or they're all playing out. There was an announcement at Bitcoin Vegas that there's an it's an announcement of an announcement, but um the the strategic stockpile of Bitcoin, the US strategic Bitcoin reserve, whatever you want to call it, um they're they're going to be making some kind of an announcement related to that, which means that there's some kind of buying or like budget neutral accumulation going on by the United States. Um that hasn't been announced yet, but that's basically what they said is happening.

So, you can read between the lines on that. Um, so there's just a lot of other things, major catalysts that are going to come into the markets that will move this forward. There's been a compromise reached on the Clarity Act, which will come through and give clarity, and it's really more clarity for banks than it is for crypto at this point. Um, but in any event, that's going to give um clarity for investors, for products, for for new things, new capital, new innovations. There's just tons of these major um bullish catalysts in the near future. Um, and I think that this is something that people are discounting right now is that, you know, everyone expects the calendar to drive when Bitcoin bottoms.

And I think that there are a lot of macro factors at play here that are going to be driving much more capital into Bitcoin and the digital assets overall than people realize or that we have experienced in prior bull or bare markets. So, I think that those are the kinds of things I'm watching here as opposed to just looking at wiggles on on Bitcoin's price or on the dominance chart. To me, all of this is just kind of like some retail specul speculation and some shorts getting squeezed a little bit while they, you know, expect Bitcoin to drop. But the the larger things, the bigger macro drivers of this of this market and of Bitcoin's price action are really positive and getting stronger and we should see some major market moving catalysts soon.

>> Your phone carrier knows more about you than your best friend does. Where you go, who you call, when you sleep, and they're selling all of it. AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, they've all been caught leaking data or cashing in on it. and your VPN, your encrypted messaging app. They can't fix what's broken at the network level. That's where Cape comes in. Cape is America's privacy first mobile carrier. Same premium coverage you'd expect, built with privacy from day one. Your phone's network identifier rotates every 24 hours, so you look like a different subscriber every day. Call logs are deleted after 24 hours. You get two encrypted secondary numbers for signups and 2FA included in your plan.

Plus, SIM swap protection that puts you in control of your number, so no one, not even Cape, can hijack it. Use code milkroad at milkroad.com/gateway for 33% off your first 6 months. Trillions of dollars in real world assets are stuck offchain. Real estate, commodities, private credit, all locked behind outdated systems that weren't built for a global 24/7 economy. The fix, bring those assets onchain. Problem is, most blockchains weren't designed for that either. Feros is. It's a layer 1 purpose-built for realy, a real world financial infrastructure that lets assets be tokenized, verified, and traded at institutional scale. We're talking parallel execution for serious throughput, compliance baked in from day one, and infrastructure that actually connects onchain and off-chain systems.

They've got a $10 million incubator backing builders who want to make real a reality. Join the Atlantic Ocean test net and start building at milkroad.com/faros network. The clarity act percentage of passing on poly market is currently 64%. John, would you expect that to be a sell the news event potentially when it does happen if it does happen like this month or would it be a >> super bullish catalyst like we're never looking back >> possibly, but it's kind of difficult to say in either direction because it it depends on I think some other circumstances around that. Like say the Clarity Act passes and like the same week or whatever they announce that the

United States is buying Bitcoin or or something like that. You kind of have to see how these things shake out. Personally, I would say just look through all of that. Like don't think of it as buy the rumor, sell the news, but just say like, hey, you know, look, last time we had this interview last week, I was tilting bearish on the Clarity Act ever passing. It seems like now they have rapidly reached an actual workable solution. Coinbase has said yes, who was kind of like one of the big holdouts. And so it seems like this is going to go forward and it seems like there's a a now mounting realistic possibility this becomes law. I think that the the regulatory clarity and legislative um let's say um certainty that this gives like the cotification of digital assets as a legal thing that you can do and interact with in the United

States is a huge long-term bullish catalyst and I don't think you should worry about trading around that event. You should just make sure that you're allocated properly for the future reality which is that you know hundreds of trillions of dollars are going to settle in tokenized versions on crypto rails and you need to have some kind of allocation to that in your portfolio in order not to miss out on basically the next century of finance. M you also mentioned this morning John that um when we were talking in our in our creator roundt um you you and zooming out to the broader market which we always have to talk about on this. You mentioned that it looked like we might be setting up for a blowoff top despite the S&P being at an all-time high hitting you know almost 7,300 last week. Uh down a little

bit today but but still at levels not seen since 5 days ago. Um, and the earnings last week were were generally very good for a lot of these big companies, right? The Max 7 that are that are leading the way and a lot of people expect that or some people say that's a bubble that's going to pop at some point due to AI and all the money they're spending and and revenues are getting. But, um, you also did say today we're looking at a potential blowoff top that would include, uh, crypto as well. >> I think that the risk of that still exists and has for a while. I'm not sure exactly what this looks like. Look the problem is that no history it doesn't repeat but it rhymes and if you look at prior market cycles to predict what's going to happen in the future it's not

like past performance is not indicative of future results but I am saying that what we have seen from US equities and from a lot of equity markets right like Korea like it's it's around the world like there's a lot of um very frothy bullish momentum in a lot of the equity markets and just like you know extended valuations and so forth. I'm not saying that that can't keep going, but I am saying that a violent move like the NASDAQ adding $6 trillion of market cap in a matter of days is unusual, right? Like in a month, I think it was like 29 trading sessions, it's up 22%, $6 trillion of capital added. It's just really strong bullish and violent really bullish movements from a lot of these equity markets. If that, you know, you know, corrects and maybe normalizes, maybe it's sustainable. But if it keeps

going like this for another month, like just up only basically, that to me is is symptomatic of of a blowoff top and just like over speculation in the markets. I don't know if that'll happen or not, but there's there's when you see the markets move this violently and this strongly in either direction, uh, you know, you call it a crash, you call it a blowoff top, you call it whatever you want. I'm not saying that we're going to like, you know, drop 80% on any of these equities, but, you know, we're seeing a lot of frothy price action. And I don't know where that stops because look, if Bitcoin does break 85K, you know, flips out into support, not resistance, and then goes up to 100K. Um, you could see a lot of speculation come back into crypto, and you could see a blowoff top

there. And that would, you know, if we make new all-time highs this year, that would basically put us near levels that I was expecting to get to in the the prior bull run. I'm not saying these things are going to happen, but we'll have to see how this plays out. But I I I think a blowoff top looks different in every market. It looks different every time. You could call what we saw in gold and silver a version of a blowoff top. You could call what we're seeing in stocks, depending on where this goes or what happens to it from here. You call that a blowoff top. So, I don't know. It's just a term. It doesn't mean anything specific, but it just it's it's very violent price action. >> It just means things keep ripping a little bit. Why? Why? So, here here's a

question for you. Why are we at all time highs? >> We talk about this so much, but but like like zooming out from everything, forget crypto for a second. like and yes like I just want to know from you why at this point in time is the S&P NASDAQ both like seems like every week or two there's a new potential all-time high despite various factors I could tell you that it should correct or should come back a little bit and um why now like what what is making this happen >> I don't I think it's just that we're still in the midst of a raging bull market like we are in a secular bull market that has not broken or slowed down. The war in Ukraine didn't do it.

The war the conflict with Iran hasn't done it. Like it's just we're in a bull market. So like nothing has changed. All us being equal, things continue unless acted upon by an outside force. You know, the Trump administration made all this big talk about Doge and cutting government spending. They're still on record pace spending for this administration. Um so they haven't reduced government spending. They have passed a big beautiful bill though that has given a lot of tax incentives um and rebates uh to people that has put a lot more cash back into people's pockets and encouraged corporations to do a ton more capex. So that capex spending drives the economy stimulates economic activity.

That's why we're seeing manufacturing PMIs surging to to you know overvaluation or extended valuations above 50. The economy is growing. The economy is booming. They're they're running it hot. So when you run it hot like this and um basically encourage and stimulate economic activity, you get stimulated economy and overvaluations of risk assets. So I think that's kind of been the norm that we've seen. And I think that's just a continuation of the trend. It's not so to me like I think your question is also kind of like why is this happening? It it to me it's just like a continuation of what's been happening and sort of a a bit of a reversion to the norm, right?

The S&P 500, if you look at it, it looks like it's going up an asmmptote. So does the NASDAQ. But if you put it on a logarithmic chart, it looks just like a a straight growing line and it it's kind of corresponding to the fact that it's not really any real value that's being added. It's nominal value. Meaning the dollar denomination of the S&P 500 is what's changing and the dollar is what's getting obliterated. We just saw the dollar cross um $39 trillion or the we saw the national debt cross $39 trillion. >> Yeah. So like the United States is still spending itself out of its mind. A lot of governments are and that's so all these things are just continuations of things that have been playing out and there's such big macro trends. This is this is why I think this is important and why I think the Milk Road macro

channel is so important. There are such large macro trends at play that little things, I mean they're not little, but like things like a war or like a 20% drop in the supply of oil globally are just not big enough to change like tectonic centuries long macroeconomic trends that are playing out. So that's what I think is happening here. But I don't know. We'll see, man. We just got to hang on tight right now. I mean, you did just write a pro report last week, John's first pro report for macro, um, about how basically about how the oil disruption will be and will continue to be worse than many of us are thinking.

And I feel like you kind of tackle these themes in this report, John. Um, both both painting a like positive picture because it's like on one hand it's like, well, the market seems unfased by what you are describing and the major disruption that's to come. We've talked about this every week. We've been doing the show together the last month or two. Um that the shortfall of oil is not something you can just magically replace overnight and that that the consumers are going to feel that and the economy will eventually feel it as well if you look at the stock market. Um but that on the other side on the other hand like despite that we're pushing all-time highs. Um anything else anything else in this report that people should know in case they want to go check it out?

>> I mean I just tried to cover some of these things in here. The two things that I tried to cover in that report, I'm just talking about how scarcity of two major things is driving most of the economic activity we're seeing. Scarcity of energy and scarcity of compute. So that's why you're seeing this huge bull run in semiconductors and this like like unprecedented price action in in semiconductors that's now lifting the rest of the the MAG 7 and the the rest of the the S&P. Um and then you know this energy shortage part of that is is due to the energy demands of AI but it's also due to the supply constrictions that we've seen due to the conflict in Iran. So that's driving a lot of bullish momentum in the markets right now as well. These narratives will shift and evolve. We're going to see I think a

rotation of commodities into agriculture. But this is like kind of down in the weeds for for like macro stuff. But I just want to kind of give some context around that. I don't know if the size of the economic shock from these prices, this like loss of supply of oil is actually going to be that severe. Like it seems like the market is going to absorb this. Like yes, food prices will increase, energy prices will increase, but for the most part, I think that you know in the west like civilized nations are are going to just like pay more for those things and it's going to be a headwind, but it's not really going to break anything. it's not going to stop anything and there's going to continue to be sort of this just large scale secular bull run. Would you would

you say as well John and I'm just thinking about you know even local news here up in the north um that this you know almost like force majour style event which is not it's not exactly that but similar to co it's something it's like well this isn't something that happens normally guys you know this is like a hopefully this doesn't never happens kind of thing we there no way for us to plan for this if you're a company um what ended up happening there is despite there being a lot of disruption to supply lines and profits and all that kind of stuff in the subsequent years, you've seen a lot of companies post all-time highs in profits, right? And despite their prices going up uh and consumer the CPI going berserk and things being way more

expensive, these companies are still making more money than ever before. And to me, I also see it this way, you know, and that might be a reason why the market is also going up that it's like, listen, last time this happened, which was recently, and it's not the same. it's apples to oranges, but it is a similar event of like, listen everybody, the price of everything is going to get [ __ ] up because of this other this thing that happened. Um, I feel like a lot of companies in the in our beautiful capital society take advantage of that to inflate the price beyond even the extra margin that they have to absorb for their oil price or supply disruption as it was in COVID. um that they, you know, naturally double the price when it should only it only needs to go up 30%

so they can pocket margin, but blame it on something that has nothing to do with them. That's just my my, you know, anti- capitalist side talking for a second. But it's also something that we saw play out many times. >> I don't I'm not going to weigh into the details of what you just said. If that's the way you view things, that's that's your opinion. >> You're forced to do the show with me, man. You have to do the show with me. >> Economics is never Economics is never what it looks like. Everybody is able to spend somebody's gouging and somebody's doing this. The the gist of it is we don't have enough oil. Like this morning, this morning the the the ceasefire is over. This morning Iran struck uh the Fujahara um oil refinery, oil reserves of the UAE. The UAE pulled out of OPEC to be able to increase their

production so they could try to recover economically from the effects of the straight being closed. Iran just hit their largest um oil reserves and refining uh facilities. So, I don't know how badly that's damaged. I don't know how badly that's going to impact things. That that could deprive the world of another million and a half barrels of oil a day. That makes this shock even worse. This is just going to continue. This could just continue to escalate from here. And that could make things a lot worse than than we've already forecasted them uh or than they have already been. And you know, you can say like people are price gouging. I don't know even how to begin to assess that in this situation because there's so much uncertainty and there's so much force majour and there's e escalating and ongoing conflicts that's continuing to

drive down the available supply and and put the economy at further risk of of economic um and just resource in general resource shock, energy shock. So yeah, there there's just a lot that I don't I don't really know how to I I I can't like just like outright refute what you're saying off the top of my head here, but like I don't know. There's a crisis. You know what I mean? >> Capitalist love crisis, man. Uh, I'm just going to put it that way. It's true. It's true. That's how you That's things get [ __ ] up. You get to blame. >> That's how an economy works, bro. But that's if you intervene with that. It's like, look, if if everybody wants a gallon of water and there's only a gallon of water, well, yeah, it's it's it's anyway, this is a hotly debated thing in economics. Um, but I I think in

general, you know, we're going to have to give the the jet fuel to the to the countries and the companies that are willing to pay for it. John, uh, one last question that was, uh, and I, this was the lead of of the show today, so maybe I'll have to change the intro because it took us 30 minutes to get around to it. I meant to ask it earlier, but I just love talking to you so much and and giving you all my u, you know, conspiracy theories, my my retail conspiracy theories uh, that I shout on Facebook every morning. Um, it's not true. I put those on threads. Uh anyways, and uh speaking of threads, uh Melvin who is our AI writer analyst, um he asked this morning, "What would you hold for the next 50 years when we're having our creator round table?" Um and you said,

you know, and this was hotly debated, right? Because it's like, listen, you know, crypto people were getting absolutely dragged in the streets because we're holding assets that haven't uh if you zoom out and you look at nothing else, haven't moved in 5 years. Uh meanwhile, people playing stock market, people playing semiconductor stocks, memory stocks are have been laughing if you've been hard in there for for the last like six to 24 months. Um and he asked you kind of on on that premise, what asset would you hold for the next 50 years if you could hold anything? Just so you guys know, before he answered, John paused for like 20 seconds.

>> He had he had to take a couple deep breaths and prepare to unload on Melvin who's not even here. Melvin's not even here. This is I don't look I don't like these kinds of questions because there's a there's a camera and a microphone that are on me. I haven't thought carefully about what I would hold for the next 50 years. That's a very arbitrary and long time horizon. So the answer that might make sense is real estate or gold, right? But another answer that might make sense is Bitcoin, but it also might not make sense in 15 years. So I I don't I don't know. Basically, I don't really invest on a 50-year time horizon, but on a 5 to 10 year time horizon, I I prefer Bitcoin and Ethereum. um on a 50-year time horizon, maybe real estate or gold.

But I don't know. I I I know this is the problem. I I don't know if I could invest on a a fiveweek time horizon in the equities markets because so many of these companies are leaprogging each other in this AI race. And there there's basically not a winner or take all, but at least like a winner take most um kind of like schematic being laid out here. And the game theory on this is like eventually somebody's going to go bankrupt or get absorbed or bought by somebody else. And whoever does that is likely going to have a massive advantage on the other players left in the the race and could squeeze them out. And so it's very risky making any kind of long-term investments around AI in my opinion because so many of these companies view this as existential to

their businesses and they are playing all out to win and they can't all win, right? Like Sergey Bren of Google has said this, Mark Zuckerberg said this down the line, right? So yeah, like I I think that there's a lot of opportunities that don't exist on a 50-y year time horizon, and that's more realistic and more where I what I think about. Um, so yeah, I I I don't really have an investment thesis for 50 years, but for 5 to 10 years, I prefer Bitcoin and Ethereum. >> That's fair. I guess it is conditional. I think every investor has to has to I guess I guess 50 years, yeah, you're looking at more like really long historical things like like housing and gold. I mean, if you ask this question 20 years ago, Bitcoin didn't even exist.

So, it wasn't even something that was possible. So, maybe >> maybe in 10 years there'll be another asset you don't even know about that you want to hold for for five or 50 years. You don't even know. You don't even know what that'll be. >> U great. Well, John, thanks for answering that question. I'm sorry for people listening to the intro and thought the whole the whole episode would be about that that it's only the last three minutes of the show about that part. John, what are you watching this week? What's what what is on your radar this week, both macro and crypto side? There's uh escalating conflict in Iran. I think that's going to be driving a lot of headlines and that's basically >> I didn't know that part.

>> That's it. I Well, I don't know what else to say, man. We had a ceasefire for a while. The ceasefire is over and they're shooting again. So, that's going to that's going to drive a lot of things, I think, this week. Um earnings reports were last week. There's some earnings this week, but they're not going to be as market moving. Um the the Japanese have been intervening in the markets to try to support the value of the yen. if they're not able to successfully do that, we might see rate hikes which could unwind some of the carry trade and be a headwind on markets. So I'm watching that. Uh I don't know. Yeah, but basically to me right now the big things to watch are the big thing to watch is the the current thing which is the straight of hormuz and the conflict with Iran.

>> Actually, you know what? There is one thing I wanted to do before we signed off that was a bit of a fun fun little game which I previewed right before we we John loves this part. So okay, so John and I are doing more of these shows together. There's a lot more to come on that side. Um, but uh, one thing that I was asking him before we started recording was I was expressing to John that I can't believe some of these tokens in the top 100 market cap for crypto. Um, that I was like, how you know? Sure, there's a couple memes in there, memes, whatever. Uh, there's a couple there's some in the top 30 that shouldn't be there. The things you barely even know what they are, but in the top hundred there's definitely some that I have never heard of. And every

time I scroll through this list, I'm like, I'm not even I'm not even going to click on that cuz I don't even know what the hell it is. John really covetss himself as some kind of like buff of these companies and told me that he used to be able to name the founders and the teams and the tokconomics for each of these. But I did stump him a few times. So I figured we need you to do the show live while recording. So John, what I'm going to do now is I'm going to name you >> I don't a token that's in the top 100 and you have to you have to tell me if you know what it is and what it does. Okay? Okay.

>> And if you don't listen, if this is your company and John doesn't know what the hell it is, come on the show. If he if he says your company name and you don't know and and if I say your company name and John's like, I don't know what the hell that is. >> You're you're welcome. Your founder, whoever you are, you're the top has changed a lot since I was deep in the weeds on this stuff. This is >> When were you deep in the weeds? When was this? I mean, I was mostly really deep in the weeds on this in 2021 and 2022, but since we've been in a bare market, there hasn't been like a huge market incentive to like really do a deep dive on a lot of altcoin projects for me recently. Um, so I haven't refreshed in a while, and there's been a

lot of turnover since then. So, uh, things have changed a lot. Let's just put it that way. >> I mean, there are there are some there's things like Worldcoin on here. There's a lot of interesting projects, let's say it. There's a lot of good stuff. I will also say I'm not just saying the top 100 token list is total dog [ __ ] That's not what I mean for anybody listening. There's a lot of great great tokens on here. A lot of great debate to be had of some of them that are overvalued, undervalued uh due to RIP. Uh we'll do another episode or another big chat about chain link at some point soon because John really wanted me to talk about chain link. So maybe we'll save that for next Monday. Um but let's go. Okay, I'm going to Are you ready? I'm going to give you a few random ones

here. >> All right, fire away. >> Siren. >> I'm not familiar enough to to say what they do. I've heard of it, but I don't know what they do. >> Let's Let's pull it up. I just this it's the logo is like uh the cartoon woman who I guess is like a siren like a mermaid. >> Is this the content that people want to see? >> Yes. Listen, it's a it's a it's it's a long week and at the end of your Monday. Okay. So, this is a memecoin on Binance >> and it m and it has a market cap of $574 million.

>> Yeah. Okay. Don't know >> excuse your excuse for that one. Um build dawn. This is definitely another Binance meme coin. There's no way this is a real token. >> I think you're just picking stuff that you've never heard of before. And the >> Yeah, of course. It's called Build on Galaxy. It's from USD1 Launchpad. So, from the World Liberty team from their launch, their affiliated launchpad. So, that that >> has a $455 million cap. John hates this. All right, we're going to wrap it up right there. John can't stand what I'm doing right now. It's a it's a total destruction of everything that he that he believes in. I just feel like look here's my feeling on this is that there are a lot of things that are being tried as experiments and prototypical things

and just entertainment frankly in this asset class and in this space. However, there are a lot of things that are happening that are going to change people's lives for the next, you know, foreseeable future and in really meaningful ways and in the near term. And so I think that that's the important thing to talk about and for people to pay attention to and to educate themselves about, right? So, I'm not like attacking the siren memecoin community in any way, but I am saying that I think that chain link, for example, will be a an essential part of global um just like infrastructure uh information infrastructure and various other kinds of infrastructure related to digital assets for a long time. I think that's extremely valuable. It's extremely misunderstood, extremely underpriced. And I think we're seeing the first efforts by institutions like

Bitwise, Grayscale to go out and educate people around what this asset is, what it does, what the the value is there, the value that it adds. That I think is something that's important to do and something I'm passionate about because a lot of people are, you know, suffering under the problems of financial illiteracy. And this is an opportunity to try to get ahead of this and well not we all we all suffer under the problems of financial illiteracy in one form or another LG. Um but you know I think rather than chasing pumps on meme coins educating yourself about some of these things that are so important um to to so much economic activity and infrastructure for all these uh things that are happening in tokenization and just changes to the global financial

ecosystem. That's really valuable right now and that's what I would like to focus time and attention on. And so that's kind of yeah, that's where I am on this. >> I I think that that's important and I agree. Okay, I'll just put it I agree. People People want the people like the show cuz it's professional and they get a lot of good information from it. I totally agree. I just don't I I don't think you can discount that kind of stuff when you have a Dogecoin that sits at a market cap that's 7 billion more than Hyperlquid. I think that's just you have to understand that it's like there is still there's a cultural element to crypto agree that is a huge part of its entire lifespan. And I don't know what those other two tokens were. Those are just [ __ ] tokens. Um but I I I still

think that >> maybe there's a day where where the top hundred list everything here is at over a trillion dollar market cap or it's at least 500 billion. There's that much value. The total market cap for for crypto is at is is at 150 trillion. So the top crust there is all really great valuable tokens. Or maybe there's a day where a bunch of companies in the S&P 500 are crypto companies. uh many more Coinbases and and well, Robin Hood's not really like that, but uh circles, other companies like that, Galaxies, whatever, crypto affiliated companies as well. Uh and then all that other crap still stays the same market cap, but stay gets kind of bumped down lower on the list. I feel like we should do I feel like we're due for an episode about altcoins. I feel like as let's say if this trend

continues, John, if we continue to see some Bitcoin dominance and we see a Bitcoin uh steadying of price and we stay in this range and go higher, uh I feel like it's going to be good time to to go through altcoins, not just to get insight on what you like and talk about chain link and other stuff and and get the other guys uh on as well. Maybe that'll that's what we'll do this Thursday with our team episode, but I think also to understand some of the stuff on this list, man, because I think a lot of people, they're looking at their altcoin picks. They're thinking like, "Okay, we're going to do a bounceback. people will go to alltime highs this year, next year, the year after, and they look at it and they're like, "Okay, well, I just don't understand why Cardano's here at number

12." You know what I mean? And I think like breaking that down. And nothing against Cardano people. That's not what I mean. But I'm just saying I think as you have another kind of shuffling from bear to bull and whatever, I think it's always worth understanding like what where the value is holding in a lot of places in crypto and what is propping up a lot of these tokens that that people see on the list and that maybe some days they get frustrated, their tokens go down 5% and the the other ones go up 10%. So, um, and again, no knock against Cardono. That's not what I meant. I'm just saying it's something that we don't we don't discuss it very much on the show. Um, and maybe we should. So, anyways, I'll leave it with that, John. >> Yeah, I look, I agree that financial

entertainment is a big part of the the market and I think it's important to pay attention to that, but I agree with you as well. There's a lot of other value in a lot of these other projects and I do think that that would be worthwhile to spend time and attention on that, especially Cardano. So, um, I'm bullish. Yeah, I'm down. >> There you go. Yeah, he's a Cardano bull. A secret Cardano bull. All right, John. Thank you, sir. Um, and let's have a great week. A lot of great episodes coming up on the on this channel this week and on our macro and AI channels. And again, if you want to take a look at John's portfolio, you can pay just a dollar to check it out. Uh, go to Milk Road Pro should be in the link below.

You can see his portfolio, Kyle's portfolio, Martin's portfolio, everyone else's, uh, see what they're buying and selling because there's there's a lot going on these days. There's a lot of people adding things to their watch list. John doesn't do anything, but everyone else makes moves. And uh if you want to see what those are, what those moves are, you can go see it. All right, thanks John. We'll wrap it there. >> Thanks, LG. Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milkro Daily and Pro Newsletters and start investing like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky.

Never invest more than you can afford to lose.