Arthur Hayes: Trump’s Fed Takeover Will Send Bitcoin to $250K Before 2026

Transcript

On the one hand, people complain. I don't like the hyper financialization. I don't like the inflation. But then on the other hand, >> is it going to be one big explosion of exponential debt spiral? Is that the way that this plays out? It >> just is math. I love math. >> He's the maverick of modern finance, co-founder of BitMEX, former Wall Street trader turned cryptovisionary, and one of the most influential voices in digital markets today. Known for his bold takes, deep macro insights, and unfiltered commentary, Arthur Hayes doesn't just predict the future of finance. He helps shape it. >> I think it's really for a lot of people, right? Welcome back to the rule. This is your home to learn from the biggest guests, the brightest minds at the tip of innovation.

>> Our goal is to help spread the collective knowledge of everyone in our community. We are breaking crypto out of its echo chamber and taking it to the real world. >> Sit back, relax, and enjoy it. >> Have you seen 67? >> No. >> The meme? No. >> All right. So, I initially saw 47. There's like there's this Zoomer brain rot meme going on. >> Okay. >> It's 67 >> and it's like there's really no explanation behind it. It's really just a funny thing that like random kids are doing. And so that wasn't that wasn't the uh the intention behind the name 47 for your piece. Okay. All right. Um so after reading through I realized that yeah actually uh 47 is the best hand in presidential poker.

>> Yeah. So maybe you could explain why this is the case, why 47 is the best hand in in president poker. >> Yeah, for you know in the United States of the Federal Reserve, there's two boards that determine monetary policy. There's a Fed board of governors. There's seven members on this board. All our presidential appointees confirmed by the Senate and simple majority wins. So you need four votes out of seven to control that board. What does this board do? It controls the rate at which banks earn interest on their excess reserves. It controls um who gets to lead the different 12 Fed district banks and um it also controls certain banking regulations. And so with control of this board, Trump can take control of the

short end of the yield curve by doing some funky things with the rate at which interest is paid to banks and the discount window. He could also have influence on the other seven members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Um in in every year that ended in a one and a five. So 2026 and February, all 12 district bank presidents are up for reelection. The person who the bank boards elect must be approved by the board of governors. And so if Trump controls this board with four votes, then he can essentially pack the FOMC with people who agree with his monetary policy. the FO FOMC, you need seven out of 12 votes to control that board.

>> Uh, and it controls the rate at which the Fed either and contracts or expands its balance sheet called a system open market account. >> Mh. >> And that's really the most important thing that the and the Fed funds rate. Those are the two biggest things. >> And the simple uh open market account, this is effectively the the quantitative easing. >> Yeah. The balance sheet. >> Yeah. Okay. And so uh by having four in the in the reserve the governors and seven of the FOMC you're effectively controlling the central bank. >> Correct. >> Okay. And so he can enact monetary policy to his wish which his and and we understand his wish is is effectively to pump the brakes out of the market and and win the midterm elections to continue winning Wall Street, winning

Main Street and and pushing his agenda. >> Correct. >> Okay. And so when you're when you're writing through and learning and and sort of understanding um the the situation that is unfolding at the presidential level and the monetary policy level and then you're starting to equate that to to what it means for your bags, our bags. I think you you put it quite succinctly in your piece remain long as [ __ ] So how do you see the monetary policy once Trump has control of it? How do you see that shi shifting into the onchain landscape? How do you see that affecting your bags and our bags?

>> Our bags perform well when there's more fiat created and we have a small asset. It's >> fixed supply asset Bitcoin and obviously there's other cryptos. Fixed supply asset. We have this gargantuan amount of fiat that is has been created and will be created. The faster that goes, the more people run to Bitcoin and crypto. And so if everyone believes that, okay, Trump's got control, you listen to what Buffalo Bill Besson says on television and in the print and he talks about how they want to revitalize America and they want mortgage rates to come down and, you know, everybody gets a house, everybody gets a car, everybody's got a good nice job, all these things, but no one pays any more taxes. So, uh, everybody's got this new amazing life that they didn't have to pay for because there's magic money coming out of the of

the sky provided by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury. Then our job as investors is okay well we know that if you earn a salary you're [ __ ] right you're just going to not make ends meet. So then what do we have to do? We have to find a way to get some sort of financial asset. And previously it was like golden stocks right before crypto. Now we have crypto which has been the best performing asset class. Bitcoin I'm talking about in human history when you talk about the amount of fiat that's been created since 2009. So okay I need to save some fiat. I need to buy some crypto. Hopefully it goes up as there's more fiat created. I know that my salary is not going to go up as fast as dollars, yen, euro, yuan are printed.

And that's sort of the game at the end of the day is what we're trying to do. Mhm. You previously had put out this this piece on Hyperlquid and it was and there's a lot to get into with Hyperlid, but specifically you laid out a valuation heristic for Hyperlid based on the influx of stable coins into the supply and and you said look Buffalo Bill Bessant is poised to to print three trillion put three trillion into stable coins and that is going to equate to this 126x multiple of hyperlquid because more stable coins means more volume means more revenue meets more buybacks.

How do you and so it's a lot of like me it's a lot of math to really walk through that. It do you think the issuance of stable coins is going to lead to and and stay and and work its way into DeFi? I guess that's really the question is what what is the venue in which these stable coins ultimately land and which sectors of the onchain economy are poised to be the most successful as a result of the influx of stable coins? >> I think once you have a stable coin and now you've got a dollar bank account if you're not an American. Now you got a dollar bank account. What do you do?

Okay. Well, I want to earn Fed funds, whatever it is, three, four, five or so, whatever it whatever it ends up being. Okay, I've done that. Okay, cool. >> All right, so more inflation. Got to do something else. All right. So, what else can I do? Oh, there's this thing called Athena. Uh, it's a indogenous yield in crypto. It's usually about two to 3x what you get at treasuries. Okay, cool. I can make a 10 15%. All right. What's next? Oh, I want to go, you know, buy a coffee at 7-Eleven. Oh, well, take your stable coin and, you know, we'll let you spend it offline and using Ether and other other S. Okay, cool. All right. Well, I'm still broke as [ __ ] I mean, making I'm making 10% of my money.

That's great. I'm making better than the bank. You know, I'm not getting depreciated like I was in Argentinian peso or something like that. I've done well, but I still need I need to still need to make more money. Okay, I'm going to speculate. So now I'm going to go to hyperlquid or whoever the dominant deck is at the time and I'm going to trade I don't know dog with hat, Pepecoin, Bitcoin, whatever the [ __ ] I want to trade. I'm going to speculate on everything with high leverage because it's the only way that I can escape this drudgery that is working for a fixed salary that doesn't >> increase as fast as the amount of money that's being printed. And so I think that's what you know this very sad situation that the world is in but this is where anyone who doesn't have

financial assets finds themselves is okay the only way out is to speculate and now I have this new way of speculating that's outside of the stock market which you know is intrinsically rigged against me. >> You might say crypto's written against you as well but I say that there's more opportunity to trade whatever you want however you want in the crypto space versus in the domestic stock markets around the world. And so now people can say okay I've got these stable coins. I literally just connect my wallet and I have this whole, you know, ecosystem in front of me where I can trade these things. I can lend these things. I can borrow against these things. I can do all these different things and hopefully outpace this inflation that's being generated by the powers of be. Let's just dig into Hyperlid a little bit and

and there's plenty more that we can talk about as well. So, Hyperlid, you were a big bull, big Jeff bull on Hyperlid, ran up. You were part of that whole run and then sold off and and actually front ran a lot of the Aster uh shenanigans that kind of started to to pop up with CZ supporting Aster and so I imagine made quite well on that trade. Did when you sold hype and you had you you outlined why you did that with unlocks that are coming up. When you sold hype, did you buy Aster? No. Okay. Um, do you see the rise of pers and per dexes as competitive to hype longterm or do you see I guess what just to make this a real simple question will you buy back

hype? We'll see how they perform against this low to no fee competition and what is the multiple that the industry the ecosystem is going to give on their future revenues right because people love hype because they know that hype makes money and therefore they buy back their token. >> Well, I'm assuming that CZ is backing or you tell me you're probably more in this than I am. Let's assume he is, right? >> He's an adviser. >> Why? Why would he do that? Right. Well, you know, Hyperlquid as more the more successful Hyperlidqu gets, the less successful Binance is. >> So, Binance makes so much money. And so, okay, well, you only exist because you give 97% of your revenue back. So, let me take your revenue to zero.

>> See how you know adamant your community is to use this solution versus mine is zero fee. We're offering the same product. It's not like there's not that much difference in in the perex. Yeah, you could say the latency is this or that, but who know retail people won't give a [ __ ] >> I give you Zafree. I give you a new shiny token to trade in the B B&B ecosystem. Look at what I've done to all these other shitcoins. Um, irregardless of whether they're value or not. >> And so, okay, >> hat over to you, Hyperlicker. What are you going to do now that you have no revenue anymore? What's the new thing that you're going to be able to charge somebody for when I'm just going to give this for away for free? Because I don't care if Aster makes any money or not. I

just want you I want my Binance to stay very very profitable. So I think again I don't know how or if they're going to overcome this. I just see that there's a northstar of there's going to be all these stable coins there be all these traders whoever's still around the next >> two to three years they got to kill it >> but you got to make it through this you know troth of making no money >> right >> the wait is over the Talis test net is live be part of the revolution join now at testnet.talis.network network. Habachi provable. Trade pers with speed and security. Earn rewards. Visit hibachi.xyz.

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Um, that reminds me of this concept called commoditize the compliment. I I forget the origin, but the essence of this is effectively look, Binance and to to your point, CZ has this this juggernaut in Binance. And so he sees this this uh competition coming from the deck space. Well, if you can make the deck space really really cheap, you effectively cut out Hyperlid's legs from under him and protect his golden goose and Binance. And so that's effectively the strategy that it sounds like CZ is employing with Aster. Um, okay. So you you also were running BitMX and so you have deep experience in the perk space.

Do you think the where do you think this landscape is headed as far as do you generally see perpetuals as this 0ero to one we're going to integrate into into traditional finances? this is going to be one of the more uh it already is in crypto but one of the most popular venues to be trading and and have price discovery >> I think because traders want leverage and in traditional finance it's very difficult to get high leverage I'm not a big trader in and stratifi but I you know listening to people talk about like there's I mean I think in the US there's something called a pattern day trader you trade too much your brokers oh your pattern day traders they shut you off right so you do all these different things you're not breaking any laws or anything you you get less access to

leverage and around the world. Certain regulators don't like you to have leverage. Um, so then you're forced to do these like zero day options and all these other funky strategies >> which are essentially, you know, you're just handing value to the market makers and to the large banks because you don't the product. What you really want is a very highly leveraged what we call the delta 1. So like you make, you know, 1% in your money versus 1% move in the price of the asset. You just want to have leverage on that. So the perpetual is this perfect way where the exchange can operate these socialized loss mechanisms. The customer understands that if at a certain price I might not get the full payout because the exchange doesn't have enough money to cover all the the leverage bets they have. I'm cool. I accept that as a cost, but in

return I get this instrument that lets me bet with high amounts of leverage on anything that I want to trade. >> Okay. >> And I think that is revolutionary for a retail trader >> versus what's in Tradfi which you don't this isn't the way it's operated for, you know, various reasons. And that's why I think it's a zero to one moment. Okay, retail gets what they They want highly leveraged trading. They don't want to trade zero day options and all this other funky stuff. They just want plain vanilla. Give me a futures contract delta 1 exposure and give me to me high leverage. And this perpetual thing makes a lot of sense because it looks like I'm trading on margin. And I understand I understand margin trading.

>> Yeah. And generally we're encroaching on this hyper financialized world where more and more people are taking control of their own money and they're also taking control of what they're doing with that money. Not just saving it. They realize what you were describing with high inflation and they're putting it to work and they're trying to make more with their money. And so what what you're saying, you're describing this world where people do this and they want leverage and they're continuing down this track. What do you just in general zooming out just for one moment like what do you think of this hyper financialized world? What like what do you think this is beneficial for society as a whole?

>> I think it's really [ __ ] for a lot of people, right? Um but I think on the one hand people complain I don't like the hyper financialization. and I don't like the inflation. But then on the other hand, they're apathetic politically. They don't they show up and they vote for the same guys and gals who are [ __ ] them every single election. Um or they support a particular authoritarian leader or whatever it is that is operating on a fractionalized system. So, you know, on one hand, it's it's not really great that everyone's turned into a speculator because they their salary is not keeping up with inflation. But on the other hand, you have to take responsibility. we as the people saying, "Okay, well, if we don't like this, then let's re run all these people out of power and let's have a new

more equitable system which isn't based on inflating fiat assets." >> I don't even know what that system would be. >> I don't know what it is either, but like you've you've talked about that that is the only function of government is to print the money. >> That's it. >> You mentioned a couple other other uh projects that that you've invested in at Malstrom. Ether we've also invested in on our at our uh our fund. Um, we also have seen the rise of other neo banks like plasma. So when you're looking at the neo bank uh category, do you think it's crowded? Do you think etherfine, plasma can these all coexist and do quite well together? Or do you think this is a winner take all or winner take most market?

>> I mean there's however many thousands of banks out there. So I don't think it's a winner take all market yet. I think there's lots of space to experiment in like you know what distribution methods the type of products that you want to offer the type of customer service that you want to offer which segment of society are you going after so it's an open field right now and I think there's going to be a lot of successful companies in this space because this is the first time in which it's you know able to run a profitable crypto neo bank where I can actually spend my my money off offline >> to to the point you made earlier there's plenty of functions that that these neo banks can now tap into and they can offer that retail audience Um I I want to kind of circle back to

one of the original points about the 47 Trump cooking the Fed literally with Lisa Cook like and you kind of walked through how you know in order to get four four is going to pave the way to seven but ultimately it needs you need four and you have two out of the four that desented in this last meeting and then you have one that unexpectedly resigned and and so now it's kind of all down to Lisa Cook and if she is removed then it paves the way for Trump to introduce the fourth out of this out this seven. So you have outlined this growth of stable coins and how that translates to higher crypto asset prices in the long run. 2027 I heard you talking on stage and 20 2028 there's lots of things that are expected but thinking a little bit more about the

near term. What do you think is the timeline for Lisa Cook to get cooked and for Trump to take control of monetary policy in the US? >> I think it's before the end of the year. I think the pressure will intensify on her. I think there's a I don't know the timeline. I think there's a Supreme Court decision of whether or not she has to resign in advance of this court case um that she has to fight assuming the DOJ charges her with mortgage or some sort of bank fraud, right? So, we're you know, we don't I don't know when that decision is. I think it's imminent, but I imagine that there is a political calculus and at some point, you know, >> whether she's guilty or innocent is irrelevant at this point. This is all politics.

>> What is she going to get promised in the back end to sort of step down and exit stage left? And so once once that happens and once Trump has four out of seven and then ultimately he can he can put seven out of 12 on the FOMC you kind of you you outlined look there's things like lowering the the interest on res on banking reserves there's things with the discount window there's things with deregulation what is the path like what do you think are is the domino effect for each of those things to take place and is there a timeline or can can Trump sign an executive order how how do these things get enacted once he has control of the the uh federal board of governors and and the FOMC.

>> So in the 1940s, obviously the US entered a war pretty much overnight, the Fed said, "Okay, we're going to lower rates to, you know, 38 of a percent on the T bill. We're going to cap rate to two and a half%." So again, a politician can declare exit in circumstances for whatever reason, right? And so there's so many things that Trump and Besta could use as an excuse for America being at risk and therefore the Fed is justified in combining with the Treasury and fixing the money supply and doing all these things, right? So, you know, whatever war they want to pull out of their hat or whatever crisis they want to create, they're politicians. This is what they do. So, I don't think it's that it's that difficult. You just see the votes and then it's just a rubber stamp.

>> And so, what they're going to do is they're going to uh they're going to steepen the yield curve. And so steepening the yield curve is going to bring the the near end down. And would it push the long tail of the yield curve up as well to make >> both steepening? So yes, this yield curve steepens, but every rate decline declines from where it is currently. >> I see. And so they're going to do that in order for uh some of the regional banks to start to deploy more money and loans into the heart of the of of America. they're they're going to prioritize Main Street over Wall Street effectively. And so on once they start to move credit and credit creation and and uh economic growth out of the hands

of the Fed and put it more into these regional banks, that is where the money supply is going to stem from. Is it going to take longer for money to ultimately make its way through the supply and and ultimately land itself in into the hands of hard assets? Or I guess what I'm asking here is like when money's moving through the system and right now it's being printed at the Fed. That's kind of this one scenario. The other scenario is getting printed at regional banks. How does how do those two different scenarios how does money move differently in those two scenarios?

So with the Fed, money moves basically, you know, through the large money center banks to financial players um or large corporates, right, who have access to institutional corporate debt markets or, you know, a private equity firm who is the ability to borrow to lever up an existing cash flow stream. So no new cash flow streams are created. I just have access to credit from the Fed and the banking system and therefore I'm going to lever up an existing cash flow stream. So no one new gets hired, no new economic growth, nothing like that. So the money multiplier is very very low. the average person doesn't you know receive any credit but in this situation I call it QE for poor people when the regional bank is lending to a theme or you know an industrial firm right they're creating this new loan creates a new business they're going to build a

new factory or start a new product line they need to hire more workers those workers get paid those payments go into the banking system and so the money multiplier is ultimately higher g nominal GDP grows grows faster and obviously inflation uh grows along with it >> and so you get a faster expansion in the money supply you get a faster faster expansion in economic growth and you get a faster acceleration of inflation and that's what drives you know assets higher and so but from the government perspective their debt to GDP declines which is what it did from 2020 to 2022 when you know Trump and Biden did this policy for a little bit >> blockchain shortcuts templates and widgets launch without friction for builders by builders visit enso

relay Low fees, lightning speed, and the power of multi-chain at your fingertips. Instant multi-chain payments. Choose any token on any chain. 75 plus network supported. More than 5 million users, 8 billion plus volume processed, 70 million plus transactions, fast, reliable, everywhere. Start swapping today only on relay. And this is effectively the the Ray Dallio and I think Besson as well have have put this 3 I3 model out there where they want to get uh debt to GDP down to 3%. They want to get uh GDP increased but to 3% or more which I think is already there and then they want to get um there was one

other 3% >> boil or something I remember I remember what it was. What what's your take on do you think this is ultimately healthy for the American economy to be going and and doing yield curve control and putting more lifeblood into the heart of of America and more into these regional banks? Is this ultimately healthy for the American empire or do you think they're they're just perpetuating the system? >> It depends on who you are, right? So, if you are a person who's going to benefit financial financially asset wise in this scenario, this is great for you. um this this situation if you are someone whose salary is not going to keep up with the inflation that's generated by running the economy hot then this is terrible uh situation for you so I guess it's you know depends on who you are what kind of

assets that you have but in general you know if you take a look at China and some of the North Asian countries who've run a similar sort of policy the real uh after savings earnings of the savers who put their money in the domestic banking system vastly underperform the growth in the economy and so you know that's why you have the central banks with trillions of dollars of quote unquote savings. That's the wealth of the people that they didn't allow them to spend. And so >> depends on where you fall in the sort of uh the common good versus the individual and all the sort of philosophical points of whether you think this is a good thing or a bad thing.

>> I see. And this I I wanted to also cover something that you put at the very beginning of of your 47 piece which was Buffalo Bill Besson's plan to re-industrialize America and attempt to force stall the inevitable decline of Pax Americana from a quasi empire into a purely powerful nation st state is nothing new. The inevitable decline of Pax Americana is something that caught my attention. Why do you think it's inevitable the the decline of the American empire? >> Because it's based on a gross imbalance, right? If you look at Germany and France essentially were political creations of the United States after World War II have grown grown extremely wealthy by being able to export their goods that were financed by America initially, not

anymore back to the American market, but American firms cannot sell their goods essentially in those markets. And so obviously this system creates a lot of gross inequality on both sides and that's going to you know it's going to change and only it's just going to go back the other way. Yeah. >> So, it's inevitable that the thing that, you know, made America great, which was, okay, well, everyone blew themselves up and America had, you know, 50% of all manufacturing capacity and ran and everyone wanted to own dollars back in the 1950s and60s. That can't last forever if, you know, you've built up the rest of the world. And so now things have to reverse. So, it just is math. I love math.

Um, and so stable coins as as a way of of broadening and burgeoning this dollar suprem supremacy, is that not going to continue to bolster America? Like the the the dollar homogyny that they're spreading to people on the fringes of of the world with stable coins. In in my mind, that would that would say, okay, well, we're going to continue to to substantiate and uh entrench the dollar into the global financial world. It's going to essentially cement America's uh place in geopolit politics. But you're saying no, it's inevitable that they're going to just flip and and become just another regular nation state. Why do you think stable coins are not enough to cement

America's place in the world? When you have $35 trillion or whatever 20 trillion dollars of marketable debt and um you're not growing as fast as your interest payments, then mathematically you cannot escape that. I don't care how many stable coins you have. Like great, you've dedization was slowed. But you know, if I'm Saudi Arabia or China or Japan or Germany on a net basis, I don't really want to own a treasury. I want to own gold or I want to invest back in my own country because I have to be accountable for my people for this change in the uh architecture of trade. Cool. It's great that you got a bunch of poor people around the world to have a dollar and maybe that's a few trillion more and they buy some some you know tea bills but they got to refine refinance it every 3 to 12 months like it's not

the end state that you want to be in. Um and especially if your debt load is growing faster than your economy like exponential math doesn't give a [ __ ] about anything else but exponential math. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That that is math. What is the the mechanics of this deterior deteriorization of America as it plays out? How do you see this playing out? Is it going to be one big explosion of of uh exponential uh debt spiral? Is that is that the way that this plays out or is it kind of a slow unwind that of the American empire? >> Really depends. But at the end of we don't care as crypto holders because we know the math. We know that the debt load will go faster. And what did people do in history? Either they do it some sort of debt jubilee. So the American

political class could say, "Okay, we're just going to cancel all the debts. We're not going to pay back the foreigners. We're not going to pay back people in, you know, asset holders as well." Okay, >> there's costs and benefits to doing that. Or we're going to inflate away the debt, right? Run Q for poor people and let get the debt to GDP down. That's what they did after World War II. That's also an option. So there's different paths, but at the end of the day, you don't want to own bonds. And if you have the ability, you want to be selling dollars and owning a hard asset like Bitcoin or gold >> just on gold, right? So, another financial engineering point here to to uh escape this debt jubilee. We have a bunch of hypothetically supposedly we have a bunch of gold sitting in Fort

Knox that is still valued at like N bucks or whatever. >> $422. >> $42.22. Why don't we revalue the gold to erase a lot of our debt? >> So, I mean, I guess I read an article this this morning something like the market value of US debt, assuming that it's there, something like a trillion. So, you know, the Congress in the United States decided to revalue the gold to whatever it is, $3,800 an ounce, then there would be a trillion dollars deposited with the Treasury, and they could go do whatever the [ __ ] they wanted to do with that money. So, that's essentially a devaluation of of the dollar. And obviously, you could imagine that there could be a lot of market stress because that's the United States government admitting that the dollar is

not really worth this much money. And so if you own a Treasury bond like a 10 year 20-year Treasury, what happens to that market? Does does the 10ear still trade at like 4.14% or whatever it is today or does it trade up to like 10% or does it cause a market dislocation? So I think there's a lot of unknowns in terms of how the market statistically the US Treasury market reacts to the emperor admitting they have no clothes, right? Which is what would happen if you did this massive devaluation. Yes, the Treasury gets this great one-time accounting gain of a trillion dollars that they get to spend uh on different sorts of things, but it's the United States admitting that the dollar is not worth uh that much.

>> I see. >> And so, again, who knows? Maybe nothing happens, maybe something happens. And I think that's what probably gives Besson and Co. pause. This is probably the last option that they'd like to pursue uh in terms of what they would do with uh the market. And unfortunately, the United States doesn't mine that much gold. China mines lots of gold. They would love this to happen, right? Because the Chinese people have been loading up on gold since 2008. They've, you know, encouraged to by the insurance companies, by the banks to go instead of, you know, if you don't want property, you don't want stocks in China, okay, you can buy some physical gold.

>> And we're okay with that as a Chinese government because it's real real wealth to us. And we believe that the United States um at some point is going to have to admit that the dollar is a piece of trash and do some sort of massive devaluation. And that massively helps the yuan because the Chinese people have so much so much gold. So again, there's a lot of geopolitical market questions around doing this. >> So I think it's a last resort for them. >> Got it. Okay, we only have a few minutes left. So I want to get into some of the more exciting things, the price predictions, right? The 3.4 million dollars for one bitcoin by 2028. So when when we're increasing the amount of liquidity in the system, this is ultimately what gives way to this this sort of prediction. 2028 is a long way

away for a lot of people. You even put yourself out there when it comes to predictions more than really anyone else. So kudos for that. When you're when you're thinking about this in more of the short term, how do you think we're going to get there? What do you think by the end of 25 26 27 ultimately to get to 3.4 million by 2028? >> I have no idea what the price is going to do in the short term. I mean, I think I have a $250,000 end of year price target. >> Is that still your price target? >> I think I think we could double um going into the end of the year. My concern is, okay, well, from a political standpoint, uh, a lot of this depends on Senate confirmation in the United States. And if you look at Steen Moran, which is the most recent board

governor, uh, confirmed by the Senate, it was by one vote. So, it's very, very tight for team red Republicans to get their people through >> team red. >> Uh, and so I am operating under the assumption that team red loses to team blue and November 2026, both Senate and the House possibly. Yeah, mom is certainly giving >> which means that if Trump does has anyone who needs to be approved on any of these supervisory or boards, it better happen before then. >> And so my thesis will be more validated if obviously Jerome Powell be off the uh chairmanship in May of 2026. Does you know how do the elections go with these board governors um and the district banks? Can he get cook fired by that point? And so once he gets all these

people pieces in place then I think it's it's going to be crazy nuts time because then you know obviously Besson's on board then you have the Fed uh now you have control of the banking regulations so you can deregulate the banks you have control of the mortgage market so there's I don't know the the amount but there's like something >> single digit or tens of trillions of dollars of home equity locked in American homes and if you lower the rates they're going to spend the money >> especially if the federal government is underwriting these loans. So the housing market could be used to juice things even further. Again, you need control of certain agencies to be able to do this.

I think by mid 2026, if we're going to get this money printing bonanza, team Trump needs to have gotten all the people in place. Yeah. Because post then I think it'd be very tough for them to, you know, beat the Democrats just because people don't like him. Half the country hates Trump and so what? The thing the other direction. >> Yep. That's the the way the pendulum swings. What team are you on? We got team red republicans, team blue. >> I'm on team Satoshi. >> Team Satoshi. Let's go. Let's go. I'm on that team, too. Let's go. All right. Um, what else do you What else do you find most exciting in the space? Like, I'm You rip through these questions, which is great. I love having you on the show.

It's always an absolute blast. What What do you find most entertaining about the space? Most exciting. Next time you come on, what do you want to talk? What's your next piece going to be about? >> Uh, my next piece is going to be about uh France exiting the euro and a multi-t trillion dollar bailout by the ECB. And that's what I'll be speaking about in a few days uh at to 2049. So I am giddy with excitement that Europe is going to I think be able to unshackle themselves from the euro because I think it's an abomination in terms of restricting the ability of the people to express themselves and it's going to be quite interesting to see what the uh ECB does to try to forstall this this situation.

>> Okay. So France unshackles itself from the euro. The rest of the European Union is still beholden to the euro. >> Maybe maybe not. Who knows? But from from our perspective as crypto, what do we know when h when something systemically happens? We know that the central bank print. So the ECB has not been very has not restarted quantitative easing because um Christine Lagarde wants to control all these national governments. And so her thing is I am in control this I'm an unelected bureaucrat in control of the central bank, but you need my money to keep your bond yields in check uh to fund your national deficits. So you do what I say and you elect who I want you to elect. So Marine Le Pen, you go to jail. um you know we don't allow certain politicians to uh succeed in elections because you know

they would want more sovereignty for their state versus sovereignty to Brussels and Frankfurt but France is broke. They're too big to fail but too big to bail out. And so the French fiscal situation is such that I think it's going to force the ECB to print now or print later. Uh maybe the euro survives, maybe it doesn't. It doesn't really matter. I don't care. It's all Bitcoin doesn't give a [ __ ] But we know the ECB has to print so that they can survive because if France leaves and if Germany leaves the Euro there's no more Euro and no more Euro no more ECB and all those [ __ ] don't have a job anymore. So they're going to be maximum Europe to keep their own power and to do that they're going to have to print money and so but France is the lynch pin

that's going to force them to come back to the table and restart QE and print trillions of euros to keep themselves in power um possibly. >> Okay. And so as France has to uh they they have Wow, Arthur, you break my brain, dude. >> You have to read the air. >> I will. I will watch a token on stage, man. >> Okay. All right. So, they're going to have to print. Uh otherwise, uh France is cooked, but they're they have to keep France. They don't want France to go anywhere, and they want to keep their own jobs. So, they have to print in order to control.

>> That's my thesis. >> Yeah. Okay. >> Makes sense. I'll read the piece when it comes out. >> Thanks so much, man. Absolute pleasure. Yeah. Yeah.